Adult Basic Education Trends and Changing DemographicsCouncil for Basic Skills April, 2014

Prepared by David Prince and Tina BloomerPolicy Research

• The Trends in Adult Basic Education Enrollment (ABE) and Achievement

• The Changing Demographics and Implications for Increasing Educational Attainment and Meeting Employer Demand

• Questions/Discussion

Today's Agenda

System Annual FTE Enrollments by Course Intent

Academic Vocational Pre-College Adult Basic Edcuation

58,36751,831

13,205

23,899

65,541

52,339

14,764 19,734

62,719

50,247

13,66519,912

Annual State FTE Enrollments - Course Type

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

• Colleges enrolled 146,542 State FTES- 5% above their funded level.• Academic, vocational and pre-college FTES continue to decrease from their

respective recession year peaks. • Adult basic education FTES has continued a downslide from a peak in 2008-09.

System Fall FTE Enrollments by Course Intent

• Colleges enrolled 128,757 state funded FTES• It’s still projected that the colleges will end the year above the state funded

level, but the FTE decline will continue as the economy recovers. • FTES declined across all course content areas. • State FTES declined in adult basic education at 21 colleges.

Academic Vocational Pre-College Adult Basdic Education

58,46949,950

14,75319,764

56,878

44,600

13,841 17,241

55,831

43,172

12,749 17,005

Fall State FTE Enrollments- Course Type

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Federally Reported Adult Basic Education Students

• The ABE system served 53,425 federally reported students in 2012-13.• This was a decrease of 1751 students from the prior year and a

decrease of 12,181 students from the peak in 2009-10. • Enrollments have declined in every institution type.

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

56,385 57,406 54,424 48,625 47,654

6,046 5,775 4,477 4,573 3,850

2,551 2,425 2,4911,978 1,921

Federally Reported ABE Students by Institution Type

Colleges CorrectionsCommunity Organizations

I-BEST Enrollments

Headcount FTE

1,273 1,534 1,764

2,042

I-BEST Fall Enrollments- All Funds

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Student Achievement Initiative 2.0.

Points and Points Per Student

Impacts on Total College Achievement

Points from Transitions

Achievement points are awarded to ABE students when they demonstrate significant gains on CASAS Post Tests

College Corrections Community Organization -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5 74,651

8,067 3,116

1.6

2.1

1.6

Basic Skills Points and Points per Student by Institution Type2012-13

Basic Skills Points Points Per Student

• In 2012-13, ABE students in all institutions earned 85,834 total points.

• Corrections students went the “furthest/fastest” based upon points per student.

Student Achievement Initiative 2.0 Important Changes for ABE.

Year ABE Students Basic Skills Points

Total SAI Points Earned by ABE

StudentsTotal SAI Points

All Students

Total SAI Points Earned by ABE

Students as % of All SAI Points

2011-12 48,493 80,974 88,288 361,715 24%2012-13 * 54,513 73,445 *118,419 *515,007 23%

2011-12 - Last year for original SAI point metrics

2012-13- First year for revised SAI point metrics, following yearlong system review and CCRC external evaluation* Includes Current ands Former ABE (past two years)

Responding to CCRC evaluation and the system review, the SAI revisions included important changes to ABE point metrics and students.• Changes the focus from only earning basic skills points to earning points and earning additional

points (transitioning beyond ABE and next year retention). • Includes weights that provide incentives to colleges to transition ABE students.• Keeps the ABE mission important to SAI by protecting the share of total points earned by ABE

Current and Former ABE Students Transitioning to Pre-college and College Courses

Adult Basic Educa-tion_Combined

ABE/GED ESL

12%

19%

5%

13%

20%

4%

13%

21%

4%

% of Current and Former* ABE Students Transitioning Increased in 2012-13

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

• Students have at least 3 years, including the current year to be counted as a transition.

• The transition of ESL students is challenging to capture, as a number of them move to higher levels of ABE after completing ESL level 3.

• Notwithstanding this practice, it is still more difficult to transition ESL students compared to ABE/GED.

• Transitions are included in the Governor's dashboard for Results Washington. The target goal is 15% by 2017.

*Former includes students who were ABE in the previous 2 years.

In 2012-13, 6,898 ABE students transitioned into pre-college and college level programs. Has I-BEST and the focus on transition influenced colleges to develop other practices? If so, what can we learn from the alternatives?

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Current and Former ABE Students Who Earned Points Beyond Basic Skills in 2012-13

Students Transition Points EarnedCurrent and Former I-BEST 2,788 12,234 Current and Former ABE- Total 6,898 32,740 I-BEST as % of total 40% 37%

• ABE programs are using I-BEST strategies (team-teaching, contextualized instruction, cohort learning, etc.) in the way they are approaching instruction.

• The combining of ABE and ESL with two instructors is also becoming more and more common.

• What can we learn from these practices to continue the increase in transitions?

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Changing Demographics 2010-2030

Highlights• Key college age populations (15-44 years) will increase 12% between 2011 and

2030. 15-19 year olds will grow by 8%, while 20-44 year olds will increase by 13%.

• Population growth will be smaller than the growth that occurred in the preceding 20 year period (1991-2010), with marked differences in the growth within age groups.

• If current college participation rates are maintained, population growth will mean a 10% increase in state and Running Start enrollments by 2030, substantially less growth than occurred between 1991-2010.

• There are regional differences in population growth due to demographics such as educational attainment, race/ethnicity and the number of limited-English speakers.

• Future skill requirements needed for employment will demand substantial growth in long-term certificates and 2 year degrees.

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The change in population growth will be smaller in the next 20 years.

15-19 Years 20-44 Years 15-44 Years

45%

11%15%

8%13% 12%

Population Change 1991-2010 and 2011-2030

1991-2010 2011-2030

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High school graduating classes will be smaller than 2010 peak until it reaches a new peak in 2027.

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To meet demand for sub-baccalaureate workers (prof tech and academic students who go directly to work) , CTCs will have to complete 46,000 to 55,200 students every year from 2016 to 2021. The completion target increases substantially in 2025 and again in 2030.

2016-21* 2025** 2030**

Total Annual Completions Needed for Post Secondary 100,856 – 129,526 148,800 177,000

Mid-level Completions Needed 55,532 – 66,049 78,500 90,000

Total CTC System Completions 46,105- 54,836 65,200 77,600

Growth over 2016 average of range34% 59%

*This is from 2013 A Skilled and Educated Workforce (Joint Report). The low range is the entry education level (BLS) and the high is the competitive education level (ACS).**Extrapolated by SBCTC staff from 2021 going forward.

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• Much slower enrollment growth, especially among new high school graduates. Will there be increasing competition for young adult students, including with universities?

• Most growth occurs with people of color and 35-44 year olds. What will be the impact on outreach and access strategies?

• Growing gap between employment demand and CTC supply (10% enrollment growth, 59% employment growth). Can’t meet economic demand with population growth. How will access be improved for place bound, working adults without college credentials, basic skills needs?

• Greatest growth needed in ABE and workforce training. How will this impact mission mix and funding?

• More older students. What focus will be needed on acceleration and competencies?

• What focus will be needed on retention and student completions?• How will enrollment accountability or student achievement accountability be

impacted?

Some Implications

Questions/Discussion

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