ADSP Essay Assignment

7/29/2019 ADSP Essay Assignment

1/25

GOH KENG SWEE

COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE

43rd COMMAND AND STAFF COURSE

ADSP Individual Essa Assi!n"#n$

Su%"i$$#d %&

''43(3)**

25 pages, including cover page

3+3+ ,-rds .#/0ludin! 1--$n-$#s2 #ndn-$#s2 %i%li-!ra5


2/25

Mar6#r7s R#-r$

G#n#ral I"r#ssi-n&

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

D#$ail#d C-""#n$s&

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

Grad# A,ard#d&

Grad#


3/25

Assignment Submission Declaration

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

Name:

Matriculation No: 43037

Title: Individual Essay Assignment

Course and Code: ADSP

LecturerTutor: Assoc Pro! "ernard #oo $ Assoc Pro! Alan %&ong

Submission Date: 23 April 20'2

!ee" a Co"# of the AssignmentPlease ma(e a copy o! your )or( I! you &ave su*mitted your assignmentelectronically also ma(e a *ac(up copy

$lagiarism and Collusion

Pla!iaris"&to use or pass o!! as one+s o)n, t&e )ritings or ideas o! anot&er )it&outac(no)ledging or crediting t&e source !rom )&ic& t&e ideas are ta(enC-llusi-n&su*mitting an assignment, proect or report completed *y anot&er personand passing it o!! as one+s o)n -as de!ined in t&eNTU Honour Code See)))ntuedusg.sao.&ome!or t&e /niversity onour %ode and Pledge1

$enalties for $lagiarism and Collusion&e penalties associated )it& plagiarism eist to re)ard good academic conduct t&ose)&o c&eat )ill *e severely punis&ed to re!lect t&e seriousness )it& )&ic& / vie)sc&eating, and its commitment to academic integrity Penalties may include6 t&ereuirement to revise and resu*mit an assignment, receiving a lo)er grade, orreceiving an 8 grade !or t&e assignment

Declaration

I declare t&at t&is assignment is my o)n )or(, unless ot&er)ise re!erenced, as de!ined *yt&e / policy on plagiarism I &ave read t&e / onour %ode and Pledge&ttp6..)))ntuedusg.&ome.yclai.

Signed999999999999999 Date 99999999999
http://www.ntu.edu.sg/sao/homehttp://www.ntu.edu.sg/sao/homehttp://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/yclai/http://www.ntu.edu.sg/home/yclai/http://www.ntu.edu.sg/sao/home


4/25

Ar# $# r#0#n$ ,#a-n a09uisi$i-n r-0#ss#s in S-u$#as$ Asia 0-nsid#r#d

an ar"s ra0# and l#ad $- $# d#s$a%ilisa$i-n -1 $# r#!i-n:

INTRODUCTION

:ising de!ence spending -e) SIP:I data on international arms trans!ers re!lect arms race

concerns, 20'01 in t&e region during recent years and increasingly rapid acuisitions o! ne)

types o! plat!orms and capa*ilities -"it;inger, Everyt&ing


5/25

*e !uelled *y suc& acuisitions *e!ore descri*ing some o! t&e measures t&at &ave put in place

to mitigate arms competition and rising tensions

#astly, t&e paper )ill conclude *y reiterating t&e arguments against t&e eistence o! an arms

race in t&e region and argue t&at alt&oug& military spending and procurement are increasing,

t&ere are measures to ensure regional sta*ility *e!ore t&e situation spirals out o! control

8or t&e purposes o! de!ining t&e term recent+ in t&e title, t&e paper )ill con!ine t&e discussion

to a !ied period and concentrate on arms procurements made !rom t&e '0s to t&e present

WHAT IS AN ARMS RACE:

&e p&rase arms races+ &as *een loosely used *y sc&olars to denote t&e process o!

competitive arms acuisition *et)een rival nations )&en arms competition+ is per&aps a

more accurate term !or t&e competitive approac&es represented *y !orce increases, military

researc& and development, )eapons production and deployment, and acuisition o! military

tec&nology *y ot&er means -#ong, 'F1G

&ere!ore, in order to provide a systematic analysis o! t&e eistence o! a possi*le arms race

)it&in t&e SEA region, it is use!ul to provide a clear de!inition o! t&e term =ray proposed

!our !undamental criteria to *e !ul!illed in order !or an arms acuisition process to *e

considered to *e an arms race -=ray, &e Arms :ace P&enomenon, '7', p 4'1'6

' &e eistence o! t)o or more rival !actions consciously a)are o! t&eir opposition

' Interestingly, =ray su*seuently reects t&e very concept o! Arms :ace as an eisting p&enomenon in &is later)or(s -=ray, Arms :aces and Ht&er Pat&etic 8allacies6 A %ase !or Deconstruction, '?1


6/25

2 &e organi;ation o! t&eir armed !orces planned in mind to de!eat, or to deter, t&eir rivals

3 &ere must *e competition in terms o! uantity and uality

4 &ere must *e rapid increments in said uantity and uality

ammond+s de!inition o! arms race as an attempt to intimidate an adversary to gain some

political advantage t&roug& t&e acuisition, not use, o! more or *etter military capa*ilityG

!urt&er re!ined on =ray+s conditions o! arms racing *y speci!ying eig&t conditions to *e

satis!ied in order !or t&e process to *e classi!ied as arms racing -ammond, '3, p 3'16

' A primarily *ilateral relations&ip

2 Eac& party speci!ically designates t&e ot&er to *e a rival

3 Intense pu*lic &ostility and resentment displayed *et)een t&e t)o parties

4 Eac& partys military and political planning is directly *ased on t&e capa*ilities and

intentions o! t&e ot&er party

5 Involving constant and etraordinary increments in military spending and arms

acuisitions in ecess o! FJ =P per annum

? Intention to dominate one+s rival *y intimidation


7/25

7 Political and military lin(ages o! state actions *et)een or among t&e rival !orce

structures and strategies

F A !ocus on a speci!ic )eapons environment or plat!orm in relation to one+s rival

e also suggests t&at milder !orms o! rivalry not !ul!illing all o! t&e a*ove conditions *e

termed as military competitionG and t&ose o! a lesser degree to *e considered as ust normal

improvements to a nation+s military capa*ilities

THE ARMS D;NAMIC

"u;an and erring reasoned t&at t&e lac( o! an epression to descri*e t&ese normal activities

o! t&e arms acuisition process &as led to t&e term arms race+ *eing overused and misused

&ey also suggested t&at previous de!initions may not &ave !ully captured t&e )&ole range o!

processes in t&e arms acuisition contet

&ere!ore, *uilding upon t&e a*ove concepts, a compre&ensive t&eoretical !rame)or( )as

introduced K t&e Arms Dynamics+6 encompassing a continuum o! t&e arms acuisition

process c&aracterised *y increasing levels o! intensity, *eginning )it& *uild>do)n+ and

escalating to maintenance+, competition+ and arms race+ )it& t&e latter as t&e most etreme

as illustrated in 8igure '-"u;an $ erring, 'F, pp 7>F'1

8igure ' 6 Illustration o! t&e Arms Dynamic

Main$#nan0# > C-"#$i$i-n > Ar"s Ra0#


8/25

"uild>do)n+ is descri*ed as t&e process o! decommissioning )eapons and plat!orms

perceived to *e more t&reatening to ot&ers and su*stituting t&em )it& less capa*le systems or

limiting t&eir num*ers in t&e interest o! introducing sta*ility

An eample is t&e Strategic Arms :eduction reaty -SA:1 *et)een /nited States -/S1

and t&e /nion o! Soviet Socialist :epu*lics K aimed at reducing t&e total num*ers o! nuclear

)ar&eads as )ell as t&eir means o! delivery in terms o! intercontinental *allistic missiles,

su*marine>launc&ed *allistic missiles and &eavy *om*ers -8rye, 'F31

"uild>do)n can *e seen as one o! t&e instances )it&in t&e arms dynamics )&ere deterrence

and security is traded !or sta*ility resulting !rom an even *alance o! !orces and capa*ilities

)&ere t&ere is no distinct advantage o! one side over t&e ot&er &e same can also *e said on

t&e ot&er end o! t&e spectrum t&at arms races &elp avert &ostilities t&roug& mutual deterrence,

indirectly contri*uting to sta*ility *y preventing an all>out )ar -=ray, &e Arms :ace

P&enomenon, '7', p 771 A!ter all, t&e purpose o! an arms race is to intimidate a rival *y

accumulating, )it&out using, military po)er -ammond, '3, p 351

Hn t&e net level o! t&e arms dynamic scale, maintenance+ re!ers to t&e routine operation o!

t&e arms acuisition process to)ards t&e continuation o! t&e current situation or status uo In

t&is case, t&ere is no speci!ic intent on t&e part o! involved parties to actively compete against

eac& ot&er -"u;an $ erring, 'F, p F01

In a sense, t&e delivery o! %>'30 spares to Indonesia *y t&e /S in


9/25

considered a !orm o! maintenance+, t&e normal up(eep o! its eisting !leet Indonesia+s

transport aircra!ts )ere not deemed air)ort&y due to a lac( o! spares a situation *roug&t

a*out *y /S sanctions implemented in t&e a!termat& o! atrocities committed *y t&e

Indonesian military in imor #este a!ter its independence in 200' -Indonesia =iving Priority

to %>'30 ercules Planes, 20''1

#astly, to complete t&e arms dynamic !rame)or(, competition+ rests some)&ere in *et)een

maintenance+ and !ull>*lo)n arms race+ It re!ers to t&e rivalry *et)een its opposing

participants t&at do not !ul!il all o! t&e a*ove mentioned criteria o! an arms race as de!ined

previously -ammond, '3, p 3'1 and most interactions *et)een potential rivals )ould !all

into t&is category

aving provided t&e arms dynamic !rame)or( !or analysis, it is no) possi*le to eamine t&e

recent procurement processes using t&is ru*ric to determine i! indeed t&ere is ust cause to

la*el t&em arm races+

MILITAR; SPENDING

Hne o! t&e approac&es can *e t&e comparison o! de!ence spending among individual

countries in uestion and ependiture as a )&ole in t&e region &e general trend o! economic

gro)t& o! SEA, up to ?J per annum, &as *oosted de!ence *udgets and increased spending

across t&e *oard -East Asia6 S&opping Spree, 20'21 According to

t&e Stoc(&olm International Peace :esearc& Institute -SIP:I16

Transfers to South East Asia have increased dramatically between the periods 2000

200! and 200"200#$ %ndonesian& Sin'aporean and (alaysian arms imports have


10/25

increased by )!*& +!,* and -22* respectively$ .New S%/% data on international

arms transfers reflect arms race concerns& 20+01$

8urt&ermore, Singapore, accounting !or 4J o! t&e )orld+s total spending on arms imports

-East Asia6 S&opping Spree, 20'21, is t&e only ASEA mem*er

state among t&e international top ten arms importers during t&is period )it& t&e ot&er !our

Asian countries *eing regional po)er&ouses o! %&ina, India, Pa(istan and Sout& @orea

-oltom, "romley, $ Me;eman, 20'01 H*serving t&ese !igures, it )ould not *e too !ar>

!etc&ed to in!er t&at t&e state o! a!!airs in SEA is seemingly on par )it& current tensions

eperienced in t&e India K Pa(istan and ort& K Sout& @orea situations

M&ile it is understanda*le t&at t&e o*served s&arp rise in military spending can *e seen as an

indicator o! a possi*le regional arms race as mentioned in t&e introduction, most de!ence

commentators )ould see t&is development as more o! a !orce moderni;ation programme

-"it;inger, A e) Arms :aceC Eplaining :ecent Sout&east Asian out


11/25

competition Also, ependiture can *e attri*uted to in!lation, upgrading o! eisting

capa*ilities, pay and ot&er &uman resource remuneration adustments, suc& as to pensions or

retirement *ene!its -ammond, '3, p 3F1

M&ile previously clari!ied t&at most o! t&is s&opping spreeG relates more to maintenance o!

t&e status uo and not arms racing per se, some sc&olars advocate t&at t&ese de!ence spending

can *e regarded as a competitive+ reaction to %&ina+s o)n increasing de!ence *udget

-Sismanidis, '51 encroac&ing into t&e realm o! competition+ in t&e arms dynamic

!rame)or(

%&ina+s military ependiture &as gro)n !ive>!old !rom in t&e last ten years -


12/25

-"it;inger, A e) Arms :aceC Eplaining :ecent Sout&east Asian made 8>'5S= advanced et !ig&ters, o!!icially

announced in 2005 as a replacement !or its ageing A>4S/ Super S(y&a)(s -Singapore+s

:SA8 Decides to 8ly #i(e An Eagle, 20'01, can *e compared to similar *uys o! eig&teen

:ussian S/>30


13/25

Indonesia &as a su*marine>operating &istory going *ac( to t&e '?0+s and currently operates

t)o ype 20.'300 *oats )&ic& &ave completed com*at systems upgrades o! its radar, sonar

as )ell as &ull and euipment over&aul in early 20'2 &ey &ave also recently signed a

contract )ort& /SL'07 *illion !or t&ree Sout& @orean %&ang "ogo>class /20.'200s

-Su*marines !or Indonesia, 20'21

As t&e second operator o! an under)ater !leet in t&e region, Singapore+s !our Sormen>class

!rom S)eden )ere delivered *et)een '7 and 200', preceded *y etensive upgrading to

adapt to t&e tropical operational environment )o OQstergtland>class *oat )ere

su*seuently added to t&e :epu*lic o! Singapore avy+s H:"A -Singapore Hrders 2

S)edis& Su*marines, 20051, intended to replace t&e original !our *oug&t initially as !or

training, operational eperience and (no)ledge accumulation purposes -class !ast attac(

su*marines -Oietnams :ussian :estoc(ing, 20'21

Alt&oug& it can *e argued t&at some o! t&ese nations )it& competing interests in t&e Sout&

%&ina Sea -S%S1 are reacting to %&ina+s rising regional domination, t&ese acuisition

processes still !all s&ort o! t&e arm race criteria as t&e rivals &ave not eplicitly e&i*ited any

pu*lic displays o! &ostilities or resentment to)ards eac& ot&er -#oo, 20'01 In !act, %&ina &as

*een using diplomatic c&annels via t&e ASEA :egional 8orum -A:81 plat!orm to engage


14/25

)it& mem*er nations to pursue its claims over t&e Spratly Islands and its EEB in t&e S%S

-aylor, 20'', p '01

3 #and Plat!orms

&e purc&ase o! land )eapon plat!orms, in t&e !orm o! main *attle tan(s -


15/25

more an indicator o! military competition+ rat&er t&an evidence o! somet&ing amounting to

an arms race

Alternatively, some &ave argued t&at internal !actors rat&er t&an eternal pressures can lead to

t&e arms procurement, suc& as !or reasons o! national prestige to signal t&e arrival o! a

particular nation onto t&e international arena or to sym*olise alliances -Spear $ %ooper,

20'01 A case in point is t&e pride o! &aving t&e !irst 30


16/25

8igure 2 6 %ompeting %laims in S%S-Source6 %laire aylor,(ilitary alance in Southeast Asia,-#ondon6 ouse o! %ommons #i*rary, 20''1, p21

Hne o! t&e most contentious issues in t&e region is t&e dispute involving various SEA

countries as )ell as t&e regional po)er&ouse %&ina regarding competing claims over

territories in t&e S%S as s&o)n in 8igure 2 &e Spratly and Paracel islands are regarded *y

"eiing as integral parts o! %&ina+s territory o)ever, "runei,


17/25

-part o! t&e Spratly Islands1 in '74 and


18/25

o)ever, in contrast to t&e unresolved issues over t&e Spratlys and Paracels in t&e S%S, t&is

dispute &as *een settled amica*ly t&roug& preventive diplomacy in t&e !orm o! ar*itration in

t&e International %ourt o! Nustice in 200F -Sovereignty over Pedra "ranca.Pulau "atu Pute&

-


19/25

region -"all, '1 Hn an international level, most SEA countries2are already parties to t&e

Htta)a reaty or %onvention on t&e Pro&i*ition o! t&e /se, Stoc(piling, Production and

rans!er o! Anti>Personnel Personnel


20/25

!or coordination o! military e!!orts to tac(le issues suc& as umanitarian Assistance and

Disaster :elie! operations -&ayer, 20071 &e 8PDA as a security !rame)or(, overlaps )it&

ot&er security structures, does not compete )it& t&em, and contri*utes to regional security

-@&oo, 20001G

CONCLUSION

In summary, t&is paper &as eplained t&roug& de!initions and t&e comparison o! military

spending and plat!orm procurements t&at t&e recent arms acuisitions are not arms racing in

t&e strictest sense *ut more o! maintenance and arms competition )it&in t&e arms dynamic

model

Alt&oug& t&e paper re!utes t&e eistence o! an arms race in SEA, it also recogni;es t&at t&ese

arms dynamics may contri*ute to regional insta*ility *y eploring some o! t&e current

desta*ili;ing territorial disputes in SEA t&at may *e !uelled *y suc& acuisitions and

descri*ed t&e con!idence>*uilding measures, arms control treaties and security cooperation

t&at &ave put in place to mitigate arms competition and rising tensions

o conclude, alt&oug& military spending and procurement are increasing, t&e measures to

limit arms dynamics in t&e region currently seem to *e )or(ing, ensuring regional sta*ility in

SEA &ere!ore, t&e recent arms acuisitions are not arms races and )ill pro*a*ly not lead to

desta*ilisation o! t&e region


21/25

"i*liograp&y6

' Convention on the /rohibition of the Use& Stocc3pilin' /roduction and Transfer of Anti4

/ersonnel (ines and on their 5estruction$-'7, Septem*er 'F1 :etrieved April 22,

20'2, !rom /nited ations reaty %ollection6

&ttp6..treatiesunorg.Pages.Oie)DetailsaspCsrc:EAR$mtdsgTnoUUOI>

5$c&apter2?$langen

2 Sin'apore 6rders 2 Swedish Submarines -2005, ovem*er 0F1 :etrieved April 2',

20'2, !rom De!ense Industry Daily6 &ttp6..)))de!enseindustrydailycom.singapore>

orders>2>s)edis&>su*marines>0'453.

3 Asian Ti'er 6rderin' 7eopards -200?, Decem*er '21 :etrieved April 2', 20'2, !rom

De!ense Industry Daily6 &ttp6..)))de!enseindustrydailycom.asian>tiger>ordering>

leopards>02F?4.

4 ac3'round on /edra ranca -2007, ovem*er 0?1 :etrieved April 22, 20'2, !rom

%&annel e)s Asia6

&ttp6..)))c&annelne)sasiacom.stories.singaporelocalne)s.vie).3053.'.&tml

5 Sin'apore e8uests H%(AS oc3et Artillery -2007, Septem*er '71 :etrieved April 2',

20'2, !rom De!ense Industry Daily6 &ttp6..)))de!enseindustrydailycom.singapore>

reuests>&imars>roc(et>artillery>03F07.

? 9actsheet: (ilestones of (alacca Strait /atrols -200F,


22/25

7 -200F1 Soverei'nty over /edra ranca;/ulau atu /uteh .(alaysia;Sin'apore1&

ivin' /riority to C4+?0 Hercules /lanes -20'', Nanuary '31 :etrieved April

'7, 20'2, !rom De!ense Industry Daily6 &ttp6..)))de!enseindustrydailycom.indonesia>

giving>priority>to>c'30>&ercules>planes>0'545.

'2(alaysia eceives its SU4?0(@(s -20'', ovem*er '71 :etrieved April 20, 20'2,

!rom De!ense Industry Daily6 &ttp6..)))de!enseindustrydailycom.malaysia>receives>

!irst>2>su30m(ms>0333?.Vaerospace>o!!sets

'3(ilitary Ependiture of China$-20''1 :etrieved April 'F, 20'2, !rom &e SIP:I


23/25

'? South China Sea: 9ull UnclosureB-20'2, Set>to>"uy>

:ussian>@ilo>%lass>Su*s>053?.

20 Anderson, = -20'2, Nanuary '31 "rie!ing6 Asia>Paci!ic Emerging

space>malaysian>landing>id/S#2'53F7'2007'022

23 "all, D -'1(ultilateral Security Cooperation in the Asia4/acific e'ion: /rospects

and /ossibilities$Singapore6 Institute o! De!ence and Strategic Studies

24 "it;inger, : A -200?1 Everyt&ing


24/25

27 %ronin, : P -20'01 China=s Activities in Southeast Asia and the %mplications for U$S$

%nterests$Mas&ington6 enry # Stimson %enter

2F 8riedman, = -20'2, )orld>assessing>c&inas>strategy

2 8rye, A -'F3, Decem*er '1 Strategic "uild>Do)n6 A %ontet !or :estraint9orei'n

Affairs ,2& No$ 2, pp 23>3'7

30 =ray, % S -'7'1 &e Arms :ace P&enomenon orld /olitics& ol$ 2!& No$ +, 3>7

3' =ray, % S -'?1 Arms :aces and Ht&er Pat&etic 8allacies6 A %ase !or Deconstruction

eview of %nternational Studies, 323>335

32 ammond, = -'31/lou'hshares %nto Swords: Arms aces %n %nternational

/olitics& +)!04+##+$%olum*ia6 /niversity o! Sout& %arolina Press

33 oltom, P, "romley, '52

37 @o&, S # -20'2, Nanuart 301%ndonesia=s New Submarines: %mpact 6n e'ional Naval

alance Analysis :etrieved April 2', 20'2, !rom Eurasia :evie)6 e)s and Analysis6

&ttp6..)))eurasiarevie)com.300'20'2>indonesiaJE2JF0Js>ne)>su*marines>

impact>on>regional>naval>*alance>analysis.
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/state-world-assessing-chinas-strategyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/14/philippines-warship-relaunched_n_114586.htmlhttp://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-indonesia%E2%80%99s-new-submarines-impact-on-regional-naval-balance-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-indonesia%E2%80%99s-new-submarines-impact-on-regional-naval-balance-analysis/http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/state-world-assessing-chinas-strategyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/12/14/philippines-warship-relaunched_n_114586.htmlhttp://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-indonesia%E2%80%99s-new-submarines-impact-on-regional-naval-balance-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/30012012-indonesia%E2%80%99s-new-submarines-impact-on-regional-naval-balance-analysis/


25/25

3F #ong, 8 -'F1 Steps to %onstrain Arms :aces In " :eid, $ D %arlton,New

Technolo'ies and the Arms ace-pp 3'?>3231 #ondon6 &e 4''1 e) Ror(6 H!ord /niversity Press

45 an, A -2004, Nanuary1 8orce

Documents

ADSP Essay Assignment