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Adolescent and Young Adult Oncology Scientific Meeting 2013. Epidemiology Working Group. Members. Ann Geiger, NCI, Chair Archie Bleyer , Oregon Health and Science University, Co-Chair Ronald Barr, McMaster University Lynne Harlan, NCI - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Adolescent and Young Adult Oncology
Scientific Meeting 2013
Epidemiology Working Group
Members• Ann Geiger, NCI, Chair• Archie Bleyer, Oregon Health and Science University, Co-Chair• Ronald Barr, McMaster University• Lynne Harlan, NCI• Theresa Keegan, Cancer Prevention Institute of California• Denis Lewis, NCI• Brad Pollock, University of Texas Health Science Center at San
Antonio• Lynn Ries, NCI (sends her regrets)• Deborah Vollmer Dahlke, Texas A&M University Health Science
Center
Outline
• General Introduction & Breast: Ann
• Melanoma & colorectal: Theresa
• Leukemia & sarcoma: Denise
• Beyond SEER: Deborah
• Additional Observations & Summary: Archie
• Questions for Discussion: Last Slide
Methods
• AYA = 15 to 39 years old, inclusive
• 2000 to 2010 and subintervals
• SEER 18 (28% of US Population)– Limited publication of population-based, non-site
specific cancer epidemiology focused on AYA
Not Done
• Prevalence
• Stage at diagnosis for children, AYA, and older adults with the same cancers
• Only risk factor information is age, sex, and race/ethnicity
• Interpretation
Caution
• Incidence and mortality rates per 100,000– horizontal x axis shifts
• Trends
• Lots of information – copies of graphs available
Cancer <15 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+Thyroid carcinoma 4.2 4.0 6.2 6.7 7.3 6.0Renal carcinoma 8.2 5.3 2.6 2.6 2.2Colorectal carcinoma 2.8
* Testicular carcinoma 2.0Acute lymphoblastic leukemia
** Breast cancerHepatic carcinoma 5.3 3.6 2.7Medulloblastoma/PNETAstrocytoma***Ependymoma*** 2.7Acute myeloid leukemiaAcute monocytic leukemiaChronic myelogenous leukemiaHodgkin lymphomaNon-Hodgkin lymphomaOsteosarcomaChondrosarcoma -2.2Ewing tumorNon-RMS-KS^ soft-tissue sarcoma 2.3Nasopharyngeal carcinoma 11.0 -3.7Tongue & salivary carcinomaAdrenocortical carcinoma
** Ovarian carcinoma -2.0 -1.5** Cervix uteri cancer -3.1 -2.1 -2.4 -3.8
Melanoma 2.6 4.1Carcinoma of lung -4.9 -2.9 -2.3
<15 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
AYA
Change in Incidence of Common Cancers in AYAs, 1992-2008, SEER131-2% >2%
Increase in IncidenceDecrease in Incidence
Age at Diagnosis (Years)
Cancer <15 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
Acute lymphoblastic leukemiaThyroid carcinomaRenal carcinomaColorectal carcinomaCarcinoma of lung
* Testicular carcinomaMelanomaHepatic carcinomaEpendymomaTongue & salivary gland carcinomaAcute myeloid leukemiaAcute monocytic leukemiaHodgkin lymphomaOsteosarcomaChondrosarcomaEwing tumorNon-RMS-KS^ soft-tissue sarcomaNasopharyngeal carcinomaAdrenocortical carcinoma
** Breast CancerChronic myelogenous leukemiaMedulloblastoma/PNETAstrocytoma
** Ovarian carcinoma** Carcinoma of cervix and uterus
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
<15 15-29 30-44 45-59 60-74 75+
*In males **In females
Age at Diagnosis (Years)
Age at Diagnosis (Years)
* In males ** in females *** excluding non-malignant ^ Kaposi sarcoma
Average Annual % Change (AAPC) in Incidence of
Cancers in AYAs by 15 -Year Age-at-Diagnosis
Intervals2000-2010
SEER18 (28% of U.S.)
APC: 1-2% 2-3% >3%Increase in Incidence
Decrease in Incidence
p < .05AAPC:
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
BREAST CANCERINCIDENCEper 100,000
2001-2010
BREAST CANCERMORTALITYper 100,000
2001-2010
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
BREAST CANCERTRENDS
Overall
Incidence NS
Mortality -3.3
BREAST: Summary
• Incidence rates– Increase with age– Similar blacks and whites– No trend
• Mortality rates– Increase with age– Higher in blacks– Decreasing
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
MELANOMAINCIDENCEper 100,000
2001-2010
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
MELANOMAMORTALITYper 100,000
2001-2010
MELANOMATRENDS
Overall
Incidence
Males -1.5
Females NS
Mortality too low to assess
Melanoma: Summary
• Incidence rates– Increase with age– Higher in women and in whites– Declining
• Mortality rates– Increase with age– Higher in whites– No trend assessment
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
COLORECTALCANCER
INCIDENCEper 100,000
2001-2010
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
COLORECTALCANCERMORTALTYper 100,000
2001-2010
COLORECTALCANCERTRENDS
Overall
Incidence
Males +1.2
Females +2.3
Mortality NS
Colorectal: Summary
• Incidence rates– Increase with age– Modestly higher in males– Increasing
• Mortality rates– Increase with age– Much higher in blacks– Trend?
0123456
3.73.4
5.62.2
2.7
3.02.6
4.42.32.3
3.02.8
3.62.6
2.3
3.53.5
3.93.2
2.8
4.44.44.34.2
4.3
Male
Series1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2.42.2
3.41.81.9
2.12.0
2.81.9
1.6
2.12.1
2.41.71.8
2.82.7
3.42.5
2.7
3.33.4
3.72.5
2.9
FemaleAges 15-19
All RacesWhite Non-Hispanic
White HispanicBlack
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
LEUKEMIAINCIDENCEper 100,000
2001-2010
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
1.11.0
1.80.9
0.7
1.41.3
1.91.2
0.9
1.31.2
1.61.3
0.9
1.41.4
1.81.6
1.0
1.61.5
1.81.9
1.4
Male
Series1
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
0.80.7
1.10.70.7
0.80.8
1.20.8
0.5
0.90.8
1.10.9
0.8
1.01.0
1.21.1
0.9
1.31.3
1.51.2
1.0
FemaleAges 15-19
All Races
White Non-Hispanic
White Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24
All Races
White Non-Hispanic
White Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29
All Races
White Non-Hispanic
White Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34
All Races
White Non-Hispanic
White Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39
All Races
White Non-Hispanic
White Hispanic
Black
Asian/Pacific Islander
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
LEUKEMIAMORTALITYper 100,000
2001-2010
LEUKEMIATRENDS
Overall
Incidence
Males NS
Females +2.2
Mortality
Males -1.4
Females -2.1
LEUKEMIA: Summary
• Incidence rates– Modest increase with age– Female less than male– Possible increase in females, particularly older
• Mortality rates– Modest increase with age– Female less than male– Decreasing, particularly younger females
Ages 15-19All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 20-24All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 25-29All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 30-34All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
Ages 35-39All Races
White Non-HispanicWhite Hispanic
BlackAsian/Pacific Islander
SARCOMAINCIDENCEper 100,000
2001-2010
SARCOMA
TRENDS
Incidence NS
SARCOMA
• Incidence– Occurs across age groups, although still increases
with age– More common in black males (& females)– No trend
OVERALL INCIDENCE: SUMMARY• Thyroid and kidney carcinoma are dramatically
increasing in AYAs and older adults (and for thyroid cancer, also in children).
• Colorectal and testis carcinoma is increasing in young AYAs but not as rapidly as thyroid and kidney cancer.
• ALL was increasing in and only in AYAs, but the trend slowed in 2008 (data not shown).
• Breast cancer may be increasing in young AYAs during the past decade.
• Melanoma declined in older AYAs as did lung cancer and carcinoma of the cervix in young AYAs.
28Bleyer
1 in 59*including “non-invasive”, “benign”, “borderline”
1 in 56
2000-2002 2008-2010
Risk of cancer* from age 15 to 39 SEER18
29Bleyer
1 in 48
2000-2002 2008-2010
Risk of cancer* from age 15 to 39 SEER18
Females
1 in 44*including “non-invasive”, “benign”, “borderline”
30Bleyer
1 in 41
Non-Hispanic White Females
1 in 38 *including “non-invasive”, “benign”, “borderline”
Risk of cancer* from age 15 to 39 SEER18
2000-2002 2008-2010
31Bleyer
Death Rates
32Bleyer
One of 10 deaths in 15-39 year-olds is due to cancer (neoplasms)
2010
1 in 10Same rate since 1988
33Bleyer
One of 14 deaths in 15-39 year-old males is due to cancer (neoplasms)
2010
1 in 14Same rate since 1987
34Bleyer
One of 6 deaths in 15-39 year-old females is due to cancer (neoplasms)
2010
1 in 6Same rate since 1993
35Bleyer
One of 4 deaths due to disease in 15-39 year-olds is from a neoplasm
2010
1 in 4Same rate since 1969
36Bleyer
1 in 5
One of 5 deaths due to disease in 15-39 year-old males is from a neoplasm
2010
37Bleyer
1 in 4
One of 4 deaths due to disease in15-39 year-old females is from a neoplasm
2010
Incidence including Cancers with “Non-Malignant” Behavior
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age at Diagnosis (Years)
Proportion of All Cancer that is not Reported as Malignant,
by Individual Year at Diagnosis, SEER18, 2000-2009
AYA
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
AYAs: 12%-16%
“Non-Malignant”
“Non
-Mal
igna
nt”
Females
Males
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85Age at Diagnosis (Years)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Proportion of All Cancer that is not Reported as Malignant,
by Individual Year at Diagnosis and Sex, SEER18, 2000-2009AYA Females: 14%-22%“Non- Malignant”
AYA Males: 8%-12%“Non- Malignant”
AYA
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Years after Diagnosis
Non-Malignant Behavior (N=21,566)
All Cancer (N=221,793)Malignant Behavior (N=200,227)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Comparison of Survival of All Cancer and of Malignant Cancer, 2000-2010, SEER18
95% C.I.
The 95% confidence interval at 10-years for all cancer is 77.7%-78.2%.
95% C.I.
AYA Cancer Survival Trends
AAPC
All Other CancerBest Prognosis
Annual Average % Change (AAPC) in 5-Year Relative Survival by Age1990-2004
Age at Diagnosis (Years)
010 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
Hodgkin LymphomaMelanomaThyroid CancerTesticular Carcinoma
Except Kaposi Sarcoma and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma
0.630.55
0.21
0.680.64 0.63
0.81
1.45
1.69
1.29
0.85
0.19
0.08 0.11 0.140.22
0.270.20
0.30 0.32
0.46
0.07
0.44
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
-0.1
Beyond Seer: Leveraging and Expanding AYA Data Resources
• Improving data collection: defining key relevant variables and standardizing collection
• Data harmonization/pooling in current and future studies
• Expand capture of population-based AYA cancer epidemiology beyond SEER.
• Access data captured by Electronic Health Records, Health Information Exchanges , Accountable Care Organizations and Health Insurance Firms.
Beyond Seer: Leveraging and Expanding AYA Data Resources
• Pursue linkage of data from SEER with Medicaid, state cancer registry data and large insurers
• Leverage existing and future studies involving AYA that are not cancer focused
• Conduct an AYA-Focused NCI Patterns of Care Study
Questions for Discussion
• Can the work of other groups provide a context in which to understand these data?
• What do these data suggest about future prevention, clinical, and research priorities?
• What are the next steps in terms of data to address future priorities?
Overall Summary
• Incidence and mortality rates increase with age– Complex patterns by sex and race/ethnicity
• Rate trends– Decreasing: breast cancer mortality, melanoma incidence,
& leukemia mortality– Increasing: colorectal incidence & leukemia incidence
• Need additional data sources– Leverage existing study and health plan data– Repeat POC study