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Veerabhadran Ramanathan Scripps Institution of Oceanography
University of California at San Diego, CA 92037
APCAP-IIASA- MEETING AT TOKYO MARCH 10, 2015
ATMOSPHERIC BROWN CLOUDS PROGRAM ADDRESSING THE NEXUS BETWEEN AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE
CHANGE
T4B: Top 4 billion B3B: Bottom 3 Billion
SPONSORED BY UNEP; FUNDED BY UNEP AND PARTCIPATING NATIONS
ABC: Vision & Action Plan
The first impact assessment report, Nov 2008
Preliminary Assessment Report, Aug 2002
Think Globally Assess Regionally Act Locally Ref for Slogan: C Kennel, 2009
ABCs: Aerosols & ozone and ozone precursors; GHGs
Over 10 Years of Knowledge to Action
Major Milestones: Setting the Maldives and Gosan Super Observatory (Funded by USA,SIDA and Korea) Setting the Pyramid Observatory at Himalayas (Funded by Italy and EC) UAV PLATFORMS REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS: 2002; 2008 UNEP/WMO BLACK CARBON AND OZONE ASSESSMENT (2011) FORMATION OF CLIMATE AND CLEAN AIR COALITION (2012)
V. Ramanathan, H. Rodhe, M. Agrawal , H. Akimoto, M. Auffhammer ,U.K. Chopra, L. Emberson , S.I. Hasnain, M. Iyngararasan , A. Jayaraman , M. Lawrence, T. Nakajima , M. Ruchirawat, A. K. Singh, J.R. Vincent, Y. Zhang
2008 China; Germany; India; Italy; Japan; Kenya; Korea; Maldives; Nepal; S. Africa; Sweden; USA The First Such regional Report
ABCsThreaten Public Health, Water Security and
Food Security of Asia
Back Scattering (Cooling) ABC Regional Hot Spots
Indo-Asian-Pacific Plume European Plume N American Plume
N Atlantic-African-S Indian Ocean Plume
SE Asian-Australian Plume
E Asian-Pacific-N American Plume Latin American Plume
Amazonian Plume
UNEP-ABC 2008 Report; Ramanathan et al, 2008
MEGA CITY ABC HOTSPOTS as of: 2008
Tokyo
Seoul
Mum
bai N
ew D
elhi Shanghai
CAIR
O
Beijing
Kolkatta Tehran
Shenzen Lagos D
haka
Karachi
Bangkok
Category based on satellite derived column amount of particles (defined optically)
UNEP-ABC 2008 Report
75% OF FATALTIES OCCUR IN ASIA Economic Cost of Outdoor Air Pollution: CHINA : $ 1400 Billion (USD) INDIA: $500 Billion (USD) 1 Billion : 109.
7 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO AMBIENT & HOUSEHOLD AIR POLLUTION 4.3 MILLION DEATHS DUE TO HOUSEHOLD EMISSIONS FROM COOKING, HEATING AND LIGHTING
ABC IS ABOUT SAVING LIVES IN THE MILLIONS
November 14 2006 December 21 2001
NASA-MODIS
ATMOSPHERIC SOLAR HEATING: MELTING OF GLACIERS; DISRUPTION OF MONSOON
DIMMING OF SURFACE: DECREASING EVAPORATION; DECREASING MONSOON RAINFALL
DEPOSITION OF BC ON SNOW MELTING OF GLACIERS
>500,000 deaths from indoor Pollution 630000 deaths from outdoor Pollution
5.5 MILLIONS OF TONS OF CROP DAMAGES
INTENSITY OF HURRICANES
One of the major highlights of the ABC program is the establishment of The EV-K2-CNR Pyramid Observatory by the Italian Government and scientists
It is likely the Himalayan Glaciers is one of the Tipping Points of Climate Change and We still Have the Chance to prevent it
Pathway for limiting global warming to 2 C (3.6 F)
Ramanathan and Xu, PNAS, 2010
I.Stabilize Carbon Dioxide Concentrations below 440ppm (T4B Challenge) II. Reduce Short Lived Climate Pollutants (T4B and B3B problem) ( contributes 40% of current Global warming): Black Carbon (<2 weeks); Ozone (< 2 months); Methane (<15 years) HFCs & HCFCs (<15 years) 25 to 4000 times more effective than CO2 on 50-100 years scale
Role of CO2 and SLCPs Mitigation in future Warming & Sea Level Rise
SLCPs can reduce near term (2000-2050) warming by as much as 50% SLCPs can reduce end of century sea level rise by about 25% Simultaneous CO2 mitigation is crucial for limiting end of century warming below 20C Source: Ramanathan and Xu.2010 & HU et al, 2013
SLCPs: BC+Methane+ Ozone+HFCs
Chair: D. Shindell Vice Chairs: Ramanathan, Raes, Cifuentes & Oanh
2011
Shindell, D., Ramanathan, V., Raes, F., Cifuentes, L., & Kim Oanh, N. T. (2011). Integrated assessment of black carbon and tropospheric ozone (pp. 1–285). Nairobi: UNEP and WMO. Retrieved from http://www.unep.org/dewa/Assessments/EcosystemClimateChange/tabid/7002/Default.aspx
Now 30 nations have joined. European Union and World Bank; Many Major NGOs have joined in this Second Front Against Climate Change
Feb 16, 2012
SLCPs Intersect With development issues- B3B Issues
Photo:Ramanathan, 2009
Mukteshwar, Central Himalayas, India
The B3B World Biomass is fuel source for cooking/Heating for about 2.7 Billion Second largest source of Black Carbon; also CO/Methane/VOCs 4.2 Million die each year from air pollution (indoor/outdoor)
Mukteshwar, Himalayas
Photo: Ramanathan
Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team
Gustafsson et al, 2012; 2013
Innovative Isotope techniques yield more accurate data on relative role of biomass and fossil fuels for BC concentrations over S. Asia. Provided convinving evidence for the major role of biomass combustion in ABCs. Supported earlier single particle INDOEX findings of Prather Group(2002). Sweden & Maldives (Gustafsson and others)
Providing Clean Cooking and Lighting Technologies & documenting their impacts on Air pollution, Climate Forcing, Health Exposure Indoors and outdoors
PIs: V. Ramanathan, I.H. Rehman and N. Ramanathan
Collaborating Institutions U. Iowa, USA Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, India Duke University, USA Carbonomics, USA Environmental Financial products LLC, USA U. Of Southern California, USA
CORE INSTITUTIONS University of California at San Diego, USA The Energy Resources Institute, Delhi, India Nexleaf Analytics, Los Angeles, USA
University of Nairobi (Kenya) African Center for Technology Studies (Kenya) Appropriate Solar and Wood Energy Network (Kenya) Department of Environment (Bangladesh) Dhaka University (Bangladesh) Alternative Energy Promotion Center (Nepal) National Environment Commission (Bhutan)
Incubator
Have Identified the Technology that reduces BC emissions Kar et al, 2011
Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Major New Findings by ABC Team
Yet another warming pollutant has
Been identified: Brown Carbon from Open Biomass Burning and
tarballs from fossil fuels
Korea-USA Team Chung, et al, PNAS, 2012
Bahadur et al, 2012 Feng et al, 2013
20
Scripps Inst. of Oceanography University of California at San Diego
Oakland, California, October 18, 2013
California’s BC Decreased drastically Due to mitigation of Diesel emissions
Trends in Co-emitted Cooling Species was negligible
California Air Resource Board Study Ramanathan et al, 2013
22
Air Pollution Mitigation does not deter development !
1. UPGRADE FUEL QUALITY 2. TIGHTEN VEHICLE EMISSION
STANDARDS 3. FOSTER DEVELOPMENT IN
NEW ENGINE MANAGEMENT TECHNOLOGY
4. INCREASE DISTRIBUTION OF HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLE
S. USE MICRO GRID WITH ELECTRIC AND HYBRID VEHICLE
6. UPGRADE IN-USE TESTING (INSPECTION AND ENFORCEMENT)
7. FLEET MODERNIZATION
8. LAND USE PLANNING, TELECOMMUTING, AND OTHER OPTIONS
9. PROMOTE NON-MOTORIZED TRANSPORT (NMT): WALK AND BICYCLE 10. SHIFT TRANSPORTATION TO OTHER MODES (FROM HIGHER TO LOWER-EMITTING FORMS OF TRANSPORT)
CROSS CUTTING TOOLS 11. BUILD INFORMATION BASIS: MONITORING12. INCREASE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE
CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD (CARB) AND GOVERNMENT OF INDIA (GOI) ON EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAMS
THE ICAMP TWELVE-POINT KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION AGENDA Ramanathan, Sundar, Harnish, Sharma, Seddon, Lloyd et al, 2014
Atmospheric Brown Clouds: New Initiatives by ABC Team
• Regional Model Intercomparison Study Japan(Nakajima), USA (Carmichael) & the
Whole Team
• SUSKAT: Field study in the Eastern Himalayas Germany(Lawrence; Rupakheti); Nepal (ICIMOD)
• LAISI: Proposed NASA-High Altitude Study of Role
of Dust and Black Carbon in Himalayan Glacier Melting
USA(JPL; Scripps); Italy (EC2); Germany; ICIMOD
T4B: The top 4 Billion with seemingly unlimited access
to fossil fuels. What WE should do is Reduce OUR Carbon footprint .
B3B: The bottom 3 billion lack access to fossil fuels.
What they need is Clean
Energy Access
AIR POLLUTION IS ONE OF THE MAJOR ISSUES IN SUSTAINABLE DEVLEOPMENT: HEALTH, FOOD, WATER AND CLEAN ENERGY ACCESS FOR ALL
My Personal Recommendation for the Next Phase of ABC
• ABC INITIATE A COLLABAORATIVE KNOWLEDGE TO ACTION PROGRAM FOR REDUCING BC AND PM IN EAST ASIA •REQUIRES SCIENCE (ABC-UNEP), TECHNOLOGY (CCAC &XXX-UNEP), POLICY (NATIONAL/PROVINCE GOVTS-UNEP) AND GOVERNANCE (LOCAL GOVTS-UNEP)
What is at Stake here?
Sustainability Gains Saving hours of time lost and hard labor to collection of firewood (1.5 ton to 2 tons of wood per year by women and girls) Saving >3 million lives lost to air pollution from residential cooking with solid fuels Saving 100 millions of tons of crops lost to air pollution Mitigating 1 billion ton of CO2 per year from avoided deforestation; Mitigating another 2 billion tons of CO2 equivalent due to black carbon and ozone Diesel Black Carbon : About 2 billion Ton Food Wastage (in B3B World) : 1.6 Billion Tons/Year
Ramanathan, April 2013
Thank you CCAC and to all participants for accepting our invitation and for making this meeting a great success