COMMENTARY

december 27, 2014 vol xlIX no 52 EPW Economic & Political Weekly16

Addressing the Emergent Disaster Riskscape in Urban India

Jyotiraj Patra, Komal Kantariya

Recent natural disasters in India highlight the extent to which urban systems, associated structures, and populations are at greater risk. Cyclone Hudhud and the fl oods in Srinagar are clear indications of an emergent disaster riskscape that is taking shape in urban India. This article highlights the opportunities across fi ve interlinked domains of institutions, innovation, investment, infrastructure and information to address this situation.

Disasters derail development pro-cesses. Communities and econo-mies very often fi nd it diffi cult to cope with and recover from such sudden shocks. And this is ever more intense and prolonged in an urban context where drivers of disaster vulnerability as well capacities to adapt are diverse and differential. While hydro-meteorological hazards, such as cyclones, storms, and extreme rainfall events, are likely to become more frequent and intense because of a changing climate, there has also been a signifi cant increase in the level of exposure of our urban soci0-ecological systems. The growing body of scientifi c evidence, such as the Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assess-ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014), not only points to a changing pattern of such hydro-meteorological hazards but also highlights the multiple ways through which development choices and planning have increased exposure and given rise to a new risk regime in our cit-ies and societies.

Disaster risk in urban settings is quite distinct and is infl uenced by the proc-esses of urbanisation and other underly-ing socio-economic and political factors. Disaster-induced loss and damage in such situations are signifi cantly high. The total economic loss in the Jammu and Kashmir fl oods has been estimated to the tune of Rs 1.0 trillion ($16 billion) and insurance payouts of more than Rs 9.0 billion ($150 million) (Aon 2014). These estimates pertain to loss and dam-ages that have been quantifi ed and mon-etised and do not include the non-eco-nomic loss and damage such as erosion of culture, threat to identity, disruptions of social cohesion, decline in ecosystem services and trauma associated with displacement.

While urbanisation offers tremendous economic opportunities and drives a nations growth, natural disasters and climate extremes have an impact on these processes and threaten these development gains in multiple ways. A vulnerability analysis of Indias 20 cities revealed that many of them are prone to multiple hazards (Parikh, Jindal and Sandal 2013). Urban development invest-ments and other new initiatives need to be better informed about these risks. Dis-aster risks are complex and dynamic. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts in our cities need to understand these chal-lenges, as well as the opportunities. There is also an opportunity to move away from a sectoral approach to DRR towards an iterative process of learning and doing things at various levels.

Post-disaster discussions often focus on the city development plans (CDPs) and city disaster management plans (CDMPs), wherever available, and point to the critical issue of inadequate imple-mentation of safety measures such as building codes or protection of natural waterbodies or drainage channels. But subsequent priorities of reconstruction and recovery dominate the discussions where scopes to relook at these plans to avoid future risk creation and accumula-tion are very limited.

Indias disaster relief expenses have gone from $1.1 billion in 2009 to more than $1.4 billion in 2013 and DRR invest-ments over these periods went up from $0.5 billion to $0.6 billion (Development Initiative 2014).

Window of Opportunities

Recent natural disasters and the extent of loss and damage in our cities needs to be understood in the present context where the new government plans to build 100 smart cities across India. These cities will be built on the four pillars of social, physical, institutional and economic infra-structures. Sustainability and quality of life are central to this design (MoUD 2014a). Smart governance, by breaking down departmental silos through greater coor-dination and effective use of information and communication technology (ICT) tools, is at the heart of the proposed insti-tutional infrastructure. Alth ough disaster

Views expressed are personal.

Jyotiraj Patra ( jyotirajpatra@gmail.com) is with the International Development Research Centre, Canada and Komal Kantariya (komal.kantariya@gmail.com) is with the United Nations Development Programme, India.

COMMENTARY

Economic & Political Weekly EPW december 27, 2014 vol xlIX no 52 17

(on page 32) is placed within physical in-frastructure, its linkages to other infra-structures have been well established in this design plan. Similarly the Ministry of Urban Developments (MoUD) urban and regional development plans formu-lation and implementation guidelines (2014) underscore the need for city-level disaster management plans and other disaster proofi ng initiatives (MoUD 2014b).

This dual opportunity of a series of new initiatives of the government in India and the ongoing post-disaster re-construction provides a window of opp-ortunities to further strengthen our capa cities to address the emergent disas-ter riskscape in a more effi cient, inclu-sive and effective manner. It is against this background, we suggest fi ve inter-linked elements of institutions, invest-ments, innovation, information and in-frastructure as key to the design and de-velopment of an improved urban disas-ter risk governance framework.

(a) Institutions: Institutions play a criti-cal role in shaping actions and decisions at various levels of governance. Various urban development policies, legislations, schemes and missions of the Government of India provide the larger institutional architecture to govern and manage our cities. While these overarching policy provisions look into a wide spectrum of issues, from urban renewal to local self-government, a space for further institu-tional renewal and reconfi guration has emerged because of changing economic priorities, emerging development needs and shifting environmental changes. This space is around rethinking and learning about the new trajectories of urban development which is inclusive, low-carbon and resilient. Opportunities to relook at the institutional practices, including decision-making, which could be reworked to reduce the level of expo-sure of the development investments and gains in the city are immense. It is also about strengthening the capacities of communities, mostly the urban poor, and the governance systems to better anticipate, prepare for and recover from such disasters.

Disaster management is a state subject and this is an opportunity to further

strengthen the state disaster management authorities (SDMAs) and the district dis-aster management authorities (DDMAs) as enshrined in the Disaster Management Act (2005). Enhancing the capacity of these authorities and the associated sys-tems for better disaster preparedness and risk reduction planning is essential as they play a critical role at the local level. There is a growing body of evidence on the effectiveness of investments in and support for institutions and actors at the sub-national and city levels (Anton et al 2014). Because of their proximity to the challenges faced by the city and its citizens, these institutions and actors are well-positioned to design and devel-op context-specifi c measures and mobi-lise adequate resources, both fi nancial and human. The recently rele ased zero draft of the post-2015 framework for dis-aster risk reduction has identifi ed the leadership and empowerment of local authorities and communities as one of the key guiding principles. The Govern-ment of Indias decision to revamp and restructure the National Disaster Man-agement Authority (NDMA) is one such timely initiative (Yadav 2014), which could encourage further decentralisation of decision-making and resources to the state, municipality and district levels. Increased engagement of and contribu-tion from non-traditional partners at the city level such as donors, trans- national corporations, scientifi c and rese arch insti-tutes and citizen groups could also be mobilised at the local level.

Disaster affects all sectors; from power supply to water and sanitation to health infrastructure. DRR planning provides an additional opportunity to multi-sectoral and interdepartmental coordination, moni toring and learning. A case in point is the Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan (2014), prepared under the leadership of the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC), for reducing heat-related risks at the city and ward levels.

(b) Innovation: Technology plays a big role in supporting every other aspect of city disaster management plan and all spheres of decision-making associated with it. Simple and innovative technolo-gies such as mobile apps and ICT-enabled

platforms for early warnings build the capacities of authorities and citizens for better disaster preparedness. Such inno-vation could also be at the level of infra-structure design, construction, operation and maintenance in a city. Power infra-structures are most at risk where cyclo-nes and fl oods are concerned and as witnessed in Hudhud and Phailin. Accord-ing to preliminary estimates Andhra Pra deshs energy department sustained a massive loss of more than Rs 1,000 crore in Hudhud (TNN 2014). An innova-tive and smart power distribution net-work through underground cabling is on the anvil.1 State governments and mu-nicipal authorities can further support and mobilise an innovation ecosystem by providing innovators and entrepre-neurs adequate institutional support and space for city-specifi c innovative risk assessment and communication platforms. Microsofts City Next platform is one such innovation which provides real-time information to a diverse set of stakeholders through cloud computing and mobile technology. Microsoft India has already identifi ed more than 40 solution areas across eight city domains and has started its work on the countrys fi rst smart IT city in Surat.

(c) Investment: Investments in protec-tive infrastructures, risk transfer instru-ments such as insurance and other social protection measures protect lives, liveli-hoods and vital economic sectors. Finan-cial resources very often play a critical role in ensuring the up scaling and sus-tainability of best practices. Planning Commission estimated an infrastructure investment of Rs 41 lakh crore during the Twelfth Plan and this offers a tril-lion dollar opportunity (Deloitte 2014). But realising this opportunity requires signifi cant improvements in the existing investment environment. India has gone down by two points, from 23 in 2012 to 25 in 2014 in the Global Infrastructure Investment Index (ARCADIS 2014). Gov-ernments efforts in bringing about a cha nge through affi rmative policy meas-ures and initiatives such as the Make in India programme, which allows 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) through the automatic route for townships and

COMMENTARY

december 27, 2014 vol xlIX no 52 EPW Economic & Political Weekly18

cities, are likely to attract more global investments and technological know-how. Micro, small and medium enterpri ses (MSMEs), which also employ a large chunk of the urban population, are at greater risk. Most of them do not have timely access to resources and techno-logical know-how to reduce the level of exposure in their production systems and value chains. One such example is the age-old handloom and handicraft sec-tor, one of the prime economic sectors in Jammu and Kashmir, which was seve rely affected in the recent fl oods.

Investments to build the resilience of such MSMEs will help to reduce the impact of disaster and protect the source of livelihoods for the large section of urban population dependent on them. Risk transfer instruments such as insur-ance and catastrophic bonds have emerged as innovative market-linked mechanisms to enhance the capacities of communities, businesses and states to quickly recover during disasters. Ac-cording to AIR, a global leader in risk modelling, insured losses in cyclone Hudhud could be bet ween $100 million to $400 million (AIR 2014). Taking into account these losses, the Insurance Reg-ulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDA) is working towards a cata-strophic insurance mechanism, including micro-insurance for the urban poor, in the country (ENS 2014). City-level oppor-tunities have also been discussed in de-tail in the New Climate Economy Report (The Global Commission on the Econo-my and Climate 2014). Thus, investment and innovation opportunities to build resilient cities are many and emerging.

(d) Infrastructure: The state of infra-structure determines the scale of the im-pact of the disaster and how effectively vital infrastructures will bounce back and resume their services in an emer-gency. Poor and short-term infrastru c-ture planning which are not risk- informed often exacerbate the vulnera-bility of a system and increase the level of exposure and multiplies disaster losses. Floodings in Kedarnath and Kashmir and cyclones in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh have highlighted how vulnerable some of the vital life-saving

infrastructures such as roads, telecom-munication, health, and electricity dis-tribution are. Post-disaster recovery also helps us to understand and rectify some of the weaknesses in these infrastru-cture systems and to work towards imp roving others such as forecast and warning systems and decision-support systems. International cooperation, thr-o ugh technology transfer and fi nancial investments, plays a signifi cant role in many such infrastructure development. Japan, one of the world leaders in re-search and development (R&D) in disas-ter resilient infrastructure development and the third largest source of FDI for India, has come forward to build the capital city of the Hudhud affected state of Andhra Pradesh (NDTV 2014). While investments in phy sical infrastructures such as road networks, electricity, tele-communication, water supply, waste management and healthcare are essen-tial, there is also ample scope for re-building the eco- infrastructure such as the green spaces, natural drainage sys-tems, waterbodies and wetlands, most of which often gets obliterated and en-croached. While these are context spe-cifi c, economic returns from invest-ments in a combination of eco-infra-structures and physical engineering structures such as embankments and dykes are signifi cantly higher. A $36.3 million investment in dredging and res-toration combined with construction of levees on the Barataria Basin Land-bridge in Louisiana in 2010 has lowered the risk of fl ood damage by $5.3 billion to $18 billion annually (CPRA 2012).

(e) Information: Availability of, accessi-bility to, and use of real-time information is key to decision-making. The informa-tion needs of stakeholders and agencies are diverse. And this is all the more criti-cal given the variabilities and uncertain-ties, including weather extre mes that pose a signifi cant challenge to decision-making in a relatively short span of time. Decision-makers at the local level re-quire a relatively greater degree of preci-sion in terms of forecasts and prediction. Second, updated information on trends in demography, development invest-ments, state of the infrastructures, and

changing patterns of live lihoods and re-source use is essential to undertake timely and effective disaster prepared-ness and risk reduction mea sures. While science can play a big role in this through climate modelling and projections, the role of social scien ces is even more im-portant to highlight how perceptions, culture, gender and other socio-eco-nomic and political factors infl uence risk in a community or system at a given point in time. The persistent dichotomy of information producers versus infor-mation users does more harm than good. And we have witnessed the dev-astating effects of such dichotomy which results in divergent views, differ-ence of opinions, confusion and chaos. Academic institutes, research bodies, private sector, municipal corporation, community-based organisations and other development agencies can work together to develop and update disaster risk information database. This would also enhance ownership of the process as well as the fi nal products such as the CDMPs.

Disasters offer window of opportuni-ties for course correction and improved planning. We hope this opportunity is not missed and we are able to plan our cities better in light of the emergent dis-aster riskscape in India.

References

AIR (2014): Alert Worldwide; Tropical Cyclone Hudhud, http://alert.air-worldwide.com/Eve ntSummary.aspx?e=760&tp=72&c=1

Anton, B, A Cambray, M Dupa, A Westerlind- Wigstroem and E Gogoi (2014): Close to Home: Subnational Strategies for Climate Compatible Development, Working Paper, CDKN, http://resilient-cities.iclei.org/fi lead-min/sites/resilient -cities/fi les/Resilient_Cit-ies_2014/CDKN_ICLEI -Subnational-CCD-Strategies2.pdf

Aon Benfi eld (2014): Global Catastrophe Recap: Sep tember 2014, http://thoughtleadership.aon-benfi eld.com/Documents/20141008_if_septe-mber_global_recap.pdf

ARCADIS (2014): Second Global Infrastructure Investment Index, http://www.arcadis.com/Content/ArcadisGlobal/Docs/publications/Re search/Arcadis_global_InfrastructureInvest-ment_Index_2014.pdf

CPRA (2012): Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority (CPRA) of Louisiana, Louisianas Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast, Baton Rouge, LA.

Deloitte (2014): Indian Infrastructure: A Trillion Dollar Opportunity, http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-India/Local% 20Assets/Images/ Thumbnails/infra/Deloitte%20Background% 20Paper_27Jan_Final2.pdf

COMMENTARY

Economic & Political Weekly EPW december 27, 2014 vol xlIX no 52 19

Development Initiative (2014): Global Humanitari-an Assistance Report 2014, http://www.global-humanitarianassistance.org/report/gha-re-port-2014

ENS (2014): IRDA Bats for Catastrophe Cover, The Indian Express, 18 October, http://indian-express.com/article/business/irda-bats-for- catastrophe-cover/

IPCC (2014): Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adap-tation and Vulnerability, Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Field, C B, V R Barros, D J Dokken, K J Mach, M D Mastrandrea, T E Bilir, M Chatterjee, K L Ebi, Y O Estrada, R C Genova, B Girma, E S Kissel, A N Levy, S MacCracken, P R Mastrandrea and L L White (ed.) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press),

United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1132.MoUD (2014a): Concept Note on Smart Cities,

Government of India, http://indiansmartcities.in/downloads/CONCEPT%20NOTE-13-10-2014_mkgnew.pdf

(2014b): First Draft of URDPFI, Government of India, http://moud.gov.in/sites/upload_fi les /moud/fi les/URDPFI%20Guidelines%20Vol% 20I%20Draft-1%2026.02.14.pdf

NDTV (2014): Japan Keen to Develop Andhra Pradeshs Capital City, http://www.ndtv.com/article/south/japan-keen-to-develop-andhra-pradesh-s-capital-city-610846?ndtv_related

Parikh, J, P Jindal and G Sandal (2013): Climate Resilient Urban Development: Vulnerability Profi les of 20 Indian Cities, COE-IARADe.

http://irade.org/Executive%20Summary_RF. pdf

The Global Commission on the Economy and Cli-mate (2014): The New Climate Economy: Better Growth, Better Climate, http://timesofi ndia.in-diatimes. com/city/visakhapatnam/Vizag-fi rst-Indian-city-directly-hit-by-cyclone-Hudhud/articleshow/44864271.cms

TNN (2014): Naidu to Shield Vizag from Cyclones, Floods, 17 October, http://timesofi ndia.india-times.com/india/Naidu-to-shield-Vizag-from-cyclones-fl oods/articleshow/44843539.cms

Yadav, Y (2014): Restructuring of NDMA Soon, The New Indian Express, 1 October, http://www .newindianexpress.com/nation/Restructuring -of-NDMA-Soon/2014/10/01/article 2457449.ece