ADAS Harvest Report 2014 Final Summary Report

0936648

Prepared for: AHDB HGCA

Prepared by:

[email protected], [email protected] and Rebecca.Carter.co.uk

ADAS UK Ltd ADAS Boxworth Cambridge

Date: 30 September 2014

For inclusion on the distribution list contact [email protected]

ADAS Harvest Report 2014 Report 10 – Week 11 of normal harvest window

Final Summary Report Note: Harvest reports run up to close of play on Tuesday of each week

Harvest reports produced by ADAS on behalf of HGCA

mailto:[email protected]



2

Summary

Harvest progress: Harvest 2014 had an earlier start than most recent years. Settled weather allowed rapid clearance of winter barley and winter oilseed rape throughout July. Unsettled weather affected the early wheat and spring barley harvest, but there was still good progress in most weeks. Harvest was virtually complete by 23 September with some field beans and linseed left to harvest in northern regions of the UK.

Yields: Yields were above average across all cereals and oilseeds, aided by good crop establishment, adequate moisture through the spring and summer, and plentiful sunshine during grain fill.

Quality: Quality of the 2014 combinable crops is acceptable. Wheat quality is mostly within specification, with Hagberg Falling Numbers (HFN) averaging 311 secs and specific weights averaging 77.3 kg/hl, however protein levels were low (11.3%). Barley quality was also acceptable with specific weights (66.4 kg/hl) and screenings (1.6%) within specification. However, grain nitrogen contents are the lowest since records began at 1.53%.

Headlines Wheat 99% UK area harvested – Estimated national average yield

8.4-8.6 t/ha. Quality throughout harvest was good with average specific weights of 78.3 kg/hl for group 1 varieties and 76.5 kg/hl for group 4 varieties. HFN were maintained throughout harvest. Grain proteins are low ranging from 9.0-13.7%.

Winter barley 100% UK area harvested – Estimated national average yield 7.2-7.4 t/ha. Quality throughout harvest was good, specific weights were high and screening levels were mostly within specification.

Spring barley 100% UK area harvested – Estimated national average yield 6.0-6.3 t/ha. Overall, quality was good although there were signs of a reduction in quality of some later harvested crops in the English regions due rain delaying harvest.

Oats 100% UK area harvested – Estimated national average yield 5.9-6.1 t/ha. Specific weights averaged 54 kg/hl, ranging from 52-55 kg/hl for winter crops and around 45-51 kg/hl for spring crops.

Oilseed rape 100% (winter) and 90% (spring) UK area harvested – Estimated national average yield of winter crops 3.3-3.6 t/ha. Typical oil contents ranged from 42-48%.

3

Harvest weather

Overall, the weather during the harvest period was reasonable, with above average air temperatures and variable levels of rainfall, which generally did not cause widespread or long lasting delays to harvest. Conditions during July were warm and dry, allowing an early start to be made to harvest of winter barley and winter oilseed rape crops (Figure 1). The warm settled conditions during July gave way to more mixed conditions in August when heavy, localised showers interspersed with bright sunny spells were common across the UK. Showers did cause some minor disruptions in some areas, and increased the need for drying, particularly given the cooler air temperatures that slowed drying in the field.

A summary of the weather throughout harvest is shown in Table 1 below.

ADAS from met office data Figure 1 Average weekly harvest rainfall 2014: This shows the key harvest

windows of mid-July for winter barley and oilseed rape and late July for wheat.

4

Table 1 Summary of weekly harvest weather

Week (date) Comment Average rainfall (mm / week)

Average temperature

(C)

3 June - 8 July Pre harvest - dry and bright with good levels of sunshine to promote grainfill

11 15

Week 1 - 5-15 July Start of winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest, highs of 27°C

9 17

Week 2- 16-22 July Mixed, with periods of hot and humid followed by heavy rainfall and thunderstorms

14 19

Week 3- 23- 29 July Start to winter wheat harvest – mostly dry 5 19

Week 4-30 July – 5 Aug Cooler, more unsettled weather across the country

24 17

Week 5- 6 - 12 Aug Heavy rain over the weekend - 37 16

Week 6- 13 -19 Aug Mixed, with periods of heavy, localised rainfall and bright sunshine

9 15

Week 7- 20- 26 Aug Unsettled 21 13

Week 8- 27 Aug- 2 Sept Unsettled 8 15

Week 9- 3- 9 September Mostly warm and dry 2 15

Week 10- 10-16 Sept Fine and bright 1 15

Week 11- 17- 23 Sept Unsettled weather conditions 7 15

Harvest progress overview

Harvest 2014 started early, with good progress made with winter barley and winter oilseed rape throughout July, coinciding with a period of warm, dry weather. Steady progress was made with wheat and spring barley harvest throughout August and September, with just occasional delays due to rain. Harvest was completed in line with recent years. Figure 2 shows weekly combinable crop harvest progress over the 2014 harvest period by the crop, with key points A-E labelled.

A –The start of harvest was one week earlier than most recent years, due to forward crops and warm, dry grain fill period. Winter barley and winter oilseed rape crops in southern regions were ready for harvest mid-July (WE 15/7), with good progress made by WE 22/7.

B –Large areas of winter barley and winter oilseed rape were cleared in each of last two weeks of July. Harvest of winter wheat and spring barley also started in the southern regions in the last week of July (WE 29/7), ahead of the 5 year average.

C –Progress with wheat and spring barley harvest slowed during early to mid-August as conditions became more unsettled with heavy, localised rainfall disrupting harvest progress. Hurricane Bertha hit the UK on 7 August bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall which stopped harvest for 4-5 days, whilst crops dried. Harvest of winter barley and winter oilseed rape was virtually complete by early August.

D – The most harvest progress was made during 13-19 August, with the main focus being on harvesting spring barley and wheat crops which were ready to harvest in all regions of the UK.

5

E – Harvest progress slowed during September as most of the cereal crops had already been harvested and progress with break crops was limited by crop maturity. As a result, despite the early start, harvest finished in line with recent years.

Source: ADAS 2014 Figure 2 Weekly harvest progress (all crops) – area harvested each week in

hectares (Week 1 – WE 15 July)

6

Harvest summary

Winter wheat

Area harvested to date 99 % UK area

Estimated average UK yield to date 8.4-8.6 t/ha

Yield range 2.0-14.0 t/ha

UK 5 year average yield 7.7 t/ha

Quality - national average

SpWt 76 kg/hl

Hagberg falling number 274 secs

Protein 12.0 %

Moisture at harvest 16 %

Progress

Harvest of winter wheat started in southern regions of the UK in late July, which was ahead of the 5 year average, but slightly behind the earliest recent harvest. Harvest progress was steady, with the main period of wheat harvesting lasting five weeks, compared with the more typical harvest period of four weeks. Most harvest progress was made between 13-19 August, with a start made to harvest in northern English regions and parts of Scotland, whilst large areas were also harvested in the Eastern region and East Midlands. By the beginning of September, wheat harvest was drawing to a close, with just occasional crops left to harvest through September (Figure 3).

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 3 Winter wheat harvest progress comparison – cumulative % area harvested

7

Yield

The estimated national yield is 8.4-8.6 t/ha, which is 9-12% above the 10-year average yield of 7.7 t/ha. Across the harvest period farm yields have typically ranged from 7.4-8.7 t/ha. Crops have tended to yield well across all soil types due to adequate moisture during the spring and summer, with crops grown on heavier land commonly yielding 10-12 t/ha and crops grown on lighter soils typically yielding 7.5-9.5 t/ha.

Yields of spring wheat crops were variable, but good, with yields typically ranging from 6-8 t/ha.

High yields were influenced by early establishment of winter crops in the autumn, which led to good winter survival and high plant and tiller numbers going into the spring. Adequate soil moisture during the spring and summer also meant that even on lighter soils, very few crops suffered signs of water stress. Yield prospects were also increased due to mild temperatures and plentiful sunshine hours during grain fill which enabled crops to optimise the grain-fill period.

Although the majority of crops have yielded well, there are occasional poor yielding crops associated with weak fungicide programmes, inappropriate fungicide timings, weed competition, soil compaction or waterlogging, but these have not impacted greatly on the national yield.

Quality

The HGCA second provisional grain quality results were published on 26 September. These provide results for grain harvested and sampled up to 15 September, which given the early completion of harvest, should give a good basis for quality information (Table 2). The survey is based on data from 71,106 wheat samples, with a higher proportion of group 3 and 4 wheats included in this sample compared with the provisional results published in August.

Specific weight – The HGCA quality survey average specific weight for all wheat crops is 77.3 kg/hl, which is similar to the final result of 2013, and slightly lower than the 3 year average. The HGCA survey results ranged from 71.4-83.0 kg/hl. The average specific weight for group 1 wheats was 78.3 kg/hl, group 2 was 78.8 kg/hl, group 3 was 76.4 kg/hl and group 4 was 76.5 kg/hl.

Hagberg Falling Number (HFN) – Hagberg Falling Numbers (HFN) were good, averaging 311 seconds and ranging from 194-421 seconds. HFN were maintained across harvest as there were few weather delays, especially in the main milling wheat varieties, so crops were harvested as they became ripe.

Protein – Grain protein contents were low, averaging 11.3%. Protein contents ranged from 9.0-13.7%.

Mycotoxins – Mycotoxins risk has been low.

Ergot - Ergot was reported in some samples of winter and spring wheat in the East Midlands and South East.

8

Table 2 Provisional AHDB/HGCA Quality Survey results for GB wheat crops – comparison with recent years

All Wheat 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Specific weight kg/hl 77 78.7 69.6 77 77.3

Hagberg falling number sec 270 269 237 314 311

Protein % 11.9 12 12.5 12.2 11.3

Group 1 - Milling Wheat 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Specific weight kg/hl 77.9 79.8 70.7 77.8 78.3


Protein % 12.9 13 13.3 13 12.2

Group 2 - Wheat 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Specific weight kg/hl 78 79.4 71.3 77.8 78.8


Protein % 12.3 12.6 13.0 12.5 11.9

Winter barley






SpWt 65 kg/hl

Malting grain N 1.7 %

Screenings 4 %


Progress

Harvest of winter barley started in southern regions in mid-July (WE 15/7) ,which was ahead of the 5 year average, but behind the earliest recent harvest. Good harvest progress was made throughout July, with crops becoming ripe for harvest in northern regions by 22 July and in Scotland by 29 July. The main period of winter barley harvest was between 15 July and 5 August, with over 95% of the winter barley area harvested by 5 August. Harvest of winter barley was complete by 19 August, which is in line with the earliest recent harvest and ahead of the 5 year average.

9

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 4 Winter barley harvest progress comparison – cumulative % area harvested

Yield

The estimated national yield of winter barley is 7.2-7.4 t/ha, which is a 12-15% increase on the ten year national average of 6.4 t/ha. Farm yields were consistently above the farm average, with crop yields typically ranging from 6.9-8.2 t/ha.

Higher yields tended to come from feed varieties rather than malting varieties. Yields from hybrid varieties were variable. Higher yields were also seen from crops grown on medium and heavier land compared with lighter land, although the regular rainfall through the spring and early summer meant that the crops grown on lighter land also performed well.

Most crops have yielded very well this year, however there were a small number of crops that suffered from factors that reduced yields- see wheat section above.

Quality – see spring barley

10

Spring barley






SpWt 65 kg/hl

Malting grain N 1.3 %

Screenings 3 %


Progress

Harvest started in southern regions of England at the end of July (WE 29/7) and in Wales in the beginning of August (WE 5/8) which was earlier than most recent years. Harvest started in the North East and North West in mid-August (WE 19/8).

The main body of harvest in England and Wales took place between August and early September (Figure 5). By mid-August crops had reached harvest maturity in both southern and northern regions, allowing large areas to be cleared between 13-19 August. In England and Wales harvest was almost complete by 9 September, which is in line with recent years, with just occasional crops left to harvest in northern England.

11

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 5 Spring barley harvest progress comparison England & Wales – cumulative % area harvested

In Scotland, spring barley harvest started in early August (WE 5/8), which is ahead of all recent harvests (Figure 6). Despite the early start, harvest progress was only just head of the five year average for much of harvest, until a concerted effort during early September which once again drove progress ahead of the earliest recent harvest. Harvest was almost complete by 23 September with only small areas left to harvest in northern Scotland.

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 6 Spring barley harvest progress comparison Scotland – cumulative % area harvested

Yield

The estimated national average yield is 6.0-6.3 t/ha, which is 11-16% above the ten year national average yield of 5.4 t/ha. Yields were variable, ranging from 4.2-9.5 t/ha in English regions and from 5.5 t/ha in South East Scotland to 6.8 t/ha in parts of North West Scotland.

Yields have been above average across all soil types due to adequate soil moisture in the soil profile between late May and early June. Feed varieties have tended to yield slightly better than malting varieties, but the differences have not been as prevalent as in the winter barley crops.

Quality

Quality was good especially for specific weight and screenings, however grain nitrogen contents are low, with the HGCA quality survey results being the lowest since records began in 1977. The HGCA quality survey published on 26 September includes data from 26,513 barley samples, with spring barley accounting for 72% of

12

the sample. Data below are for both winter and spring barley unless otherwise stated.

Specific weight– The HGCA average specific weight is 66.4 kg/hl (Table 3), which is lower than the 3 year average (excluding 2012), but similar to 2011. The HGCA quality survey results ranged from 61.1-71.5 kg/hl, which is similar to the range reported by ADAS network of harvest reporters of 65-72 kg/hl.

Grain protein – The average grain nitrogen content is 1.53%, which is the lowest level since records began. Across all crops the range was 1.18-1.9%. Winter barley averaged 1.61%, whilst spring barley averaged 1.50%.

Screenings– Screening levels were mostly within specification, with the HGCA quality survey averaging 1.6% through a 2.25mm sieve.

Table 3 Malting barley quality results (from HGCA provisional quality survey – 26 September 2014)

Barley total 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Specific weight kg/hl 67 66.4 62.9 67.5 66.4

Nitrogen % 1.64 1.71 1.6 1.68 1.53

Screenings (2.25mm) % 1.9 1.4 3.6 1.7 1.6

Oats






SpWt 54 kg/hl


Progress

Harvest of winter oats started towards the end of July (WE 29/8), which was in line with the 5 year average (Figure 7). Rapid progress was made between 29 July – 5 August due to large areas of winter crops being ripe in southern regions, the Eastern region and the West Midlands, coinciding with good weather conditions. Steady progress was made from 5 August onwards, with the first spring crops harvested in mid to late August (WE 26/8). By 9 September, harvest was 90% complete, with occasional spring oats left to harvest in northern regions of the UK. Dry, warm weather conditions throughout September meant that harvest was virtually complete by 23 September, which was ahead of most recent years.

13

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 7 Oats harvest progress comparison – cumulative % area harvested

Yield

The estimated season national average yield is 5.9-6.1 t/ha, which is 3-7% above the ten year national average of 5.7 t/ha.

Overall, yields from both winter and spring oats were good. Yields of winter crops ranged from 5.0-9.5 t/ha, whilst spring oats typically yielded 5.5-6.5 t/ha, with occasional crops yielding 8.5 t/ha.

Crops grown on heavier, well drained land yielded better than those grown on medium and lighter soil types, although crops grown on lighter soils also yielded well.

Most crops have yielded very well, however lodging has reduced yields in affected crops due to harvesting difficulties. Poor field drainage has also lowered yields where crops were grown on heavy land which stood wet over winter.

Quality

Oat quality data is based on the data collected by ADAS and is not therefore as detailed or robust as the HGCA quality survey.

Specific weight- Specific weights were good, typically averaging 54 kg/hl, ranging from 52-55 kg/hl for winter crops and around 45-51 kg/hl for spring crops.

14

Winter oilseed rape





Quality - oil content 42-48 %

Moisture at harvest 6-12 %

Progress

Winter oilseed rape harvest began earlier than recent years and harvest progress remained ahead of all recent years throughout harvest (Figure 8). Rate of harvest was particularly rapid between 16-29 July with large areas cleared in southern regions, eastern regions and the Midlands. Harvest was almost complete by 5 August, with just occasional crops left to harvest in Northern England and Scotland which was well ahead of all recent years.

Source: ADAS 2014

Figure 8 Winter oilseed rape harvest progress comparison – cumulative % area harvested

Yield

This season’s estimated national average yield is 3.3-3.6 t/ha, which is just above the ten year national average yield of 3.3 t/ha. Typical yields are around 3.0-3.7 t/ha, although yields range from 1.9-5.5 t/ha. Farm yields tended to be above average.

15

Yields have been good across all soil types. Light and medium soils have yielded well this year (3-4 t/ha), with no water stress limiting yields and adequate drainage to limit waterlogging of the root zone.

Quality

Quality has been acceptable with average oil levels around 44%, typically ranging between 42-46%. Occasional samples had high oil contents of 47-48%.

Spring oilseed rape

Area harvested to date 90% UK area

Estimated average UK yield to date 2.0 t/ha

Yield range (Eastern region) 0.7-3.1 t/ha


Progress

A start to spring oilseed rape harvest was made in by the end of August (WE 29/8). Good harvest progress was made between late August to early September with 40% of the spring oilseed rape area harvested by 9 September. Large areas of spring oilseed rape were harvested from 10 September onwards, bringing harvest to 90% complete by 23 September with just small areas left to harvest in northern regions.

Yield

The season’s estimated national yield is 2.0 t/ha, which is in line with the 5 year average. Yields were variable, ranging from 0.7-3.1 t/ha, with higher yields from crops that were grown on medium or heavier soils that had established well during the spring. Poorer yields were associated with crops which suffered premature senescence due to warm temperatures, pest damage and high disease pressure where fungicides were not timed appropriately.

Susan Twining Sarah Wynn Brenda Mullan

ADAS Boxworth ADAS Boxworth AHDB/HGCA

Business line 01488 681321 Direct line 01954 268249 Office 02476 478760

Mobile 07831 266749

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]




Documents

ADAS Harvest Report 2014 Final Summary Report