ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN …...Reduce climate change impacts . Promote change . Facilitate adaptive responses Maintain current conditions . Adaptation options occupy

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN MINNESOTA

FORESTS Climate Informed Forest Management: Forum and Field Day

Grand Rapids, MN May 7-8, 2014

Linda Nagel Department of Forest Resources

Cloquet Forestry Center University of Minnesota

What is a adaptive management?

A dynamic approach to forest management in which the effects of treatments and decisions are continually monitored and used, along with research results, to modify management on a continuing basis to ensure that objectives are being met SAF Dictionary: dictionaryofforestry.org

2007

2008

2011

2010

2008

Recap… climate change in Minnesota

www.dnr.state.mn.us/ecs

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glchallengereport.html

Frelich & Reich 2010


Pagami Creek Fire – 2011 93,000 ac

Photos: DNR & D. Montogomery




Duluth Flood – 2012 Jay Cooke State Park

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/3

State of the Climate Global Analysis – March 2014

NOAA National Climatic Data Center


Pagami Creek Fire – 2011 93,000 ac

Photos: DNR & D. Montogomery




Duluth Flood – 2012 Jay Cooke State Park

WHAT CAN FOREST PLANNERS AND MANAGERS DO ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE?

Identify landowner objectives

Inventory the stand and determine site factors

Diagnosis

Develop a target stand in relation to your objective

Develop Silvicultural Prescription

Implementation

Monitor/Follow-up

Density Structure

Species comp Stand health Site Quality

Desired Future Conditions (DFCs)

The Silviculture Prescription

Process

Identify landowner objectives

Inventory the stand and determine site factors

Diagnosis

Develop a target stand in relation to your objective

Develop Silvicultural Prescription

Implementation

Monitor/Follow-up

Density Structure

Species comp Stand health Site Quality

Desired Future Conditions (DFCs)

The Silviculture Prescription

Process

Desired Future Condition (DFC)

• DFC = a description of the land or resource conditions that are believed necessary if goals and objectives are fully achieved • SAF Dictionary of Forestry, 1998

Desired Future Condition

TIME



Desired Future Condition (DFC)


TIME

Management will have to work with uncertainty


TIME

Climate Change Trajectory

?



TIME


Increasing resources needed to maintain DFC

?



TIME


?


Accommodating change

• Diversity and structural complexity will be the key to maintaining ecosystem function, even if the species mixture of the system changes • Species that are currently increasing • Species with wider ecological range of tolerances • Species with greater genetic diversity • Species and ecosystems adapted to disturbances • Species and ecosystems adapted to warmer, drier climates • Ecosystems with diverse communities and species • Ecosystems contained within larger, contiguous blocks

Swanston et al 2011

Accommodating change • Maintain biodiversity at all scales and elements

• Composition, structure, function • Gene, species, community • Stand, landscape, bioregional

sensu Thompson et al 2009

Silviculture Systems

Time (years)

Ecos

yste

m c

hara

cter

istic

s

Following Puettmann et al 2009

Stand structure Timber volume Tree biomass Habitat

Time (years)

Ecos

yste

m c

hara

cter

istic

s

B Intensive even-aged single species plantation




Time (years)

Ecos

yste

m c

hara

cter

istic

s

A

B

Single-tree selection

Intensive even-aged single species plantation




Time (years)

Ecos

yste

m c

hara

cter

istic

s

A

C

B



Managed as complex, adaptive systems (or left alone)




Time (years)

Ecos

yste

m c

hara

cter

istic

s

A

C

B



Managed as complex, adaptive systems (or left alone)

Following Puettmann et al 2009 Managing for complexity allows forests to be “creative” in adapting to new altered conditions


Complex ≈ Adaptive

Climate change response

Mitigation Adaptation

Sequester Carbon in Trees, Forests, and Products

Conserve Carbon Stocks Strengthen Adaptability of Forest-Dependent Communities

Create Better-Adapted Forests

Mitigation

Modified from FAO 2010

ADAPTATION • Actions to moderate the vulnerability of forests to climate

change • Position forests to become more healthy, resistant, &

resilient • Facilitate ecosystem responses to climate change when

appropriate MITIGATION • Use of forests to sequester carbon, provide renewable

energy from biomass, & avoid carbon losses from fire, mortality, conversion, etc.

Climate change response

• RESISTANCE – Actions that improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions • Short-term • High-value

After Millar et al 2007, 2008

Climate change – Adaptation

Disturbance Any relatively discrete event in time that disrupts ecosystem, community, or population structure and changes resources, substrate availability, or the physical environment SAF Dictionary: dictionaryofforestry.org

FREQUENCY

SEVE

RITY

Siberian meteor strike

Mt St Helens

Tornados

Gypsy moth

Annual fires

Ice storms

Glaciations

Crown fires Hurricanes

Pine beetle outbreak

Single tree blowdown

• RESISTANCE – Actions that improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions

• RESILIENCE – Actions that accommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition or desired reference condition following disturbance • Thinning stands to improve health and vigor • Manage vegetation following disturbance



Resistance vs. Resilience

http://forestry.sfasu.edu

• RESISTANCE – Actions that improve the defenses of the forest against anticipated changes or directly defend the forest against disturbance in order to maintain relatively unchanged conditions

• RESILIENCE – Actions that accommodate some degree of change, but encourage a return to a prior condition or desired reference condition following disturbance

• TRANSITION – Actions that intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to both new and changing conditions • Assist transitions and range shifts • Increase connectivity for migration corridors



Assisted Migration

Williams and Dumroese 2013

Reduce climate change impacts

Promote change

Facilitate adaptive responses

Maintain current

conditions

Adaptation options occupy a continuum of management goals related to their levels of desired change in ecosystem attributes and their

mechanism for coping with climate change

Resistance

Transition

Resilience

ADAPTIVE SILVICULTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE A multi-region, long-term silviculture study

PROJECT GOALS (1) Introduce natural resource managers to conceptual tools and approaches that help integrate climate change into natural resource management and silvicultural decision making

• Conduct training sessions at participating Forests for an audience of local managers and scientists

PROJECT GOALS (2) Populate a multi-region study design with ecosystem-specific climate change adaptation treatments using input from an expert panel of regional scientists and local managers

• Compare key variables among various climate change adaptation treatments in 3-5 different forest types across the United States

Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC)

ADAPTIVE SILVICULTURE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE (ASCC)

SRS: Jim Guldin (PI)

NRS/NIACS: Chris Swanston Maria Janowiak

NRS: Brian Palik

RMRS: Linda Joyce Mike Battaglia

PSW: Connie Millar

PNW: Dave Peterson

OSU: Lisa Ganio PI: Linda Nagel, UMN

SITE 2: San Juan NF

Collaborators

Study Sites

SITE 3: Ouachita NF

SITE 1: Cutfoot Exp Forest on Chippewa NF

Map by Doug Kastendick

Key Partners: B. Palik, C. Kern, T. D’Amato NRS Staff Chippewa NF Staff Large-scale – 500 ac Long-term

Forest Adaptation Resources

1. DEFINE area of interest, management goals and objectives,

and time frames.

2. ASSESS climate change impacts and

vulnerabilities for the area of interest.

3. EVALUATEmanagement objectives

given projected impacts and

vulnerabilities.

4. IDENTIFY and adaptation approaches

and tactics for implementation.

5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness

of implemented actions.

Are desired future

conditions reasonable given likely

climate trajectories?

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Vulnerability Assessments and other resources

Swanston and Janowiak 2012

Silviculture Rx Process

Climate change trends, impacts, and vulnerabilities for northern MN

Images courtesy of S. Handler

Potential shifts in species distributions (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II)

Vulnerability Assessment

Images courtesy of S. Handler

Current Conditions – Cutfoot Exp Forest

• FDn33: Northern Dry-Mesic Mixed Woodland

• Average basal area 180 ft2/ac • Year of origin 1918 • Single to multi-cohort • Overstory: red pine mixed with

white and jack pine • Minor species: paper birch,

northern red oak, red maple, white spruce, and aspen

• Current condition: vulnerable to climate change and forest health issues


Promote change


Maintain current

conditions

Adaptation options occupy a continuum of management goals related to their levels of desired change in ecosystem attributes and their

mechanism for coping with climate change

Resistance

Transition

Resilience

Current species predictions Chippewa NF – Tree Atlas (change in IV)

Species Current HadHiDif

Quaking aspen 21.80 -17.41

Balsam fir 7.24 -7.24

Black spruce 5.34 -5.27

Paper birch 6.65 -5.22

Jack pine 3.36 -1.46

Bigtooth aspen 1.44 -0.93

White spruce 1.19 -0.73

Red pine* 2.35 -0.70

Northern red oak 2.44 -0.26


Bur oak 2.95 2.67

Green ash 2.06 2.31

Red maple 2.57 1.91

Eastern white pine 1.03 0.22

Reduced Habitat Suitability

Increased Habitat Suitability

*Potential for increasing issues with native pine beetles and root diseases affecting red pine

NO ACTION – species composition goal

DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS • Maintain current conditions (red pine dominated)

OBJECTIVES • Maintain current conditions (red pine dominated)

TACTICS

• No harvest • Allow natural processes (stand development) to occur without

management • These stands serve as a reference condition to the other harvested

treatments

Management goal: Allow the forest to respond to climate change in the absence of direct silvicultural intervention

RESISTANCE – species composition goal

DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS • Homogeneous, red-pine dominated, single cohort • Minor species present (current climate-adapted species)

OBJECTIVES • Red pine is 90% of total stocking (basal area) • Minor species represent 10% of stocking

TACTICS • Free thin to 100-120 ft2/ac • Remove primarily red and jack pine to maintain species diversity • Protect regeneration • Reserve large-diameter trees

Management goal: maintain relatively unchanged conditions over time

RESILIENCE – species composition goal

DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS • Red pine dominated, abundance may fluctuate over time • Minor species in greater amounts than current conditions • Increased heterogeneity and structural complexity

OBJECTIVES • Maintain current red pine dominance (50-75% basal area) • Increase future-adapted species over time

TACTICS • Variable density thinning

• 15-20% of the area unthinned in 8-10 ½-acre skips • Cut 15-20% of the area in 8-10 ½-acre gaps; retain 2-3 large-diameter pines • Disperse thin the matrix to 100-120 ft2/ac, removing red and jack pine

• Site prep in gaps with harrow disk • Plant future-adapted species in gaps

Management goal: allow some change in current conditions, but encourage an eventual return to reference conditions

TRANSITION – species composition goal

DESIRED FUTURE CONDITIONS • Increased abundance of future-adapted tree species • Multi-cohort, not pine-dominated, high species diversity with

structural complexity OBJECTIVES

• Reduce red pine stocking to 25-50% • Increase future-adapted species to 50-75%

TACTICS • Irregular shelterwood with expanding gaps (Femelschlag)

• Cut 15-20% of area in 8-10 ½-acre gaps • Thin matrix to 60-80 ft2/ac

• Site prep in gaps with harrow disk • Plant future-adapted species in gaps and matrix • Revisit in 15-20 yrs; expand gaps to enhance regeneration if necessary

Management goal: actions that intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing and new conditions










Red pine* 2.35 -0.70



Bur oak 2.95 2.67

Green ash 2.06 2.31

Red maple 2.57 1.91














Red pine* 2.35 -0.70



Bur oak 2.95 2.67

Green ash 2.06 2.31

Red maple 2.57 1.91


Eastern red cedar 0.00 6.12

White oak 0.00 2.30

Shagbark hickory 0.00 0.86




Resistance


Prom

ote

Chan

ge


Mai

ntai

n cu

rren

t co

nditi

ons

Transition Management Goal: intentionally accommodate change and enable ecosystems to adaptively respond to changing conditions Strategy: reduce red pine, increase future-adapted species

Resilience

Management Goal: maintain relatively unchanged conditions over time Strategy: promote red pine dominance

Management Goal: allow some change in current conditions, but encourage a return to reference conditions Strategy: red pine dominance, increase future-adapted species over time

Spectrum of Adaptive Forest Management Treatments

Future-adapted species: eastern white pine jack pine red oak bur oak red maple

Future-adapted species: eastern white pine eastern red cedar red oak bur oak white oak red maple shagbark hickory ponderosa pine (?)

Key monitoring variables – ASCC Species Composition Forest Health Productivity

Ove

rsto

ry Species richness

Species diversity Relative density Relative dominance

Mortality Crown density Crown dieback Live crown ratio Tree damage (DSI)

Biomass increment Basal area increment

Mid

stor

y

Species richness Species diversity Relative density Relative biomass

Relative density or biomass of invasive species

Biomass increment

Gro

und

La

yer

Species richness Species diversity Percent cover by species

Percent cover of invasive species

Biomass increment

Summary: Adaptation for climate change • Learning from the past will become increasingly important

• However, there is no clear or obvious historical precedent for climate change

• Long-term research is extremely important • Impacts of climate change on forests • Management will need to work with uncertainty • Managing for complexity may increase resilience in northern

forests • Be adaptive and creative in developing solutions

Expand and reenvision your

silvicultural toolbox

For more information: Linda Nagel

Professor & Director [email protected]

Ph: 218-726-6484

Documents

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN …...Reduce climate change impacts . Promote change . Facilitate adaptive responses Maintain current conditions . Adaptation options occupy