THEME 4 PROGRESS REPORTAdapting to Change in the Canadian Arctic: Knowledge Transfer, Policies & Strategies

Theme Leader: Gordon McBeanTheme Coordinator: Jaime Dawson

The University of Western Ontario

Theme 4 Overview

• Focus of Theme 4 is to provide directly relevant information to aid policy and decision makers in the development of policies and strategies for adapting to a changing Arctic environment

• All four themes will contribute to this process• Across the projects evaluations from a variety of social, economic, and political perspectives will

be conducted examining:• natural and human-made hazards, • human health, • communities

• Inuit will be included as partners in research and Inuit Knowledge will be essential to the development of policies and strategies

• Maximizing integration and communication, Theme 4 researchers will work across all themes• Government and Inuit organizations will be consulted to identify their key issues, knowledge gaps

and priorities• Ensure two-way knowledge transfer occurs in the relevant societal and political framework

necessary to affect change and build capacity in the Canadian Arctic

4.1 Projecting into the Future: The Canadian Arctic Environment, Tomorrow to 2100

D. Barber (PL), J. Anderson, G. Flato, J. Hanesiak, F. Saucier C. Tang, D. Holland (USA), W. Maslowski (USA), A. Willmont (UK)

Approach:

•Four regional Models•Themes 1-3 (Baffin Bay, NWP, Southern Beaufort Sea, Hudson Bay)

•Hemispheric Model (CCMA) with downscaling•Atmospheric Regional Climate Model (MM5, GEM)•Couple efforts to recently funded CCAF modeling project lead by CIS (ship navigation).

Approach:

• Two way science link (link to other NCE projects)

• Two way indigenous peoples link (links to other NCE projects)

• Use of Models rather than development of models

• Systematic Scenarios (2025, 2050, etc; regional comparisons)

• Marine physical-biological coupling

• Northern workshops on the interpretations of modelling

MaslowskiFlato-Holland

Wilmott-Tang

Hanesiak-Saucier

Hemispheric Controls

What is the effect of a changing cyclonic regime of the Beaufort Gyre and Transpolar Drift?

Average SLP Daily ice motion

May 2004 loop

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Lukovich and Barber, 2005

Hemispheric Scale Forcing

Reversal of the Beaufort Gyre occurs more often throughout the year in the decade of the 1990’s than it did in the 80’s. This affects sea ice melt and export.

Mean relative vorticity

-Red (Blue) shades denote cyclonic(anticyclonic) activity

Hemispheric Scale Forcing

MM5 and Cyclone Forcing

Oct Nov Dec

MarchFebJan

April May June

Hemispheric Scale Forcing

Fisico and Hanesiak, 2006

Northern Workshop (January, 2006)

• Resolute Bay and surrounding area• Joint with Canadian Ice Service (CCAF funded)• Objectives are to introduce c• resent information on climate change for this region• Discuss how models can be used in climate change work• Solicit feedback from northern residents as to the types

of modelling output they would find useful

Jay Anderson and Roger DeAbreau lead

4.2 Human Vulnerability to Environmental ChangesBarry Smit, University of Guelph (PL), Frank Duerden (NI)Technical staff: Johanna Wandel, Erica BeasleyPh.D. students: James Ford, Jennifer Turner, Gita LaidlerM.A. students: Tristan Pearce, Erin Prately (completed)Northern staff: Fred Katoyak, Robby Inuktalik, Annie Goose, Mishak Allurut, Kik Shappa, Harry Ittusujurat, Kevin Qrunnut, Audrey Kamanirq, Andrew Dialla

• Vulnerability: exposure to hazards, conditions of people and communities; capacities to prepare for, manage, and be resilient to stresses

Project 4.2 Human Vulnerability to Environmental ChangesFocus: human vulnerability of Arctic coastal communities. Series of linked projects - particular aspects of vulnerability in Nunavut and Inuvialuit:Eastern Arctic (Pangnirtung, Kinngait, Igloolik, Arctic Bay) –field work near completion•Community vulnerability with an emphasis on hunting (Ford), with empirical research in Arctic Bay and Igloolik. Completedfield research in 2004; dissemination and feedback visits to Igloolik and Arctic Bay in April 2005.•Vulnerability related to sea ice use (Laidler), with empirical research in Pangnirtung, Kinngait and Igloolik. Field visits to Pangirtung and Kinngait - interviewing and participant observation through travel on sea ice phase of the research.•Erin Pratley - field work in Arctic Bay in 2004; feedback and dissemination visit in April 2005.

4.2 Human Vulnerability to Environmental ChangesInuvialuit – field work began in 2005: •Community vulnerability with an emphasis on infrastructure (Pearce, Turner) in Tuktoyaktuk, Holman. Inuvialuit Game Council meeting. Visits to potentially interested communities (Tuktoyaktuk, Aklavik, Holman). In-depth field work was conducted in Holman by Pearce in July-August 2005.•Regional scale/secondary source-based vulnerability assessment for Inuvialuit Region (Duerden, Beasley), with data collection in Aklavik, Tuktoyaktuk, Inuvik and Holman to date. Collected secondary data and conducted preliminary research in Aklavik, Tuktoyaktuk and Holman in July 2005. •Jennifer Turner conducted preliminary research in Tuktoyaktuk in July and August 2005.

Methodological development; international circumpolar connections - IPY project

Ronald Stewart, McGill (PL), Gordon McBean (NI)

4.3 Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Meteorological and Related Hazards

Researchers: David Hudak; Bob KochtubajdaProject Staff: Steve Gibson; Erin Roberts; Shari GearhardPostdoctoral researcher:William Henson; Nikolaj Nawri

Studies: orographic low-level jets within Frobisher Bay; freezing rain in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Characterizing and mapping hazards across the Canadian Arctic. •re-analysis and satellite datasets to examine Arctic weather hazards collectively and to relate them to weather conditions on larger scales. •combined impacts of simultaneously occurring severe weather events;•future climate scenarios.

4.3 Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Meteorological and Related Hazards

Field project: local characteristics of severe winter storms at Iqaluit.• impact of the surrounding orographyand the proximity to the coast on the weather at Iqaluit. •properties of snow and their relationship with atmospheric characteristics

4.3 Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Meteorological and Related HazardsSurface weather station -planning future subdivision.Future field studies•Pangnirtung and Kimmirut. •short-term measurements on an island in Frobisher Bay within 40 km of Iqaluit, both before and after freeze-up.

Laurie Chan, McGill (PL); Chris Furgal, Laval (PL)

4.4 Climate Change, Key Traditional Food Species and Community Health in the Arctic

Investigator: Murray HumphriesGraduate student (MSc): Judith Alain; Alice Li; Tanya NancarrowResearch (Technical) staff: Martin Tremblay (PhD-student); Caroline Larivée (regional planning); Carole Blanchet (nutritionist); Sandra Owens (community health); Tomoko Nakano (nutritionist); HaiPing Xue (statistician); Rula Soueida (data analyst)Partner : Scott Nickels (ITK)

4.4 Climate Change, Key Traditional Food Species and Community Health in the ArcticClimate change and food security: Perpsectives from Inuit

Harvesters Ivujivik, Nunavik (lead Furgal)Consultation with Municipal Council and Ivujivik HFTA Identification of community researcher/professional hunter- data collectionQuantitative analysis - 1992 Inuit Health Survey Data for identification of

key species for Ivujivik population based on criteria : nutrient contribution, contaminant exposure, frequency of consumption (summer of 2005).

Finalisation and translation of data collection tools.Field operation preparation and training – Ivujivik, fall. Recruitment of Informants and collection of information Iterative data analysis - late spring 2006 as data is gathered and recorded.Analysis and initial reporting to the community - winter / spring of 2006/07.

4.4 Climate Change, Key Traditional Food Species and Community Health in the Arctic

J Alain community wide survey to assess the relationship between key vulnerability factors, including those related to environment, and household vulnerability for traditional food security.

Study in Nunavut (lead Chan)Chen and GS (T. Nancarrow) visited Repulse Bay, Pelley Bay,

signed a research agreement and conducted a 2-day workshop. Recruited two local research assistants and collected dietary information.

Tomoko finished studying the relationship between the Nunavut harvest data to the CINE dietary information.

Alice finished developing the model to study the impact of changes of traditional diet on nutrient and contaminant intake.

4.5 Surveillance and Management of Climate Change Impacts in the North: Implications for northern public health policy and infrastructure

Public Health Research InitiativePierre Gosselin, LAVAL, INSPQ (PL); Chris Furgal, LAVAL, URSPMaster’s student : Isabelle Champagne-ShieldsTechnical research staff : Ludivine Chateau-Degat, Daniel Martin, Barbara ArmstrongFour case studies across the Inuit regions on the state of public health surveillance systems and their interface with environmental monitoring. In 2005-2006: the case study protocol has been refined and finalised; communication with northern public health managers has been ongoing; one research associate or student for each ofthe four studies has been hired and trained;

4.5 Surveillance and Management of Climate Change Impacts in the North: Implications for northern public health policy and infrastructureField work /information collection is underway in all four regions (Labrador, Nunavik, Nunavut, Inuvialuit)Case study drafts are expected January-February;Workshops planning will commence in January with all four taking place by mid-summer.Discussions for a joint pilot project on the surveillance of gastro-enteritis in Nunavik are underway in collaboration with project 2.3 (Benoît Lévesque) and Nunavik Health authority; field work to begin by summer 2006.

4.5 Environmental and Health Surveillance

Gordon McBean, Western Ontario (PL); Leslie King, Manitoba (NI); John Stone, Carleton (NI); Collaborators: Karen Kraft-Sloan, FAC; Leslie Whitby, INAC; Bruce Rigby, GN; T. Fenge, ICC; Ron Stewart (4.3); Laurie Chen (4.4).

4.7 Science to Policy-Makers and People

Research Associate: Jaime Dawson, UWO MA students: Davin Budreau, UWO; Rhonda Pankratz(Manitoba)PhD students : David Brock, UWO

Project 4.7 Science to Policy-Makers and People

• Interactions - internationally, nationally, regionally, community-level. Two-way transfer of information.

• Research on the institutions and processes of science-policy interactions. – focus on formal institutions

• Interactions at community level – 4.2, 4.3, 4.4 and others. • Assist ArcticNet in science-policy links• Key research questions:

– what are the key institutions – governmental, Land-claims agreements, scientific, other;

– what are their general processes of interactions and where or does science fit in these;

– what constitutes good and effective science-policy exchange, what are measures of success, and what techniques can be used to make the process more effective.

Project 4.7 Science to Policy-Makers and People• Project 4.7 was a co-sponsor of the “From Research to Action

Workshop” 3-4 November, 2005, in Ottawa, that brought together about 70 participants to discuss this issue. A full report is in preparation.

• Members of the Project 4.7 team have been effectively participating in the science-policy dialogue.

• McBean:– “A Transatlantic Symposium – Meeting the Climate Challenge

in the Arctic Region”, Washington; “March Quest”, Winnipeg; – Invited Participant: Northern Strategy Meeting, Iqaluit, 28-29

April, 2005. – Invited Speaker and panel member, “Strengthening Climate

Cooperation, Compliance & Coherence”. – principal signatory – with 49 other climate science leaders – of

Letter to Prime Minister on Climate Change Science, 1 December 2005.

– Invited participant and opening speaker: Meeting our Global Responsibilities Canada as leader on climate change; Executive Forum on Climate Change, Montreal 2005

Project 4.7 Science to Policy-Makers and People

• King:– Project 4.7 display at CoP11– ICARP – member - WG on Science-Policy– Arctic Human Development Report

• L. King – indicators, monitoring, Churchill workshop– Institutional Dimensions of GEC – 2 regions – Arctic

• Chair – synthesis report– Arctic Day – “Right to Be Cold”– University of the Arctic – cross-cutting theme – outreach, …

• Stone– IPCC Working Group II Bureau– IAI Science-Policy workshop– …

• Science to Policy-Makers and People• 2006 – interviews, consultations and meetings in north• 2007/08 – major conference in north – IPY (?)• Analysis of institutions and processes

Integrated Regional Impact Studies – IRISTheme 4 – no “region” – contribute across ArcticNetMethodology, approaches, integration, policy

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

NationalInternational

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