© 2007 www.holmgren.com.au8/09/16 © 2006 www.holmgren.com.au 1

aaddaapptteedd ttoo eenneerrggyy ddeesscceenntt ffuuttuurreess

FFuuttuurree ooff FFoooodd CCoonnffeerreenncceeMMAAVV MMeellbboouurree SSeepptt 22001166

DDaavviidd HHoollmmggrreenn ccoo--oorriiggiinnaattoorr ooff tthhee ppeerrmmaaccuullttuurree ccoonncceepptt

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Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution

Climax (post-modern cultural chaos)

Techno-Explosion

Techno-Stability

Energydescent

Collapse

Great Grand Children

Agriculture 10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom Old Growth Forest

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

WWhhaatt IIss EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt??  Decline in NET energy available to support humanity

  A gentle decline like a balloon coming back to earth as the most hopeful future.

  Mirrors energy ascent; very fast over several decades, and then more slowly over several centuries

  Rate of change appears greater due to radical change in direction (permanent economic contraction)

  History of past civilisations suggests a stepwise descent with stable states separated by crises

PPeerrmmaaccuullttuurree,, TTrraannssiittiioonn && EEDDAAPP

ccoommppaarreedd ttoo mmaaiinnssttrreeaamm SSuussttaaiinnaabbiilliittyy

Mainstream sustainability

Permaculture, Transition & Energy Descent Action Planning

View of future Techno-stability Energy Descent

Goal Minimising impact Increasing resilience

Strategy Reform existing systems from top down

Build parallel system from bottom up

Process Policies, planning & economics Self organising, practical, cultural, spiritual

Focus Built environment & technology Biological and behavioural systems.

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CClliimmaattee CChhaannggee && PPeeaakk OOiill ddrriivvee EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt SScceennaarriiooss

Benign

Destructive

Climate Change

Slow Oil Decline 2% Fast Oil Decline 10%

2005

73 73

2005

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GGlloobbaall GGrreeeenn DDiivviiddee

IInncclluuddiinngg GGrreeeenn RReeggrroowwtthh YYeeaarrss

22003355––22005599 EEaarrtthh SStteewwaarrddEEccoo--tteecchhnniicc

Glo

bal G

HG

em

issio

ns &

net

ene

rgy/

pers

onGGrreeeenn TTeecchh EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt PPaatthhwwaayy

2008-2026 1st Great Depression

Central Vic Bushfires & Drought

2060-2070 Southern Australian federation

End of globalisation 2nd Great Depression

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PPrrooppeerrttyy pprriiccee ccoollllaappssee,,

&& nnaanncciiaall ccrriissiiss

Gold and silver Intrinsic tender

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✗✗✗✗

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✗✗

✗✗

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NNoorrtthheerrnn VViiccttoorriiaann iirrrriiggaatteedd aaggrriiccuullttuurree??

Eppalock catchment 10% reduction rainfall > 90% reduction in yield!!!

Lake Eppalock 2007

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SSaallvvaaggee llooggggiinngg && rreeggrroowwtthh mmaannaaggeemmeenntt

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RReettrrooSSuubbuurrbbiiaatthhee hheeaarrttllaanndd ooff ggaarrddeenn ffaarrmmiinngg

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MMoonneettaarryy ttrraannssaaccttiioonnss ddoommiinnaattee eeccoonnoommyy aatt EEnneerrggyy PPeeaakk 22000077

10 5

20

40

25 Household Community Institutional Corporate Business

Monetary economy 50

20

10 5

15 Household Community Institutional Corporate Business

Non-monetary economy

NNoonn--mmoonneettaarryy ttrraannssaaccttiioonnss ddoommiinnaattee

eeccoonnoommyy iinn EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt 22003355

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Container Courtyard Suburban Grazing Rangeland, Forestry, Reserve

1m2 10m2 100m2 1000m2 1 ha 10ha 100ha 1000ha 10,000ha+

Sunshine

Rainfall/water

Soil

Rural Resid. Com. Hort.

Broadacre Cropping

AAggrriiccuullttuurraall LLaanndd UUssee

Land Use System Area %

Value of Food %

Horticulture/Aquaculture

10 25

Field Crops 20 25Tree Crops 20 25Animal Husbandry 50 25

PPeerrmmaaccuullttuurree SSiittee PPllaannnniinngg ZZoonneess

Spatial patterns and placement principles:  Used to organize data about the

site into useful patterns and provide a framework for a concept plan.  Concentric Zones of intensity

of use (human energies)  Radial Sectors of wild energies  Slope: Use of gravity as a

lateral force.  Infrastructure: overlaid

structures of human controlled energies

BBiioorreeggiioonnaall AAggrriiccuullttuurraall ZZoonneess

Zone size  Rural zones

larger but lower yields/ha, most managed by animals  Urban zones

smaller but highest yield/ha most managed by people

0 Urban/ Indust

1 Garden

Ag

2 Urban

Ag

3 Arable

Farmland

4 Managed

rangelands & forest

5 Reserve

Return flow of Nutrients to

Farms Net flow of

Produce to Towns Comparative advantage in

perishable, high input, high value,

intensive production

Garden farming in the household

economy & commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock

products

Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production

Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock

products and some tree crops for commercial sale through local &

central markets

ZZoonnee 00 UUrrbbaann && IInndduussttrriiaallArea % 2Typical Yields Mushrooms, Fish

Greens/Sprouts Ferments

Value of yields as % of diet

10

ZZoonnee 11 GGaarrddeenn FFaarrmmiinnggArea % 5Typical Yields Vegies, Fruit,

Eggs, Meat

Value of yields as % of diet

20

ZZoonnee 22 UUrrbbaann AAggrriiccuullttuurreeArea % 5Typical Yields Staple crops,

(potatoes, corn, pumpkins)Eggs, dairy

Value of yields as % of diet

20

UUrrbbaann AAggrriiccuullttuurree OOppppoorrttuunniissttiicc iirrrriiggaattiioonn uussiinngg ssttoorrmmwwaatteerr

UUrrbbaann AAggrriiccuullttuurree aatt tthhee eeddggee

ZZoonnee 33 RRuurraall AAggrriiccuullttuurree

Area % 30Typical Yields Dryland grains,legumes,

oil seeds ,dairy, meat, Value of yields as % of diet 30

ZZoonnee 44 RRaannggeellaannddss && FFoorreessttArea % 50Typical Yields meat, wool,

honey timber, fuel

Value of yields as % of diet

20

FFuuttuurree FFaarrmmiinngg ZZoonneessZone Area

%Typical Yields Value of yields

as % of total diet

0. urban 2 Fish, greens, sprouts mushrooms, ferments,

10

1. garden farming

5 Vegetables, fruit, eggs, meat, honey

20

2. urban agriculture

5 Main crop, dairy, eggs 20

3. rural farming

30 Dryland grains, legumes, oil seeds, nuts, tree crops, dairy meat,

30

4. forestry & range

50 Timber, fuel wool, meat, honey

20

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LLaanndd UUssee AAllllooccaattiioonn ffoorr EEnneerrggyy DDeesscceenntt FFoooodd AAgg

Zone 3/4/5Rural/Commercial

Dryland staple grains, legumes & oil seeds

from prime arable land

Fruit, Vegetables & nursery

Domestic & wild grazing animals (meat, & dairy ) from non arable land

Poultry, Bees Rabbits

Nuts, olives & fruit tree crops

Garden farming in the household economy and commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock products,

Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock products and some tree crops for commercial sale

through local & central markets

Quadrant size is indicative product of relative area & economic value for Australian food system in energy descent

Net flow of produce to

towns, Return flow of Nutrients to

farms

Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production

Comparative advantage in perishable, high input, high value, intensive production

Animals Tree Crops

Field Crops

Zone 0.Urban

Zone 1/2 Suburban Garden & Urban Ag

Aquaponics, Mushrooms

Fodder, Fibre, Fuel, Timber and other non food land uses

26

RReeffeerreenncceess aanndd RReessoouurrcceess

www.holmgren.com.au Landuse Patterns for Growing Abundance in the energy descent future History from the future: A prosperous Way Down

for Energy Descent Future Essay & Presentation Permaculture: principles & pathways beyond sustainability 2002 Future Scenarios; how communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change 2008 Money vs Fossil Energy; the battle for the control of the world 2010 Energy Descent Action Planning; report to Hepburn Shire 2011 Crash On Demand; welcome to the brown tech future 2013

www.retrosuburbia.com