Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Reporting on Adaptation Anna Beswick Sophie Turner 2 nd July

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer

Reporting on Adaptation

Anna BeswickSophie Turner

2nd July 2015

Stirling

Public Bodies Climate Change Duties


provides advice and support to help organisations, businesses and communities in Scotland prepare for, and build resilience to, the impacts of climate change

• providing information on recent and future climate trends;

• helping private and public sector organisations and communities to understand how future climate change will affect them; and

• helping private and public sector organisations and communities to develop a planned approach to adaptation.

Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and

delivered by Sniffer


Overview

13:30 – 14:00 Introduction

14:00 – 14:45 Assessing climate risk

14:45 – 15:15 Reporting on climate risk

15:15 – 15:45 Taking action

15:45 – 16:10 Monitor and review

16:10 – 16:30 Questions and discussion


Introduction


Introduction

• Aims• Introduction to adaptation• Adaptation planning process


Aims

• Aware of what each of the adaptation questions are asking.

• Aware of how to complete the questions.• Opportunity to ask questions and compare

approaches with colleagues.


Introduction to adaptation


Climate is changing.


Weather affects us.‘Prices of everyday staples such as bread, flour and beer are set to rise sharply after Russia imposed a ban on grain exports’ Financial Times, August 2010


Long term trends in Scotland


Long term trends in Scotland


Are we ‘adapted’ to today’s climate?

We need adaptation to present weather and climate.

But what about adaptation to future climate change?


Adaptation: The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.

Draft Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (2013)

What is adaptation?

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

Scotland has access to world leading information – the UK Climate Projections - about how our climate is likely to change over this century.

Over the last few decades we have seen remarkable progress in our understanding of climate – and how humans are changing it...

... and we continue to improve on this.

What do we know about Scotland’s future climate?

Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2020’s – 2080’s

Warmer


+2.8°C(+1.3 to 4.4°C)2050s

What difference do a few degrees make?

+4.3°C(+2.4 to 6.8°C)2080s

London was 3.0°C warmer than Glasgow(in baseline 1961-1990)

So summer temperatures may be more similar to those in south of England by the 2050s...

... and potentially more like those currently experienced in Southern Europe (>4°C)

*The projected values are for summer mean temperature under high emissions scenario

% Change in winter rainfall 2020’s – 2080’s

Wetter

The key long-term climate change trends for Scotland are:• Weather will remain variable, it may become more variable• Typical summer is hotter and drier • Typical winter / autumn is milder and wetter

We can also expect to see:• Increase in summer heat waves, extreme temperatures and drought• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events• Reduced occurrence of frost and snowfall• Sea level rise


What impact will it have?

Key consequences for Scotland

The health of our natural environment

The performance of our buildings

The increased risk of flooding

The change at our coast

The health of our marine environment

Our cultural heritage and Identity

The security and efficiency of our energy supply

Infrastructure – Network Connectivity and Interdependencies


Response

• Climate Change Act (2008) • UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

• Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 • Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme • Public Bodies Climate Change Duties


• Civil Contingencies Act (2004)• National Planning Framework 3• Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009• Marine (Scotland) Act 2010• Scottish Forestry Strategy 2006

Response


Adaptation planning process


Five steps to managing your climate risks

• Accessible entry point for public bodies.

• Step by step approach.

• Transition to assessing risk over longer timescales.

• Partnership working.



Part C: Governance, Management and Strategy• 2a How is climate change governed in the

organisation?• 2b How is climate change managed and delivered

by the organisation?• 2c Does the organisation have specific climate

change mitigation and adaptation objectives in its corporate plan or similar document?


4a. Has the organisations assessed current and future climate related risks?


4a. Has the organisations assessed current and future climate related risks?

4c. What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change?

4d. Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme?


4b. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to manage climate-related risks?


4e. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks?

4f. What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?



Assessing current and future climate risk

Sophie TurnerAdaptation Scotland – Project Co-ordinator


Has the organisation assessed current and future climate-related risks?


Overview

• Vulnerability, impact, likelihood and risk • Difference between current and future

climate-related risks• Examples of risk assessments relevant to

climate change adaptation

Look out for the star!


Where this fits within the five steps…

1. Defining the challenge2a. Understanding weather impacts2b. Climate impact assessment3a. Climate risk assessment3b. Action plan 4. Report and implement 5. Monitor and review



1. Assess your organisations current climate vulnerability

a) How have previous weather events affected your organisation?

b) How well did your organisation cope?

c) Can you identify any critical thresholds?


18


Site specific flood risk assessments


2. Assess your organisations future climate vulnerability

a) How is the climate expected to change?b) What are the main climate impacts for my

sector or location?c) Are there indirect climate impacts to

consider?


Projected changes in summer and winter temperature and precipitation for Scotland (2050s – medium emissions scenario)

42


18


4. Assess the impacts on your organisation

a) What are the current climate-related threats?b) What are the future climate-related threats?c) What are you already doing well to manage these

threats and what are your organisation’s strengths?d) What are the barriers to managing these threats

(weaknesses)?e) What opportunities does this present for your

organisation?f) What more do you need to do to manage the

threats?


17Timely delivery of meals to vulnerable residents

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes


4. Identify the likely impacts on your organisation

a) What are the current climate-related threats?b) What are the future climate-related threats?c) What are you already doing well to manage these

threats and what are our organisation’s strengths?d) What are the barriers to managing these threats

(weaknesses)?e) What opportunities does this present for your

organisation?f) What more do you need to do to manage the

threats?

19


NHS Climate Impact Assessment




5. Assess your organisations climate risks

a) What risks do these climate impacts present?

b) Will climate risks be more or less important than others?

c) What are the priority risks that need an adaptation response?


A climate risk assessment involves…

• Identifying your threats and opportunities (impacts) and the consequences these have on your organisation

• Assigning a likelihood rating to each impact• Assigning a consequence value to each impact • Calculating the risk rating by…


27


In depth climate change risk assessments

Property and housing


Property and housing


5. Assess your organisations climate risks

a) What risks do these climate impacts present?

b) Will climate risks be more or less important than others?

c) What are the priority risks that need an adaptation response?


Discussion questions

• How is you organisation currently assessing current and future climate risks?

• What will you report against this question?


Reporting on Climate Risk

Anna BeswickAdaptation Scotland Manager


What arrangements does the organisation have in place to manage climate related risks?



• Strategies, frameworks, action plans, policies and proposals that that enable and/ or include adaptation actions.

• Adaptation is cross cutting – can be found across many planning and policy areas.

• Climate change adaptation strategy/ framework/ action plan.

• General sustainability / climate change strategy/ action plan.

• Strategies/ plans policies relating to business continuity, asset management, infrastructure, biodiversity, forestry, flood risk management, land use, development, regeneration, and emergency planning.


Assessing the impact of climate change

Undertake a climate change risk assessment

Modify conservation strategies and target priority sites where necessary.

Input climate change factors into estate management strategies and business continuity planning



Placemaking Policy PM1A: Development must contribute positively, to the quality of the surrounding built and natural environment. All development should be planned and designed with reference to climate change, mitigation and adaptation.

Adaptation to Climate Change: Flood Risk4.3.17 Adaptation to risks and opportunities generated by our changing climate will be primarily achieved through guiding development to locations which do not flood, or increase flood risk elsewhere, and offer greater protection from impacts such as erosion, storms, water shortages and subsidence.


NHS

• Sustainable Development Action Plan – adaptation section and actions included

• Climate Change Impact Assessments – include potential actions.


What arrangements does your organisation have in place to manage climate related risks?


Taking Action



Taking action

What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change?

Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (“the Programme”)?


Taking action

What action has the organisation taken to adapt to climate change?


Taking action

Action to adapt to the impacts of climate change includes work to:

Build adaptive capacity Deliver adaptation actions


Build adaptive capacity

• Increase the organisations capacity to understand and make decisions that will enable it to adapt to climate change.


• Raising awareness of the need to adapt among staff, customers and stakeholder organisations.

• Participating in training that increases knowledge of how to adapt to climate change.

Assessing climate risks though in house risk assessments and/or commissioning specialist research.

Developing policies and plans that address climate risks, for example addressing the need to adapt to climate change through planning and placemaking.

Participating in cross sector/organisation partnerships /projects that enable increased understanding of climate risks and joint action to address these.


Deliver adaptation actions

‘On the ground’ delivery of actions that increase the organisations ability to adapt to future climate change.


Deliver adaptation actions

Introduction/ improvement of green infrastructure (e.g.street trees, high quality green spaces, green roofs, green walls) that contributes to reducing flooding and overheating risk and, supports nature to adapt.

Introduction of natural flood risk management and/or managed coastal realignment.

Factor in climate change adaptation as part of designing and implementing new assets/ buildings/ infrastructure/ areas of public realm.


Retrofit existing buildings, assets and public realm to increase ability to adapt to climate change.

Hard engineering solutions, for example, measures to reduce the impacts of heavy rainfall, overheating and severe weather on buildings, flood prevention infrastructure and, measures to reduce the risk of landslides impacting road and rail networks.


Where applicable, what progress has the organisation made in delivering the policies and proposals included in the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (“the Programme”)?




SCCAP progress

Review policies and proposals listed under each of the strategic objectives contained within the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme.

Identify those where it is listed under the ‘who will deliver?’ column.

For each policy and/ or proposal where it is listed under the ‘who will deliver?’ report progress against delivery of the specified policy/ proposal.


Monitor, review and evaluate



What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks?

What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?


Overview

• Defining monitoring, reviewing and evaluation• Where does M&E fit in the Five steps?• What is the purpose of M&E?• Types of evaluation• What am I evaluating?• Indicators• What are we measuring against?• How would we know what success looks like?


What arrangements does the organisation have in place to review current and future climate risks?

What arrangements does the organisation have in place to monitor and evaluate the impact of the adaptation actions?


Terminology

Monitoring

The systematic collection of data during a project to track the progress of adaptation actions and make adjustments to the implementation where necessary.

(Lamhauge, N., E. Lanzi and S. Agrawala (2012), “Monitoring and Evaluation for Adaptation: Lessons from Development Co-operation Agencies”, OECD

Environment Working Papers, No. 38, OECD Publishing.)


Terminology

Reviewing Can be undertaken at a critical milestone or in response to specific issues. They provide a snapshot of an initiative to assess the progress of the implementation.

Evaluation Usually undertaken after the implementation is complete.


Where does M&E fit in the Five steps?

Adaptation is an iterative process that calls for close monitoring and regular review to ensure your organisation is ‘adapting well’.

Define the challenge

Assess climate threats and

opportunities

Assess climate risks and

identify actions

Report and implement

Monitor, review and

evaluate


What is the purpose of M&E?

1. To evaluate effectiveness2. To assess efficiency3. To understand equity4. To provide accountability 5. To assess outcomes 6. To improve learning7. To improve future activities or projects8. To compare with other similar activities or

projectsPringle, P. 2011. AdaptME: Adaptation

monitoring and evaluation. UKCIP, Oxford, UK.


Types of evaluation

A formative evaluation is used to inform decisions about improvement, to evaluate a project’s development and to learn about incremental changes. It is often done during the implementation of an adaptation initiative.

A summative evaluation assesses the overall effectiveness of an initiative and informs decisions about whether to continue or end a project. It is usually conducted when the adaptation initiative is complete.


What am I evaluating?

Building Adaptive Capacity involves developing an organisation’s capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Delivering Adaptation Actions involves taking practical actions to directly reduce or manage the impacts of climate change, to address non-climatic factors contributing to vulnerability or to exploit positive opportunities.


Indicators

S - SpecificM - MeasureableA- AgreedR - RelevantT - Time-bound


What are we measuring against?

Ways of measuring adaptation performance:

1. Against the objectives of the intervention2. Against the understanding of good

adaptation 3. Against a baseline


Traffic Light Assessment

• One way to report on adaptation is based on the level of implementation.


How would we know what success looks like?

‘Adaptation success’ is generally perceived to be an all-or-nothing situation;

An adaptation initiative either turns out to be successful by achieving a set

target or it doesn’t (meaning it failed).


How would we know what success looks like?

• This encourages decision-makers to only agree to an adaptation option where fully achieving the set goal is the likely end result.

• This is contrary to adaptation needing to be flexible and iterative.

• It rules out experimentation, where learning from ‘failures’ or partial successes is part of the process and should therefore be encouraged.


@AdaptationScot

www.adaptationscotland.org.uk

[email protected]

- please contact us -

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Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government and delivered by Sniffer Reporting on Adaptation Anna Beswick Sophie Turner 2 nd July