Adaptation in Action: Options and strategies in Bangkok

Adaptation in Action:Options and strategies in Bangkok

S M WahidAdvisor, WB Bangkok CC study

Asian Institute of Technology

Future climate and Bangkok

Changes in temperature

Snow and ice melt

Changes in precipitation and

evapotranspiration

Sea level rise

Changes in watershed runoff

Backwater effect of tides

Changes in flood (depth and duration)

Changes in storm surge

Changes in the

Infrastructure

InhabitantsBuilding and

housingTransportation

Public health

EnergyWater supply and sanitation

Changes in land

subsidence

Climate change scenarios

Description Flood from Precipitation at Return Period

10 year 30 year 100 year

1 Current 2008 C2008-T10 C2008-T30 C2008-T100

2 Future in 2050 with land subsidence C2050-LS-T10 C2050-LS-T30 C2050-LS-T100

3Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, and A1FI

C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T10

C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T30

C2050-LS-SR-A1F1-T100

4Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, and B1

C2050-LS-SR-B1-T10

C2050-LS-SR-B1-T30

C2050-LS-SR-B1-T100

5Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, storm surge, and A1FI

C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1F1-T10



6Future in 2050 with land subsidence, sea level rise, storm surge, and B1

C2050-LS-SR-SS-B1-T100

Notes:•Current 2008 with existing flood protection infrastructures•Future 2050 with the planned flood protection infrastructures•Case A1 FI: temperature increases 1.9oC, precipitation increases 3%, and sea level rises 0.29 m. (from JBIC)•Case B1: temperature increases 1.2oC, precipitation increases 2%, and sea level rises 0.19 m. (from JBIC)•Strom surge: adding 0.61 m (estimated by Watana, 2005) on the crown of the maximum sea level

Flood volume and peak

30 year return period 100 year return period

2008 A1FI B1 2008 A1FI B1

C.2 Gauging Station (Upstream of Bangkok City)

Flood Volume (MCM) 31,258 32,200 31,965 39,960 41,150 40,839

Factor Increase 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.03 1.02

Flood Peak (m 3/sec) 4,801 5,054 4,976 6,853 7,146 7,065

Factor Increase 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.03

C.13 Gauging Station (Downstream of Bangkok City)

Flood Volume (MCM) 27,756 28,485 28,235 36,997 38,378 38,019

Factor Increase 1.00 1.03 1.02 1.00 1.04 1.03

Flood Peak (m 3/sec) 4,484 4,720 4,646 6,399 6,673 6,598

Factor Increase 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.03

Precipitation increase by 3% (A1FI) and 2% (B1) – Flood volumes increase at about the same percentage Flood peaks increase more due to the unequal travel times of flood

Inundated area for 30-Year Flood C2050-LS-T30

C2050-LS-SR-B1

C2050-LS-SR-A1FI

C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI

Increase from 2008 (km2)

18.43

168.16

183.55

193.97

Increase from 2008 (%)

3.35 30.55 33.35 35.24

In terms of flood volume,30-year return period flood in 2008 = flood in 1995

Inundated Area in 2050 Increased from 2008 by:

Land Subsidence (LS) = 3.35%

Increase due to Sea Level Rise (SR)+ B1 = 27.2%

Increase due to Sea Level Rise (SR)+ A1FI = 30%

Increase due to Storm Surge (SS) = 1.89%

Max. inundation for 30-Year Flood

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

Bangkok

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Sakhon

Samut Prakan

Nakhon Pathom

620000

620000

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

7000001480

000

1480

000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

1560

000

1560

000

1580

000

1580

000

Legend

Elevation (m.MSL)

-7 - -5

-5 - -3

-3 - -1

-1 - 0

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 8

8 - 10

10 - 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

25 - 35

!( Province

Province Boundary

River/Canal Network

Max. Water Depth (cm)

0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 300

300 - 400

> 400

Ê0 4 8 12 162

Kilometers

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

Bangkok

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Sakhon

Samut Prakan

Nakhon Pathom

620000

620000

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

7000001480

000

1480

000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

1560

000

1560

000

1580

000

1580

000

Legend

!( Province

Province Boundary

River/Canal Network

Elevation (m.MSL)

-7 - -5

-5 - -3

-3 - -1

-1 - 0

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 8

8 - 10

10 - 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

25 - 35

Ma. Water Depth (cm)

0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 300

300 - 400

> 400

Ê0 4 8 12 162

KilometersC2008-T30 C2050-LS-SR-A1FI-T30

Eastern part - mostly protected except some areas where the crest elevations of dikes are not high enough

Western part crest elevations of dikes are not high enough to protect the flood and sea level rise especially in the west and south of the area

C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30

Storm surge effect into the CP river

Impact assessment

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G u l f o f T h a i l a n d

36,742

Bang Bo

Bang Phli

Phra Samut Chedi

Mueang Samut Prakan

Bang Sao Thong

Phra Pradaeng

Nong Chok

Lat Krabang

Khlong Sam Wa

Bang Khun Thian

Prawet

Min Buri

Sai Mai

Bang Khae

Lak Si

Taling Chan

Bang Bon

Bang Khen

Chatuchak

Lat Phrao

Bang KapiThawi Watthana

Bueng Kum

Thung Khru

Bang Na

Chom Thong

Suan Luang

Don Mueang

Huai Khwang

Dusit

Phasi Charoen

Saphan Sung

Watthana

Bang Sue

Rat Burana

Khlong Toei

Phra Khanong

Sathon

Pathum Wan

Nong Khaem

Khan Na Yao

Wang Thonglang

Yan Nawa

Bangkok Noi

Bang Phlat Phaya Thai

Thon Buri

Ratchathewi

Bang Kho Laem

Khlong San

Bangkok Yai

Din Daeng

Phra Nakhon

Bang Rak

Pom Prap Sattru Phai

Samphanthawong

Bangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

7

15,095

109,829

1,317

735

66,085

25,274

39,978

181,999

1,163

13,558

58,478

106,885

58,491

8,075

10,129

857

148,628

52,425

114,058

3,123

41,004

3,342

75,964

6,162

271,044

8,447

105,891

17,636

88,635

138,272

96,348

87,503

152,272

2,363

16,546

64,336

47,948

35,968

26,075

524

23,601

141,220

39,131

1,155

132,532

50,546

49,935

235,242

14,673

9,564

55,056

27,683

159,845

73,529

3,098

9,479

62,043

186,481

59,618

1,704

134,641

5,692

57,701

1,470

94,044

298,254

7,443

19,219

30,133

125,746

165,546

117,062

109,529

122,672

97,828

6,636

190,772

73,220

54,248

112,68545,090

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

Ê

Maximum Water Depth in

Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30 (cm.)

0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

LegendNumber of Affected Population(people)Province!P

Province Boundary

District Boundary

Water Body


C2008-T30

An additional 0.68 million people may be living in flooded area in the future due to climate change

Flooded population

Additional (due to CC) 0.25 million people are from 5 districts (Lak Si,

Sa Thon, Khlong San, Yannawa, Nong Chok)

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Bangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

Ê

Legend

Prov ince!P#* Condensed Housing

Prov ince Boundary

Dis tric t Boundary

Water Body



0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

Condensed housing(>94 units/ha or >15 units/rai)

Large daily wage earning population in condensed housing may loose income

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Bang Bo

Bang Phli

Phra Samut Chedi

Mueang Samut Prakan

Bang Sao Thong

Phra Pradaeng

Nong Chok

Lat Krabang

Khlong Sam Wa

Bang Khun Thian

Prawet

Min Buri

Sai Mai

Bang Khae

Lak Si

Taling Chan

Bang Bon

Bang Khen

Chatuchak

Lat Phrao

Bang KapiThawi Watthana

Bueng Kum

Thung Khru

Bang Na

Chom Thong

Suan Luang

Don Mueang

Huai Khwang

Dusit

Phasi Charoen

Saphan Sung

Watthana

Bang Sue

Rat Burana

Khlong Toei

Phra Khanong

Sathon

Pathum Wan

Nong Khaem

Khan Na Yao

Wang Thonglang

Yan Nawa

Bangkok Noi

Bang Phlat Phaya Thai

Thon Buri

Ratchathewi

Bang Kho Laem

Khlong San

Bangkok Yai

Din Daeng

Phra Nakhon

Bang Rak


Samphanthawong

Bangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

4

5,774

15,883

2,969

575

32,707

4,211

6,966

18,372

582

2,240

9,560

17,397

1,886

1,466

1,258

28,826

7,691

540

157

19,9286,999

482

943

36,703

11,690

2,094

2,779

15,371

8,021

7,784

23,316

577

20,665

4,84512,930

6,793

10,107

5,223

12,199

602

35,516

13,033

83,479 27,251

1,154

17,874

82,008

14,090

5,051

2,771

17,453

18,069

53,885

26,619

1,043

3,420

20,026

81,299

596

42,019

458

18,702

2,389

19,330

89,643

29,384

5,985

2,966

43,712

54,482

15,844

52,365

25,645

42,766

67,212

32,485

3,567

27,004

40,120

21,668

8,811

14,194

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000



0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

Ê

LegendNumber of Affected Building&Housing(building)Province!P

Province Boundary

District Boundary

Water Body


C2008-T30

1.16 million buildings will be vulnerable (inundated >10cm for varying number of days;About 1/3 are in Bang Khun Thian, Bang Bon, Bang Khae and Phra Samut Chedi districts0.9 million are residential building

89,000 building will be flooded in Don Muang in future worst case

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Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

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1520

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1520

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1540

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1540

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0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

Legend

Province!PProvince Boundary

District Boundary

Water Body

Hospital Size

LargeH

MediumH

SmallH

Mostly clinics in Bang Khun Thian, Bang Bon, Bang Khae and Phra Samut Chedi districts are affected

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North Bangkok Power Plant

South Bangkok Power Plant

Samut Prakarn Cogen

MEA Main OfficeBangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

MEA Min Buri District

MEA Bang Phi District

MEA Rat Burana District

MEA Samut Prakarn District

MEA Bang Khen District

MEA Bang Khun Thian District

MEA Bang Kapi District

MEA Thon Buri District

MEA Sam Sen District

MEA Yannawa District

MEA Bang Yai District

MEA Khlong Toei District

MEA Nonthaburi District

MEA Wat Leap District

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

Legend


District Boundary

Serviced District Boundary

"A Power Plant

!! SPP

") MEA District

# Electrical Substation



0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

Ê

NO electrical substation is flooded

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Bang Bo

Bang Phli

Phra Samut Chedi

Mueang Samut Prakan

Bang Sao Thong

Phra Pradaeng

Nong Chok

Lat Krabang

Khlong Sam Wa

Bang Khun Thian

Prawet

Min Buri

Sai Mai

Bang Khae

Lak Si

Taling Chan

Bang Bon

Bang Khen

Chatuchak

Lat Phrao

Bang Kapi

Thawi Watthana

Bueng Kum

Thung Khru

Bang Na

Chom Thong

Suan Luang

Don Mueang

Huai Khwang

Dusit

Phasi Charoen

Saphan Sung

Watthana

Bang Sue

Rat Burana

Khlong Toei

Phra Khanong

Sathon

Pathum Wan

Nong Khaem

Khan Na Yao

Wang Thonglang

Yan Nawa

Bangkok Noi

Bang PhlatPhaya Thai

Thon Buri

Ratchathewi

Bang Kho Laem

Khlong San

Bangkok Yai

Din Daeng

Phra Nakhon

Bang Rak


Samphanthawong

Bangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

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Legend


District Boundary

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Borom Rat Chonnani Rd.

Phet Kasem Rd.

Rama II Rd.

Suk Sawat Rd.

Sukhumwit Rd.

Bang Na-Trat Rd.Burapaviti Expressway

Suwinthawong Rd.

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Ram Inthra Rd.Kaset-Nawamin Rd.

Bangkok

Samut Prakarn

Nonthaburi

Samut Sakhon

Chachoengsao

Nakhon Prathom

Pathum Thani

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

700000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

0 2 4 6 81

Kilometers

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0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

> 200

LegendProvince!PToll PlazaÛ

Province Boundary

Water Body

Primary Highway

Nation Highway within the Province

Secondary Highway

Highway Linking the Provinces

Local Road

Intercity Motorway

Outer Ring Road

Expressway

Road Project

BTS

MRTA

Mass Rapid Transit Project

Change* due to CC in 2050

Inundated area (km2) + 175

Inundated area (%) + 6.9

Flooded pop. (million) + 0.68

Number of flooded residential unit + 200,000

Number of flooded commercial unit + 48,000

Number of flooded industrial unit + 5,000

Number of hospitals/clinics in flood prone area + 33

Road (km) in flood prone area + 450

*Change refers to difference between with and without CC (including SR+SS) in 2050

Impact types

• Direct damage- measurable and often relates to the replacement value of destroyed immovable assets and stocks occur at the time of the disaster or within a short time.

• Indirect damage- not physical but can have negative effect on the economy income loss due to temporary suspension of business or

income loss because of failure to operate normal economic activities - are typical examples of indirect damage.

occur over a period of weeks after the disaster has struck, depending on the time required to achieve “normalization” of activities

Assessed sectors

Damage* type

Sector Damage mechanism

Direct damage

Residential unit Damage to building and asset

Commercial unit Damage to building and asset

Industrial unit Damage to building and asset

Transportation, Public health facilities, Energy, WSS

No direct damage to these infrastructures expected in the future

Indirect damage

Population Loss of income

Commercial unit Loss of income

Industrial unit Loss of income

Transportation Negligible loss of revenue; not included in the assessment

Public health Additional cost of medical care

Energy Loss due to non-operation

Water supply and sanitation Loss of sale

* Only tangible damage taken in the assessment

Direct damage

Flood Depth(cm)

Damage Rate (% of value)

Building Asset

0 – 10 0 0

10 – 50 3 1

50 – 100 5 8

100 – 200 7.5 15

> 200 9 19

TypeAverage Unit Value (Baht)

Residential Commercial Industrial

BMA

Building 882,865 2,768,000 4,555,000

Assets 328,889 1,829,000 3,725,000

Samut Prakarn

Building 810,242 2,768,000 7,787,000

Assets 220,180 1,829,000 3,949,000

Direct damage = No. of affected buildings x Damage rate x Unit value of building and asset

Source: Royal Irrigation Department (RID)

Unit value - average book valueResidential units (building) - legal right registration; Residential units (asset) - Population and Housing Census, 2000; based on 12 durable household appliances; increased by 10 per cent to account for other vulnerable assetsCommercial units (building and assets) - NSO’s 2006 Business Trade and Services SurveyIndustrial units (building and assets) - NSO’s 2007 Industrial CensusDepreciation rate - Department of Treasury

Indirect damage - Population

• Economic hardship of the affected population due to flood People may not have access to their work

places

• Assumptions Daily wage earners living in the condensed

community (slum) would be vulnerable to the indirect impact of flooding.

People living in the condensed community has income below the poverty line of 68 baht/day/person (NESDB, 2007)

• Income loss 68 baht/day/person x number of affected

condensed community (slum) dwellers x flood duration

Indirect damage - commerce

• Loss of income due to business suspension=No. of affected commercial establishment x

Income loss/day/establishment x Flood duration

• Income (value added) = 8,711 baht/day/establishment NSO’s 2006 Business Trade and Services

Survey

• Assume during business suspension due to flooding

10% of average business operating cost (3,781 baht/day) will not be incurred; SO..

• Income loss = 4,930 baht/day/establishment

Indirect damage - industry

• Loss of income due to industry closure during flooding

Industrial income loss = No. of affected industrial establishment x Income loss/day/establishment x Flood duration

• Average value added income = 20,274 and 63,014 baht/day/industry for Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively

• Assumption –during industrial closure 10% of average operating costs - 5,601 and 18,971 baht Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively - will not be paid

• Income loss - 14,673 and 44,043 baht/day/industry in Bangkok and Samut Prakarn respectively.

Indirect impact – water supply

• Dysfunctional when the flood water rises two meters above the surrounding ground surface Net revenue loss = No. affected

household/establishment x Water supply/household x Water sales rate x Flood duration

• Water supply = 0.48 m3/day/household (residential unit) = 3.71 m3/day/establishment (non-residential unit)

• Water sales rate = 10.00 baht/m3 (Residential unit) = 13.75 baht/m3 (Non-residential unit)

• Source - 5-year record of the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA)

Indirect impact - sanitation

• Wastewater treatment system and solid waste management system – operation suspended when the flood water rises two meters above the surrounding ground surface Loss on operation = Affected population (no.) x waste generation

rate x Treatment/disposal cost x Flood duration

• Generation rate Wastewater = 0.37 m3/capita/day Solid waste = 1 kg/capita/day

• Wastewater treatment cost = 12.17 baht/m3

• Solid waste disposal cost = 454.75 baht/ton• Source - Department of Drainage and Sewerage (DDS),

BMA record in 2007

Indirect impact – public health

• Additional medical attention needed for.. 12.5 % population (50-100 cm flood depth) 25 % population (101-200 cm flood depth) 37.5 % population (>200 cm flood depth)

• Average health care cost (Health and Welfare Survey

by National Statistical Office, 2005)

= 7,582 baht/person/admission (Bangkok)

= 3,786 baht/person/admission (Samut Prakarn)

Indirect impact – energy sector

• No direct impact to the power generation plants relocated outside BMR in the future

• No direct impact to the power substations flood depth remains below 1 m depth which is

considered by the Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA)

• Indirect impact loss of revenue due to electricity shut down,

when flood depth > 1m (Source – MEA)

Impact cost: summaryImpact type Sector Scenario

C2008-T30 C2050-LS-T30 C2050-LS-SLR-A1FI-T30

C2050-LS-SLR-SS-A1FI-T30

Direct Building and housing

million Baht 27,282 75,500 105,576 113,679

Increase from 2008 1.0 2.8 3.9 4.2

Indirect (income loss)

Population million Baht 92 102 137 140

Increase from 2008 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.5

Commerce million Baht) 4,077 14,940 20,883 21,671

Increase from 2008 1.0 3.7 5.1 5.3

Industry million Baht 2,640 7,066 9,397 9,726

Increase from 2008 1.0 2.7 3.6 3.7

Energy million Baht 254 598 1,104 1,145

Increase from 2008 1.0 2.4 4.3 4.5

WSS million Baht 16 36 39 40

Increase from 2008 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.5

Indirect (health care)

million Baht 934 1,107 1,893 2,012

Increase from 2008 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.2

Total

million Baht 35,302 99,364 139,050 148,434

Increase from 2008 1.00 2.81 3.94 4.20

Impact costs

ResidenceCommerce

IndustryPublic Health

EnergyWater Supply &

SanitationSystem

55,432

45,945

12,302

140

21,671

9,726

2,012

1,145

40

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Damage Cost (millions of baht)

Scenario C2050-LS-SR-SS-A1FI-T30

Indirect Impact

Direct Impact

Damage to Building 113,679 MBaht Income Loss of Daily Wage Earner 140 Income Loss of Commerce 21,671 Income Loss of Industry 9,726 Health Care Cost 2,012 Income Loss of Energy 1,145 Income Loss of Water Supply and Sanitation System 40

Total Damage Cost 148,412 MBaht

Impact cost: summary

• Largest affected sector - direct damage of building (residential, commercial and industrial) - about 77 per cent of the total damage cost

• Income loss of commercial and industrial sectors would account for approximately 15 and 7 per cent of the total damage cost respectively

• Under the current condition, impact costs would be 35,302 million baht which might rise to 148,434 million baht in the future worst case scenario over four fold increase in the impact cost

Adaptation study

Structural measures - ongoing

• Polder system Dikes, drainage canal,

regulator and pump facilities

• Water retention area (Monkey Cheek)

• On-going flood protection efforts not have enough to cope

with A1FI climate change scenario at the return period higher than 10 years.

Constructing Retaining Wall onthe Bank of Chao Phraya River

Phrakanong Pumping Station

Rama IX Retention Pond, Pathum Thani can retard the flow and retain about 16 million cubic meters of flood water

Large Storage Dam

• The Kaeng Sua Ten Dam(1,125 MCM, CA 3,583 km2)on the Yom River Controversial social and

environmental impact

• Other large storage dam lack suitable site due to rapid

economic development strong protest from the

environmentalist

Bhumibol Dam on the Ping River

Sirikit Dam on the Nan River

Structural measures – earlier proposal

Barrage at the River Mouth

The Thames Barrier Project (England)

The Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier Project(Netherlands)

• Proposed by the RID• Costly - 131,020 million baht in 1998• Social and environmental problems• Can interfere navigation

• Storm surge Barrier in the Upper Gulf of Thailand

• controversial among local experts


Diversion Channel• RID proposal - from

Ayutthaya to the Gulf of Thailand (The Chao Phraya River II project) high investment cost (42,329

million baht in 1998 for capacity of 1,100 m3/sec)

impact on social and environment especially land acquisition problem

• RID (2006) alternate proposal – improve several existing

irrigation canals to divert water Improve pumping capacity at

stations on the right bank of the Bang Pakong River and on the coast

Raphi Phat canal capacity will be improved from 120 to be 400 m3/sec to divert flood water from the Pasak River

Chornrahan Phichit Pumping Station(120 m3/sec)


Sea Wave Protection

Bamboo Type

3 Row Concrete Pole Type

Rock-pile Embankment Type

Coastal Erosion and Wave ProtectionT-groins Type • More than 760 m of the Bang Khun Thian

shoreline have been eroded• Local solution

bamboo barrier to weaken the strength of the waves hitting the coast and increase silt deposition

• BMA plan 10 T-groins along the 4.7 km shoreline mangrove trees budget - estimated at 388.85 million baht

• Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (DMCR)• studying on the Master Plan and

Practice to Solve the Problem of Coastal Erosion on Shoreline along the Upper Gulf of Thailand.

Structural measures – other practice

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

!(

Bangkok

Nonthaburi

Pathum Thani

Samut Sakhon

Samut Prakan

Nakhon Pathom

620000

620000

640000

640000

660000

660000

680000

680000

700000

7000001480

000

1480

000

1500

000

1500

000

1520

000

1520

000

1540

000

1540

000

1560

000

1560

000

1580

000

1580

000

Legend

!( Province

Province Boundary

Dike

River/Canal Network

Elevation (m.MSL)

-7 - -5

-5 - -3

-3 - -1

-1 - 0

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 8

8 - 10

10 - 15

15 - 20

20 - 25

> 25

Max.Water Depth (cm)

0 - 10

10 - 50

50 - 100

100 - 200

200 - 300

300 - 400

> 400

Ê0 4 8 12 162

Kilometers

Dike improvement (up to 1.5 m):235 km on the east160 km on the west

Dike improvement (up to 1.5 m):235 km on the east160 km on the west

Increasing pumping capacity and canal improvement:Phasi Charoeng from 18 to be 550 m3/sec canal 27 kmSanam Chai from 36 to be 350 m3/sec canal 32.5 kmKhun Rat Phinit Chai from 30 to be 250 m3/sec canal 14.5 km

Increasing pumping capacity and canal improvement:Phasi Charoeng from 18 to be 550 m3/sec canal 27 kmSanam Chai from 36 to be 350 m3/sec canal 32.5 kmKhun Rat Phinit Chai from 30 to be 250 m3/sec canal 14.5 km

Coastal erosion protection:36 km on the west43 km on the east

Coastal erosion protection:36 km on the west43 km on the east

Proposed Structural Measuresfor 100-year Return Period

Max. future inundation (30-yr flood)

Inundated area – reduced - 744 to 362 km2 ordecreased 382 km2 or51 %.

Without Proposed Adaptation measures

With Proposed Adaptation measures

Feasibility study and detail design (3 years) -148 mil. BahtConstruction cost (5 years) - 49,380 mil. BahtO & M (30 years) - 874 mil. Baht/year

Economic Evaluation- Discounted rate - 10%- Net Present Value (NPV) - 16,256 mil. Baht- Benefit-cost Ratio (B/C) - 1.6- Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) - 16.26%

Evaluation of the proposal

Average annual benefit = average annual flood damage reductionConversion, Cost -> Economic cost (shadow price recommended by the WB – adopted)The B/C and EIRR reveal an attractive investment even without considering the benefits accruing from reduction of intangible damages (economic and social)

Non-structural measures

• Reservoir operation during flood times – rules of cooperation among Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), the Royal

Irrigation Department (RID), the Department of Water Resources (DWR), the Meteorological Department (TMD) and BMA

• Pursue Groundwater Extraction Control regulations to reduce land subsidence

• Flood Forecasting and Warning System Well developed (by BMA, EGAT, MD, DWR, RID) Improve accuracy of forecast and disseminate more frequently Develop consistent Guidelines for Flood Warning


• Flood Insurance Framework for flood insurance Institutional arrangements

• Disaster Management Public Awareness and Education Participation in International Disaster

Management Networks Effective Damage Assessment Application of Community-Centered Approach Highlight on Preventive Approach

• Mainstreaming Climate Change City and Land Use Control and Guidelines


• Flood Fighting Activity Assurance of funds for operation of suitable flood

fighting system with enough equipment, materials, and manpower through the decision of protection level;

Periodical training of inhabitants expected to join the flood fighting works;

Promulgation of a law on flood fighting to clarify the administration structure and job responsibilities of all concerned agencies, resulting in a well organized and more effective flood fighting.

Institutional mechanism: highlight

• Thailand Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Council Under the Office of Prime Minister chaired by a Deputy

Prime Minister Representation - main departments and ministries

• To ensure strong institutional support

Responsibilities• Establish sub-committees and/or working groups to carry on the

proposed adaptation measures• Conduct scientific study and maintain knowledgebase• Set up climate strategy of Thailand• Raise public awareness on climate change• Coordinate CC activities

Adaptation: implementation schedule

Project Short-term Med-term Long-term

Name Lead agency Other participating

agencies

Area 2009-2012 2013-2017 2018-2050

Structural Measures

Coastal Erosion Protection DMCR DDS, HDD BMA, SP, SS, Chachoens

FS + DD CS O&M

Flood Protection System Improvement RID DDS, EGAT, DWR

CP Basin FS + DD CS O&M

Bangkok Drainage System Improvement DDS RID BMA FS + DD CS O&M

Non-structural Measures

Establishment of the TCCIAC BMA All Thailand Policy

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Strategy BMA All Thailand FS IP

Groundwater Extraction Control and Land Subsidence Suppression DGR DDS, RSTD BMR FS IP

Flood Disaster Response and Management DDPM RID, DDS, TMD, NDWC

CP Basin FS IP

Flood Insurance OIC DAE, DOF, RID, DDS

CP Basin FS IP

City and Land Use Control and Guideline DCP DDS, DE, DPW, TTD

BMA FS IP

FS = Feasibility Study DD = Detailed Design CS = Construction O&M = Operation and Maintenance IP = ImplementTCCIAC = Thailand Climate Change Impact and Adaptation CouncilBangkok Metropoitan Administration (BMA); Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (DMCR), MoNRE; Hydrogaraphic Department (HDD), Thai Navy; Department of Drainage and Sewerage (DDS), BMA; The Royal Irrigation Department (RID), MOAC; The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT); Department of Water Resources (DWR), MoNRE; Royal Thai Survey Department (RTSD); The Meteorological Department (TMD); National Disaster Warning Center (NDWC); Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM); Office of Insurance Commission (OIC); Department of Fisheries (DOF); Department of Environment (DE); Department of Public Works (DPW); Traffic and Transportation Department (TTD)

Summary….

• Generated science-based knowledge of socioeconomic situation and climatic factors

• Developed mathematical model for simulating climate change impact the on hydrology

• Assessed easily interpretable climate change impact for 2050 under different scenarios

• Recommended suitable adaptation options

Thank you

[email protected]

An upcoming event…

Please contact:

Dr. S M. Wahid

Tel: +66 89 44 00 906

Tel: +662 524 5561

Fax: +662 524 6425

Email: [email protected]

Documents

Adaptation in Action: Options and strategies in Bangkok