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ADAPT, MOVE or DIE

ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?

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Page 1: ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?

ADAPT, MOVE or DIE

Page 2: ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?
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Adapt?

Page 4: ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?

Adapt?

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Adapt?

Page 6: ADAPT, MOVE or DIE. Adapt? MOVE? Move?

Adapt?

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MOVE?

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Move?

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beech

Move?

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Moving Cloud Forests

• Monteverde, Costa Rica

• Golden toad extinction• Reptile/amphibian

abundance declines (frogs, toads, anoline lizards)

• Upslope Movement of birds

• Associated with trends in dry days (mist surrogate)

Move?

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or Die?

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Understanding the Future

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Diastella proteoides

or Die?

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Diastella proteoides

or Die?

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Diastella proteoides

or Die?

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ffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

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or Die?

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or Die?

Source: Owen (2006)

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or Die?

Malcolm et al (2006) Conservation Biology

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or Die?

Extinction Risk, Cape Floristic Region(% of endemic species)

Thomas et al Malcolm et al

30.0 52.0 no dispersal 15.4 68.0

21.0 38.0 perfect dispersal 2.4 17.4

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Region taxa Current

Protected Area

Additional Protected Area

required (no climate change)

Additional Protected Area required with

climate change

Cost of Waiting

km2 Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current)

Cape Floristic Region

Plants (Proteacea) 282

4,681 2,190 (47%) 2,485 (53%) 408 (9%)

Tropical Mexico

Birds and Mammals 179

104,000 44,000 (42%) 44,500 (43%) 12,300 (12%)

Western Europe

Plants (multiple taxa) 1200

20,850 3,850 (19%) 8,950 (43%) 2,000 (9%)

lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

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or Die?

Hannah et al (2005) Bioscience

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Improved conservation strategies

Limiting greenhouse gas concentrations

Extinctions are not inevitable