HOUSING FORECLOSURE IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY:

Need for Prevention and Assistance at the Local Level

Ada LingJun Peng 3040661182012 FallGIS FINAL PROJECT

Outline

Research Background and Question Data Collection and Sources Maps and Skills utilized Major Findings

Research Background

U.S. housing foreclosure crisis from 2007 to 2009: huge direct and indirect financial and social impacts

Main causes: Deregulation of mortgage loans, high percentage of high risk lending Reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) and etc.

Micro level: homeowners and renters, neighborhoods and communities

Need and capacity at the local level in terms of preventing foreclosures, providing assistance and mitigating the impacts of relevant households

Urban spatial structure: the complex relationship among the locations of population, economic and social characteristics and activities (such as housing, racial diversity and employment experience), physical networks, and etc.

Research Question

Do the existing housing counseling agencies in Los Angeles County have a good service coverage? What is the next step?

Identify areas that need most help in terms of prevention and assistance

Propose optimal locations for additional counseling agencies

Examine social, economic and demographic data of the new service area to provide insights on designing the services provided and staffing of the new agencies

Overview: housing crisis

Study area: LA County

Foreclosure data

estimated_number_foreclosures estimated count of foreclosure starts over 18 months from Jan 2007 through June 2008.

estimated_foreclosure_rate - number of foreclosure starts divided by number of mortgages times 100.

Mortgage Bankers Association National Delinquency Survey, estimated by the HUD model

*Original Data

Current status: need & supply

Existing Housing Counseling Agencies Serving LA County

Operation Hope,INC (English, Spanish) Shalom Center for T.R.E.E. of Life

(English Only) NID-HCA (English Only) West Angeles Community

Development Corp. ( English.) East Los Angeles Community

Corporation (ELACC) (Spanish)   Korean Churches for Community

Development (Korean)   Los Angeles Neighborhood Housing

Services (English, Spanish) ClearPoint Credit Counseling Solutions

(English, Spanish)   New Economics For Women (English,

Spanish)

Source:http://housing.lacounty.gov/ForeclosureResources.html

*original data

Demographic characteristics

Racial Majority IndexMajority defined as the group having the largest percentage of total population

White aloneAsian-Pacific Islander alone Black alone Hispanic Having two or more races Some other race alone

Social economic characteristics in relation to # of foreclosures

Index of “the Needy” Percent of families below

poverty line-- 50% Percent of population

having less than high school education-- 50%

Need Index Proposed new locations

Problem: Find the most suitable location for

additional housing counseling centers

Parameters : (equal weight) Supply: Far from

existing centers Needs: # of

foreclosures Index of the Needy

(social, economic factors)

Identify the area with the greatest need for additional housing counseling agencies

Located the detailed locations based on geographic information in the top 2 hot spot areas

Need Index Proposed new locations

Model & Hot Spot Analysis

Build model Convert to Raster Index and Reclassify Weight and Index Hot spot analysis

Network analysis—Service Area Analysis

Use Geocoding to place the proposed 2 new locations

Use Service Area Analysis to determine the new service area within 15 and 30 minutes drive

Look at the detailed demographics….

• Relatively young with a mean age around 30

• More female

• Majority White and Hispanic

• ~ 10 to 30% foreign born

Main Findings

Huge spatial disparity in terms of the locations of housing counseling agencies in LA County

Severe need for additional agencies in Lancaster and Palmdale

Social, economic and demographic data provides great insights on the design for new agencies. Implications: provide both Spanish and English,

online services, legal assistance and etc.

The End