8/14/2013

1

Ad Hoc Committee on Student

Assignment

August 14, 2013

1

Presentation Outline

• Revising areas of the city with the lowest

average test scores (CTIP1)

• Demographic Trends and Enrollment Forecasts

• Middle School Feeders for Bryant and Webster

• Enrollment Update

• Future Meetings

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8/14/2013

2

REVISING CTIP1

Areas of the City With the Lowest Average Test Scores

3

The Census Tract Integration Preference (CTIP)

operates as a preference/tie-breaking factor in the

choice student assignment system.

– Designed to meet the Board’s goals to reverse the trend of racial isolation and the concentration of underserved students in the same school, and provide equitable access to the range of opportunities offered to students

– Based on average test scores

– Children living in areas of the city with the lowest average test scores get the CTIP1 tiebreaker

What is CTIP1?

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3

Racial/ethnic breakdown of K/6/9 students in

2012-13 who received the CTIP1 tie-breaker

Analysis of impact included in two annual reports

– 2012-13 SY – pages 23-36

– 2011-12 SY – pages 35-44

What is CTIP1?

5

African

American

24%

Chinese

9%

Latino

44%

Other

Asian

6%

Other

12%

White

5%

Always recognized that CTIP classifications would have to be reviewed as additional test score data became available.

We have concluded that the CTIP1 areas in use 2010-13 should be modified a bit (but not much):

– To take advantage of the more granular Census 2010 tract geography, and

– To account for the fact that students in one CTIP1 area have improved test scores substantially more than in other areas.

Updating CTIP1 Areas

6

8/14/2013

4

The number of Census tracts in San Francisco increased from 176 in 2000 to 197 in 2010.

Most of the “new” tracts are subdivisions of 2000 tracts that had large populations

– The new tracts tend to be more homogeneous, permitting us to group students with similar characteristics (such as average test scores).

– There were only minor changes in outer tract boundaries.

For CTIP analyses, we combined some 2010 tracts to increase student numbers and to reduce random variation in average test scores from year to year.

Census 2010 Tract Geography

7

Tract 230.03

Citywide, test scores have improved. One CTIP1

area’s test scores improved a lot, moving the

tract out of the CTIP1 category

We should continue to monitor these trends.

Average CST-ELA Score

CTIP area 2006-10 2011-12 Improvement

CTIP1 319 332 14

CTIP2 340 351 11

CTIP3 350 361 10

CTIP4 369 381 12

CTIP5 384 395 12

All areas 353 365 12

Tract 230.03 333 352 18

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8/14/2013

5

Changes in numbers of residents of all CTIP

areas

Changes in number of K-12 residents of each 2013 CTIP area, fall 2006 - fall 2012

Before CTIP used CTIP used Average students/year

CTIP Area 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 pre-CTIP under CTIP Change

CTIP1 10,715 10,334 10,266 10,350 10,431 10,262 10,247 10,419 10,255 -165

CTIP2 9,819 9,833 9,937 9,957 10,157 9,875 9,861 9,941 9,868 -73

CTIP3 10,187 10,216 10,458 10,630 10,755 10,746 10,772 10,449 10,759 310

CTIP4 10,542 10,299 10,170 10,098 9,931 9,919 9,870 10,208 9,895 -314

CTIP5 10,340 10,214 10,293 10,541 10,201 10,419 10,595 10,318 10,507 189

Total 51,603 50,896 51,124 51,576 51,475 51,221 51,345 51,335 51,283 -52

• Numbers of residents of CTIP 4, 1, and 2 shrunk

• Numbers of residents of CTIP 3 and 5 have grown

9

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

African

American

Chinese Other

Asian

Hispanic Samoan White Other

Av

era

ge

nu

mb

er

of

K-1

2 r

esi

de

nts

pe

r y

ea

r, C

TIP

1 a

rea

s

before CTIP1 (fall 2006-fall 2010)

CTIP1 used (fall 2011 & fall 2012)

Minor changes in

the resident

student

racial/ethnic mix

Changes in ethnic mix of residents of all CTIP1 areas

10

8/14/2013

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11

12

8/14/2013

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Detail

13

Detail (northern areas that are changing)

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8/14/2013

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Detail (southern area that is changing)

15

Tract 230.03

Questions explored about the Southern Area

that is moving from CTIP1 to CTIP2

Have enrollment patterns changed?

Has the number of students living in this area increased or decreased?

Are there changes in the racial/ethnic mix of students living in this area?

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8/14/2013

9

Southern Area: Enrollment Patterns

Number enrolled in schools:

School Year

Number of

K+6+9 Students

Bayview

Zone

Mission

Zone Intensive Strategic Benchmark Challenge Other

2009-10 127 27 5 19 20 26 17 13

2010-11 129 21 5 19 26 25 21 12

2011-12 120 9 1 17 14 43 26 10

2012-13 135 7 4 24 21 42 24 13

Percentages enrolled in schools:

2009-10 21% 4% 15% 16% 20% 13% 10%

2010-11 16% 4% 15% 20% 19% 16% 9%

2011-12 8% 1% 14% 12% 36% 22% 8%

2012-13 5% 3% 18% 16% 31% 18% 10%

Tract 230.03

The share of this area’s K/6/9 residents enrolled in Bayview and Mission Zone schools dropped dramatically beginning in Fall 2011, while the shares in some other categories (especially Benchmark) have grown. 17

Southern Area: Number of Students

Tract 230.03

GRADE 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

K 47 44 42 37 51 35 42

1 49 57 45 36 33 61 32

2 47 49 56 47 38 31 60

3 32 46 47 51 41 43 27

4 37 35 45 47 52 41 38

5 36 39 33 44 43 51 42

6 48 41 36 32 38 42 53

7 56 56 39 33 31 43 47

8 50 52 55 41 38 32 40

9 78 74 68 58 40 43 40

10 50 53 51 56 47 44 46

11 39 39 44 42 41 46 46

12 36 39 33 39 38 43 46

Total 605 624 594 563 531 555 559

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10

Southern Area: Race/Ethnic Mix of Students

Tract 230.03

Before CTIP1 CTIP1 Comparison

Group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

fall 2009 +

fall 2010

fall 2011 +

fall 2012

African American 192 173 162 135 116 107 87 23% 17%

Chinese 194 195 192 183 184 193 208 34% 36%

Other Asian 40 37 43 44 48 50 52 8% 9%

Hispanic 123 152 148 151 138 163 174 26% 30%

Samoan 9 9 8 8 5 3 2 1% 0%

White 9 10 8 10 12 10 9 2% 2%

Other 38 48 33 32 28 29 27 5% 5%

Total 605 624 594 563 531 555 559 100% 100%

The share of this area’s residents that is African American has been falling over time, while the Hispanic share has been growing.

19

• Update CTIP areas for 2014-15 enrollment cycle

– Update online maps and enrollment systems

– Include information in the Enrollment Guide for the 2014-15 school year

• Continue to monitor closely and think intentionally about ways to achieve the Board’s policy goals

Next Steps

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8/14/2013

11

ENROLLMENT FORECASTS

Demographic Trends and

21

San Francisco Unified School District

Demographic Trends and

Enrollment Forecasts

Shelley Lapkoff, Ph.D.

Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic

Research, Inc.

www.demographers.com

August 14, 2013

22

90% interval

67% interval

Forecast avg

Actual

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Num

ber of Stu

dents

Year

Stochastic Forecast of Total Enrollment 2013-2021Assuming constant births at 2011 level

8/14/2013

12

Bottom Line

• Enrollment increases expected due to substantial housing growth, including 16,000 additional affordable housing units.

– HOPE SF mixed income communities

– Treasure Island

– Central Corridor; Market and Octavia; Park Merced, etc.

• Large kindergarten cohorts since 2009 will eventually cause enrollments to increase in the upper grades

– Middle school enrollments should start increasing very soon

– High school enrollments should decline for a few more years before turning around

• High schools have had more students continue (we are investigating the reasons)

23

Today’s Presentation

� Housing growth and its implications for enrollment growth

� Kindergarten enrollment

� Forecasts

� High school grade progressions

� Comparison with earlier forecasts

� Questions/Comments/Additional slides

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13

Housing Growth

• Housing growth slowed in recent years, due to the recession

• Planners anticipate large numbers of new units in the next few years as developers “catch up”

• In the long run, a large amount of housing is anticipated

– More than 70,000 units have been suggested, many large projects already approved

– When built, the City’s housing inventory will grow by about 25 percent

25

26

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

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24

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25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

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20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Pro

ject

ed

Year

Projected Enrollments from Major New Housing

Develoments

8/14/2013

14

How we forecast the number of

students from new housing

• Enrollments from new housing equal the number of housing units multiplied by the “student yield,” or the average number of expected students per housing unit.

• Student yields vary by the characteristics of the housing, especially whether the housing is below-market-rate (BMR), also called “affordable.”

27

Name Completion Unit Type

Total

Units

Affordable

Units 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2012

Yield

2012 Yield in Affordable

Units, if all students live

in the affordable units

Rich Sorro Commons 2002 rental 100 100 58 52 57 63 54 54 50 0.50 0.50

Beacon 2004 condos 595 27 3 7 6 8 6 10 9 0.02 0.33

Mission Bay Apts - Crescent Cove 2007 rental 236 236 0 25 39 45 44 46 51 0.22 0.22

SFRA Affordable Home Ownership 2009 condos 131 131 0 0 0 0 9 24 28 0.21 0.21

Avalon II 2006 rental 313 19 0 3 3 2 3 4 3 0.01 0.16

Avalon I 2003 rental 250 21 3 0 1 1 2 4 1 0.00 0.05

Campus Housing 2005 rental 431 431 0 3 4 9 12 13 8 0.02 0.02

Signature II-235 Berry Street 2006 condos 99 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0.02 no affordable units

Park Terrace 2007 condos 110 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0.01 no affordable units

Strata - Urban Housing Group Apts 2009 rental 192 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 0.01 no affordable units

Radiance 2008 condos 99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.02 no affordable units

Glassworks 2003 condos 39 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

Channel Park (Signature I) - 255 Berry St 2004 condos 100 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

355 Berry Street-Edgewater Apts 2007 rental 193 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

Arterra 2008 condos 269 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

Madrone at Mission Bay by BOSA 2012 condos 329 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

Avalon III 2009 260 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0.00 no affordable units

Mission Creek Senior 2006 n.a. 140 n.a. n.a. no affordable units

Total 3,886 965 65 91 112 133 137 158 156 0.04 0.16

Total, excluding Campus Housing 3,455 534 65 88 108 124 125 145 148 0.28

K-12 Enrollments

Mission Bay Projects

Example of Student Yields, Mission Bay Area

28

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15

Housing Forecast

29

All Units Affordable Units # Students Expected

HOPE SF Projects

Bayview/Hunters Pt/Candlestick 11,690 4,320 2,532

Sunnydale 915 307 138

Potrero 910 307 155

Westside Courts n.a. n.a. n.a.

Treasure Island and Yerba Buena Is 7,387 1,732 1,078

Central Corridor 11,715 2,343 586

Market and Octavia 5,960 1,192 566

Park Merced 5,679 1,420 525

Mission Bay 3,411 46 515

Executive Park 1,600 192 448

Transbay 3,400 927 472

Visitacion Valley/Schlage Lock 1,250 313 391

Eastern Neighborhoods 9,000 1,350 304

Transit Center District 1,200 327 167

Western SOMA 2,900 580 145

Balboa Park Station 1,780 445 111

5M Project 750 188 47

Rincon Hill 2,200 266 67

Pier 70 Area 1,000 200 50

Mission Rock 800 200 50

Total 73,546 16,655 8,346

Housing Unit Forecast

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16

Kindergarten Enrollment

• Between 2000 and 2007, kindergarten

enrollment was particularly low. These cohorts

are now in 5th – 12th grades. Since 2009,

kindergarten enrollments have grown. As these

larger cohorts progress through the grades, they

will increase enrollments -- first in the

elementary schools, then in the middle schools,

and finally in the high schools.

• We expect the Fall 2013 kindergarten class to be

large, followed by smaller classes in Fall 2014

through Fall 2016.

31

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Year

Kindergarten Enrollment, 1981 - 2012

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8/14/2013

17

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Year

Kindergarten Enrollment, 1981 - 2012

K

87

65

4

3 2 1

12 11109

Initial cohort size of students in current grade

33

Stochastic Forecasts

• Assumed housing growth as indicated earlier

• Ran 1,000 simulations picking different historical

changes in grade progressions and kindergarten-

to-birth ratios

• Applied stochastic processes when forecasting

enrollment (a new application)

• The Median of the stochastic forecasts is very

similar to results using the more traditional

forecasting method

34

8/14/2013

18

35

90% interval

67% interval

Forecast avg

Actual

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021

Num

ber of Stu

dents

Year

Stochastic Forecast of Total Enrollment 2013-2021Assuming constant births at 2011 level

36

90% interval

67% interval

Forecast avg

Actual

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

Num

ber of Stu

dents

Year

Stochastic Forecast of Elementary School Enrollment 2013-2017

8/14/2013

19

37

90% interval

67% interval

Forecast avg

Actual

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Num

ber of S

tudents

Year

Stochastic Forecast of Middle-School Enrollment 2013-2021

Forecast of middle school enrollments

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

5% 11,516 11,524 11,642 11,717 11,665 11,526 11,315 11,116 10,765 10,370

16.5% 11,516 11,769 11,936 12,195 12,303 12,293 12,203 12,191 11,999 11,737

50% (median) 11,516 11,833 12,260 12,825 13,191 13,438 13,604 13,846 13,895 13,857

83.5% 11,516 12,037 12,605 13,379 14,022 14,566 15,072 15,734 16,173 16,541

95% 11,516 12,165 12,807 13,709 14,507 15,283 16,040 17,045 17,814 18,565

38

90% interval

67% interval

Forecast avg

Actual

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

Num

ber

of Stu

dents

Year

Stochastic Forecast of High-School Enrollment 2013-2025

8/14/2013

20

High School Grade Progressions May

Indicate Higher Continuation Rates

• As part of the forecasting process, we

measure how many students continue to the

next grade. A new pattern has developed

recently in the high schools, which could

indicate higher graduation rates.

39

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1981>82

1982>83

1983>84

1984>85

1985>86

1986>87

1987>88

1988>89

1989>90

1990>91

1991>92

1992>93

1993>94

1994>95

1995>96

1996>97

1997>98

1998>99

1999>00

2000>01

2001>02

2002>03

2003>04

2004>05

2005>06

2006>07

2007>08

2008>09

2009>10

2010>11

2011>12

High School Grade Progression DifferencesGrades 8-11 into 9-12

Year

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Gain

ed o

r Lost

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21

Repeaters 2008>09 2009>10 2010>11 2011>2012

9>9 7% 6% 4% 4%

10>10 7% 6% 4% 5%

11>11 3% 4% 3% 4%

12>12 5% 4% 4% 5%

Denominator is same grade, prior year

continuing from

previous grade 2008>09 2009>10 2010>11 2011>2012

8>9 88% 89% 88% 89%

9>10 77% 83% 85% 87%

10>11 75% 80% 81% 84%

11>12 80% 82% 84% 86%

Left 2008>09 2009>10 2010>11 2011>2012

8>9 12% 11% 12% 11%

9>10 16% 11% 10% 10%

10>11 18% 14% 15% 11%

11>12 17% 14% 13% 10%

New (excludes

repeaters) 2008>09 2009>10 2010>11 2011>12

8>9 23% 26% 26% 21%

9>10 7% 11% 10% 10%

10>11 12% 9% 7% 7%

11>12 11% 8% 7% 8%

Denominator is prior grade, prior year41

Fewer

students

repeating

grades

Fewer

students

leaving the

District

Comparison with earlier forecast:

Actual Fall 2012 enrollments were very

similar to 2009 forecasts

42

Actuals 2009 Forecast

Difference:

Forecast - Actuals Percent Difference

K to 5 27,318 27,416 98 0.4%

6 to 8 11,516 11,520 4 0.0%

Comparison of 2009 Forecast with Actuals

8/14/2013

22

Comparison with 2009 forecast:

High school difficult to evaluate because of

variations in reported Five Keys enrollments

43

Year Enrollment

2004 226

2005 223

2006 1,042

2007 239

2008 549

2009 7

2010 642

2011 698

2012 1,058

Five KeysEvaluation of High School Enrollment Forecasts

2009 Forecast, including Five Keys 18,230

2012 Actual, excluding Five Keys 17,867

Difference: Forecast - Actual 363

2009 Forecast, excluding Five Keys 17,172

2012 Actual, excluding Five Keys 17,867

Difference: Forecast - Actual -695

2009 Forecast and New Forecast

• Both forecasts show future enrollment increases

• 2009 forecast shows higher enrollments in 2020

for elementary and middle school than new

forecast because:

– Housing construction is delayed

– More housing growth expected now, but smaller

percentage of affordable units

– Lower student yields assumed than earlier forecast

• New forecast: higher 2020 high school enrollments

– Higher high school grade progressions cause high school

forecast to be above our 2009 forecast levels

44

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23

Final Considerations

• Much of the City’s housing growth will occur after

2025. There will be enrollment growth beyond the

forecasted period.

• Virtually all of the enrollment gains from new

housing will be from affordable units.

• The forecasts are highly sensitive to the student

yield assumed for the new housing.

• Further research is recommended on the impact of

high school students staying in District schools

longer.

45

Additional Slides for Q & A

(Appendix)

46

8/14/2013

24

BRYANT AND WEBSTER

Middle School Feeders for

47

Outline

• Context for Change

• Superintendent’s Recommendations

• Next Steps

48

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25

Context for Change

• ISA transitioning from 6-12 to 9-12 school

– ISA is the middle school feeder for Bryant and

Webster elementary schools

– Need to identify new middle school feeder for 5th

graders transitioning to 6th grade in fall 2014 (i.e.,

by fall 2013)

49

Superintendent’s Recommendations

• Enrollment forecasts being reviewed for first time tonight

• Need to digest enrollment forecasts and incorporate into an exploration of all factors to be considered as outlined in Board Policy P5101– current enrollment patterns and expected future

enrollment changes

– balancing the size of enrollment at various schools

– the diversity of enrollment in various schools

– the availability of facilities

– the locations of programs and schools

– the coherence of elementary to middle school pathways

50

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26

Superintendent’s Recommendations

1. Immediate Term

– For the 2014-15 school year, give 5th graders

exiting Bryant and Webster a middle school tie-

breaker to attend the school listed as a first

choice on their application form (one year only)

51

Superintendent’s Recommendations

2. Short-Term by spring 2014 to go into effect starting with the 2015-16 SY

– Evaluate the current portfolio of middle schools

– Identify middle school feeder for Bryant and Webster

– Identify elementary feeders for Brown middle school

3. Long-Term

– Define the portfolio of schools needed in the long-term to meet projected growths in enrollment

52

8/14/2013

27

Immediate Next Steps

2014-15 Enrollment Information

• Share information with Bryant and Webster and all stakeholders (e.g., PAC, PPS, Mission Graduates)

• Incorporate information into the enrollment materials for the 2014-15 school year (e.g., Enrollment Guide, letters to exiting 5th graders…)

Demographic Report

• Share full report with community and create opportunities for staff to discuss findings and observations with the community

53

Additional Next Steps

• Convene a staff working group to evaluate the current portfolio of middle schools and develop recommendations for the 2015-16 school year– Middle school feeder for Bryant and Webster

– Elementary feeders for Brown Middle School

• Convene a staff working group to study the implications of the enrollment forecasts and develop a long-term plan to meet the needs of the expected enrollment increases

• Develop a community engagement infrastructure to gather input and keep key stakeholders informed as staff work evolves

54

8/14/2013

28

ENROLLMENT UPDATE

2014-15 School Year

55

Complete 2013-14 Cycle

• Students who do not attend within the first 3

days of school will be withdrawn and openings

will be filled from the waiting pool.

• Waiting pool process will end on Friday, Sept.

6th

– Waiting pools will be dissolved, and a “No Transfer

Period” will be implemented.

– Requests for Spring Transfers will be accepted

beginning on September 9

56

8/14/2013

29

2014-15 Key Dates

Saturday, November 2 Public School Enrollment Fair

Tuesday, January 21 Application Deadline for March

Placement Period (Round 1)

Friday, March 14 March Placement notification letters

mailed

Friday, April 11 Application Deadline for May Placement

Period (Round 2)

Registration deadline at schools,

Appeals due

Friday, May 9 Notification for May Placement Period

Friday, May 23 Waiting pool request deadline (Round 3)

Wednesday, June 11 Available School Assignment Period-

ASAP

(formerly known as Open Enrollment)57

FUTURE MEETINGS

Ad Hoc Committee on Student Assignment

58

8/14/2013

30

September 11, 2013

• Follow-up on any open items from tonight’s

discussion

• Share and discuss findings from Stanford’s

research questions investigating how district

policies shape the distribution of students

among K12 schools in SFUSD

• Update on the Pre-K Enrollment Process

59

Appendix

Demographic Trends and

Enrollment Forecasts

Additional Slides for Q & A

60

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31

Housing Growth

61

Recession Effect Started in 2010

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Nu

mb

er

of

Un

its

Bu

ilt

Year

Number of Housing Units Built, 1991 - 2012

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32

Existing Student Yields,

Rincon South

Total Units

Affordable

Units

Type of

Housing

Affordability

status 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg Yield

Affordable Yield,

assuming all students

live in affordable units

Brannan Square 240 51 condos inclusionary 20 22 18 17 19 17 14 18 0.08 0.36

Steamboat Point 108 108 apts stand-alone 19 18 19 21 19 14 11 17 0.16 0.16

South Beach Marina 414 86 apts inclusionary 6 4 7 6 6 8 6 6 0.01 0.07

Bayside Village 868 173 apts inclusionary 11 11 14 18 12 14 20 14 0.02 0.08

Rincon Center 320 64 apts inclusionary 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 0.00 0.01

301 Bryant 38 7 condos inclusionary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00

Cape Horn Warehouse 16 0 condos all market 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 na

Oriental Warehouse 66 0 condos all market 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00 na

Brannan Towers 338 0 condos all market 0 1 0 2 2 2 3 1 0.00 na

One Embarcadero South 233 0 condos all market 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 1 0.01 na

Total 2641 489 57 57 59 67 61 58 57 59 0.02 0.12

Rincon South New HousingK-12 Enrollments

63

Existing Student Yields, SFHA Units

BLDG_NAME Units 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Avg Yield

Alice Griffith 254 265 276 278 247 226 204 214 0.96

Westbrook 225 193 199 191 200 228 226 211 0.92

Hunters View 148 146 149 123 136 119 114 94 0.85

Potrero Annex 137 114 105 103 98 117 133 123 0.83

Bernal Dwellings Apts (Hope VI) 160 138 124 120 125 125 122 113 0.77

Robert B. Pitts Apts. 203 120 123 132 133 160 151 154 0.68

North Beach Place (Hope VI) 341 236 232 237 234 226 201 186 0.65

Sunnydale/Velasco 785 546 455 480 498 536 535 515 0.65

Plaza East Apts (Hope VI) 193 148 130 125 120 124 104 125 0.65

Bayview Commons Apts 30 19 22 17 16 18 18 22 0.63

Alemany 164 109 90 109 107 100 98 94 0.62

Hayes Valley Apts (Hope VI) 195 130 119 108 99 109 102 108 0.57

200 Randolph St/409 Head St 26 17 16 14 14 16 13 12 0.56

Potrero Terrace 469 255 231 231 252 264 274 289 0.55

Hunters Point East/WEst 213 102 111 95 104 109 115 128 0.51

Valencia Gardens (Hope VI) 260 40 131 143 150 143 134 137 0.48

Holly Courts 118 51 48 53 55 62 54 47 0.45

Ping Yuen 234 72 64 68 63 63 67 75 0.29

Westside Courts 136 36 34 32 36 38 38 40 0.27

Ping Yuen North 194 27 25 31 35 39 39 37 0.17

430 Turk St (mainly studios) 89 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 0.04

Woodside Gardens (mainly studios) 110 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.00

Total 4,684 2,772 2,689 2,694 2,724 2,824 2,744 2,726 0.58

San Francisco Housing Authority Family Housing, Students and Student Yields

64

8/14/2013

33

65

SF Housing Authority

• About 2/3 of SFHA served residents live in housing via vouchers, only 1/3 live in public housing

• We do not have address information on voucher holders

66

8/14/2013

34

Monitoring Housing Growth

• Monitor the timing of individual housing developments – sometimes developers are overly optimistic

• Monitor whether the number of housing units changes

• As new housing is built, monitor the student yields to evaluate the validity of the forecast assumptions

• Monitor whether new housing projects are proposed

• Our work can provide the basis for updating information

67

Kindergarten Forecasts

68

8/14/2013

35

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Num

ber

of B

irth

s

Year of Birth

San Francisco County Births: 1973 - 2011

69

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Kindgergartners

Births 5 years before

Births and Subsequent Kindergarten Enrollment 1981-2012

Year of enrollment

Num

ber

of K

inderg

art

ners

Num

ber o

f Birth

s

70

8/14/2013

36

45%

47%

49%

51%

53%

55%

57%

59%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Year of Kindergarten Enrollment

Ratio of Kindergarten Enrollmentto Birth Five Years Earlier, 1990 - 2012

Kin

derg

art

ners

Over

Bir

ths 5

Years

Earlie

r

71

Kindergarten Enrollment =

# Births (5 years prior) * K/B ratioDoes not include students from future housing

72

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

Nu

mb

er

of

Kin

de

rga

rte

n S

tud

en

ts

Year of Enrollment

Kindergarten Enrollments, 1981-2012 and Forecasted

2013-2016

Actual

Current Year K/B

3-Yr Avg K/B

20-Yr Avg K/B

8/14/2013

37

Grade Progressions

73

Grade Progressions

• The forecast advances students to the next grade,

but sometimes the cohort numbers rise or fall as

the students move to the following grade.

• The change in cohort size as students progress to

the next grade is called the “grade progression.”

• We measure historical grade progressions (for

each set of grades) and use historical levels to

guide assumptions about future grade

progressions.

74

8/14/2013

38

Start with today’s students by grade, then

age the students one grade

K

1

2

3

4

etc.

1

2

3

4

5

etc.

some students

leave, others

enter

75

Following a Cohort Over Time

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000-K

2001-1

2002-2

2003-3

2004-4

2005-5

2006-6

2007-7

2008-8

2009-9

2010-1

0

2011-1

1

2012-1

2

Num

ber of Stu

dents

Year - Grade

Kindergarten Cohort of 2000 as It Progressed Through the Grades

76

8/14/2013

39

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

K>1

1>2

2>3

3>4

4>5

5>6

6>7

7>8

8>9

9>10

10>11

11>12

Change in N

um

ber

of S

tudents

Grade from > to

Grade Progressions between Fall 2011 and Fall 2012

77

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1981>82

1982>83

1983>84

1984>85

1985>86

1986>87

1987>88

1988>89

1989>90

1990>91

1991>92

1992>93

1993>94

1994>95

1995>96

1996>97

1997>98

1998>99

1999>00

2000>01

2001>02

2002>03

2003>04

2004>05

2005>06

2006>07

2007>08

2008>09

2009>10

2010>11

2011>12

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Gain

ed o

r Lost

Elementary Grade Progression DifferencesGrades K to 4 into 1 to 5

Year

78

8/14/2013

40

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1981>82

1982>83

1983>84

1984>85

1985>86

1986>87

1987>88

1988>89

1989>90

1990>91

1991>92

1992>93

1993>94

1994>95

1995>96

1996>97

1997>98

1998>99

1999>00

2000>01

2001>02

2002>03

2003>04

2004>05

2005>06

2006>07

2007>08

2008>09

2009>10

2010>11

2011>12

Middle School Grade Progression DifferencesGrades 5-7 into 6-8

Year

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Gain

ed o

r Lost

79

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1981>82

1982>83

1983>84

1984>85

1985>86

1986>87

1987>88

1988>89

1989>90

1990>91

1991>92

1992>93

1993>94

1994>95

1995>96

1996>97

1997>98

1998>99

1999>00

2000>01

2001>02

2002>03

2003>04

2004>05

2005>06

2006>07

2007>08

2008>09

2009>10

2010>11

2011>12

High School Grade Progression DifferencesGrades 8-11 into 9-12

Year

Num

ber

of S

tudents

Gain

ed o

r Lost

80

8/14/2013

41

Grade Progression Assumptions

• Elementary and middle school grade progressions have been relatively stable; forecast is not particularly sensitive to choice of any assumption based on historical experience.

• High school grade progressions have changed a lot. Using this year’s grade progression or even the average of the last three years makes a big difference in the forecast (compared with using a longer historical average).

• If high school continuation patterns are expected to continue, we should use the more recent grade progressions.

81

Private School Enrollment

• The number of students attending private

schools located in San Francisco has remained

fairly stable

• Poor reporting to the state in recent years

resulted in the incorrect conclusion that SF’s

private school enrollments declined. This is not

true.

82

8/14/2013

42

Private School Rates

• The U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community

Survey (ACS) provides estimates of private

school enrollment rates in San Francisco.

• Private school rates between 2007-2011:

– Grades 1-4: 27.5%, +-2.5% error margin

– Grades 5-8: 26.5%, +-2.5% error margin

– Grades 9-12: 20% +-2.0% error margin

• These rates are lower than in 2000 (U.S. Census)

for elementary and middle school; higher for

high school.

83

Alternative Enrollment Forecasts

• Three Different Scenarios

– Current year rates continue

– 3-year average rates continue

– 20-year average rates continue

• Future housing growth included

• Very similar results to Median of stochastic

forecasts

84

8/14/2013

43

85

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Year

Elementary Enrollment Forecasts,

Includes Housing Growth

Using 3-yr avg rates

Using current yr rates

Using 20-yr avg rates

Actual

86

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Year

Middle School Enrollment Forecasts,

Includes Housing Growth

Using 3-yr avg rates

Using current yr rates

Using 20-yr avg rates

Actual

8/14/2013

44

87

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Year

High School Enrollment Forecasts,

Includes Housing Growth

Using 3-yr avg rates

Using current yr rates

Using 20-yr avg rates

Actual