TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates RE: Key Finding from Recent Survey of Assembly District 18 Voters DATE: August 30, 2012 Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) recently conducted a survey of 400 voters inAssemblyDistrict18likelytovoteintheNovember2012Presidentialelection.iAlthoughthemajorityoftheelectorateremainsundecided,thesurveyresultsshowAbelGuillenwithafivepoint leadoverRob Bonta in an initialmatch­up before respondents are offered any biographical informationaboutthecandidatesormessaging.

GuillenEntersGeneralElectionwith5‐pointLeadoverBonta Figure 1: Assembly District 18 November General Election

“In the election for State Assembly, for whom would you vote if the candidates were: (ROTATE):

Candidate All Voters Oakland Alameda San Leandro

Abel Guillen 26% 29% 23% 19% Rob Bonta 21% 17% 37% 14% Guillen Lead +5 +12 (-14) +5

Guillen’sLeadExpandsAfterVotersLearnMoreabouttheCandidatesGeneral Election voters also responded very favorably to Guillen’s profile after they heard moreinformationaboutbothcandidates.Afterbeingpresentedwithpositivebiographicaldescriptionsofeachof theAD18 candidates, Guillen’s lead increases from5 to 7 points, expanding his base of support inOaklandandwithotherkeyconstituenciesinAD18.

Figure 2: Assembly District 18 November General Election “In the election for State Assembly, for whom would you vote

if the candidates were: (ROTATE):

Vote After Bios Candidate First Vote Bio Vote Gain Abel Guillen 26% 39% +13% Rob Bonta 21% 32% +11% Guillen Lead +5 +7

NOTE: The Bonta biography tested was taken directly from the poll released publicly in June by the Bonta campaign.

NOTE: Given Rob Bonta’s focus on Alameda in his ballot designation, Guillen updated his ballot designation for the general election to “Oakland/Educator/Boardmember.”

AD 18 Voter Survey—August 2012 Page 2

Guillen Bio Abel Guillen grew up in a working-class neighborhood and was the first in his family to graduate from college, earning a master’s degree from UC Berkeley. Guillen has dedicated his life to helping local schools, creating jobs, and fighting to protect our community from corporate special interests. Guillen served two terms as a Community College Board Member representing Laney, Merritt, Berkeley City College and the College of Alameda. He expanded college access and provided scholarships for thousands of local students and protected job-training programs from state budget cuts. When he discovered that Wall Street banks were charging huge fees and making risky investments with our colleges’ funds, he took action and moved our money into local, community-based banks, putting our district’s dollars back to work here in the East Bay. Guillen is endorsed by teachers, nurses, environmentalists, the California Latino Legislative Caucus, Democratic clubs and progressive leaders. (147 word count) Bonta Bio Rob Bonta learned the value of public service early on. Both of his parents were active with the United Farm Workers and the civil rights movement. Rob Bonta is the Vice Mayor of the city of Alameda. He is also a Deputy City Attorney, and his job is to protect consumers. Bonta is married and the father of three children in public schools. On the Alameda City Council, Bonta has strengthened public safety, reduced pension costs and balanced his city’s budget, and has improved city services for residents. Bonta is also working with the Obama Administration to develop land at a former naval base in Alameda -- a project that will create nine thousand local jobs at no cost to taxpayers. Bonta is endorsed by police officers and firefighters in Oakland, Alameda, and San Leandro, by school employees, by doctors, and by the San Francisco Chronicle. (146 word count)

TheseresultsmoreaccuratelyreflectthestateoftheracethanresearchconductedbytheBontacampaigninJune,whichwasbasedonanincorrectballotdesignationfor Abel Guillen and utilized incorrect information for Guillen’s biographicalstatement.Incontrast,thispolltestedGullen’sactualballotdesignationagainstthedesignation filed by Bonta, as well as an accurate description of Guillen’sbackground test against theBontabiography, taken from thepoll releasedbyhiscampaigninJune.

Morethan2/3rdsofvoterspreferGuillen’ssupportforpublicemployeepensionsandhighspeedrail.AslimminorityofAD18votersagreewithRobBonta’sstatementsonpension

reformsandhighspeedrail

Recently, the Oakland Tribune wrote that there were only a few key distinctions between the twocandidates.TheTribuneeditorialboardwrotethatBonta“speaksmoreforcefullyforpensionreformandaboutthestate’smisguidedhigh‐speedrailplan.”

With these two issues as key differences between the candidates, we tested Guillen’s positions onpensionsandonhigh speed rail compared toBonta’spositionsas reported in theTribune.The surveyresults show thatvoters inAD18overwhelmingly supportAbelGuillen’spositionson thesekey issuesandrepelagainstBonta’sstance.

AD 18 Voter Survey—August 2012 Page 3

Voters Prefer Guillen’s Position on Public Employee Pensions Figure 3: Assembly District 18 November General Election

“Now I am going to read several pairs of descriptions of potential candidates for State Assembly. After I read each pair, please tell me which candidate you prefer”

Candidate Description Voter Preference

(Bonta‐OaklandTribune8/10/12)AcandidatewhospeaksforcefullyonpensionreformforpublicemployeesOR

24%

(Guillen)A candidatewhobelievespublicemployees like teachersdeserveasecureretirementandshouldbeabletokeepthepensiontheyearned.

67%

Voters Side with Guillen’s Position in Support of High Speed Rail

Figure 4: Assembly District 18 November General Election “Now I am going to read several pairs of descriptions of potential candidates

for State Assembly. After I read each pair, please tell me which candidate you prefer”

Candidate Description Voter Preference (Bonta‐OaklandTribune8/10/12)Acandidatewhoisopposedtothestate’shighspeedrailplanOR

20%

(Guillen) Acandidatewhosupports theGovernor’splan tobuildahigh speed rail train creating thousands of good jobs and newtransportationsolutionsinCalifornia

72%

Overall, the survey results demonstrate that Abel Guillen is well positioned to win the Assembly District race in November. Guillen leads the race in an unaided vote and broadens his support after voters learn more about each of the candidates. The results further demonstrate that Guillen’s positions on public employee pensions and high speed rail are more in tune with the electorate than those of his opponent, Rob Bonta, which adds to Guillen’s strength in the general election. i Methodology: From August 23-27 2012, FM3 completed a survey of 402 Assembly District 18 voters likely to cast ballots in the November 2012 Presidential election. The margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/-4.9%. Some results do not total to 100% because of rounding.