Activities and Resources Baseline Plan during construction and financing of the LHC (2003-2010)

Luciano MAIANI Council, December 13, 2002

Council. Dec. 12, 2002 L. MAIANI. Baseline Plan 2

INTRODUCTION

•The Baseline Plan for the construction and financing of the LHC project (2003-2010), Doc. SPC/818/FC/4629, aims at providing a solid basis for the completion of the LHC and a corresponding revision of the 1996 agreement

•This document marks the conclusion of the complex processes set in motion by the LHC Cost to Completion Review made in 2001

•It builds on a very large amount of work (Task Forces, ERC, Medium Term Plan June 2002, Action Plan, September 2002);

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• Throughout the process, a consistent picture has been developed by CERN Management whereby the Plan would contain a balanced package of measures:

• Reduction of non-LHC programme and savings • Revision of the LHC schedule, to follow the industrial

production;• Prolongation of the LHC repayment period to 2010.

• First proposals made by CERN Management in March have been finalised in the Medium Term Plan 2003-2006 presented in June.

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The Plan is finalised to the construction and financing of the LHC;

it provides a base-line only, certainly not an optimal picture of what CERN could do for European Particle Physics in the long run;

CERN’s know-how and infrastructure under used. We hope Council may reconsider the scientific activities,

with more resources added (P&M!)

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Seven PillarsActivity Programme MTP 2002 (SPC/811; FC/4567)

LHC in 2007;Limited scientific and R&D programme.

Resource Plan: Material MTP 2002 (SPC/811; FC/4567)LHC cost to completion; ContingencySavings in Industrial ServicesLocal Staff: M P transfer if established.

Resource Plan: Manpower CERN/FC/4628CERN-wide analysis for the period 2—3-2010

Indexation of the expenditure budget during the LHC construction period CERN/FC/4619/Rev.

Builds a margin against cost escalation of LHC contracts

Monitoring and Control Tools Action Plan (FC/4591; CC/2461)Finance and Programme Control;Earned Value Management;Annual LHC Cost & Schedule Review, first results;Audit Committee.

Indexation of MS/HS Contributions over the period this document

Indexation to keep purchasing power over 2003-2010

Loan from the EIB FC/4608 (recommended by FC, Nov.6)

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2. Scientific Activity of CERN, 2003-2010

• The phasing out of a broad scientific programme has continued after LEP2000.

• Today, the whole of CERN is committed to the LHC, with a limited number of ring-fenced parallel activities

• To keep a minimum of scientific diversity • To preserve vital options for CERN’s future

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Resources for the LHC

Other16%

Energy4%

Debts3%

LHC Exp. 8%

LHC M&A 62%

Infra&Serv.9%

Non LHC Physics Prog.5%

Other Accelerators8%

Tech. Development1%

2003-2010, Personnel+Material

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LHC Experiments

• LHC experiments fully engaged in the construction phase, to have detectors ready for the LHC physics run in 2007.

• Experiments have agreed to live within the limits of the pledged funds at any time.

• ALICE, ATLAS and CMS. Contingency plans, compatible with the available funds have been reviewed by the LHCC and presented to the RRBs

• Plans include staging and deferrals of items that will only be needed later, for high-luminosity running.

• No cost over-run has been identified so far by LHCb.

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LHC Computing• Of particular interest, the work on computing facilities for

physics data analysis and computational Grids, and on advanced electronics techniques for detector readout systems.

• The R&D phase (phase 1) of the LHC Computing Grid (LCG) project started in 2001. The construction phase (phase 2) of the LCG project will extend over 2006-2008.

Catalyse the development of data-intensive Grid computing, pursuing open solutions to fulfill the challenging requirements of science at CERN's Large Hadron Collider;Open environment where investments on applied research for data-intensive Grid computing can be made by government, academia and industry.

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= Approved = Under Consideration

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010LEPALEPHDELPHIL3OPAL

LHCATLASCMSALICELHCbOther LHC experiments(e.g. TOTEM)

SPS Heavy ionsCOMPASSNA48Test Beams

North Areas West Areas

Neutrino / CNGS

Other FacilitiesTOF NeutronADISOLDECASTDIRACHARPTest beams

East Hall

R&D(Detector & Accelerator)

PS a

nd S

PS S

hutd

own

The Scientific Programme

Budget line for Fixed Target Experiments established from 2006 onwards

dotted lines = = extensions yet to be approved

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• The experimental programme described above implies the support of a large number of external users.

• about 6500 registered CERN users (4750 of which are from the Member States) in 2002.

• On average some 2000 of these people are on site at any one time, requiring support of one kind or another.

• This demonstrates the vitality of the scientific programme of the Organization but also inevitably places a heavy burden on the infrastructure.

Users

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3. Budget Estimates

• Basically coincide with those given in the Medium Term Plan, June 2002, in particular for the scientific programme, the cost to completion of the LHC and the CERN share to Detector construction.

• Fully consistent with the Draft Budget for 2003

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Tab. 1A. CERN share of LHC Detectors: all-out estimate

•Includes cost escalation of contracts and PE cost•Gives an absolute ceiling to the total cost to CERN (current money)

1995-2001 2002-2007 Total

CERN share of detectors construction+C&I 125.6 144 270

Common construction, C&I, M&O 57.4 115 172

Cost Escalation 21

TOTAL MATERIALS 463Personnel 329.7 436 766

GRAND TOTAL 1248

19Indexation of PE cost

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Tab. 6A. LHC construction: all-out estimate•Includes cost escalation of contracts and PE cost•Gives an absolute ceiling to the total cost to CERN (current prices) 1995-2001 2002-2007 Total

Machine Hardware, Installation & Experimental Areas 1006.0 2071 3077

Test & Preoperation (includes additional infrastructures,94 MCHF)

38.4 226 264

LHC Injectors 35.2 36 71

Contingency 140

Cost Escalation of contracts 191

TOTAL MATERIALS 3743Personnel 368.5 661 1029

GRAND TOTAL 4802

30Indexation of PE cost

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Annual LHC Cost&Schedule Review

• Committee – J. Peoples (FNAL), Chair – R. Bacher (DESY) – M. Cox (JET)– M. Harrison (BNL)– M. Pannier (Min. Finances, France) – A. Wrulich (PSI)

• Met on Oct. 21 to 23• Conclusions to be included in the December 2002 LHC Status Report.

Committee was asked to respond to three issues • whether the LHC Project Cost-to-Completion could be used as a baseline

cost estimate for tracking project cost performance; • whether current project schedule could be used as a baseline schedule for

tracking project performance; • to evaluate the tools that project team currently uses and plans to use to

monitor the cost and schedule performance.

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Recommendations (Dec. 1, 2002)

– that CERN Management adopt the LHC Project Cost-to-Completion estimate (hereafter Cost-to-Completion) of 3,220 MCHF, as the project cost baseline for tracking the project cost performance for the remainder of the project.

– that CERN Management adopt the current project schedule that forecasts the start of commissioning on April 2007 for tracking the project schedule performance for the remainder of the project.

– that the LHC project team continue to use the project tools that are currently in use and that they quickly move to complete and deploy the proposed earned value system (EVM), since it will provide additional tools to closely monitor cost and schedule performance.

Note: 3220=3077+143

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Extra costs (wrt. Dec. 2001) submitted to the Comittee

“The Project Director informed the Committee that two cost overruns had occurred since the Cost-to-Completion had been prepared. These were 9 MCHF in civil engineering and 7 MCHF in magnet cryostats.”

• Are reported in the LHC Status Report, Dec.2002• To be added to the Cost to Completion and compensated

from the contingency, in next MTP, June 2003

4. Income and related Budgetary Balance• 4.1 Regular Contribution• The level of the annual contribution base is 937.5 MCHF at 1995

prices (Council, Dec. 1994)• This basis reduced by 9.3% (in stages) to reach 850.3 MCHF, at

1995 prices, from 2001 onwards.• The regular contribution is the sum of this base and of the

contributions to the budget of six Member States.• Planning proceeds on the basis of a 2% cost-variation increase per

year model for expenditure. • From 1998 to 2005 inclusive, the Host States’ contribution are

indexed by 2% per year while the regular contributions of the other Member States are indexed by 1%.

From 2006 onwards, we ask Council to “make its best effort to index the regular contributions according to the calculated overall Cost Variation Index”.

Tab. 10. Anticipated Budgetary Position (MCHF, current prices)

Advanced contributions from MS can ease the burden of the interests cost…and liberate resources for new activities!

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6. CONCLUSIONS

• The Baseline Plan is the result of an impressive amount of work during the last year, by CERN Staff, the ERC and other external collaborators;

• A very detailed and solid evaluation of programmes, resources (P and M) and costs;

• A stable cost estimate of the LHC programme;• The Plan provides a tough but solid and viable

basis for the LHC completion in 2007.