Act 61 Increased Investment and Savings Scenarios

Act 61 Increased Investment and Savings

ScenariosBounding Scenarios

December 26, 2005

December 26 Bounding Scenarios

• The following tables present estimates of increased savings that would be associated with five different scenarios for increased investment in energy efficiency through the Energy Efficiency Utility mechanism, as supported by the statewide Energy Efficiency Charge.

• Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 are the two scenarios previously developed and presented at the December 1, 2005, Act 61 Workshop, and are provided here for reference.

• Scenarios 3, 4, and 5 are new “bounding” scenarios that reflect EVT’s understanding of the definitions of three extreme cases that parties to the current ACT 61 energy efficiency proceedings have requested - to inform their recommendations to the PSB (due January 6) for the final three scenarios that would be analyzed more closely.

• All these estimates should be taken as highly preliminary. It should also be noted that while these estimates include expenditures and services of other parties, including the DPS, EEU Contract Administrator, EEU Fiscal Agent, and Burlington Electric Department, none of these parties have approved these estimates.

Investment (Million $) 2006 2007 2008 TOTAL

Current EEU Budget $16.7 $17.6 $18.2 $52.5

Scenario 1 Increment $1.4 $3.3 $5.5 $10.1

Scenario 1 Total $18.0 $20.9 $23.7 $62.6

% Increase 8% 19% 30% 19%

Scenario 1

Savings (GWh) 2006 2007 2008 TOTAL

Current EEU Goal 61 71 81 213

Scenario 1 Increment 6 12 26 44

Scenario 1 Total 67 83 107 258

% Increase 9% 17% 33% 21%

All values are preliminary estimates for statewide EEU costs and savings

This scenario, as presented at 12/1/05 Act 61 workshop, moderately ramps up current strategies and services without current budget constraints.




Scenario 2 Total $20.1 $26.5 $35.4 $82.0

% Increase 21% 50% 95% 56%

Scenario 2





% Increase 21% 48% 93% 57%


This scenario, as presented at 12/1/05 Act 61 workshop, aggressively ramps up strategies and services within current policy guidance to approximately twice the current budget in 2008.




Scenario 3 Total $16.7 $17.6 $18.2 $52.5

% Increase 0% 0% 0% 0%

Scenario 3





% Increase 28% 20% 17% 21%


This “bounding” scenario, re-allocates the currently planned EEU budget to maximize cost-effective annual incremental electricity savings, unconstrained by equity or any other current statutory or regulatory policy objectives.




Scenario 4 Total $35.5 $71.3 $92.8 $199.6

% Increase 113% 305% 410% 280%

Scenario 4





% Increase 59% 148% 181% 135%


This “bounding” scenario assumes a base of currently planned strategies and services with current funding – plus as much additional cost-effective investment over next 3 years as possible without policy constraints (maximum achievable potential from the DPS 2002 potential study).




Scenario 5 Total $20.1 $31.5 $52.5 $104.1

% Increase 21% 79% 188% 98%

Scenario 5





% Increase 21% 67% 152% 86%


This “bounding” scenario is defined by ramping up to three times current EEU investment in 2008, 2/3 of which would be under existing policy guidance and 1/3 of which would maximize annual incremental electricity savings, unconstrained by equity or any other current statutory or regulatory policy objectives.

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Act 61 Increased Investment and Savings Scenarios