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european capacity building initiative ecbi
‘Common Time Frames’: What & Why?A CONTRIBUTION TO THE DEBATE ON ARTICLE 4.10 OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT
Presentation given at the 2018 ecbi Oxford Fellows Colloquium,
Benito MüllerDirector ecbi
european capacity building initiativeinitiative européenne de renforcem
ent des capacités
ecbi
for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations
pour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Part 1. Introduction
european capacity building initiative ecbiTarget Periods, Periods of Implementation, and NDC Frequency
2030 NDC 2025 NDC 2035 NDC 2040 NDC
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Target Periods (TPs): Periods of Implementation (POI)
5-year NDC frequency 1-year TPs5-year TPs5-year POI
2030 NDC 2040 NDC
2020 2030 2040
10-year NDC frequency 1-year TPs10-year TPs10-year POI
2035 NDC2030 NDC 2040 NDC
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
5-year NDC frequency 1-year TPs10-year POI
Art. 4.9. Each Party shall communicate a nationally determined contribution every five years in accordance with decision 1/CP21
european capacity building initiative ecbi
§ 23. Urges those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new nationally determined contribution and to do so every five years thereafter …;
§ 24. Requests those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2030 to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions and to do so every five years thereafter …;
What Common Time Frames?Procedural Interpretation: Communication/Updating Timetable
european capacity building initiative ecbi§24 Communication & Updating Cycles
21-30
2020
31-40
2030
2025
2035
21-30
31-40
(a) Mid-term Updating
INDC 21-30
2015
202031-40
2030
2025
21-30
2035
31-40
41-50
INDC 21-30
2015
(b) Up-front Updating
= Planning Horizon
= being communicated (indicative) = time of communication
= synchronized ambition updating space
= being communicated (updated and fixed)
european capacity building initiative ecbi
2020 2025
Indicated 2025 Ambition (INDC)
2030
2023 2028
C. Public assessment of indicated longer-term ambition vision
A. Ratcheting-up and locking-in short-term ambition
B. Indicating longer-termambition
vision
Updated & Fixed 2030 Ambition
Indicated 2030 Ambition
Dynamic Contribution Cycle
Global Stocktake
2035
2035
Updated & Fixed 2025Ambition (NDC)
2020
2025
2030D. Government assessment of indicated longer-term ambition vision
Global Stocktake
european capacity building initiative ecbiHOW?
• Urges those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2025 to communicate by 2020 a new nationally determined contribution and to do so every five years thereafter …;[§ 23]
• Requests those Parties whose INDC … contains a time frame up to 2030 to communicate or update by 2020 these contributions and to do so every five years thereafter …;[§ 24]
• Invites all Parties in 2025 to update their 2030 NDC, and communicate an indicative 2035 NDC, and to do so every five years thereafter.
Dynamic Contribution Cycle
european capacity building initiative ecbiSupport for the Dynamic Contribution Cycle
european capacity building initiative ecbiSupport for the Dynamic Contribution Cycle
european capacity building initiative ecbi
End of Part 1
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Part 2. Submitted Options
& Issues Raised
european capacity building initiative ecbi(b) 5-year ‘one-step-at-a-time’
31-35
2030
31-35
36-40
36-40
2035
26-30
2025
26-30
26-30
31-35
31-40
2030
31-40
2025
31-40
(a) 10-year ‘up-front updating’
2035
31-40
31-40
31-40
Submitted Options
european capacity building initiative ecbi
31-35
2025
(c) Simple 5+5
36-40
2030
41-45
2035
31-35
36-40
31-35
41-45
31-35
36-40
(d) Dynamic Contribution Cycle
31-35
2025
2030
2035
31-35
41-4536-40
31-35
36-40 41-45
31-35
36-40
Submitted Options
36-40
36-40
european capacity building initiative ecbi
= Implementation Period for updated & fixed NDCs
= Implementation Period for indicative NDCs
(c) DCC with time lag
10-yrs15-yrs2035
46-5036-40 41-45
10-yrs
15-yrs2040
51-5541-45 46-50
(b) DCC
2035
41-4536-40
5-yrs 10-yrs
2040
46-5041-45
5-yrs
10-yrs
(a) One-step-at-a-time
36-40
2035 5-yrs
41-45
2040 5-yrs
Issue 1: What Period of Implementation?
european capacity building initiative ecbi
(a) Simple 5+5 Cycle (b) Dynamic Contribution Cycle
41-4536-40 41-4536-40
= Planning Horizon for fixed NDCs
= Planning Horizon for indicative NDCs
46-5041-45 46-5041-45
20355-yrs
10-yrs
20405-yrs
10-yrs
2035 10-yrs
2040 10-yrs
Issue 2: What Planning Horizon?
european capacity building initiative ecbi
Thank You!
