ACID RAININ

MASSACHUSETTS1988

THE MASSACHUSETTS ACID RAINRESEARCH PROGRAM IN ACTION

By

Paul J. Godfrey, Ph.D.Water Resources Research Center

University of Massachusetts at Amherst

Sponsored byThe Massachusetts Executive Office of Environmental Affairs

James S. Hoyte, SecretaryMichael S. Dukakis, Governor

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank the Executive Office of Environmental Affairs for its vision inassembling the Massachusetts Acid Rain Research Program and including as part of that programsupport for this effort to compile the results of the program into a booklet for publicdissemination. Special thanks to Assistant Secretary for Research Rick Taupier for his patienceand assistance during the work on the booklet and to the members of the Ad Hoc AdvisoryCommittee, Elizabeth Kline (Environmental Affairs), Peter Oatis (Division of Fisheries &Wildlife), John Fitch(Massachusetts Audubon Society), and Carol Rowan-West (Department ofEnvironmental Quality Engineering). The author has benefitted from numerous discussions withthe Governor's Acid Rain Scientific Advisory Council, the Governor's Working Group on AcidRain, and many of the hundreds of researchers throughout New England. The efforts of JohnFitch, Ann Shortelle, Ann Lezberg, Alan Van Arsdale, Gretchen Smith, Richard Keller, ArthurBeale, John Cole, and Laurie Godfrey in reviewing and making many helpful suggestions duringthe preparation of the manuscript are greatly appreciated. This booklet is dedicated to the thousands of citizens who are Acid Rain Monitoring Projectvolunteers, especially Mr. Leon Ogrodnik. Their hard work and deep concern for theenvironment of Massachusetts have made the Massachusetts Acid Rain Research Programpossible.

COVER MA P NOTE:

The cover map illustrates the varying degrees of sensitivity to acidification and loss of acid neutralizing capacity of

surface watrs in Massachusetts towns. Dark red indicates that a majority of a town’s water bodies are acidified;

purple grid lines indicate critical waters, and solid orange indicates the endangered category; purple gridding

indicates highly sensitive, dark yellow is sensitive and light yellow indicates no t sensitive. No information is

available for white areas. Data to construct the map were collected by Acid Rain Monitoring Project volunteers, and

it was produced by A.R.M. staff at the Massachusetts Water Resources Research Center, University of

Massachusetts, Amherst. Back cover: Pelham, MA kettle pond in Fall.

Figure Credits: p. 3, 18: Massachusetts Wildlife, Mass. Div. Of Wildlife and Fisheries; p. 6: National Research

Council; p. 10 bottom: Les Campbell; p. 15: Metropolitan District Commission; p. 20, 24: Gretchen Smith; p. 25, 26,

28, 39, 46: Arthur Beale; p. 30: John Cole; p. 33: M arie-Françoise Walk; back cover: James B ywater; o ther figs.:

Water Resources Research Center, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.

Design/layout: John Cole

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WHY SHOULD I READ ABOUT

"ACID RAIN IN MASSACHUSETTS?”

PROLOGUE

Acid rain has probably increased your health risks, cost you money, and changed theopportunities available to you and your children in the future. It is the cause of friction betweenthe United States and Canada and between between the northeastern U.S. and the Midwest. Itseffects have been both downplayed and exaggerated. And it is a test of mankind's ability to solvea new kind of pollution problem -- one too fractious to be solved at any single political level orby a single country, too complex to be fully comprehended by any one scientific discipline, andtoo pervasive to be ignored or escaped. This booklet is intended to introduce you to the nature of the acid rain problem and theinternational, national, and state efforts to understand its causes and consequences, particularlythe efforts underway in Massachusetts through the Massachusetts Acid Rain Research Program(MARRP). It is meant to convey some of the excitement generated by the Massachusetts AcidRain Research Program as it has drawn on the research talents in the Commonwealth to understand the scope of the problem facing the state and to contribute significantly to itsresolution. Acid rain (more properly termed acid deposition) is an international problem affecting manynatural and man-made resources located downwind of major industrial regions of the world. ForMassachusetts this problem has become critical. Massachusetts is a densely populated state withabundant resources: water bodies, forest and agricultural lands, and architectural and monumentresources that preserve the heritage of our nation's founding. These endangered resources, underheavy demand for increased use by use our industrialized state, are also endangered by acid rain. Massachusetts bears a responsibility for solving the acid rain problem. In Massachusetts,resources such as air quality, drinking water, sport fisheries, outdoor recreation, forests,agriculture, and cultural resources are all vulnerable to the effects of acid deposition. Corrosionof metal drinking water distribution pipes due to the acidity of water in Quabbin Reservoiralready requires the annual expenditure of $1.2 million dollars to insure that the tap water ofmetropolitan Boston will not exceed safe levels of toxic metals in the tap water. In QuabbinReservoir, one of our major sport fisheries, acidification appears to have reduced the rainbowand lake trout. The forests on Mt. Greylock, our highest peak, are showing tell-tale signs of aciddeposition. Monuments in historic Boston are heavily corroded and require expensive cleaningand restoration; others, such as the gravestone of Paul Revere, cannot be repaired. Emissions causing acid deposition from Massachusetts industry, utilities and transportationsectors are the largest in New England, but recent research suggests that Massachusetts createsonly 10 - 30% of the acid deposition in the state by emissions from its utilities, industriesand transportation sources. However, one cannot proclaim Massachusetts a hapless victim,because this overlooks the complexity and interrelatedness of our environment and economy. Until the 1970's when statewide emissions were reduced by 41% from levels of the 1960s,

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Massachusetts contributed more significantly to acid deposition in the New England region thanit does now. Although impacts were not observed until after that date, some responsibility forthe cumulative loss of acid neutralizing ability in our environment belongs to us. Even now,despite the fact that emissions have been reduced within the state, we are major importers ofelectricity from other states and we use the products of industries that are major emitters.Our choice is either to pay for acid rain's damage in environmental loss or in higher prices forelectricity and products. Which of these courses is chosen is a national decision, but a decisionrequiring our informed input. Acid rain is a major threat to the quality of life in Massachusetts. Solving the problemrequires the collective, multilevel effort of scientists, political leaders, public agencies, business,and the public. We must understand the acid deposition problem and fashion an equitablesolution for the nation, for Massachusetts, and for each of us.

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ACID RAIN -- ARE WE OUR OWN ENEMY?

< Acid rain has existed since the turn of the century, increasing drasticallyuntil the 1950s and levelling off in the 1980s.

< Acid rain is created by emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxidefrom oil and coal burning electric utilities, industry, cars and trucks.

< Most emissions occur in the Midwest; New England accounts for only 3%of the total.

< Emissions are transformed and transported by the atmospheric weatherpatterns and fall as wet or dry deposition or may be collected by thelandscape as gases, fine particles or condensation.

< A variety of techniques demonstrate that Massachusetts receives 70-90%of its acid deposition from sources outside the region.

< The average pH of precipitation in Massachusetts is 4.2. On every acre ofthe state, 0.3-0.7 pounds of hydrogen ion, 16.2-27.5 pounds of sulfate,and 8-22 pounds of nitrate fall each year as a result of acid deposition.

< Wet acid deposition is reasonably well quantified but relatively little isknown about dry deposition and cloud condensation.

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WHAT ARE THE ORIGINS, SOURCES, AND MAGNITUDES

OF SOx AND NOx EMISSIONS

IMPACTING MASSACHUSETTS?

When fossil fuels, primarily coal and oil,are burned they produce emissions of sulfurdioxide and nitrogen oxides that arechemically transformed to acids in theatmosphere and later redeposited on earth. In the United States, 3/4 of the sulfurdioxide emissions come from electricitygeneration; nitrogen oxides result fromexhaust emissions of autos, trucks, airplanesand other internal combustion engines,electricity generation and industrial sources. These emissions are transformed into acidsor potentially acid materials by theatmosphere and are transported with theflow of weather across the country. Pollutants may be carried hundreds, eventhousands, of miles. Some landscapes, suchas those in Massachusetts, are poorlyequipped to handle these pollutants. Theglaciers left much of Massachusetts coveredwith thin soils over granitic rocks or glacialoutwash sands. Limited areas containnatural limestone deposits which canprovide unlimited buffering capacity tolocalized soils and waters, but for the mostpart, the Commonwealth has little naturalprotection against the deposition of acids. There is little question that aciddeposition began around the turn of the 20thcentury as a result of increased air pollutionassociated with industrialization. Its severityprobably increased with increased use ofelectricity and with the growth of moderntransportation, steeply rising in the periodafter 1945, and levelling off in the 1980's. During the past 100 years, the environmenthas been absorbing the added insult, usingnatural processes to buffer against changes. But beginning in the 1960's, change became

observable and now appears to be increasingin occurrence and severity as nature'sdefenses have been overwhelmed. Acid rain is created by the emission ofsulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides into theatmosphere. Therefore, much attention hasfocused on regions of high pollutantemissions in the United States, notably theMidwest. The top ten sulfur dioxideemitting states are in descending order:Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Illinois,Missouri, Texas, Kentucky, Florida, WestVirginia, and Tennessee. They account for57% of the total sulfur dioxide emissions inthe U.S. By comparison, the six NewEngland states account for a little less than3% of the total; Massachusetts accounts for1.3%. The situation changes little fornitrogen oxides. The same top ten sulfurdioxide emitters produce 41% of thenitrogen oxides in the United States whileNew England produce only 2.7% andMassachusetts only 1.2%. Once pollutants are emitted to theatmosphere, they are transported andtransformed into acids. The transportationoccurs within weather systems as they crossthe country. Air pollution transformation toacids requires appropriate conditions oftemperature, moisture, light and chemicalcatalysts. Although the old adage "whatgoes up must come down" certainly appliesto air pollutants, it belies the complexity ofthe phenomenon of generating acid rain. Some portion of the pollutants may beentrained in clouds and form the nuclei ofpotential raindrops. The pollutants may betransported great distances along a storm'spath until they fall as "wet deposition" in the

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form of fog, rain, snow, or sleet. Another portion of the pollutants istransported in a different fashion. Theseparticles and gases do not combine withcloud moisture but fall to the landscape asdry particles. As a rule, the quantity of this"dry deposition" declines steeply as thedistance from the source increases. In otherwords, because these pollutants are ofdifferent weights and sizes, the length oftheir stay in the atmosphere varies. Tovisualize the effect, imagine tossing ahandful of dirt into the air on a moderatelywindy day. The larger particles will fallclose by and the finest dust will drift quite adistance downwind. At some distance, allparticles will have fallen to the ground, nomatter how small their size. Gases which do not undergotransformation to particles bathe thelandscape as well. As these gases contactthe landscape, some adhere to surfaces andare thus removed from the atmosphere. Later precipitation or dew formation canconvert these to acids.

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The distance between the source ofemissions and receptor of the deposition isan important factor in determining theamount of acid deposition contributed by thesource. The relative importance of localizeddeposition versus long range transport is thecrux of the current debate. Regardless of theform of acid deposition, the amount ofdeposition declines as the distance from thesource increases. If a major source ofemissions is sufficiently far from a particularreceptor that only 1% of the pollutants cantravel that far, then a local source of thesame pollutants emitting only 1/100 theamount of the larger emitter may haveexactly the same effect. Therefore, eventhough the top ten polluting states provideabout 44 times more pollutants thanMassachusetts, the distance between thosesources and Massachusetts may make localsources relatively more important. This is one of the major challenges forscience presented by the acid rainphenomenon. There is no argument over thequantity of emissions from various regionsof the country, but there is disagreementover how much any one region actuallyaffects the acid deposition in another region.So much depends on the weather. Severaltechniques have been devised to resolve thiskey question. One approach is to use thevast network of the National WeatherService to provide data for the computationof the movement or trajectory of a parcel ofair across the country. One can measure theamount of acid deposition at a location at aparticular time and then apply sophisticatedcomputer models, huge amounts of weatherdata and lots of expensive computer time topredict where that parcel of air had beenseveral days before. Using this technique ofback trajectory analysis, researchers atseveral locations in New England haveestimated that roughly 70% of New Englanddeposition originates from sources to thewest and southwest, that is, from the general

direction of the Ohio River Valley inthe Midwest. Another approach uses sophisticatedchemical analysis of coal and oil todetermine unique "regional chemicalfingerprints" that enable one to detect theorigin of bodies of polluted air. One maythen examine the "fingerprints" of stormevents to determine the principal sources ofacid deposition. Results confirm theconclusions reached by back trajectoryanalysis. Further confirmation has resulted fromtracking planned releases of a very rare gassimilar in density to sulfur dioxide. Theresults of this "CAPTEX" experimentfurther elucidate the patterns of long-rangetransport of pollutants from the Midwest toNew England. More recently, the smoke particles fromlarge forest fires in West Virginiadramatized the ability of weather to carry airpollutants from the Midwest to NewEngland. In this case, smoke particles werecarried to New England in a single day. However, it is also clear from some ofthese experiments that the contributionsfrom long range versus local sources varyconsiderably. In northern Vermont, wherethere are virtually no local emission sources,90% of acid deposition may come from theMidwest and the remainder from Canadaand New England. In southeastern NewEngland, close to urban centers and severallarge power plants, less than 50% ofdeposition may come from sources outsideNew England. Recognizing the state's responsibility tominimize excessive within-state emissions,recently enacted legislation "caps" currentemissions for five years while an appropriateregulatory plan is developed and mandates asubstantial reduction in emissions over thefollowing five years. A wise regulatorypolicy requires that emission reductions beequitable, produce the desired effect at least

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The pH scale ranks the degree ofacidity/alkalinity of a substance orsolution: the higher the number, the morealkaline or basic; the lower the numberthe more acidic. The scale ranges from1.0 to 14.0 and represents the logarithmicconcentration of hydrogen ions orhydroxyl ions, the two constituents ofwater (H+ + OH- = H2O). When both arein equal concentration, the pH is 7.0 orneutral. Excess hydrogen ions yieldacidity and the pH drops. A ten-foldincrease in the acid concentration dropsthe pH by 1.0 units. Excess hydroxylions yield alkalinity and raise the pH. Consequently for example, water with apH of 5.0 is ten times as acidic as pH 6.0water. PH 4.0 is 100 times more acidicthan pH 6.0, and pH 3.0 is 1000 timesworse. While this makes sense toscientists, it can be misleading to mostobservers. PH 5.0 does not seem toomuch worse than pH 6.0. To put thesenumbers into perspective, the graph below may be useful.

cost, and maximize the environmentalbenefit. Unfortunately, the monitoringnetwork and the computer models inexistence for the study of long-rangetransport do not provide sufficient resolutionfor a within-state (mesoscale) evaluation ofemission sources. Nor do they incorporateestimates of the sources and contributions ofother forms of wet and dry deposition. Clearly, better "mesoscale" models areneeded, but that is not all. Another problemis that too few monitoring sites exist withinthe state. As part of MARRP,Massachusetts is doing its part to remedy

this deficiency by erecting more monitoringsites and evaluating newly developed mesoscale models. Using preliminary datafrom this new network in the state'smesoscale modeling project, a storm eventon May 8-10, 1986 was analyzed. Duringthat event, 69.5% of the acid deposition atWaltham had been generated within thestate; only 1.35% at Truro was local inorigin. As the data improve with theaddition of more monitoring sites and yearsof study, we will be able to develop a stateand regional strategy to cope with aciddeposition.

HOW MUCH WET AND DRY DEPOSITION

IS FALLING UPON MASSACHUSETTS?

Regardless of the source, Massachusettsexperiences high levels of wet (rain andsnow) acid deposition. Uncontaminated rainhas a pH of 5.0 to 5.6, already acidicprincipally because naturally occurringatmospheric carbon dioxide dissolves inwater to create a mildly acidic solution ofcarbonic acid. The average annual pH ofprecipitation in Massachusetts is near 4.2,approximately six times more acidic thanuncontaminated precipitation. On every acreof land, 0.3 to 0.7 pounds of hydrogen ion,16.2 to 27.5 pounds of sulfate and 8 to 22pounds of nitrate falls per year as a result ofacid precipitation. Acid levels varyseasonally, increasing in summer by 2- to5-fold over winter values. This increase isdue, in part, to more rapid transformation ofpollutants into acids under higher summertemperatures; in part, it is due to increasedenergy usage for cooling and vehiculartransportation in summer.

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For other forms of wet deposition, muchless is known. Recent research has revealedthat cloud fog and mist are much moreacidic than precipitation. The bottoms ofclouds are their most acidic part. Whereclouds contact the ground, as onmountaintops, collected moisture is oftena pH unit lower, or ten times more acidic,than values from the same clouds' rain. Aspart of MARRP, several stations monitoringthe acidity of clouds and fog have beenestablished in central Massachusetts. Theywill help determine the local or long-rangeorigin of low level cloud and fog acidityand, consequently, contribute to thedevelopment of a state strategy for reducingemissions. Dry deposition is also poorly understood. It is believed that between 30% and 50% of

the total acid deposition is in the dry formof sulfate and nitrate particles or gases ofsulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. Untilvery recently, the placement of appropriatemonitoring facilities to measure drydeposition was inhibited by the cost anddifficulty in maintaining their constantoperation. In 1985, MARRP placed such afacility on the Quabbin Reservation incentral Massachusetts, and, in 1988, otherfacilities on Mt. Greylock in westernMassachusetts, the Fox Bottom area of theCape Cod National Seashore, and theUniversity of Massachusetts StateAgricultural Experiment Station in Walthamare being established. These sites shouldsoon begin to yield an assessment of the drydeposition falling on Massachusettslandscapes.

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National Atmospheric Deposition Program sampling site at the Quabbin Reservoir Watershed.

The Quabbin Reservoir at Belchertown – primary source of Metropolitan Boston drinking water.

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ARE WE LOSING THE WILDLIFE

IN OUR LAKES AND STREAMS?

< Sixty-four percent of Massachusetts' surface waters are vulnerable to acid deposition.< Five and one-half percent are already acidified.< Northern Worcester County and southeastern Massachusetts are most sensitive.< National estimates of sensitive lakes in Massachusetts grossly underestimate the true

number.< Even with constant or slightly declining levels of acid deposition, acidification of surface

waters is likely to continue.< The majority of reservoirs studied have shown significant losses in ability to neutralize

acid rain.< Quabbin Reservoir has lost 75% of its acid neutralizing capacity in 40 years.< Rainbow trout, once the dominant sport fish in the Quabbin, can no longer survive there.< Smelt, the dominant prey for many sport fish in Quabbin, have suffered drastic

reproductive failures in recent years.< Methyl mercury concentrations in sport fish have recently exceeded levels permissible for

human consumption. One possible contributing cause is the increased input of sulfatefrom acid rain.

< Soils in much of Massachusetts have lost their ability to adsorb sulfate which willaccelerate the acidification of surface waters.

< Of eighteen Millers River tributaries with healthy fish populations in the 1950s, two havelost all fish, eight have lost all but one species, and eight remain unchanged.

< Some surface waters may be temporarily "saved" from acidification by liming, butrelatively few lakes have the proper characteristics to make this economically feasible andstreams are even more costly to protect.

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Acidity can be neutralized by any ion thatremoves H+, usually by combining with itto make a new compound. In mostnatural systems, alkaline compounds suchas calcium carbonate (limestone) producethis acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) aspart of the weathering process of rocksand soils. Acid neutralizing capacity(ANC) exists to varying degrees inorganisms, soils, rocks and water in theenvironment. Without ANC, any acidadded to part of an environment wouldcause an immediate change in the pH. Thus ANC buffers the system againstchanges in pH and is crucial to protectingthe environment against acidification. Itis, therefore, one of the best measures ofthe sensitivity of environments to acidinputs. Natural environments tend to becircumneutral or around pH 7.0; this is thepH range to which most organisms areadapted. Lower pHs increase the stress onthe physiological systems of mostorganisms. Aquatic organisms such asclams and crayfish that build shells orexternal skeletons from calcium require apH above 6.0; rainbow trout and smallmouth bass begin to disappear at pH5.5, and brown trout and largemouth bassat 5.0. At pH 5.0, the acid neutralizing capacity of most waters is exhausted.Surface waters in this condition areconsidered acidified.

WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF ACID DEPOSITION

UPON AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS IN MASSACHUSETTS?

The impact of acid deposition on theaquatic environment is determined both bythe quantity of acids deposited on itswatershed and by the degree to which thenatural system can neutralize the acids. Prior to 1983, relatively little was knownabout the sensitivity of surface waters inMassachusetts, except for surface drinkingwater supplies. Between 1983 and 1985, theAcid Rain Monitoring (ARM) Projectsampled 3370 of the state's 4952 namedsurface waters to establish baselineinformation on the current status ofMassachusetts' surface waters. Usingalkalinity as an indication of the aciddeposition that a water body could tolerate,the ARM Project found that 5.5% of thewater bodies were already acidified; 16.8%were in critical condition; 20.0%endangered; and 21.7% highly sensitive.Overall 64% of the state's surface watersshowed some degree of vulnerability to aciddeposition. Surface waters in northernWorcester County and the southeastern partof the state were the most vulnerable toacidification.

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MASSACHUSETTS ACID RAIN MONITORING PROJECT

Sensitivity Alkalinity Lakes Streams Category (ppm) Number Percent Number Percent Acidified <0* 62 4.3 123 6.3 Critical >0 - 2 213 14.9 354 18.2 Endangered >2 - 5 277 19.4 397 20.5 Highly Sensitive >5 - 10 311 21.8 419 21.6 Sensitive >10 - 20 305 21.4 364 18.7 Not Sensitive >20 266 18.2 285 14.7 Total 1428 1942 * and pH <5.0

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Without the ARM Project, one of the firstprojects in MARRP, a serious error by theU.S. EPA in its "Eastern Lakes Survey"might not have been discovered. The ARMProject sampled nearly every lake andstream in Massachusetts while the U.S. EPAEastern Lakes Survey used a statisticalscheme to select lakes to sample in the entireeastern U.S. In the EPA study, only 99 lakeswere sampled in Massachusetts. Given thescope of their sampling effort, EPA usedmaps of insufficient hydrological detail togenerate a list of all the lakes from which to select those to be sampled.

Apparently, all lakes smaller than 10 acresand many larger lakes were not on the maps. The result was a gross underestimation ofthe numbers ofacidified and sensitive lakes inMassachusetts (and, presumably, theeastern U.S.). The accompanying chartshows the severity of the error. Without theMassachusetts research effort, the nationmight have been lulled into thinking that theexisting and potential effects of aciddeposition on our surface waters were muchless severe than they really are.

The ARM Project has documented theexisting sensitivity of Massachusetts surfacewaters, but in order to determine whether atrend toward increasing acidification existsthere must either be good historicaldata or an ongoing monitoring effort. Sincethere is little or no historical information onmost streams and lakes (except reservoirs) inthe state, the ARM Project will monitor arepresentative group of 750 surfacewaters for ten years. Preliminaryinformation from this phase of the studyindicates that lakes and streams in the mostsensitive regions are continuing to

deteriorate. Evidence suggests that soils have beenaccumulating the sulfate in acid deposition,in effect, preventing any immediate effect ondownstream surface waters. The ability ofmany of Massachusetts soils to continue thissulfate accumulation appears to have beenexceeded in many areas of the state. Inwatersheds composed of these soils, sulfatein acid deposition will directly influence thechemistry of surface waters. The significance of sulfate accumulationin the soils is that even somewhat reducedlevels of sulfate in acid deposition will not

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stop the deterioration of surface waters. Improvement will occur only withsubstantial acid deposition reductions andafter considerable time. Despite theseobservations in Massachusetts, some studiesof other areas with different soils haveshown minimal cumulative effects of aciddeposition. For these, constant levels of aciddeposition will not worsen aquaticconditions and a reduction in emissions willalmost immediately improve their condition. The rate of acidification of lakes andstreams is obviously of crucial importance. While few historical data exist, those that doindicate an alarming rate of loss of ANC. Astudy of 34 drinking water reservoirs foundthat 18 of 34 showed significant declines inANC since the 1940s. Applying these rates

of loss of ANC to all Massachusetts surfacewaters suggests that, in 10 to 40 years, asmany as an additional 800 lakes and streamsin Massachusetts may become acidified. In25 to 100 years, a total of 1950 surfacewaters could be acidified. Verifying thisestimate requires continued monitoring of alarge sample of lakes and streams, andanalysis of the effects of watershedcharacteristics on the sensitivity of waterbodies to acid deposition.Quabbin Reservoir, the primary watersupply for metropolitan Boston, hasexperienced the loss of 75% of its ANC in40 years, making its current conditioncritical. Because of its importance to theCommonwealth, it has been the focus of agreat deal of MARRP acidification research.

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The reservoir has been a premier fisheriesresource visited annually by 52,000 anglerswho harvest around 63,000 pounds of laketrout, smallmouth bass and other fishspecies. Until recently, Quabbin providedexcellent fishing for rainbow trout. Becausethere is no suitable habitat for spawning inthe reservoir, the rainbow trout fishery wasmaintained by stocking 15,000 fish per year. Until 1979, 23% of the stocked fish, onaverage, were caught by anglers; by 1983,the catch dropped to less than 2%. Stockingwas discontinued in 1984. The drop wasattributed to periods of low ANC, increasingacidity, and decreasing calciumconcentration, all symptoms of aciddeposition. A decline in the harvest of legal size laketrout began in 1984. However, it waspreceded by a 50% drop in the numbers ofsublegal fish in 1979 which was stronglyrelated to relatively low pH conditions (pH <6.25) at the time the lake trout were stocked. Rainbow smelt were originally stocked inQuabbin Reservoir to provide forage for thegamefish. Their introduction was sosuccessful that in the 1960s the populationcreated a major headache for reservoirmanagers by plugging the intake screens forthe water distribution system. In recentyears, their population has declineddramatically and gamefish have shifted to aspecies of aquatic invertebrate as theirprimary forage. A MARRP study suggestedthe probable cause of the rapid decline of therainbow smelt. Visual examination of smeltspawning areas in the tributaries on thewestern arm of Quabbin revealed very highegg mortality, especially immediatelyfollowing a highly acidic rainstorm. Theseven tributaries on the western side ofQuabbin Reservoir no longer support smeltspawning. Six of the seven tributaries onthe eastern side support spawning but haveoccasional abnormal egg mortality,

depending on the acidity of rainfall eventsduring spawning. Of the original fourteentributaries supporting smelt spawning inQuabbin Reservoir, six have seen nospawning since 1980, two since 1982 andsix still support spawning runs butexperience periodically high egg mortality. MARRP research has further determinedwhy the western arm of Quabbin exhibitsmuch worse impact from acid depositionthan the eastern arm. The watershed of thewestern arm has a different topography thanthat of the eastern arm. While upland areasare relatively flat, the gradient increasessharply in the lower reaches of the streams.Thus, acid deposition falling on the flatuplands tends to remain in contact with thesoil and surface geology for a longer timethan in downstream areas. Samples ofgroundwater and stream water in the uplandsshow nearly complete neutralization of aciddeposition. However, the downstreamportion of the watershed provides most ofthe water for these tributaries, butdownstream acid deposition is incompletelyneutralized because the gradient does notpermit sufficient contact time for completeneutralization. More acidic runoff mobilizesaluminum from the soil and increases theconcentration in stream water. At the streammouths, pH and aluminum concentrationshave been shown to exceed the level fish cantolerate. This will especially adverselyaffect fish spawning. On the eastern arm,this topographic pattern is reversed and thechemistry at the stream mouths is morefavorable to smelt spawning. Wetlands play an important role inprotecting surface waters from acidification. In MARRP studies comparing two smalltributaries to a reservoir in the north-centralpart of the state, researchers found that awetland area on one stream removed 80% ofthe sulfate from the water supplied to itduring the peak of the growing season and10% on an annual basis. The amount of

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sulfate that a unit area of wetland couldremove was highly dependent on thehydrology of the wetland. Permanentlywetted wetlands with relatively largevolumes of water passing through them weremost effective in removing sulfur whilewetlands that periodically dried out storedsulfur when wet and released it when dry,creating pulses of sulfur to downstreamsurface waters. A MARRP study examined therelationship between changes in waterchemistry and the observed smelt eggmortality in Quabbin Reservoir tributaries. Fertilized smelt eggs exposed in a laboratoryto concentrations of acidity, aluminum, andcalcium typical of Quabbin's tributariesshowed reduced egg viability because ofincreased aluminum or acidity levels orboth. Further MARRP study with cagedadult rainbow trout and landlocked salmonhas demonstrated complete mortality at thestream mouth and even well out into thecoves of the reservoir on the west sideduring the spring. Other toxic metals are also mobilized byacid deposition. Recently, MARRP studiesof the Quabbin have shown that fish filletsfrom many large sports fish (e.g., lake troutlonger than 28 inches and smallmouth basslonger than 16 inches) exceed levels ofmercury acceptable for human consumptionby up to 3½ times . The mercury in Quabbinfish samples may come from severalsources, including acid deposition. Whatever the original source, aciddeposition seems to play an indirect role inits bioaccumulation in fish. Mercury occursin several forms, but methyl mercury is theform that dissolves most easily in water,bioaccumulates in organisms, and is mostdangerous. Current MARRP researchsuggests that microorganisms, namelysulfate-reducing bacteria in the bottomsediments, bear principal responsibility forthe methylation of mercury. Because

sulfate-reducing bacteria depend on sulfateas their energy source, increases in sulfateconcentration caused by acid deposition canenhance the potential for mercurymethylation. Bioaccumulation of toxicmetals in fish suggests that organismsfeeding on those fish will accumulate evenhigher levels of those metals. Human healthcan be protected by restricting the intake offish flesh, but the health of eagles, loons andother fish-eating birds and mammals cannotbe so easily protected. Years of effort torestore the eagle, our national symbol, toMassachusetts' own wilderness may beundermined by the insidious threat of acidrain. Other MARRP studies warn us thatconditions might well worsen. Aciddeposition loads the environment withsignificant quantities of sulfate. The soil iscapable of preventing the acid and sulfatefrom passing into streams and lakes byadsorbing sulfate and by exchanging otherions for hydrogen ions. This capacity islimited by the nature of the soil; some soilshave nearly infinite capacity for acidneutralization, but most in Massachusetts donot. Many soils in the Quabbin Reservoirwatershed, tested in a recent MARRP study,have lost their capacity to adsorb anyadditional sulfate. Samples of soil collectedfrom these same sites in the 1950s werefound not to be saturated with sulfate. When soils reach sulfate saturation, theeffects of acid deposition transfer to lakesand streams in the watershed. There are other indications that aciddeposition is affecting aquatic life. In thenorth-central part of the state, tributaries tothe Millers River have been surveyed severaltimes in the past 30 years, most recently aspart of MARRP. In the 1950s, eighteentributaries had essentially the same groups offish. By the early 1980s, two had lost all oftheir fish and eight others had lost all butone species. Only eight were unchanged. In

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those that had lost most or all fish, pH haddropped substantially; the unchangedtributaries had maintained historical pHlevels. With so many indications that the impactsof acid deposition are worsening,environmental agencies in the state areattempting to protect the most criticallysensitive aquatic resources against becomingacidified and losing all or most aquatic life. Since it is thought to be better to artificiallymanage the chemistry of surface waters thanto lose aquatic life, extensive research isbeing conducted on how lake and streamacidification might be artificially mitigatedwith a minimum of biological consequences. One of the tributaries in the Millers Riveris the focus of a current experiment byMARRP to mitigate stream acidification. After two years' documentation of theexisting chemical and biological state ofWhetstone Brook, a device to continuallydispense ground limestone into the streamwill be built at streamside. The limestone is,in effect, an environmental "Rolaids,"

providing additional acid neutralizingcapacity (ANC) to buffer the water againstthe addition of acids. The "doser" will be programmed to add sufficient ANC tomaintain pH within the tolerance range offish over the full range of stream flows. Restoration of fish and other aquaticorganisms to the nearly barren stream willbe monitored for several years to determinethe doser's effectiveness. This mitigationtechnique is probably too expensive tobecome a general remedy for streamacidification, but it might preserve someparticularly valuable resources untillong-term solutions are in place. Mitigation techniques for lakes are muchmore refined, but relatively little is knownabout the long term biological consequencesof liming lakes. Two on Cape Cod wereselected by MARRP for a controlledcomparison of the effects of liming onaquatic organisms, particularly plankton,aquatic plants and aquatic invertebrates. Changes in fish, aquatic plants and aquaticinvertebrates were subtle, but both

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phytoplankton and zooplankton showedmarked (but probably temporary) changesafter liming. Using data from the Acid RainMonitoring Project, fisheries managers havescreened all lakes in the state for theirmitigation potential. Relatively few couldbe considered viable candidates for liming. Of these, eight lakes, mostly on Cape Cod,have been limed, under the supervision ofthe state but at no cost, by a nonprofit

organization in a national study of theefficacy of lake liming. All those lakes

limed in 1986 responded as predicted, butthey will, nevertheless, be chemically andbiologically monitored for several years. Several other lakes are scheduled for limingin subsequent years.

Quabbin watershed

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IS ACID RAIN DAMAGING

OUR FORESTS AND FIELDS?

< In many European countries, as much as 50% of the forest is in a

mysterious decline. < Similar symptoms have been observed throughout the Appalachian

Mountain chain in the U.S. and on top of Mt. Greylock in Massachusetts. < Many potential causes have been explored, but acid deposition and other

air pollutants remain a prime suspect in the cause of this decline. < Sugar maples exhibit disturbing symptoms of decline with 75% of the

sugar maple lots surveyed reported in fair condition and 17% in poorcondition with serious dieback and death.

< Acid deposition or ozone may affect pollination of horticulturallyimportant species.

< Atmospheric pollution may supply useful nutrients to some plant species.

21

WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF ACID

DEPOSITION UPON FORESTS AND OTHER

TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS IN MASSACHUSETTS?

Soon after the potential effects of aciddeposition on water resources werediscovered, researchers began asking if therewere terrestrial effects, too. Preliminarylaboratory and greenhouse studies suggestedthat levels of deposition more extreme thanmost experienced by Massachusetts wererequired before noticeable damage occurs. The complacency about the problem whichresulted from these studies was jarred whenWest German and other European scientistsbegan to observe rapid increases in treemortality in the cherished Black Forest andother forests. Within only a few years,healthy trees sickened, developed yellowedleaves in their crowns, lost leaves, and died. Forests showing symptoms of declineincreased from a relatively insignificant levelto 8% in 1982, 34% in 1983, and 50% in1984. The decline struck conifers andhardwoods, planted and natural forests alike,of all ages, on both acid and basic soils.Forty-one percent of the spruce, 43% of thepine, 26% of the beech, 76% of the fir, and16% of the hardwoods were damaged. Neverbefore had a simultaneous decline of fourevergreen and six deciduous tree species beenseen. The decline was attributed to highlevels of acid deposition, ozone, and other airpollutants. In 1982 similar symptoms were observedat Camels Hump, Vermont, where previousscientific study had provided an excellentbaseline against which to evaluate the newdata. Total counts of trees showed that redspruce has declined by 83%, sugar maple by84%, and beech by 63% since the 1960s.Similar tree declines and death were thenobserved at other mountainous locationsthroughout the Appalachian mountain chain. Inexplicably, the symptoms seemed to affectdisproportionate numbers of mature trees,

rendering short term greenhouseexperiments ineffective in evaluating theircauses. Camel’s Hump, like most of NewEngland and the Black Forest, receivesheavy doses of acid deposition, ozone, andother pollutants. Researchers postulate several alternatecauses for this tree mortality: 1. Aging or succession 2. Drought 3. Biotic disease and insect epidemics 4. Repeated or severe winter damage 5. Pollution, particularly acid deposition, ozone or associated air pollutants 6. A combination of pollutant and natural stresses

Carefully reviewing the informationconcerning these alternative hypotheses,researchers have concluded that forestaging or succession can explain some of theexisting pattern of damage. Previousdiebacks with known causes may havecreated an unusual competitive situationjust now reaching its peak. Mortalityoccurs in relatively young but mature trees,not simply clusters of relatively oldspecimens, so natural aging is apparentlynot the only explanation for forest decline.Drought has been discounted in some areasas a likely cause since the differentlocations which experience the mostdamage appear in the moistest elevationzones, and damage seems to have begunprior to the onset of severe droughtconditions. Biotic agents have not beenthoroughly investigated, but to date, noobvious relationships exist between theforest decline and particular pathogens. Any pathogen involved would have todevastate multiple species. Pathogens areobserved in only a small percentage (1% -

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2%) of the dying trees. Anomalously coldwinters, cool springs, and dry summers inrecent years may be a factor, and tree ring andweather records document this trend. But airpollutants remain the primary suspects withacid rain strongly implicated because thegreatest tree damage has occurred at thecloud line, exactly where acids are mostconcentrated. The mechanism ormechanisms for observed damage isunknown, although several explanations havebeen suggested:

1. Increased soil toxicity may result fromthe deposition and mobilization of heavymetals, particularly aluminum, increasedsoil acidity,

2. leaching of nutrients from leaves and aconsequent reduction in photosynthesisproductivity, and

3. late season fertilization by gaseousnitrogen from acid deposition whichinhibits frost-hardening and destroy thecold-resistance of the mature plants.

4. ozone and other oxidants produce manyof the same forest effects; they couldwork separately or in consort with acid deposition.

Perhaps the most plausible explanation is"multiple stress syndrome," or, simply put,trees are dying from the combined effects ofsome or all of the various stresses. Airpollutants may be the "straw that broke thecamel's back." What is certain is that tree decline andmortality are widespread in areas of heavyacid precipitation and that mortality increaseswith elevation, reaching a maximum atapproximately the cloud line. Lead and otherheavy metals, whose sources almost certainlymust be atmospheric, have significantlyincreased in the soils and in the treesthemselves since the mid-1960s, and to alesser degree since the 1930s. The current red spruce deforestation beganin the late 1950s or mid-1960s. Growth in all

size classes of red spruce has declined sincethat time, but other species show a lessdistinct decline. The primary tree damageobserved by the mid-1980s had been inhigh elevation forests where environmentalstresses normally hover at a level barelytolerated by tree species, but a majorexamination of lowland forests had notbeen done. Reports of reduced tree ringgrowth, maple bush and white pine declinesand other symptoms were not uncommon,though. Since lowland and tree speciesother than red spruce are the mosteconomically significant in Massachusetts,MARRP focused on developing acomprehensive baseline data on the existingcondition of Massachusetts forests. In 1984and 1985, all of the state's forests wererecorded by aerial color infraredphotography. The surveys were timed tocatch foliage before autumn-induced colorchanges and leaf fall. The photographycould record very slight leaf colorvariations indicating variations in treehealth. Photograph interpreters at theUniversity of Massachusetts categorized3.3 million forested acres according tocrown discoloration, dead branches andtrees, and harvesting operation, with threeto four levels of severity in each category. 84,557 acres were found to be stressed--alarge area but only 2.56% of the state's totalforest. Of this stressed acreage, 71.28%was harvested, 19.27% had branch and treedieback, 9.45% had leaf discoloration. Most of the dieback and discoloration(46.89%) was found in three counties –Bristol, Plymouth and Worcester. On-site examinations of stressed areasdetermined that all but one area, 2000 acreson Mount Greylock, could be explained asthe result of normal insect damage ordisease. Coincidentally, Mt. Greylock isone of a few areas in Massachusetts with anelevation high enough to interceptsignificant acid deposition from clouds. Italso has one of the few stands of red spruce

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forest (42%; the remainder are maple, yellowbirch, paper birch and other species). On Mt.Greylock, spruce mortality of 15-36% wasfairly evenly distributed among size classes;for hardwoods, it ranged from 0-22%, beinghighest in older trees. High mortality for redspruce is not expected for the sizes of trees atthe site, but it is less than that observed atCamels Hump, Vermont and other highelevation spruce forests. Sixteen percent ofthe red spruce appear to have died within thelast 10 years, 46% dying prior to that. Treecores, depicting growth patterns for morethan 100 years, indicate that many treesapparently experienced a period of slowgrowth beginning in the 1940s, recovered inthe 1950s, and reverted to an even slowergrowth rate in the 1960s; many other treesdid not show such changes in growth rate. Preliminary research results suggest thateither drought and/or air pollution may be thecause of tree death on Mt. Greylock. It isclear that the high elevation forests in westernMassachusetts are experiencing the samesymptoms as other such forests along theAppalachian chain. Further MARRP research on the observeddecline of red spruce on Mt. Greylock isunderway as part of Massachusetts'cooperation in the National Forest ResponseProgram-National Vegetation Survey. Aspart of this effort, sophisticated air qualitymonitors have been established on Mt.Greylock, and an intensive study of therelation between symptoms and pathogens,insect pests, and parasites is underway. Other than the eastern white pine forests,lower elevation vegetation has not exhibitedobvious stress symptoms attributable solelyto air pollution/acid deposition, but subtlerchanges may be missed. The existence ofhistorical data on tree growth collected byUniversity of Massachusetts foresters atseveral Massachusetts sites provided theopportunity for comparison with present-dayforest growth at the same sites. Stands of redpine and white pine studied in 1955 and 1965

were revisited and growth measurementstaken. Approximately one-third of theresurveyed stands showed significantreductions in growth rate ranging from 20%to 50%, even though site conditions areconsidered good. Sites with the highestpercentage reduction have both a decline ingrowth rate and high tree mortality,suggesting the possibility that air pollutantsmay be eliminating the most sensitive trees. The health and vigor of sugar maplesthroughout New England is also inquestion. Working with the MassachusettsMaple Producers, MARRP researchershave made a preliminary survey of 24 sugarlots. Early results indicate that 8% of thesugar lots were in good condition, 75% infair condition with obvious dieback present,and 17% in poor condition with seriousdieback and death of trees. Researchers areworking with Cooperative Extensionpersonnel to develop a manual for growerswith suggestions for reducing dieback. In many respects, the current studies ofpotential forest impacts of acid depositionfocus on gross mortality or productivity, asdid the earlier studies of acid depositiondamage to agricultural crops. Aciddeposition may cause much subtler changesin plant health with equally disastrousenvironmental effects. For example, if aciddeposition and air pollution causes changesin the pollination process, either byreducing the viability of pollen or thesuccess of pollination, or if it providesselective pressure in favor a particular typeof pollen, years of careful horticulturaleffort may be negated. Varieties that havebeen bred for high productivity or forresistance to pests may yield reducedpollination success, thereby changing thelong-term population structure of forestswithout clear mortality. MARRP researchers are investigatingthe effects of acid deposition and ozone onthe pollination success of manyhorticulturally important trees and shrubs.

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American elm, Norway maple, Americanbeech, linden, red maple, sugar maple,Norway maple, red oak, white oak, green ash,white ash, black locust, flowering crab apple,forsythia, lilac and azalea have been testedfor sensitivity to ozone. Even within aspecies, tolerance varies. Of five lilaccultivars, tolerance to ozone varied by25-fold. Tests by MARRP researchers onthe effects of acid deposition on cornpollination indicate that, under normalconditions, there are no adverse effects. Butif certain conditions, such as drought, heavyrainfall or excessive temperatures occurduring pollination, acid deposition can reduceplant yields significantly. Other MARRP research has providedsome reassurance that herbicide applicationto agricultural crops does not increase theirsensitivity to acid deposition. Research on the effects of acid depositionand air pollution on forests and other plants isin its infancy, but a vital first step has beentaken by the Commonwealth in establishingbaseline data against which futuredevelopments can be compared.

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IS ACID RAIN DAMAGING OUR

STATUES AND STRUCTURES?

< Acid deposition can cause etching and erosion of culturally important monuments andbuildings.

< Massachusetts is richer than most states in such artistic and historic objects, with more than340 bronze statues and 80,000 historic properties. Bronze and marble statues, tombstones andmarble building facades are being destroyed. Masonry mortar, brick and limestoneconstruction materials are vulnerable.

< Annual replacement costs for bare galvanized steel destroyed by acid deposition or sulfurdioxide in Boston is estimated at over $33 million per year; damage to paint was estimated at$31 million per year.

< Costly protective coatings exist for metals but must be regularly maintained or even worsedisfigurement will occur. Protective materials do not exist for stone materials. Once stonestarts to deteriorate from acid etching, repeated freezing and thawing accelerate the process.

26

27

Acid rain streaks and corrodes bronze at the Harvard Museum of Comparative Zoology

28

WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF ACID DEPOSITION

UPON HUMAN STRUCTURAL AND CULTURAL

RESOURCES?

Much of the concern over the impacts ofacid deposition has focused on the naturalenvironment, but human and culturalresources are equally at risk. Aciddeposition and associated air pollutantsattack metals, building stone, paint and othermaterials and rapidly accelerate theweathering process. The primary culprits inthe damage to materials are sulfur dioxideand dry deposition. The resources at risk may be divided intotwo groups: irreplaceable culturallysignificant structures and more commonconstructions that, with expense, can berepaired or replaced. The former includestatues and monuments, sculpture, historicalbuildings, and other artifacts. For instance,in Massachusetts, there are at least 340outdoor bronze statues of historicalimportance registered with theMassachusetts Historical Commission. Bronze forms a black patina of coppersulfide or green patina of copper sulfate.Exposure to acid water (rain, mist, fog, ordew) dissolves both types of patina,particularly the green patina, causingirreparable etching, pitting, streaking andloss of detail on statues. To protect againstthis damage, statues must be cleaned andcoated. The cost for cleaning and coating asmall statue is $2000 and lasts only three tofive years. The statues must be waxed eachyear at an additional cost of $250. To protectonly the most important bronze statues inMassachusetts would cost 2-6 milliondollars over ten years. This total does nottake into account thousands of bronzeplaques, grave markers, and architecturalornaments whose protection is important butvirtually impossible.

Marble, limestone, sandstone, brick,mortar and cement used in statues andhistoric buildings, gravestones and ordinaryconstruction presents insurmountableproblems at present. The porous nature ofthese materials makes them more susceptibleto damage and prevents the use of currentlyavailable coatings. Acid deposition convertsthe material to softer, more readily solubleforms so that the next rain will literally washaway the fine detail. Mortar and masonryweaken and crumble. The carving onmarble gravestones becomes unreadable.Consequently, many cemeteries in thenortheast now forbid the use of marble forgravestones. Modern architecture is also vulnerable. The same processes which affect historicproperties deface and destroy moderncement, mortar, brick, stone and metal inbuildings, statues, bridges and public works. Many traditional building materials are nolonger being used by architects and buildersbecause they cannot withstand aciddeposition. For example, copper flashing isno longer used because it quickly corrodesand badly stains everything below it green. Galvanized steel in Massachusetts has beenshown to corrode three times as fast in areasthat exceed the ambient sulfur dioxide airquality standard. The annual replacementcosts for bare galvanized steel in the Bostonarea has been estimated at $219,300,000 peryear with 15.2% attributable to ambientsulfur dioxide concentrations. Paint affordssome protection, but air pollutants alsoshorten the life of paint coatings. Damage topaint finishes in the Boston area wasestimated at up to $31,300,000 per year.Latex paints appear to be more susceptible

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than oil-based paints. Many automobilemanufactures even caution against theeffects of air pollutants on car finishes intheir owner's manuals. A few enterprisingcar wash establishments encourage businessby pointing out that "when it rains, it stains,"although, in reality, dry deposition ofsulfates and other pollutants build up a filmawaiting only a small amount ofprecipitation or condensation to create a veryacidic film. By comparison, wet depositionmay be significantly less acidic and help towash off most acidic particles. To protect Massachusetts' cultural andmaterial resources against the effects of aciddeposition and related air pollutants,MARRP research has focused on threeareas: cataloging the resources at risk,testing existing restoration and mitigationtechniques, and determining the rate ofdamage under current conditions. Information on approximately 100,000cultural resources is being computerized sothat data on construction materials andpreservation history may be used to estimatethe relative risk from exposure to acidconditions and provide a basis forprioritizing mitigation measures. Studies arealso underway to determine the mostcost-effective means of protecting varioustypes of cultural resources. Key to determining the extent of thepotential damage from acid conditions areaccurate measurements of the erosion ratesof materials and coatings. Most of theresearch available at present is limited,somewhat outdated and unrelated to presentair pollution and acid deposition levels. Theshort-term need is to identify resources atrisk and test existing protective means. However, to understand the danger facingcultural and material resources, a betterknowledge of the rate of materialdeterioration is needed. And finally, newprotective techniques must be developedwhere none presently exist. Damage to materials appears to differ in a

substantive way from damage to the naturalenvironment in that local sources of airpollutants seem to play a larger role. Dryacid deposition appears to be the principalcause of materials damage. Both tend to bemore common in urban environments ornearer to sources of air pollution where mostcultural materials are likely to be found. In acarefully controlled study of militarytombstones, all made of the same materialand to exactly the same dimensions, theerosion rate of the marble was highest aturban sites with high rainfall, ten timeshigher than at rural sites with the sameamount of rainfall. For Massachusetts,recently enacted limits and eventualreductions of in-state sources of sulfurdioxide may yield the greatest benefit forurban cultural materials. We can conclude,

despite the imperfect state of our knowledge,that there is major damage to cultural andstructural materials. What is not certain iswhether the cause is primarily from local ordistant sources of pollutants.

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General Hooker statue at Massachusetts Statehouse

HOW DOES ACID RAIN AFFECT

MY HEALTH AND WELFARE?

< Acidic ("aggressive") drinking water can corrode the distribution pipes resulting in metal

levels in excess of drinking water standards. A survey of Massachusetts municipaldrinking waters found that 73% were highly aggressive and 25% were moderatelyaggressive.

< In a national survey of rural (non-public) water supplies, drinking water standards for leadwere exceeded by 9.6% of households in the northeast, 1.6% for cadmium, 2% forselenium, 16% for iron, 16.9 % for manganese and 22% for mercury.

< Increased sulfate from acid deposition may cause an increase in the conversion of mercuryinto its most toxic form.

< Increased atmospheric sulfate and nitrate pollution correlates with increasedhospitilization for cardiovascular and lung ailments.

< Regional haze resulting largely from sulfate particles in the air has caused a 50% declinein visibility in rural New England since the 1950s.

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“On a clear day, you can see forever...”

from the University of Massachusetts - Amherst library tower, but high sulfate haze days arecommon.

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WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS OF THE AIR POLLUTANTS

THAT CAUSE ACID DEPOSITION UPON PUBLIC HEALTH

THROUGH WATER AND AIR QUALITY?

Although most of the attention to theimpacts of acid deposition has focused onforests and waters, evidence is mounting thathuman health impacts may be equallypervasive and at least as complex. Theyinclude indirect effects of drinking acidifiedwaters containing leached toxic metals andthe direct health hazard of acidic airpollutants. MARRP concern about drinking waterfocuses on the relationship between wateracidification and the behavior of toxicmetals. Metals are found in the coal and oilthat produce the precursors of aciddeposition when burned. These metals areemitted to the atmosphere and depositedalong with acid deposition, but theirconcentration in precipitation is not greatenough to create immediate drinking waterproblems. However, once the acidifiedprecipitation is deposited on the landscape,another reaction takes place. Metals tend tobe most soluble in the pH range of 4.5 to6.0. As acidified precipitation flows throughsoils and contacts minerals, metals may beleached from the soils or sediments. Thedeath of fish in surface waters, more oftenthan not, results from high levels ofaluminum leached from the soils byacidified water and not the acidity per se. Aluminum, fortunately, is not as dangerousto humans, so we can easily tolerate levelsthat are toxic to fish. Other metals are not asabundant in the soils of our reservoirs andgroundwater supplies, and the resultingamounts in drinking water supplies usuallydo not exceed existing drinking waterstandards. There is another, easily overlooked,source of toxic metals -- the piping systemthat brings water to the faucets in our homes.

Acidified water flowing through deliverypipes corrodes pipe metal. Only twoconditions are needed to create a drinkingwater quality problem. The first is that thewater supply be somewhat acidic, althoughother factors such as the chlorine residualand dissolved oxygen content contribute tothe ability of water to corrode metal pipes.The second is for pipes to be made, at leastin small part, of metals that are toxic. InBoston, 85% of the service pipes from theroad to the house are lead, which is verytoxic when consumed, especially to children. Other old cities have similar highproportions of lead pipes. In newerhouseholds, the predominant piping materialis copper, but until recently the solderjoining pipe sections contained lead. Mostmunicipal "mains" are of iron orasbestos-cement. Both may be corroded byacidic water. All of these materials posedangers as poisons, and asbestos is a potentcarcinogen. A recent survey of 158 Massachusettsmunicipal drinking waters found that 73%were extremely "aggressive" or able tocorrode metals from piping systems and25% were moderately aggressive. Only 2%were not aggressive. In a limited survey ofmunicipal drinking water quality at the tap,where none of the raw water from reservoirsviolated drinking water standards,30% of the homes sampled exceeded themaximum safe contaminant level for leadand 50% exceeded the acceptable level forcopper and iron. Little is known the role ofacidified drinking water in dissolvingasbestos from asbestos-cement pipes. Excessive metal concentrations in drinkingwater are not confined to public watersupply systems. A major study of rural

33

drinking water quality indicates that, in thenortheast, maximum contaminant levels forlead are exceeded in 9.6% of ruralhouseholds; cadmium in 1.6%, selenium in2%, iron in 16%, manganese in 16.9% andmercury in 22%. Information specific toMassachusetts does not exist. Human ingestion of metals may occurthrough another pathway. Greater metalsolubility in surface waters increases thechance that they will "bioaccumulate" in thefood chain. The microscopic plants, oralgae, in surface waters take up ambientmetals from the water. Microscopic animalsconsuming thousands of the algaeaccumulate toxic materials that theycannot excrete. Small fish and insects andtheir consumers, larger fish, fish-eating birdsand mammals further concentrate toxiccompounds to levels that can be hazardousto humans who regularly consumefreshwater fish or game birds. A smallincrease in toxic metal concentration in thewater from acidification in the watershedmay multiply manyfold in the body tissue ofthe final consumers of aquatic life. Beyondhaving obvious implications for humanhealth, the process of metal bioaccumulationmay endanger efforts to restore the baldeagle and loon to Massachusetts. Researchhas only just begun to document thesituation. Another effect of acid deposition mayexacerbate the bioaccumulation of toxicmetals. Acid deposition greatly enhancesthe concentration of sulfate in surfacewaters. The Acid Rain Monitoring Projecthas shown that sulfate dominates thechemistry in surface waters below pH 6.0(25% of Massachusetts' surface waters). Sulfate is reduced to elemental sulfur andother inert compounds by sulfate reducingbacteria. Preliminary findings from MARRP research suggests thatsulfate-reducing bacteria are the principalgroup that transforms metals such asmercury and arsenic, which are present in

lake and reservoir sediments, to methylatedforms of mercury and arsenic, the most toxicforms to humans and the most likely tobioaccumulate. Thus, acid deposition maynot only increase the quantity of metals insurface waters, but sulfate from aciddeposition may enhance the conversion ofthese metals to their most toxic form. The direct human health effects of theprecursors to acid rain are better known butalso more complicated. Sulfur dioxide andnitrogen oxides (as gases) and sulfates,metals, organic compounds, nitrates andnitrites (as particulate matter) can havedeleterious effects on the human respiratorysystem. Certain groups of people, such asasthmatics, allergy sufferers, the elderly,children, smokers, habitual mouth breathers,and individuals with chronic respiratory orcardiovascular disease, are at much greaterrisk than the rest of the population. Enforcement of current air qualitystandards is intended to prevent healthimpacts for most of the population, althoughsome evidence suggests that high risk groupsmay not be adequately protected. Thepresent system of averaging levels of sulfurdioxide over 24 hours may permit short-termhigher levels that have a deleterious effect. Further, sulfates are regulated only as part oftotal respirable particulates. Becausesulfates tend to be very fine particles (lessthan 2.5 microns in diameter) that can beinhaled deep into the lungs, theircontribution by weight maysignificantly underestimate their impact onhuman health. Much less is known aboutnitrogen oxides but some research suggests alink with the frequency of acute respiratoryinfections and rate of aging of the lung. Thecombination of air pollutants appears tohave a greater impact thanexpected from the sum of individualpollutant effects. Existing indices of air quality, which arebased almost exclusively on ambient ozonelevels, do not adequately describe the danger

34

of other air quality constituents, particularlynitrogen dioxide and fine particles of nitratesand sulfates. MARRP researchers aredeveloping new, more precise measures ofair quality. Hospital admissions forrespiratory and cardiovascular diseases werefound to be significantly related to increasesin the levels of atmospheric pollutants. While no relationship was found betweenhospital admissions and ozone levels,increases in nitrogen dioxide and fineparticulates of sulfate and nitrate (which arenot now part of the National Ambient AirQuality Standard) significantly affectedhospital admissions. This newMassachusetts "Visibility/Public HealthPollutant Standards" Index is undergoingfurther refinement before implementation. Fine particles of sulfate impact humanwelfare in another, somewhat surprising,way. These particles are the principal

component of New England's "regionalhaze." Rural areas of Vermont and Maineshow a nearly 50% decrease since the 1950sin the number of summer days clear enoughto see 35 miles or more. High sulfate daystypically occur along with high ozone dayswhen air masses from the west andsouthwest pass over New England. Measurements of visibility and sulfurparticles are being made at MARRPmonitoring sites in the rural QuabbinReservoir watershed and Mt. GreylockReservation to further pinpoint the relativecontributions of long-range versus localsources. While most of acid deposition's impactsare subtle and invisible, reduced visibility isapparent, and costly, to us all. A 13%reduction in haze has been estimated to yieldbenefits of $126 million per year, primarilyfor the region's tourism industry.

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IS ACID RAIN GETTING WORSE?

< Long-term data are rare, but what we have suggests thatacid precipitation worsened steeply between 1900 and theearly 1980s, followed by a recent slight decline.

< Water bodies that become acidified prior to reduceddeposition may not be recoverable.

< Sulfur dioxide emissions have increased from 4 milliontons in 1900 to 26 million tons in the 1980s.

< Nitrogen emissions have increased 7-fold, primarilybecause of increased motor vehicle use.

< In the northeast, precipitation appears to be more acidicnow than in the 50s and early 60s, but there is no cleartrend since 1964.

< Preliminary analysis of Massachusetts reservoirs indicatessignificant loss of acid neutralizing capacity over the past40 years.

< A decline in fish populations in Massachusetts is hard todefine because early data are scarce, but what there issuggests that surface water pH has worsened and that fishsurvival has correspondingly declined.

36

37

WHAT TRENDS CAN WE DETECT

THAT RESULT FROM ACID DEPOSITION? Evaluating the past and future trends ofacid deposition is, perhaps, the mostdifficult task for researchers; yet thedevelopment of sound, cost-effective policyhinges on the evaluation of trends. Highquality baseline data from years past arerare, largely because measurementtechniques have become more sophisticatedwithin recent years. For example, the pHmeter itself is a relatively recent invention,and improvements in the sensitivity of pHprobes necessary for acid depositionresearch have been developed only withinthe last decade. Nevertheless, a great deal ofprogress has been made in the evaluation oftrends. Trends in the emissions of sulfur andnitrogen are easiest to determine. Over thepast 100 years, sulfur dioxide emissionshave risen steeply in the eastern UnitedStates from approximately 4 million tons peryear in 1900 to 26 million tons per year inthe early 1980s. In the last several years,there has been a very slight decline. Regionally, the patterns are quite different.New England and New York exhibit annualfluctuations in sulfur dioxide emissions, butcurrent levels have been reduced to levelstypical of those in the early 1900s. Slightincreases in electric utility emissions havebeen countered by declines from othersources. In the Midwest, emissions haveincreased sharply since the mid-1940s andearly 1950s, doubling since the turn of thecentury. This increase is almost exclusivelyfrom electric utilities. The Southeast hasshown a similar increase beginning in thelate 1950s. Nitrogen emissions have increased about7-fold since the late 1800s, leveling off inthe 1970s. Just as for sulfur, the sharpestincrease occurred in the midwestern andsoutheastern states. This can be attributed

to three sources -- highway vehicles,industry, and electric utilities. In NewEngland, most of the modest increase is dueto growth in the number of highwayvehicles. Current nitrogen oxide emissionsare 21 million tons/year nationwide. The historical changes in acid depositionare more difficult to evaluate because thecurrent network of monitoring sites was notestablished until 1978. Using limited datafrom a few isolated sites in place before thattime, estimates have been extended back tothe 1950s. From the existing data, it hasbeen concluded that current levels of sulfateand nitrate in precipitation are 5 times higherthan remote areas of the world andpresumably that describes the extent of thetotal increase above natural levels. Precipitation is currently more acidic in thenortheast than it was in the 1950s or 1960s,although there is still debate on the causes ofthe increase. However, since 1964, thereappears to be no trend for precipitationacidity in New England, with a decline insulfate of 2% per year and an increase innitrate until about 1971, after which itlevelled off. One might conclude thatchanges in acid precipitation occurred priorto the mid-1960s. It is not possible todetermine if there have been changes in drydeposition, because only within the last fewyears have techniques been devised toaccurately measure this importantcomponent of total acid deposition. Validation of these techniques is currentlynearing completion. Determination of historical changes in theeffects of acid deposition on natural andman-made environments is even moredifficult. Historical data for surface waterchemistry are somewhat more available thandata on deposition chemistry, but changes inanalytical methods and the existence of

38

many factors which might complicate theinterpretation of symptoms make it difficultto draw conclusions that are irrefutable bythe staunchest critics. Historical data forother environments are typically as scarce asfor deposition chemistry. For surface waters, several approacheshave been used to evaluate historicalchanges. One approach compares historicalinputs of sulfate from wet deposition againsthistorical output of sulfate from lakes. Lakes throughout the eastern U.S. exhibit astrong relationship between the two, albeitwith significant regional variation. Sulfatelevels are increasing, except in the Northeastwhere they remain constant, mimickingchanges in emissions in the regions. Regional differences are thought to result, inpart, from differences in dry deposition. A second approach compares sulfatelevels in bench-mark streams of the U.S.Geological Survey. Results are consistentwith the findings for lakes and furtherindicate that changes in alkalinity do resultfrom acid deposition in watersheds withthin, acid soils typical of Massachusetts. A third approach examines historical andpresent levels of pH and alkalinity for lakesin New York, Wisconsin and NewHampshire. Uncertainty regarding theappropriate compensation for differences inmethods affects the conclusions that may bedrawn. With this method, Adirondack lakesappear to have lost alkalinity, NewHampshire lakes appear to be unchanged,and many Wisconsin lakes appear to havegained alkalinity over the past 50 years. Acommon but serious flaw with this andsimilar analyses is the failure to adjust fordifferences in sampling date. TheMassachusetts Acid Rain Monitoring Projectof ;MARRP; has documented the seasonalbehavior of pH and alkalinity in lakes andstreams. These seasonal differences aresufficiently large that real changes in bothparameters over the long-term could bemasked. If, for example, the average

seasonal pattern of alkalinity revealed by theAcid Rain Monitoring Project is assumed tooccur each year, and if a long-term trend fordeclining alkalinity is superimposed over a25 year record, the pattern shown in Figure 1results. Typically, such a complete record isnot available. Instead, if for example anearlier survey collected data in April and alater survey collected data in May, trendanalysis would incorrectly suggest thatalkalinity had increased. The same would betrue if sampling occurred in July and Augustonly, as shown by the upward slope of thetwo lines connecting the two surveys. Thereis, furthermore, no guarantee that theseasonal pattern will remain constant since itis affected by precipitation patterns,temperature, and a number of otherparameters. Consequently, it is difficult, ifnot dangerous, to determine trends based ononly a few points in time, no matter howcarefully one adjusts for differences inmeasurement techniques. For aquatic systems, many different linesof evidence suggest that historical changeshave occurred, but incontrovertible proof isnot possible given the scarcity of data fromearlier surveys. For this reason, theMassachusetts Acid Rain Monitoring Projecthas been designed to yield this proof. It hasdocumented the seasonal pattern of waterchemistry in surface waters and begun along-term sampling effort to collectquarterly water chemistry for 10 years. In Massachusetts, an effort has been madeto evaluate long-term trends in drinkingwater reservoirs for which extensive data areavailable. Corrections have been made fordifferences in methodology, but nocorrections have been made for the time ofsampling or for changes in other factors thatmay influence reservoir chemistry. Thispreliminary analysis has shown that themajority of Massachusetts reservoirs arelosing alkalinity. A more detailed MARRPanalysis of weekly samples from QuabbinReservoir also indicates an overall decline of

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alkalinity but suggests that periods ofdrought and flood play a confounding role inthe response of the reservoir. A final approach toward evaluatingchemical changes associated withacidification uses algae as indicators ofchanges in pH. There is strong evidence ofrecent acidification of lakes in theAdirondacks and New England, with thegreatest pH changes in the Adirondacks. These changes began after 1900, butaccelerated after 1940.

Fewer data sets are available to determineif there have been historical losses of fishpopulations. Analysis of evidence fromAdirondacks lakes, Nova Scotia rivers, andMassachusetts streams clearly demonstratesdeclines in acid-sensitive fish species overthe past 20 to 40 years. Supporting analysesof a large number of lakes indicates that pHis highly correlated with fish survival. Generally, waters with a summer pH lessthan 5.0 to 5.5 support few or no fishpopulations. Declines in Quabbin Reservoirfish populations appeared to have begunwhen pH dropped below 6.5.

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41

HOW CAN WE SAVE OUR ENVIRONMENT?

< The impacts of acid rain can be reduced by controlling emissions of SO2 and NOx.< Mitigation techniques applied to specific resources can forestall damages but cannot

permanently cure them.< Lakes and ponds can be limed to protect them against further damage, but only 16% of the

2900 lakes and ponds can be economically limed.< Streams are much more difficult to treat with lime, although experiments are underway to

find techniques useful under some circumstances.< Liming has potentially harmful effects on lake and stream ecology, so it must be studied

and done with caution.< Applications of lime to forests, croplands and other terrestrial systems have had limited

success to date.< Temporary protective coatings may be applied to some vulnerable metals such as statuary,

but no effective treatment has been found for stones, mortar, cement, and brick surfaces. Frequent cleaning helps but may itself be destructive.

< Improved atmospheric monitoring can provide better warnings to people whose health isvulnerable to sulfates and nitrates.

< Emission reduction requires interregional and international cooperation.< Innovative sharing of cleanup costs can reduce financial hardships.< The United States is the only major emitting nation which has not agreed to major SO2

reductions. This handicaps international efforts which are, nevertheless, expected to havemajor positive effects outside of North America.

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WHAT ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIOLOGICAL,

AND POLITICAL STRATEGIES ARE AVAILABLE

TO MITIGATE ACID DEPOSITION EFFECTS

IN MASSACHUSETTS?

Mitigation can mean reducing the impactof acid deposition by treating the cause or bytreating the symptom. Both have their place. Neither represents a simple solution. Treating the symptom has been called a"band-aid" approach, because it forestallsfurther damage for a while but does nothingto eliminate the problem. Knowledge ofappropriate mitigation techniques varies fordifferent parts of the environment; for someenvironments, there are no availableshort-term mitigative strategies. Many people argue that symptomatic mitigation isa poor choice because it leads to a falsesense of security that reduces the perceivedneed to deal with root causes and createsongoing costs that rapidly exceed the cost ofcausal solutions. Few see symptomaticmitigation as the end solution, but manyargue that it can be a useful stop gapmeasure during the long process ofimplementing a reduction in acid deposition. In this view, mitigation can protect valuableresources during the interval when long-termsolutions are developed and implemented.After that, it provides the necessary tools torestore damaged resources. Techniques for symptomatic mitigation ofaquatic systems are best developed. Facedwith thousands of acidifying lakes andrivers, Sweden has led the way indeveloping mitigation technologies. Theprinciple of aquatic system mitigation issimple. Since lakes and streams becomeacidified when they lose acid neutralizingcapacity, ANC can be added in the form oflimestone, just as a farmer limes his fields tocounter acid soils. The limestone may beapplied to a lake as dry lime or a slurry ofwater and lime using a boat, helicopter or

plane, or even a truck on frozen lakes. While lake liming has proven to be asimple, relatively inexpensive operation,many kinds of lakes are not appropriatecandidates for liming. Lake characteristicsthat reduce the effectiveness of liminginclude: relatively rapid exchange of lakewater with stream inputs; muck bottoms;high concentrations of heavy metals in thewatershed or sediments; unique biota; andbiota sensitive to rapid fluctuations in pH. A MARRP review of lake characteristics inMassachusetts indicates that only 16% ofMassachusetts lakes are appropriatecandidates for effective liming. For those lakes that meet the criteria,MARRP has begun a limited limingprogram to protect fish populations againstacidification or to restore lost populations. Until 1985, 33 lakes had been limed, mostlyon Cape Cod. In 1986, an additional 9 werelimed, and more are planned in the next fewyears. As knowledge of the short-termchemical changes of limed lakes hasimproved in recent years, focus has shiftedto long-term and biological effects of liming.Two studies are determining such effects. The first is evaluating the impacts of limingon the various kinds of organisms fromalgae to fish. The second is more concernedwith fine-tuning the techniques of liming asa management tool to protect a large numberof lakes, and it will continue to monitorchanges in fish populations and waterchemistry over at least five years. Stream mitigation is more complicatedthan lake mitigation simply because a singleapplication of limestone will have a quicklypassing effect as the limestone is carrieddownstream. The stream must be dosed

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continually and the amount of limestoneadjusted frequently to compensate for higherflow during spring floods, brief rainstormsor low flows during dry seasons. If toomuch limestone is applied, not all can bedissolved, and it will coat the streambottom, suffocating bottom organisms. Iftoo little is applied, acids will beincompletely neutralized. Equipmentbreakdowns of only a few hours in durationcan totally obliterate aquatic biota. Exactlyhow to match the dose of lime with theacidity and flow of streams whenconstrained by limited access to streams andthe need for a fail-safe system is the subjectof another MARRP research effort inMassachusetts. If a technique is to becomeuseful for streams in general, it must berelatively inexpensive and trouble-free. Several systems for stream dosing have beendeveloped, mostly in Sweden, but these areoften for large rivers of commercialimportance where cost is easy to justify. Even if a low cost technique appropriate forMassachusetts' small streams can bedeveloped, only relatively short stretches ofstreams can be protected because dosagemust be carefully balanced to maximizedownstream effect without blanketing thestream bottom near the doser withundissolved lime. MARRP research is evaluating thebiological impacts of stream as well as lakeliming. Stream liming may produceextremely subtle effects. For example, moststream organisms filter and process foodsuspended in the water or scrape the surfacefilm off the stream bottom material fornutrition. Fine, undissolved limestoneparticles, added to neutralize stream acidity,will be ingested by stream organisms butprovide them with no nutrition. Streaminvertebrates may not grow as fast withresultant effect on growth of fish which feedon stream invertebrates. Also, remobilization of toxic metals may occur aspH varies, only to be bioaccumulated in the

food chain. Current MARRP research inMassachusetts will help determine whetherliming is a viable approach to forestallingacidification and restoring lakes andstreams. Development of mitigationtechniques for terrestrial environments ishampered by our limited knowledge of thecauses of forest damage. Since lake andstream acidification is the result ofacidification processes in the surroundingwatershed, experiments with wholewatershed liming have been attempted(primarily in Sweden). Results have beenmuch less successful than with directapplication to the water. But on a limitedscale, liming portions of a watershed mayhave utility. MARRP researchers areinvestigating the utility of converting smallareas of forest in reservoir watersheds tograssy fields. By cutting the trees, wateryield is increased -- an important watersupply consideration -- but the tree leavesthat intercept dry deposition are alsoeliminated. thereby reducing acid depositioninputs. The grassy fields can be limed justas a farmer might lime his pasturelands,further helping to neutralize acid depositioninputs. The effects of this managementpractice are being evaluated by MARRPresearchers in small areas of a tributary toQuabbin Reservoir. If acid deposition causes damage toterrestrial systems through soil-rootinteractions, mitigative liming of watershedsto reduce terrestrial damage may havepromise, but many technical difficulties inapplication must be overcome to avoidsuffocating the forest floor under lime dust.Specific suggestions are studied by MARRPresearchers for management of sugar maplestands. Development of generalsymptomatic mitigation strategies for forestsmust await further research on causes offorest decline. Cultural and materialmitigation largely involves the application ofcoatings, replacement or cleaning ofmaterials. For bronzes and other metals,

44

such coatings do exist. However, once acoating is applied, it must be rigorouslymaintained or the difference between thecorrosion in areas where the coating is wornaway and those areas where it has not willworsen the aesthetic disfigurement of theobject. For stone material, adequatecoatings are not yet available. MARRP iscurrently investigating the cost of applyingexisting coatings and participating in thedevelopment of new protective measures. Mitigation of human health impacts hasfocused on treating drinking water andproviding warnings when environmentalquality is inadequate. For both, extensivemonitoring is the key to spotting potentialhazards before they affect human health. MARRP has enabled the creation ofappropriate monitoring programs and thesehave been supplemented by increased effortsby other state and local agencies. With what we know about aciddeposition, ultimate elimination of aciddeposition impacts must come fromreducing emissions of sulfur dioxide andnitrogen oxide, although other air pollutantsmay have to be added to this list in thefuture. Action to reduce these air pollutantsmay occur at the national, state or individuallevel. At the national level, action on acid rainhas followed a curious path. Theinternational scientific community becameaware of "acid rain" in 1967 as a result ofSvente Odén's research on Swedish lakes. By 1980, the United States and Canada hadsigned a Memorandum of Intent establishinga bilateral research plan to investigatetransboundary air pollution and pledged towork toward a bilateral accord ontransboundary air pollution. In the finaldays of the Carter Administration, the EPAadministrator, writing to the Secretary ofState, ruled that all necessary conditionswere met for action under Section 115 of theClean Air Act, which empowers the EPAadministrator to order states to upgrade

anti-pollution laws if emissions threaten thepublic welfare of a foreign country. Sevendays later, President Reagan took office anda new EPA administrator was named. Sincethen, the Reagan administration has claimedthat further research is needed before anexpensive emission reduction program isenacted. The sudden change in policyreflects the nature of the problems that eitheraction or inaction on acid rain poses for thecountry. At the bottom of the controversy is thefact that the emissions that cause acid rainare created in one region which is heavilydependent economically and socially onso-called "smokestack" industries while theregion receiving acid deposition is heavilydependent economically and socially onenvironmentally sensitive factors such astourism and forest products. Both regionsperceive the potential for substantialeconomic and social displacement -- i.e.,closed industries, high unemployment, andlong-term changes in opportunities for futuregenerations. With the risks high on bothsides, even the smallest scientific uncertaintymakes the risks seem unacceptable. InCongress, the issue has divided alongregional lines with representatives of bothpolitical parties from Midwestern industrialareas resisting acid rain control andcongressmen from the northeast advocatingcontrol. The task for researchers has been to try toresolve as many of the scientific questions aspossible so that a political consensus can bereached. That task includes evaluating longrange transport and subsequent effects onaquatic, terrestrial and cultural systems. Itincludes evaluating the social, economic andpolitical costs and benefits of various legislative options. And it includes fullexploration of cost-effective ways tominimize emissions from burning fossilfuels. In retrospect, the general concern ofscientists in 1981 has been borne out byadditional research. But it is also true that

45

the intervening years have permitted greatrefinement in our knowledge of emissions,impacts, and how best to design a programthat will best serve the environment over thelong term. At the national level, there is no lesseningof the controversy, but there has been amajor shift in its emphasis. In 1981, thecrux of the argument was "Does acid rainexist?" Now there is no doubt of that factand few argue that there are serious impactson aquatic systems, both known andpotential impacts on terrestrial and culturalsystems, and serious human healthconsiderations. What remains controversialis whether the costs of emission control arejustified by these impacts. Research has also revealed that acid rainis a problem for nearly all industrializedcountries. Within recent years, most ofthese countries have begun emissionreduction programs. Even the mostrecalcitrant European countries acted swiftlyonce the danger became known. Most of theremaining European and North Americancountries that have not taken action are alsonot major pollution emitters. The UnitedStates is a prominent holdout against

emission reductions on a national scale, eventhough the U.S. recently insisted onemission control on Mexican smelters closeto the U.S. border to prevent acidification ofwestern lakes. Ironically, the United States-- the primary source of acid depositiondamaging Canadian resources -- hassteadfastly refused to reduce emissions. Asa result, tensions between the U.S. and ourclosest ally, Canada, have seldom beenhigher. Not content with the lack of nationalaction, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, andMinnesota, along with the eastern Canadianprovinces, have enacted their own emissioncontrol programs. But since these states are,in general, not the largest emitters, theprograms are more symbolic than effectiveat reducing the national acid rain problem. Most New England states have reducedemissions dramatically since 1970. InMassachusetts, emissions have already beenreduced by 41% since 1970. Recentlegislation "caps" current emissions while astatewide plan for further reduction isdeveloped. By 1995, emissions will furtherbe reduced by 20% - 30% .

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Countries Agreeing to Reduce SO2 Countries Not Agreeing

Country Promised reduction Countryof SO2 from 1980

Austria 50% by 1995 Greece

Belgium 50% by 1995 Vatican

Bulgaria 30% by 1993 Iceland

Byelorus SSR 30% by 1993 Ireland

Canada 50% by 1994 Poland

Czechoslovakia 30% by 1993 Portugal

Denmark 50% by 1995 Romania

Federal Republic of Germany 60% by 1993 San Marino

Finland 50% by 1995 Spain

France 50% by 1990 Turkey

German Democratic Republic 30% by 1993 U.S.A.

Hungary 30% by 1993 Yugoslavia

Italy 30% by 1993

Liechtenstein 30% by 1993

Luxembourg 30% by 1993

Netherlands 40% by 1995

Norway 50% by 1994

Sweden 65% by 1995

Switzerland 30% by 1995

Ukran.SSR. 30% by 1993

United Kingdom 14% by 1996

USSR 30% by 1993

From AMBIO Vol 15, No. 1

Northeastern states have also resorted tolawsuits (totaling five at present) against theEPA in order to control acid rain. In one,the New England states, New York, NewJersey and Ontario sued to force EPA toenforce the transboundary section of theClean Air Act. So far unsuccessful, a finalappeal to the Supreme Court is pending. Asecond would require EPA to regulate airpollution crossing state boundaries. A thirdcharges that EPA has not limited the use oftall stacks to evade the Clean Air Actrequirements. A fourth would force revisionof the Clean Air Act to include national airquality standards to deal with aciddeposition. A fifth charges EPA with failureto carry out provisions of the Clean Air Actthat would require reduction of pollutionthat affect visibility in Federal parks andwilderness areas. In the discussion of acidrain, air pollution and the emitters, we often

overlook the real sources of the emissions. Nearly all of the man-made emissions thatcause acid rain result from electricitygeneration or transportation. All of us useelectricity and purchase goods transported toour area and many of us drive automobiles. Most of the New England states that havereduced emissions so dramatically in recentyears are major importers of electricity fromthe Midwest. Once again, we discover, asPogo said, that the enemy is us! But thismeans we are probably getting closer tofinding an equitable national solution to acidrain. It also means that the individual is nothelpless in this controversy. The individualcan conserve energy, support individualstates' efforts to reduce emissions, andsupport a national emission reductionprogram.

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IS THE JOB DONE?

< Additional knowledge is needed to determine the effects of dry and condensationdeposition.

< Although research on human health suggests the problem is enormous, more researchis needed to determine cause and effects as well as which populations are at risk .

< Effects on lake and stream ecology are well documented; more information is neededon short- and long-term trends.

< Effects on plants and land animals need to be better understood, especially concerningthe connection to ozone and other air pollutants.

< More research is needed on the economic repercussions of emission control toguarantee maximum economic and environmental benefits.

< Research must continue to seek innovative solutions and to monitor both acid rainimpacts and the course of recovery.

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THE CONTINUING NEED FOR RESEARCH

Despite the substantial effort expended over the past decade, the acid rain issue is not resolvedat the national or international level. What still needs to be done? Don't we have enoughinformation? And why does Massachusetts need to spend its tax dollars when acid rain is anational problem? Clearly, the available information is not sufficiently overwhelming to convince all the keydecision makers or powerful interests. Interestingly, polls show that the majority of peoplebelieve acid rain is a serious environmental problem and are willing to pay for reducingemissions, but most are probably uncertain and confused by conflicting reports. Entrenchedinterest groups are fearful of the economic consequences of acid rain control at a time when suchfears are certainly understandable. In 1987, lobbyists against acid rain control spent more moneythan any other lobbying group. Two things are obvious. Effective arguments cannot be made in the absence of factualinformation, and the will of the people will not be served if the people are ill-informed. Obtaining factual information is the task of researchers, and the goal of the Massachusetts AcidRain Research Program (MARRP) is to develop a sound factual basis for future action. Since1983, this program has provided considerable crucial information for the ongoing discussion. Public awareness has increased manyfold. But much still needs to be done. The answers are notall in hand. The direct effects on aquatic systems are reasonably well known, but terrestrial andhuman health aspects are less understood. The ripple effect of acid deposition through naturaland cultural systems is poorly understood. This is especially true for the economic repercussionsof emission reduction where some say that the cost would be astronomical and others argue thatthe economy would benefit from the increase in service jobs. As knowledge about the causesand consequences of acid rain has improved, it has become clear that acid rain, or the depositionof compounds of sulfur and nitrogen, is only part of the broader issue of air pollution. Researchon forest effects has made it quite clear that acid deposition may play a secondary role to that ofoxidizing air pollutants such as ozone. Still other pollutants may serve as catalysts for thetransformation of acid rain precursors. Despite the existence of uncertainty regarding some potential effects of acid deposition, mostresearchers feel that more than sufficient information exists to define the threat and that the risksmore than justify controlling emissions based on existing knowledge. The challenge for policymakers is to design environmental regulations that will restore and protect the environment,minimize economic costs and dislocations and still retain sufficient flexibility to be adjusted asadditional information becomes available. The pervasiveness of acid deposition presents an unusual challenge to science. Normally,science develops predictions on the basis of controlled experiments. For example, understandinghow the environment will respond to emission reduction proceeds through several logical steps. First, information is gathered on the functioning of the affected systems. Second, ourunderstanding is simplified into working models or hypotheses. At present, several such modelshave been proposed. Finally, a test is made of competing hypotheses under controlledconditions. Because acid deposition is so widespread and affects systems on such a large scale,appropriate controlled experiments are difficult to set up. Limited experimental manipulationhas helped to narrow the field of possible results of emission reduction. But until emissionreduction occurs, fine-tuning the restoration process is not possible. Thus the future course of research must accomplish two objectives: (1) continue to evaluate

49

the impacts of acid deposition and propose equitable solutions, and, (2) assuming eventualemission reduction, monitor and study the course of recovery so that regulatory policy can beadjusted to optimize environmental protection and minimize societal costs. As a resultof MARRP, the Commonwealth is well situated to fully participate in seeking the best solutionto this major environmental crisis

SUGGESTED READINGS

The Acidic Deposition Phenomenon and its Effects: Critical Assessment Review Papers. Volume I - Atmospheric Sciences, Volume II - Effects Sciences. U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, Report No. EPA-600/8-83-016. 1983.

Acid Rain and Related Air Pollutant Damage: A National and International Call for Action. Massachusetts Department of Environmental Quality Engineering. 1984.

Massachusetts Wildlife, May-June 1985. Entire issue devoted to describing acid depositionimpacts in Massachusetts.

The Massachusetts Acid Rain Monitoring Project, A.R.M.: Phase I. Massachusetts WaterResources Research Center. Publ. No. 147.

Recent and Ongoing Acid Deposition Research in New England -1986. Massachusetts WaterResources Research Center. Special Report.

Acidification and Fish Harvest Trends at Quabbin Reservoir. Massachusetts Division ofFisheries & Wildlife. 1987.

Acid Deposition Long-Term Trends. National Academy of Sciences. 1986.

Northeast Damage Report of the Long Range Transport and Deposition of Air Pollutants. Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management and New England Interstate WaterPollution Control Commission. 1981.