Accession and Promotion Planning Overview

CAPT Julie McNallyMedical Department & Nurse Corps OCM

14 Nov 2012

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Fleet Requirements

OCMInput USNA

NROTC STA21OCS

N10Planners

N13Accession

Plan

N1

Other Sources

Demand Signal End Strength & Fiscal Controls

Community Factors

Approves Plan

Projected Yield to Planner

MMR, IST, Recalls, Directs

Source Factors for Accession Planning: • “Locked”: USNA, NROTC, STA-21, MM, OCS SWO (N)

•“Flexible”: OCS and Direct Accessions (DA)

OPA

Officer Accession Planning

The Balancing of Accessions:How we get there…

• Requirements– What do we need?

• Each OCM conducts in depth analysis and presents a defense for accession need

• Influences– CNP Direction– Community sponsor input– What is the trade space? (LOCKED VICE FLEXIBLE)

• Stated need applied against guidance & fiscal constraints– Start with a number (4150) and work backwards by determining

what areas can be affected • not “locked” or constrained by CNP policy, OCS contracts, multi-year training pipelines

– Multiple Courses of Action are developed and briefed

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“Locked” Accession Sources

• USNA output programmed 4 years prior. • NROTC similar, but with some flexibility with College

Program and 2 year scholarships. • STA-21 programmed 3 years in advance. • Thus, OCS (DA & BDCP) is used as a “throttle” to

cover shortfalls in other programs. One of the few Direct Accession sources that can be cut within the FY.

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Accession Source Constraints

•Roughly 87% of the FY13 accession quotas are constrained by prior planning•FY14-FY16 ~ 60% constrained against total of 4000

Accession Tradespace is Limited in the 12-24 Months Prior to Execution

KEYInflexible; quotas fixed by contract or prior commitment

Somewhat flexible; the Navy has not committed all quotas

Flexible; the Navy has not committed to quotas

OCS23%

DIRECT5%

RECALL1%

MM ACAD

0%

IST0%

STUDENT14%

STA-215%

FM ENL (LDO/CWO)

12%

USNA19%

ROTC21%

Flexibility of FY-13 Accessions Data source FY13 3990+100 Accession Plan Draft as of 30JUL12/FY14-FY18 Strength & INV letter Draft as of 31MAR12/FY13 CNRC Contracts as of 30JUL 12

USNA GOAL

NROTC GOAL

STA-21 GOAL

FM ENL GOAL

OCS (DA) & OCS (BCDP) GOAL

MERCHANT MARINE GOAL

INDEFRECALL

INTER-SERVICE

TRANSFER

DIRECT GOAL

STUDENT OPTION GOAL

TOTAL % of FY13

Plan

FY13 PLAN TOTAL 771 829 198 504 912 14 25 4 188 555 4000

4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

2-4 year pipeline

Can delay OCS and

some BDCP

4yr pipeline

Can Reduce Current

Year

Can Reduce Current

Year

Can Reduce Current

Year2-4 year pipeline

FY13 771 829 198 504 585 14 0 0 36 555 3492 87%

FY14 785 700 87 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2415 60%

FY15 773 750 64 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2430 61%

FY16 750 712 45 94 177 21 0 0 36 515 2350 59%

FY17 750 712 45 0 177 0 0 0 36 0 1720 43%

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Excerpt - FY 13 Accession PlanFY13 4150 01OCT12

DESIGUSNA GOAL

USNA (UPPER/ LOWER Bands)

NROTC GOAL

NROTC (UPPER/ LOWER Bands)

STA-21

GOAL

STA-21 Target

FM ENL GOA

L

OCS AP

GOAL

NRC GOAL

NRC Contracted

to Date (AS OF

26SEP12)

MMA/MMR GOAL

INDEF RECAL

L

I-SERVICE TRF/

COMM GOAL

DIRECT GOAL

NRC DIRECT GOAL

STUDENT

OPTION GOAL

TOTAL GOAL

SWO (ED Option) 14 12-14 14 12-14 4 4 0 3 3 1 0 0 0 36SWO (IP Option) 5 2-5 3 1-3 3 3 0 5 6 4 0 0 16SWO (OCEANO Option) 3 1-3 3 1-3 3 3 0 5 5 4 0 14SWO (IW Option) 2 1-2 3 1-3 0 0 5 5 4 0 10SWO (INTEL Option) 2 1-2 3 1-3 1 1 6SWO 116X* 186 181-191 225 175-235 42 42 0 145 165 95 10 2 0 610SWO(N) 116X* 31 31 31 7 7 0 39 43 35 0 108 Male 21 20 5 27 30 Female 10 11 2 12 13SWO TOTALS 243 282 222-292 59 59 0 203 228 142 11 2 0 800

SUB (SE) 1175E 10 10 0 0 20SUB 117X ** 135 114 31 31 0 135 144 107 0 415 Male 124 110 30 130 138 Female 11 4 1 5 6SUB TOTALS 135 114 114 31 31 0 135 144 107 0 415

SPECWAR 118X 27 27-30 9 9-11 3 3 0 21 23 1 2 9 2 0 73EOD 119X 13 12-13 12 12-13 5 5 0 8 9 2 0 38

NFO 137X 78 75-78 72 67-77 24 24 0 91 119 31 5 3 0 273PILOT 139X 230 225-230 228 218-238 40 40 0 268 309 176 5 3 0 774AVIATION TOTALS 308 300-308 300 285-315 64 64 0 359 428 207 10 0 6 0 1047

URL TOTALS 726 702-733 717 645-748 162 162 0 726 832 459 23 11 8 0 2373

HR 120X*** 2 2 0 3 0 5NUCLEAR PWR SCHL INST 121X 0 23 23 0 23Naval Reactors Engineer 122X 0 9 9 0 12 12 0 21PMP 123X 0EDO 146X 0 0 0AEDO 151X 0 0AMDO 152X 0 0 14 15 3 14PAO 165X 0 0 4 4 0 0 4FAO 17XX 0 0 0 0Meteorology/Oceanography 180X 1 0-1 0 0 7 8 1 0 8Information Warfare 181X 4 0-4 1 0-1 4 4 0 38 39 7 0 1 48

Information Professional 182X 4 0-4 1 0-1 0 0 1 1 1 0 6Intelligence 183X 8 0-8 1 0-1 8 8 0 51 55 24 0 1 1 70Cyber Warfare Engineer 184X 2 2 2 3 3 5CEC 510X 6 0-6 3 0-3 4 4 0 60 61 40 0 1 74Supply 310X 13 0-13 3 0-3 3 3 0 85 100 28 0 0 104JAG 250X 0 0 6 6 47 53CHC 410X 0 0 15 37 37 52MED SCHL**** 10 0-15 15 0-15 1 1 0 0 23 49MC 210X 0 0 8 8 250 258DC 220X 0 0 2 24 24 75 101NC 290X 46 44-46 14 14 46 0 2 65 65 65 238MSC 230X 0 40 0 2 110 110 82 234RL/Staff Community Recalls 0 0

RL/STAFF TOTALS 46 0-46 81 76-102 36 36 86 260 283 106 0 24 1 314 288 519 1367

LDO 0 0 237 0 0 0 0 237CWO 0 0 0 173 0 0 0 0 0 173

TOTAL 772 702-779 798 721-850 198 198 496 986 1115 565 23 35 9 314 288 519 4150

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Officer Promotion Basics

• Promotions are a function of:– Requirements

• Defined by Officer Programmed Authorizations (OPA)• Includes both designator discrete and non discrete

1000/1020/1050 OPA– Vacancies

• Promotions, Retirements, Resig’s, Lat Transfers• Legal limits• DOPMA Grade Table - Limits the number of CAPTs, CDRs, &

LCDRs based on total officer strength

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Legal Limits

Grade LAW(Title 10 §623)

OPP FLOW

DoD(DODINST 1320.13)

OPP FLOW

Navy(SECNAVINST 1420.1B)

OPP FLOW

CAPT

CDR

LCDR

LT

LTJG

“Relatively similar opportunity for promotion in each of the next five years”

50% 21-23 yrs

70% 15-17 yrs

80% 9-11 yrs

AFQ 3.5 yrs

AFQ 1.5 yrs

40-60% 21-23 yrs

60-80% 15-17 yrs

70-90% 9-11 yrs

AFQ 4 yrs

AFQ 2 yrs

• Flowpoint: Average years of service when a due course officer is promoted to the next grade

• Opportunity: the in-zone possibility of selection• Selection Rate: Percentage of all officers selected for

promotion Selections (AZ + IZ + BZ) Total Officers in Zone

– Max below zone - 10% (statutory limit)– No above zone limits (by law or policy)

– All officers on the Active Duty List are considered

Promotion Basics

= Selection Rate

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Promotion Basics

• Start with FY beginning inventory• Add gains (lateral transfer, accessions)• Subtract losses (retire, resign, lateral transfer etc.)• Compare total against FY Authorized Strength

• If total < Auth Strength, select the difference• If total > Auth Strength, no selections

Begin INV 600

Gains + 10

Losses - 60

Sum = 550

Auth Strength 600

Sum - 550

Difference + 50

50 Selections for Promotion10

Promotion Basics

• Example - If 50 is the fixed number of promotions...Zone size = #Promotions Percent Opportunity

125 = 50 40%100 = 50 50%

83 = 50 60%

• Opportunity, Zone Size, and Flowpoint are all related– Higher OPPORTUNITY means smaller ZONES, which means

longer (increased) FLOWPOINT

• Larger zones will increase the FOS rate

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Questions/ Discussion