Access to SuccessIndividual, Institutional and Societal

Considerations

Dr. Rick Miner

President, Seneca College

Caveats

• Different results and conclusions depend on populations surveyed

• Limited Canadian data

• Definitional issues (attrition, PSE, persistence, etc.)

• Enrolment management has become an industry

• Failures can be successes

• Successes can result in failures

Some “Facts”

• Access

• Attrition

• Success

Access

Access

Year 2000 Ontario student flow from Grade 9 to post-secondary destinations

• 28% to university

• 23% to colleges

• 25% leave before completing high school

• 24% graduate from high school and go to work

Alan KingOntario Ministry of EducationDouble Cohort Study Phase 2 ReportOctober 17, 2002

Access

High school graduates @ age 20: Post-secondary “enrolment”

• 59% Enrolled in PSE within 12 months of graduation

• 19% Enrolled in PSE more than 12 months after graduation

• 21% Not enrolled in PSEJoanna Tombowicz and Tracy Bushnik

Who goes to post-secondary education and when: Pathways chosen by 20 year olds

Statistics Canada, 2003

Characteristics Right-awayers

Delayers No-goers

Gender (male) 45% 51% 58%Visible Minority 14% 10% 8%Married 6% 7% 12%Have child 2% 2% 6%Rural Community 17% 16% 25%Parents have degree or some PSE

69% 68% 45%

From single parent family 17% 15% 16%Not academically engaged 8% 13% 19%Not socially engaged 9% 15% 15%69% or less average 7% 16% 33%

Friends attending PSE 83% 75% 55%Took career planning course 63% 64% 72%Took courses with work experience

26% 27% 44%

AccessCharacteristics of right-awayers, delayers, no-goers

Joanna Tombowicz and Tracy Bushnik

Who goes to post-secondary education and when: Pathways chosen by 20 year olds Statistics Canada, 2003

Hours worked

per week

Right-awayers

Delayers

No-goers

30+ 4 6 1120 to 30 12 20 2010 to 20 25 24 181 to 10 16 16 16Zero 43 34 34

Characteristics of right-awayers, delayers, no-goers (continued)

Joanna Tombowicz and Tracy Bushnik

Who goes to post-secondary education and when: Pathways chosen by 20 year olds Statistics Canada, 2003

Access

AccessPost-secondary education for Canadians 18 to 24Category Never

taken PSE

Taken PSE

Male 57% 47%

Parents encourage PSE

76% 93%

High school average <70%

73% 53%

Some PSE savings made

36% 62%

Neither parent with PSE

66% 53%

Family income <$30,00

39% 27%

Family income> $80,00

6% 19%

Lynn Barr-Telford, Fernado Cartwright,Sandrine Prasil and Kristina SimmonsAccess, persistence and financing: First results from the post-secondary education surveyStatistics Canada, 2003

Access

Attrition

AttritionGraduation completion rates

College

• 56% Ontario colleges (2002)(within twice the duration of the program)

• 34% U.S. colleges (2003)(within 150% of program length)

• 44% of college graduates thought about quitting at some point.

University

• 73% Ontario Universities (2002)(within seven years)

• 52% U.S. colleges/universities (within 5 years of a 4-year program)

Attrition

At risk students• low high school grades

• male

• part-time

• first generation of PSE

• married with children

• family conflict exists

• working more than 10 hours per week

• unprepared for workload

• unprepared for high school to college transition

• attendance is poor

• little academic or social involvement

• little institutional involvement

• larger classes

AttritionAttrition “Solutions”

Academic Approaches

• Rethink first year, offerings and sequence

• Test early and often

• Provide remedial and academic support

• Keep students “together”

• More faculty advisors

• More “hands on” activities

• Put “right” teachers in the first year

• High school articulations

AttritionAttrition “Solutions”

Social-Interpersonal Approaches

• More academic and social interactions (students with faculty and staff)

• More engagement/involvement in college activities

• Peer mentoring

Life Skills Approach

• Time Management

• Priority Setting

• Money management

• “Control” part-time work

AttritionAttrition “Solutions”

Pre-enrolment Approaches

• Career counseling

• Skill and ability testing

• College success course

• Orientation program

Post Enrolment Approaches

• Research/date collection

• Exit interviews

• Program reviews

Attrition

There’s not a lot of“good” Canadian data

Successand

Educational Achievement

SuccessStatistics Canada 2001 Census Data

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Category 25 to 64 25 to 34 Average Earnings

No high school certificate

23% 15% $21,230

High school certificate

24% 24% $25,477

Trade certificate

13% 12% $32,743

College 18% 21% $32,736

University 23% 28% $48,648

Success

By 2010 it is predicted only 10% of new jobs will be available to those with a high school education or less education.

• 25 to 64 year olds = 47%

• 25 to 34 year olds = 39 %

2001 Statistics Canada data (high school or less)

Success

Employment by educational obtainment- Statistics Canada (2002)

% employed

Less than Grade 9 22%

Some secondary 45%

High school graduate 66%

Some post-secondary 63%

Post-secondary certificate/diploma 73%

University degree 77%

Success

Education level is correlated with:

• Better health• Lower unemployment• Higher incomes• Lower crime

Note: The average incarceration cost per inmate is $66,381 per year and per female inmate is $110,473 per year. (2000-01)

Daily ward “rates”: $858 (Ottawa) to $3,120 (Toronto) (1999)

Canada spends about $4,000 per capita on health care (2001)

The Seneca Experience(Access and Attrition)

Most things have stayed the same

Input measures have not changed much… • Math and English test scores

• Source of students

• English as first language

• Subject interest

Reading Comprehension Test Scores

0

10

20

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80

90

100

Entry Cycle

Co

lleg

e M

ean

Sco

re o

n C

PT

Read

ing

Co

mp

reh

en

sio

n

Test

1992-2002

Sentence Skills Test Scores

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Entry Cycle

Co

lle

ge

Me

an

Sc

ore

on

CP

T S

en

ten

ce

Sk

ills

Te

st

1992-2002

Arithmetic Test Scores

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Entry Cycle

Co

lle

ge

Me

an

Sc

ore

on

CP

T A

rit

hm

eti

c

Te

st1992-2002

Algebra Test Scores

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Entry Cycle

Co

lle

ge

Me

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Sc

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CP

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1992-2002

“My first language learned was English”

•1997 66% 54%•1998 64% 52%•1999 64% 49%•2000 63% 49%•2001 63% 46%•2002 66% 49%

Fall Term Winter Term

•1992 68% N/A•1993 65% N/A•1994 65% N/A•1995 65% N/A•1996 64% N/A

“My main activity in the past 12 months has been…”

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

F94 F95 F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02

Secondary College/Univ Adult upgrading

working/homemaker Unemployed Other

1992-2002

Student projected hours of work duringschool year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

20 hours/week11 plus/week10 or less/weeknone

Attrition analysis - Seneca College (2002-2003)

45%

35%

8%11% 1%

Required academic withdrawlEarly leaversStudent withdrawalGraduation requirement not completedOther

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1992 8% 12% 19% 6% 23% 7% 2% 23%

2002 5% 5% 19% 5% 34% 5% 3% 24%

Going to work

Lack of money

Change in career

Changing school

Personal problems

Academic difficulties

OtherNo reason

given

Withdrawal Results: 1992 vs. 2002

Non-Returners (January to September): Departure reasons (N=84)

Reason

Academic/career change 30%

Program/organizational dissatisfaction 15%

Academic performance 8%

Financial 15%

Work commitments 7%

Health/family matters 18%

Other 6%

Non-Returners: Current Status

Category

Employed 41%

Enrolled in PSE 21%

Seeking employment 15%

Other (health, applications pending, 23% upgrading, unemployed – not seeking)

Non-Returners: Post-secondary intentions

Category

Currently enrolled in PSE 21%

Return to Seneca 37%

Return to other PSE 13%

Don’t plan PSE 13%

Other 15%

Access and

Attrition Reduction Activities

Pan Canadian Project

• High school graduate with no PSE experience

• Academic and Life Preparation emphasis

• Five or six national locations

• Multiple partners- College/University- NGO (National)- Local School Boards- Local Businesses

• Action research model• Preparatory (with credit)

Access

Role of Seneca College Learning Centres

Out-of-classroom Academic and Curriculum Support:

• Help for all registered Seneca students;

• Cross-curricular issues of literacy and numeracy;

• Support for most academic areas, particularly English and Math-related subjects;

• Students work closely with tutors on concepts and problem solving;

• Small group tutoring and workshops;

• Study Skills and Time Management;

• Maximum of 100 minutes per week per subject.

Attrition

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Annual Total Visits 10,104 9,912 14,621 21,408 26,868 27,900

Seneca FTE 15,691 16,430 16,372 16,589 16,865 17,438

Visits/FTE 0.64 0.6 0.89 1.29 1.59 1.6

1997-98 1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-20022002-2003 projected

Seneca Learning Centres' Total Annual VisitsAttrition

Student Mentoring in Life & Education (SMILE)

• ibox project (2002-2003)• 10 “senior” students/20 protégés• Developed mentor guidelines, orientation• Proactive approach• Faculty/staff support• Technology assistance (My Seneca)• 100% retention after one semester• Expanded in 2003-2004 (20 mentors, 48 proteges)

Attrition

Attrition research project (proposed)

• First year intervention, follow-up years two and three

• Identify at risk students

• Randomly assign students to treatment

Attrition

Attrition research project (proposed)

• Treatments

- “Required” support- Optional support- General support

• Support

- Career clarification- Mentoring- Math tutoring- English language support

Sample size= 450 (150/treatment/year) Follow-up in years two and three.

New intake each year.

Attrition

Closing Remarks• Access to Success is a College hallmark

Recommendation from a university attrition report:

“Recruitment efforts should be focused on potential students who are both committed and prepared to begin university and who are certain university is an appropriated choice for them.”

• Society needs a better educated population

• economic reasons

• social reasons

• personal reasons

• return on investment is there (12.0%): narrow perspective

Closing Remarks

Failures can be successes

Not all attrition is bad

• Logical progression (transfers)

• New learnings (self discovery)

• Planned progression (articulated programs)

Closing Remarks

Successes can be failures

• Resource requirements might jeopardize other programming

• Attrition reduction might result in access problems