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Christine Johnson, Ph.DChristine Johnson, Ph.D
Changing Face of Changing Face of AmericaAmerica
The Degree GapThe Degree Gap
Percent with BA or higher (2000)Percent with BA or higher (2000) 28% of whites 28% of whites 17% of African Americans 17% of African Americans 11% of Hispanics11% of Hispanics
Relationship of Income to Relationship of Income to College AccessCollege Access
RateRate
88.8%88.8%
68.2%68.2%
53.3%53.3%
Family IncomeFamily Income
> $74,584> $74,584
$25,064-$47,405$25,064-$47,405
< $25,064< $25,064
High Skilled & Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce, High Skilled & Unskilled Jobs as a % of the Workforce, 2000 to 20122000 to 2012
18.4% 19.2%20.7%
13.0%11.8% 10.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Professional & RelatedOccupations
Production, installation,maintenance & Repair
Occupations
2000
2002
2012
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Societal ChangeSocietal Change
Civilian Labor Force by Educational Attainment 1970 to 2004
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%19
70
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
High School Graduate
Less Than 4 Years High School
1-3 Years College
Bachelor's Degree or More
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Shared Prosperity?Shared Prosperity?
Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Projected Growth in Supply and Demand of Workers With Some Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028Postsecondary Education, 1998 to 2028
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1998 2008 2018 2028
Tho
usan
ds
Jobs requiring some postsecondary experience
Workers with some postsecondary experience
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau and National Alliance of Business
Education RequiredEducation Required
75% of new jobs require some 75% of new jobs require some post-secondary education.post-secondary education.
Only 35% of Americans (25-34) Only 35% of Americans (25-34) have 2 or more years post-have 2 or more years post-secondary education.secondary education.
-Source: 2000 data-Source: 2000 dataNational Information Center for Higher Ed.National Information Center for Higher Ed.
America’s Future at Stake
Accountability AgainAccountability Again
More focus on success of students—More focus on success of students—not just accessnot just access
Evidence of student learning will be Evidence of student learning will be required by accrediting agencies, required by accrediting agencies, states, and federal governmentstates, and federal government
Colleges will move toward a culture Colleges will move toward a culture of evidence and use of dataof evidence and use of data
More Focus on K-12 More Focus on K-12 TransitionsTransitions
Expectations for HE need to be Expectations for HE need to be made clearmade clear
Transitions need to be improvedTransitions need to be improved League’s CCTILeague’s CCTI GEAR-UPGEAR-UP Concurrent enrollmentConcurrent enrollment Middle College HSMiddle College HS
Access is Access is notnot enough – enough –
must be ACCESS and SUCCESSmust be ACCESS and SUCCESS
““The crucial issue is The crucial issue is “attending vs. not attending “attending vs. not attending
college.”college.” The mere fact of attending college may be The mere fact of attending college may be
more important than where one goes.”more important than where one goes.”(Ernest T. Pascarella and Patrick T. Terenzini)(Ernest T. Pascarella and Patrick T. Terenzini)
(3 decades of research and most extensive (3 decades of research and most extensive study of how college changes people found study of how college changes people found unequivocally that increased factual unequivocally that increased factual knowledge and intellectual skills; changes knowledge and intellectual skills; changes in values and attitudes, principled in values and attitudes, principled reasoning to judge moral issues; and life reasoning to judge moral issues; and life choices that impact lifestyles and nature of choices that impact lifestyles and nature of their children’s lives)their children’s lives)
ACCESS ISSUESACCESS ISSUES
Affordability; preparation; guidance and Affordability; preparation; guidance and counseling; 2 to 4 year transfers; counseling; 2 to 4 year transfers; transfer of low income/minority at lower transfer of low income/minority at lower rate than middle income and white rate than middle income and white students; quality of learning experience; students; quality of learning experience; alignment across education sectors;alignment across education sectors;
Agreement about what students ought to Agreement about what students ought to be learning (curriculum/standards); be learning (curriculum/standards); shared student information across shared student information across sectorssectors
Recommendations: Recommendations:
Developing methods to assess learning Developing methods to assess learning gains and college added-valuegains and college added-value
Evaluating use of student success data Evaluating use of student success data to drive institutional changeto drive institutional change
Documenting student involvement in Documenting student involvement in college (involvement raises college (involvement raises retention/graduation)retention/graduation)
Tracking academic proficiency and Tracking academic proficiency and reporting progressreporting progress
Recommendations:Recommendations:
Financial incentives to shift from Financial incentives to shift from enrollment driven institutions to success enrollment driven institutions to success driven institutions with low income/first driven institutions with low income/first generation student populationsgeneration student populations
Two to four year transfer of low income Two to four year transfer of low income and underserved students as institutional and underserved students as institutional and state strategic prioritiesand state strategic priorities
Shift from “cost” to “investment” mindset Shift from “cost” to “investment” mindset
Thank you.Thank you.