1. 1nd. Soc. Agril. Statist.61 (3), 2007: 313-327

Abstracts of Papers

Improved Product Type Estimator

Manish Sharma and Sharad BhatnagarlSher-e-Kashmir University of AgriculturalSciences & Technology, Jammu

An improved product type estimator of populationmean has been worked out from the general class ofbiased product type estimators proposed by Sharmaet al. (2007). Its large sample properties were comparedwiththe conventionalproductestimatorand the estimatorsproposed by Robson (1957), Singh (1989) and Dubey(1993). The proposed estimator performed better thanthe conventional product, Robson (1957), Singh (1989)and Dubey (1993) estimatorsaccording to mean squarederror criterion. The performance of the proposedestimator of population mean over other estimators wasdemonstrated through empirical study.

1.

lees Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar

2. Analysis of Spatial Pattern of PopulationDistribution of Sugarcane Early Shoot Borer,Chilo Infuscatellus Snellen

Rajesh Kumar, D.C. Rajak, P.K. Bajpai andS.S. Hasan

Indian Institute of Sugarcane Research,Lucknow

A measure of aggregation that is biologically soundand statistically valid is essential for the complete analysisof ecological data of insects. The distribution of insectsin their habitat follows a characteristic pattern dependingupon their inherent properties and habitat conditions(Iwao 1970). The spatial distribution of insect populationproduces real estimates of population densities and it isan essential component in pest management programme.Survey was conducted by Indian Institute of SugarcaneResearch Bio Control Center -Nellore, AP in sugarcanecommand area ofKCSF Ltd, Nellore during 2000-01 todetermine the spatial distribution pattern of infestationof sugarcane Early Shoot Borer, Chilo infuscatellusSnellen. Unprotected commercial variety '87 A298' wassurveyed and twenty samples of 100 cane each wereselected from May 2000 to October 2000. In each month,number of infested canes were counted and arranged in

frequency distribution. Mean ( x ) and variance (S2)werecalculated. Therefore, spatial distribution of infestationof Chilo infuscatellus Snellen on sugarcane was studiedusing different statistical techniques.

table 1. Parameters for aggregation index

The variance values were more than mean number

of infested cane of Chilo infuscatellus Snellen duringall the months of observations indicating contagiousmanner of infestation of Chilo infuscatellus Snellen.The distribution parameter (K) values were> I in all themonths (except May and October) indicating that theChilo infuscatellus Snellen distribution was aggregatedin nature (Southwood 1978).The patchiness indexvaluesvaries from 1.06to 2.5 (>1)which suggestedaggregatednature of the distribution (Southwood 1978). In most ofthe months, the value of normal variable (d) is greaterthan 1.96 and positive, which showed the possibility ofcontagious nature of distribution. David and Moore'sindex values being> 0 and positive in all the monthsindicated that the distribution was neither random nor

regular.Similarly,Lexi's indexand Lloyd's indexof meanwere indicative of aggregation of Chilo infuscatellusSnellen. It is observed that infestation of Chilo

infuscatellusSnellen,exhibitedaggregatedor contagiousor clumped nature of distribution in the field. In order tofurther confirm the aggregated pattern of infestation ofChilo infuscatellus Snellen, Taylor's power law andlwao's regressionequationwere calculated.The equationdepicting variance-mean relationship is as follows.

Taylor's power law

S2 = abx (1)

Months x S' K X*/x David Standard Lexi's Lloyd'sand normal index index

Moor Varia- of mearindex te (d) (X*)

May 1.35 :3.8:3 u.7:3 2.:36 1.84 4.:3U 1.611 :3.I'}

June IU5 20.19 16.36 1.06 0.72 2.00 1.31 12.47

July ]] .05 19.15 15.08 1.07 0.73 2.03 1.32 IU8

August 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 2.64 1.41 2.00

Septembet 0.70 l.ll 1.20 1.84 0.59 1.68 1.26 1.29

October 0.20 0.26 0.67 2.50 0.30 0.95 1.14 0.50

314 JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

where a= 1.7712 is called sampling factor and b = 1.0376is called aggregation factor. The values of a and b wereworked out and are given above.

lwao's regression equation

x'= ex+~X: (2)

x' is Lloyd's indices of mean crowding is defined as

2x xx' = x+- where K = ~K S -x

where the values of exand 13were worked out by fitting

equation (2) and are as follows

ex= 0.92124 and 13= 1.0001

The aggregation index b value and contagious regressioncoefficient 13were 1.0376 and 1.0001 respectively. Thevalues ofb and 13were greater than one. This indicatedthat the infestation of Chilo infuscatellus Snellen is over

dispersed or clumped or aggregated in nature ofdistribution.

3. Use of Auxiliary Variate to Improve thePrecision of Estimates at Current Occasionin Two-occasion Rotation Patterns

G.N.Singh and Kumari PriyankaIndian School of Mines, Dhanbad

The present work deals with the problem ofestimation of population mean of study character whenit is changing over time. In this week, an attempt hasbeen made to utilize the varying (dynamic) auxiliaryvariate at both the occasions, to improve the precision ofestimatesat current occasion in two-occasion successive

(rotation) sampling.Chain-type difference estimator hasbeen proposed. The practicability of the proposedestimator has been discussed. The proposed estimatoris compared with the sample mean estimator when thereis no matching and the optimum successive samplingestimator when no additional auxiliary information hasbeenused.Optimumreplacementpolicy isalsodiscussed.Extensive simulation studies have been carried out to

evaluate the relative performance of the proposedestimator, using some real data example. Simulationresults suggest that the proposed estimator is highlyprecIse.

Robust Estimation in Stratified Samplingunder General Linear Super-populationModel

R.P. Kaushal and B.V.S. SisodiaND. University of Agriculture & Technology,Faizabad

Pereira and Rodrigues (1983) generalized andunified the results of the theory of linear prediction insurvey sampling under general linear model. This paperextends their results to stratified sampling following thework of Royall and Herson (1973b) under general linearsuper-population model when regression coefficients ofthe model are common across the strata. Robustness ofthe linear predictor of the population total is studied.Special cases of general linear model are described asan example to illustrate the results.

4.

5. On Preliminary Test Estimator by ExploringCorrelation Models in Repeated SurveysB.V.S.SisodiaND. University of Agriculture & Technology,Faizabad

In repeated surveys, the correlation structurebetween the values of the same characteristics underinterest between any two occasions plays an importantrole in improvingthe estimates of population parameterson the current occasion. Various correlation structureswere assumed in literature (Yates 1949,Patterson 1950,Tikkiwal1951, Singh 1968)and the improvedestimatorswere developed for the current occasion. In the presentpaper,these correlationstructureswere exploredby usingtest of significance and consequently a preliminary testestimator (PTE) of population parameter is developedfor current occasion. A case of three occasions areconsidered for simplicity. The properties of PTE arestudied and its efficiency is evaluated with usualestimators.It has beenfoundthat undercertain situations,PTE performed well over usual estimators.

6. Weather Based Sugarcane Yield PredictionModel for the State of Uttar Pradesh

Arun K. Srivastava, P.K. Bajpai, R.L. Yadav andS.S. HasanIndian Institute of Sugarcane Research,Lucknow

A weather interactive model for predictingsugarcane yield for the state of Uttar Pradesh was

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

developedusing20 years (1980-99)productivitydatabasefor Uttar Pradesh and weather database for Lucknow.

The monthly average of weather parameters such asmaximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature,morning(RH7) and afternoon (RH 14)relative humidity,rainfall (Rain) and range of temperature (Trange) wereused from April to September. Three models weredeveloped. Modell includes weather parameters Tmin,RH7, RH14,Rain andTrange.Model2 isbasedon Tmax,Tmin, RH7, RH14, Rain and Trange. Model 3 includedTmax, Tmin, RH7, RH14 and Rain. These multipleregression models were developed using generatedvariables for each weather parameter based onrespective correlation coefficients of individual weatherparameters with yield during April to September. Themodels were updated for each year for predicting theyield in the following year. The coefficients ofdeterminationofthese modelswerefoundto be significantat 1% .Themodelswere validated ITom2000-01to 2005-

06 sugarcane crop seasons. Model 3 was found bestwith Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as 11.51%.

7. On Methods of Estimation of Small Area

Statistics in Repeated Surveys

Bhim Singh, B.Y.S. Sisodial and Y.N.RailMPUAT, Udaipur

In decentralized planning process for socio-economic development of the country, one is faced withthe problem of producing statistics for local areas e.g.blocks, panchayats, villages, groups of wards in a cityetc. Domain studies are quite common in sample surveyswhere small parts of the population are the domains ofinterest. A special feature of domain studies is thatsurveysare notplannedspecificallyfor estimatingdomainparameters but they are developed on the basis ofavailable sample units in the respective domains. In thispaper,someestimatorsof population mean for smallareaon current occasion (2nd occasion) in successivesampling over two occasions are developed usingseparate ratio-type estimator and combined ratio-typeestimator. The Mean Square Error (MSE) of proposedestimatorshas beenderivedand their relativeefficiencies

have been worked out theoretically.The combined ratio-

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type estimator has been found to be more efficient than

separate ratio-type estimator under certain conditions.An empirical investigation has been carried out todemonstrate the results.

, Narendra Deva University of Agriculture & Technology,Faizabad

8. Some Regression-Type Chain Estimators forPopulation Product Based on Two AuxiliaryVariables in Double Sampling Scheme

Virendra Pratap SinghNational Council of Educational Researchand Training, New Delhi

This paper proposes several regression-type chainestimators for estimating the product of two finitepopulation means using two auxiliary variables in doublesampling for SRSWOR scheme. Asymptotic propertiesof the constructed estimators have been studied and

their performances are also examined under large sampleapproximations.

9. Growth Pattern of Male Japanese Quailunder Indian Conditions

Harpal Singh, Raj Narayan, D.P. Singh,B.P. Singh, Shiv Prasad I and Ram GopalCentral Avian Research Institute, Izatnagar

The average body weight of four genotypes ofJapanese quail viz. CARl Uttam x CARl Uttam, CARlUjjwal x CARl Ujjwal, CARl Uttam x CARl Ujjwaland CARl Ujjwal x CARl Uttam maintained at thisInstitute were 22.60:J: 0.47 g, 24.07:J:0.57g, 22.3O:J:0.43g,and 25.18:J:0.53 g respectively at 1st week and attained210.52:J: 1.95 g, 223.88:J: 2.71 g, 209.80:J: 2.24 g and223.03 :J:2.21 g respectively at 10th week of age. Fourgrowth models namely quadratic, modified exponential,logistic and Gompertz were fitted to their average weeklybody weights. On the basis of three measures ofgoodness of fit namely R2, mean square error and meanabsolute error, Gompertz model was found best todescribe the growth pattern of all these genotypes.

, Indian VeterinaryResearch Institute, Izatnagar

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10. A Study on Impact of Weather Parameterson Wheat Production

K.K. Pandey, V.N. Rai and R.P. KaushalN.D. University of Agriculture & Technology,Faizabad

Fisher (1924) studied the influence of rainfall onthe yield of wheat and showed that it is total amountwhich influence the crop yields. Tippet (1929)subsequently applied the technique on sunshinedistributionand foundthat sunshinehas beneficialeffect

throughout the year on wheat. Normal, Lognormal andPearson's type distribution were studied for each yearseparately for weather variables viz. maximum &minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall hour,wind velocity, pan evaporation and bright sunshine. Wefound that Normal distribution fitted only in case ofmaximum temperature for the year 1990 and 1993.Lognormal distribution fitted only in case of panevaporation for the year 1998 and 2003 and sunshine(hours) for the year 1992 and 1995. Pearson's type Idistribution fitted in all the years for all the weathervariables except in few of cases. Pearson's type IVdistribution fitted for the year 1992 in case of maximumtemperature,1994inthe minimumtemperature, 1994and1998 in case of rainfall. Pearson's type II distributionfitted for the year 1994in case of maximumtemperatureand for all the years for minimum temperature. WhereasPearson's type VI distribution fitted for the year 1990for pan evaporation and for all the years for rainfall.

11. A Comparative Study of Three SpatialAnalysis Methods under the Backdrop ofReal Life Rice Yield Data

A. Majumder, A. Sahu1,R. Nathl and S. PaPRegional Research Station (R & L Zone),BCKV, Jhargam

The experimentaldata on grainyields of rice (Oryzasativa L.) for the years 2000 and 2001 were analyzedusing traditional Randomized Complete Block Design(RCBD) and three NN analyses methods viz. Papadakis(1937), IteratedPapadakis(Bartlett 1978)and Wilkinsonet al. (1983). The presence of trend was observed inone block in 2000 but the blocks in 200I were found to

have no trends when tested by W-Test (Shapiro andWilk1965) and Mann's test. It was observed that afterdetrendingusingthe abovementionedmodels,the relative

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

efficiency (RE) in case of Wilkinson model was in therange of 146% to 147% for the years 2000 and 2001,respectively. Iterated Papadakis method seems to be themost efficient in removing spatial trend in the field andhad relative efficiencies ranging from 177%to 182.2%for the two years. Papadakis showed RE ranging from173.2% to 178.2% for the two years. No significantchanges in ranking of treatment means for Papadakis aswell as iterated Papadakis methods was observed.Wilkinsonmodelbroughta major rearrangementof ranks.However, wide variation in ranks of top five varietiesunder trial was not observed.

J Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Nadia

12. Pattern of Foot and Mouth Disease amongCattle in India

Shiv Prasad and Rajendra SinghIndian Veterinary Research Institute, IzatnagarOn the basis of annual occurrence of Foot and

Mouth Disease (FMD) among cattle in India 1991-2005,it was observed that the incidence and mortality ratesfollowed quadratic trend of four to five years period.But the shape of quadratic trends of incidence rate andmortality rate are opposite to each other, the first beingupward and second downward. The overall averageincidence, mortality and fatality rates were 312.48 permillion, 5.41 per million and 1.71% respectively duringthe period. The contribution ofFMD in incidence of alldiseases harming cattle population followed decreasingtrend with five yearly averages 56.00%, 54.17% and43.17% but registered the increasing trend in mortality(10.45%, 14.54% and 28.15%).

13. Non-linear Growth Studies for ForecastingWheat (Triticum Spp. L.) Productivity inBihar

Mahesh Kumar, S.P. Singh, R.C. Bharatjl andS.K. SinhaI

Rajendra Agricultural University, Pusa,Samastipur

As wheat is important staple food crop, its demandincreases with increasing population. Looking to thisimportance of wheat crop in Bihar, an attempt has beenmade to apply some non-linear mechanistic growthmodels to wheat productivity data ,isBihar.

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

Forthis purposethe wheat productivitydata of Biharwere collected from the Directorate of Economics and

Statistics, Govt. of Bihar, Patna for the period from1950-51 to 2004-05. The data of 1950-51 to 2003-04

wereutilizedfor developingforecastmodeland remainingone year (2004-05) data kept for validation of forecastmodel. The data were subjected to fitted of threemechanistic growth models viz. Logistic, Gompertz and4thDegreepolynomial.The 4thDegreepolynomialmodelwas found suitable for complete Bihar state, along withthe conformationof assumptioninvolved.The rest modelsfit well but the normality assumption gets violated. The4thDegreepolynomial modelobtained for Bihar as givenbelow can be used to genes rate forecast.

Y =a+bt+ce+dr+e~t

Coefficient data

a =0.811110

c =0.0052169965

b = -0.07031973

d=-O.00010072329

e = 6.7187084 e-007

Yt =2.115131 MT/H

t= 55 years

This forecast value 2.115131 MT/H is very closeto actual yield of 55thyear (2004-05) (= 2.091MT/H).

'[CAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, Patna

14. A Moment Method for Estimating MeanFibre Weight in Jute Crop

Abhijit BhattacharyaIndian Institute of Management, Luc/cnow

The present study proposes a method to estimatethe mean weight of fibre on the basis of a specifiednumber of Jute plants. Identification of these plants ismade with the help of informationon certain biometricalcharacteristics (such as plant height and base diameter)of Jute plants. These characteristics are supposed to becorrelated with weight of Jute fibre. The proposedmethod of moments takes its origin in determining theweightw to be assignedto the fibre weightof jth JuteJ

plant (j = 1,2, ...,n). FollowingAmdit et al. (2006), theseweights have been computed by solving the system ofequations

J M 1 n M~ w. IT xl,m = - ~ IT x~m"'-' J J 111 n "'-' 1111

j=1 m=l i=l m=1

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where I E(0, 1,2, ...,d) such that:2;I ~ d and xi is them m ,m

measurement on mthbiometrical characteristics of ith

plant ( i = 1, 2, ..., n ; m = 1, 2, ..., M ). In the presentinvestigation, d = 2 which represents the order of

approximatingpolynomial.Here, J=M+dCd the right-

hand sides of the above system of equations are theempiricalmomentsthat are obtained fromthe full sampleand the left-hand sides are the approximating quadraturemoments. For M = 2 and d = 2, we have J = 6 and hencethere are six distinct moments of degree 2 or less. Thissystem of equation can always be solved with no morethan J positive weights w. In the present study, data onJ

height (in feet), base diameter (in cms.) and weight (ingrams) offifty Jute plants (Capsulances) has been takenfrom the experiment conducted at Jute AgriculturalResearch Institute Farm, Barrackpore, West Bengal(Shukla 1965). The study reveals that an estimate ofmean fibre weight can be obtained with the help of six(instead of fifty) Jute plants. The weighted average offibre weights of six Jute plants is found to be 5.23 gramswhich is within 8% of the actual fibre weight computedon the basis of all the fifty Jute plants.

15. A Multivariate Approach for ParentalDivergence and Heterosis in DicoccumWheat Yield

YN. Havaldar, Pradeepkumar N.O. andS.A. Desai

University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

.In order to find out the relationship between geneticdivergence among the parents and heterosis for grainyield of dicoccum wheat, an investigation was made.The datawere collectedITomDr.SanjayaRajaramWheatLaboratory MARS,UAS, Dharwad. To find thedivergence among the genotypes Mahalanobis 02analysis and Tocher's method were carried out forclusteringthe genotypes.Twoclusterswere formedunderboth the conditions. Heterosis for grain yield over betterparent carried out in both conditions to relatethe parentaldivergence with heterosis. It was found that most oftheheterotic crosses for grain yield over better parent couldbe obtainedfromthe optimumdivergentgroupof parents.

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16. Livestock Production for Nutrition andLivelihood - Some Statistical Issues: A Case

Study of Jharkhand StateR.K. Mishra

Birsa Agricultural University, Ranchi

Livestock keeping in India is almost a ruraloccupation and a large percentage of people engaged inraising cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, pigs, poultry etc.belong to the poorer section of the rural community.Anyattemptto improvethe LivestockDevelopmentProgramswill go on a long way in improving nutrition in generaland providing livelihoodto the rural masses in particular.It is more significant in lharkhand where about 55-60%populationbelongto ST,SCand aBC, who are bracketedalmost in BPL (Below Poverty Line) group and living inrural area. On account of undulating land, poor soilconditions, low level of ir!'igation,soil erosion and poorinfrastructure etc., crop husbandry has not been able toattract youth that form two-third of the population. Onthe other hand, livestock has comparative advantage asit is their traditional occupation and does not require somuch critical inputs. As also, Livestock Wealth of thestate ishighlyimpressiveand vastpotential fornutritionalfood, such as, milk and milk products, meat and eggs.Livestock also provides a variety of raw materials, viz.bones, hides and skins, hooves, hair, horns, dung etc. forindustrial uses and can provide livelihood to small andmarginal farmers and agricultural labourers. In thisregard,animal husbandrystatistics has significantrole inplanning and development of livestock production fornutrition and prosperity. In this process, some statisticalissues standing in the way of development, have alsobeen identified and will be discussed to find solution.

17. Forecasting of Crop Yield using WeatherParameters and Agricultural Inputs

Ranjana Agrawal and Amrender KumarIndian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute,New Delhi

Pre-harvest forecast of crop yield is very usefulfor Government and planners in taking various policydecisions relating to procurement, storage, distribution,marketing, price, export-import, etc. The main factorsaffectingcrop yieldare weathervariablesand agricultural

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

inputs. Weather affects crop differently during differentstages of crop growth. Thus, extent of weather influenceon crop yield depends not only on the magnitude ofweather variables but also on the distribution pattern ofweather over the crop season which, as such, calls forthe necessity of dividing the whole crop season into fineintervals. This will increase number of variables in themodel and in turn a large number of model parameterswill have to be evaluated fromthe data. This will requirea long series of data for precise estimation of theparameterswhich may not be available in practice.Thus,a technique based on relatively smaller number ofmanageable parameters and at the same time taking careof entire weather distribution may solve the problem.

Therefore, a methodology has been developed toconstruct suitable weather indices which can be used in

the model along with agricultural inputs and/or somevariable representing trend for forecasting crop yield.To study the performance of the methodology, a studyhas been carried out for one important kharif crop (rice),one important rabi crop (wheat) and one long durationcrop (sugarcane) in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Oistrict-wise data on area, production, productivity,per cent areaunder irrigation, fertilizer consumption and weekly dataon weather variables namely, maximum and minimumtemperature,relativehumidity(morning)and rainfallwereutilized in the study.Weekly weather data starting froma fortnight before sowing were used for rice and wheatwhereas for sugarcane, fortnightly weather data startingfrom March were taken into consideration. Suitablemodelsat district/agro-climaticzone levelweredevelopedusingweather indices,year,previousyear's yield,movingaverages of yield, per cent area under irrigation andfertilizer consumption (N, P,K). Models were validatedby comparing forecast of subsequently years (notincluded in the modeldevelopment)with actual observedyield. Results indicated that reliable forecasts of rice andwheat can be obtained when crop is 11 weeks old i.e.around 2~ months before harvest and in middle ofSeptember i.e. around 5 months before harvest forsugarcane. The methodology is simple, adoptable, doesnot involve use of very detailed data collection/sophisticated statistical tools and at the same time itprovides reasonably good forecast. The methodology issuitable at district, agro-climatic zone as well as statelevel.

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

18. A Ratio-cum-Product Estimator of Finite

Population Mean in Stratified RandomSampling

Rajesh Tailor, San deep Kumar Sharma andRitesh Tailorl

National Council of Educational Research andTraining, New Delhi

In this paper a ratio-cum-product estimator of finitepopulation mean has been suggested in stratified randomsampling using the information on coefficient of variationof auxiliary variate. Bias and mean squared errorexpressions of the suggested estimator are derived andcompared with combined ratio estimator and estimatorconsidered by Kadilar and Cingi (2003). An empiricalstudy is also carried out to demonstrate the performanceof the suggested estimator.

JLokmanya Tilak Mahavidyalaya, Ujjain

19. An Index for Selecting GenotypesSimultaneously for High Yield and Stabilityunder Incomplete Genotype x EnvironmentData

A.R. Rao, S.D. Wahi, Shiv Kumar Choudharyand v.T. Prabhakaran

Indian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New DelhiSeveralmethods are available in literature that take

careof yieldand stabilitysimultaneouslywhengenotypesare grown over a number of environments and data iscomplete. However, in practice, incomplete data areobserved due to reasons like insufficient seed, pests anddisease, non-germination of seeds. A new family ofsimultaneous selection indices is proposed here, whichcan be used for selecting genotypes simultaneously forhighyield and stabilityin incompletedata situations.Thenew indices are also tested for their performance ongroundnut crop data.

20. A Study on Performance of SimultaneousSelection Indices against MissingObservations

S.D. Wahi, A.R. Rao, Shiv Kumar Choudharyand V.T. Prabhakaran

Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute,New Delhi

Several simultaneous selection indices are available

to select varieties for both high yield and stability.

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Performances of few such indices have been comparedwhen data is complete, i.e., yield data of varieties acrosslocations are available. However, under incomplete datasituations performance of simultaneous selection indiceshave not yet been compared. In this study, we havecompared the performance of several combined selectionmeasures against missing observations and identified themeasures, based on standard statistical techniques, thatcan select varieties simultaneously for both high yieldand stability.

21. Application of Clustering Technique onAICRP Trial of Groundnut Data forSub-zonalization

Shiv Kumar Choudhary, A.R. Rao, S.D. Wahi,and V.T. PrabhakaranIndian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute,New Delhi

Quite often, it is observed that varieties that areperforming well in one part of a larger zone are unableto get selected in the other part of the same zone, maybedueto highvariationinenvironmentalconditionswithinthe zone. An attempt has been made to apply clusteringtechnique to sub-zonalize the larger zone based onvarietal performance observed across locations withinthe zone. Specific varieties that are high yielders as wellas stable performers in the sub-zones have beenidentified.

22. Simplified Linear Invariant Estimators ofParameters of Log-Logistic Distributionunder Type-II Left Censoring

Somappa N. Megeri and M.S. ChikkagoudarlUniversity of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

In life data analysis censoring occurs naturally orsometimes it is necessary to censor the data. In somesituations it may be very difficult to observe life timedata since from start of the experiment, we may startobserving/recording of data after sometime as a resultwe loose some data in the beginning for this we call leftcensoring and under this situation here we consider theestimation aspect of the parameters. Best linear unbiasedestimators (BLUE) are required to obtain Best linearinvariant estimators (BUE) as proposed by Mann.Lloyd's procedure requires full knowledge ofexpectations aj and the covariance rp.atrixB, of the orderstatistics Yito obtain BLUE. Since it is very difficult to

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determine the covariances we considered simple methodproposed by Gupta for estimating the parameters andthese estimators are called as simplified linear unbiasedestimators (SLUE). By using these SLUE we obtainedsimplified linear invariant estimators (SLIE) for theparameters oflog-logistic distribution under type-II leftcensoring. We studied the bias, variance and mean squareerrors of these estimators through simulation.

J Karnatak University, Dharwad

23. Path Analysis in Vegetable Crops

P.A. Katarki and S. VijayanUniversity of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

Present study is based on available data fromAICRP on vegetable and AICRP on potato formorphological characters and yield of the selectedvegetables such as chilli, tomato and potato for the year2003-04. Path analysis for chilli yield revealed that fruitbreadth, calyx length and single fruit weight had highdirect effect on yield. The rest of characters had indirectinfluenceon yield through ITuitbreadth.Plant height andfruit length had high negative direct effe.cton yield andalmost nearer to its correlation coefficient. Path analysisfor tomato yield revealed that out of twelve characters,number of primary and secondary branches, number oflocules,numberof clustersper plantand total &uitweightper plant exhibited high positive correlation on yield butonly number of clusters per plant and number ofsecondarybranches exhibitedhigh positive direct effectson yield. All the other traits had positive and negativeindirectinfluenceon totalyieldthroughnumberof clustersper plant, number of secondary branches and number oflocules, respectively. Path analysis for total tuber yieldin potato revealed that average tuber weight and numberof tubers per plant had high positivedirect effect on tuberyield. Rest of the characters had indirect influence ontuber yield through average tuber yield and number oftubers per plant.

24. Models for Annual Egg Production ofKadakanath and its Crosses with CARl Red

D.P. Singh, Shiv Prasad! and Raj NarayanCentral Avian Research Institute, Izatnagar

The daily egg production of Kadakanath and itscrosses with CARl Red viz. Kadakanath x CARl Red

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

and CARl Red x Kadakanath were summarized at four

weekly intervals from 20thto 72ndweek of age (13 periodseach of28 days) as the chickens started egg laying during20-24 wks of age. The average egg production ofKadakanath, Kadakanath x CARl Red and CARl Red

x Kadakanath during first period of production were0.03 :I:0.07, 2.80:1: 0.57 and 4.00:1: 0.58 respectively.During second period it reached to 2.13 :I: 0.44,10.4:1: 1.18 and 7.22:1:0.90 respectively. These chickensattained highest production during 5th(37-40 wks), 6th

(41-44 wks) and 6th (41-44 wks) period andcorresponding average egg production were 17.05:1:0.54,21.79:1:0.40 and 19.72:1:0.47 respectively. After attainingpeak production the egg production decreasedsubsequently and reached 3.26:1: 0.42, 11.40:1: 1.02 and12.51:1:0.81 respectively during last period (69-72 wks)of the study. Ten models were fitted to average fourweekly egg production records. Logistic curvilinear,Adams-Bell and logistic-linear models were found bestto describe the egg production curves ofthese respectivegenotypes.

J Indian VeterinaryResearch Institute, Izatnagar

25. A Ratio-cum-Product Estimator of Finite

Population Mean using Known CorrelationCoefficient

Rajesh TailorNational Council of Educational Researchand Training, New Delhi

This paper proposes a ratio-cum-product estimatoroffinite populationmeanusing informationon populationmean of auxiliary variate and correlation coefficientbetween study variate and auxiliary variate. It has beenshown that the proposed estimator is more efficient thanusual unbiased estimator, ratio estimator, productestimator and estimators proposed by Singh and Tailor(2003). An empirical study is also carried out todemonstrate the merits of the proposed estimator overother estimators.

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

26. A Note on Estimates of Women Work Forcein India -NSS 61st Round

Jagbir SinghIndian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Ddhf

Some observations, on the report "Participation ofwomen in specifiedactivities along with domestic duties2004-05" - the fourth in the series of seven reportsbrought out on the results of the seventh quinquennialsurveyon employmentand unemploymentconducted byNSSO in its 6ph round (July 2004 - June 2005) havebeen made in this paper. The broad design adopted forthe survey was a stratified multi-stage random samplingdesignwith villages(panchayatwards inKerala) for ruralareas and the NSSO Urban Frame Survey (UFS) blocksfor urban areas as First Stage Units (FSUs), both ruraland urban households as Ultimate Stage Units (USUs)and hamlet-groups / sub-blocks (i.e. the parts whereverformed within a large FSU) as the Intermediate StageUnits (ISUs). A total of 6,02,833 persons of 1,24,680households from the 12,601 FSUs (including 2,04,808persons of 45,374 households from the 4,602 FSUs inurban areas) of the selected sample could be surveyed.The estimates are based on the data relating to theparticipation in specific activities by the householdmembers engaged in domestic duties according to theusual principal status. The percentages of the rural andurban women engaged in the domestic duties accordingto thp usual principal status were 40 and 50, while thosecarrying out some economic activities in their bothprincipaland subsidiarystatuswere37 and 18respectivelyamong the women of age 5 years & above in India.Broadly the following issues arising from the results ofthe above mentioned survey are raised:

I. Reliability of estimates

2. Use of previous survey information for therefinement of subsequent surveys

3. Use ofIASRI findings for estimation of flow ofwomen's participation in specified activities

4. A measure of impact/evaluation of AssistanceProgrammeson women's participation in specifiedactivities

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27. QTL Detection in Drought Stress in Maj~~

N.N. Jambhulkar, Y.K. Bhatia, A.R. Rao andB.M. PrasannaIndian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Delhi

The loci controlling quantitative traits are referredto as QTLs (Quantitative Trait Loci) and the procedureof finding and locating the QTLs are called QTLmapping. QTLs indicate the genomic regionscontrollingthe expression of a specific quantitative trait, and areinferred from statistical analysis of genomic data inconjunction with phenotypic data. Detection of lociinfluencing the performance of maize in drought stressisdifficult,particularly,inpresenceofQTL x Environmentinteraction. In the present investigation QTLs aremapp~d for drought stress in maize in presence ofQTL x Environment interaction. For this purpose themapping populations developed at CIMMYT andevaluated in India under AMBIONET (Asian MaizeBiutechnologyNetwork),MaizeGeneticUnit, lARIhavebeen used. ~TL Maper version 1.0 software was usedfor the analysis and significant QTL x Environmentinteraction has been found. The QTLs for differentcharacters are detected in presence of QTL xEnvironmentinteractionby usingJackknifeand Bayesiantechniques.

28. Estimation of Agricultural Accidents inMadhya Pradesh

V. Bhushana Babu, A.K. Dubey, K.N. Agarwaland P.S.Tiwari

Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering,Bhopal

In India about 234 million workers are engaged inAgricultural and allied activities. Traditional agricultureused mainly human and animal power sources. Due tomodernization,however,mechanicaland electricalpoweris used extensivelyfor variousoperations.The populationof tractors and power tillers has crossed 2.6 and 0.1million respectively. Human power, apart from being asource of power for manually operated farm equipmentand hand tools, is also used extensively for operatingself-propelledand poweroperated agriculturalmachines.Improper and careless use of agricultural machinery hasincreased deaths and causalities due to agriculturalaccidents.Data on agriculturalaccidentsand informationon etiology of such accidents are not available and thus

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

30. Expert System on Wheat CropManagement: An IT based Tool forTransfer of TechnologyS.N. Islam, Hari Om Agarwal, M.S. Farooqi,KX. ChaturvedL Kirti Sharma, AX. Sharma,Randhir Singh, R.K. Sharma and H.S. SikarwarIndian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Delhi

One of the significant achievements of research inthe area of Information Technology has been thedevelopmentof techniques, which allow the modelingofinformation at higher levels of abstraction. Thesetechniquesare embodied in languagesor tools that allowbuilding programs resembling human logic in theirimplementation.These programs,which emulate humanexpertise in well-defined problem domains, lead in thedevelopment of expert systems. In agriculture, ExpertSystems can be used for extending the research tofarmersand can work as a problem-solvingtool for them.Expert systems on Agriculture could have a powerfulmechanismwith extensivepotentialto solvethe problemsrelated to agriculture. Expert System on Wheat CropManagement is one such example developed by thescientists of IASRI in collaboration with two premierinstitutions doing research on wheat namely DWR,Kamal and IARI, New Delhi. The system holds acollectionof generalprinciplesthat are potentiallyappliedto <;olvea problem related to wheat crop managementand extends large information to the wheat growingfarmers.

31. A Contribution to Universally Optimal OneSided Neighbour Effect Design

K.K. Singh Meitei andKumam PraphulloManipur University, Imphal

Inan agriculturaldesignof experiment,the treatmentreceived by a plot may influence the other response onthe nejghbourjngplots of asame block or it may happento affect the response on the following plot. For exampleof the second condition, the tall varieties may affect theother crops grown on the neighbouring plots by theirshades. Bailey (2003) has developed such designconcerned with the study of one sided neighbour effect,under the above mentioned second condition. This papergives a new series of Universally Optimal One-SidedNeighbour Effect Designs.

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32. An Optimum Multivariate StratifiedSampling Design: Method of PooledVariances

A.H. Ansari, Najmussehar and MJ. AhsanAligarh Muslim University, Aligarh

Although, in stratified sampling design, Neymanallocation gives an estimate of the population parameterwith maximum precision, there are certain limitationstoits practical implementation. The most serious of all isthe absence of the knowledge of the stratum standarddeviations in which case it mayturn out to be evenpoorerthan the proportionalallocation.Whenthe stratastandarddeviations are unknown but we have an additionalinformation about the equality of standard deviationbetween some of the strata, we can utilize thisinformationto increasethe precisionof the estimate.Parket al. (2007) used this idea for obtaining a "CompromiseAllocation in Univariate Stratified Sampling". In thispaper, the idea of pooling of the standard deviations isuSt:Jto work out an optimum allocation in multivariatestratified salJ~:'1ing.Asimulation study is also performedto illustrate the method.

33. Weather based Forecast Models for Potato

S.C. Mehta, Satya Pal and Amrender KumarIndian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute,New Delhi

Validated forecasts of crop yield play key role inwell-timed planning for storage, distribution, pricing,marketing,import-export,etc.Thus factorsaffectingcropyield necessitate forethought. The major causes ofvariability in crop-yield are technological factors (e.g.agricultural inputs etc.) and the weather. It has beenobserved that the technological factors increase yieldsmoothly through time and thus year-number (or someother appropriate function of time) can be used to studythe overall effect of technological d1anges on yield.Therefore, models based on weather-factorsalong witha variable year-number can provide reliable forecast ofcrop yield in advance of harvest. Variousweather-basedmodels for several crops such as rice, wheat andsugarcane etc. have already been developed. In thispaper an attempt has been made to develop forecastmodels for potatocrop. Potatoranksfourth in importanceafter rice, wheat and maize. It is the only non-cerealcrop that excels cereals in food value. The models forforecasting potato yield have been developed by usingweekly weather data and the corresponding yield data.

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The technique involved construction of suitable weatherindices. These indices along with year-number(representing effect of technological factors) were usedas regressors in the development of models. The stepwiseregression technique was used for selection of importantvariables. These models have been developed for thedistrict Agra (Uttar Pradesh) which has maximul11contribution in terms of potato-production. The weeklydata on the weather variables maximum temperature,minimum temperature, relative humidity at morning andevening pertaining to 36thto 45thstandard meteorologicalweeks (smw) for the period 1971-72 to 1998-99 and thecorresponding yield data were used for development ofmodels. The models were validated for subsequent threeyears (not included in model development). It was foundthat the forecasts, two/three weeks in advance of harvest,can be obtained which are quite close to the respectiveobserved ones in most of the cases.

34. Youden Square Designs for Complete DiallelCrosses

D.R. Aneja and Suman YadavCCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar

Diallel cross experiments are used in plant andanimalbreeding to study the combining abilities oflinesand crosses in an early generation. For 'p' inbred linesthe numberof diallel crosses in a complete diallel crosses(CDe) is p(p-l)/2 as per method-4 of Griffing (1956).With increase in number of lines or parents, the totalnumber of crosses increases rapidly leading to largerintra-blockvariancesof the randomizedcompletedblockdesigns so used. To overcome this problem incompleteblock designs likeBalancedIncompleteBlock (BIB) andPartially Balanced Incomplete Block (PBIB) designshave been suggested by various workers (Aggarwal andDas 1987, 1990; Divecha and Ghosh 1994; Prasad andGupta 2005 etc.). Sharma (2005) has suggested the useof lattice designs for the construction and analysis ofblocked CDC. It has been shown that if the specificcombiningability(sca)effectsare ignored,latticedesignsgive rise to the optimal designs (efficiency 1.0 ascompared to RBD). But for construction of CDC withthe help of lattice designs the number of parents has tobe a perfect square hence only a few designs areavailable. In this paper the construction and analysis ofan incomplete block designs with the help of YoudenSquare Designs has been suggested for CDC. Thesuggested design also retains ful1efficiency i.e. 1.0 forcomparisons of general combining ability (gca) effects,

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

if sca effects are ignored. Estimates of parameters ofinterest have been obtained by least squares techniqueand complete analysis has been done with the help ofgeneral procedure of incomplete block designs. Theexperimenter can screen a large number of lines withthe help of proposed design.The completelistof possibledesigns up to number of parents 'p' = 40 has also beengiven in the form of a table.

35. A Study of Marketing of Milk throughCooperatives in IndiaSushilaKaulIndian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Delhi

India is basically an agrarian economywith 72% ofits total population residing in rural areas. Since cropsector, in mostpart of the country is dependenton whimsof nature, so to augument the income, livelihood andnutritional security, most of the rural population takesrefuge in livestock keeping and production of milk.Livestock contributes about 27 per cent to the GDP fromagriculture. Milk is the largestcontributorto agriculturalGDP and it was more than Rs. 1,15,000 crares in2004-05.The milk group comprises close to 70% of theoutput from livestock.Dairying offers a relatively stablestream of income as compared to crop cultivation. Thescenario of daily rural milk production during 2004-05indicatedproductionof2300 lakhkg /day of milk.Out ofthis, 48% (1100 lakh kg /day) is consumed inthe villageitselfand the milksoldby ruralproducersintourbanareasis the remaining 52% i.e. 1200 lakh kg /day. Themarketable surplus handled by the unorganized sector isas high as 70% (830 lakh kg /day). Cooperatives handle1G%and private organized bodies account for the 14%0{' surp!us. Dairying in India has broad social andeconomicdimensions.It involvestens of millionsof small

farmers, each with one or two animals. Dairycooperatives generate employment opportunities foraround 12.4 million farm families. In 2005-06, averagedaily cooperative milk marketing stood at 168.06 lakhlitres; annual growth has averaged about 5.8 per centcompoundedover the last fiveyears. DairyCooperativesnow market milk in al1 metros, major cities and moretrlan 800 towns/cities. The present study has beenundertaken with the objective of analysing the growthand performance of dairy cooperatives over the years indifferent states. The data has been col1ected fromsecondary sources, published by various agencies. Thefindings of the study will provide information regarding

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

the growth and performance of the milk cooperatives indifferent states of India.

36. Rainfall based Forecast Model for Rice Yield

T. Rai

Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute,New Delhi

The forecast model for rice yield in Raipur districtof Chhattisgarh is developed on time series data from1970-71to 1994-95on the basis of aPlsuntof rainfa\1andnumberof rainy days besides linearly discriminatedweather score, along with input variables as fertilizersnutrients (N, P & K) and trend. Keeping in view of thefluctuations in rice yield due to highly variable rainfallenvironment,the development of linearly discriminantweather score is confined to amount of rainfa\1 andnumber of rainy days besides correlated weathervariablesin various phases of crop growth. The forecastmodel so developed is found to be adequate at theflowering stage and accounts for 89% of variation inrice yield due to linearly discriminated weather scoresof all phasesof crop growth except the early phase alongwith the fertilizer nutrient as Potash (K). The forecastvalue at this stage is found to be 1526 kg/ha which isvery close to the observed value of rice yield i.e. 1524kg/ha for the year 1995-96.

37. A Note on Bayes Estimator in FinitePopulation Sampling

U.C. Sud, Hukum Chandra! and LC. SethiIndian Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Delhi

The design based properties of the Bayes estimatorin the context of estimation of finite population meanhave been studied. With the help of an empirical study itis shown that the usual estimator based on simple meanvalues compares favorably vis-a-vis the Bayes estimatorin terms of the criterion of bias.

! University of Southampton, UK

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38. Optimum Size and Shape of Plot for FieldExperimentation on Irrigated Mulberry(Morus alba L.) in the Gangetic Plains ofWest Bengal

N.K; Das, A. Ghosh and AX. BajpaiCentral Sericultural Research & TrainingInstitute, Berhampore

A study was conducted at this Institute on optimumsize and shape of plot for field experimentation onirrigatedmulberry(Morusalba L.), a perennialonly foodtree/plant of Bombyx mori L., the mulberry silkworm.The objective was to increase experimental precision ofyield performance trial. For this, a big plot with we\1establishedmulberryplantationwithvarietyS1635havingspacing of 60 x 60 cmzwas taken. Individual plant wisedata on leaf yield were co\1ected from a sub-plot of7.2 x 7.2 m: containing 144(12 x 12) plants excludingborders ofthe mtlinplot. This whole experimental areawas divided in 144 basic units of size 0.36 mZeachcontaining one plant. The variability in leafyield amongthe basicunitswasmeasuredusingcoefficientof variation(CV%). The CV% ofleafyield among different plots ofa\1possible bigger sizes by combining the adjacent basicunits was also calculated.Usingthe method of maximumcurvature, it was observed that each plot forexperimentation should have a size of at least 18 mZexcluding the border plants provided the plantation,60 x 60 cmz,is of at least 2-year old. The variability wasless f0f the plots having a shape of square or slightrectangle.

39. Growth ofImportant Crops in Karnataka:A Combined and District Level AnalysisK.V. Asha Latha and A.R.S. BhatUniversity of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

Agriculture is vast ecological system. Karnataka ispredominantlyan agriculture state.24% of the total GDPcomes from agriculture. 70% of the population still inrural areas is dependent on agriculture for theirlivelihood. The secondary data on area and productionof agriculture, horticultureand plantationscrops from27districts of Karnataka state have been co\1ectedfor the

year 1990 to 2004 (15 years) from the Department ofEconomics and Statistics, Bangalore. Agro productsgrown in an area of 107.90 lakh hectares and theproduction is 92 lakh mts. Horticulture crops grown in14.27 lakh hectares and the production is 114.90 lakh

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mts. The growth rate across the district was analyzed.The area under agriculture crop decreased, whereas thearea under horticulture crops increased considerably.Horticulture area accounts for 15% of the State's grosscropped area. Total gross annual income fromhorticulture is Rs. 7152 crores which is40% of the grossannual income from combined agriculture sector. CropGrowth Rate was estimated for different agriculture,horticultureand plantationgroupsandfor individualcrops.It was an area led growth in the case of fruits whereasin vegetables, it was primarily productivity led growth.

40. Training Impact on Data Analysis usingStatistical Application Softwares

K.Y.Asha Latha, H.S. Vijaykumar andP.A. Katarki

University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwad

Use of Information Technology in acquiringknowledge and skills has become an essential elementin education and training. The use of computing andcommunication technology to enhance the efficacy oftransaction and productivity is the driving force of thisnew era of social and economic transformation in the

modemsocietycalledInformationSociety.Collectionandgeneration of data and analysis are the major activitiesinApplied Statistics. Statistical analysis has become anintegral part of almost all research programmes. Theadvances in computer technology lead to developmentof a number of Statistical Application Softwares.Software Package for Statistical Solutions (SPSS),MSTATC, MS Excel & Design were taught to 35teachers for 5days duration. Five staffmembers(startingfrom Research Associate to Professor cadre) from 7Departments of Social Science were selected for thetraining programme, thus constituting a heterogeneousgroup. Respondents had an access to computer but werenot aware of the statistical packages and also had poorknowledge about usage of statistical tools (tests).Knowledge about statistical tools and packages haveimproved significantly at the end of the trainingprogramme. Before the training, none of them wereaware of MSTATCpackage. After the training 75% ofthem showed inclination towards this. 35% of the

participants had poor knowledge about MS-Excel &SPSS (before the training) which has improvedconsiderably.All of them showed interest in SPSS.

JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

41. Some Investigations on MixtureExperiments in Agriculture

Krishan Lal, Y.K. Sharma, P.K. Batra andL.M. Bhar

Indian'Agricultural Statistics ResearchInstitute, New Delhi

A mixture experiment involves the study vfperformance of various mixtures formed by mixing twoor more components called ingredients. Let Xirepresentsthe proportion of ithingredient in a mixture, 0 ::;Xi::; 1,

q

i = 1, ..., q then in mixture experiments LXi =1, where

q is the number of components. In mixtu~t!experiments,the factors are ingredients of a mixture and their levelsare not independent. Some of the situations in agriculturewhere these designs could be advantageously used aresplit application of fertilizers, intercropping experiments,sensory evaluation experiments, preparation of fertilizers,insecticides/pesticides mixtures, feeding trials in animalnutritional experiments, etc. Scheffe (1958, 1963) gavesimplex lattice and simplex centroid designs forexperiments with mixtures. In this article, an attempt hasbeen made to compare the efficiencies between thedesigns given by Scheffe and some of the mixtureexperiments used in agriculture. Some efficient mixturedesigns have also been obtained by combinatorics.

42. Growth and Constraints of Tasar Raw SilkProduction in Jharkhand

Suresh Rai, B.M.K. Singh, S.N. Sinhadeo,Ram Nagina and N. SuryanarayanaCentral Tasar Research and Training Institute,Ranchi

Jharkhand remained the leading state of India intasar raw silk production since independence due toavailability ofluxuriant forest having adequate food plants,long tradition of tasar culture with tribal families, presenceof several clusters of hand looms producing tasar yam &fabric and involvement of middlemen at different stagesof production & marketing. On 15thN ov' 2000 Jharkhandwas carved out of Bihar and more than 90% of tasar

cocoon producing area came under Jharkhand and morethan 90% oflooms went to Bihar. As such the productionof undivided Bihar can be considered as the productionof Jharkhand. Jharkhand contributed 34.29% of national

production oftasar raw silk followed by Chhattisgarh-31.43% and Orissa -10 %, whereas contribution of Biharafter its division remained to only 3.14%. Since

ABSTRACTS OF PAPERS

independencethe tasar silkproduction inthe state (unitedBihar before Nov'2000 and thereafter Jharkhand) hasseen several ups and downs though there existed plentyof natural resources and manpower. The lowestproduction was 43 MT in 1952-53 and highest of438 MT in 1986-87 followed by persistent decline.Several developmental programmes were launched toaccelerate the production but the growth rate could notbe sustained. Tasar production trend needs to beexamined in view of potentiality of rural employment.The investigation elaborates the growth pattern and theplanners may utilize the informaL~on for futureprogrammes. The present study is for the period of1951-52 to 2006-07 and the data were collected from

Technical and Annual Reports of Central Silk Board,Govt. ofIndia. Based on mathematical trend the period'was divided into three phases as phase I: 1951-52 to1970-71,phaseII: 1971-72to1990-91and phaseIII: 1991-92 to 2006-07. The trend was also visualized for wholeperiod of study i.e. 1951-52 to 2006-07. The growthbehavior was analyzed with the help of exponentialfunction Y = a.bl using least square method. The trendanalysisfor the studyperiodswerecarriedoutusinglinearand non-linear models. It was observed that productiontrend wasdifferent for differenttime periods.The growthrate for phase I, II and III was 6.51%, 2.80% and -5.82%. On clubbing the three phases a slow growth rateof 1.82% was visible. The constraints for slo.wgrowthrate needs to be explored and explained for takingeffective and corrective measures. The constraints arediscontinuance of traditional seed system, inadequaciesin the Government seed policy, decline in eco-raceproduction due to over exploitation, low productivity ofplantation raised under different schemes,deforestation,deficient extension support from Governmentorganization for seed, technology and marketing,subsidiary nature of tasar industry, disinterested younggenerationdue to lowand unpredictablereturns and poorexploitationof internationalmarkets.Toaddress referredconstraintsoftasar silk industrythere isa need to developnew strategies for reaching new height of production.

43. Analysis on Rice Area, Production andProductivity during 2002 Drought indifferent Districts of various States in Indiaand Strategies for Increasing RiceProduction

Vanshidhar and B.N. SinghBirsa Agricultural University, Ranchi

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Rice production in Indiadeclinedfrom93.3.milliontons to 72.6 million tons during 2002 drought fromprevious year of maximum production. The decline inproduction was observed during both kharif and boro/summer season rice crops. The states like Punjab,Jharkhand,and other minor ricegrowingstates and unionterritory like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Sikkim,Pondicherry, Goa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, andDaman & Diu were not affected and had higher riceproduction. Boro/summer rice production also declinedin almost all states due to lack of enough water inreservoirs.Districts wise data analysesshows thatexceptin Punjab, drought affected the area, production andproductivity in different districts inthree differentways.Initial drought in June-July reduced the area andproduction both (Type I); mid season drought inAugust-September did not reduce the area but production andproductivity were reduced (Type II).Both early and midseason drought affected the area, production andproductivity (Type III). Type I drought was mainly instates of Andhm Pradesh, Karnataka,Tamil Nadu,Haryana, Uttarakhand, Western and Central UttarPradesh, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Type II droughtwas in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, HimachalPradesh, Orissa, and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, andType III was drought in Rajasthan. The districts withhigherproductivitylevelineachstatehavebeenidentified.There isneed to develop national, state and district levelplans to mitigate the drought damage in future andproduce enough rice to meet the consumers and exportdemands. Special package of seed, fertilizer, irrigation,pesticides, and implements should be provided in suchdistricts. Large parboiling units need to be established inAssam for increasing boro rice acreage. Droughtresistant varici.ies and its integrated crop productiontechnology need to be implemented in each districts forhouseholdfood security,and marketablesurplusfor urbanconsumers and export. Drought resistant variety likeVandana should be promoted on large scale throughminikits. Hybrid rice has better drought resistance thanconventional varieties and its seed production should beundertaken. SRI technology with hybrid rice needspromotion on large scale. Extensive farmers managedon-farm trials are needed to convince the large numbersof traditional framers for new varieties and productiontechnologies.