Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
This communication is intended for investment professionals only and must not be relied on by anyone else.
Absolute Return Investing: wahre Diversifikation
und robuste Portfolio Konstruktion
Dr Jens Kroeske PRM FRM
Quantitative Investment Manager
Hamburg
September 2015
Standard Life Investments weltweit
• Standard Life Investments wurde 1998
als eigenständiges Unternehmen
gegründet
• Standard Life Versicherungsgruppe
wurde 1825 gegründet
• €352,8 Mrd. Vermögen unter Verwaltung
• 570 Investmentspezialisten
• 930 weitere Investment Mitarbeiter
• Zentrale in Edinburgh
• Weitere Büros in
Boston
Dublin
Frankfurt
London
Toronto
Tokyo**Wechselkurs £1:€1.411506 per 30 Juni 2015
* Joint Venture mit HDFC Asset Management
** Strategic Partnership mit Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Limited
Quelle: Standard Life Investments, 30 Juni 2015
Hong Kong
Sydney
Beijing
Seoul
Mumbai*
2
Multi-Asset Investing Team
* Basiert in Nordamerika ** Basiert in Hong Kong
GARS Portfolio Konstrukteure
Reale Renditen und Zins Teams produzieren Makro Analysen, die das GARS Portfolio beeinflussen aber nicht direkt steuern, daher werden diese Teams nicht zur Anzahl
der am GARS Produkt beteiligten Spezialisten dazugezählt und sind grau hinterlegt
Quelle: Standard Life Investments, 31 Juli 2015
Critical combination of skills and experience
MAI Team Mitglieder: Anzahl BereichDurchschnittliche
Erfahrung in Branche
Durchschnittliche Erfahrung bei
Standard Life Investments
Ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen 10 Globale Strategie 15 6
Risikoanalyse 11 Multi-Asset Risiko & Konstruktion 13 8
Entwicklung von Ideen und Umsetzung 26 Multi-Asset Management & Umsetzung 18 10
Kommunikation 10 Multi-Asset Investment -Spezialisten 19 6
SenioritätGröße Stärke
Leiter Multi-Asset and Makro Investments
Multi-Asset Risiko und Konstruktion
Guy Stern CFA
Multi-Asset / Makro Portfolio Management
Multi-Asset Business Management
Zinsen & Reale Renditen
Multi-Asset
Globale Strategie Multi-Asset Investment Spezialisten
Multi-Asset Umsetzung
Jason Hepner CFADr Anne Friel PRM
Dr Brian Fleming CFA PRM
Dr Robert de Roeck
Dr Jens Kroeske PRM FRM
Malin Nairn
James Esland CFA
Philip Laing
Roger Sadewsky
Colette Conboy
Scott Smith CFASebastian Mackay
Murray Forbes
Adam Rudd CFA
David Sol
Owen McCrossan FIA Richard Martin FIA
Neil Richardson
Naglis Vysniauskas
Katy Forbes CFA
Adam Skerry
Tom Walker
Aaron Rock
Jack Kelly
Liam O’Donnell CFA
Ross Hutchison
Dougie Smyth CFA
Norest Zvavamwe CFA
Christopher Nichols FIA
Malcolm Jones FFA
David Bint
Scott Kay
William Martinez CFA
Tam McVie*
Stuart Peskin CFA*
Rebecca Nichols FIA*
Jason Yu CFA**
Dongyue Zhang FSA CFA**
David Kirkpatrick
Audrey Simpson Alex Berry
Jennifer Catlow CFA
Stephen KerrKevin Hogg
Harry Barnes
Kenny MacMaster
Andrew Milligan
Frances Hudson
Craig Hoyda
Govinda Finn
Harry Smith
Jeremy Lawson
Alex Wolf
James McCann
Stephanie Kelly
Abdel Chabi-YoLynne Provan
Andy McNeillGraeme Lindsay
Nicholas HutchingsMark Holden
Vincent Ropers
Hanyi ChenGerry Fowler CFA
Dr Chris Faulkner –
MacDonagh
3
Buy portfolio insurance or diversify?
• Historically you would
have needed to pay 1.8%
per quarter,
on average, to cap losses
at 5%
• Tail protection is too
expensive over the long
run
• Diversification is a much
more efficient way to deal
with tail risk
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Life Investments, May 2015 4
But diversification can be hard to achieve
• We have seen a
significant difference in
performance of equity
markets in recent times
• But: Investors lost
between 40 and 60%
regardless of the equity
market in 2007 to 2009
Source: Bloomberg, Standard Life Investments, June 2015 5
Unstable risk characteristics
Correlation of Global Equities with other market sectors
Analysis based on weekly returns
Source: MSWRLDL(RI) MSCI world, JPM GBI-EM, S&P GSCI Commodity Index, ML Global High yield, ML Global Broad Corp, ELUK Index, FXJPEMCI Index; Bloomberg,
Datastream, Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2015 6
And bond yields bottoming out – which way next?
• Over 100 years UK bonds have
outperformed cash by 0.5% on
average
• However this hides periods of
extreme volatility
• 1950-1980: Bonds
underperformed cash by nearly
2%
• 1980-2014: Bonds
outperformed cash by around
3%
UK bond yields through history
Bonds cycles can be long and varied – bull market coming to an end?
Source: Standard Life Investments, Global Financial Data, 30 June 2015
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1866 1886 1906 1926 1946 1966 1986 2006 2026
Yie
ld (
%)
Long-term Gilt Yield Scenario 1: Deflation
Scenario 2: Weak Recovery Scenario 3: Inflation
Inflation
Weak Recovery
Deflation
7
Philosophie
Grundsätze:
Langfristige Markteinschätzungen führen zu positiven Investmentergebnissen
Viele Investoren haben einen kurzfristigen Zeithorizont
Dies führt zu Marktineffizienzen über 2-5 Jahres-Zeithorizonte
Gründliche analysierende, kreative und geduldige Anleger können dies ausnutzen
Wir können Rendite bringende, risikoarme Portfolien mit längerfristigen Strategien
konstruieren
Wir verbinden viele Strategien und können es uns erlauben, geduldig zu sein
Kurzfristig entwickeln diese sich unterschiedlich, die meisten sollten erfolgreich sein
Im Ergebnis führt dies zu geringem Risiko im Portfolio bei attraktivem Renditepotenzial
Ansatz:
Wir konstruieren robuste Portfolien für zahlreiche Szenarien
Wir erwarten in unserem Basisszenario für zukünftige Marktbedingungen signifikante Renditen für
alle unsere Strategien über einen 3-Jahreszeitraum
Unsere Selektionskriterien fokussieren auf solche Strategien, die auch dann positive Renditen
erzielen, wenn unser Basisszenario falsch ist
Wenn also einige Strategien enttäuschen, werden andere dies durch überdurchschnittliche
Wertentwicklung kompensieren
Wir achten stark auf die Vermeidung konzentrierter Risiken8
Standard Life Staff Pension Scheme
• Background
80% Funded DB plan in 2005
Deficit reduction plan
Drive to reduce risk and burden on sponsor
• Genesis of GARS
Examination of risk drivers
The majority of the SL Pension Scheme assets are
invested in the GARS Strategy
• Transparency and Liquidity
Transparent positioning
Liquid instruments
Safety-first approach
Counterparty selection and diversification
Daily collateralisation
Cash / G7 Government securities only
Daily priced and daily dealing
GARS has full commitment and conviction across Standard Life Group
GARS
Traditional
Equity-heavy
Portfolio
9
Our key multi-asset capabilities
Return target is gross of fees, annualised, evaluated over rolling 3 year periods
Risk measure is annualised volatility. * After institutional fee rebate
Appealing options with established pedigree
Absolute Bonds
(ARGBS/GCAR)
Global Absolute
Return Strategies
(GARS)
Global Focused
Strategies (GFS)
Enhanced
Diversification
Growth Fund (EDGF)
Return target Cash + 3% Cash + 5% Cash + 7.5%Equity-like returns over
the market cycle
Expected volatility 2% to 4% (<5%) 4% to 8% 6% to 12%2/3 the risk of
Equity markets
Ideas universe• Bonds & FX
• Macro
• Multi-asset
• Macro
• Multi-asset
• Macro and Micro
• Multi-asset core
• Macro
Availability Global GlobalGlobal ex-US
Institutional only
UK OEIC &
Custom/Localised
Institutional fee 45bps* 85bps 120bps 50bps
• Broad investment freedom – multiple opportunities irrespective of the environment
• Risk-based portfolio construction – ensures a robust portfolio
• Longer investment time horizon – exploits established inefficiencies
10
Investment ansatz
Eine große Bandbreite an Renditemöglichkeiten
Dauerhafte Vielfalt – durch ein größeres Spektrum an Möglichkeiten
Markt
• Dynamische Allokation
• Langfristige Risikoprämien,
z.Bsp. Aktien,
Unternehmensanleihen,
Immobilienaktien
• Werden nur eingesetzt bei
erwartetem Ertrag auf 3-
Jahressicht
Einzeltitelauswahl
• Aktive Einzeltitelauswahl
• Konventionelle Benchmarks
• Bottom-up, Focus on Change Prozess
Relativer Wert
• Suche nach Paaren eng verbundener
Märkte oder Segmente
• Nach unserer Einschätzung wird
Wertentwicklung der Paarbestandteile
über 3 Jahre unterschiedlich sein
• Gewinn aus unterschiedlicher
Wertentwicklung unabhängig von
Marktrichtung
Direktional
• Spezifische direktionale
Investmentideen
• In Märkten mit geringen oder keinen
langfristigen Risikoprämien
• Signifikantes Renditepotential auf 3-
Jahressicht
T
R
A
D
I
T
I
O
N
E
L
L
M
O
D
E
R
N
11
Investment prozess
Integriert in komplette Investmentkompetenz von Standard Life Investments
Fundamentale
wirtschaftliche
Analyse
Spezialisten-
Meinungen
und
Strategien
Quantitative
Modelle
Bewertungs-
modelle
Multi Asset Risiko und Strukturierung
Prä-Transaktionsrisiko Diversifikations-Beitrag Szenario-Analyse
Strategic Investment Group• Überprüfung
• Diskussion
• Zustimmung /
Absage
Überzeugung
Diversifikation
Liquidität
Entwicklung von Ideen
Selektion
UmsetzungMulti Asset Management
Umsetzung der Strategie Bestimmung der Positionsgröße Handel
Investment
Organisation &
Überwachung
• Unabhängige
Risikoanalyse
• Handelspartner
Risiko-
Management
• Investment
Governance
12
Wesentliche merkmale unserer portfolios
Ausnutzen von bekannten Marktineffizienzen
Positive Ergebnisse überwiegen
Geringe Umschlagshäufigkeit / Kosten
Beständig diversifiziert
Große Bandbreite an ertragsbringenden Strategien
Gute Entwicklung in verschiedenen Szenarien
Transparenz / Kontrolle
Risiken im Portfolio und Ertragsquellen – umfassend und präzise
Reguliertes Investmentvehikel, bekannte Fondsstruktur
Investierbar / Liquide
Fonds ist ohne Einschränkungen täglich handelbar
Unterliegende Vermögensgegenstände sind sehr liquide
Gute Ergänzung zu bestehendem Portfolio
Niedrig korreliert zu traditionellen Investments
13
Building a resilient portfolio
Risk management
Three stages of risk management:
(1) Independent risk modelling using APT system (ex-ante risk)
Daily risk reporting
Basis for pre-trade risk analysis
(2) Scenario analysis
Historical extreme events using RiskMetrics
Future extreme events modelled internally
(3) Realised volatility based on performance (ex-post risk)
15
Risk profiles show diversification effect
• The portfolios are exposed to multiple & diverse market risks
• Total stand-alone investment risk that is deployed to seek returns is commensurate
with the performance objective
• Independent risk analysis shows the benefits of investment diversification
Source: Standard Life Investments GCAR, GARS and GFS portfolios, 30 June 2015 16
Mitigating Model Risk
• Official risk system is supplemented by an internal risk model.
• Each strategy is represented by a combination of time series, and current exposures:
• The model covers a longer time period than standard risk model (14 years vs 3-5 years)
• Used for monitoring:
ex-ante volatility on range of bases
unusual behaviour (v-masks, turbulence)
changes in correlation
variety of diversification measures
• Underpins forward-looking scenario analysis
• Allows behaviour of current strategies throughout 14yr window to be examined
• Basis of ‘sand-box’ for quickly risk-testing exposure changes
Source: Standard Life Investments, June 2015
Understanding risk model limitations is key
Two-way check
against official
risk model
17
Scenario Analysis
• Scenario analysis is used to explore tail risks
Conventional risk systems are calibrated using recent history only
Value-at-risk is a poor representation of tail behaviour
Scenarios should focus on potential portfolio weaknesses, not spurious accuracy
• We look at different types of scenarios
Historical scenarios using RiskMetrics
Large scenario library
Creation of bespoke scenarios
Forward-looking scenarios
Internally modelled
Guided by qualitative expert judgement
Non-traditional stress scenarios
Derivative positions
Counterparties
Better to be approximately right than exactly wrong 18
-28 -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Black Monday 1987
Gulf War 1990
Rate Rise 1994
Mexican Crisis 1995
Asian Crisis 1997
Russian/LTCM
Tech Wreck (April 07 - 14, 2000)
Sept 11th
Equity Sell-Off (August 23 - October 09, 2002)
Equity Rally (October 10 - November 27, 2002)
Gulf War 2 (March 01 - 23, 2003)
Bond Rally (May 01 - June 13, 2003)
Bond Sell-Off (June 14 - July 31, 2003)
Emerging Market Sell-Off 2006 (May 01 - June 08, 2006)
Subprime Debacle 2007 (July 15 - August 15, 2007)
Bank Meltdown 2008 (September 12 - October 15, 2008)
Euro Crisis (July 22 - August 23, 2011)
QE jitters (May 22 - June 24, 2013)
% Move
Historical Scenarios - GFS
* MSCI World Returns prior to 2000 denoted in European Currency Units, except for 1987 which is denoted in German Marks
Source: RiskMetrics, 30 June 2015
Less than half the drawdowns under severe historical stresses
MSCI World (EUR)* GFS Current Portfolio
19
Future scenario analysis
Shaded regions represent the origin of one or more scenarios
Source: Standard Life Investments, June 2015
Modelling techniques can help identify potential concentrations of investment risk
Some scenarios currently of interest:
• Acropolis now
• Cold war 2
• Inflation shocker
• China crisis
• Crunch-time in EM
• The Bundesbank strikes back
• Deflation starts race to the bottom
20
Practical Example GARS: China crisis
Source: Standard Life Investments, June 2015
Focus on potential portfolio weaknesses, not spurious numerical accuracy
Key Factor(examples)
Shock(estimates)
HSI Index -60%
Australian Dollar -15%
Oil Price -47%
CDX HY +400bp
Scenario Impact Estimate
Global Equities -29.8%
GARS -5.8%
Description
Property market slowdown causes growth to drop sharply
Fixed asset investment deteriorates
Labour market strained, wage growth and consumption slows
Risk of banking crises as defaults rise
Social/political unrest as confidence in government breaks down
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Equity GARS
21
Practical Example GCAR: Inflation shocker
Source: Standard Life Investments, March 2015
Focus on potential portfolio weaknesses, not spurious numerical accuracy
Key Factor(examples)
Shock(estimates)
2 Year US Yield +250 bps
10 Year US Yield +150 bps
S&P 500 -20%
USD vs EM +20%
Scenario Impact Estimate
iBoxx Eur Corp -5.9%
GCAR +1.9%
DescriptionUS wage and core inflation pressures rise sharply
Fed tightens policy more aggressively than expected
Capital outflows from EM
0,00%
2,00%
4,00%
6,00%
8,00%
10,00%
12,00%
14,00%
16,00%ARGBS Iboxx Euro Corp
22
Ex-post risk analysis
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio; Datastream MSWRLDL(RI), MSWRLD$(RI)~£; SunGard Advanced portfolio technologies (APT), 30 June 2015
• Expected volatility range of 4 – 8%
• We track realised volatility relative to
expectation and to risk model estimates
• Many different bases can be used:
monthly, weekly, daily data
various window sizes and weightings
• Measuring relative to equities is a useful way to
normalise
• We expect to be 1/3 to 1/2 of equity volatility
• Equity volatility depends on the perspective: in
currency hedged or unhedged terms
23
Summary
Herausforderung:
• Wie kann echte Portfolio Diversifikation erziehlt werden?
Grundsätze:
Langfristiger Anlagehorizont
Breites Anlageuniversum
Diszipliniertes Risikomanagement
24
Appendices
V-masks for individual positions and overall
Short-term v-masks
(zero return, exponentially weighted, half-life = 3m, 99% confidence),
1 year of daily data
Source: Standard Life Investments, 03 July 2015 26
Financial Turbulence – Measuring the Unusual
• An extension to the v-mask methodology
• Monitors unusual behaviour:
Strategy returns (like V-masks)
Co-movements
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 30 June 2015
+0.5%
-0.5%
S&P 500 FTSE 100
Unusual+0.5%
-0.5%
Usual
S&P 500 FTSE 100
Unusual co-movements do not necessarily
correspond to big moves
The numbers above the bars are the z-scores of the strategies in isolation, based on the
previous days moves. The colour of the bar corresponds to the direction of the move -
green for positive, red for negative. The bar heights show which strategies contributed
the most to the overall unusualness score.
27
Der Global Absolute Return Strategies Fonds
Anlageziel:
• Euribor + 5% pro Jahr Renditeziel (brutto, im gleitenden 3-Jahresdurchschnitt)
• Erwartete Schwankungsbreite: 4% bis 8%
Schlüsselfaktoren:
• Zeitrahmen: 3-Jahres Investmentperspektive
Geduldige Anleger können von ineffizienten Märkten profitieren
• Breites Instrumentarium: Große Anlagefreiheit
Verschiedene Investmentstrategien bilden ein robustes Portfolio
Generierung von Ideen, Analyse von Risiken und Fondsmanagement sind in einem
erfahrenen Team integriert
• Ausgewogenheit: Risiko-kontrollierte Umsetzung
Auswahl der Strategien basiert auf Rendite, Diversifikation und Liquidität
Konstruktion von widerstandsfähigen Portfolien, die in verschiedenen Szenarien ein
positives Ergebnis erzielen
28
Wertentwicklung
* Quelle: Standard Life Investments, umgerechnete € Performance von £, Inst. Pooled Pension Portfolio bis 26/01/2011. GARS SICAV Portfolio Wertentwicklung vom
27/01/2011 bis zum 31/07/2015. ** Quelle: Thomson Datastream, 6 Monats Euribor. Wechselkurs £1:€1.41241 per 31/07/2015
Standard Life Investments ist in Übereinstimmung mit den “Global Investment Performance Standards” (GIPS®). Obige fondsspezifische Daten sind eine ergänzende
Information zum Euro GARS GIPS® Composite Report, der im Anhang enthalten ist
Positive Renditen bei geringem Risiko in schwierigen Marktphasen
• Euribor + 5% p.a. Zielrendite6 Monats Euribor +5% p.a. vor Kosten
• €14,1 Mrd. SICAV Fondsvermögen(per 31/07/2015)
• 1500+ institutionelle Kunden weltweit(in allen GARS Portfolien per 31/07/2015)
• 7,9% Rendite p.a. brutto(seit Auflage bis 31/07/2015)
• 5,4% Volatilität(Annualisierte Kennzahl, auf Basis monatlicher Renditen, vom 01/07/2006
bis zum 31/07/2015)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
Price (
indexed t
o 1
00 a
t in
ception)
Cash (Euribor)** Target Return € GARS (gross)*
29
Risikovergleich
* Quelle: Standard Life Investments, umgerechnete netto € Wertentwicklung des £ Fund bis zum 26/01/2011. GARS SICAV Wertentwicklung seit 27/01/2011 bis zum
31/07/2015. ** Quelle: FactSet, MSCI World €. Quelle: Standard Life Investments, netto Wertentwicklung vom 12/06/2006 zum 31/07/2015
Quelle: Standard Life Investments, 31/07/2015
Rendite mit weniger Risiko
• Volatilität:
GARS 5,4%
Aktien Global 12,9%(annualisiert, auf Basis monatlicher Daten vom 01/07/2006 bis
31/07/2015)
• Maximaler Wertverlust:
GARS -14,3%
Aktien Global -52,9%(auf Basis täglicher Daten bis zum 31/07/2015)
• VaR (95%, wöchentlich):
GARS -1,3%
Aktien Global -3,8%(auf Basis wöchentlicher Daten bis zum 31/07/2015)
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
175
185
195
205
215
225
Price (
indexed t
o 1
00 a
t in
ception)
Global Equities** € GARS (net)*
30
Global Focused Strategies Fund
* Cash is defined as 6 month EURIBOR
Source: Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2015
A distinct and complementary investment proposition
• Our Multi-Asset capabilities are all based on:
Objectives aligned with our clients’ needs
Collaborative / broad research platform
Rigorous risk-based portfolio construction
…enabling strong and consistent performance and risk
• GFS extends our capability with a distinct and complementary proposition:
Enhanced absolute return objective: Cash* +7.5% annualised, on a three year rolling basis
Attractive risk, expected volatility: 6% to 12%
Regulated SICAV structure: Broad availability, liquidity, multiple currencies
• 3 additional sources of added value:
Enhanced Macro Strategies
Focused Macro Strategies
Granular thematic stock-specific strategies
31
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%GFS cumulative modelportfolio
Cash +7.5% cumulativemodel portfolio
GFS
cumulative
live portfolio
Cash +7.5%
cumulative live
portfolio
GFS launch and development
* Gross cumulative representative performance, GBP, 30 November 2013
** From 01 July 2012 to 30 November 2013
Source: Standard Life Investments, gross representative performance, EUR, 30 June 2015
GFS was a paper-based portfolio for illustrative purposes only from 01 July 2012 to 30 November 2013
Active GFS paper portfolio
July 2012 to 30 November 2013
Cumulative return of 17.4%*
Volatility of 4.3%**
Fund launch
11 December 2013 SICAV (UCITS IV)
Extensive international support,
over €110m at launch
Established interest among clients and
research process established with major
consultants: >€400m of additional
subscriptions to date
Prices (£) Bloomberg: SLGFDHC LX Equity
GBP, USD, EUR, CAD and SEK share
classes
Monthly performance
GFS cumulative live
portfolio
32
Dynamic diversification
Source: Standard Life Investments UK GARS portfolio, 31 December 2006 to 30 June 2015
Market returnsDirectionalRelative ValueSecurity Selection
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q4 06 Q4 07 Q4 08 Q4 09 Q4 10 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15
Sh
are
of
Vo
lati
lity
33
H2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equities 2.0% Equities 3.2% Duration 9.4% Credit 7.0% Duration 6.7%
Duration 1.8% Cash 1.4% Volatility 4.0% Equities 3.7% Equities 2.4%
Security Selection 1.1% Duration 1.3% Cash 1.5% Currencies 3.4% Credit 1.5%
Credit 0.6% Security Selection 1.0% Credit 0.8% Inflation 2.7% Currencies 1.2%
Cash 0.5% Inflation 0.8% Security Selection -0.6% Volatility 1.1% Cash 0.1%
Inflation 0.3% Currencies 0.4% Inflation -2.1% Duration 1.0% Real Estate 0.0%
Volatility 0.2% Credit 0.3% Real Estate -2.3% Cash 0.4% Inflation 0.0%
Real Estate 0.0% Volatility 0.2% Currencies -4.2% Security Selection -0.6% Security Selection -0.4%
Currencies 0.0% Real Estate -0.1% Equities -10.1% Real Estate -0.7% Volatility -0.6%
Total Euro 6.9% 7.3% -4.5% 20.1% 11.3%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Duration 3.6% Credit 4.4% Equities 3.6% Currencies 3.3%
Inflation 1.2% Duration 1.8% Currencies 1.7% Equities 1.5%
Volatility 1.2% Equities 1.2% Credit 0.9% Duration 1.1%
Cash 0.3% Security Selection 0.8% Security Selection 0.8% Credit 0.7%
Real Estate 0.0% Inflation 0.6% Duration 0.5% Real Estate 0.6%
Currencies -0.2% Cash 0.2% Real Estate 0.4% Cash 0.2%
Credit -0.3% Real Estate 0.1% Cash 0.3% Inflation 0.0%
Equities -0.8% Volatility -0.1% Inflation -0.1% Security Selection -0.2%
Security Selection -1.3% Currencies -0.6% Volatility -0.4% Volatility -0.5%
Total Euro 4.2% 8.4% 7.4% 6.5%
GARS – finding positive strategies in all markets
GARS strategy group contributors by calendar year
Balance: well diversified set of individual strategies within the broader groups
Source Standard Life Investments, 31 December 2014 (€)
Currencies 3.3%
Equities 1.5%
Duration 1.1%
Credit 0.7%
Real Estate 0.6%
Cash 0.2%
Inflation 0.0%
Security Selection -0.2%
Volatility -0.5%
34
1 year cumulative performance attribution
Source: Standard Life Investments GARS SICAV portfolio, 30 June 2015 35
Entwicklung der Vermögen in der GARS Strategie
€1.1bn
€1.4bn
€2.1bn
€3.3bn
€5.3bn
€6.2bn
€7.2bn
€8.7bn
€13.3bn
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
Jun 0
6
De
z 0
6
Jun 0
7
De
z 0
7
Jun 0
8
De
z 0
8
Jun 0
9
De
z 0
9
Jun 1
0
De
z 1
0
Jun 1
1
De
z 1
1
Jun 1
2
De
z 1
2
Jun 1
3
De
z 1
3
Jun 1
4
De
z 1
4
Jun 1
5
SL Pension Scheme GARS UK Pooled Offshore Pooled N. American Pooled GARS SICAV
Quelle: Standard Life Investments, 30. Juni 2015
€m
illio
ns
3.8% 9.6% 17.2% 14.9% -9.6%30.3% 16.8%
65.9%
43.4%18.3%
27.7%
30.9%
29.4%
25.0%
13.5%
12.2%
% Wachstum der Vermögen
19.0%
27.7%
36
Diverse client base
A conversion rate of £1:€1.41151 as at 30 June 2015 has been used
Source: Standard Life Investments, 30 June 2015
Client Types:
Defined Benefit Pension Plans
Defined Contribution Pension Plans
Charities / Endowments / Foundations
Retail investments
Client Diversity:
Only 4 institutional pooled clients over €250m
The largest single pooled client has c.€300m invested
Investment rationale:
Equity replacement / DGF / Risk Parity
Alternative asset / Global Macro / GTAA, with benefits
Sustain income and real value of principle
Euro Millions
UK Pooled 36,475
SICAV 13,291
Offshore Fund 2,608
Separate US Accounts 7,776
Strategic Investment Allocation Fund 1,512
Standard Life Staff Scheme 5,677
TOTAL 67,339
37
The information shown relates to the past. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of investment can go down as well as up.
Any data contained herein which is attributed to a third party ("Third Party Data") is the property of (a) third party supplier(s) (the “Owner”) and is licensed for use by Standard
Life**. Third Party Data may not be copied or distributed. Third Party Data is provided “as is” and is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. To the extent permitted by
applicable law, none of the Owner Standard Life** or any other third party (including any third party involved in providing and/or compiling Third Party Data) shall have any
liability for Third Party Data or for any use made of Third Party Data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Neither the Owner nor any other third party sponsors,
endorses or promotes the fund or product to which Third Party Data relates.
**Standard Life means the relevant member of the Standard Life group, being Standard Life plc together with its subsidiaries, subsidiary undertakings and associated
companies (whether direct or indirect) from time to time."
Standard Life Investments Limited is registered in Scotland (SC123321) at 1 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 2LL.
Standard Life Investments Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Calls may be monitored and/or recorded to protect both you and us and help with our training.
www.standardlifeinvestments.com
© 2015 Standard Life, images reproduced under licence
38