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18 November 2015
Absa Agri Outlook 2016
Presented By Ernst Janovsky
Wessel Lemmer Karabo Takadi Julie Hayward
Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.
2 2
Agenda
Current trends to consider - Ernst Janovsky Economic outlook - Ernst Janovsky Africa trends - Ernst Janovsky & Karabo Takadi Field Crop outlook - Wessel Lemmer Horticulture outlook - Wessel Lemmer Livestock outlook - Ernst Janovsky & Julie Hayward
3 3
Current trends to consider 1. Technology to reshape Companies and Countries
• Education gap to shrink (cheaper & best in class) • Work skill competition to increase (Middle class to exceed 3,5 billion in 2050 ) • Companies to deliver personalized value to individuals • Marketing to move to one to one • Changing companies to become proactive
2. Demand shift from West to East • Diffusion of power in world USA produced 50% of GDP 35 year ago now only
22% 3. Social risk to reshape Companies and Countries
4 4
Climatic trends
5 5
Land price trends
1. Growth in fix asset prices expected to slow down due to: • Lower net farm income growth • A weakening debt to fix asset
ratio hampering access to credit
• A further expectation that the drought my continue
• Unfriendly land reform policies creating uncertainties
• Expected increase in interest rate making investors more careful
2. Net farm income to improve after the effect of lower volumes due to drought this is further complemented by expected increases in commodity prices due to a expected further weakening in the exchange rate
3. Agricultural Input cost to continue to grow faster than inflation due to a weakening of the rand
6 6
International commodity prices trends
Slow recovery surplus capacity > 4% world GDP growth (Capitalism)
Slow recovery Surplus capacity
> 4% world GDP growth
Industrialisation
Ener
gy c
risis
Ira
q / I
ran
Fina
ncia
l cr
isis
Fall of Communism as economic system in the world Berlin wall ‘98 / Hong Kong ‘99
Two commodity price shifts over the past 60 years ended by two economic crises
7 7
Terms of trade to continue to weaken
8
Economic trends and competitiveness
9 9
Cost of capital to increase
1. Capital markets decline - Aging West • Less innovative Slower growth • Pension fond contribution to decline
(1950 16:1 worker :retiree, 2050 < 2:1)
2. Pressure to hike interest rates
from BOP
3. Pressure from imported and administrative inflation to hike
4. Growth in money in circulation (M3 money) is below Reserve Bank target this is clear indication of the Consumer been under pressure
10 10
Agricultural production opportunity
11 11
Africa investment realities
12
Africa review
Karabo Takadi
13
Sub-Saharan countries
GDP size: Nigeria:574US$b-493US$b Zambia: 26.6US$b-24.47US$b GDP growth YoY: Nigeria 6-31%-3.95% Zambia: 5.63%-4.28%
14 14
Country brief overview
• Namibia
• Zambia
• Zimbabwe
• Kenya
15 15
Namibia
• Cereal production lower • Increased imports • Higher prices • Cost squeeze in livestock &
poultry • Producers marketing
proactively due to drought. • Export opportunities, Namibia
signed an agreement with China for bone in beef exports.
• Condition-cattle must be reared in FMD free zone
• FMD detected in May (restriction on marketing)
• Control measures effectively implemented
16 16
Namibia
Pressure on prices based on higher slaughtering of livestock
17 17
Zambia
18 18
Zambia
• Faced with electricity problems-dairy, poultry, crushing/milling
• Kariba Dam water levels to have an impact on electricity supplies in both Zimbabwe and Zambia
• 2Hydropower stations • North bank-operated since 1976 by Zambia Electricity Supply Company (Zesco)-capacity of 1,080 MW
• South bank,-operated by the Zimbabwe Power Corporation (ZPC), capacity 750MW &projects to increase to 1,050MW by 2018
19 19
Zimbabwe
20 20
Livestock production
• Conditions fair-good Northern district
• Conditions deteriorating Southern district: water&pasture shortage
• Prices under pressure
• Beef: FMD
• Ban on cattle movements in the southern part of the country
• Drought contributed: made it difficult to control disease
21 21
Kenya
• Harvest pressure due to El Nino rains
• Quality issue, harvesting high moisture maize
• Planting preparations • Favourable crop expected,
provided no floods • Positive tea performance due
to better prices & favourable exchange rate
22
Field Crop Outlook Horticultural Outlook
Wessel Lemmer
23
Maize
24
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
US China EU - 28 Brazil Mexico India Japan Other
World maize consumption ('000t)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
US China Brazil EU- 28 UkraineArgentina Mexico India Other
World maize production ('000t)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
US Argentina Brazil Ukraine India EU - 28 Other
World maize exports ('000t)
25
025050075010001250150017502000225025002750300032503500
-4000000
-2000000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Consumption Year Production Import Export R/ton
Dry scenario: RSA supply and demand & price trends ('000t : R/t)
025050075010001250150017502000225025002750300032503500
-4000000
-2000000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Consumption Year Production Import Export R/ton
Wet scenario: RSA supply and demand & price trends ('000t : R/t)
26
Total maize 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World Production('000t) 990775 1006244 985609 1033188 1065210 1053918 1071503
Consumption ('000t) 945813 973272 986171 1017253 1051224 1064689 1067108 Imports ('000t) 123926 118573 121657 102377 106594 107778 106937 Exports ('000t) 131100 129092 123427 108365 110532 110921 111445 Ending stock ('000t) 174967 197420 195088 206568 206735 205224 203430 US Yellow (US$/t) 193 175 179 183 187 192 196
Domestic ( Total dry scenario) Production (t) 11810600 14250000 9838500 10593672 12132672 14426672 14800672
Consumption (t) 9790054 10278704 10109000 9980480 10150781 11343530 11894988 Imports (t) 79682 65250 750000 500000 0 0 0 Exports (t) 2232596 2155724 810000 778000 1578000 2478000 2478000 Price (R/t) 2707 2889.64496 2934 2968 3106 3106 3298
Domestic (Total wet scenario) Production (t) 11810600 14250000 9838500 12705192 14216762.6 14981762.6 12526762.6
Consumption (t) 9790054 10278704 10109000 10973676.1 11583278.1 11386349.1 11659073 Imports (t) 79682 65250 750000 270000 0 0 200000 Exports (t) 2232596 2155724 810000 678000 2228000 2468000 1578000 Price (R/t) 2707 2775 2819 2568 2789 2789 3216
Domestic WM dry scenario Production (t) 5606800 7710000 4649800 5290855 5418855 8583855 7878855
Consumption (t) 4886036 5952631 4455000 5195115 5336416 6166665 6313055 Imports (t) 0 0 100000 160000 0 0 0 Exports (t) 1008923 640807 550000 475000 475000 1775000 1475000
Domestic WM wet scenario Production (t) 5606800 7710000 4649800 6523178 7658084.01 8713084 6935084.01
Consumption (t) 4886036 5952631 4455000 5856409.68 6067011.68 5886642.11 5585561.33 Imports (t) 0 0 100000 0 0 0 0 Exports (t) 1008923 640807 550000 475000 1925000 1475000 1375000
Domestic YM dry scenario Production (t) 6203800 6540000 5188700 5302817.02 6713817.02 5842817.02 6921817.02
Consumption (t) 4904018 4326073 5654000 4785365.67 4814365.67 5176865.67 5581933.67 Imports (t) 79682 65250 650000 340000 0 0 0 Exports (t) 1223673 1514917 260000 303000 1103000 703000 1003000
Domestic YM wet scenario Production (t) 6203800 6540000 5188700 6182014 6558678.6 6268678.6 5591678.6
Consumption (t) 4904018 4326073 5654000 5117266.4 5516266.4 5499706.96 6073511.65 Imports (t) 79682 65250 650000 270000 0 0 200000 Exports (t) 1223673 1514917 260000 203000 303000 993000 203000
27
Oilseeds Soybean & Sunflowerseed
28
Soybean & sunflowerseed
29
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumption Production Imports
World soybean production, consumption and trade trends
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumption Production Imports Exports
World sunflower , production, consumption and trade trends ('000t)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Change in hectares planted (ha)
Yellow maize Wheat SoybeanSunflowerseed Canola Barley
Potential oilseeds crushing capacity in South Africa Type* Province ton/month ton/year
Soy Mpumalanga 45,000 540,000 Soy/Sun Gauteng 30,000 360,000 Soy/Sun Gauteng 25,000 300,000
Soy Limpopo 22,000 264,000 Soy/Sun Gauteng 21,000 252,000
Soy Mpumalanga 20,000 240,000 Soy/Sun Gauteng 17,000 204,000
Soy Gauteng 15,000 180,000 Soy/Sun Gauteng 15,000 180,000
Soy Free state 9,000 108,000 Soy Mpumalanga 8,000 96,000 Soy KZN 3,000 36,000
230,000 2,760,000 76% 76% 174,800 2,097,600
30
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Wet scenario: Soybean production, consumption, imports and exports (t)
Consumption Production Imports Exports Price
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Dry scenario: Soybean production, consumption, imports and exports (t)
Consumption Production Imports Exports Price
Soybeans 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World Production('000t) 283145 319366 319612 325207 307918 300988 349462
Consumption ('000t) 275253 297892 310467 316115 320571 312881 329573 Imports ('000t) 111284 119820 123216 115936 125425 124480 133893 Exports ('000t) 112640 124880 126480 120883 128067 126958 141186 Price(US$/t) 492 410 420 430 440 451 462
Domestic (Dry scenario) Production (t) 784500 948000 1041600 917942 1111771 1305600 1403900
Consumption (t) 756417 1020226 1126300 1083983 1188070 1271528 1354398 Imports (t) 3256 102977 150000 140000 100000 0 0 Exports (t) 15390 576 2500 1580 5060 3000 7000 Price (R/t) 5419 5524 5608 5693 5957 5958 6326
Domestic (Wet scenario) Production (t) 784500 948000 1041600 1104300 1209000 1305600 1403900
Consumption (t) 756417 1020226 1126300 1102489 1188070 1271528 1354398 Imports (t) 3256 102977 150000 14600 36000 24400 23300 Exports (t) 15390 576 2500 1900 5500 3000 7000 Price (R/t) 5419 5524 5611 5111 5551 5550 6400
31
Wet and dry scenario for sunflowerseed
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
Wet scenario: Sunflowerseed production, consumption, imports & exports (t)
Consumption Production Imports
Exports Price
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
Dry scenario: Sunflowerseed production, consumption, imports & exports (t)
Consumption Production Imports
Exports Price
32
World balance sheet & wet and dry scenarios for local sunflowerseed
Sunflower 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World Production('000t) 42747 40244 38843 40964 47560 43861 50627
Consumption ('000t) 42124 40236 40737 42206 41575 44876 46075
Imports ('000t) 1500 1421 1182 1089 1508 1306 1409
Exports ('000t) 1947 1853 1337 1394 2081 1531 1716
Domestic (Dry scenario) Production (t) 557000 832000 656800 480087 260087 832087 761087
Consumption (t) 675507 856434 700700 430609 277809 747909 792009
Imports (t) 63180 25000 3100 8900 25600 45300
Exports (t) 8 48 150 80000 0 80000 0
Price (R/t) 5401 4764 5697 6038 6380 5951 6308
Domestic (Wet scenario) Production (t) 557000 832000 656800 840069 769069 458069 828069
Consumption (t) 675507 856434 700700 716399 809303 631006 745010
Imports (t) 63180 25000 0 45300 62400 10800
Exports (t) 8 48 150 80000 0 0 0
Price (R/t) 5401 4764 5697 5230 4900 6380 6272
33
Wheat
34
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Imports Ending stock CEC
SA imports, ending stocks and production ('000t)
0500100015002000250030003500400045005000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
250020
06
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
CEC SA wheat spot R/t
SA production and price trends ('000t : R/t)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Imports Ending stockProduction Production Turnaround
Successful industry turnaround and improved self sufficiency ('000t)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
050
100150200250300350400
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Exports Production
SA exports and production ('000t)
35
Gross production value comparison
36 36
Gross Production Value Gross value comparison (2015 and 2014) White maize Yellow maize Ton R Gross value Ton R Gross value 2015 4,438,352 2,922 12,969,739,990 4,700,444 2,525 11,866,561,356 2014 7,323,763 1,792 13,123,959,053 5,960,323 1,965 11,713,613,545 2015 compared to 2014 -154,219,063 152,947,811 % Change -39 63 -1.18 -21.14 28.46 1.31
Gross value comparison (2015 and 2014) Soybean Sunflowerseed Ton R Gross value Ton R Gross value 2015 1,024,940 4,753 4,871,146,728 658,254 4,949 3,258,001,954 2014 903,929 5,634 5,092,308,208 821,492 4,699 3,859,835,880 2015 compared to 2014 -221,161,480 -601,833,925 % Change 13.39 -15.64 -4.34 -19.87 5.34 -15.59
37
Wine grapes & table grapes
38
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
World wine production trends (M hl)
Closing stock Production Consumption
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World bulk white wine price (price/l)
Australia (AUD) Italy (EUR) Spain (EUR)
96,000
97,000
98,000
99,000
100,000
101,000
102,000
103,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Total area under wine grapes
Red (%) White (%) Total hectare
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Domestic bulk wine price trends (c/l)
All white varieties All red varieties All varieties
39
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Domestic wine production trends (Ml)
Stock Harvest Wine production Wine sales
200
10,200
20,200
30,200
40,200
50,200
60,200
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Producer profitability (R/ha)
Gross revenue Gross margin Net farm income
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Scenario 1: R/kg Scenario 2: R/kgScenario 1: R/Euro Scenario 2:R/Euro
Price scenario (R/kg) and different R/Euro exchange scenarios for 2015/16
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Table grape prices (R/kg) & export volumes (million kg) September 2014 to April 2015
miljoen kg R/kg (2014/15) R/kg (2015/16 proj.)
40
Sugar
41
Sugar 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 World Production('000t) 174308 173405 173812 177446 191600 185535 183782
Imports ('000t) 51551 52867 53688 56372 56663 56913 58229 Exports ('000t) 54155 55812 57079 61283 57828 61846 66718 Ending stock ('000t) 44281 40529 41001 46021 45189 43876 49475 Raw US (US c/lb) 16.3 12.6 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5
Domestic Production ('000t) 2108 2050 2846 2513 2880 2536 2335
Exports ('000t) 462 476 864 885 1078 1147 1194 Price RV (R/t) 3275 3743 3969 4118 4268 4417 4567
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
World Raw (R/t) SA RV (R/t) Raw (US c/lb)
World and domestic sugar price trends (R/t) : US c/lb)
0500100015002000250030003500400045005000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Gross value (R1000t) Producer price (R/t) SA RV (R/t)
Gross value , producer price & cane price (R1000t : R/t)
42
Horticultural Outlook
43
Macadamia
44
R0
R50
R100
R150
R200
R250
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
2012
01
2012
03
2012
05
2012
07
2012
09
2012
11
2013
01
2013
03
2013
05
2013
07
2013
09
2013
11
2014
01
2014
03
2014
05
2014
07
2014
09
2014
11
2015
01
2015
03
2015
05
In shell and shelled export volumes and prices for Macadamias (kg & R/kg) January 2012 to June 2015
In shell Shelled In shell price Shelled price
Jan - Jun2012
Jul - Dec2012
Jan - Jun2013
Jul - Dec2013
Jan - Jun2014
Jul - Dec2014
Jan - Jun2015
Customs Value R255,381,3R521,570,7R428,961,7R980,321,6R746,873,6R1,404,354R922,202,9
R0
R200,000,000
R400,000,000
R600,000,000
R800,000,000
R1,000,000,000
R1,200,000,000
R1,400,000,000
R1,600,000,000
Macadamia exports: Earner of foreign currency
61%
26%
5% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0%
Destination of R1,2 billion of in shell Macadamia exports
Hong Kong Viet Nam United States EU China Canada Other Taiwan, Province Of China
42%
33%
12%
7% 4%
1% 1%
Destination of R1,1 billion of shelled macadamias
USA EU Other Hong Kong Japan Taiwan, Province Of China Vietnam
45
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15
In-shell Shelled
Total cumulative in-shell and shelled export value for macadamias (R)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 Dec-14 May-15
In-shell and shelled export prices for macadamias (R/kg)
Difference In-shell Shelled
Hong Kong 61%
Vietnam 26%
United States 5%
EU 4%
China 3%
Canada 1%
Other 0%
Taiwan, Province Of China
0%
Destination of R1,2 billion of in-shell macadamia exports
USA 42%
EU 33%
Other 12%
Hong Kong 7%
Japan 4%
Taiwan, Province Of
China 1%
Vietnam 1%
Destination of R1,1 billion of shelled macadamia exports
46
Apples
47
0 150,000 300,000 450,000 600,000
Russian FederationGermany
United KingdomNetherlands
EgyptUnited States of America
MexicoCanada
Chinese TaipeiIndia
BelarusSpain
United Arab EmiratesIndonesia
Vietnam
The 15 largest export markets for apples (US$ '000)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected export market sales (t : R/t)
Volume Average price per tonne
Africa 32%
FE & Asia 26%
UK 22%
EU & Russia 9%
Middle East 8%
IOI 3%
USA & Canada <1%
Apple exports per market segment
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected local market sales (t : R/t)
VOLUME Average price per tonne
48
Pears
49
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected export pear market sales (t : R/t)
Volume Average price per tonne
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected local pear market sales (t : R/t)
VOLUME Average price per tonne
EU & Russia 55%
FE & Asia 15%
Middle East 14%
UK 9%
Africa 3%
USA & Canada 2% IOI
2%
Pear exports per market segment
0 150,000 300,000 450,000
Russian FederationGermany
BrazilNetherlands
United KingdomUnited States of America
FranceItaly
MexicoBelarusCanada
IndonesiaLithuania
Hong Kong, ChinaVietnam
The 15 largest export markets for pears (US$ ‘000)
50
Peaches
51
0 150,000 300,000 450,000
GermanyRussian Federation
FranceUnited Kingdom
ItalyBelarusPoland
CanadaBelgium
NetherlandsLithuania
United States of AmericaSwitzerlandKazakhstan
Mexico
The 15 largest export markets for peaches including nectarines (US$ ‘000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
VOLUME Average price per tonne
Projected export volumes and prices for peaches and nectarines (t : R/t)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
VOLUME Average price per tonne
Projected local market sales for peaches and nectarines (t : R/t)
United Kingdom 40%
Middle East 36%
Europe & Russia 18%
IOI 3%
Africa 2%
Far East & Asia 1%
USA & Canada <1%
Peach exports per market segment
52
Plums
53
0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 75,000 90,000
United KingdomNetherlands
GermanyRussian Federation
ChinaBrazil
Hong Kong, ChinaCanada
United States of AmericaVietnam
KazakhstanUnited Arab Emirates
BelarusFrance
Belgium
The 15 largest export markets for plums (US$ ‘000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected plum export market (t : R/t)
VOLUME Average price per tonne
Europe & Russia 53%
United Kingdom 22%
Middle East 16%
Far East & Asia 7%
IOI 1%
Africa 1% USA & Canada
<1%
Plum exports per market segment
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Projected local plum market sales (t : R/t)
VOLUME Average price per tonne
54
Vegetables
55
Angola 18%
Botswana 17%
Namibia 16%
Mozambique 12%
Lesotho 9%
Swaziland 8%
Zambia 4%
United Kingdom 4%
Zimbabwe 2%
Netherlands 2%
Other 8%
South African export destinations as% of total vegetable exports of US$189,2 million
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Vegetable production: 2000 - 2020 ('000 ton)
Potatoes Onions Tomatoes Green mealies Pumpkins Carrots Cabbage Other
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Vegetable prices: 2000 - 2020
Tomatoes Potatoes CarrotsOnions Cabbages Pumpkins
Potatoes 45%
Onions 13%
Tomatoes 11%
Green mealies 7%
Pumpkins 5%
Carrots 4%
Cabbage 3%
Other 12%
Vegetable production ('000 ton) in 2015
56
Citrus
57
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World grapefruit, production, consumption, imports & exports ('000 ton)
Consumption Production Imports Exports
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World lemons, production, consumption, imports & exports ('000 ton)
Consumption Production Imports Exports
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World oranges, production, consumption, imports & exports ('000 ton)
Consumption Production Imports Exports
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World tangerines & mandarines, production, consumption, imports & exports ('000 ton)
Consumption Production Imports Exports
58
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic prices for citrus (R/ton)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemon Naartjies
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestic citrus production (ton)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemon Naartjies
80%
9% 8%
3%
Delivery of citrus on the Fresh Produce Market in 2014
Oranges Lemon Naartjies Grapefruit
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Export prices for citrus (R/ton)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemon
59
Grapefruit 7%
Lemons & lime 7%
Oranges 53%
Tangerines & mandarins
33%
World citrus production, 2020
South Africa 75%
Argentina 18%
Australia 6%
Brazil 1%
Southern hemisphere citrus exports by 2020
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2005/2006 2008/2009 2011/2012 2014/2015 2017/2018
China European Union Brazil MexicoUnited States Turkey Russia EgyptMorocco Vietnam Other
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Domestic prices for citrus (R/t)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemons Naartjies
60
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Export prices for citrus (R/t)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemons
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Domestic citrus production (t)
Oranges Grapefruit Lemons Naartjies
Citrus Grapefruit
Production ('000t) 6069 6182 6274 5334 5809 6297 6491 Imports ('000t) 764 738 731 753 745 767 761 Consumption ('000t) 5126 5288 5351 5553 5585 5847 5941 Exports ('000t) 838 767 823 814 832 815 835
Lemons Production ('000t) 6185 6742 6775 6472 6721 6902 6893 Imports ('000t) 1496 1489 1560 1630 1600 1640 1740 Consumption ('000t) 4569 4740 4701 4653 4745 4701 4755 Exports ('000t) 1593 1609 1720 1630 1680 1690 1780
Oranges Production ('000t) 51008 48797 48885 54052 48687 51746 51013 Imports ('000t) 3521 3436 3561 3703 3615 3757 3701 Consumption ('000t) 29637 28951 29450 29670 30270 30790 30840 Exports ('000t) 4012 3889 4212 4003 4155 4187 4301
Tangerines/Mandarins, Fresh Production ('000t) 26255 26957 27964 28353 28415 30326 31686 Imports ('000t) 2281 2245 2361 2503 2415 2557 2483 Consumption ('000t) 24707 25422 26932 26882 28432 28669 30000 Exports ('000t) 2496 2367 2641 2503 2685 2607 2781
61
Livestock outlook
Ernst Janovsky
62 62
Poultry trade
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Poultry imports ('000 tons)
Japan EU-28 Saudi Arabia IraqMexico Hong Kong China South AfricaRussia Other
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Poultry exports ('000 tons)
Brazil United States EU-28Thailand Turkey ArgentinaOther
63 63
Domestic poultry consumption and price trends
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
SA poultry production and imports ('000 t)
Production of white meat Imports
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Poultry prices
Med frozen Med fresh IQF Import parity
64 64
Poultry profitability trend
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12 Jan/13 Jan/14 Jan/15 Jan/16 Jan/17
Relationship between Poultry and maize prices (Price ratio, C/kg)
Poultry/maize Break even Med frozen
65 65
International Beef trade
66 66
Domestic beef production and herd trends
67 67
Domestic beef price trends
68 68
World Mutton trade trends
69 69
70 70
International Mutton price trends
71 71
Wool price outlook
72
Pork Outlook 2016
73
Pork production profitability trend
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Relationship between pork and maize price (price ratio, c/kg)
Pork/maize ratio Breakeven ratio Baconer
74
Dairy trade trend
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
World Butter, Cheese and Milk powder exports ('000 t)
New Zealand European Union USAAustralia Argentina South AfricaOther
-500.0
-400.0
-300.0
-200.0
-100.0
-
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dairy imports and exports (Milk equivalent (millions liters))
Imports Exports Net imports
75
Dairy price trends
30.00%
32.00%
34.00%
36.00%
38.00%
40.00%
42.00%
44.00%
2.50
4.50
6.50
8.50
10.50
12.50
14.50
16.50
18.50
Jan 2008Jan 2010Jan 2012Jan 2014Jan 2016Jan 2018Jan 2020
SA milk price trends (R/L)
Producer price Retail price Producers Share
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020
World dairy product price trends (US $/t)
Butter SMP Cheder
76
Dairy profitability trend
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016
Price relation between maize and milk
Maize milk price rato Producer price Breakeven price Ratio
Ratio (R/l)
77
Ostrich production trends
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2005 2010 2015
World Commercial Ostrich Slaughtering
South Africa Europ China Namibia
Zimbabwe Botswana Zambia Other
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Ostrich flock numbers
Breading birds Other Slaughtering
78
Ostrich price and revenue trends
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2010 2015
Ostrich price trends
Skin R/skin Meat (c/kg) Feather (R/kg)
-
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,400,000,000
2005 2010 2015
Gross producer value
Meat Skin Feather
79
Game industry trends
Julie Hayward
80 80
Introduction to game
• The wildlife industry has a total est. turnover R 122.7 billion
• Game industry – 4 segments: 1. Tourism (50% of 12.1 million tourist go game viewing annually) +/- R102 billion 2. Game products(Trophy’s, hides, venison- risks with ample opportunity) +/- R1 billion 3. Hunting +/- R7.5 billion 4. Breeding +/- R12.2 billion
• Game adapts well to dry conditions therefore diversification opportunities • Beef industry
• Intrinsic value of game
• Game Index – industry consultation
81 81
• Game Index: • National game auction index • National hunting index
o Flippie Cloete, Wessel Lemmer and Julie Hayward
• Release dates – February and July Forecasting Different species on the index
82 82
Game Categories Smaller plains game
1. Springbuck 2. Blesbuck 3. Impala
Larger plains game 1. Blue wildebeest 2. Kudu 3. Gemsbuck
Intermediate game 1. Nyala
Higher value game 1. Buffalo 2. Sable 3. Roan
Colour variant game 1. Black Impala 2. Golden Wildebeest
83 83
84 84
85 85
86 86
87 87
88 88
2002 2004 2005 2006 2011 2012 2013Smaller Plains game 2775 3885 2892 3308 3151 2290 2929Intermediate game 956 931 0 2809 1183 975 1503larger plains game 1880 3551 2706 3189 2915 2598 2933Higher value game 65 80 114 124 384 361 463
Number of game hunted by international hunters
2002 2004 2005 2006 2011 2012 2013Smaller Plains game 2,810R 2,903R 1,808R 3,484R 4,615R 4,042R 5,102R Intermediate game 15,805R 9,678R -R 13,223R 17,079R 19,934R 22,181R larger plains game 6,322R 5,807R 5,742R 7,041R 9,436R 10,275R 13,694R Higher value game 66,734R 34,518R 34,028R 58,166R 142,685R 82,546R 105,504R R/$ 10.54 6.45 6.38 6.78 7.27 8.22 9.64
Rand value of game hunted by international hunters
Smaller plains game – Springbuck, Blesbuck, Impala Larger plains game - Blue Wldebeest, Kudu, Gemsbuck Intermediate game – Nyala Higher value game – Buffalo, Sable, Roan Colour variant game - Black Impala, Golden Wildebeest
89
Thank you for the opportunity to share a few ideas
Any Questions Authors
Ernst Janovsky Wessel Lemmer
Karabo Takadi Julie Hayward
Disclaimer: Although everything has been done to ensure the accuracy of the information, the Bank takes no responsibility for actions or losses that might occur due to the usage of this information.
