Global Economic Forecasts Group Economics Macro Research 26 March 2015

26/03/2015 GDP (% yoy) Inflation (% yoy) Unemployment (%)

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

US 2.2 2.4 3.2 3.1 1.5 1.6 -0.2 2.5 7.4 6.2 5.1 4.5

Japan 1.6 -0.1 1.6 1.2 0.3 2.8 1.0 1.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.4

Eurozone -0.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.4 1.7 12.0 11.6 11.2 10.6

Germany 0.2 1.6 2.2 2.5 1.6 0.8 1.0 2.0 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3

France 0.4 0.4 1.4 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.7 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.2

Italy -1.9 -0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.1 -0.7 0.7 12.2 12.6 13.5 13.7

Spain -1.2 1.4 2.5 2.9 1.5 -0.2 -0.4 1.8 26.1 24.5 22.6 20.4

The Netherlands -0.7 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.6

Belgium 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.5 1.6 8.4 8.5 8.3 8.0

Austria 0.2 0.3 1.6 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.3 2.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 4.8

Finland -1.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.2 1.2 0.8 1.7 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.5

Greece -4.4 0.7 0.5 2.7 -0.9 -1.6 -1.9 0.0 27.5 26.3 24.8 23.2

Portugal -1.4 0.9 2.0 2.6 0.4 -0.2 0.1 1.5 16.4 14.3 13.3 12.6

Ireland 0.2 5.3 3.7 3.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.7 13.1 11.0 9.5 8.5

UK 1.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.1 1.9 7.5 6.1 5.3 5.2

Sweden 1.3 2.2 2.4 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 8.2 7.9 7.6 7.3

Denmark -0.5 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.1 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.1

Switzerland 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 -1.5 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9

Norway 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3

Canada 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.7 1.0 2.0 0.5 2.1 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.0

Australia 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.7 5.9 6.2 6.5 6.0

New Zealand 2.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8 6.0 5.2 5.0 5.0

World 3.3 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.6

World trade 2.6 3.3 5.0 6.0

Current account (% GDP) Budget balance (% GDP) Government debt (% GDP)

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E

US -2.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.7 -4.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.2 72 74 74 76

Japan 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 -8.3 -7.0 -6.5 -6.3 243 246 243 240

Eurozone 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 -2.9 -2.6 -2.3 -2.0 93 95 95 94

Germany 6.9 7.6 7.9 7.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.5 77 75 71 69

France -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -2.2 -4.1 -4.5 -4.2 -3.9 92 96 98 100

Italy 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 -2.8 -3.0 -2.9 -2.9 128 132 134 134

Spain 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.4 -6.8 -5.5 -4.2 -3.3 92 98 101 102

The Netherlands 11.0 10.3 9.9 9.6 -2.3 -2.3 -1.7 -1.0 69 69 69 68

Belgium -1.5 -0.3 -0.7 -1.0 -2.9 -3.3 -2.8 -2.6 105 106 107 106

Austria 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.3 -1.5 -2.9 -1.7 -1.1 81 87 86 84

Finland -2.0 -2.0 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4 -2.9 -3.0 -2.7 56 60 63 64

Greece -2.7 -2.8 -1.8 -1.8 -12.2 -1.6 -0.1 1.3 175 176 169 158

Portugal -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.5 -4.9 -4.5 -3.5 -2.8 128 128 126 124

Ireland 4.4 6.0 6.0 5.5 -5.7 -3.5 -3.0 -3.0 123 111 110 105

UK -4.2 -3.9 -3.7 -3.6 -5.8 -5.4 -4.4 -3.4 87 89 90 90

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, EIU, ABN AMRO Group Economics

2

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This you sdoes No rewarracontagiven Befoundechecretur © Co

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document has been psolely for your informats not constitute an offer

eliance may be placedanty, express or implieained in this documentn time and ABN AMRO

re investing in any proer applicable laws and ck whether the relevantrns. ABN AMRO reserv

opyright 2015 ABN AM

onomic Fore

26/03/201

Emerging

Emerging

Latin Ame

Middle EaAfrica

EM Total

Eurozone

US

World

China

India

Turkey

Russia

Brazil

Emerging

Emerging

Latin Ame

Middle EaAfrica

Eurozone

US

Emerging

China

India

Turkey

Russia

Brazil

* 2014, 20

Source: T

Group Econom

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MRO Bank N.V. and affi

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15 GDP (%

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March 2015

yoy)

013 2014E

6.4 6.4

1.8 1.3

2.4 0.8

1.6 2.8

4.7 4.5

0.4 0.9

2.2 2.4

3.3 3.3

7.7 7.4

6.4 7.2

4.1 3.0

1.3 0.6

2.5 0.1

account (% GDP)

013 2014E

1.0 1.5

1.5 0.0

2.5 -2.5

8.5 6.0

2.6 2.9

2.4 -2.4

2.0 2.0

2.5 -1.5

8.0 -6.0

1.5 2.5

3.5 -4.0

urrent account and b

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2015E 2016E

6.4 6.4

-0.5 2.1

0.8 2.8

2.5 3.5

4.1 5.0

1.8 2.3

3.2 3.1

3.4 4.0

7.0 7.0

7.5 7.5

3.5 4.0

-4.0 0.5

-1.0 2.0

2015E 2016E

1.5 1.0

0.5 0.5

-3.0 -2.5

-2.5 0.5

3.2 3.1

-2.6 -2.7

2.5 2.0

-1.5 -2.0

-4.0 -4.0

3.0 4.0

-4.0 -3.5

budget deficit are ro

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amro.nl/en/cat

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sts and assumptions cofficers, agents, affiliatetly, from any use of sucdocument after the dat

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Inflation (% yoy)

E 2013

4.5

5.3

9.0

13.8

6.4

1.3

1.5

4.4

2.6

10.0

7.5

6.8

6.2

Budget balance

E 2013

-2.5

-1.5

-3.0

0.5

-2.9

-4.1

-2.0

-4.5

-1.0

-0.5

-3.0

ounded figures

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2014E 2015E

3.6 3.1

6.3 9.0

12.7 12.6

7.4 7.0

5.8 5.8

0.5 0.4

1.6 -0.2

4.0 3.6

2.0 2.0

7.2 6.0

9.0 8.0

7.8 13.1

6.3 7.3

(% GDP)

2014E 2015E

-2.5 -2.5

-1.5 -1.5

-4.5 -4.5

-1.5 -7.0

-2.6 -2.3

-2.8 -2.5

-2.0 -2.5

-4.0 -4.0

-1.5 -1.5

-0.5 -2.0

-6.0 -4.5

my/

formation in this documurposes than stated ab

ent or on its completenor employees as to the ws and opinions expre

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2016E

3.4

5.1

9.7

6.8

5.0

1.7

2.5

3.8

2.5

5.5

6.5

5.9

5.7

2016E

-2.5

-1.5

-3.5

-4.0

-2.0

-2.2

-2.5

-4.0

-1.5

-2.0

-4.0

ment is strictly proprietabove. This document is

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3 Global Ecoonomic Fore

26/03/2015

US

Japan

Eurozone

UK

Sweden

Denmark

Switzerland

Norway

Canada

Australia

New Zealand

US

Japan

Eurozone (Bund

UK

Sweden

Denmark

Switzerland

Norway

Canada

Australia

New Zealand

USD

USD/JPY

USD/EUR

GBP/USD

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/CHF

USD/NOK

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

USD/CNY

USD/INR

USD/TRY

USD/RUB

USD/BRL

*2015 and 2016

Source: Thomso

ecasts – 26

K

Official policy ra

2013

0.25

0.10

0.25

0.50

0.75

0.20

0.00

1.50

1.00

2.50

2.50

10y governmen

2013

2.7

0.7

ds) 1.9

2.4

2.5

2.0

1.0

3.0

2.8

4.3

4.7

Exchange rates

2013

103

0.73

1.66

6.35

5.41

0.91

5.88

1.07

0.89

0.82

6.10

61.90

2.14

32.73

2.34

6 are rounded figures

on Reuters Datastrea

March 2015

KEY RAT

ate (%, eop)

2014 2015E

0.25 0.75

0.10 0.10

0.05 0.05

0.50 0.75

0.00 -0.50

0.20 0.05

0.00 -1.00

1.25 1.00

1.00 0.75

2.50 2.00

3.50 4.00

nt bond yields (%, eop

2014 2015E

2.2 2.1

0.3 0.7

0.5 0.4

2.2 2.0

1.2 0.8

0.9 0.6

0.4 -0.3

2.3 1.2

2.1 2.3

3.3 2.5

4.1 4.8

s (versus USD, eop)*

2014 2015E

120 130

0.83 1.05

1.51 1.40

7.77 10.0

6.15 7.1

0.99 1.1

7.56 8.4

1.16 1.3

0.83 0.7

0.77 0.7

6.20 6.4

61.99 64

2.33 2.8

60.74 58

2.66 3.2

m, EIU, ABN AMRO G

5

TES FOR

3m inte

2016E 20

2.25

0.10

0.05

1.75

-0.50

0.05 -

-1.00

1.25

1.25

2.75

4.50

p) Spread

2016E 20

2.9

1.0

1.0

2.7

1.5

1.2

-0.3

2.0

2.8

3.7

6.0

* Exchan

2016E 20

1

135 1

0.91

1.45 0

8.6 8

7.8 7

1.0 1

6.8 8

1.4 1

0.7 1

0.6 1

6.5 8

65 85

2.9 2

55 45

3.1 3

Group Economics

RECASTS

rbank rate (%, eop)

013 2014 2

0.2 0.3

0.2 0.1

0.3 0.1

0.6 0.6

0.8 0.3

0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0

1.5 1.5

1.1 1.2

2.6 2.7

2.7 3.7

versus Bunds (% po

013 2014 2

0.5 0.4

2.3 1.4

2.2 1.3

0.3 0.1

0.6 0.3

0.3 0.2

0.2 0.1

6.5 7.3

4.1 2.4

1.7 0.8

ge rates (versus EUR

013 2014 2

.38 1.21

141 145

.83 0.80

.75 9.40

.46 7.44

.25 1.20

.10 9.15

.47 1.40

.55 1.46

.68 1.57

.41 7.51

.29 79.35

.94 2.82

.10 73.50

.23 3.21

S

2015E 2016E

0.9 2.4

0.2 0.2

0.1 0.1

1.0 2.0

-0.3 -0.3

-1.0 -1.0

-1.0 -1.0

0.8 1.5

1.7 2.7

2.3 3.0

4.2 4.7

ints)

2015E 2016E

0.1 0.1

0.7 0.6

0.4 0.3

0.0 0.0

0.1 0.1

0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0

4.5 3.0

1.2 0.8

0.3 0.2

R, eop)*

2015E 2016E

0.95 1.10

124 149

0.68 0.76

9.5 9.5

7.4 7.4

1.1 1.1

8.0 7.5

1.2 1.5

1.3 1.7

1.4 1.7

6.0 7.1

61 72

2.6 3.1

55 61

3.4 2.9

France

Italy

Spain

The Netherlands

Belgium

Austria

Finland

Greece

Portugal

Ireland

EUR/USD

EUR/JPY

EUR/GBP

EUR/SEK

EUR/DKK

EUR/CHF

EUR/NOK

EUR/CAD

EUR/AUD

EUR/NZD

EUR/CNY

EUR/INR

EUR/TRY

EUR/RUB

EUR/BRL

4

Rus

Pola

Cze

Hun

Rom

Bulg

Chi

Indi

Sou

Taiw

Hon

Indo

Tha

Sing

Mal

Phil

Bra

Mex

Arg

Ven

Colo

Chi

Per

Tur

Sou

Ma

Rus

Pola

Cze

Hun

Rom

Bulg

Chi

Indi

Sou

Taiw

Hon

Indo

Tha

Sing

Mal

Phil

Bra

Mex

Arg

Ven

Colo

Chi

Per

Tur

Sou

**Fo

Sou

Global Eco

Nomi

ssia

and

ech Rep

ngary

mania

garia

na

ia*

uth Korea

w an

ng Kong

onesia

ailand

gapore

laysia

lippines

azil

xico

gentina

nezuela

ombia

le

ru

rkey

uth Africa

acroeconomic

ssia

and

ech Rep

ngary

mania

garia

na

ia*

uth Korea

w an

ng Kong

onesia

ailand

gapore

laysia

lippines

azil

xico

gentina

nezuela

ombia

le

ru

rkey

uth Africa

orecasts for govt ba

urce: ABN AM RO Gro

onomic Fore

inal GDP GDP g

EUR bn

2012 20

3454 0

899 3

303 2

232 3

385 2

115 1

16667 7

6762 7

1660 3

970 3

382 2

2389 5

964 0

424 3

695 6

643 6

3009 0

2004 2

879 -1

553 -2

600 4

386 1

341 2

1423 3

692 1

forecasts and

Curre

20

2

-1

-1

4

-1

1

2

-1

6

11

2

-3

2

22

4

4

-4

-1

-1

1

-4

-1

-4

-6

-5

lance, current acco

up Economics, EIU

ecasts – 26

growth (% yoy)

Forecast:

014 2015

0.6 -4.0

3.3 3.5

2.0 3.0

3.7 2.5

2.9 3.0

1.5 2.0

7.4 7.0

7.2 7.5

3.3 3.5

3.7 3.5

2.3 2.5

5.1 5.0

0.7 3.5

3.0 3.0

6.0 5.0

6.1 6.5

0.1 -1.0

2.0 3.0

1.0 0.0

2.8 -3.5

4.8 4.0

1.8 3.0

2.4 4.5

3.0 3.5

1.6 2.2

exchange rate

ent account (% GD

Forecast**:

014 2015

2.5 3.0

1.5 -1.5

1.0 -0.5

4.0 4.5

1.0 -1.0

1.5 2.0

2.0 2.5

1.5 -1.5

6.0 6.0

1.5 12.5

2.0 2.5

3.0 -3.0

2.5 2.5

2.0 23.0

4.0 3.0

4.5 4.0

4.0 -4.0

1.5 -1.5

1.0 -1.0

1.5 -2.0

4.5 -6.5

1.5 -1.5

4.5 -5.0

6.0 -4.0

5.5 -5.0

ount and exchange r

March 2015

Inflation (

2016 2014

0.5 7.8

4.0 0.1

3.0 0.5

2.5 -0.2

3.5 1.4

3.0 -1.6

7.0 2.0

7.5 7.2

3.5 1.3

3.5 1.2

3.0 4.4

5.5 6.4

4.0 1.9

3.5 1.0

5.0 3.1

6.5 4.2

2.0 6.3

4.0 4.0

2.0 37.7

1.0 62.0

4.5 2.9

4.0 4.4

4.5 3.2

4.0 9.0

3.5 6.1

es (year end)

DP) Exchange

Recent

2016 26/03/2015

4.0 57.60

-2.0 3.72

0.0 24.91

5.0 272

-1.0 4.02

2.0 1.78

2.0 6.21

-2.0 62.38

5.5 1101

11.5 31.31

2.0 7.76

-2.0 12986

2.0 32.56

21.0 1.37

4.0 3.67

3.5 44.76

-3.5 3.16

-2.0 14.94

-1.0 8.80

-0.5 12.00

-4.5 2545

-1.5 619

-4.5 3.06

-4.0 2.57

-4.5 11.85

rates are rounded

5

(CPI, % yoy avg)

Forecast:

4 2015 20

13.1 5

-0.5 1

1.0 1

0.0 2

1.0 2

-0.5 1

2.0 2

6.0 5

1.0 2

0.5 1

3.5 3

6.5 5

0.5 2

0.5 1

2.0 2

3.0 3

7.3 5

3.9 3

27.6 21

72.1 49

3.6 3

3.0 3

2.7 3

8.0 6

5.5 5

e rate against US

Forecast**:

5 2015 20

0 58

2 4.3 3

1 29

2 340 3

2 4.0 3

8 2.1 1

1 6.4 6

8 65

1 1150 11

1 32

6 7.8 7

6 13300 137

6 34

7 1.4 1

7 3.5 3

6 44

6 3.2 3

4 14.0 13

0 11.6 14

0 8.7 12

5 2300 23

9 600 6

6 3.1 3

7 2.8 2

5 12.0 13

Exchange rate E

Exchange rate U

Govt balanc

F

016 2014

5.9 -0.5

1.0 -3.5

1.5 -1.5

2.5 -2.5

2.5 -2.0

1.0 -3.5

2.5 -2.0

5.5 -4.0

2.0 0.5

1.5 -1.5

3.0 1.0

5.0 -2.5

2.5 -2.0

1.5 0.5

2.5 -3.5

3.5 -1.0

5.7 -6.0

3.9 -3.0

1.2 -2.5

9.8 -13.0

3.4 -2.0

3.3 -1.5

3.0 0.0

6.5 -1.5

5.4 -4.5

D: Exchange ra

Recent F

016 26/03/2015

55 63.29

3.7 4.09

24 27.37

300 299

3.9 4.42

1.8 1.96

6.5 6.83

65 68.54

50 1209

33 34.40

7.8 8.52

700 14268

35 35.78

1.5 1.50

3.6 4.03

43 49.18

3.1 3.47

3.5 16.41

4.3 9.67

2.4 13.19

300 2796

600 680

3.1 3.36

2.9 2.83

3.0 13.03

EUR/USD

USD/EUR

e (% GDP)

orecast**:

2015 2016

-2.0 -2.0

-3.0 -2.5

-2.0 -1.5

-2.5 -2.5

-1.5 -1.5

-3.0 -3.0

-2.5 -2.5

-4.0 -4.0

0.5 1.0

-1.0 -1.0

0.0 -1.0

-2.0 -2.0

-2.0 -2.0

1.0 1.5

-3.5 -3.0

-2.0 -2.5

-4.5 -4.0

-3.0 -2.5

-2.5 -1.5

-17.0 -11.5

-2.0 -1.5

-2.0 -0.5

-0.5 0.0

-1.5 -1.5

-3.5 -3.0

ate against EUR:

orecast**:

2015 2016

55 61

4.0 4.0

28 27

320 330

4.0 4.5

2.0 3.0

6.0 7.0

60 70

1050 1250

30 36

7.5 8.5

12650 15050

32 38

1.5 1.5

3.5 4.0

42 47

3.0 3.5

13.5 15.0

11.0 16.0

8.5 13.5

2200 2550

570 660

3.0 3.5

2.5 3.0

11.5 14.5

0.95 1.10

1.05 0.91

U

Government d

Fore

6 2014 2

8

49

44

78

39

27

16

51

36

35

40

25

47

108

54

49

60

42

40

53

42

14

16

35

45

6

pdate: 26/03/15

debt (% GDP)

ecast:

2015 2016

10 12

50 50

44 45

77 76

39 39

28 30

17 19

49 48

36 36

35 36

40 42

25 25

49 50

106 109

56 56

48 47

63 63

44 45

41 41

56 59

43 41

15 15

16 15

33 31

43 42