Abigail Howells – DG Environment

European Commission

BASIC Workshop - New Delhi 11th / 12th May 2006

Adaptation: Perspectives and Adaptation: Perspectives and Experience from the EUExperience from the EU

A Changing Climate: the evidence

Raising temperatures: the global mean surface temperature increase by 0.6ºCelsius over the 20th century (greater over the land than over the oceans)

The increase during 20th century was greatest in past 1000 years

Predictions of a global increase between 1.4 and 5.8ºCelsius by 2100 (from the IPCC’s TAR)

A Changing Climate: (cont.)

Sea level rise – in response to thermal expansion of oceans and melting of glaciers and ice caps, global msl projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m between 1990 and 2100. Consequences on costal erosion, flood and water resources (e.g. salt-water intrusion)

Melting of ice sheets: e.g. Greenland - impacts on sea level rise (7m) and may cause shutting down of Gulf Stream

Retreat of glaciers: impacts on localised flooding and water resources

Water cycle

Increased precipitation over land by 5-10% over 20th century (but decreased over some areas: Mediterranean, north/west Africa)

Observed increase in heavy precipitation events – particularly mid and high northern latitudes

Droughts – increase in frequency and intensity in some regions

Extreme weather events

Storms, floods, droughts and heat waves to become more frequent, more severe, more costly

Human health

Increase of fatalities from extreme weather events (heatwaves, floods)

Photo Source: www.afpap.org/

Changes in the spread of vector-borne diseases, food and water-borne pathogens

Photo Source: Sinclair Stammers, World Health Organization, Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases

Biodiversity

Disruption of ecosystems from fires, droughts, pest infestation, invasion of species could lead to the extinction of some 25 % of mammal species and 12 % of birds

Photo Source: www.wwf.org.uk

The Need for Adaptation in Europe

Temperature increase of 2ºC to 6.3ºC in Europe (1990-2100)

Variations in precipitation : wetter northern Europe / drier in the south

Annual costs from flooding in Europe could increase to 100-120 billion € by 2080 (from Association of British Insurers)

European Climate Change Programme

Set up in June 2000 to identify measures enabling EU to meet Kyoto targets

42 innovative measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions identified and implemented (inc. ETS)

Feb 2005 Communication: Winning the Battle against Climate Change, outlining key elements for the EU's post-2012 strategy – reducing Europe’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change

ECCP II

Launched on 24/10/2005 in Brussels

Review progress made so far

Consider future mitigation measures (CO2 and cars, aviation, carbon capture and storage)

Adapt to climate change

Creation of 5 distinct working groups, including Impacts and Adaptation

Workgroup Objectives

Improve Europe's resilience to Climate Change Impacts

Integration of adaptation into European Climate Change Policy

Identify good practice in development of adaptation policy and foster learning

Define EU role in adaptation policies

Adaptation challenges

Uncertainty: Long time-frames, Different levels of certainty (projections, risks extremes, major events)

Irreversible losses such as ecosystems

Conciling policy action and legislation to be carried out at regional / local level by public / private sector and to be “stakeholder-led”, rather than enforced

Allocating costs: Who should pay?

Adaptation Challenges (cont.)

Cost-effectiveness: Climate proofing all human activities would be extremely expensive

Avoiding Mal-adaptation: Inefficient use of resources compared to other options, adaptation that is ineffective (scenarios that not appear) or displacing vulnerability from one sector to another

Economic, ethical and political considerations: long-term impacts vs costs of adaptation options now, equity and distributional benefits (protection of those less able to adapt vs those with capital / resources)

Successful adaptation : a 3-tiered concept

Prepare to adapt by building capacity

• Research• Awareness• Policies• Monitoring

Alter existing plans to manage climate risks and take advantage of new opportunities

• Urgent and high priority• Win-win, Low cost• Existing frameworks• Disaster responses

Implement adaptation actions

• Cost-effective/Cost benefit analysis• Additional criteria-existing frameworks• Modify infrastructure• Alter processes

Workgroup Work Programme

Stakeholder engagement exercise - 10 sectoral meetings: (April – June 2006)

Impacts on water cycle and water resources management Marine resources and coastal zones and tourism Human health Agriculture and Forestry Biodiversity

Workgroup Work Programme (cont.)

10 sectoral meetings: Regional planning, Industrial and public infrastructure,

Structural funds Urban planning and construction Development cooperation Role of insurance industry Building national strategies for adaptation (country reports)

One wrap-up session to adopt individual status reports (September 2006)

Research Activities

Identify cost-effective adaptation strategies through a call for proposals for the (6th and 7th Framework Programme, RTD)

Organisation of 3 two-day workshops (December 2006)

How will climate change affect EU citizens? Scenarios of climate change at regional and sub-regional level in the EU

How to improve the resilience of European society and economy? From climate modelling to building cost effective adaptation strategies

Economic assessment of adaptation strategies

Output

Production of status reports for each of the 10 thematic meetings

European Commission Conference on Adaptation (November 2006)

Publication of a Green Paper on Adaptation (November 2006) for consultation

...Thank you for your Attention