ABID WAZIR KHAN - CSS SPSC HUB

Much has happened in recent decades, case of France, which in the late 18th century from the rise of Islamophobic troll started to identify its new identity against a formi-workshops in India to renewed anti- dable and tyrannical church. However, the country,

Semitism in Europe and Facebook-created currently, has a sizeable non-Christian minority, “bubbles” in the United States, to thwart the mostly from the Muslim countries it once cruelly pseudo-religious faith that free expression is an colonized, and it appears highly unlikely that unquestionable value, an unequivocal sign of Macron or anyone else can manage to affront this ethical and civic advancement. Now the French traditionally degraded population into an Illumina-President Emmanuel Macron seems a fretted man. tion.He first suggested to modernize Islam along French As Le Monde reported, Macron scoffed during lines. Then following the violent murder of a a cabinet meeting at American “multiculturalism,” schoolteacher by a Muslim teenager, he offered calling it a “form of defeatist thought.” In fact, there France’s backing to caricatures of the Prophet is a great deal he can learn from the United States, (pbuh) that most Muslims see as blasphemous. The the impenetrable citadel of free speech. The First ‘crisis’ of Islam for Europe has not only deepened, Amendment didn’t have to be rescinded for but also given birth to a more challenging global denouncing such insulting discourse. Rather, anti-‘crisis’ of free expression. racist campaigners generated extensive social rec-

Macron and his supporters are misled by ideo- ognition for their principled belief — that the nobil-logical dogma. It is one thing to uphold freedom of ity of a once methodically humiliated people be expression — a responsibility of all democratic revered. Condescending of America’s experience, leaders. It is relatively another to install an entire Macron could at least consider Simone Weil, the nation behind a certain manifestation of that free- uncommon French sage to allow for the presence of dom. In one noticeable case of growing her country’s colonial subjects and to recognize that majoritarian reaction against an already estranged 18th-century articles of faith cannot remain the faction, high schools throughout France intended only guidebook to human co-existence.to distribute fliers with demeaning images of the Exploring France’s cataclysmic political and Prophet (pbuh) in order to uphold “the values of the moral breakdown in the late 1930s and early 1940s, Republic.” Part of the blame for this growing mess Weil came to see duties and obligations rather than must sit on Macron’s ever more despairing desire to rights as the foundation of an irreversibly varied defeat his overtly anti-Islam challenger Marine le society. For her, phrases like “I have the right” sug-Pen at her own game in presidential elections due in gest a “latent war and awaken the spirit of conten-2022. tion.”As Weil observed, “to place the notion of

France’s close neighbor Germany has been rights at the center of social conflicts is to inhibit outlawing disparaging “fake news” and cracking any possible impulse of charity on both sides.”down on social media enterprises. France itself has The nature of conflict, grown vicious, even announced the denial of the Holocaust to be a crime deadly, is damaging societies around the world — an incongruity that besets its support for free today while the inclination to benevolence grows speech. A bewildered Muslim today may well ques- ever frailer. Nonetheless, the damage has been tion why insults against the Prophet and Islam done — and not only to the belief of free expression, should turn out to be the litmus test of a strongly but also to the principle of co-existence. Macron and regularly compromised principle. must suppress the evil notion that insulting the

Determined to settle once and for all the “cri- central beliefs of nearly 2 billion Muslims would sis” of Islam, Macron and his supporters pretend maintain the essential values of French people. If that the right to insult the devout is an indispens- not addressed timely and appropriately, the crisis able move in mankind’s journey from religious of Islam would aggravate, and the crisis of free delusion to secular illumination. The historical expression worsen.proof for this conviction may appear strong in the

4 | GLOBAL AGE December 2020

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The Crisis of Free ExpressionEditorial

Ali InanLahore, Pakistan

December 2020 GLOBAL AGE 7|6 | GLOBAL AGE December 2020

December 2020

Current edition

globalagemagazine.kipscss.net globalagemagazine.kipscss.net

Editorial4The Crisis of Free Expression

Pakistan Islamists

Radical Leader Khadim Hussain Rizvi is Dead – But His Ideology Will Live On in Pakistan8Leader of a right-wing party with pull, Rizvi’s death will not diminish extremist politics in Pakistan

South Asia Conflict

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Diplomatic Repercussions for Pakistan10While Nagorno-Karabakh is over 2,000 kilometers from Pakistan’s borders, its conflicts may have a lasting effect on Pakistan’s diplomacy

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Khan on ‘Historic’ First Visit to Afghanistan12The uneasy neighbors are trying to turn the corner from a relationship marked by suspicion and downright hostility toward a partnership forpeace in the region

Pakistan-India Relations

What Explains the Timing of Pakistan’s Anti-India Dossier?13Islamabad has come forward with evidence about India’s role in spreading terrorism in Pakistan. That might be a politically smart move

Gilgit-Baltistan Reforms

The Complex Calculus Behind Gilgit-Baltistan’s Provincial Upgrade14Kashmir, India, and China: The creation of Pakistan’s newest province will have far-flung geopolitical ripples

US Pakistan Policy

From Trump to Biden: Will Anything Change for Pakistan in Washington?16Brace for more of the same when it comes to Pakistan-US relations under Joe Biden

New Development Bank

Why the BRICS Grouping Is Here to Stay18Western reactions to 12th BRICS Summit are largely dismissive, but critics overlook tangible benefits for member countries

Middle East Studies

No Exit Why the Middle East Still Matters to America20Washington needs to figure out its interests in the Middle East and craft a strategy to advance them

Natural Resources

As the World Burns Climate Change’s Dangerous Next Phase24By 2050, many areas around the world will face flood levels every year

Afghan Argument

It’s Time to Trust the Taliban28Afghanistan’s jihadi insurgents are ready to give America what it wants: defeat without humiliation

China-Taliban Relations

China’s Stake in the Afghan Peace Process30Afghanistan is already of strategic importance to Beijing. As U.S. troops leave, China’s influence will grow

Security Alliances

The Middle East Strategic Realignment Reverberates Through South Asia32As momentous as the slow collapse of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the strategic reorientation within the Middle East is, its impact on South Asiawill also be momentous

Pakistan Energy Shortage

Powering the Powerless in Pakistan34A roadmap to finally solving Pakistan’s energy crisis through “energy productivity”

Victoria Belt and Road

Australia and China: It’s Complicated36Even amid the current tensions, the state of the relationship is more complex than headlines would suggest

Opinion

Pak-US Relations and the Indian Factor40Pakistan has always accused the US of not understanding its regional interests

Point of View

In Support of Large Dams42Pakistan is blessed with a large hydroelectric potential and should not ignore it

Perspective

Umpteen Commissions on Civil Service Reforms43Unless the two sides come to consensus on problems of the civil service, no commission can reverse the downward trend

Military Vs Militants

Pak-Afghan Trust Deficit44The election of Joe Biden as US president has added new dimensions to the already complex situation

Strategic Studies

Can Biden Salvage The Iran Nuclear Deal?46Biden administration would have to first ascertain its expectations, pre-conditions prior to talks with Iranian govt

Middle East Landscape

What The Future Holds For Palestine?47The Palestinian struggle has long been an accepted moto in Arab/Muslim narrations and continues to be used to this day to mobilize the populace

World Bank

Apartheid in the World Bank and the IMF49These institutions were designed with colonial principles in mind, and they remain largely colonial in character to this day

US Presidency

Trump is Leaving Biden A Landmine Field in the Middle East50Biden will bring change to policy-making in Washington, but he will still struggle with Trump’s legacy

G-B Polling

The Importance of Being G-B53Nothing can bar G-B’s people from taking in their own hands power to self-rule with the region’s security underwritten

Coronavirus Pandemic

In the Time of Pandemic, Debt Relief Efforts Need to Go Further54For the global economy to recover quickly, not only the poorest but all small and vulnerable nations should have access to debt relief

Climate Change

Lessons Learned From COVID-19 Can Help Us Fight Climate Change56Just like COVID-19, climate change is destroying lives and ruining livelihoods on a daily bases across the world

December 2020 GLOBAL AGE 9|8 | GLOBAL AGE December 2020globalagemagazine.kipscss.net

Rizvi’s politics of agitation achieved nota- ing clashes with the security agencies. number of its National Assembly candi-ble gains. A few days before his death, he His party has always been accused dates was even more than those fielded was in the capital, demanding the expul- of getting support from various state by a bigger religio-political parties’ amal-

institutions. While Rizvi denied that his gam, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal party was working on someone’s agenda, (MMA).he often talked about revealing the Rizvi’s death is going to create a names of officials who asked him to huge challenge for the TLP’s second tier march to Islamabad for the 2017 sit-in of leadership. It is important to note here against former Prime Minister Nawaz that before Rizvi’s ascendance to power, Sharif’s government. In any case, that there were serious differences over the doesn’t mean that the TLP’s support question of leadership. Rizvi was able to base doesn’t exist. In the 2018 general sideline several other potential candi-election, the TLP was able to muster dates and consolidated power over the more than 2 million votes nationwide last few years. His death will ensure a sion of France’s ambassador to Pakistan and also won two provincial assembly fight among several groups within the over the issue of controversial cartoons seats in Sindh. In Punjab, Rizvi’s party party for the leadership of the group. depicting the prophet Mohammad. The fielded more candidates than the Paki- There has not been any other leader who government had no option but to sign an

even comes close to Rizvi’s persona. Thus, the succession process is expected to be tense and may divide the TLP into several groups. Rizvi’s son may be appointed as the leader of the party to head off any potential leadership battles.

In any case, the TLP’s support base across the country is genuine and will not go away with the death of Rizvi. “A leader’s death, however, instrumental or charismatic he may have been, is not enough to do away with an extremist organization. TLP’s ideology has strong roots in Pakistan, and many buyers,” said scholar Madiha Afzal on Twitter.

For the foreseeable future, we may not see a lot of activity from the TLP at the political end, but the party should be expected to return to the streets soon, and perhaps with increased support. If the party falters during the post-Rizvi transition phase, we may see a different agreement with Rizvi that promised leg- stan’s Peoples Party (PPP) and emerged group or leader emerging from the ashes.islative changes to fulfill his demands, as one of the most organized political

and also freed TLP workers arrested dur- parties in the province. Moreover, the

Radical Leader Khadim HussainRizvi is Dead – But His IdeologyWill Live On in Pakistan

Pakistan Islamists

Leader of a right-wing party with pull, Rizvi’s death will not diminish extremist politicsin Pakistan

globalagemagazine.kipscss.net

By Umair Jamal@UmairJamal15

s during the funeral service as the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in Lahore, Pakistan November 21, 2020.

People gather near an ambulance carrying the body of Khadim Hussain Rizvi, leader of religious and political party Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP),

s party Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), at the Minar-e-Pakistan monument as the outbreak of thecoronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in Lahore, Pakistan November 21, 2020.

People gather to attend funeral services for Khadim Hussain Rizvi, leader of religious and political

No other right-wing group in Paki- From securing resignations of ministers stan has challenged the state the way to shutting down cities and forcing the Rizvi’s group has been able to do at will. state into rethinking various policies,

Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the head o f t h e T e h r e e k - i - L a b a i k Pakistan (TLP), a group that has

been the face of right-wing agitation for some years in Pakistan and often brought the country’s capital to a standstill due to its anti-blasphemy rallies, died on November 19.

The reasons for Rizi’s death are unknown. Reportedly, he had been suf-fering from fever for several days. In any case, the demise of Rizi will have a lasting impact on Pakistan’s political landscape.

In Pakistan, Rizvi’s party has been perceived by most as a force to be reck-oned with over the last few years. For his followers, Rizvi was a charismatic leader who brought electoral relevancy to a religious group that has not been known for its street politics in Pakistan. When it comes to right-wing politics in Pakistan, Rizvi competed with several groups and leaders and virtually stole the limelight.

s his supporters during a protest against the cartoon publications of Prophet Mohammad in France andcomments by the French President Emmanuel Macron, in Karachi, Pakistan November 7, 2020.

Khadim Hussain Rizvi of religious and political party Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), gestures to

It is important to notehere that before Rizvi’sascendance to power,there were seriousdifferences over thequestion of leadership

December 2020 GLOBAL AGE 11|globalagemagazine.kipscss.net10 | GLOBAL AGE December 2020globalagemagazine.kipscss.net

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict:Diplomatic Repercussionsfor Pakistan

South Asia Conflict

While Nagorno-Karabakh is over 2,000 kilometers from Pakistan’s borders, its conflictsmay have a lasting effect on Pakistan’s diplomacy

By Shahid HussainLondon, United Kingdom

Baku and Yerevan, Turkey’s military and victory “will pave the way for the return political support was vital and contrib- of internally displaced people to their uted to a number of Azerbaijani military ancestral lands,” a clear statement of victories. These victories eventually cul- support for Azerbaijan’s historic right to minated in a Russia-backed peace deal, Nagorno-Karabakh. Pakistan has which returned vast swathes of disputed repeatedly supported Azerbaijan’s posi-territory to Baku’s control. However, tion on the dispute at the United Nations while many commentators have cited and other international forums. While Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan, it is also its support for Azerbaijan is hardly sur-important to acknowledge the wider prising, the diplomatic repercussions for support given to Baku by its other major Islamabad may be far-reaching.ally, Pakistan. Many Armenians believed their

As soon as the Russian-brokered former patron, Russia, would provide peace deal came to light, Pakistan issued substantial military support to the Arme-a statement congratulating the “broth- nian separatist forces in Nagorno-erly people of Azerbaijan on the libera- Karabakh, citing the dangerous role Tur-tion of their territories.” The press key was playing in the conflict. Russia’s release went one step further, saying decision not to intervene militarily in the Pakistan hoped for a period of “stability conflict, and its refusal to send fighters to and prosperity” and that Azerbaijan’s the disputed enclave, is the result of a

Armenia and Azerbaijan each claim a historical and religious connection to the region of

Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian claim rests on the fact the territory was part of a larger medieval Christian Armenian polity, whose borders far exceeded the boundaries of modern day Armenia. Azerbaijan also claims a historical connection to the land, arguing the territory was frequently invaded and ruled by Muslim Ottoman Turks throughout the late medieval and early modern period. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the two countries have fought a number of times over the region, which is largely recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been occupied by Armenia for decades.

In the most recent conflict between

leader Ali Khamenei arguing that Putin decided to remain neutral in the “Azerbaijan has the right to liberate its conflict.occupied territories.” The diplomatic It is also important to note Israel’s

support for Baku, raising the prospect of a reset between Tel Aviv and Islamabad, particularly given their shared support for Azerbaijan. During the recent con-flict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the Israeli-made IAI Harop drone was reportedly deployed to devastating effect against Armenian forces. Israel’s support was solidified after the country’s ambassador to Azerbaijan visited the city of Ganja to offer his condolences to civilian victims of Armenian rocket attacks. Their shared support for Azerbaijan, combined with Israel’s recent peace deals with Arab Muslim states, including the UAE and Bahrain, may potentially bring Paki-stan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan closer to establishing formal diplomatic rela-tions with Israel. In fact, just this month, Khan said he was “under pressure” to recognize Israel. The fact that the two sides also support a common ally in the Caucasus could act to bring them closer together.

Peace has been re-established in the Caucasus for now and Pakistan can stand to benefit in many ways, not only by strengthening its relationship with Azerbaijan, but also by using the conflict as a springboard to further the Russia-Pakistan détente, as well as raising the tantalizing prospects of closer relations with Israel. While Nagorno-Karabakh is

fallout for Russia from supporting Arme-over 2,000 kilometers from Pakistan’s

nia would have potentially upset its rela-borders, its conflicts may have a lasting

tionship with its firm ally Iran and also effect on Pakistan’s diplomacy.

threatened to destabilize the recent détente with Pakistan. Perhaps this is one of the reasons President Vladimir

complex web of diplomatic relationships in the region. Among those factors is the recent strengthening of ties between Moscow and Islamabad. Pakistan and Russia have conducted joint military drills and the South Asian nation partici-pated in recent war games hosted by Russia. Pakistan could be an important partner for Russia, particularly given that the two can play an active role in settling regional disputes, including in Afghanistan. The fact that Pakistan’s recent statement acknowledged Russia’s role in ending the fighting is a subtle nod to Moscow’s importance to Pakistan and the wider region.

Russia may also have wanted to avoid upsetting another of its South Asian allies. Whilst playing a delicate balancing act between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Iran still issued frequent state-ments of support for Baku, with supreme

s Nagorno-Karabakh, on November 17, 2020.

Russian peacekeepers’ military vehicles with Russian national flags parked at a check point on the road to Shusha in the separatist region of

s Islamabad hopes liberation of territories ‘will pave way for return of internally displaced persons to ancestral lands’.

s being used by Azerbaijani forces.

An Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition, commonly called suicide drones, widely reported as

Israel’s support wassolidified after thecountry’s ambassadorto Azerbaijan visited thecity of Ganja to offer hiscondolences to civilianvictims of Armenianrocket attacks


Pakistan’s Prime Minister Khan on‘Historic’ First Visit to Afghanistan

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations

By Rahim FaiezKabul, Afghanistan

The uneasy neighbors are trying to turn the corner from a relationship marked bysuspicion and downright hostility toward a partnership for peace in the region

Armenia and Azerbaijan each claim a historical and religious connection to the region of

Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian claim rests on the fact the territory was part of a larger medieval Christian Armenian polity, whose borders far exceeded the boundaries of modern day Armenia. Azerbaijan also claims a historical connection to the land, arguing the territory was frequently invaded and ruled by Muslim Ottoman Turks throughout the late medieval and early modern period. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the two countries have fought a number of times over the region, which is largely recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has been occupied by Armenia for decades.

In the most recent conflict between Pakistani Prime Minister Imran

Khan met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on his first official visit to Kabul on Thursday, focusing on the ongoing peace talks with the Taliban as well as on building trust and strengthening rela-tions between the two often acrimonious neighbors.

Ghani called Khan’s visit “historic” while the Pakistani prime minister assured the Afghan leader that his gov-ernment would do “everything possible” to help reduce violence in the war-torn country.

The visit comes at a crucial time for Afghanistan as Kabul government nego-tiators and the Taliban are holding U.S.-brokered negotiations in Qatar, where the Taliban maintain a political office, to chart a course for a post-war Afghani-stan.

“You come with a with a series of very important messages … but funda-mental to this is that violence is not an answer, a comprehensive political settle-ment for an enduring peace within the framework of our values, our Constitu-tion in the Islamic Republic is the way to the future,” Ghani told Khan at the presi-dential palace.

Khan acknowledged Pakistan had played a key role in getting the Taliban to the negotiating table and that Islamabad remains concerned that “despite the

talks in Qatar, the level of violence is ris-ing.”

“Whatever is possible, we will do to help reduce the violence,” and help move the Afghan-Taliban talks toward a cease-fire, Khan said. “The whole objective of this visit is to build trust, to communi-cate more. … We will be helping you.”

Neither of the leaders addressed this week’s announcement from Wash-ington of an accelerated U.S. troop with-drawal from Afghanistan, which has rattled both sides in the Afghan conflict. There are fears of worsening violence and regional chaos, which some say could embolden the Islamic State group’s local affiliate to regroup and perhaps even try to build another “ca-liphate.”

Under an earlier deal between the U.S. and the Taliban that outlined a grad-ual pullout, the remaining U.S. forces were to leave Afghanistan by next April. The Pentagon now says some 2,500

troops will leave by January, just days before President-elect Joe Biden’s inau-guration, leaving another 2,000 or so U.S. forces in place.

Pakistan has been applauded by Washington and Kabul for its role in getting the Taliban to the peace table, first in direct talks with the United States, which resulted in an agreement that led to the so-called intra-Afghan negotiations now underway in Doha.

Khan’s visit followed that of Afghan-istan’s chief peace envoy Abdullah Abdullah, who visited Pakistan in Sep-tember as the uneasy neighbors turned a corner from a relationship marked by suspicion and downright hostility toward a partnership for peace in the region.

While in Islamabad, Abdullah urged Pakistan’s powerful military to use its influence to press the Taliban to reduce attacks and the level of violence. The insurgents, who hosted Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida until their regime was toppled by the 2001 U.S.-led inva-sion, now have control over half of Afghanistan.

However, many Afghans still view Pakistan with deep mistrust, blaming it for the resurgence of the Taliban and for giving the insurgents a safe haven from which to operate.

Also, Pakistan is seen by many in Afghanistan as wanting to keep the Taliban as possible leverage against influence in Afghanistan by its long-time enemy India, which has been critical of any post-war government in Afghani-stan that would include the Taliban.

Last month, Pakistan came forward with a dossier allegedly presenting evidence of India’s

involvement in funding terrorist activities in the country. In a joint press conference, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and the director-general of the ISPR, Major General Babar Iftikhar, revealed documentary evidence that has never been shared publicly before.

While the veracity of the evidence remains open for debate, depending upon how one looks at it, one thing that requires explanation is the timing of the revelations.

It is likely that Pakistan’s security agencies have been sitting on the evi-dence for some time, waiting for an ideal opportunity to make it public. It is important to note here that this is not the first time that Pakistan has shared a dos-sier alleging Indian attempts to destabilize the country. Previously, how-ever, details hardly presented any proof with documents, videos, audios, local links, and conversations.

One explanation for the revelations at this time is that Islamabad is trying to get the attention of the incoming govern-ment in the United States. However, experts believe that it is unlikely to yield any concrete results for Pakistan. “Re-garding the allegations, there are docu-mented links between India and some anti-Pakistan groups. Given what Paki-stan has done to India in the past, India has incentives to hit back. But in DC (and beyond), where Pakistan still has major credibility issues, there will be skepti-cism,” tweeted Michael Kugelman.

Explaining Pakistan’s motives behind the latest revelation, Avinash Paliwal noted on Twitter that “This might be meant to set the tone for the Biden’s approach on India,” but he believes it will “not make much of a dent on U.S. approach towards India.”

“It will not dissuade India from car-rying out offensive operations vis-a-vis Pakistan. In Indian eyes, the payback is too late, too little, and very legitimate. Pakistan, which has used proxy warfare as a policy tool for decades, will have

little international political support on this,” Paliwal added.

Over the past few days, Pakistan and India have been going back and forth to reject each other’s claims and the matter is likely to die down as more develop-ments pile up in the coming days. More importantly, as President Donald Trump continues to delay President-elect Joe Biden’s transition to the White House, it is unlikely that anyone in Washington is even paying attention to Pakistan’s claims at this point. However, this does-n’t mean that the claims do not carry any significance and do not require scrutiny from the international community.

The more important and neglected explanation of the military’s decision to disclose an alleged Indian hand in spreading terrorism in Pakistan has to do with domestic politics.

Arguably, the timing of the disclo-sure underscores the government’s attempt to take back political space from the opposition parties over the question of the military’s support for the current regime. The entire press conference was prepared and presented meticulously, ensuring that it was covered by all possi-ble mediums in Pakistan. The entire state machinery — from the prime minis-ter and the government’s social media accounts to the country’s electronic media — volubly maintained the irrefutability of the evidence presented. Moreover, with the latest revelations, Pakistan’s security apparatus has gained plenty of praise for its diligence and exposing New Delhi’s alliance with a number of domestic militant groups and

personnel.It is important to note that some of

the individuals mentioned in the dossier belong to groups that have recently got-ten coverage from the opposition parties’ rallies against the government and its support base within the country’s secu-rity establishment. For instance, the opposition parties’ Quetta rally talked a b o u t t h e m i s s i n g p e r s o n s i n Balochistan, with the leader of the Paki-stan Muslim League-Nawaz, Maryam Nawaz, even criticizing the government on the issue.

The press conference placed plenty of focus on exposing the links of Balochistan-based militant groups with India, and in the process, nullified the opposition’s narrative against the national security establishment. So far, opposition parties have been quiet about the explosive disclosure and have resisted making any major statements.

If nothing else, the attempt boosts the government’s political standing to some extent and restores the military’s leadership position back to where it was before the opposition starting its naming and shaming campaign. The govern-ment is planning to ban all political gath-erings across the country, ostensibly due to the rising COVID-19 cases.

As it appears, there is a major war of narratives underway to discredit the opposition and undermine any momen-tum that they may have built with their previous rallies. The latest disclosures about India are important ammunition in the hands of the government in that war.

Afghanistan’s chiefpeace envoy AbdullahAbdullah, who visitedPakistan in Septemberas the uneasy neighborsturned a corner from arelationship marked bysuspicion and downrighthostility toward apartnership for peacein the region

What Explains the Timing ofPakistan’s Anti-India Dossier?

Pakistan-India Relations


Islamabad has come forward with evidence about India’s role in spreading terrorism inPakistan. That might be a politically smart move


On November 1, Pakistan Prime the region as part of greater Kashmir. since Gilgit-Baltistan was a part of the M i n i s t e r I m r a n K h a n “Firmly” rejecting Pakistan’s attempt “to former princely state of Jammu and announced his government’s alter the status of these Indian territo- Kashmir, whose Maharaja acceded to

decision to grant Gilgit-Baltistan ries,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs India, it is legally India’s.“provisional provincial status.” called on Pakistan “to immediately However, it appears that the hold of

In the far north of Pakistan- vacate all areas under its illegal occupa- the Maharaja over Gilgit-Baltistan, and controlled territory, GilgitBaltistan is tion.” especially Gilgit, was at best notional as strategically located. It shares bound- Pakistan is scheduled to hold elec- he had leased the area to the British. aries with Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corri- tions to the Gilgit-Baltistan legislative When the Maharaja signed the Instru-dor, China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autono- assembly on November 15. India has ment of Accession with India in October mous Region, India’s Jammu and Kash- strongly objected to this on the grounds 1947 to defend his territory from a Paki-m i r , a n d P a k i s t a n ’ s K h y b e r - that Pakistan has “no locus standi on stan-backed tribal invasion, the Gilgit Pakhtunkhwa province, as well as a Paki- territories illegally and forcibly occupied Scouts, a local military force headed by stan-controlled swathe of territory in by it.” the British, mutinied and demanded western Kashmir that Islamabad refers India regards Gilgit-Baltistan as accession to Pakistan.to as “Azad Kashmir.” Indian territory. A part of the former Pakistani analysts argue that the

The Pakistani decision will impact princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, people of Gilgit-Baltistan therefore the residents of Gilgit-Baltistan signifi- Gilgit-Baltistan comprises a major joined Pakistan of their own free will.cantly. They will now become Pakistani chunk of the territory Pakistan occupied India has a different perception of citizens. Provincial status for Gilgit- during its war with India that year. Gilgit-Baltistan’s relationship with Baltistan will also have implications for Gilgit-Baltistan together with Azad Kash- Jammu and Kashmir. It argues that even Kashmiris as well as for India and China. mir is referred to by New Delhi as Paki- if Gilgit-Baltistan was on lease to the

Khan’s announcement evoked a stan Occupied Kashmir (POK). British, with the lapse of British para-swift response from India, which claims According to the Indian argument, mountcy, Gilgit came under the

The Complex Calculus BehindGilgit-Baltistan’s Provincial Upgrade

Gilgit-Baltistan Reforms

Kashmir, India, and China: The creation of Pakistan’s newest province will havefar-flung geopolitical ripples

By Sudha RamachandranBengaluru, India

said that the people of these regions and Gilgit had written to him expressing grat-itude to him for raising his voice against Pakistan’s atrocities against them.

Modi’s reference to the human rights situation in these regions, espe-cially at a time when Gilgit was roiled in unrest over Pakistan’s crackdown on local activists protesting CPEC, set alarm bells ringing in Islamabad and Beijing. Would India’s expression of sympathy for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan groups provide a shot in the arm to anti-Pakistan activists and orga-nizations there? Would it worsen the security situation, putting at risk CPEC projects?

tional community and Kashmiris in par- Even more worrying to China and ticular that it was committed to their Pakistan was the statement India’s independence. Home Minister Amit Shah made a day

So what lies beneath Islamabad to after Kashmir’s autonomy was revoked make Gilgit-Baltistan a Pakistani prov- in 2019. Declaring that the “entire ince now? Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part

Chinese pressure appears to have of the Union of India,” Shah clarified in prompted Islamabad’s decision. his speech to Parliament that Jammu

Gilgit-Baltistan is the only overland and Kashmir included territories under link between China and Pakistan and is Pakistani occupation including Gilgit-key to the China-Pakistan Economic Baltistan as well as Aksai Chin (which is Corridor. All of CPEC’s roads, railway under Chinese occupation).lines, and oil and gas pipelines linking A n d A r m y C h i e f G e n e r a l Pakistan with China have to go through BipinRawat, who is currently India’s the territory. Without Gilgit-Baltistan, chief of defense staff, had said in Sep-CPEC would not be possible. Having tember 2018 that the army is prepared made multi-billion dollar investments in for “an operation to retrieve Pakistan-CPEC projects, China is keen to ensure occupied Kashmir from the clutches of that its projects have legal and constitu- Pakistan, if the government wants so.”tional validity. It has therefore been push- It is likely that India’s robust reiter-ing Pakistan since 2015 to confer consti- ation of its claims over Pakistan Occu-tutional status on Gilgit-Baltistan. pied Kashmir in recent years and its

In addition to Chinese pressure, the stated willingness to wrest back control Imran Khan government’s decision over territories under Pakistani occupa-appears to be a response to India’s deci- tion speeded up Pakistan’s decision to sion in August last year to revoke Jammu bestow provincial status on Gilgit-and Kashmir’s autonomy and to inte- Baltistan.grate it more closely into the Indian Islamabad’s announcement on Union by bringing it under New Delhi’s Gilgit-Baltistan being bestowed with direct rule. Drawing Gilgit-Baltistan into provincial status has been opposed by Pakistan as a province is Islamabad’s Kashmiri separatists, who are calling on rejoinder to New Delhi’s decision. Pakistan to rethink its decision as it is

Both the Pakistani and Chinese gov- “demoralizing Kashmiri people and ernments have been watching with debilitating their ongoing struggle for apprehension the growing muscularity the right to self-determination.”of the present Indian government. Since By conferring provincial status on 2014 when it came to power, the Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan will be BharatiyaJanata Party (BJP), which strengthening India’s long-standing takes a hard line on Jammu and Kash- argument that Islamabad’s so-called mir, has issued statements that have support to the Kashmiri cause is not so rattled Islamabad and Beijing. Some of much about supporting their right to these were a reassertion of India’s inter- self-determination and independence est and claims over Gilgit-Baltistan. but a bid to annex the territory of all of

In August 2016, for instance, India’s Kashmir.Prime Minister NarendraModi prom- In that context, will its extension of ised an all-party delegation that he provisional provincial status to Gilgit-would take up the issue of the Pakistan Baltistan, pending final settlement of the government’s atrocities in Balochistan dispute with India over Kashmir, work to and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir at vari- convince Kashmiris that Islamabad is ous international forums. In his Inde- still espousing their cause for independ-pendence Day speech two days later, he ence?

Maharaja’s rule again. And since the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession with India, Gilgit-Baltistan is an integral part of the Indian Union.

In the seven decades since Gilgit-Baltistan came under Pakistani occupa-tion, it has remained under Islamabad’s control, while India continues to lay claim to it.

Interestingly, not only is Gilgit-Baltistan disputed territory but also its status in Pakistan has remained fuzzy. Official maps of Pakistan include this region but it finds no mention in the Paki-stani constitution. Residents of Gilgit-Baltistan are not citizens of Pakistan but they pay taxes to the Pakistan govern-ment. And although a 2009 ordinance provided for self-rule in Gilgit-Baltistan, this is in name only as the region is tightly controlled by Islamabad, with few powers vested in the Gilgit-Baltistan assembly.

Pakistan chose to keep Gilgit-Baltistan in a state of limbo all these years because it feared that annexing Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir would formalize the de facto division of Jammu and Kashmir and weaken Islamabad’s claims to territory under New Delhi’s control. Furthermore, it was keen to project an image to the interna-

s Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan during a visit to Gilgit-Baltistan on Nov. 1, 2020.

Gilgit-Baltistan is theonly overland linkbetween China andPakistan and is key tothe China-PakistanEconomic Corridor.All of CPEC’s roads,railway lines, and oiland gas pipelineslinking Pakistan withChina have to go throughthe territory. WithoutGilgit-Baltistan, CPECwould not be possible

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From Trump to Biden: WillAnything Change for Pakistan inWashington?

US Pakistan Policy

Brace for more of the same when it comes to Pakistan-US relations under Joe Biden


While many other Asian Pakistan to gain concessions. Certainly, greater role in Afghanistan. As we have l e a d e r s s i m p l y c o n g - under Biden, Pakistan will have to work seen under the Obama and Trump ratulated Biden, Khan was hard to plug loopholes in its money- administrations, Biden’s relationship

oddly specific in his message. In a way, laundering laws. with Pakistan will be driven by his message shows Islamabad’s policy Moreover, Biden’s presidency also Islamabad’s assistance to the United concerns that could become a challenge means that Pakistan may again go back States in Afghanistan. Biden may not under the Biden presidency. to the Obama era’s “Af-Pak” approach bring back the Af-Pak hyphenation to

Khan, in his message, said that he when it comes to Washington’s dealings describe his Pakistan and Afghanistan looks forward to working with Biden to with Islamabad. The term “Af-Pak” had policy, but behind closed doors, that is end illegal tax heavens. Arguably, the been met with a lot of disapproval in Paki- likely what Pakistan is going to get from message underscores Pakistan’s con- stan in the past. Showing resentment Biden’s White House. Arguably, Presi-cerns with the Biden administration’s toward Obama’s policy of hyphenating dent Donald Trump has followed the possible view of Islamabad’s position at Pakistan with Afghanistan, former Pres- same approach with his regional strategy the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). ident Asif Ali Zardari said: “Afghanistan linking Afghanistan and South Asia.It is important to note here that the and Pakistan are distinctively different Under the Trump administration, Obama administration advocated add- countries, and should not be lumped Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace pro-ing Pakistan to the FATF’s grey-list due together in the generic label of Af-Pak.” cess has remained critical. In the short to the country’s weak anti-money laun- However, the Obama administra- run, Pakistan doesn’t need to worry dering structures. Biden served as tion termed Pakistan’s role as key in sta- much unless the new administration Obama’s vice president through both of bilizing Afghanistan. It is expected that introduces substantial changes to the his terms in the White House and he Biden will continue with the same existing approach of finding a political understands how and where to push approach of pushing Pakistan to play a settlement in Afghanistan in coopera-

power in the U.S. mir, but he will not jeopardize the United At this point, Islamabad may not be States’ relationship with India.

sure how the Biden administration will This again leaves Pakistan in the view India’s role in Afghanistan. Paki- usual position when it comes to the coun-stan remains adamant that India cannot try’s relationship with the U.S.: What is have any substantial role in the Afghan Islamabad’s value for Washington if the

tion with the Afghan Taliban. peace process. How will Pakistan’s Afghan peace process concludes suc-In his policy statements, Biden has approach change if Biden allowed India cessfully? Beyond the security-focused

maintained that Washington “needs more role in Afghanistan? lens, what is it that will keep Washington special ops capacity to coordinate with Many in Islamabad are hopeful that interested in Islamabad once Afghani-our allies” and any troops withdrawal under Biden, India will not get a free pass stan goes out of the picture? It is possible from Afghanistan should be done on Kashmir and the reported human that under the Biden administration, the responsibly. This essentially means that rights violations there. In the past, Biden India-Pakistan conflict may get greater Biden may review the U.S.-Taliban deal has made plenty of noise about Prime coverage and increase the possibility of and may not withdraw troops under the Minister Narendra Modi’s Kashmir pol- U.S. intervention but that in no way will agreed timeline. Further, the Biden icy. However, it is unlikely that Biden translate to Islamabad’s gain.administration may bring more focus to will push it to a point where it annoys Under Biden, not much will change conditions like Taliban’s severing of ties India. It is important to note that for the for Pakistan. The usual script of a with Al-Qaida, reduction in violence and U.S., China is going to be the key concern transactional relationship driven by more. The peace process may very well in the region, and India’s role in this cal- both states’ security needs will deter-be more complicated from here onward culus remains vital for Washington. mine the contours of Pakistan-U.S. bilat-as Taliban are not going to make any Biden may make all the right noises eral cooperation.concessions regardless of who is in about human rights violations in Kash-

s the Situation Room of the White House, February 17, 2010.

President Barack Obama talks with Vice President Joe Biden at the conclusion of a meeting with his national security team on Afghanistan and Pakistan in

s Senator Richard Lugar favored a proposal to bring $ 1.5 billion non-military aid to Pakistan. Lugar wasalso awarded ‘Hilal-e-Pakistan.’

In 2008, Pakistan awarded Biden the second-highest civilian honor, ‘Hilal-e-Pakistan.’ Joe Biden and

Many in Islamabadare hopeful that underBiden, India will not geta free pass on Kashmirand the reported humanrights violations there.In the past, Biden hasmade plenty of noiseabout Prime MinisterNarendra Modi’sKashmir policy.However, it is unlikelythat Biden will push it toa point where it annoysIndia, he will notjeopardize the UnitedStates’ relationshipwith India

December 2020 GLOBAL AGE 19|18 | GLOBAL AGE December 2020globalagemagazine.kipscss.net globalagemagazine.kipscss.net

Why the BRICS Grouping Is Hereto Stay

New Development Bank

Western reactions to 12th BRICS Summit are largely dismissive, but critics overlooktangible benefits for member countries

By Oliver Stuenkel@OliverStuenkel

s The leaders of BRICS member nations during a previous meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019.

In what has become a yearly ritual, yearly meetings in other areas, including world. In the same way, frequent and columnists in Western newspapers public health, agriculture, and educa- growing geopolitical tensions between used this week’s BRICS’ Leaders tion. Most remarkably, even the election China and India trouble their bilateral

Summits to question the grouping’s of Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist relationship, but have not led to the existence and predict or recommend its who admires the United States and fre- group’s demise. Perhaps most impor-demise. In the Wall Street Journal, quently attacks China, as president of tantly, in 2014 the grouping created the Sadan and Dhume argued last month Brazil has not noticeably altered the New Development Bank, and the bank is that “the five-member club makes less group’s commitment to continuing its currently preparing to accept new mem-sense than ever” and recommended that, process of slow institutionalization. bers – most likely Uruguay, the United “instead of building up Brics, India During the past years, BRICS sum- Arab Emirates and the Philippines – should help dismantle it.” mits have seen their fair share of ten- thus expanding its global footprint.

These same arguments have existed sions, to be sure. During the grouping’s There are four reasons why calls for for nearly a decade. Just like in 2011, 11th Leaders Summit in Brazil last year, or predictions of the BRICS grouping’s when the Financial Times’ Philipp Bolsonaro canceled the BRICS outreach, demise are premature.Stevens announced that it was “time to a parallel summit where regional leaders First of all, critics, especially in the bid farewell to BRICS,” writers point to are invited by the host to meet with West, tend to blow the differences the many differences between the five BRICS presidents, after the Brazilian between BRICS countries out of propor-member countries, contrasting China’s president had insisted on inviting Vene- tion or overlook what unites the five and Russia’s authoritarian political sys- zuela’s Juan Guaidó, whom none of the member countries. Commentators fre-tems with democracy in Brazil, India, other BRICS countries recognize as pres- quently point to profound differences and South Africa, and pointing to con- ident. The situation was privately criti- between BRICS countries on issues such flicting geopolitical interests and funda- cized by diplomats from other BRICS as U.N. Security Council reform, sup-mentally different economic realities. member countries, given that their ported by India, Brazil and South Africa,

And yet, the BRICS countries stub- respective presidents would have liked but rejected by Russia and China. Yet few bornly hold not only yearly presidential to use the opportunity of meeting up question the usefulness of the EU, summits, but also regular consultations with presidents from across Latin Amer- NATO, or the G-7 despite equally fre-between foreign ministers and national ica – and yet, no president considered quent internal disagreements – Ger-security advisors, along with countless cancelling the trip halfway around the many, for example, is part of the G-4 and

supports reforming the U.N. Security BRICS are seeking to overcome. meetings between high-ranking govern-Council, while Italy opposes the group- It was thus no coincidence that ment ministers and pre-scheduled ing. In the same way, there are numerous three of the five most prominent leaders facetime with Xi provided a welcome examples of democracies working with who have so far chosen not to congratu- excuse for Bolsonaro to tone down his non-democracies being part of the same late U.S. President-elect Joe Biden are anti-China rhetoric and adopt a more club – just think of NATO and Turkey, BRICS members. While the govern- pragmatic approach as the 11th BRICS which saw its democracy flounder ments of Brazil’s Bolsonaro and Russia’s Summit was approaching. In an increas-numerous times since becoming a mem- Putin have not commented on the elec- ingly China-centric world, actively dis-ber. tion at all, China’s Xi Jinping decided to mantling the BRICS grouping would

More importantly, most pundits delegate the task to Foreign Ministry seem like a diplomatic own goal, particu-overlook that, despite different political spokesman Wang Wenbin. Their reac- larly for South Africa and Brazil, who are systems, economic characteristics, and tion to Trump’s defeat is no coincidence. still struggling to adapt to a post-geopolitical rivalries, the BRICS mem- While the current U.S. president Western world.bers share a profound skepticism of the attacked the liberal international order Finally, not only is the cost of BRICS U.S.-led international liberal order and the United States had helped create, and membership limited, but the diplomatic the perceived danger unipolarity repre- favored a world shaped by great powers benefits it generates remain significant. sents to their interests. This commit- and spheres of influence, Biden symbol- For Bolsonaro, for example, hosting Xi, ment often trumps other aspects often izes, from the BRICS’ perspectives, a Putin, India’s Narendra Modi and South seen as more important from a Western return to the pre-Trump world, as the Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa last year will perspective. The crisis in Venezuela recent article “Why America Must Lead stand out as the most important diplo-offers a useful example: Despite Again“ in the magazine Foreign Affairs matic event of his presidency, allowing Bolsonaro’s anti-socialist convictions attests. him to look statesman-like. Particularly and decision to no longer recognize Nich- In addition, the economic rationale now that Bolsonaro faces growing diplo-olas Maduro as president, the Brazilian for keeping the BRICS grouping alive matic isolation in the West over Brazil’s government ended up siding with the remains sound. Over the past two environmental record, the BRICS serve Venezuelan dictator in rejecting the decades, trade and investment among as all-weather friends who would never United States’ rhetoric about a potential the five member countries skyrocketed, openly criticize Brazil’s internal matters. military intervention, which, Latin Amer- even though it is still largely limited to In the same way, it is often forgotten that ican leaders feared, was setting a danger- each member countries’ ties to China. the BRICS allowed Putin to host pomp-ous precedent. A similar dynamic Given growing economic dependence ous summits with numerous interna-became apparent in 2014, when the across the grouping on Chinese demand tional leaders at a time when the West BRICS countries refused to criticize Rus- and investment, voluntarily rejecting the actively sought to isolate Russia’s presi-sia’s President Vladimir Putin after the possibility for cabinet members and hun- dent.annexation of Crimea, widely seen as a dreds of bureaucrats to engage their Chi- Even as the 12th BRICS Summit flagrant violation of international law. nese counterparts sounds implausible – generated very little international visi-Despite the BRICS countries’ strong particularly given that mutual knowl- bility – in part because it took place vir-commitment to non-intervention and edge among BRICS members, particu- tually, and in part because it was eclipsed the defense of sovereignty, they consid- larly between Brazil, South Africa, and by other events such as the US elections ered the United States’ forceful response the group’s Asian members, is still very – member countries are very unlikely to – including sanctions and pressure on limited. heed the often-voiced advice to disman-others to diplomatically isolate Russia – BRICS meetings can also stabilize tle the BRICS grouping.as a symbol of a unipolar order that the bilateral ties. For example, the yearly


No Exit Why the Middle East StillMatters to America

Middle East Studies

Washington needs to figure out its interests in the Middle East and craft a strategy toadvance them

By Steven A. Cook@stevenacook

T

GET OUT

he record of American failure in overhaul. intends to abdicate its leading role, the Middle East over the last two A new consensus has formed among China and Russia have emerged as alter-decades is long and dismaying. U.S. foreign policy elites: it is time for native power brokers: a negative devel-

The most obvious catastrophe was the Washington to acknowledge that it no opment not only for Washington but for 2003 invasion of Iraq. But the trouble longer has vital interests in the region the people of the region, as well. To pre-started long before that fiasco. The U.S. and vastly reduce its ambitions accord- vent a worst-case scenario, in which victory in the Cold War, the “third wave” ingly, retrench its forces, and perhaps regional actors take matters into their of democratization around the world, even end the era of “endless wars” by own hands, sowing more instability, and the wealth that globalization withdrawing from the Middle East alto- more chaos, and more bloodshed, Wash-generated were positive developments, gether. After two difficult decades, such ington needs to snap out of it, figure out but they also produced a toxic mix of arguments might seem compelling. But its real interests in the Middle East, and American arrogance and overambition. leaving the Middle East is not a sound craft a strategy to advance them. Across the political spectrum, officials policy. Washington still has critical and analysts came to believe that Middle interests there that are worth protecting, Eastern societies needed Washington’s even if political, technological, and social Those calling for scaling back, retrench-help and that the United States could use changes have made those interests less ing, or withdrawing from the Middle its power in constructive ways in the vital than they were decades ago. Instead East were once voices in the wilderness. region. What followed were fruitless of using U.S. power to remake the region, Not anymore: what was once a fringe quests to transform Arab societies, however, policymakers need to embrace position has become the conventional resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the more realistic and realizable goal of wisdom. Take, for example, three places stamp out jihadism, and end Iran’s establishing and preserving stability. in the region that have bedeviled Wash-development of nuclear technology. The Unfortunately, all the loose talk in ington over the last decade: Syria, Libya, fact that five Arab countries are now in recent years about withdrawal has and Iran. In 2011, only a few lonely various stages of collapse contributes to undermined Washington’s influence. voices argued for a U.S. military inter-an overall sense within Washington that Thanks to a perception among Middle vention after Syria’s dictator, Bashar al-the U.S. approach requires a radical Eastern leaders that the United States

Assad, moved to crush a popular upris- Throughout the Cold War and Saddam Hussein’s regime. This was an ing. Meanwhile, opposition to the use of through the first decade of this century, extraordinary blunder given that Iraq force in Congress, at the White House, in ensuring cheap gasoline for U.S. con- did not in fact possess weapons of mass the Pentagon, and among the foreign sumers, supporting Israeli security, destruction. To the extent that they care policy commentariat was overwhelming. fighting terrorists, and preventing the about the issue at all, most Americans, Similarly, that same year, when the Lib- proliferation of weapons of mass including many in the foreign policy com-yan strongman Muammar al-Qaddafi destruction were all goals that Ameri- munity, now see nonproliferation as a threatened to massacre his way out of a cans and their leaders demonstrated a problem best solved through diplo-rebellion, most U.S. officials and ana- willingness to spend resources on and macy—or at least a problem that does not lysts agreed that the American role even sacrifice lives for. All four remain require the kind of military infrastruc-should be limited to establishing a no-fly important, but they have become less ture the United States currently main-zone to prevent the regime from using critical in recent years. The boom in tains in the region. airpower. The question of what to do hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has about Iran’s nuclear program generated allowed the United States to become more debate than did the conflicts in energy independent (or nearly so). This If safeguarding the flow of oil, protecting Syria and Libya, and a number of influ- has raised questions among political Israel, fighting terrorism, and prevent-ential voices advocated U.S. military leaders and analysts about whether pro- ing the proliferation of weapons of mass action. But the primary disagreement tecting the free flow of fossil fuels from destruction no longer make the Middle was not about whether to use force or the Middle East is worth the investment East a priority for American foreign pol-pursue diplomacy but about whether the to the United States. icy or justify a significant U.S. military deal that the Obama administration even- Israel continues to enjoy significant presence there, then what does? The tually crafted represented the best possi- U.S. support, but demographic and answer is that, when managed properly, ble diplomatic outcome. political changes in the United States the U.S. presence in the region offers a

Perhaps the most striking example will likely reduce Washington’s largess degree of stability in a part of the world of the shift in establishment views about in the coming decades. And it is increas- wracked by violence, collapsing states, using force in the Middle East was the ingly hard to make the case that Israel and resurgent authoritarians. A Middle U.S. reaction to the September 2019 still needs U.S. assistance. Israel is a rich East shaped by a high degree of U.S. attack on oil installations in Saudi Ara- country with an advanced economy that involvement is hardly a bastion of liberal bia, which most Western intelligence is well integrated with the rest of the democracy and prosperity. But a truly agencies believe was carried out by Iran. world, especially in the information tech- post-American Middle East would be For the better part of the last 40 years, it nology sector. Its per capita GDP is on even worse.has been a policy of the United States to par with those of France and the United Start with Iran. The United States defend the oil fields of the Persian Gulf. Kingdom, and Israel’s strategic position has been unable to coerce or cajole the Yet when an apparent Iranian attack has never been better. Iran remains a Islamic Republic into abandoning its temporarily took a significant portion of challenge, but the Israel Defense Forces quest for nuclear weapons, ceasing its the world’s oil supply off the market, can deter Tehran and its allies, and the support for terrorist groups, or ending American foreign policy specialists Israelis have a far more sophisticated its brutal repression of its own citizens. across the political spectrum raised military than any of their neighbors. At this point, Washington should dis-alarms not about Iran’s aggression but Israel has developed its ties with Arab pense with those goals. Instead, it should about the potentially grave conse- countries in the Persian Gulf, including pursue a more efficient and less danger-quences of a U.S. military response. Such normalizing relations with Bahrain and ous policy: containment. This would restraint may have been appropriate, but the United Arab Emirates—even as it has mean taking regime change off the table the near-total absence of debate was tightened its half-century grip on the but limiting the exercise of Iranian remarkable. After all, the most impor- West Bank. Put simply, Israel is no lon- power around the region by establishing tant strategic rationale for the U.S. pres- ger an embattled ally. implicit rules about acceptable Iranian ence in the region—and the justification At the same time, terrorism no lon- behavior. Containment is not just an for spending billions of dollars over ger exerts anything like the force it once exercise in diplomatic hardball, how-decades to ensure U.S. military predomi- did on U.S. foreign policy. The United ever; it requires the presence of military nance in the area—was the need to pre- States has not suffered another mass- forces and the credible threat of their serve the free flow of energy resources casualty assault on the scale of the 9/11 use. out of the Persian Gulf. attacks, the Islamic State (or ISIS) has Many in the U.S. foreign policy com-

More than simply revealing a wide- been all but wiped out in Iraq and Syria, munity hope that under a different presi-spread reluctance to use force, the and, in the age of COVID-19, Americans dential administration, the United nondebate over whether to respond mili- seem to have more to fear from the mun- States will reenter the 2015 Joint Com-tarily to the attacks pointed to a deeper dane tasks of daily life than from terror- prehensive Plan of Action, in which Iran problem: the lack of a shared framework ism. What is more, advocates for with- agreed to verifiably limit its nuclear for thinking through U.S. interests in the drawal argue, terrorism is largely a func- activities in exchange for sanctions region. The set of interests that long tion of the U.S. presence in the region, relief, or negotiate a new agreement. But shaped U.S. policy toward the Middle since extremists exploit it to validate the regional dynamics do not lend them-East has lost salience. Meanwhile, the their jihadi calls for resistance to a heret- selves to such an outcome. No matter always complex region has become even ical oppressor. At the very least, the argu- how well crafted a new deal might be, it more complicated. Confronted with ment goes, with fewer U.S. forces in the would raise hackles in Israel, Saudi Ara-these new realities, a form of analytic region, the threat to Americans at home bia, and the United Arab Emirates. exhaustion has set in among U.S. offi- would lessen. Those countries would do everything cials and analysts—a collective throwing F i n a l l y , t h e c a u s e o f n o n - they could to undermine any new agree-up of the hands that partly explains the proliferation took a devastating hit from ment, no matter how much military hard-widespread appeal of retrenchment and the ill-fated invasion of Iraq, which was ware the United States offered them in withdrawal. sold principally as a mission to disarm return for their assent. And even if they

STAY PUT

s U.S. President Donald Trump in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 2017.


did play along, all that hardware would violence when required. Setting aside its Israel’s patron. This is not because Wash-make it a lot easier for them to try to bombastic “America first” rhetoric, the ington ought to punish Israel for its con-undermine the deal by using those weap- Trump administration’s 2018 National duct in the Gaza Strip and the West ons against Iran or its proxies. In that Strategy for Counterterrorism offers a Bank, which has made a two-state solu-way, an effort to stabilize the region fairly good road map, dispensing with tion impossible. Rather, it is a reflection through negotiations could very well the false hope that Washington can fix of the success of U.S. policy, which has have the opposite effect. the politics of the region while laying out sought to ensure Israeli security and

Containment, however, would an approach to counterterrorism that sovereignty. Both have now been estab-hardly mean simply allowing the Irani- has a chance of reducing the problem to a lished beyond any doubt.ans to develop nuclear weapons; the manageable level. American leaders should want good strategy would not preclude dialogue, Meanwhile, even in the age of relations with a strong and secure Israel. sanctions, or the use of force to prevent fracking, Middle Eastern oil will remain But the United States no longer needs to that outcome. In fact, it would involve a important to the United States. But pro- provide Israel with aid. Toward that end, mix of all three. Containment wouldn’t tecting the sea-lanes through which a the two countries should mutually agree be pretty, and no one who pursues it significant percentage of the global oil to phase out U.S. military assistance over would win a Nobel Peace Prize. But it supply travels requires a far smaller mili- the next decade. Owing to demographic promises something that is at least and political shifts in the United States, achievable: a reduction of tensions in the an end to such aid is likely to come in the Persian Gulf. not-too-distant future anyway. An

Iran is hardly the only source of agreement to phase it out in a planned such tensions. Although diminished, and predictable way would give the jihadi groups such as al Qaeda and ISIS Israelis some say in how the process still pose a serious threat. Those who unfolds and avoid an alternative sce-advocate some form of withdrawal often nario in which U.S. aid becomes condi-argue that reducing the U.S. military tional—a form of behavioral modifica-

tary footprint than the one Washington presence in the Middle East might miti- tion. Even without military aid, the U.S.-has established in the last two decades. A gate that danger. Yet it is wishful think- Israeli partnership would remain strong. small group of U.S. Navy ships with a ing to believe that jihadi terrorism would The two countries would still mutually complement of fighter jets stationed on wither away after the last U.S. soldier benefit from continued cooperation in air bases in the region or on an aircraft departed; the ideologies that drive the defense, security, and technology carrier would suffice. Realigning U.S. extremism are firmly entrenched in the sectors. Israel’s adversaries would strug-resources in that way would have the region, and they call for violence against gle to put any daylight between Wash-added benefit of reducing the risk that heretics regardless of whether they ington and Jerusalem.future U.S. policymakers would be occupy any particular territory.tempted to pursue projects that have To combat this persistent threat, THE COSTS OF little, if any, relationship to freedom of what Washington needs is not a “war on

INACTIONnavigation, thus making overreach less terror” built on visions of regime change, This is what a realistic U.S. Middle East likely.democracy promotion, and “winning policy looks like: containing Iran, retool-Perhaps the greatest change to hearts and minds” but a realistic ing the fight against terrorism to reduce Washington’s approach to the region approach focused on intelligence gather-its counterproductive side effects, reor-should be in its relations with Israel. The ing, police work, multilateral coopera-ganizing military deployments to United States should no longer be tion, and the judicious application of


emphasize the protection of sea-lanes, and downscaling the U.S.-Israeli rela-tionship to reflect Israel’s relative strength. Such an approach would leave unfulfilled the grand ambitions that Americans have pursued: the spread of democracy, the overthrow of Iran’s the-ocracy, the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But it would also avoid the disasters that would ensue if the United States were to depart. To see what the region might look like in that scenario, one need only look at recent episodes in which U.S. inaction contrib-uted to catastrophic outcomes.

Take, for example, the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, which began in March 2015. The costs of this Mohammed bin Salman is as impetuous, consider what happened the last time misadventure have been high, especially strong-willed, and arrogant as is widely Washington decided to do that, in 2011: for Yemeni civilians: untold numbers believed, he might decide that only a one result was the rise of ISIS, which have been injured, and some 13,500 nuclear arsenal can provide Saudi Ara- eventually dragged the United States have died, according to some estimates, bia with the security it needs and the back into Iraq anyway. many owing to an outbreak of cholera room for maneuver it craves in its con- A final, and less familiar, area in made possible by the intense devastation flict with Iran. If the Saudis went down which a U.S. withdrawal from the Middle caused by the Saudi bombardment. The that path, the results would be disas- East would make matters worse is the war has also destabilized the Arabian trous. eastern Mediterranean, where tensions Peninsula, making it harder for Wash- Iraq is another place where a U.S. over the status of Cyprus, maritime ington to counter extremism and protect exit would do far more harm than boundaries, and access to natural gas the free flow of energy. None of these good—even though, for withdrawal advo- deposits pit a dizzying array of countries, outcomes was preordained, and some of cates, Iraq represents the original sin of including multiple NATO allies and vari-them might have been mitigated or Washington’s flawed Middle East policy ous U.S. strategic partners, against one avoided altogether had the United States of the last two decades and is thus one of another. Not only have these complex not signaled its desire to leave the Middle the first places in the region from which and related disputes created a dangerous East. the United States must withdraw. Today, situation at sea, but they threaten to

The Saudis undertook the interven- Iraq is in terminal collapse and saddled make worse the already grim situation in tion after U.S. actions signaling a pull- with layers of complex political, eco- nearby Libya, where a civil war contin-back bumped up against a crisis in the nomic, and social problems. The coun- ues to rage and has drawn in a number of region. First, they watched as the United try’s political class and institutions are countries, including Egypt and Turkey, States withdrew from Iraq, paving the thoroughly corrupt. Even so, it would be which nearly came to blows in recent way for Iran to become the dominant a mistake to leave now. The 2003 inva- months. The United States has been con-force in Iraqi politics; allowed the Assad sion was a strategic blunder—but so spicuously absent from the scene except regime in Syria to squash a broad-based would be leaving Iraqis to the predations for a number of well-timed naval deploy-uprising, with help from its patrons in of terrorists and the regime next door. ments over the summer, which seemed Tehran and Moscow; and negotiated a to cool tensions momentarily. But a lack nuclear deal with Iran. This was deeply of U.S. involvement in these brewing unsettling to the Saudis, fueling their conflicts would increase the chances that fears that they were being left at the they would spin out of control. mercy of the Iranian regime and its drive for regional hegemony. Then, in 2014, a WHAT REALLY group called Ansar Allah (commonly

MATTERSknown as the Houthis) overthrew the It would be a blessing if the United States Yemeni government in Sanaa. The Sau- U.S. counterterrorism missions in could simply end its “endless wars” and dis—faced with what they perceived to be Iraq offer a relatively inexpensive way to walk away from the Middle East. But Tehran’s support for the Houthis and help the Iraqis keep ISIS and other doing so would be no way to conduct American indifference to Iran’s growing extremists at bay and, in the process, to foreign policy. There would be benefits power—felt compelled to go to war. contribute to the development of mili-to leaving the region, but they would be The Saudis’ fears that they could no tary and security institutions that can far outweighed by the costs. longer rely on their American protectors bolster Iraq’s independence. Iraq will

Washington got bogged down in the grew stronger after the Trump adminis- probably never be free of Iranian influ-Middle East because it lost sight of what tration declined to respond with force to ence, but it need not be left so weak that really matters in the region. The first two a series of Iranian provocations in the Tehran can continue to use the country decades of this century were an era in summer of 2019, including the attack on to advance its malign regional interests. which almost everything and anything Saudi oil facilities. Should Riyadh come To withdrawal advocates, this will sound was justified in terms of U.S. interests. to feel that Washington has truly cut it like a slippery slope to an endless mis-The goal now should be to clarify what is loose, it might take measures to protect sion in Iraq. But past experience sug-important and match national resources itself that once seemed unthinkable, gests that declaring victory and going to protecting those things. Declaring including developing its own nuclear home can have serious and negative con-defeat and going home will solve noth-weapons. If Saudi Crown Prince sequences for Iraq and the region. Just ing.

s Protesters in Cairo, Egypt, September 2012.

Past experiencesuggests that declaringvictory and going homecan have serious andnegative consequences

Washington gotbogged down in theMiddle East because itlost sight of what reallymatters



North Sea killed more than 2,000 people ments that are slow to cool naturally, the a distance. The damage in Puerto Rico in the Netherlands and the United King- risk is greatest. As hot days bunch was made worse because the U.S. Fed-dom. In 2003, a searing heat wave together, such households will see long eral Emergency Management Agency gripped western Europe, contributing to stretches without relief, since the indoor had exhausted its financial and person-somewhere between 35,000 and 70,000 temperature lags a day or two behind the nel resources on the previous two deaths. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy outdoor temperature. storms, especially Harvey. Add to that struck the northeastern coast of the Another scientific finding suggests the island’s financial troubles, its lack of United States, causing nearly $80 billion that the problem does not stop there: in representation in Congress, and the in damage. These episodes unleashed many locations in the future, episodes of Trump administrat ion ’s host i l-cataclysmic consequences, but few com- high humidity will be more likely to ity—perhaps not surprising, given the munities had to face them more than accompany hot days than they are now. island’s overwhelmingly Hispanic popu-once over several generations. Such Heat plus humidity equals more human lation—and the result was gross mis-events occur worldwide multiple times misery than heat alone or humidity management that worsened the disaster. per year but rarely in the same place. The alone—and more than the sum of the Even extreme events scattered North Sea storm, for instance, appears to two. Above a certain threshold, the across the world can compound one have been a once-in-a-century event for human body can no longer dissipate its another. Consider crop failures. About its region; the 2003 heat wave, a once-in- own metabolic heat through perspira- 15 percent of the world’s grain is con-500-year event; and Sandy’s flooding of tion. More and more often, in an expand- sumed not in the country where it was New York City, a once-in-250-year ing area of the world, outdoor activity grown but after being exported. The big-event. involving any significant effort—farm gest exporters of grain—Argentina, Aus-

But soon, some once-in-a-lifetime labor, construction work, or even a soc- tralia, Russia, Ukraine, and the United catastrophes will become annual deba- cer game—will be life threatening. States—are spread out around the world. cles. As temperatures rise, the odds that The devastation caused by multiple That is a good thing from the perspective such events will occur at any specific extreme events is not hypothetical, as the of food security, because it minimizes the location in a given year are growing 2017 hurricane season showed. In chances of simultaneous crop failures. quickly, particularly in coastal areas. By August of that year, Hurricane Harvey But global warming is increasing those 2050, many such areas around the world struck the Gulf Coast of the United odds. Yields of corn, soybeans, and other will face flood levels every year that only States, deluging parts of the areas key crops fall sharply as temperatures recently occurred once per century. around Houston, Texas, with more than rise and the amount of water they receive

When extreme events strike the four feet of rainfall and causing over $90 falls. As a result, there is now a growing same location more frequently, the con- billion in damage. A couple of weeks possibility of simultaneous crop failures fluence can be more devastating than the later, Hurricane Irma flattened parts of in two far-apart breadbaskets — some-sum of its parts. Consider a string of the Leeward Islands, in the Caribbean, thing that could disrupt the global food extremely hot days in one particular while striking a glancing blow to Puerto supply and lead to malnutrition and, in place—the odds of which, computer cli- Rico. Just two weeks after that, Hurri- some places, widespread starvation.mate models confirm, are growing rap- cane Maria made a direct hit on Puerto idly. A few consecutive days of unusually Rico, destroying its infrastructure and hot weather is manageable, but a week or causing about 3,000 deaths. At some Beyond the prospect of extreme events two, far less so. As a heat wave goes on, point in their paths of destruction, each coinciding or connecting, another sort of

interaction is just as worrying: those among the various systems that drive the climate. Scientists have long worried about tipping points—thresholds beyond which small changes in the global temperature can lead to rapid, disruptive effects. For example, if large portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melt and disintegrate, a pro-cess already underway along their fringes, the global sea level will rise much more rapidly than it has for thousands of years. As Arctic permafrost across North America and Eurasia melts, it will release large amounts of methane and carbon dioxide, further increasing the rate of global warming. If a key ocean current in the North Atlantic slows down as a result of global warming, climate at

the electrical grid struggles to supply storm was classified as Category 4 or 5, the high latitudes will be disrupted. enough power for all the air conditioning the highest levels of intensity. Although scientists have looked at these being used. Blackouts are triggered. Like heat waves, consecutive hurri- possibilities with a wary eye for decades, With no air conditioning, the human canes of this magnitude can exacerbate they have been unable to nail down the body’s own system for mitigating heat misery. The link in this case was not nec- exact temperature at which these rapid breaks down, too. Some die of heat essarily geographic or temporal. Hurri- responses would occur—or to determine stroke and respiratory disease. For those cane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico if precise tipping points even exist. who lack air conditioning (which is a 26 days after and over 2,000 miles away But if such thresholds exist and majority of the world’s population), from Hurricane Harvey’s strike on were crossed at relatively low tempera-many of whom live in aging, urban apart- Texas. But these two events connected at tures, the result would be disastrous: the

THE TIPPING POINTS

As the World Burns ClimateChange’s Dangerous Next Phase

Natural Resources

By 2050, many areas around the world will face flood levels every year

I

A CONFLUENCE OF CRISES

n late August, more than 600 begins to drain away. Viewing weather chain reaction involving other such s e p a r a t e w i l d f i r e s r a v a g e d events as independent occurrences is mechanisms. California, killing seven people. like trying to understand a movie by look- These new risks to the planet should

Meanwhile, two tropical cyclones struck ing at a series of brief clips; they are challenge the conventional wisdom on the Gulf Coast only days apart: first important plot points, but not the whole fighting climate change. In the United Tropical Storm Marco and then story. In fact, viewing climate change as States and other wealthy countries, Hurricane Laura, the latter of which the accumulation of individual events efforts to adapt to global warming have killed 26 people in the United States and underestimates the threat, because such always played second fiddle to efforts to tied the record for the strongest storm to events do not take place in a vacuum. As reduce carbon emissions. This emphasis hit Louisiana. Extreme events such as recent research shows, features of the is understandable, since if greenhouse these signal a worrying trend. In the climate interact with one another — gas emissions are not restrained, suc-coming decades, as temperatures interactions that exacerbate the impact cessfully adapting to climate change will continue to climb, seemingly isolated on people and ecosystems. be impossible for most of humanity: climate disasters will begin to overlap, Two interactions are particularly countries will suffer major damage, and their impacts becoming more than worrisome. First, as extreme events lives will be lost. Adaptation has also additive. Scientists expect to see more become more intense and more fre- seemed less attractive because it intense tropical cyclones and more heat quent, they will increasingly occur close involves no global silver bullets. But waves. Each disaster could compound together in time and location, worsening policymakers no longer have the luxury the damage of the next, with less and less the overall impact. Alone, a single of downgrading adaptation, because time for people to recover in between. extreme event—such as a hurricane or a climate change’s devastating effects are

Many observers assess the threat of wildfire—can devastate wide areas. But no longer in the future; they are occur-climate change in terms of the frequency back-to-back climate catastrophes com- ring now.or severity of extreme events. They have pound the misery of each. The second viewed each crisis—be it a Texas hurri- type of interaction is longer term. It hap-cane or a California wildfire—as distinct pens when one of the earth’s mecha-from others. But consider how people n i s m s f o r r e g u l a t i n g t h e c l i-

Extreme events can wreak havoc on soci-feel on the fourth day of a heat wave as mate—systems involving air, the ocean, ety. In 1953, a powerful storm in the opposed to the first. Their resilience land, or ice—runs amok, setting off a

By Michael Oppenheimer@ClimateOpp

s Dogs stranded after Hurricane Florence in Leland, North Carolina, September 2018.


widespread dislocation of ecosystems enough to prepare for the next. Some often unpopular policies. Very little of and societies with little window of studies suggest that it takes multiple this job can be done quickly. Adaptation opportunity to adapt. Even worse, similar incidents to leave a deep enough should have begun in earnest decades there’s evidence to suggest that several of impression to convince them to learn ago.these phenomena would interact. If a from their experience and adapt accord- Emphasizing emission reductions threshold in one system were crossed, ingly. Only then will they think ahead but not adaptation to climate change is there might be a ripple effect, causing and act to protect lives and property or misguided, because no matter what hap-thresholds in others to be crossed, too. get out of harm’s way by relocating to pens to emissions over the next 30 years, For example, a rapid loss of Greenland safer terrain. the planet will get significantly hotter. ice would pour water into the surround- Climate change’s devastating effects Trapped heat that has been absorbed by ing sea, slowing ocean circulation. are no longer in the future; they are the oceans over decades is bound to Because this current normally channels occurring now. emerge, warming the earth. Years of warm water northward, its slowing Even highly developed countries are emissions have accumulated in the atmo-would create something akin to a series underprepared for climate risks, espe- sphere and will have a lagged effect on of rear-end collisions in a traffic jam, cially in certain geographic areas, eco- the climate. Although the world may be causing a warming of Antarctic waters nomic sectors, or demographic seg- capable of meeting the targets set in the on the other side of the world. That, in ments. Before Hurricane Katrina struck Paris agreement, it is more likely than turn, would have another knock-on in 2005, New Orleans had an emergency not that it will fail to do so. Ever since effect, speeding the breakup of parts of escape plan, but it didn’t consider poorer international climate change negotia-the Antarctic ice sheet. The global sea people who didn’t have cars, most of tions began in 1991, countries have level would surge even higher. whom were Black. As a result, many talked the talk more than they have

When these building blocks of the stayed in their houses and drowned or walked the walk. If the targets aren’t met, climate are examined individually, the wound up in New Orleans’s Superdome, climate change will produce more events chances of crossing multiple thresholds which had been set up as a shelter. Other that a greater number of governments more or less simultaneously appears countries may be able to handle one will either have to learn to adapt to at a small. Some of these phenomena are threat but completely overlook another. very high price or altogether fail to man-unlikely to occur in this century or even Japan, for example, has millennia of age.the next without a major trigger. But that experience dealing with earthquakes, Even achieving the Paris targets is precisely what the interaction of these floods, and typhoons, and its disaster- would not be a free pass to avoid adapta-various systems might create: one sys- risk-management system is the envy of tion. Attaining those goals would give tem may go haywire, triggering the dis- the world. Yet the country failed to pre- the world some welcome breathing ruption of others. At this juncture, there pare for a new type of disaster that arose room. But the resulting warming would is still a great deal of uncertainty about in 2011: an earthquake triggering a tsu- still create serious consequences, such as how high that probability is. But the nami, which flooded a nuclear reactor. a hundredfold uptick in the frequency of potential for such interactions adds As these examples suggest , floods along large swaths of the world’s another reason to be extremely cautious although governments can learn coasts. It is true that no amount of adap-about venturing beyond the targets set in through experience with individual tation will be enough if emissions remain t h e 2 0 1 5 P a r i s c l i m a t e a g r e e- disasters, they are almost never ready for unconstrained, because that would lead ment—keeping warming to well below new combinations of them. That does to warming that would go far beyond two degrees Celsius above preindustrial not offer much reason for optimism what humans have ever experienced. But levels and trying to limit the increase to when it comes to preparations for cli- it is also true that no amount of emission 1.5 degrees Celsius. Exceeding those mate change. Indeed, in a world where reduction will be enough to spare com-targets would mean entering a climatic climate risks rarely interact, govern- munities that do not also adapt.terra incognita. ments are already inadequately planning Governments must also remember

for potential disasters. As those risks that the ability of people and places to increasingly compound one another, adapt to climate change is highly governments will lag even further unequal, largely because of unfair behind the threat. arrangements determined too often by

The interaction of extreme events cre- racial, gender, ethnic, age, or other dif-ates risks of an entirely new type and ferences. Many of the interactions magnitude. Using computers to predict between extreme events will become when and where such events may occur apparent only suddenly, so accommo-is of little immediate help, since model- Nearly all accounts of the climate prob- dating them will require extra flexibility ing of those events is in its early stages. lem from scientists and other experts to respond rapidly—a capacity that much Nor can one extrapolate from past expe- end with a plea for rapid reductions in of the population in less developed coun-rience, since the climate is evolving well greenhouse gas emissions. But govern- tries and major segments of wealthy outside of what humans have lived ments should emphasize adaptation countries have long been deprived of.through. It’s not that a confluence of equally. That means developing for- The bottom line is that few if any risky climate events at a particular place ward-looking policies to protect people, countries are sufficiently prepared to and time is entirely new. But what is new infrastructure, ecosystems, and society. deal with what is in store. A yawning gap is that the likelihood of some conflu- It means restructuring or replacing per- has opened up between what they know ences is increasing rapidly and globally. verse incentives that encourage people about the risks of climate change and

Further complicating predictions is and industries to settle in exposed areas. what they are doing to reduce them. In the question of how people and govern- It means giving more resources to inter- the riskier new era of climate change, the ments will respond. People who are not national agencies to help the least devel- longer countries take to close that gap, directly involved in an extreme event oped countries. Most of all, it means the more painful and deadly the out-tend not to remember the lessons thinking many years ahead to gather comes.learned from such past events long extensive resources and political will for

UNPREPARED FOR UNKNOWNS

THE ADAPTATION IMPERATIVE



It’s Time to Trust the TalibanAfghan Argument

Afghanistan’s jihadi insurgents are ready to give America what it wants: defeat withouthumiliation

with the forces of the Islamic State (who decade ago, he and his colleagues could most certainly are anti-Western interna- not say what victory would look like in tional terrorists) for control of parts of Afghanistan, but they could all say what Afghanistan. The Taliban’s role as an defeat would look like. It would look like enemy of the Islamic State (as well as Saigon in 1975. In the case of Afghani-prudent preparation for the possible stan, this would most probably however collapse of the U.S.-backed order in take the form not of outright Taliban Kabul) has led Russia and China to victory but of the collapse of the Afghan launch talks with the Taliban. state, followed by Taliban victory over

Finally, while the Pakistani military large areas and deepened and perma-has backed the Afghan Taliban as a client nent civil war with other ethnic forces.movement against Indian influence in Apart from prestige, there is also a Afghanistan, it has absolutely no interest concrete U.S. interest in preventing such in encouraging a repeat of 9/11 and the an outcome. Such a full-scale civil war disasters that followed for Pakistan. And would lead to a greatly increased flow of if Pakistanis did have any such intention, Afghan refugees to Europe. Given what their Chinese backers (with their own happened because of the Syrian refugee worries about Islamist extremism in crisis, this could deal a death blow to Xinjiang) would deter them very liberal democracy in Europe, and the strongly. resulting European nationalist backlash

The second real U.S. interest in the would crush the entire image of U.S.-led process is what is called in Washington democracy in the world. To prevent it, “credibility” but which is better known however, would require agreement with by its older and more honest name, and major concessions to Turkey and “prestige”—in this case, the avoidance of I r a n , u n d e r m i n i n g A m e r i c a ’ s obvious and humiliating defeat, which geopolitical position in the Middle East.would undermine respect for U.S. The key question therefore is strength and embolden U.S. enemies whether a deal can be struck with the elsewhere. As a U.S. general told me a Taliban concerning control over the

In the peace process now underway with the Afghan Taliban, one-and-a-half significant U.S. interests are

at stake. The “half” is the only real hang-up to signing a deal and bringing home American troops right now.

For Afghans, of course, the stakes in the present war are different and infi-nitely higher than for Americans, for whom the only vital interest is also the easiest to achieve: a Taliban agreement not to host international terrorists them-selves and to do their utmost to prevent Afghanistan from once again being used as a base for terrorism against the West in general and the United States in par-ticular.

One can be confident that the Taliban would not only agree to this but also follow through on the agreement. It’s not just because Taliban supporters and interlocutors, in public statements and private conversations (including my own), have almost universally, if grimly, acknowledged that hosting al Qaeda in the run-up to 9/11 was a dreadful mis-take that cost them their rule over Afghanistan. It’s also because the Taliban are now engaged in a bitter fight

Afghan state, and if it can be reached, Iran, China, Russia, and India—and they United States should find it easy to give. whether it would stick. The key question should therefore be centrally included in For far from being strategic assets, these here is not culture or ideology—but bases are in the long run somewhere power. Afghanistan already has an between a strategic liability and a collec-Islamic constitution, which can be tion of hostage camps. Given their geo-tweaked to look even more Islamic. But graphical position and the virtually cer-in terms of power at the center, the tain long-term instability of Afghani-Taliban will inevitably demand either a stan, it would be strategically foolish to strong central government in which they leave U.S. forces there permanently. will have a very large share or a neutral Apart from anything else, they are not a government (perhaps under a new par- true threat to Iran but on the contrary an liamentary constitution) with very little excellent potential target for Iranian-real power. backed attacks.

And whatever happens, they will Finally, two other issues should at demand de facto (though not necessarily least be mentioned. The Taliban do not explicit and formal) control over their threaten women’s modern rights in most core areas of support in Greater of Afghanistan because such rights have Kandahar, Greater Paktia, and Kunduz, never existed in most of Afghanistan. including de facto military control by Some of the worst atrocities against Taliban forces incorporated into the women in recent years have taken place Afghan National Army and police. To in areas controlled by forces allied with the peace process. But of course, present judge by their record in the 1990s, most the United States and the Afghan gov-U.S. relations with Russia and China ordinary opponents of the Taliban in ernment. Just as prior to 1992 (when the hardly allow this, and the United States these areas would be allowed by the city was destroyed by the U.S.-backed does not have direct relations with Iran Taliban to go home in peace. Hard-line mujahideen), since 2001, an island of at all. Chinese help is also needed to anti-Taliban leaders would have to leave relative liberalism and progress has been influence Pakistan not to seek to use or die. created in central Kabul. It may perhaps Afghanistan as a base for terrorism

be possible to get the Taliban in the future to respect this to some extent in return for a free hand in their own areas—but only if Kabul and its Western-ized elites have to remain secure as the conduit for large sums of outside finan-cial aid. If the West wants Kabul to play this role in the long run, it will have to go on paying for it in the long run.

One last issue does not affect the United States much but is a grave scourge for Europe, Russia, and Iran: the Afghan heroin trade. I have heard from sources I trust that the Taliban leader-ship would be very happy to suppress this trade, as they did in 1999-2001, if they could get the same deal that they offered in those years: international rec-

The questions therefore are whether directed against India. ognition and copious international aid such a power-sharing agreement could There is one thing that the United channeled through them. Morally, the be reached between the existing Afghan States can give China, Russia, and Iran in Taliban have always been uneasy about state and the Taliban, and if it were return for their help and which it must the trade (especially as the number of reached, whether it would stick at least give up anyway as part of any agreement Afghan addicts has increased)—and it long enough for the United States to with- with the Taliban. Any idea of long-term also tends by its nature to undermine draw without humiliation. If such a deal U.S. bases in Afghanistan—which China, central command and to promote inde-collapsed after a few years—well, that Russia, and Iran fear could be used to pendent warlordism—whereas aid would be dreadful for Afghanistan, but threaten them—will have to be aban- directed through the Taliban leadership the U.S. public would have forgotten all would help consolidate their power.about Afghanistan by then, and no doubt If the United States went down this the U.S. establishment would find some- path, then following a peace deal it might one else to blame for U.S. failure. find itself in the position of funding the

At present, it looks quite impossible Taliban to fight against the heroin-for the Kabul government to agree to trading warlords whom Washington has such terms. Washington can, of course, been backing for the past 17 years to fight coerce it by the threat of unilateral with- against the Taliban. And thus the drawal but has then thrown away most of Afghanistan war would end, perhaps its ability to maintain any pressure on appropriately, in the darkest of black the Taliban. This is where the region comedies.comes in. To restrain Taliban behavior after U.S. withdrawal will not in fact be

doned. This is something the Taliban are the task of the United States but of absolutely bound to demand, and the Afghanistan’s neighbors—Pakistan,

l Anatol Lieven is a professor at Georgetown University in Qatar and a senior research fellow at New America in Washington. He is the author, among other books, of America Right or Wrong: An Anatomy of American Nationalism.

By Anatol Lieven Doha, Qatar

s A Taliban representative attends international talks on Afghanistan in Moscow on Nov. 9, 2018.

Any idea of long-termU.S. bases inAfghanistan—whichChina, Russia, and Iranfear could be used tothreaten them—willhave to be abandoned.This is something theTaliban are absolutelybound to demand, andthe United States shouldfind it easy to give

Some of the worstatrocities againstwomen in recent yearshave taken place inareas controlled byforces allied with theUnited States and theAfghan government


minority, even placing them in concen- influence coupled with enhancing part- China makes smart investments in tration camps in what is internationally nerships in security, trade, and energy. Afghanistan, it will be beneficial to both condemned as cultural genocide. The China’s flagship BRI project, the China- parties. He states, however, that Kabul same goal led China to offer to build key Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), must “be aware of the financial terms; highway networks for the Taliban to could be expanded to Afghanistan to China tends to seek equity after provid-prompt the militant group to reduce further connect the Central Asian repub- ing loans with high interest rates that the violence and establish peace in the coun- lics under a Chinese umbrella. The pri- host nation sometimes defaults upon.”try. mary reason Chinese investment in Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has

Although China has continued to Afghanistan has been sluggish is due to rejected loans from China before as he deny that Beijing is interested in build- intense instability and American pres- understands the crippling debt and eco-ing overseas military bases, it was ence, but those key aspects may sud- nomic dependence associated with it, a reported early last year that China built a denly change in the coming future. sentiment also pushed by Washington second foreign military base in Afghanistan’s natural resources are onto Kabul. However, as the Americans Tajikistan, near the strategic Wakhan estimated to be worth around $1 trillion, leave, a future Afghan government may Corridor – the strip connecting Afghani- and Chinese companies have been tak- prove to be more inviting to Chinese com-stan to China. The base is supposedly in ing notice. For instance, in 2008, the panies and assistance for another place for counterterrorism efforts Chinese Metallurgical Group Corpora- nationwide reconstruction project. In against Uyghur militants and combat- tion (MCC) and the Jiangxi Copper Com- Afghanistan, peace is a prerequisite to ting other insurgents crossing the border pany Limited (JLC) consortium won a development and China’s willingness to into western China. Similarly, in 2018, 30-year lease to extract the second larg- invest and expand displays the impor-the Afghan Embassy in Beijing con- est copper deposit in the world (valued at tance of Afghanistan as a military and firmed that China is helping Afghanistan least $50 billion) for $3.4 billion. In economic corridor.set up a mountain brigade in the north, 2011, the China National Petroleum Cor-but said that there will no Chinese troops poration (CNPC) won a $400 million bid on Afghan soil. to drill three oil fields for 25 years, con-

However, there have been reports taining roughly 87 million barrels of oil. from the Ministry of Defense in Afghani- However, the development of the mine stan that a Chinese expert delegation and oil fields have not progressed at all, The Afghan peace negotiations are rid-visited Kabul and discussed a location which has left the Afghan government dled with uncertainties: when a ceasefire for the base in 2018. Further plans have frustrated. will occur, how long the peace talks will not been revealed. After the U.S. with- China preemptively won these con- take, and what system of governance will drawal, Beijing’s intentions will become tracts and are biding their time until be formed. The Afghan peace team and clearer and Kabul may be incentivized to Afghanistan becomes more stable to the Taliban hold vastly different beliefs accept military assistance — especially conduct their economic operations. That about women’s rights and autonomy, the since China has already asked for similar also helps explain the Chinese push to role Islam should play in state affairs and counterterrorism guarantees from the quell violence by directly talking to the how democracy should be implemented. Taliban — whether the civil war ends or Taliban and offering them industrial This gap in values will most certainly continues. projects. Moreover, Beijing may very cause delays and leave ordinary Afghans

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghani- well be building a strategic relationship frustrated.stan is not an anomaly but part of a with Kabul and the Taliban to ensure Once U.S. troops leave next year, the broader, bipartisan push from American similar contracts can be won in the democracy Afghanistan manifested in policymakers to withdraw forces from future to generate momentum for their the past two decades may also begin to overseas conflicts, even in the Middle BRI expansion. gradually collapse. Corruption among East. Only a few hundred Americans are Since the launch and expansion of high-level officials and limited govern-left in Syria to protect oil fields and CPEC, Beijing has gained influence and ment control in most Afghan provinces Trump and Prime Minister Mustafa al- leverage over Islamabad. China recently have proved that democracy in Afghani-Kadhimi of Iraq recently stated that convinced Pakistan to open five key bor- stan has always been an illusion, meant troop levels in Iraq will decrease to der crossings with Afghanistan to facili- to satisfy expectations of the United 3,000. This vacuum is widespread, and tate bilateral trade and the transit trade States in order to continuously receive the recent Beijing-Tehran strategic of Afghan exports to India – decreasing aid. Once the illusion fades, so will the agreement is a testament to that. The Afghanistan’s dependence on the act of protecting that façade. There will security and trade partnership outlines Chabahar port in Iran. Pakistan’s will- be a clash between Afghans who want to enhanced joint training and exercises, ingness to allow exports to rival India as expand and progress democracy and joint research and weapons develop- tensions escalate in the Kashmir region those who simply used it for political ment and intelligence sharing. As China reveals China’s ability to persuade capital and financial incentives.further postures itself in South Asia, regional partners to do its bidding to set China’s growing influence in Central Asia, and the Middle East, the the foundation to propel BRI. Further- Afghanistan may even shift Afghan gov-influence of the West will rapidly dwin- more, Afghanistan’s ambassador to ernance styles to resemble Beijing’s — dle, with Afghanistan no exception. China confirmed that the country is look- one that is more hierarchical and with

ing forward to having the same kind of autocratic tendencies, a system that the relationship China has with Pakistan. Taliban does not oppose. The next few Enhanced Chinese development will years will be crucial in efforts for rebuild-most likely also be in the form of loans to ing Afghanistan and the people who call the various institutions of Afghanistan. it home will finally know the truth: Will

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s modern- Michael O’Hanlon — a senior fellow real change be ushered in or is this sim-day silk road project – the Belt and Road and the director of research in foreign ply another familiar phase in the recent Initiative (BRI) – serves as the country’s policy at the Brookings Institution – tragic history of the country?foundation to project massive economic argues that once the U.S. withdraws, if

AFGHANISTAN’S GOVERNANCE IN THE FUTURE

CHINA’S RISING ECONOMIC PRESENCE IN AFGHANISTAN

China’s Stake in the AfghanPeace Process

China-Taliban Relations

Afghanistan is already of strategic importance to Beijing. As U.S. troops leave, China’sinfluence will grow

CHINA’S MILITARY PUSH IN THE REGIONNegotiations between the Afghan Afghan security forces and civilians.

g o v e r n m e n t d e l e g a t i o n , Nevertheless, the Trump adminis-c o m p r i s i n g g o v e r n m e n t tration is staying course with its initial

Since U.S. Special Envoy Zalmay officials and civil society leaders, and the plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Khalilzad embarked on his shuttle diplo-Taliban started last week in Doha, Qatar. Afghanistan by mid-2021. The move macy to encourage peace talks in 2018, Representatives from the international toward troop withdrawal will likely not China and Pakistan have been inviting community visited and promoted a change even if President Donald Trump the Taliban to discuss regional security productive peace process — showcasing loses his re-election bid this November. and stability within Afghanistan. Similar the complexity of the Afghan conflict. His opponent, former Vice President Joe to the U.S., China worries about their The signing of the U.S.-Taliban Biden, also believes that American forces internal security being threatened by agreement this past February paved the need to be dramatically reduced to under Afghan-based terrorist groups. In way for this direct dialogue, prompting 2,000 and that the expensive war in exchange for China’s support for the Afghanistan’s neighbors to become more Afghanistan needs to end.Taliban to be included in the Afghan involved to prepare for an eventual U.S. An inevitable consequence of this government, there is an understanding withdrawal. U.S. retreat is that other great powers that the Taliban must prevent Uyghur Even in a time of intense geo- will fill the military and economic vac-secessionist groups from China’s political competition between the uum left in Afghanistan. China’s interest Xinjiang region from crossing the border United States and China, stability in in Central Asia is far reaching and it will and settling in bases in Afghanistan.Afghanistan is one of the few shared look to use Afghanistan as a corridor for

This assurance is especially crucial interests remaining. It is a task that its “March West.” The only uncertainty is to the Chinese Community Party’s requires international support. The how this will affect a future Afghan gov-topline agenda to combat any separat-peace talks were delayed for over six ernment and its development as a ism or unrest in Xinjiang. That priority months due to argument over prisoner regional economic force.has prompted the Chinese government releases; meanwhile, the Taliban to crack down on the Uyghur Muslim increased the severity of their attacks on

By Sohrab Azad@azadsohrab

s China’s President Xi Jinping and Afghan Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah shake hands during their meeting at the Great Hall of the People inBeijing, China, Tuesday, May 17, 2016.

There is an unfortunate tendency momentous as the slow collapse of the Dhabi to formalize peace with Jerusa-in U.S. strategic circles to Arab-Israeli conflict and the strategic lem. Now, the space between agree-compartmentalize by geography: reorientation within the Middle East is, ments is being measured in days and

China watchers look at China, but for too its impact on South Asia will also be weeks rather than years and decades.long ignored its inroads in Africa and the momentous. While India increasingly Whereas cash greased peacemaking Americas. Russia specialists watch the embraces the new order, however, Paki- with both Egypt and Jordan, the recent Kremlin but ignore Moscow’s inroads far stan’s reactionary rejection of Saudi Ara- peace deals are more ideological. Arab beyond Russia’s borders. The Middle bia’s peace moves may raise new chal- capitals are recognizing Israel because East, meanwhile, may have been the lenges for the United States and regional they want to, not simply because they focus of U.S. strategy for the past security. need money. Iran, of course, is a major quarter-century, but both the State There can be no mistaking the reason for the change. From its founda-Department and Pentagon divide it importance of the strategic realignment tion, the Islamic Republic of Iran has between European, Near Eastern, and in the Middle East. The decision first by sought Israel’s genocidal eradication as African bureaus. Simply put, not the United Arab Emirates and next Bah- core policy. While Iran’s post-everything conforms neatly to a U.S. rain to normalize relations with Israel revolutionary policy toward the Gulf bureaucracy notoriously unwilling or formalize a détente that has been years Arab states has been more nuanced, the unable to adjust to the world around it. in the making. All indications are that Iranian government’s willingness to

So it is with recent Middle East Saudi Arabia could be next. Put another export revolution throughout the Middle peace moves. What is happening in way, Israel waited thirty years for the East and incite unrest in Bahrain, Arab-Israeli peace is historic, and no first Arab-Israeli peace agreement; it Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia had led Gulf amount of partisanship in Washington took another fifteen years for the next, states to view the Iranian regime as a can credibly detract from it. But as and another quarter-century for Abu fundamental challenge. Saudi Arabia

has further suffered repeated and direct now peculates openly. On August 5, ner to make Kashmir a religious impera-attacks by Iranian proxies in Yemen. 2020, Pakistani foreign minister Shah tive rather than a diplomatic issue. Turk-Sudan, which once pledged firm rejec- Mahmood Qureshi launched a tirade ish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, tion of negotiations with let alone recog- against Riyadh for Saudi Arabia’s pro- meanwhile, hopes to leverage Turkish-nition of Israel now seeks to join the mod- crastination on convening an Organisa- Pakistani solidarity on Kashmir into erate camp. Iraq, once home to the most tion of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) for- Pakistani acceptance of his broader anti-radical Palestinian factions, may not eign minister meeting on Kashmir and Saudi obsession.have peace with Israel on its agenda, but the Israel-United Arab Emirates peace Pakistan may see in Erdoğan and no longer seeks to obstruct it either. deal. Riyadh has its own grievances: perhaps Iran a substitution for recent

Other countries are coalescing into Saudi officials were also reportedly apo- diplomatic losses: Malaysia is quiet now a more rejectionist camp against the new plectic at Pakistani prime minister that Mahathir Mohamad is out of power. order. Turkey, once a part of a pro- Imran Khan’s appeal to ease sanctions The new government both has different Western democratic and counter-terror on Iran. They are also upset that Paki- perceptions about its role in the world bloc, now is a state-sponsor of terrorism stan treats Iran’s demands as equally and is mindful of more immediate

Malaysian interests: India is the largest buyer of Malaysian palm oil. Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden has quieted his criticism of the extension of Indian law to Kashmir as he courts Indian-American votes, a constituency ener-gized by his choice of Kamala Harris, whose mother is Indian. Pakistan was livid, meanwhile, with Saudi Arabia efforts to win a $15 billion deal to build an oil refinery in India. As Haqqani notes, Pakistan-Saudi trade is “a meagre $3.6 billion, Saudi trade with India has risen to $27 billion and is expanding further.”

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and now a scholar at the Hudson Institute noted that Pakistan was putting ideology above more pragmatic concerns: “The

in all but name. Qatar increasingly posi- legitimate to Saudi Arabia’s in diplo- Saudis do not look kindly upon ultima-tions itself as the banker to the matic mediation. tums and will be especially offended rejectionist bloc. The Palestinian In August 2020, Pakistan dis- when it comes from a country that has Authority, meanwhile, is doubling down patched Qamar Javed Bajwa, the chief of frequently sought economic bailouts on its rejectionism, an attitude which the the Army Staff, and Faiz Hameed, the from the Kingdom.” At issue is not only European Union subsidizes. director-general of the Inter-Services Saudi subsidies but also Saudi Arabia

Washington already struggles for Intelligence, to Riyadh to conduct dam- and Pakistan’s decades-long military ties how to address the new realities as one- as well as the remittances which Paki-time allies and hosts to U.S. forces make stani workers send home from their common cause with anti-American ter- Saudi jobs.rorist groups. The Middle East realign- The U.S. State Department and Pen-ment, however, may also reverberate tagon must recognize the import of Paki-through South Asia, albeit not in entirely stan’s shifting alliances. Pakistan’s spon-positive ways. Certainly, Israel and India sorship of terror against India and have already broken the ice, notwith- Afghanistan is already problematic, and standing India’s substantial economic the U.S.-Taliban deal only empowers ties to Iran. Saudi Arabia’s pivot toward radical Islamists further and formalizes the peace bloc, however, is causing Paki- their de facto safe-haven. To then tie stan to move the other direction and to Pakistan more deeply into the Turkey seek solace in the newly-coalescing radi- and Qatar anti-peace Middle East bloc cal bloc. means those same groups might soon

This may not entirely surprise. Paki- become more involved in undercutting age control. It did not work. That Saudi stan is among the world’s most anti- peace and security in the Middle East. Crown Prince and Defense Minister Semitic countries, never mind that it has Countries that prioritize ideology above Muhammad bin Salman did not receive no Jewish community and few Paki- both peace and their economic develop-them shows the depth of Saudi anger.stanis have ever met a Jew. That intoler- ment tend to spiral downward into ever This may soon change. Within Paki-ance is a legacy of Saudi-funded religious more radical postures as they seek to stan’s leadership, there is now a debate seminaries, charities, and political assis- distract from their own failings. It seems about whether to continue Pakistan’s tilt tance. Perhaps the student has now strange to consider, but Saudi Arabia is toward Saudi Arabia or instead, pursue become the teacher: As Riyadh grows quickly becoming a moderating force in anything for Kashmir strategy and privi-closer to Jerusalem, the Pakistani politi- the region. For Pakistan to recoil from lege Iran, Turkey, and Qatar.cal leadership recoils, even at the that moderation bodes ill for its future. Alas, the rejectionist camp within expense of its long partnership with

Pakistan appears to be winning the argu-Saudi Arabia.

ment. They see in Turkey a willing part-What was once below the surface l Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.


The Middle East StrategicRealignment ReverberatesThrough South Asia

Security Alliances

As momentous as the slow collapse of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the strategicreorientation within the Middle East is, its impact on South Asia will also be momentous

By Michael Rubin@mrubin1971

s Pakistan’s army chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa is welcomed by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy DefenceMinister Prince Khalid bin Salman, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Turkish presidentRecep Tayyip Erdoğan,meanwhile, hopes toleverage Turkish-Pakistani solidarity onKashmir into Pakistaniacceptance of hisbroader anti-Saudiobsession


Powering the Powerless in PakistanPakistan Energy Shortage

By Muhammad Salar Khan@salarppolicy

In a developing country like to business than corruption (11.7 ture marked by poor organization, plan-Pakistan, a reliable, uninterrupted, percent) and crime/terrorism (5.5 ning, and project implementation and affordable energy supply is a percent). In light of these factors, there is among Pakistan’s power operating com-

fundamental precondition for reducing an urgent need to innovate in the energy panies only compounds the problem.poverty, encouraging investment, and sector of the country. Power shortages are also rooted in boosting economic growth. Among other Fortunately, Pakistan has a high Pakistan’s irrational and increasingly challenges, the newly elected Pakistan renewable energy potential, which has unaffordable energy mix: 64 percent Tehreek-e-Insaf government under the been elaborated in many studies on Paki- thermal, 30 hydropower, and 6 percent leadership of Imran Khan inherits a very stan. A recent report published by nuclear. A high reliance on thermal stagnant energy sector. Despite broad USAID attests to Pakistan’s energy power plants (which in turn are run by access to electricity (99 percent of the potential, stating that it can potentially natural gas, oil, or coal) and hydropower population had access to electricity in produce 100,000 MW from solar energy seldom assure a continuous flow of 2016, compared to 59 percent of the alone. Despite the potential, Pakistan power. Heavy dependence on oil-based population in 1990), the country remains “powerless” when it comes to energy makes power high-priced. The experiences massive blackouts (load adequately powering lights for its prevailing energy crisis is costly to the shedding of 6-8 hours a day for homes, machinery for its factories, and economy in the form of huge subsidies households and 1-2 hours a day for the stoves for its kitchens. Data from many and high circular debts. Politicians and industry). Because of poor energy sources, including the Ministry of Water policymakers in Pakistan have made management, Pakistan’s energy & Power and Pakistan Economic Sur- little real attempt to diversify the resources have been used inefficiently veys, over the past five years show that nation’s energy supplies and to shift for decades. As a result, the nation faces a Pakistan has been facing an average dependence form expensive and serious energy crisis that has often shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 MW. imported oil toward potentially cheaper stymied manufacturing and the service This acute energy crisis is a result of and cleaner resources available in the sector and disrupted power supplies in flawed energy policies pursued for country (Pakistan’s dependence on oil communities and households across the decades, the high cost of generation, and imports is 24 percent, compared to nation. According to a survey by the aging and inadequate transmission, India’s 18 percent and Bangladesh’s 21 World Bank, 66.7 percent of the among other causes. In addition to percent). Pakistan’s stubborn reliance businesses in Pakistan cite electricity transmission losses and distribution on fossil fuels continued even after the shortages as a more significant obstacle thefts, an entrenched bureaucratic cul- oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.

The misguided energy mix also exac- rate energy security, address environ-erbates the nation’s already serious envi- mental degradation, stimulate economic ronmental problems, which manifests growth, and, last but not least, mitigate itself in poor air quality and unsafe public worries.drinking water. Pakistan ranked a dis- However, the energy productivity mal 148th out of 175 countries, according policy and its subsequent implementa-to Yale and Columbia University’s Envi- tion cannot be viewed in a vacuum. Cau-ronmental Performance Index. tious deliberations by concerned institu-

One solution to Pakistan’s energy tions must take place to advance the tac-crisis (and interrelated environmental tical and strategic goals that are sought. deterioration) is to provide incentives In this regard, the government of Paki-for the development of distributed stan must play a prominent role not only energy resources, i.e., encourage a shift to ensure political stability and institu-toward renewable energy resources such tional revamp but also to guarantee as solar, wind, and biogas. Fortunately, regional peace and security.Pakistan is endowed with renewable Aside from the distinct challenges of energy resources. It not only has poten- financing “sunk” and “fixed” costs amid tially bountiful supplies of solar energy the historic debts and chronic losses, but also could tap possible sources of another significant constraint is the lack wind power, especially along the coastal of appropriate technology in the imple-areas of the Arabian Sea. The prospects mentation of energy productivity policy. for renewable energy in Pakistan are Pakistan needs to stay abreast of high heartening. Energy experts estimate that technology to harness its renewable Pakistan has a total renewable energy energy resources and materialize its potential of about 167.7 GW, more than energy efficiency goals. There are studies enough to meet the nation’s total that talk about technological impover-demand for electricity. ishment of Pakistan. Technological pen-

Better late than never, Pakistan has ury is one prime reason why Pakistan has started to acknowledge its renewable not been able to capitalize on its high services needed to produce these gains. energy potential as evidenced by the abundance of renewable energy poten-More business activities, infrastructure, construction of Quaid-e-Azam Solar tial. The lack of technological knowhow housing, education, and health services Park, with a nameplate capacity of 1,000 also helps to explain why non-hydro require more energy consumption. Para-MW. There is a need for more additional renewables currently account for less doxically, the very idea of energy effi-steps beyond the Solar Park. In fact, all than 4 percent (roughly 900 MW) of ciency remains unappreciated, in part, these steps should be part of a total installed electricity capacity against by a perception that it is a tool designed multipronged “energy productivity” the medium-term plan of having a mini-to reduce rather than expand consump-policy. By encouraging energy conserva- mum capacity of 9,700 MW by 2030. tion and production. Since the focus in tion (efficiency), on the one hand, and Given this, the role of technology trans-Pakistan remains on growth, which the facilitating a move toward clean fer in developing renewables and adopt-nation views as central to its future good, renewables, on the other, the productiv- ing energy conservation is worth explor-energy efficiency is dismissed as short-ity policy will not only enhance energy ing.hand for cutting down on growth.security but also improve the environ- To sum it up, I promote an alterna-In fact, presenting energy efficiency ment. tive approach of energy productivity as “doing more with less,” as is the case in

policy that not only redefines energy developed countries, tends to get lost in efficiency, but also includes it along with translation in countries such as Paki-an emphasis on renewable sources to stan. Thus, a change in the energy effi-address energy crises in Pakistan. Con-ciency paradigm is needed to better pro-cerned ministries would have to be cog-mote energy efficiency in a way that links nizant of the conditions in the energy Energy efficiency (doing more tasks with such efforts to improved living standards productivity policy that would amelio-less energy, as defined by Berkeley phys- and increased prosperity. A more inclu-rate power blackouts. For successful icist Richard Muller) is “cheaper than sive alternative narrative such as energy implementation of the policy, the gov-cheap.” It doesn’t cost much. A productivity should be advocated — that ernment would have to ensure that regu-McKinsey & Company report finds that is, producing more goods and services latory agencies coordinate their efforts savings made from energy conservation with the same energy (equivalently, “do-with power companies to improve and efficiency would be enough to pay ing more with the same”). As opposed to energy distribution, generation, and for projects such as expanding wind the traditional energy efficiency para-transmission. Undoubtedly, the govern-from energy production and installing digm focusing solely on fewer inputs ment would show its firm resolve in pro-solar panels. (“more with less”), energy productivity moting energy productivity reforms and In general, discussions about focuses on generating more outputs with eliminating constraints to effective energy efficiency often fixate on its abil- the same inputs.energy productivity policy implementa-ity to lower energy consumption, reduce Beyond the reframing of energy tion. Only then the nation will witness an expenditures, and curtail greenhouse efficiency as a rhetorical concept, there is “energized” homeland, healthy environ-gas emissions. It is worth exploring if a need for developing a sound and ment, improved economy, and, ulti-this mantra would work in developing thoughtful energy productivity policy mately a better quality of life for all citi-Pakistan. framework. Such a policy framework zens.Like any emerging economy, Paki- would inculcate renewable energy as a

stan focuses on growth and poverty alle- significant aspect of energy productivity viation, and the additional goods and policy. In the process, it would amelio-

ENERGY EFFICIENCY VS. ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY

l Muhammad Salar Khan is a Ph.D. Public Policy candidate and graduate research assistant at ScharScool of Policy & Government, George Mason University.

A roadmap to finally solving Pakistan’s energy crisis through “energy productivity”

Technological penuryis one prime reason whyPakistan has not beenable to capitalize on itshigh abundance ofrenewable energypotential. The lack oftechnological knowhowalso helps to explainwhy non-hydrorenewables currentlyaccount for less than4 percent (roughly900 MW) of totalinstalled electricitycapacity against themedium-term plan ofhaving a minimumcapacity of 9,700 MWby 2030



ute to the world’s path back from the cessfully built four generations of China munity. The greatest disruption experi-pandemic.” specialists ranging from expatriates and enced by these sectors has been travel

entrepreneurs to students and scientists. restrictions and quarantine protocols Some, like Rudd and Adamson, have caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.even reached the upper echelons of polit- Yet the relationship extends further ical leadership. than just these commodities. China is

In 1972, Australia became the second Despite Canberra’s diplomatic Australia’s largest market for a number Western nation after Sweden to estab- gaffes and even a controversial Senate of industries, such as wool (90 percent lish diplomatic relations with the Peo- hearing into issues facing the Chinese destined for China), barley (48 percent), ple’s Republic of China. To date, Austra- Australian community, relations with and cotton (68 percent). Ninety percent lia remains the only Western country to China have been consistently main- of Australia’s top ten importing indus-

tained through the broader scope of the tries are within the manufacturing sec-have elected a Mandarin-speaking head relationship. A range of well-established t o r , p r o d u c i n g i t e m s s u c h a s of government, former diplomat Kevin channels and key influencers (often state pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, Rudd. In 2020, the head of the Depart-premiers) have ensured ongoing bilat- and surgical equipment destined for ment of Foreign Affairs and Trade eral communication and engagement. China. The two-way investment rela-(DFAT), former ambassador to China

Bede Payne, the executive director tionship exceeds a combined total of Frances Adamson, is also a Mandarin of AustCham Shanghai, sees the rela- A$138 billion and Australia is one of the tionship as more complex and resilient world’s strongest daigou (overseas per-than how it is often depicted in main- sonal shopper) markets.stream media. “AustCham has operated The recent expansion of these mar-in the China market for more than 25 kets has diversified Australia’s economic years and many of our members have relationship with China, increasing the been here longer than that,” he com- range of industries engaged with the mented. “Our people-to-people relation- country. Service imports such as aged ships are strong and won’t disappear care and consumer items that cater to the overnight.” middle class have increased the eco-

nomic dependence of SMEs and family-owned businesses on the health of the bilateral relationship – so much so that in August, Australia recorded its largest

Australia ranks in China’s top 10 sources annual bilateral trade surplus of A$77.4 of principal imports. While iron ore, billion.natural gas, coal, and gold make up the This economic integration is so com-bulk of these (A$98 billion in 2018-19), plex that, regardless of the country’s own service industries such as education and political cycles, Australia’s growth and tourism (valued at A$16 billion in 2018- resilience relies upon its understanding

speaker. 19) have become an important part of the of Beijing’s planned economy. For more In fact, the relationship that Fitzger- trade relationship. Given that success in than 50 years, the relationship has con-

ald aspired to almost a decade ago has these industries requires a more sophis- sisted of multiple trade, investment, kept trade and communication channels ticated, bilingual understanding of the collaborative research, and commercial-open during this period of tension. Over market, this area of growth has been led ization initiatives that have ensured Aus-the past five decades, Australia has suc- by the Chinese Australian business com-

AUSTRALIA’S CHINA LEGACY

CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

In 2012, on the 40th anniversary of of government-to-government engage- byists. China’s response to the decline in diplomatic relations with China, ment. bilateral relations has been tactical, Australia’s first ambassador to The Morrison government’s central delivered progressively across specific

Beijing reflected on the growth potential focus on the economic aspects of its rela- import categories and supported by offi-in the relationship. Dr. Stephen tionship with China stands in sharp con- cial comments in state media outlets.Fitzgerald stated that Australia needed trast to the nuanced relations it has The premier commodities of the to think about its relationship with China developed with other regional partners trade relationship remain untouched – beyond economics, to develop a like Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia. notably the A$80 billion worth of iron m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l p e r s p e c t i v e . This inability to communicate with and ore that Australia exports to China annu-“Engaging through many channels and understand Australia’s largest two-way ally. Fortescue Metals Group has rein-at many levels will help us get the access trading partner has severely impacted forced its existing relationships with and clarity of voice we need,” said export businesses, particularly those Chinese partners and shareholders, in Fitzgerald at the time. “That’s what a that cater to China’s economic transition addition to signing agreements with new mature relationship would look like and to consumption-led growth. buyers. BHP CEO Mike Henry recently a good political relationship depends on A litany of regulations, inspections, addressed the China Development maintaining that intensity of contact.” and new tariffs have resulted in fresh Forum in Beijing, noting the company’s

Throughout 2020, the Australian produce exports such as lobsters and long-term commitment to the country. government’s inability to develop that cherries rotting on the docks as they “China has become [our] most impor-relationship has contributed to the dete- remain unclaimed at entry ports tant trade partner, our largest market, rioration of relations between Canberra throughout China. To seasoned China and an increasingly significant supplier and Beijing – to the extent that a number watchers, these activities have the dual of goods and services,” Henry said in his of former prime ministers, foreign min- purpose of conveying Beijing’s concern speech. “Given the strength and speed of isters, and ambassadors to China have over the relationship and activating the its economic recovery from [COVID-19], publicly expressed concern over the lack Australian business community as lob- China is in a unique position to contrib-

Australia and China:It’s Complicated

Victoria Belt and Road

By Katie HoweCanberra, Australia

Even amid the current tensions, the state of the relationship is more complex thanheadlines would suggest

s A staff member wearing a face mask stands near a display of Australian wines at the China International Import Expo in Shanghai on November 5, 2020.

Over the past fivedecades, Australia hassuccessfully built fourgenerations of Chinaspecialists ranging fromexpatriates andentrepreneurs tostudents and scientists.Some, like Rudd andAdamson, have evenreached the upperechelons of politicalleadership


tralia’s relevance to China’s key develop-ment goals. The latter include a healthy population, strong consumer market, increased renewable energy use, and a net-zero emissions economy by 2060.

Many of these initiatives have remained untouched by the fluctuations of diplomatic relations and over the past 18 months many projects have been newly established or advanced. Payne says that despite diplomatic tensions, Australia’s national brand remains strong in the mainland. “Our reputation – for providing safe, reliable, high qual-ity products – hasn’t changed at the con-sumer level,” he said. “Products in health, food, beverage and fresh produce will continue to be in demand.”

The strength and complexity of the rela-tionship rest upon a range of industry-led ventures operated at the state level of business and government. While the federal government is a Liberal / National coalition, 62 per cent of Austra-lia’s states and territories are managed by Labor governments, which are strongly connected to China.

One of the most engaged states is Western Australia, which has main-tained a government office in Shanghai since 1996. Featuring an export-led econ-omy that is heavily reliant on the agricul-tural and mining sectors, the state was recently praised in an opinion piece by China’s consul-general in Perth for its consistent support of trade and cultural exchange.

In 2020, the Queensland govern-ment completed the first round of its Commercialization Partnership Pro-gram, placing local innovators into incu-bators across China. Designed to develop technology transfer and commercializa-tion projects, the program concentrates on the agriculture, food processing, medi-cal research, and renewable energy sec-tors.

The Victorian government coordi-nates a range of programs through its China Strategy, which was introduced by Premier Daniel Andrews five years ago. It has also planned a range of infrastruc-ture developments that will boost the state’s manufacturing sector by support-ing China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Andrews has committed to traveling to China at least once every 12 months to maintain key relationships on the main-land. By contrast, the last Australian prime minister to visit China was Malcolm Turnbull in 2016.

Underpinning these projects and trade deals is Australia’s expatriate com-munity in China, which includes multi-

BUSINESS AS USUAL FOR KEY INITIATIVES

generational diplomats, trade emissar-ies, and entrepreneurs. Relations

between the embassy, the Australian Chambers of Commerce, Austrade, and the expatriate business community have remained solid throughout 2020. These channels have also been utilized recently by Australia’s minister for trade, to rein-force the importance of the China mar-ket and engage directly with those on the ground.

Payne points to the recent China International Import Expo (CIIE) as further evidence of the strength of the commercial relationship. Despite the travel and quarantine restrictions, Aus-tralia’s presence this year increased over 2019. “More than 180 Australian compa-nies were in attendance as exhibitors,” he said from Shanghai. “The mood was generally very positive and by the end of the expo a significant number of con-tracts and MOUs had been signed.”

The U.S. election has provided opportu-nities for a reset in China relations for both the United States and Australia. Considering the well-documented impact that U.S. politics has on Austra-lia’s own Capital Hill, it’s worth reflect-ing on the potential change that a Biden administration could deliver.

President-elect Biden’s trade and business policies both acknowledge the need for improved relations with China. His forward economic strategy, which focuses on building small business, sup-porting entrepreneurs, investing in tech-

LOOKING TOWARD THE BIDEN ERA

nology, and reinforcing the American manufacturing industry, implies a greater engagement with China. Most of his top trade advisors have emphasized the need to address the trade war impact on America’s farming and manufactur-ing industries.

Biden’s foreign policy priorities – addressing greenhouse gas emissions, containing the coronavirus, promoting fair trade practices, developing interna-

tional technology standards, and encouraging North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons program – also depend on a stronger relationship with Beijing. Long-time advisor and Biden’s reported secretary of state pick Antony Blinken noted at a U.S. Chamber of Com-merce event in September that economi-cally decoupling from China was “unre-al ist ic and ult imately counter-productive.”

The president-elect is also sensitive to the impact of anti-Chinese sentiment upon the U.S. electorate’s fastest-growing ethnic group, having consulted a number of community organizations prior to the election. Former National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon, a keen proponent of the Obama adminis-tration’s “pivot” to Asia and host of the 2013 summit between Barack Obama and Xi Jinping, is rumored to be Biden’s pick for ambassador to China.

Australia’s effort to simultaneously maintain strong relations with the world’s leading creditor and the world’s largest debtor will continue to be a long-term challenge for economists, policymakers, and exporters. This month, Australia deftly handled both parties by renewing its support for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue while committing to the world’s largest free trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. If this is any indi-cation of its long-term economic and geopolitical approach to the region, the coming years should be quite interest-ing.l Katie Howe has been involved in Australia-China relations since 1995.

The U.S. election hasprovided opportunitiesfor a reset in Chinarelations for both theUnited States andAustralia


Pak-US Relations and the IndianFactor

Opinion

Pakistan has always accused the US of not understanding its regional interests

stan. Pakistan’s Afghan policies stem ways: 1) India emerged as the leading or power”.from its deep-seated fear about her dominant power of the region; 2) Paki- As the war on terrorism broke out, regional standing vis-à-vis India and stan’s insecurity towards India intensi- India found a golden opportunity to Iran, the two main contenders among fied leading to the idea of ‘Strategic heighten its security concerns against many in Afghanistan. She further wrote: Depth’, and 3) ‘fear of Hindu India’ Pakistan and flaunt it as a ‘rogue’ country “The Pakistan establishment, as we saw drifted Pakistan towards the policy of sponsoring terrorism in Indian occupied in 1998, with the nuclear test, does not Islamisation. The idea behind the so- Kashmir. It had almost become a custom view assistance — even sizable assistance called Strategic Depth had been: 1) to with many countries to link their mili-to their own entities — as a trade-off for offset India’s influence in Afghanistan by tants with Al Qaeda and become recipi-

national security.” installing there a Pakistan-friendly gov- ents of the many benefits it brings. Pakistan’s inability to trust the US ernment; 2) by replacing Pashtun Burma did it with the Rohingya, perse-

emanates from the larger insecurity Paki- nationalist and separatist sentiment cuted and crushed them as the “Taliban”. stan has suffered from since its birth in with Islamism; 3) by training and pre- India was no exception. It was quick to 1947. India’s ‘plot’ to undo Pakistan or serving the ideological non-state actors link Kashmir, the flashpoint of Pakistan-make it a vassal state has been Pakistan’s India rivalry, with the War on Terror and greatest fear so far. This fear originates achieved several important military, from the role India had played in the political, economic and nuclear agree-secession of East Pakistan. It was pre- ments with the US. It also helped India cisely India that prompted Pakistan to put the Kashmir issue into the deep seek a large outside ‘balancer’. Accord- freezer.ing to Ayub Khan, “The crux of the prob- The war against terror had made lem from the very beginning was the Kabul the ‘new Kashmir’ — a battle-Indian attitude of hostility towards us: ground for India-Pakistan rivalry; but we had to look for allies to secure our choosing to ignore this strategic change, position.” the US obsessed with capturing Osama

Since the US has been unable to bin Laden, made a major mistake. By for Pakistan’s regional policy objective comprehend Pakistan’s geopolitical situ- 2005-06, Musharraf was accusing and 4) by keeping the Durand Line con-ation and the problems emanating from Karzai of giving access to Indian agents tested.having a much larger and hostile India, of Pakistan’s western borders and

To reinforce Pakistan’s security Pakistan induced a sense of obligation in blamed India’s RAW for funding the perception, the US-India relations came the minds of the Americans to do away Baloch tribes in Balochistan. Many full circle with the return of the Republi-with the power disparity with India. The senior Pakistani military officials noted can government of George W Bush in US did assist Pakistan in this regard, but that the aim was to “de-nuclearise”, “de-2001. The US took a ‘less absolutist’ view not when it was needed the most — in the radicalise” and de-Islamise” Pakistan. of New Delhi’s nuclear aspirations. The 1971 war. Interpreted as a betrayal, Paki- To achieve this purpose, they had joined Republicans described India as “one of stan learned the lesson that it could hands. The difference between the two the largest democracies of the twenty-never trust or depend on the US. It was a is: “The Americans act out of ‘stupidity’, first century”, and proclaimed that the turning point for Pakistan and the begin- as its actions have been counterproduc-Bush administration would be “more ning of its relations with China. tive to its interests. Indians, on the other sensitive to Indian security concerns, The 1971 war with India and the hand, have promoted their interests ‘cun-and more willing to accommodate resultant breakup of Pakistan affected ningly’. Knowing exactly what they are India’s own aspirations to be a great South Asia’s political dynamics in three doing.”

The relations between Pakistan was motivated by problem of national communist narrative to forge a common and the US have remained s e c u r i t y a n d d e f e n c e . ” T h i s interest with the US. Ayub Khan had enigmatic with the result that ‘asymmetrical diplomacy’ remained at assumed that the military support Paki-

people call it a relationship of the heart of both the nation’s negotiating stan received from the US could be used convenience. Pakistan accuses the US of pattern giving rise to mistrust at against India without causing a major changing sides after having used it for its different points in time. breach. In his memoir, he acknowl-objectives. The underlying reason for the Pakistan has always accused the US edged: “The objectives that the Western lack of understanding and trust between of not understanding its regional inter- powers wanted the Baghdad Pact to the two countries in spite of having come ests and demanding policies that would serve were quite different from the closer on different occasions through rather make things difficult for Pakistan. objectives we had in mind. Pakistan had different all iances and security It has been this gap that led Pakistan to never made any secret of [its] intentions agreements has been the absence of a fork into a different path while ostensi- or [its] interests and the US knew that shared vision in any issue both the bly keeping to the common cause with Pakistan would use its new arms against countries joined hands to pursue. There the US. The problem had been the its eastern neighbour.”was a relative congruence during the war absence of a sense of value to remain According to Vali Nasr, the Iranian-against the Soviets from 1979-1989, but engaged. Experts believe that Pakistan American academic and author, “Many looking deeper, even that appears to had been used as a pawn by the US to observers think that Pakistan’s regional have been used by each party to achieve its external goals, and for Paki- interest from the US are so far removed accelerate its own security agenda rather stan, it was India that it needed the US from those of the United States that no than a united common cause. As the for. degree of aid and friendship can bridge political scientist, GW Choudhry put it, Pakistan inherited a large army with the gap, making a collapse in the rela-“The United States and Pakistan were meagre resources on the partition with tionship inevitable all along.” American moving in the same direction for India. It needed US support to modern- ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson different reasons. The US was guided by ise and equip its army and arsenals that wrote in one of her cables that money i ts g lobal pol icy of containing could be used to fight with the Indians alone would not solve the problem of international communism, and Pakistan when needed. Pakistan chose an anti- Taliban and Al Qaeda operating in Paki-

By Durdana Najam@durdananajam

To reinforce Pakistan’ssecurity perception, theUS-India relations camefull circle with the returnof the Republicangovernment of GeorgeW Bush in 2001

In June 2018, in my presentation to the Supreme Court before Justice Saqib Nisar, I explained the

situation of the water power sector and the impediments in its development over the last four decades. I pointed out that we had 87 hydroelectric projects in hand and that the Bhasha Dam with 4500 MW generation was the best project which should have been started 36 years ago. The other very good project was Mohmand Dam.

It was after my presentation that the then Chief Justice started campaigning for Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dam. Prime Minister Imran Khan gave his support to this venture. He inaugurated the Mohmand Dam in May 2019 and inspected the construction of the Diamer-Bhasha Dam after the contract for its construction was signed on May 13, 2020. This is of great satisfaction to me since I had made it my mission since 1975 to push for more dams in the coun-try.

Ghulam Faruque, the chairman of the Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC), had set up the Power Development Section at PIDC. We were then a small group of engineers and this led to the establishment of West Pakistan’s Water and Power Develop-ment Authority (WAPDA) for the inte-grated and multipurpose development of water power resources.

The authority successfully com-pleted major dams and hydroelectric projects as well as other projects includ-ing salinity and water logging. In those 18 years from 1958 to 1976, we in WAPDA had completed $3.5 billion worth of projects. WAPDA was then a world class organisation. This was one of the major reasons that Pakistan was con-

sidered to be a star developing country at the time.

In 1975, when the Tarbela Dam pro-ject was nearing completion we arranged a high-level conference on the role of hydroelectric resources in the develop-ment of Pakistan. This conference was chaired by the minister for water and power and attended by 200 electrical and civil engineers including WAPDA officials and concerned federal secretar-ies.

In my keynote paper I had given two recommendations which were accepted by the conference: since Tarbela was nearing completion we should urgently take up major hydroelectric projects on the Indus and to determine which sites and in what order the projects on the Indus should be undertaken; and a rank-

ing study to be done by a reputable for-eign consulting company.

Action on these decisions was delayed because during General Zia’s martial law, starting in 1977, economic and social development was not a prior-ity. WAPDA’s three retired general chairmen for the next 15 years could build the hydroelectric projects. Kick-backs could only be had by placing orders for thermal power stations; hence only thermal power stations were built for over four decades.

Despite this, the 1975 high-level decision of conducting the feasibility studies on the Indus sites and the rank-ing was carried out by the reputable Montréal Engineering Company between the years 1981 to 1984. They ranked eight projects on the Indus and ranked Bhasha the best project techni-cally and economically, noting that it would displace the least number of peo-ple.

As a member of the Planning Com-mission’s Energy Working Group in1991-92, I presented a programme of 34 large and medium hydroelectric pro-jects and hundreds of small ones.

These projects were taken up in year 2000 by WAPDA’s member water Sardar Tariq in the programme for water power development and they called it WAPDA’s Vision 2025. They got it approved by the chief executive and started work on refining feasibility stud-ies of a large number of projects.

Pakistan is blessed with a large hydroelectric potential and should not ignore it. It has been my life-long mis-sion to push for hydroelectric develop-ment. I have stressed this necessity in various conferences and symposiums and will continue to do so.

Civil service reforms have been making the headlines. A host of measures have been proposed

recently such as directory retirement rules, performance contracts, revised promotion rules, a new rotation policy and creation of National Executive Service. Most of these ideas however have been proposed in the past in some form or the other. In fact, civil service reforms have been quite popular with successive governments ever since the creation of Pakistan.

In 1948, the Justice Munir Commis-sion introduced salary cuts. In 1958, the Administrative Reorganization Com-mittee created the present-day Section Officer system in the secretariat. Justice Cornelius also headed two successive bodies in 1959 and 1969 and proposed some restructuring measures but those were never implemented. In 1970s, the National Pay Commission and the Administrative Reform Committee, under the socialist influence, created 22 unified pay grades that have lasted ever since.

All these changes however hap-pened without much dilution in bureau-cratic powers on ground until the Law Reforms Ordinance of 1972, when the magistrates were stripped of the powers of committal proceedings and public prosecutors took up the gatekeeping function. This was later validated by a Supreme Court judgment in 1996, sepa-rating executive from judiciary and lim-iting the powers of executive magis-trates.

Then in 2001, General Musharraf’s devolution scheme altogether trans-formed the civil service functioning in districts. The Deputy Commissioners were divested of the so-called benign executive magistracy powers and the prestigious title of ‘DC’ that they have held since the British era. This was a mas-sive blow to the civil service and espe-cially the all-powerful District Manage-ment Group. Many thought it would be the end of civil service as they knew it.

But the resilient steel structure cre-

ated by the British did not crumble. Instead it metamorphosed into a new form, which perhaps was more suited to modern day needs and also much more powerful. Under the politically elected Nazims, the District Coordination Offi-cers became directly responsible for 13 departments and started enjoying exec-utive powers over offices like works, edu-cation and health, over which they had only been exercising informal influence.

Once the politically elected local govern-ments were gone, the DCOs became even more powerful. This system however was reversed later and the DCOs were transformed back to DCs, with much lesser powers.

Besides the Pakistan Administra-tive Service, other service groups were also subjected to numerous changes over the years, such as massive reforms in police under the Police Order of 2002

and transformation of the Income Tax group into the Inland Revenue Service.

In parallel, the ambition of civil ser-vice reforms lingered on. The National Commission of Government Reforms presented its findings in 2008 but were not implemented. Under the PML-N government, Ahsan Iqbal was given the task to reform the civil service and many of the proposed measures that we see today such as performance contracting were proposed during his time but could not be implemented. Most recently, the PTI government also created two task forces on civil service reforms, a pay and pension committee and a cabinet com-mittee on institutional reforms.

Notwithstanding these umpteen commissions and committees, the civil service structure has only deteriorated with time. The civil servants feel that they are inadequately compensated, held overly accountable and face a host of external pressures that prevent them from doing their job. On the other hand, the politicians believe that civil servants have become increasingly non-responsive to their needs, delay imple-mentation of their decisions and have a vested interest to resist change.

These diametrically opposite views however are the primary reason why these reforms failed to make a dent. Unless and until the two sides come to a consensus on problems and remedies of the civil service, no number of commis-sions can reverse the downward trend in civil services.

l The writer is a public policy expert and an honorary Fellow of Consortium for Development Policy Research.


In Support of Large DamsPoint of View

Pakistan is blessed with a large hydroelectric potential and should not ignore it

By Imtiaz Ali Qazilbash@ETOpEd

The 1975 high-leveldecision of conductingthe feasibility studieson the Indus sites andthe ranking was carriedout by the reputableMontréal EngineeringCompany between theyears 1981 to 1984. Theyranked eight projects onthe Indus and rankedBhasha the best projecttechnically andeconomically, notingthat it would displacethe least number ofpeople

Under the PML-Ngovernment, AhsanIqbal was given the taskto reform the civilservice and many of theproposed measures thatwe see today such asperformance contractingwere proposed duringhis time but could not beimplemented

Umpteen Commissions onCivil Service Reforms

Perspective

Unless the two sides come to consensus on problems of the civil service, no commissioncan reverse the downward trend

By Hasaan Khawar@hasaankhawar


Pak-Afghan Trust DeficitMilitary Vs Militants

The election of Joe Biden as US president has added new dimensions to the alreadycomplex situation

Prime Minister Imran Khan undertook his maiden visit to Kabul last month. He was

accompanied by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, DG ISI Lt-Gen Faiz Hameed and other senior officials. The visit was important in the context of Afghanistan’s current situation.

While the intra-Afghan talks are underway in Doha, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been trying for months to remove mistrust between them. The heart of the problem is the series of com-plaints both have against each other. Afghanistan has long accused Pakistan of harbouring or supporting the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. The rhetoric was lowered in recent months after Pakistan played a key role in bring-ing the Taliban to the negotiating table but the trust deficit is far from over. Simi-larly, Pakistan has its own grievances. It has openly stated that the Afghan soil is being used by groups such as outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch terrorist groups to create trouble in Pakistan. Not long ago, DG ISPR Major General Iftikhar and FM Qureshi presented what they termed “irrefutable proofs” against India for using Afghan soil against Pakistan.

Against this backdrop, the key issue between the two countries is to address concerns for each other. In the past, efforts and promises were made but noth-ing changed on ground as blame game continued. At the conclusion of PM Imran’s daylong visit, a joint statement mentioned specific steps the two sides agreed to in order to address each other’s security concerns.

“By December 15, 2020: Re-energising joint intelligence services-led work on analysing, mapping and cooper-ating against enemies of peace and those undermining the peace process.”

This part of the joint statement was the most significant. Both countries have set a clear timeline to deal with the issue of militants or groups that pose a threat to each other.

But will both sides really implement this plan? The question is valid since past efforts could not bring positive results.

In 2011, Pakistan’s ISI and Afghanistan’s NDS agreed on an MoU for intelligence sharing and cooperation. However, the then NDS chief refused to sign the MoU as the Ghani administration faced stiff resistance from within on the issue. As a result that agreement could not see the light of the day. The elements skeptical of Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace pro-cess are still in the Kabul administration and may undermine the push for seeking cooperation between the two intelli-

gence agencies.To ensure the latest initiative does

not meet the same fate as the previous effort, there has to be a greater role from the leadership of the two countries. Increased and better communication at the highest level is one way to go about. The positive thing is that PM Imran’s visit is not one-off. The two countries agreed to continue these high-level exchanges. Ghani accepted Imran’s visit and is likely to travel to Islamabad in the

first quarter of 2021.While all eyes are on the intra-

Afghan dialogue, if Pakistan and Afghan-istan are able to develop a mechanism whereby instead of indulging in blame game they address their concerns through talks and behind the scenes this would go a long way in shaping not just the bilateral ties but also regional peace. It’s a tough task as spoilers within and outside Afghanistan will certainly make all-out efforts to undermine any initia-

tive that brings Pakistan and Afghani-stan closer. The election of Joe Biden as US president has added new dimensions to the already complex situation. On paper, he may not have much difference with Trump on Afghanistan, but he may review the agreement with the Taliban with a view to extracting more conces-sions from the insurgent group. This will certainly put added pressure on Paki-stan.

By Kamran Yousaf@Kamran_Yousaf


Can Biden Salvage The IranNuclear Deal?

Strategic Studies

Biden administration would have to first ascertain its expectations, pre-conditions priorto talks with Iranian govt

allies and Israel, who oppose the nuclear deal.

Iranian presidential elections are scheduled to be held in June 2021 and would prove a decisive factor in deter-mining the trajectory of the US-Iran rela-tions through the next four years. Trump’s abortive campaign to maximise pressure on Iran facilitated the rise of right-wing conservative political wave of dissent against the US within Iran. The US drone strike on the Iranian Revolu-

When President Donald T r u m p u n i l a t e r a l l y abandoned the Iran nuclear

deal on May 8, 2018, it initiated a series of unfortunate events plunging the Iran-US relations into a deep pit of despair. In these twilight months of his presidency, Trump resorted to imposing a series of harsh sanctions against Iranian banks and individuals. This will only add an unnecessary layer of bureaucratic rigmarole for president-elect Joe Biden’s administration to unravel if it chooses to mend ties with Iran. In the event of doing so, the first order of business would be to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal. But would it be so easily done?

The incoming Biden administration would have to at first ascertain its expec-tations and pre-conditions prior to talks with the Iranian government with refer-ence the latter’s violations of the JCPOA and its regional behaviour. It is an essen-tial pre-requisite as Iranian officials have indicated frequently that re-negotiation of the 2015 agreement is unquestion-able. Thus, managing expectations and careful utilisation of leverage that both sides hold is crucial for a possible return to the JCPOA.

The US would also have to take all its allies on board, especially the EU signa-tories, while reassuring them that it is a reliable signatory of multilateral agree-ments. Trump’s unceremonious depar-ture from the JCPOA had previously left its European allies in the lurch, scram-bling to keep Iran compliant to the deal and prevent regional instability. Thus, gaining back the trust of its long-term allies would require the US to present a clear policy toward Iran. In case of a pos-sible reinstatement of the deal, the US must also prepare to appease its Arab

tionary Guard Corps (IRGC) com-mander, General Qassem Soleimani, ordered by Trump following which anti-US protests erupted within Iran, was the final nail in the coffin.

All these measures have prompted an increase in anti-US narrative in the Iranian political scenario making it harder to negotiate with the US or its Western allies regarding easing the crip-pling sanctions on Iran. This difficulty is likely to continue if the US fails to indi-cate its willingness to engage Iran in sub-stantive talks leading to concrete steps that might address the latter’s economic woes. Thus, for the new US president, the time to act will be during the initial months of his presidency so a multilat-eral agreement can be put in place pre-venting Iran from further uranium enrichment and violating the nuclear deal.

The overarching US po l i cy approach toward Iran is unlikely to change under Biden as he has indicated during his campaign that he would seek to limit Iran’s regional activities and take tough measures, if provoked by Iran’s continued uranium enrichment steps. The new US administration will find its hands full undoing Trump administra-tion’s policies in this region. Trump’s abandoning of the JCPOA was unilat-eral, abrupt and quite hasty, however, salvaging the deal would have to be a gradual and multilateral process in nature. Patience on both sides will be key and let us hope that sanity prevails all over for a better chance of long-term regional peace and stability.

that since Covid cases in Gaza have reached calamitous stages, it is only a matter of time before the Palestinian enclave medical system completely col-lapses.

There is however a thin ray of light for the Palestinian populace. On Sep-tember 24, an agreement was reached between the two Palestinian factions: Hamas and Fatah, where the two sides agreed to hold the first elections in nearly 15 years. Most recently, on November 17, the two sides met in Cairo to discuss implementation of reconcilia-tion towards elections. Elections have not been held in Palestine since 2006.

PALESTINE DURING THE TRUMP ERAThere is no doubt that the Trump admin-istration has profoundly changed the political panorama for the Palestinian issue. While over the years, the United States has always supported Israel - pay-ing mere lip service to the two-state solu-

For the Palestinians, their trials and tribulations have only intensified. Even today, Israel

continues to bomb the Gaza Strip on an almost daily basis. Israeli settlement expansion continues unabated. In the past month alone, there have been plans to add 6205 settlement units on Palestinian land. According to the World Bank, the Palestinian economy is estimated to shrink by almost 8 percent this year as it struggles in the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic. Unemployment in the West Bank and Gaza is at 18.2% and 48.5% respectively.

The coronavirus pandemic is spreading at an exponential rate in Gaza, which has been described by many as the world’s largest open-air prison as well as one of the most overcrowded areas on the planet. Complications arising from lack of Covid-19 testing kits and personal protective equipment (PPE) are being further compounded by Israeli imposed blockades on medical supplies reaching Gaza. Health officials have forewarned

tion, while giving Israel free reins to do as they pleased – the Trump government did not hesitate to set the bar high in terms of crushing what little hope the Palestinians had.

After giving false hopes to the Pales-tinians in the form of an ultimate deal which would resolve the conflict, Presi-dent Trump proceeded to recognize Jeru-salem as Israel’s capital and even moved the US Embassy there from Tel Aviv, thus cementing his campaign promises of giving great importance to the evan-gelical Christians as well as the Jewish lobby in the US. Concurrently, he refused to denounce the illegal Israeli settlement expansion and instead in the face of Palestinian outcry, withdrew fund-ing to the United Nations Relief & Works Agency (UNRWA) on which millions of Palestinians depend on for sustenance. His Middle East plan recognized Israeli sovereignty over Israeli expansion over settlement blocs in the occupied West Bank. According to the new map, Pales-tine would consist of boroughs of frag-

By Fatima [email protected]

The US drone strikeon the Iraniancommander, GeneralQassem Soleimani,ordered by Trumpfollowing which anti-USprotests erupted withinIran, was the final nailin the coffin. For thenew US president, thetime to act will beduring the initial monthsof his presidency so amultilateral agreementcan be put in placepreventing Iran fromfurther uraniumenrichment andviolating the nucleardeal

What The Future Holds ForPalestine?

Middle East Landscape

The Palestinian struggle has long been an accepted moto in Arab/Muslim narrations andcontinues to be used to this day to mobilize the populace

By Arhama Siddiqa@arhama_siddiqa



after four years of unrelenting assault on rebuffed calls for leveraging US aid to their rights and aspirations. Already, it Israel in order to pressure the latter, stat-can be seen that in the period before Joe ing that the idea of cutting of aid to the Biden takes office, the Palestinian US ‘only true ally in the region’ was abso-Authority (PA) is making moves such as lutely unthinkable. Though he initially re-establishing security ties with Israel opposed the shifting of the US embassy, and sending Palestinian officials back to he has clearly said his administration Bahrain and the UAE, despite their offi- will not reverse this decision and will cial recognition of the state of Israel. All instead reopen the US consulate in East these steps are an effort to return to the Jerusalem in order to serve the Palestin-status quo. Of course, given the devastat- ians. He has also enunciated on several ing situation in Gaza, this also is an occasions that under his supervision, the opportune time for the PA to collect the US will renew all ties with the PA and $890 million in tax transfers, Israel has reverse the cancellation of support to been withholding due to severing of ties Palestinian sustenance programs be it in May. for economic development or humani-

While Biden is a strong advocate of tarian assistance. However, these are the two-state solution, he has always also conditioned only if the PA stops wel-

fare payments to the families of Palestin-ian prisoners and terrorists who have been slain by Israeli forces.

On the subject of the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) move-ment, the new US President is a unwa-vering adversary and has clearly depicted that he believes this lobby is “wrong”. With reference to the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan rapprochement with Israel, Biden has encouraged it and urged other Arab states to engage in bolder steps toward normalization with Israel.

CONCLUSIONAll things considered, there will be a radi-cal departure from unconditional, open advocacy for Israel towards some con-sideration of Palestinian rights in terms of tone and diplomatic approach. How-ever, it is also very clear that President Trump’s policies of appeasement of the Israeli far right will not vanish with a new US administration. Now more than ever, Palestinians need to present a united stand and thus create a political strategy which goes beyond dependence on an American policy towards a Palestinian solution and can counter Israeli disre-gard for any semblance of peace or adherence to international law.

mented land and capital in occupied East Jerusalem.

During his final year, he also medi-ated Israeli rapprochement with three Arab states (UAE, Bahrain and Sudan) in exchange for suspending annexation. Annexation is however continuing to this day and the Palestinian cause is more isolated than ever.

WHAT DOES THE FUTURE HOLD FOR PALESTINE UNDER BIDEN?The results of the US 2020 elections have been taken by many as a precursor of some breathing space to the Palestinians

share. structural adjustment programmes If we look at the voting allocations in across the global South over the past 40

per capita terms, the inequalities are years. These programmes – focused on revealed to be truly extreme. For every privatisation, austerity, and forced mar-vote that the average person in the global ket liberalisation – have created lucra-North has, the average person in the tive profit opportunities for multina-global South has only one-eighth of a tional companies, but have had a devas-vote (and the average South Asian has tating effect on the South: during the only one-20th of a vote). 1980s and 90s, they caused incomes to

Not only is there minority control decline and poverty to rise, and in some over global economic policymaking, cases triggered decades of recession and there is also a clear racial imbalance at stagnation. To this day they continue to play: on average, the votes of people of have a negative impact on health out-colour are worth only a fraction of their comes, including infant and maternal counterparts. If this was the case in any mortality.particular country, we would be out- There have long been calls by civil raged. We would call it apartheid. Yet a society and political leaders in the global form of apartheid operates right at the South to democratise the World Bank heart of international economic gover- and the IMF. At minimum, critics have nance today, and has come to be argued that the leaders of these institu-accepted as “normal”. tions should be elected in a transparent

Voting power in the World Bank is process. And they have called for a “dou-allocated according to each country’s ble majority” system such that signifi-financial shares. In the IMF, it is primar- cant decisions should require not only ily according to gross domestic product shareholder majorities but also mem-(GDP), with some consideration also ber-state majorities.given to a country’s “market openness”. For decades, these demands have As a result, the countries that became fallen on deaf ears. But this year they rich during the colonial period now enjoy received a boost from the UN Secretary-disproportionate power when it comes General António Guterres, who, while to determining the rules of the global giving a lecture for the Nelson Mandela economy. Inequality begets inequality. Foundation, called for democratic

Defenders of this system argue that reform of voting power at the World this is a legitimate approach: it makes Bank and the IMF. This represents an sense, they say, that bigger economies historic opening, and campaigners should have more power over decisions should seize it. If we want to have a shot related to the global economy. at a fairer global economy, we need to

These imbalances in voting power start by decolonising the institutions of help explain why the World Bank and the economic governance.IMF have been able to impose neoliberal

Most people assume that inequality between the global South and the global North

(the United States, Western Europe, Japan, Canada and Australia) has been declining over the past few decades. After all, colonialism is behind us, and surely poorer countries are gradually “catching up” to richer ones. But, oddly enough, exactly the opposite has happened. The per capita income gap between the South and the North has quadrupled in size since 1960, in what can only be described as a striking pattern of divergence.

This trend is due in large part to power imbalances in the world economy. To put it simply, rich countries have dis-proportionate influence when it comes to setting the rules of international trade and finance – and they tend to do it in ways that serve their own economic interests, quite often at the expense of everyone else.

Nowhere is this problem more apparent than when it comes to the dis-tribution of power in the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), two of the key institutions that govern global economic policy. We might expect that representation in these institutions would be modelled along the lines of the United Nations General Assembly, or perhaps calculated according to population. But in reality, they are deeply undemocratic.

The problem starts at the top. The leaders of the World Bank and the IMF are not elected, but are nominated by the US and Europe. According to an unspo-ken agreement, the president of the World Bank has always been from the US, while the president of the IMF has always been European.

Moreover, voting power in these institutions is skewed heavily in favour of rich countries. The US has de facto veto power over all significant decisions, and together with the rest of the G7 and the European Union controls well over half of the vote in both agencies. Middle- and low-income countries, which together constitute 85 percent of the world’s population, have a minority

While Biden is astrong advocate of thetwo-state solution, hehas always rebuffedcalls for leveraging USaid to Israel in order topressure the latter,stating that the idea ofcutting of aid to the US‘only true ally in theregion’ was absolutelyunthinkable

Apartheid in the World Bankand the IMF

World Bank

These institutions were designed with colonial principles in mind, and they remainlargely colonial in character to this day

By Jason Hickel@jasonhickel

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and Afghan- of weakness and as an affirmation of the istan’s Taliban – also brought uncer- limits of US power.tainty on the international scene. Biden Trump has overly invested in the will likely bring back positive engage- Middle East with emphasis on a ment with traditional allies, especially in transactional approach, and Middle East Europe, and return to foreign policy rhet- leaders should prepare to not to be over-oric that can be more easily anticipated. indulged by Washington in the next four

years. His core approach was the advancement of an Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran at the expense of traditional Arab partners like Jordan, and the sup-port of disparate allies ranging from Tur-key’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman.

Unlike Trump, the Biden presi-dency will most probably be reactive instead of proactive in the Middle East. This means minimal engagement with Iran, complex relations with Turkey and the appeasement of Israel. Biden will be somewhere between Trump and Obama and will have to reckon with Trump’s legacy in the Middle East, which includes new preconditions to strike a deal with Iran and a timid Arab-Israeli normalisa-tion process.

Some Middle Eastern leaders are wary of the coming change in Washing-ton. If the Biden administration sets a new tone in exposing their authoritari-anism or goes too far in engaging the Iranian regime, these staunch Trump allies might be inclined to ignore Biden’s demands on human rights issues and

Third, there will likely be a major exploit their new alliance with Israel to

shift in the US priorities in the Middle stand their ground. They can directly

East. The Biden administration will cooperate with Israel or use its clout in

most likely align with the thinking of the Washington to pressure the Biden

Washington establishment, seeking to administration.

pull US resources out of the Middle East The legacy of the outgoing Trump

to focus on deterring Russia and China, a presidency may offer some opportuni-

move that Trump is now making more ties for the new administration moving

difficult by antagonising Iran.forward, but the regional challenges will

The Biden administration will seek persist. The Trump team has already

to mitigate conflicts across the Middle planted a field of foreign policy land-

East and will most probably face resis-mines in the Middle East and clearing it

tance from concerned actors looking to over the next four years will be a fraught

maximise their strategic positions. This endeavour. Middle East leaders will test

expected shift of priorities in Washing-Biden early on and the new US president

ton to deter Russia and China on a global will have to show some spine if he is to be

scale will be most probably be viewed by taken seriously over the next four years.

Middle East leaders once again as a sign

exact opposite of Trump’s and to bring back aspects of Barack Obama’s. But this may not be the case, as his recent appointments of national security offi-cials have shown. However, the new administration will certainly change the way US foreign policy is conducted in at least three ways.

First, institutional decision making will be restored in Washington. US for-eign policy under Trump was danger-ously personalised by a leader with nar-cissistic and authoritarian inclinations, which helped foreign leaders gain more influence in the White House. Officials who challenged his authority were fired from his administration or pushed to resign and those who stayed were loyal-ists or opportunists. Traditional foreign policymaking was sidelined and so was inter-agency cooperation. Trump did not trust key institutions like the Penta-gon and the State Department, which were defunded or marginalised under his administration.

Once Biden and the Democrats are officially in power, Middle East leaders will no longer be able to get their way by exchanging late-night WhatsApp mes-sages with Trump’s son-in-law or pre-tend the US State Department is a trivial agency. They will have to turn to tradi-tional diplomacy, dealing with the embassies and official emissaries. The re-establishment of this institutional process also means a return to rivalries between US agencies over foreign policy issues, most notably in the Middle East. This will likely slow down the decision-making process in Washington.

Second, the Biden administration will bring back the predictability of US foreign policy. The domestic turmoil of Trump’s presidency – the high-level investigations, the impeachment, the racial tensions, the Twitter rants, the constant change of appointed officials, etc – affected not only US politics but also political dynamics abroad.

The outgoing president’s penchant for unconventional foreign policy moves – using tariffs as a political tool, bashing allies, casually issuing threats to use force, and engaging traditional foes like


Trump is Leaving Biden A LandmineField in the Middle East

US Presidency

Biden will bring change to policy-making in Washington, but he will still struggle withTrump’s legacy

By Joe Macaron@macaronjoe

for Iran and Venezuela Elliott Abrams, Mohammed bin Salman now seems Assistant Secretary for Political-Military inclined to resolve the dispute with Qatar Affairs R Clarke Cooper from the State (even though it is not clear yet if he will Department and the White House give this foreign policy win to Trump or adviser, Jared Kushner. Biden) and ease relations with Turkey;

Meanwhile, Trump has ramped up he is also more cautious about normali-sanctions on Iran and is suspected of sation with Israel. MBS is aiming to giving a green light for Israel to kill Ira- defuse tensions so he can start on the n ian nuc lear sc ient is t Mohsen right foot with the Biden administration.Fakhrizadeh. A US aircraft carrier group Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-led by the nuclear-powered USS Nimitz Sisi seems to be making conciliatory has also moved back into the Gulf region. moves. The Egyptian government has This offensive posture seems linked to been releasing political prisoners in US domestic politics rather than to a recent weeks. In Turkey, Erdogan has clear policy objective. felt less constrained to let go of his son-

Allies of the outgoing administra- in-law Berat Albayrak as finance minis-tion in the Middle East may have con- ter whose primary added value until gratulated Biden, but they are also giving recently was being the indispensable the impression that they will join hands contact person for Kushner and Trump’s with Trump and the political opposition White House. Iran is also trying to avoid to the Democratic White House he will escalation in the region, hoping to poten-soon lead. tially restore nuclear talks with Biden

Still, they, along with the rest of the and get US sanctions relief.Middle East, are gearing up for the Biden It seems Middle Eastern leaders are presidency. Saudi Crown Prince expecting Biden’s presidency to be the

United State President Donald Trump has caused much damage by questioning the

legitimacy of the US elections and the victory of his opponent, Joe Biden. His refusal to accept the results of the vote has not only caused much trouble at home but it has also undermined the image of the United States abroad and its moral authority to preach smooth power t rans i t ion and commitment to democratic ideals to foreign leaders.

This, along with the policies he is leaving behind after four years in the White House, is setting up a turbulent transition for Biden at home and most probably a rough start for the new administration abroad, especially in the Middle East.

In recent weeks, Trump’s adminis-tration has been giving unprecedented attention to the region. At least four US officials have visited Israel and close Gulf allies in recent weeks: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Special Representative

s US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia John Abizaid and Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan greet Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his wifeSusan as they arrive at Neom Bay Airport in Neom, Saudi Arabia on November 22, 2020

This expected shift ofpriorities in Washingtonto deter Russia andChina on a global scalewill be most probably beviewed by Middle Eastleaders once again as asign of weakness and asan affirmation of thelimits of US power

Some Middle Easternleaders are wary of thecoming change inWashington. If theBiden administrationsets a new tone inexposing theirauthoritarianism orgoes too far in engagingthe Iranian regime,these staunch Trumpallies might be inclinedto ignore Biden’sdemands on humanrights issues and exploittheir new alliance withIsrael to stand theirground


The Importance of Being G-BG-B Polling

Nothing can bar G-B’s people from taking in their own hands power to self-rule with theregion’s security underwritten

Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) has, since the advent of the $62 billion CPEC, become too important for

Pakistan in the context of both geopolitics and geo-economics to be t r e a t e d a s n o m o r e t h a n a n inconsequential backyard of the country. More so because CPEC is an integral part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

So, the earlier we merge, via an appropriate constitutional amendment, G-B into Pakistan as our fifth province the better it would be for both Pakistan and China and our mutual economic progress. But the wisdom of this move would need to be first tested against its impact, one way or the other, on our case that India had violated the relevant UN resolutions by merging Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) with the Indian Union. And mind you, there is no such thing as “provisional provincial status”. Those soliciting the political support of G-B’s people by selling them such dubious notions are only indulging in deception.

However, nothing can bar G-B’s people from taking in their own hands the powers to self-rule with the region’s security underwritten by Pakistan, no matter which political party or coalition of parties rules in Islamabad at any given time.

As such, electing a government to rule G-B should be a matter concerning solely its people and that of the region’s election commission (EC) which should guarantee level-playing field to any political party with roots in G-B to con-test the election. That the contesting parties in the just concluded election not only lacked a level-playing field but also faced a number of pitfalls has dented to an extent the credibility of the results.

According to FAFEN’s preliminary report a vibrant and competitive election campaign turned intense and heated towards the end over the controversy of federal minsters running election cam-paigns in violation of legal limits.

Gender disaggregated turnout data was not available for GBA-8 Skardu-II, GBA-9 Skardu-III, GBA-12 Shigar, GBA-

13 Astore-I, GBA-15 Diamer-I, GBA-17 Diamer-III, which prevented the Elec-tion Commission of Gilgit Baltistan (ECGB) from implementing the provi-sions of Section 9(1) of the Elections Act, 2017 requiring re-polling in one or more polling stations or the entire constitu-ency if female turnout is less than 10% of the total votes polled in that constitu-ency.

At places breaches of the secrecy of vote was witnessed as “stamping of bal-lots by others on behalf of voters, and voters registered at the polling stations turned away for various reasons despite having their NICs”.

Similarly, the ECGB did not consis-tently ensure the provision of Form 45 (the Result of the Count) and Form 46 (the Ballot Paper Account) to all polling agents present at the polling stations

during the vote counting process, which would have helped enhance the integrity of the election results management. At places presiding officers had to issue polling station results to the polling agents on plain papers under their stamps and signatures, the legality of which has yet to be established.

Instances of polling agents seated where they could not observe the voting process were reported from six constitu-encies. More serious were reports that candidates and their agents were barred from ROs’ offices during the preparation of the preliminary results in at least three constituencies, and delays in the release of provisional results on Form-47 (Pro-visional Consolidated Statement of Results of the Count) in more than 10 constituencies. These issues also caused major political contenders to question the credibility of the outcome and raise allegations of electoral fraud.

The ECGB could have released results progressively as they were received from the polling stations to ensure media reported accurate official results promptly, instead of using a par-allel system to gather information and report unofficial and potentially unreli-able results.

This preliminary report is based on the summary observation of 436 polling stations observed in 23 constituencies, more than 37% of 1,137 polling stations — 385 male, 386 female and 402 com-bined.

Incidents of minor violence inside polling stations involving candidates, polling agents, political workers and polling staff were observed in 47.8% constituencies.

By M. Ziauddin@MuhammadZiauddi

More serious werereports that candidatesand their agents werebarred from ROs’ officesduring the preparationof the preliminaryresults in at least threeconstituencies, anddelays in the release ofprovisional results onForm-47 (ProvisionalConsolidated Statementof Results of the Count)in more than 10constituencies

on track. Given the scale of the economic disruption caused by the pandemic, some countries will require more than debt relief – they will need a clean start.

Across the board, it is well accepted that once the pandemic is over, the global economy will look much different than before. Countries are now spending for recovery, but once the dust is settled, they will all find themselves in an eco-nomic landscape much different to the one before the pandemic.

As such, future income will be hard to predict and this means that the debt restructuring exercises under existing schemes or a new expanded initiative could prolong, rather than resolve, the core solvency problems of certain states.

The G20 should therefore work with the IMF and World Bank to help coun-tries better understand their growth potential, and where projected income is highly uncertain, provide for outright debt relief.

In this way, highly indebted and possibly insolvent countries will have the

its debt restructuring and suspension space and time to restructure their econ-schemes to struggling middle-income omies in line with the opportunities pre-countries. In fact, it is clear that offering sented by the post-COVID-19 landscape.support to a wider range of countries would increase the speed of global eco- COMMONWEALTH nomic recovery.

SUPPORTExpanding the scope of these The Commonwealth is ideally positioned schemes also makes political sense for to assist the IMF and the World Bank in G20 member states.their debt relief efforts, given its already strong partnership with these institu-tions and its long-established and highly respected debt management pro-gramme.

We can only tackle the debt sustainability problems created by the pandemic, and prevent the potential follow on effects of such crises, by extending eligibility for existing debt relief schemes and offering debt write-offs for most struggling countries. These goals can be achieved through increased collaboration between the Common-wealth, global governance institutions, and the G20.

If small and vulnerable states are After months of uncertainty and not given some debt relief, they cannot suffering, we now appear close to win-support their citizens’ most basic needs. ning the fight against COVID-19. Vac-This could lead to new migration waves, cines may help us defeat this deadly virus increasing the pressures already faced by in the coming months, but if we do not rich nations that are part of the G20. act now, its effect on vulnerable econo-Moreover, a lack of debt relief could lead mies across the world will continue to to some small, middle-income countries devastate millions of people in the years becoming dependent on international to come. This pandemic could be an aid. opportunity to build a more just and pros-

perous world for everyone. But we must act now and address the systemic chal-THE NEED FOR DEBT lenges facing small and vulnerable

WRITE-OFFS nations if we are all to enjoy the dawning But simply expanding the eligibility cri- of a post-COVID-19 world.teria for COVID-19 debt restructuring and suspension schemes will also not be enough to bring the global economy back

l Patricia Janet Scotland, Baroness Scotland of Asthal PC QC, is the sixth Secretary-General of the Commonwealth of Nations. She was elected at the 2015 Common-wealth Heads of Government Meeting and took office on 1 April 2016.

iat paper demonstrated that due to the new fiscal pressures introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, the debt to GDP ratios of the 32 small state members of the Commonwealth could rise by an aver-age of 27 percentage points by the end of 2021 – twice the increase projected for other developing countries in the Com-monwealth.

Despite the economic devastation they are experiencing, some of these small states are not eligible to take part in the DSSI, because after years of pru-dent financial management and invest-ment, they are now classified as “middle-income” countries, not in need of finan-cial assistance.

Of course, despite being in the mid-dle-income bracket, these nations are also struggling with the loss of income they have experienced because of the pandemic, and they may face economic collapse if they do not receive the neces-sary assistance from the international community. And their economic strug-gles will unavoidably have an effect on the global economy.

If the G20 wants to avoid the very global disruption they have sought to prevent through the DSSI and Common Framework for Debt Treatment, they need to support more than just the poor-est countries. They need to expand the eligibility for G20 debt restructuring initiatives from just the poorest coun-tries to all nations in need of support.

Most economists agree that regard-less of a country’s income classification, debt relief is necessary when persistent debt overhang is accompanied by nega-tive or sluggish growth. In other words, there is no economic justification for the G20’s refusal to expand the eligibility for


In the Time of Pandemic, DebtRelief Efforts Need to Go Further

Coronavirus Pandemic

For the global economy to recover quickly, not only the poorest but all small andvulnerable nations should have access to debt relief

By Patricia Scotland@PScotlandCSG

weight of the extra debt they accumu- are undoubtedly important steps in the lated to respond to the pandemic. right direction, their scope is limited. For

In this context, the G20’s recent all of the world’s nations to get back on decision to extend until the middle of their feet after this unprecedented public next year the Debt Service Suspension health emergency, the debt relief efforts Initiative (the DSSI), which it introduced by the world’s richest nations need to go in April to help the world’s poorest coun- even further.tries cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis, has been most wel- THE PROBLEM OF come.

ELIGIBILITYBut extending the DSSI on its own The main factor limiting the success of cannot resolve the mammoth pandemic-these well-meaning G20 initiatives in related fiscal challenges poorer nations mitigating the economic effect of the are facing. Encouragingly, the G20 pandemic is “eligibility”.seems to recognise this, and have also

Currently, some 73 low-income introduced a “Common Framework for countries around the world are eligible Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI”, to take advantage of the DSSI. However, which aims to address the problem of many small, middle-income countries, unsustainable debts many DSSI-eligible who are also suffering the economic con-countries will continue to face in the sequences of the pandemic, are left out of aftermath of the pandemic on a case-by-this initiative and its extension.case basis.

A recent Commonwealth Secretar-While these initiatives by the G20

In the last few months, due to the devastating effect the coronavirus pandemic has had on the global

economy, the fiscal clock has been ticking more rapidly than ever before for many small and vulnerable states across the world.

With Joe Biden’s victory in the United States presidential election, which increased the possibility for mean-ingful global cooperation on pressing issues disproportionately affecting vul-nerable states like climate change, cou-pled with the development of several COVID-19 vaccines that could help bring the pandemic under control, these coun-tries recently started to see a faint light at the end of the tunnel.

But the path to economic salvation is still full of obstacles, and the upcoming winter months are still expected to be long and dark for many nations whose economies are crumbling under the

s A combo of photos of world leaders attending the virutal G20 Riyadh Summit. The G20 recentlydecided to extend until the middle of next year the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (the DSSI),which it introduced in April to help the world’s poorest countries cope with the economic fallout of theCOVID-19 crisis.

The G20 shouldtherefore work with theIMF and World Bank tohelp countries betterunderstand their growthpotential, and whereprojected income ishighly uncertain,provide for outrightdebt relief


Lessons Learned From COVID-19Can Help Us Fight Climate Change

Climate Change

Just like COVID-19, climate change is destroying lives and ruining livelihoods on a dailybases across the world

dreds of thousands of lives and liveli- the coronavirus pandemic. And we are hoods unnecessarily lost to this disease already paying the price for ignoring should serve as a warning to not repeat climate science – there are more fires, the mistakes of the recent past, and be floods, droughts and other unpredict-prepared for similar threats that able weather events across the world undoubtedly await us in the future. today than ever before.

While we do not know what disease While climate change is undoubt-outbreaks we may face in the coming edly a global problem, the African conti-years, there is one threat that we know is nent is expected to be the region hardest already at our doorstep: climate change. hit by its consequences.

Today, climate change is still the The World Meteorological Organi-most significant threat to global eco- zation (WMO) recently warned that nomic and social stability. Scientists say 2016-2020 is expected to be the warmest we have a critical and rapidly closing five-year period in Africa on record, and window of opportunity to curb the dev- rang the alarm bells for the fate of agri-astating effects of climate change by lim- culture, public health systems, water iting global temperature rises to 1.5 resources and disaster management degrees Celsius. capabilities on the continent. A

We know what happens when sci- Greenpeace report published earlier this ence is ignored – we have seen the conse- year, meanwhile, warned of extreme quences of not taking warnings from heat becoming the new normal in most scientists seriously in the early phases of countries on the continent if the temper-

he pressing need to develop a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine Tand make it available to everyone

everywhere to bring an end to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic resulted in a rare collaboration between world governments, scientists and private drug manufacturers.

The economic and social devasta-tion caused by this catastrophic global public health emergency not only under-lined the importance of multilateral international collaboration, but also forced us to acknowledge the glaring social and economic inequalities that exist both in wealthy and poor countries.

The pandemic showed us what hap-pens when political leaders dismiss sci-ence and refuse to take the necessary steps to protect all their citizens, and the rest of humanity, from public health crises and other natural disasters. Hun-

up-to-date, detailed data on the climate but are they really doing anything to pre-crisis’ effects on the continent is almost vent similar disasters in the future? Are impossible. Nobody is bothering to they implementing the policies neces-count the lives lost and ruined due to sary to prevent global warming?climate change. And if you do not count, If we do not act, and act fast, we will if you do not make everyone aware of the experience temperatures up to 6 degrees magnitude of the crisis, you cannot Celsius higher than today by the end of resolve the crisis. this century. The future of all our chil-

The weather disasters in Africa dren, the future of humanity at large, is often get minimal media coverage. Tele- at risk. For this we must all be leaders vision channels and newspapers report and take charge of our own destiny. We on any given disaster for a few days, pub- need to demand that our governments lish the death toll and some statistics on declare a climate emergency and take the estimated economic damage, and action. We also need to be open to mak-move on to another story. Yet for those ing adjustments to our ways of life. We affected, the disaster itself is just the do not need to be brave – we just need to

be realistic. If we do not adapt, global warming is going to destroy us: with cyclones, flash floods, droughts, fires, extreme heat waves, and wildfires.

As we finally near the end of the coronavirus pandemic, and as govern-ments start to make plans to rebuild econ-omies devastated by this global health crisis, we need to make climate change our new focus. Especially in the Sahel region, where the devastating conse-quences of climate change are already being felt by many, it is time to declare a climate emergency and embark on a “green” recovery that aims to help not only the masses affected by COVID-19, but also millions of others suffering because of climate change.

Reinventing the economy to be car-bon neutral will require strong political leadership, and collaboration between

beginning. When their crops disappear governments and the private sector. But under floodwaters or pastures burn up in we, the people, can also do a lot to help flames, hunger becomes a daily reality kick start change. We can demand our for communities. The natural resources leaders to make the climate emergency a they relay on to survive start to dwindle, policy priority. We can make small water becomes scarce and all this often changes to our own lives to help protect leads to increased tensions and conflicts. the environment. We can support those Homes, schools and marketplaces actively fighting for climate justice.destroyed by natural disasters remain in Unfortunately, we cannot defeat ruins for years, increasing homeless- climate change simply by isolating in our ness. With the destruction of health and homes, wearing masks, and creating a sanitation infrastructures, coupled with vaccine. To defeat climate change, we rising temperatures, diseases like need to build an entire new political and malaria and typhoid become rife, devas- economic system that does not protect tating struggling communities further. the fossil fuel industry – a new system

Throughout the pandemic, govern- that can deliver economic prosperity ments in the Sahel region have been try- while also protecting biodiversity and ing to educate the public through public reducing carbon emissions.advertisements to wash their hands and Luckily, it is not too late. We can still remain socially distant to stem the prevent deforestation, restore ruined spread of the virus. They even imposed ecosystems and manage our lands in a lockdowns and penalised individuals way that not only increase productivity who broke the new regulations. How- but also protect the lives and livelihoods ever, when floods and droughts caused of Indigenous populations. By listening by global warming engulf our region and to scientists and working together we devastate our people, they do not issue came a long way in defeating COVID-19. similar warnings or take precautions. We now need to use the lessons we They only offer their prayers and thank learned during this pandemic to tackle any donors for their help. Of course there the climate emergency.is nothing wrong with praying or hand-ing out a bag of rice to a hungry family, l Hindou Oumarou is the co-author of the Climate Letter to the leaders of Africa’s

54 countries.

ature rise caused by global warming is not kept under 1.5 degrees Celsius. If global temperatures rise just 1.5 degrees Celsius, the report said, people living in the city of Lagos in Nigeria would experi-ence heat stress for the first time, as would Abidjan on the Ivory Coast. If the rise in temperatures reach 4 degrees Celsius, Luanda in Angola and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo would also become heat stressed accord-ing to the report.

Like COVID-19, climate change is not a hidden threat. Thanks to the efforts of scientists and environmental activists across the world, the international com-munity is aware that if it does not take swift action, climate change will devas-tate populations and economies across the world. This is why 194 states and the European Union have signed and rati-fied the Paris Agreement on climate change.

While political leaders and policy makers may need scientific reports and briefings to comprehend the gravity of the looming threat, for rural communi-ties and Indigenous Peoples in Africa and across the world, and for many of my fellow Chadians, the risks are far from theoretical. Without needing to read academic studies and examining climate models, every farmer and herder in Africa knows the bottom line: the weather is changing and it is changing fast.

In my country, Chad, more than half of the people are impacted by floods, droughts and extreme heat. In the Sahel, the rich and the poor, the young and the old, people living in cities and rural com-munities are all experiencing the conse-quences of climate change directly.

Much has been said of the economic hardships experienced due to the tempo-rary border closures brought on by COVID-19, especially in landlocked coun-tries like mine. For nomadic pastoralists in the Sahel, who routinely need to cross the border, however, these closures only brought some minor additional chal-lenges. In the last few months, the Sahel region has seen some of the worst floods in recent history. The borders were shut and lives were put on hold not by any government, but raging flood waters. According to the UNHCR, the UN Refu-gee Agency, 700,000 people have been displaced and otherwise affected by this year’s floods.

Just like COVID-19, climate change is destroying lives and ruining liveli-hoods on a daily bases across the world. But the media is not giving the same attention to this crisis. While you can find the daily coronavirus death toll or infection rate in any given African coun-try with a simple Google search, getting

s Without needing to read academic studies and examining climate models, every farmer and herder in Africa knows the bottom line: the weather is changingand it is changing fast, writes Ibrahim.

By Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim@hindououmar

pandemic, governmentsin the Sahel region havebeen trying to educatethe public throughpublic advertisements towash their hands andremain socially distantto stem the spread of thevirus. They evenimposed lockdowns andpenalised individualswho broke the newregulations

Throughout the

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