Variable AveragesAverages of independent variables for each alternative. Alternative-specific constants, if added, are set to zero by definition.

Variables / Alternatives Price Energy Loss Warranty Spare Parts

ABB 4.636 4.886 5.705 5.250 5.239 5.364GE 4.511 4.966 5.818 5.398 5.455 5.250Westinghouse 4.705 5.045 5.750 5.159 5.114 5.216Edison 4.193 4.466 5.364 5.114 4.784 5.000

Variable Averages for Chosen AlternativesAverages of independent variables for each alternative where that alternative was the chosen alternative. Alternative-specific constants, if added, are set to zero by definition.

Variables / Alternatives Price Energy Loss Warranty Spare Parts

ABB 5.167 5.333 6.389 6.222 5.722 5.333GE 5.000 5.348 5.739 5.913 5.652 5.696Westinghouse 5.423 5.654 6.000 5.769 5.423 5.615

Edison 5.238 5.429 6.190 6.238 5.762 5.810

Confusion Matrix on Estimation SampleComparison of observed choices and predicted choices (based on MNL analysis).High values in the diagonal of the confusion matrix (in bold), compared to the non-diagonal values, indicate high convergence between observations and predictions.Analysis has been performed on the estimation dataset, and measures the goodness-of-fit of the model.

ABB GE Edison

ABB 13 3 0 1GE 1 19 1 1Westinghouse 4 0 23 0Edison 0 1 2 19

Maintenance

Ease of Install

Maintenance

Ease of Install

Observed / Predicted Choice

Westinghouse

Averages of independent variables for each alternative. Alternative-specific constants, if added, are set to zero by definition.

Prob Solver Quality

5.898 4.8416.080 4.7395.920 4.9325.534 4.432

Averages of independent variables for each alternative where that alternative was the chosen alternative. Alternative-specific constants, if added, are set to zero by definition.

Prob Solver Quality

6.500 5.1116.261 4.9136.538 5.500

6.429 5.619 Price Warranty

ABB 4.636 4.886 5.705 5.250 5.239ABB 5.167 5.333 6.389 6.222 5.722

High values in the diagonal of the confusion matrix (in bold), compared to the non-diagonal values, indicate high convergence between observations and predictions.Analysis has been performed on the estimation dataset, and measures the goodness-of-fit of the model.

Variables /

Alternatives

Energy Loss

Maintenance

Spare Parts

• Which variables are the key drivers of choice in this market? • Based on your analyses, on which firms would you focus your efforts? Why?

Quality

5.364 5.898 4.8415.333 6.500 5.111

Ease of Install

Prob Solver

• Which variables are the key drivers of choice in this market? • Based on your analyses, on which firms would you focus your efforts? Why?

Coefficient Estimates [segment 1]Coefficient estimates of the Choice model. Coefficients in bold are statistically significant.

t-statistic Variable

Price 2.180581 0.586578 3.717459 Energy LossEnergy Loss 2.655609 0.673706 3.941794 QualityMaintenance 0.593692 0.437028 1.358475 PriceWarranty 1.140702 0.330995 3.446286 Prob SolverSpare Parts -0.13262 0.21757 -0.609552 WarrantyEase of Install 0.520023 0.172875 3.00808 Ease of InstallProb Solver 2.03218 0.549676 3.697052Quality 2.639412 0.687749 3.837753Const-1 -0.123791 0.678549 -0.182436Const-2 -0.671217 0.71941 -0.933011Const-3 -0.687235 0.715046 -0.961106Baseline n/a n/a

Elasticities [segment 1]Elasticities of coefficients.

Elasticities of Price ABB GE Edison

ABB 3.634615 -1.161307 -1.022971 -0.576942GE -1.471748 1.875311 -0.259524 -0.471099Westinghouse -1.473241 -0.369128 1.823584 -0.590709Edison -0.652087 -0.425574 -0.463776 1.599235

ABB GE Edison

ABB 4.643836 -1.516863 -1.287844 -0.724631GE -1.940657 2.440147 -0.39206 -0.523714Westinghouse -1.857529 -0.444567 2.298155 -0.76626Edison -0.772327 -0.521134 -0.588048 1.960819

ABB GE Edison

ABB 1.132833 -0.362272 -0.318883 -0.179418GE -0.445728 0.597829 -0.10095 -0.147726Westinghouse -0.468537 -0.108809 0.561179 -0.174017Edison -0.2054 -0.124377 -0.13592 0.480562

Elasticities of Warranty ABB GE Edison

ABB 2.073024 -0.67456 -0.601023 -0.293951GE -0.779646 1.066372 -0.185773 -0.269658

Variables / Coefficient estimates

Coefficient

estimatesStandard deviation

Westinghouse

Elasticities of Energy Loss

Westinghouse

Elasticities of Maintenance

Westinghouse

Westinghouse

Westinghouse -0.927722 -0.174626 1.088692 -0.361457Edison -0.380168 -0.224752 -0.291344 0.932726

ABB GE Edison

ABB -0.220186 0.074727 0.062836 0.02909GE 0.090934 -0.12362 0.022268 0.029881Westinghouse 0.093648 0.022186 -0.11401 0.036587Edison 0.037089 0.025259 0.030492 -0.097207

ABB GE Edison

ABB 0.858944 -0.27659 -0.25022 -0.12351GE -0.405316 0.515533 -0.084774 -0.11226Westinghouse -0.334918 -0.072745 0.412441 -0.143896Edison -0.185944 -0.119797 -0.111162 0.428216

ABB GE Edison

ABB 4.098007 -1.298964 -1.180654 -0.628141GE -1.678816 2.261481 -0.37245 -0.576746Westinghouse -1.675715 -0.390501 2.014523 -0.630152Edison -0.695306 -0.456325 -0.494636 1.708167

Elasticities of Quality ABB GE Edison

ABB 4.317409 -1.284261 -1.30575 -0.677423GE -1.785732 2.333492 -0.390352 -0.541808Westinghouse -1.820957 -0.442266 2.267353 -0.761992Edison -0.816621 -0.523535 -0.591682 2.005915

Elasticities of Spare Parts

Westinghouse

Elasticities of Ease of Install

Westinghouse

Elasticities of Prob Solver

Westinghouse

Westinghouse

2.65560937272.63941187362.18058112342.03218007221.14070215230.5200225039

ABB GE Edison

Energy Loss 4.643836 -1.516863 -1.287844 -0.724631Quality 4.317409 -1.284261 -1.30575 -0.677423Price 3.634615 -1.161307 -1.022971 -0.576942Prob Solver 4.098007 -1.298964 -1.180654 -0.628141

Coefficient estimates

Westinghouse

Estimation Sample DetailsChoice probabilities, predicted and observed choices, segment membership probabilities and predicted segment for the sample used to estimate the model.

Customer 13 0.638 0.000 0.362 0.000 1 0 0Customer 16 0.556 0.167 0.203 0.073 1 0 0Customer 86 0.611 0.380 0.000 0.009 1 0 0Customer 3 0.747 0.253 0.000 0.000 1 0 0Customer 57 0.723 0.276 0.001 0.000 1 0 0Customer 69 0.785 0.215 0.000 0.000 1 0 0Customer 1 0.153 0.823 0.024 0.000 0 1 0Customer 2 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.974 0 0 0Customer 5 0.020 0.000 0.980 0.000 0 0 1Customer 6 0.000 0.968 0.031 0.000 0 1 0Customer 8 0.000 0.564 0.000 0.436 0 1 0Customer 9 0.003 0.000 0.013 0.984 0 0 0Customer 10 0.060 0.940 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 11 0.222 0.050 0.727 0.000 0 0 1Customer 12 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.994 0 0 0Customer 14 0.000 0.001 0.999 0.000 0 0 1Customer 15 0.011 0.989 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 17 0.213 0.131 0.077 0.579 0 0 0Customer 18 0.005 0.000 0.995 0.000 0 0 1Customer 19 0.003 0.997 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 20 0.000 0.996 0.004 0.000 0 1 0Customer 22 0.000 0.995 0.000 0.005 0 1 0Customer 23 0.011 0.002 0.003 0.985 0 0 0Customer 25 0.035 0.000 0.964 0.000 0 0 1Customer 26 0.347 0.003 0.074 0.576 0 0 0Customer 27 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.999 0 0 0Customer 28 0.000 0.003 0.062 0.935 0 0 0Customer 29 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.998 0 0 0Customer 30 0.010 0.944 0.000 0.046 0 1 0Customer 31 0.001 0.584 0.415 0.000 0 1 0Customer 32 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0 0 1Customer 33 0.000 0.014 0.000 0.986 0 0 0Customer 34 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0 0 0Customer 35 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0 0 0Customer 37 0.225 0.192 0.575 0.009 0 0 1Customer 39 0.206 0.009 0.785 0.000 0 0 1Customer 40 0.000 0.000 0.048 0.952 0 0 0Customer 41 0.266 0.000 0.734 0.000 0 0 1

Respondents / Choice probabilities

ABB probabilit

y

GE probabilit

y

Westinghouse

probability

Edison probabilit

yPredicted

ABBPredicted

GEPredicted Westingh

ouse

Customer 43 0.008 0.000 0.992 0.000 0 0 1Customer 46 0.154 0.000 0.846 0.000 0 0 1Customer 47 0.000 0.962 0.004 0.035 0 1 0Customer 48 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0 0 1Customer 49 0.000 0.003 0.997 0.000 0 0 1Customer 50 0.197 0.794 0.009 0.000 0 1 0Customer 51 0.007 0.000 0.993 0.000 0 0 1Customer 52 0.000 0.011 0.988 0.001 0 0 1Customer 53 0.179 0.002 0.819 0.000 0 0 1Customer 55 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0 0 0Customer 56 0.013 0.001 0.986 0.000 0 0 1Customer 59 0.005 0.000 0.935 0.060 0 0 1Customer 60 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 61 0.353 0.000 0.647 0.000 0 0 1Customer 62 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0 0 1Customer 63 0.000 0.000 0.396 0.604 0 0 0Customer 64 0.001 0.843 0.001 0.156 0 1 0Customer 65 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.999 0 0 0Customer 66 0.162 0.686 0.143 0.009 0 1 0Customer 67 0.175 0.036 0.000 0.788 0 0 0Customer 68 0.068 0.932 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 70 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 71 0.021 0.000 0.979 0.000 0 0 1Customer 72 0.000 0.002 0.023 0.976 0 0 0Customer 73 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 74 0.006 0.994 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 75 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.991 0 0 0Customer 76 0.068 0.000 0.547 0.384 0 0 1Customer 77 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 0 0 1Customer 78 0.001 0.004 0.224 0.771 0 0 0Customer 79 0.000 0.001 0.999 0.000 0 0 1Customer 80 0.000 0.178 0.822 0.000 0 0 1Customer 81 0.002 0.939 0.000 0.059 0 1 0Customer 82 0.028 0.972 0.000 0.000 0 1 0Customer 83 0.253 0.000 0.747 0.000 0 0 1Customer 85 0.000 0.291 0.029 0.680 0 0 0Customer 88 0.275 0.721 0.004 0.000 0 1 0Customer 21 0.878 0.115 0.000 0.006 1 0 0Customer 24 0.903 0.001 0.096 0.000 1 0 0Customer 38 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1 0 0Customer 42 0.987 0.012 0.000 0.000 1 0 0Customer 44 0.934 0.000 0.066 0.000 1 0 0Customer 45 0.830 0.000 0.000 0.170 1 0 0Customer 54 0.860 0.002 0.000 0.138 1 0 0Customer 58 0.914 0.000 0.086 0.000 1 0 0

Customer 87 0.977 0.004 0.018 0.000 1 0 0Customer 7 0.405 0.077 0.001 0.518 0 0 0Customer 4 0.488 0.397 0.000 0.115 1 0 0Customer 36 0.479 0.036 0.485 0.000 0 0 1Customer 84 0.517 0.483 0.000 0.000 1 0 0

Choice probabilities, predicted and observed choices, segment membership probabilities and predicted segment for the sample used to estimate the model.

StatusABB Status for GE Status for W

0 1 0 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Competetive Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 0 0 1 Lost Competetive Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 1 0 0 0 Lost Lost Competetive1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost1 0 1 0 0 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Competetive Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Lost Lost Competetive0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Competetive1 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Lost Lost Competetive

Predicted Edison

Observed ABB

Observed GE

Observed Westingh

ouseObserved

Edison

0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 1 0 0 0 Lost Competetive Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 1 0 0 0 Lost Lost Competetive0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Competetive Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Swtichable0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Loyal0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Loyal Lost0 0 0 1 0 Lost Lost Competetive1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 1 0 0 Lost Competetive Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost

0 1 0 0 0 Loyal Lost Lost1 0 0 0 1 Lost Lost Lost0 0 0 0 1 Swtichable Lost Lost0 0 0 1 0 Swtichable Lost Swtichable0 0 1 0 0 Swtichable Swtichable Lost

0

Status for ED Status ABB probability

Lost Loyal 0.8Lost Competitive 0.55Lost Switchable 0.45Lost Lost 0LostLostLostLoyalLostLostLostLoyalLostLostLoyalLostLostCompetetiveLostLostLostLostLoyalLostCompetetiveLoyalLoyalLoyalLostLostLostLoyalLoyalLoyalLostLostLoyalLost

LostLostLostLostLostLostLostLostLostLoyalLostLostLostLostLostCompetetiveLostLoyalLostCompetetiveLostLostLostLoyalLostLostLoyalLostLostCompetetiveLostLostLostLostLostCompetetiveLostLostLostLostLostLostLostLostLost

LostSwtichableLostLostLost