AAM Investment Roundtable
Reed Nuttall, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Fed Funds 2 Year 10 Year
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg
3 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Economic Contraction Fed Tightening Cycles 2Yr - 10Yr Yield
Difference Average Yield Difference = 1.06%
Inverted Curve Precedes Contractions
Source: Blackrock
5 Source: Blackrock
Reach for Return Leads to Increased Volatility Asset Allocation to
Generate 7.5% Expected Return
6
Key Market Themes
• Underweight Agency MBS • Reduce basis in BBBs • Changes in tax
rate cause reallocation to taxable sectors
5.3% 10.2% 12.7% 10.0% 34.7% 3.8% 2.6% 10.3% 9.8%
Tax Reform Effects on Municipal Market
Technicals Municipal Credit
Greg Bell, CFA,CPA
1
37% • Corporate rates reduced from 35% to
21%
Tax Reform
Retail Tax-Equivalent Yield 4.35% 4.16% (.19%)
P&C Tax-Equivalent Yield 3.59% 2.95% (.64%)
Bank Tax-Equivalent Yield 3.78% 3.11% (.67%)
Source: AAM, Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data
Demand Effects: Changes in Tax Equivalent Yields
3
Source: AAM, Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data, A- rated
spreads generated from Northeastern University pricing on
6-20-18
5yr 'AAA' Muni to 'A' Corp
5yr 'A' Muni to 'A' Corp
10yr 'AAA' Muni to 'A' Corp
10yr 'A' Muni to 'A' Corp
Tax-Exempt Yields 1.99% 2.14% 2.46% 2.76%
Retail Tax-Equivalent Yield Spread (0.05%) 0.20% 0.41% .91%
P&C Tax-Equivalent Yield Spread (1.03%) (0.85%) (0.81%)
(0.45%)
Bank Tax-Equivalent Yield Spread (0.89%) (0.78%) (0.64%)
(0.26%)
Demand Effects: Tax-Equivalent Yield Spreads to Taxables
4
Retail (Household, Mutual and Money Market Funds) $994.3 $992.3
($2)
P&C $326.9 $326.9 -
Bank $570.2 $554.3 ($15.8)
Demand Effects: Changes in Market Concentration
5
-60.00%
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
140.00%
-00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1,000.00
1,200.00
1,400.00
Date
Daily Bid List Activity (30 Day AVG) 30 Day AVG Relative to 3 yr
AVG
Source: Bloomberg
6
7
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
Source: J.P. Morgan
8
Relative Valuations Should Improve
10yr Muni/Tsy Ratio 5yr Average Ratio
9
Potential Headwinds
Scott Edwards, CFA
2
3
4
Source: Intex, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank Of America Global
Research
Prime Auto Loan ABS- 30+ days Delinquencies, Net Loss Subprime Auto
Loan ABS- 30+ days Delinquencies, Net Loss
Credit Performance- Auto Loan ABS
5
Del Amo Fashion Center, Torrance, CA Del Amo Fashion Center is a
2.5 million square feet super-regional mall located in Torrance,
California, boasting over 200 retailers, a multiplex, and multiple
restaurants. The Mall is owned and operated by Simon Property
Group.
• Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) 2.44x • Occupancy-85% •
Loan-to-Value-51%
• Major Distressed Anchors include JC Penney (December 2018 lease
expiration), Macy’s, and Sears
• Macy’s Home store replaced by Dick’s Sporting Goods and EMC
Seafood
• AMC multiplex was upgraded to add IMAX screens • Nordstrom store
was re-located and new Dave and Busters,
Marshalls to open in summer of 2018 • In talks with major grocery
and hospitality operators for vacant
spaces • Major redevelopment of $423 million being undertaken,
with
enhanced dining pads and seating, several anchor spaces improved,
and addition of multi-level parking
Source: S&P Presales, Morningstar, Servicer Reports
Retail Turnaround
6
Seritage Growth Properties is a publicly traded REIT, spun out of
Sears Holdings in 2015. They are primarily engaged in re-leasing
and redevelopment of 253 Class A multi-tenanted shopping centers,
and 28 additional properties through a joint venture with other
REITs. Since 2015, Seritage has diversified their rental income
away
from Sears. Sears’ contribution went down from 80% to 45.7%
In doing so, Seritage also was able to realize 4.1x the rent
multiple of income produced by leasing to Sears
Source: Seritage Growth Properties Website
“Sears. Where Else?”
2
1.2B cars globally to grow to 2 billion by 2040s at current
trends
90MM of annual sales to grow to more than 120MM if EMs grow at
similar rate
11 trillion miles driven could more than double in 20 years
20 trillion in auto assets being utilized no more than an hour a
day
Disruption is driven by efficiencies, infrastructure, costs, and
returns on capital
A Natural Shift Driven by Necessity
What Is A True Level 5 – AV?
3
4
Electric, self driving vehicles a must, to meet globally ambitious
emission needs and improve the urban environment
Autonomous capability will reduce the cost of driving sharply - by
improving efficiency, improving safety, and providing billions of
hours of leisure time
Shared networks will reorganize ownership and logistics of the
automotive assets to improve efficiency and reduce car
population
These developments will disrupt not just the transportation
industry, but the way adjacent industries work
Multiple Industries Impacted
Significant infrastructure build, which means revenue growth
Push to renewables, also would require new investments, rate
growth
Negatives:
Further development in battery technology/Utility scale battery
storage solution there will be little to no demand peak generation,
negative for merchant generation
Car’s battery, additional battery storage and solar panels, could
increase distributed generation capacity in sunny states
Utilities - Overall a positive for the sector
6
Source: MIT Technology Review 3/12/18
Technology - A Positive For The Sector
7
8
Positives:
Infrastructure build out, such as charging stations, communication
equipment on roads, additional utility infrastructure, will require
more materials
Negatives:
Reduced car production could impact demand for steel and
aluminum
Perceived increase demand can produce oversupply at times
Materials - Overall A Positive For The Sector
9
Positives:
Significant new revenue streams and potential to penetrate new
segments
At full adaption, margins should be superior
We could see more vertical integration, example: Tech/Auto in
future years
Negatives:
High R&D and Capex will keep the AVs and EVs unprofitable for a
while
Not all OEMs will be winners in the race to penetrate a new
market
Arguably higher utilization will reduce overall need for vehicles,
rental cars
Automotive – There Will Be Winners And Losers
10
Positives:
Accident frequency declines, but severity increases
The potential new insurance market penetration of the following
three new sub-categories:
Cyber Risk Software and Hardware Infrastructure
Negatives:
Insurance is out of the value chain of building AV cars
Reduction of traditional auto premiums
Fat-tail risk hard to quantify
Insurance - Overall A Neutral For The Sector
11
Positives:
Potential changes to CAFE standards
Demographic changes worldwide should lead to greater consumption in
EM
Negatives:
Battery costs continue to decline
EV market share continues to grow (1.3% presently)
Energy - Uncertain for the sector
12
Positives:
While loosing parking demand, airports will gain real estate and
revenue streams for access to the airport and reduce
congestion
New infrastructure investment, could mean new revenue sources for
toll roads and charging station providers.
Negatives:
Less need for parking, will negatively impact garages and street
parking concessions
Less cars on the roads and better technology integration will
reduce toll road demand
Less cars being shipped will reduce demand for ports and
rails
Infrastructure - Overall A Mixed Bag
13
Corporate Credit Investing
2
• Indicators indicate stability:
• Credit Managers Index remains above 50 (expansion) and trended
positively in 2017
• GS Financial Conditions Index at 5 year average
Capital markets are wide open
• IPO, leveraged loans (second liens), high yield, emerging
markets, private equity
Yield curve is flattening
• Fed in tightening mode
Credit cycle indicators continue to remain supportive but the UST
curve is indicating potential trouble ahead
Source: AAM, Bloomberg Barclays, Fed as of 4/30/2018
Source: Factset as of 6/19/2018
-
%
Net % of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards - C&I Loans
for Large/Medium
Businesses
Average MedianSource: AAM, Factset as of 3/31/2018
Debt Leverage at Corporations Remains Elevated
4
Source: Bloomberg, AAM (Corporate Yields calculated using Bloomberg
Barclays Corporate Index OAS plus 10 year Treasury yield multiplied
by (1-corporate tax rate); Earnings Yield is for S&P 500); as
of 6/11/18
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
10.0
Earnings yield
Higher yields, a more optimistic outlook for growth and lower tax
rates should make it less compelling for companies to increase debt
especially to repurchase equity
Source: AAM, Factset as of 3/31/2018
Credit Fundamentals Expected to Improve
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