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56

2014: Issue 433, Week: 28th - 31st JulyA Weekly Update from SMC

(For private circulation only)

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Sandeep Joon

Dinesh Joshi Vineet Sood

Shitij Gandhi Dhirender Singh Bisht

Subhranil Dey Parminder Chauhan

Ajay Lakra Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

Research Executive Sonia Bamba

REGISTERED OFFICES:

11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.

Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365

MUMBAI OFFICE:

Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link Road

Malad (West), Mumbai 400064

Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606

KOLKATA OFFICE:

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5th Floor, Kolkata-700001

Tel : 91-33-39847000 Fax No : 91-33-39847004

AHMEDABAD OFFICE :

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C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat

Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03

CHENNAI OFFICE:

Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,

Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.

Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111

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206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,

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Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536

DUBAI OFFICE:

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Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483

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Printed and Published on behalf of

Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address

11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005

Website: www.smcindiaonline.com

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Printed at: S&S MARKETING

102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)

Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: ss@sandsmarketing.in

arkets across the globe largely remained firm during the week on account

of positive economic data from China and U.S. Moreover, the news that Mthe tensions got eased between Russia and the West over the downing of a

Malaysian jetliner in Ukraine also stimulated the bulls. On the dollar front, it traded

largely higher as against most major currencies on back of positive data coming out

from US. On the contrary, the euro, continued to soften over ongoing market

sentiments that the European Central Bank has room to loosen policy if needed.

Moreover the report from Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed that China's

manufacturing activity grew at the quickest pace in eighteen months in July to 52.0

from 50.7 in June, exceeding economists' expectations. Next week, the Fed is

scheduled to release the July FOMC statement in which the Fed may upgrade the

assessment of the labor market.

Back at home, Indian stock markets remained on a firm footing on the back of

continuous buying by foreign institutional investors as they perceive the sub-par

growth is bottoming out. So far in the year 2014, foreign players have fuelled over 20

per cent rally, betting big on the economic recovery aided by reform agenda of the

Modi government. On the RBI front, it is expected that RBI will keep interest rate

intact in its upcoming monetary policy review next month as there is pressure on

inflation due to deficient rainfall in the country. In the last policy review in June, RBI

chose not to tinker with the policy rate and this was the second consecutive time

that RBI kept interest rates unchanged. However, the recent data on monsoon

showed that it is 24% above average in the week ended July 23. Additionally,

improvement in the monsoon situation for India as a whole has reduced the deficit

to nearly 36% from as high as 43% of long period average has receded concerns

pertaining to high food inflation.

On the bullion front, the recent improved economic data curbed safe haven appeal

of gold. Gold is expected to move in the range of 26900-28500 on the national bourse

(MCX). Geopolitical tensions, FOMC meeting along with inventory data are expected

to give further direction to the crude oil prices in near term. Any increase in tensions

in Israel, Iraq and Ukraine will continue to support the prices. Crude oil prices may

trade in the range of 6050-6300 in MCX and $100-105 in NYMEX. Federal Reserve

FOMC Meeting, CPI of Germany, GDP, personal consumption of US, Fed Pace of

Treasury Purchase, Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision, German

Unemployment Change, CPI of EU, PMI of China, Change in Non-farm Payrolls,

Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing and Personal Consumption Expenditure of

US, etc are few very important data and events, especially from US, which may pave

the path of commodities in time when commodities are already facing geopolitical

tensions.

From The Desk Of Editor

NEWS

DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy•India's Finance Minister, Arun Jaitely has approved 49% foreign investment

in insurance companies through the FIPB route ensuring management control in the hands of Indian promoters. The move would help insurance firms to get much needed capital from overseas partners.

•India's Finance Minister, Arun Jaitely asserted that four public sector companies, which cannot be revived would be shut down, meanwhile, he ordered the rest of them to shape up to deal with free competition in an era when state-run firms had lost monopoly rights and preference. Additionally, he pointed that government was trying to revive seven ailing PSUs via disinvestment and the joint venture route.

•The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has relaxed the ̀ 1-lakh ceiling on loans for nonagricultural purposes against pledged gold and has left it to individual banks to decide on a lending cap. RBI retained the loan-to-value ratio at 75% of the value of gold and the tenor of the loan to one year.

•Amid concerns over the increasing fuel shortage for domestic power producers, the Indian government has advised power producers to import 54 million tonnes (MT) of coal in the current fiscal to meet the shortfall.

Information Technology•TCS has entered into a new partnership with MapR Technologies, Inc.

(MapR), provider of the top-ranked distribution for Apache Hadoop, to help enterprise customers easily and rapidly capture critical big data insights. The partnership's new big data offerings will shift the IT cost curve and allow companies to strategically reimaging their business models.

•Tech Mahindra plans to significantly expand in Korea. Tech Mahindra aspires to be the largest Indian based system integrator in Korea by 2017. The company believes that localization is the key to achieve this target and plans to run as a local Korean company in partnership with a Korean conglomerate.

LogisticsTransport Corporation of India (TCI) has received an approval for raising the equity through any possible conductive routine including QIP / PE Funds etc. up to a sum not exceeding ̀ 100 crore in one or more tranches in order to fund its forthcoming capex programme.

Oil & Gas•Cairn India is reportedly planning to invest $3 billion towards the company's

three-year capex programme. This will lead to a reserve replacement ratio of 150 percent and help the company to deliver a growth of 7 to 10 percent in production over the next three years from the Rajasthan block.

Pharmaceuticals•Strides Arcolab has received an approval from the United States Food &

Drug Administration (USFDA) for Tacrolimus Capsules USP, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, and 5 mg. The US market for generic Tacrolimus is approximately $676 million, according to IMS data as on September 2013.

Capital GoodsAlstom T&D India has secured an order from Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL), for around `200 crore, to supply transformers for the upgrade and expansion of 400/220 kV grid substations across eastern India.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS•US existing home sales climbed 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted

annual rate of 5.04 million in June after jumping 5.4 percent to an upwardly revised 4.91 million in May. Economists had been expecting existing home sales to rise to 4.99 million from the 4.89 million originally reported for the previous month.

•US new home sales tumbled 8.1 percent to an annual rate of 406,000 in June from the revised May rate of 442,000. While the May rate is well below the six-year high originally reported, it still represents an 8.3 percent increase from the revised April rate of 408,000. Economists had been expecting new home sales to pull back by 5.8 percent to a rate of 475,000 in June from the 504,000 originally reported for May.

•US consumer price index rose by 0.3 percent in June after climbing by 0.4 percent in May. The increase by the index matched the consensus estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1 percent in June after rising by 0.3 percent in the previous month. Economists had expected core prices to edge up by 0.2 percent.

•Euro area consumer confidence deteriorated for a second straight month in July. The flash consumer confidence index for Eurozone fell to -8.4 from -7.5 in June. Economists had forecast the score remain unchanged. The confidence index for the EU declined by 1.2 points to -5.5.

•Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 822.2 billion yen in June. That missed forecasts for a shortfall of 642.9 billion yen following the 910.8 billion yen deficit in May. Exports were down 2.0 percent on year, missing forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent following the 2.7 percent decline in the previous month. Imports jumped 8.4 percent on year, in line with forecasts following the revised 3.5 percent contraction a month earlier (originally -3.6 percent).

EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

28-JUL-14 AXISBANK FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM RS 10/- TO RS 2/- PER SHARE

28-JUL-14 ACC INTERIM DIVIDEND30-JUL-14 CROMPGREAV FINAL DIVIDEND - RE 0.40/- PER SHARE

(PURPOSE REVISED)30-JUL-14 MAHLIFE DIVIDEND RS.6/-PER SHARE30-JUL-14 AMARAJABAT DIVIDEND - RS 3.23/- PER SHARE30-JUL-14 AMBUJACEM INTERIM DIVIDEND31-JUL-14 HEXAWARE INTERIM DIV-RS.1.60 PER SHARE31-JUL-14 DIVISLAB DIVIDEND - RS 20/- PER SHARE31-JUL-14 GODREJIND FINAL DIVIDEND - RS 1.75/- PER SHARE

MEETING DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE

28-JUL-14 VIJAYABANK RESULTS28-JUL-14 LT RESULTS28-JUL-14 HINDUNILVR RESULTS28-JUL-14 BANKBARODA RESULTS28-JUL-14 DABUR RESULTS29-JUL-14 RANBAXY RESULTS29-JUL-14 SSLT RESULTS29-JUL-14 ITC RESULTS29-JUL-14 IDFC RESULTS/OTHERS29-JUL-14 BHARTIARTL RESULTS30-JUL-14 LUPIN RESULTS30-JUL-14 DRREDDY RESULTS30-JUL-14 ARVIND RESULTS30-JUL-14 ALBK RESULTS31-JUL-14 SYNDIBANK RESULTS31-JUL-14 TECHM RESULTS31-JUL-14 MARUTI RESULTS31-JUL-14 NTPC RESULTS31-JUL-14 HCLTECH RESULTS/DIVIDEND31-JUL-14 ICICIBANK RESULTS31-JUL-14 DLF RESULTS

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name

of "Morning Mantra ".

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength

coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and

taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing

Price Trend Trend

Changed Changed

SENSEX 26272 UP 12.09.13 19317 25000 24600

S&P NIFTY 7831 UP 12.09.13 5728 7500 7330

CNX IT 10400 UP 12.06.14 9448 9750 9550

CNX BANK 15534 UP 08.03.14 11278 14800 14500

ACC 1463 UP 15.05.14 1377 1400 1380

BHARTIAIRTEL 355 UP 24.07.14 355 340 330

BHEL 236 DOWN 24.07.14 236 250 255

CIPLA 440 UP 12.06.14 416 425 415

DLF 214 UP 15.05.14 160 205 200

HINDALCO 198 UP 08.03.14 121 180 175

ICICI BANK 1506 UP 08.03.14 1134 1400 1370

INFOSYS 3382 UP 19.06.14 3312 3240 3180

ITC 356 UP 10.07.14 342 340 335

L&T 1663 UP 19.09.13 888 1650 1620

MARUTI 2499 UP 19.09.13 1480 2400 2350

NTPC 150 DOWN 17.07.14 150 157 160

ONGC 405 UP 31.10.13 294 380 370

RELIANCE 1041 DOWN 10.07.14 997 1050 1060

TATASTEEL 568 UP 27.03.14 376 525 515

S/l

4

®

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

BSE SmallcapSensex Nifty Junior

5

®

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

2.18

2.46

0.44 0.48

0.21

1.53

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

0.60

0.97 0.92

2.83

0.67

4.70

1.88

2.29

-1.15-1.43

-0.17

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

-0.10

0.90

0.49 0.45

1.31

2.93

2.23

1.07

1.74

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

-31.90-35.10

588.59

244.48

372.31

839.38

288.40

-100.00

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00

900.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII / FPI Activity MF Activity

7.046.56

6.225.55 5.44

-3.56

-2.17-1.37 -1.34

-0.96

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Hindalco Inds.

Reliance Inds.

TCS H D F C Bharti Airtel GAIL (India) Tata Power Co.

Larsen & Toubro

O N G C Maruti Suzuki

7.266.83 6.58 6.31

5.48

-6.62

-3.45 -3.35 -3.21-2.65

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

Hindalco Inds.

Asian Paints Reliance Inds.

TCS Bank of Baroda

Cairn India I D F C GAIL (India) DLF UltraTech Cem.

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale final stages. Moreover, the company also plans to

•Dishman Pharmaceuticals is engaged in the pay off a bank debt of ̀ 100 crore from proceeds of

manufacturing of active pharmaceutical sale of its Shanghai facility.

ingredients (APIs) intermediates. The Company •On the global front, the company's Chinese facility

operates in two segments: Contract Research And is expected to break-even in FY'15. The profit

Contract Manufacturing (CRAMS), and bulk drugs, margin of Dishman Netherlands were seen under

intermediates, quats and specialty chemicals. pressure but it is expected to improve going forward.

•The Company's capex is expected to be `60-70 Valuation

crore for the FY'15. The Company has no major With strong R&D experience and effective

Capex planned for next two years. The Company relationship developed with MNC Customers, the

targets revenues to grow by 10-15% for the FY'15. company's order book is expanding consistently

There is decent head room for the margins reflecting its capacity. The company has no major

expansion going forward. On Consolidated basis, it capex planned for the next two years and the

expects ̀ 240-250 crore from Vitamin–D business for incremental cash flow is to be used for retiring the

the FY'15 with 2-3% improvement in EBIDTA debt on the books. We expect the stock to see a price

margins. target of ̀ 190 in one year time frame on a current P/E

•The Company has eight-multi purpose production of 11.08x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 17.17.

units at Bavla. The Bavla facility capacity

utilization is 60-65%.

•The order for the benzothonium chloride

decreased in FY'14 but the company expects the

same to grow well in the FY15. The order book for

FY'15 stand at 40-50 tonnes and is expected to go

up to 100-150 tonnes.

•The company has orders worth of USD 5 million in

hand for Hypo Unit and Carbogemics budget is CHF

96 million in hand for the FY'15.

•In a bid to reduce its over `800 crore debt, it is

planning to sell its 175 hectares land in Gujarat to

Nirma for about ̀ 650 crore. Talks with Nirma are in

` in cr

Actual Estimate

FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16

Revenue 1373.20 1552.40 1720.30EBITDA 332.30 368.10 412.10EBIT 223.80 254.60 290.20Pre-tax Profit 156.40 181.10 219.60Net Profit 109.30 138.70 170.00EPS 13.54 17.17 21.00BVPS 145.21 161.23 178.56ROE 9.90 9.60 11.10

Face Value (`) 2.00

52 Week High/Low 159.80/37.05

M.Cap (`Cr.) 1207.68

EPS (`) 13.54

P/E Ratio (times) 11.05

P/B Ratio (times) 1.03

Dividend Yield (%) 0.80

Stock Exchange BSE

DISHMAN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED CMP: 149.65 Upside: 27%Target Price: 190

P/E Chart

Face Value (`) 1.00

52 Week High/Low 575.90/393.40

M.Cap (`Cr.) 12121.80

EPS (`) 16.79

P/E Ratio (times) 31.81

P/B Ratio (times) 13.01

Dividend Yield (%) 1.31

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

Actual Estimate

FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16

Revenue 1820.80 2123.60 2462.00

EBITDA 502.30 494.10 580.70

EBIT 406.10 469.40 556.20

Pre-tax Profit 466.00 537.30 640.40

Net Profit 411.40 439.40 522.10

EPS 18.12 19.39 23.01

BVPS 41.06 54.51 67.58

ROE 48.20 41.20 39.90

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale Mumbai-based Royal Hygiene Care. For 2013-14, •Emami Limited is engaged in the business of sales of the sanitary napkin brand stood at approx

manufacturing and marketing personal care, `30 crore. Just before the acquisition of She healthcare and beauty products. The Company's Comfort, the company had launched 'He', a range portfolio comprises more than 300 products. of deodorants. It is expected the company will be

•The company plans 7-8 new product launches in extended into the men's hair care and skin care FY15 which are likely to contribute 4% - 5% of the segments, too.total sales in FY15. New product launches will be •On the global front, its International business has backed by higher Advertising and Promotion (A&P). performed well with aggressive growth in Gulf The management guided for 16-17% revenue Cooperation Council (GCC) and South Asian growth for FY15. Of this, 4% would comprise price Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) growth and rest would come from volume. countries.

•The Company is taking up innovation, new Valuationlaunches and extensions very aggressively. In line Company's brands and their extensions are expected with the strategy, the company launched Zandu to continue to do well along with international Vigorex (For Energy and Vitality), Boroplus Anti business. The company has strengthened market Pollution Face Wash and Fair and Handsome share in key categories, conserved resources and Instant Fairness Face wash™ - the first brand delivered good profits. We expect the stock to see a extension of the Male Grooming Brand Fair and price target of `620 in one year time frame on a Handsome – in the last 2 quarters. Recently, a new target P/E of 32x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 19.39.Brand Emami 7 Oils in One damage control hair oil has also been launched.

•The company plans to launch Zandu Nityam tablets in the constipation category selectively and graduate it into a national brand campaigns. The Zandu portfolio contributed `400 crore and accounted for 22 per cent in Emami's total turnover.

•The Company's International Business grew by 9% to ̀ 67.8 crore. The company expects it to grow by 25%+ in FY15.

•Recently, the approx `1821crore personal and healthcare major wrapped up the acquisition of 'She Comfort', a sanitary napkin brand, from

P/E Chart

EMAMI LIMITED CMP: 534.00 Upside: 16%Target Price: 620

VALUE PARAMETERS

10.013.82

6.91

61.45

17.81

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

17.031.33

4.9

72.74

4.01 Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

6

®

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at ̀ 199.50 on 25thJuly 2014. It made a 52-week low at ̀ 142.70

on 22nd August 2013 and a 52-week high at `200.30 on 25th JULY 2014.The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 136.23

We can witness from the weekly charts that stock is continuously trading in

higher highs and higher lows, which is considered to be a bullish pattern. Last

traded week, stock ended over 3% gains conclusively and closed above the

breakout of resistance line and also managed to close at week high, which

indicates that buying is more aggressive at the current levels. So, one can buy in

range of 196-197 levels for the upside target of 215-220 levels with closing below

SL of 188.

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at ̀ 662 on 25thJuly 2014. It made a 52-week low at ̀ 537.20 on

14th January 2014 and a 52-week high at ̀ 685 on 19th September 2013. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 480.43

After finding support around 550 levels, stock started moving higher and

entered into its earlier resistance zone of 640-650 levels in the short span of

time. Then after, it consolidated in the range of 615-645 levels for six week with

emergence of bull flag pattern on the weekly chart. Last traded week, stock

went up by over 6% and subsequently gave the pattern breakout with decent

volume. So, one can buy in the range of 660-661 levels for the upside target of

690-700 levels with closing below SL of 645.

The stock closed at 116.85 on 25thJuly 2014. It made a 52-week low at 38.90

on 06th August 2013 and a 52-week high of `118.80 on 04th July 2014. The 200

days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is

currently at ̀ 79.98

It is apparent from the weekly chart that stock has rebounded sharply from

yearly low and gave the breakout of inverted Head and Shoulder pattern. Due to

this, stock registered decent gains and entered into three digits with short span

of time. Last traded week, stock has got strength and formed long bullish

marubozu candle stick pattern on weekly chart. So, one can buy in the range of

112-114 levels for the upside target of 130-135 levels with closing below SL of 105.

` `

DABUR

VIPIND

HINDUNILVR

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

Markets remained volatile, throughout the week. Hereafter, the range of 7700-7850 will remain crucial for current expiry and the move is expected to remain

volatile. If Nifty slips below the 7700 mark, it could slide to 7600 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the contrary, the index may face stiff resistance at

7850-7900 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest increased last week and closed at 1.14 levels the options open interest concentration continued to be at the

8000-strike call with the highest open interest of above 80 lakh shares. Among the put options, the 7700-strike has the highest open interest of above 60 lakh

shares. Nifty put options' Implied Volatility (IV) closed at 13.34%, while Nifty call options' IV closed at 13.07%. Nifty VIX closed at 14.22%. It is currently trading

below its 20-day EMA and is expected to remain sideways. It has a strong resistance around 16 levels Short term indicators are indicating sideways move for the

current expiry. The Nifty is expected to expire in a broad range of 7700-8000 levels, with an intermediary support at around 7740 levels.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

®

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

ALBK (JUL FUTURE)

Buy: Above `122

Target: `127

Stop loss: `120

TATAMOTOS

Buy JUL 450. PUT 3.40

Lot size: 1000

BEP: 446.60

Max. Profit: Unlimited

Max. Loss: 3400.00 (3.40*1000)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

BAJAJ-AUTO

Buy JUL 2100. CALL 23.00

Sell JUL 2150. CALL 7.00

Lot size: 125

BEP: 2116.00

Max. Profit: 4250.00 (34.00*125)

Max. Loss: 2000.00 ( 16.00*125)

SBIN

Buy JUL 2520. CALL 21.00

Sell JUL 2560. CALL 11.00

Lot size: 125

BEP: 2530.00

Max. Profit: 3750.00 (30.00*125)

Max. Loss: 1250.00 (10.00 *125)

BULLISH STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

PETRONET (JUL FUTURE)

Buy: Above `186

Target: `194

Stop loss: `183

BHEL (JUL FUTURE)

Sell: `221

Target: `215

Stop loss: `224

Below

BEARISH STRATEGY

FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

-375.16

294.99

1200.60

52.38

-81.47

-600.00

-400.00

-200.00

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

18-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul

933.65

166.10

1184.69

1952.04

1331.04

451.43273.04

1650.98

677.19

-118.49-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

11-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

10-Jul 11-Jul 14-Jul 15-Jul 16-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul

809500

117750 232600568500

1383550

2609700

3959750

4704300

5702900

8034150

2265900

2770600

3337550

3863600

4701400

54652505645950

7214950

4765250

789250532100

245500

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

7000 7200 7300 7400 7500 7600 7700 7800 7900 8000 8100

Call Put

8

9

BHARTIARTL 11890000 10223000 -14.02 0.33 0.59 0.26 26.32 32.64 6.32

DLF 31292000 29558000 -5.54 0.48 0.42 -0.06 47.14 40.25 -6.89

HINDALCO 30106000 23190000 -22.97 0.97 1.47 0.50 50.46 40.66 -9.80

HINDUNILVR 5134000 5431000 5.78 0.34 0.47 0.13 26.24 24.73 -1.51

ICICIBANK 10584750 10170000 -3.92 0.50 0.55 0.05 36.16 29.11 -7.05

IDEA 29604000 20758000 -29.88 0.33 0.57 0.25 35.79 31.65 -4.14

INFY 2900125 2869375 -1.06 0.53 0.69 0.16 26.75 23.38 -3.37

ITC 23827000 22321000 -6.32 1.39 1.63 0.23 23.39 22.75 -0.64

JPASSOCIAT 129408000 127464000 -1.50 0.41 0.34 -0.08 57.62 61.68 4.06

NTPC 58938000 53570000 -9.11 0.26 0.26 0.00 37.29 32.41 -4.88

ONGC 22340000 21547000 -3.55 0.35 0.35 0.00 43.40 40.70 -2.70

RANBAXY 6626000 5953000 -10.16 0.79 0.83 0.04 29.18 27.55 -1.63

RCOM 52300000 41998000 -19.70 0.25 0.30 0.05 38.90 37.08 -1.82

RELIANCE 23380250 17691000 -24.33 0.37 0.45 0.09 25.74 25.09 -0.65

NIFTY 15023000 16451000 9.51 0.97 1.14 0.16 13.57 13.07 -0.50

SAIL 55424000 51676000 -6.76 0.32 0.37 0.05 44.13 38.07 -6.06

SBIN 4311500 4220000 -2.12 0.64 0.61 -0.03 36.89 34.86 -2.03

TATASTEEL 16858000 15646000 -7.19 0.92 0.93 0.01 38.86 32.55 -6.31

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

# SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

#

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to

1.14 from 0.97. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has decreased to13.07% from 13.57%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from 6.32% to -9.8%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has increased by 9.51% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -29.88% to 9.51%. IDEA has the

maximum decrease in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 7623.70 High 7839.00

Low 7587.80 Close 7833.75

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®# 30 Days ATM IV

12

15

18

21

24

27

7400

7500

7600

7700

7800

18-Jul 21-Jul 22-Jul 23-Jul 24-Jul

Nifty Close IV

Coriander futures (Aug) may witness a steep fall towards 11350 levels, breaching 11600 levels on account of profit booking from higher levels & lack of any fresh cues of demand from the spot markets. The Rajasthan Khadya Padarth Vyapar Sangh (RKPVS) claimed that masala traders in 247 mandis in the state kept their shops shut as a mark of protest against imposing 5% VAT. The RKPVS would organize a general body meeting on July 31, in which it would take a decision on their protest, if the government does not fulfill their demand. Turmeric futures (Aug) is likely to trade with a bearish bias & may test 6300-6250 levels. The prices of the yellow spices are decreasing in the spot markets as the quality of arrivals are not up to the mark. Moreover, the farmers of Erode are bringing large quantities for selling their produce since water from the Kalingarayan canal is now being released for irrigation, and they have started their agricultural work and are in need of money. Cardamom futures (Aug) may continue to consolidate in the range of 915-950 levels. In the current scenario, the downside may remain limited supported by thin arrivals from the first round of harvesting. On the demand side, the exporters are buying the exportable quality material that has arrived in the market. Jeera futures (Aug) would possibly trade with a downside bias on account of waning demand at the spot markets & remain below 11700 levels on the national bourse. The comfortable supply of around 20 – 25 lakh bags all over India and in Unjha at around 15 lakh bags may add to the bearish sentiments.

SPICES

Bullion counter may tread on a volatile path on mixed fundamentals in the near term. On the one hand tension in the Middle East and Ukraine are supporting its prices while on the other hand decline in Chinese physical demand and rise in the greenback capped the upside. Recently improved economic data curbed safe haven appeal of gold. Last week Chinese manufacturing (PMI) data rose to an 18-month high in July and U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest since February 2006. On the domestic bourses movement of the local currency rupee will impact the bullion counter, which can move in the range of 59.50-61 Gold may move in the range of 26900-28500 in MCX. White metal silver can hover in the range of 42500-45000. Middle East tensions will continue to assist the price to move higher. In the Middle East, the situation remained tense with Israel pounding targets across the Gaza Strip, saying no ceasefire was near as top U.S. and United Nations diplomats pursued talks on halting the fighting that has claimed more than 600 lives. Meanwhile SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, holdings rose 1.5 tonnes to 804.84 tonnes on safe-haven demand. Recently, China Gold Association reported a 19% drop in Chinese gold demand during the January to June period. Chinese demand for gold bars fell 62% during the January to June period, while gold coin demand dropped 44%. Last year, China became the world's top gold consumer and producer, edging out India for the first time.

BULLIONS

10

®

Good economic data from China and US will continue to support the prices of base metals in the near term. Recently, China preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index from HSBC Holdings PLC and Markit Economics stood at 52, compared with the final reading of 50.7 in June. Red metal, copper can trade in the range of 420-445. Global supply will exceed demand by 353,000 tonnes in 2014 and by 492,000 tonnes in 2015, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chinese exports of refined copper rose to the highest since March last year with a very small base. Exports rose as probe into warehousing at Qingdao Port undermines the appeal of holding inventories of the metal tied to financing. Battery metal lead can move in the range of 131-139 in MCX. Zinc can hover in the range of 140-150. Nickel prices may hover in the range of 1100-1200 in MCX. Indonesia's Mr. Widodo won as a president of Indonesia can be bearish for nickel prices because he can ease the export restrictions imposed earlier. China nickel Imports actually fell by 11 percent to 76,000 tonnes in the first half of this year, while net imports fell even harder to just 31,000 tonnes, the lowest level in the first half of any year since 2004. Aluminum can move in the range of 117-122. Recently Bank of America stated that aluminum demand will exceed supply by 136,000 MT in 2014, its first deficit in last 5-7 years. China's net imports of primary aluminium jumped 267 percent in the first half of 2014.

BASE METALS

Geopolitical tensions along with inventory data is expected to give further direction to the crude oil prices in the near term. Meanwhile, any increase in tensions in Israel, Iraq and Ukraine will continue to support the prices. Crude oil prices may trade in the range of 6050-6300 in MCX and $100-105 on NYMEX. According to the Energy Information Administration, “Gasoline inventories climbed to the highest level since March while crude supplies dropped for a fourth week”. Geopolitical tensions globally have kept crude oil price on volatile path. Recently Malaysian Air Flight 17 was shot down over rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 passengers and crew and deepening the worst crisis between the West and Russia since the end of the Cold War. Russia is the world's biggest energy exporter. The Obama administration on July 16 imposed sanctions on Russian companies to punish the country over Ukraine, limiting their access to U.S. equity and debt markets. Natural gas prices may witness some lower level buying as it can move in the range of 225-245 in MCX. The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended July 18 rose by 90 billion cubic feet, below expectations for an increase of 96 billion cubic feet. In the 8-14 day weather outlook, Nat Gas Weather projects a neutral trend for the US, with the Midwest and Northeast experiencing several degrees of cooling, with the cool blasts entering from Canada.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Soybean futures (Oct) is expected to witness another round of consolidation in the range of 3630-3840 levels. The downside may remain capped as the fundamentals depict that the progress of sowing as on 17th July, 2014 is lower by 83.76 lakh ha as compared to corresponding period of Kharif 2013. It is reported that the farmers are facing problem in getting good quality beans for seeding which are expensive in the market this season. There is a scarcity of good quality beans much needed for planting this season. On the demand side, the diverted demand of international buyers towards South-America due to their competitive meal prices continues to remain a negative factor for the meal of Indian origin. CPO futures (Aug) may trade in the range of 515-530 levels due to lack of sufficient cues from its price taker market ahead of the long weekend. The Malaysian markets will be closed on Monday and Tuesday for the Muslim Eid- UL-Fitr holiday. The Malaysian palm oil futures are being dragged down by fears of abundant global oilseed supplies, and as estimates for an uptick in palm oil output this month. The Malaysian Palm Oil Association forecast that the palm oil output may rise 16.3% during the period July 1-20 compared to a month ago. Mustard futures (Aug) is likely to trade in the range of 3550-3700 levels. The market participants are inactive in the spot markets of Rajasthan owing to strike against VAT hike in different commodities, which has affected the demand-supply chain. Refined soy oil futures (Aug) would possibly trade with an upside bias taking support above 670 levels. There are expectations that demand for edible oils will increase due to the festival demand.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

OTHER COMMODITIES

Wheat futures (Aug) is likely to trade with a bearish bias & fall towards 1570 levels. In the news, the government has approved the sale of 10 million tonnes of wheat from FCI stock in the open market in order to boost domestic supply and check prices. The reserve price under OMSS has been fixed at Rs 1,500 per quintal plus freight charges for old crop and 5% premium for new crop. As of July 1, the FCI had a wheat stock of 40 million tonnes, against the required quantity of about 20 million tonnes. The bearish sentiments may prevail over guar complex for the fifth consecutive week on account of selling pressure due to improvement in new crop sowing in major sowing areas of Rajasthan along with strong carryover stocks of around 150 lakh tonnes in local mandies. The favorable rainfall in major guarseed producing states of Rajasthan such as Nagaur, Bikaner and Jodhpur will encourage the sowing of new guarseed crops. The latest crop data released by the Rajasthan Agri Board stated that around 7.80 lakh hectares of guarseed sowing has been completed in the state so far, almost same from the previous year. Sugar futures (Aug) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3050-3120 levels. At the spot market, the Millers are selling continuously while the Vashi market carries ample stocks of 115-120 truckloads. The downside in Kapas futures (Apr '15) is likely to get extended towards 860 levels on reports that production is set to climb to an all-time high and expand as much as 2.6% to 40 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds) each in the year starting Oct. 1.

11

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COMMODITY

ALUMINIUM MCX (JULY) contract closed at `121.00 on 24th July '14. The contract made its high of

`122.80 on 22nd July '14 and a low of ̀ 111.45 on 2nd July '14. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the commodity is currently at ̀ 118. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 68. One can buy in the

range 120-119 with the stop loss of ̀ 117.50 for a target of ̀ 124.

NATURAL GAS MCX (AUGUST) contract closed at 232.90 on 24th July '14. The contract made its high of

`278.40 on 26th June'14 and a low of ̀ 227.90 on 24th July '14. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of

the Commodity is currently at ̀ 245.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 27. One can buy in the

range 232-230 with the stop loss of ̀ 226 for a target of ̀ 242.

`

RMSEED NCDEX (AUGUST) contract closed at 3623.00 on 24th July '14. The contract made its high of

`3665.00 on 21st July '14 and a low of ̀ 3431.00 on 2nd June '14. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average

of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 3601.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56. One can buy in the

range 3600-3580 with the stop loss of ̀ 3560 for a target of ̀ 3675.

`

®

ALUMINIUM MCX (JULY)

NATURAL GAS MCX (AUGUST)

RMSEED NCDEX (AUGUST)

NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).

2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN OCT 3732.00 05.06.14 DOWN 4401.00 - 3950.00 4150.00

NCDEX JEERA AUG 11395.00 22.05.14 UP 11125.00 11000.00 - 10500.00

NCDEX CHANA AUG 2836.00 15.05.14 DOWN 3233.00 - 3000.00 3100.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS AUG 3623.00 06.03.14 UP 3564.00 3400.00 - 3300.00

MCX MENTHA OIL AUG 725.50 29.05.14 SIDEWAYS

MCX CARDAMOM AUG 935.00 29.05.14 DOWN 907.60 - 960.00 980.00

MCX SILVER SEP 43786.00 19.06.14 UP 44311.00 43000.00 - 42000.00

MCX GOLD AUG 27626.00 19.06.14 UP 27611.00 27500.00 - 27000.00

MCX COPPER AUG 435.45 26.06.14 UP 424.95 425.00 - 415.00

MCX LEAD AUG 134.65 24.07.14 UP 134.65 130.00 - 126.00

MCX ZINC AUG 143.55 23.04.14 UP 126.45 138.00 - 134.00

MCX NICKEL AUG 1154.30 03.07.14 UP 1181.80 1120.00 - 1080.00

MCX ALUMINUM AUG 121.65 17.07.14 UP 119.65 117.00 - 114.00

MCX CRUDE OIL AUG 6158.00 12.06.14 UP 6290.00 6155.00 - 6150.00

MCX NATURAL GAS AUG 232.90 10.07.14 DOWN 249.10 - 245.00 260.00

TREND SHEET

Closing as on 24.07.14

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

In the week gone by, CRB, which represents the performance of entire commodities space, took

upturn, but the upside was limited. Upturn in industrial metals prices lifted up the sentiments of

the index CRB. Though, bullion counter performed badly due to strengthening dollar index and

lower import data. The dollar index held close to a six-week peak as against a basket of currencies

as the euro edged down to touch a fresh 2014 low on the diverging interest rate outlook for the

U.S. and euro zone. China Gold Association showed that gold consumption in the country, which

surpassed India as the largest user last year, fell 19% in the first half of 2014. In Indian market, it

traded below the level of 28000 and in COMEX it traded below $1300. Silver followed the

footsteps of gold and nosedived. With rise in economic performance, tracking strong

performance of equity market, base metals also showed their metals and closed up. Aluminum

and zinc performed better among all. Zinc and aluminium were holding near recent highs after a

flurry of interest from investors on shortages issue. Rise in aluminium prices at futures trade was

mostly attributed to a firming trend in the global markets where it reached a 16-month high amid

bets that demand will outstrip supply. In energy counter crude traded flattish but natural gas fell

like nine pin. Crude prices declined after inventories of gasoline expanded for a third week in the

U.S., the world's largest oil consumer. Furthermore moderate temperature eroded the appeal of

natural gas and exerted selling pressure. In agri counter, guar futures fell due to a pick-up in rains and on weak demand for guar gum from

exporters. Chana, futures fell on weak demand from millers and higher-than-expected supplies in

the spot market. Spices also traded weak except chilli. Turmeric futures closed weaker due to

subdued overseas and local demand amid higher carry-forward stocks. Favorable weather

conditions also pummeled prices for grains and beans in the recent weeks. Soyabean prices hit

their lowest settlement price since October 2010 last week. Both wheat and corn were trading at

their lowest prices since July 2010. The fall in mentha futures prices was mostly due to profit-

booking by speculators after recent gains and sluggish demand in spot markets from

pharmaceutical units. Harvesting is over in all major growing regions of U.P, Bihar and Punjab.

Castor traded weak but better rainfall in main growing belt is expected to enhance sowing

activities in Rajasthan, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 17.07.14 24.07.14 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.

BARLEY MT 7032 6097 -935CASTOR SEED MT 151608 145451 -6157CHANA MT 122336 122119 -217CORIANDER MT 590 610 20COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 37908 33248 -4660GUARGUM MT 8746 8541 -205GUARSEED MT 7492 7844 352JEERA MT 974 710 -264MAIZE MT 24636 26219 1583RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 72741 67316 -5425SOYABEAN MT 37938 21739 -16199SUGAR MT 23486 22264 -1222TURMERIC MT 705 950 245WHEAT MT 8207 8207 0

COMMODITY UNIT 10.07.14 24.07.14 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 11.50 11.50 0.00

COTTON BALES 67500.00 56100.00 -11400.00

KAPASIA KHALLI MT 0.00 0.00 0.00

GOLD KGS 45.00 31.00 -14.00

GOLD MINI KGS 6.60 6.50 -0.10

GOLD GUINEA KGS 8.07 8.07 0.00

MENTHA OIL KGS 2785039.50 3425048.20 640008.70

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 6983.06 6983.06 0.00

•China will launch its first iron ore and thermal coal swap contracts on Aug. 4.

•Global crude steel production rose 3.1 percent in June from a year ago.

•FMC has given the approval to NCDEX for Forward contracts viz. Non-transferable Specific Delivery (NTSD) and Transferable Specific Delivery (TSD) in Sugar and Maize.

•FMC has withdrawn Additional Margin of 5% levied on long and short side of all Mentha Oil running and yet to be launched contracts with immediate effect.

•The government has set the target for foodgrains production at 261 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year, lower than the last year's record output.

•The Center has approved a capacity of 203.76 lakh MT for construction in 19 states, under the Private Entrepreneur Guarantee (PEG) scheme to ensure increased foodgrains storage capacity. Out of this 120.30 lakh MT has been completed. - Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution

•Government has approved Cotton Development Programme as a Sub-scheme under the National Food Security Mission (NFSM) by adopting cropping system approach, during the current year i.e. 2014-15.

•The Spices Board of India has approved establishment of a mini spice park for ginger at Itanagar in collaboration with the state government of Arunachal Pradesh.

•India's biotech regulator GEAC has given green signal for the import of Genetically Modified (GM) soybean oil.

•RBI has removed the Rs 1 lakh ceiling on loan against jewellery where the borrower repays all dues in one go on maturity of the loan.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

4.10

1.271.15 1.14 1.12

-3.13

-2.65-2.52

-2.34-2.12

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

SOYAMEAL CHILLI TEJA SUGAR M 200 RBD PALMOLEIN GUR NEW SILVER HEDGE JEERA STEEL LONG COMMERCIAL

KAPAS1 MT

3.94

2.50

2.192.06 1.94

-3.81

-2.69-2.55

-1.35

-0.47

-5.00

-4.00

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

ZINC MINI NICKEL MINI COPPER MINI LEAD MINI ALUMINIUM MINI COTTON NATURALGAS SILVER GOLDM MENTHAOIL

COMMODITY

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 18.07.14 24.07.14 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1981.00 2026.00 2.27

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 6985.00 7169.50 2.64

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2187.00 2237.00 2.29

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 18660.00 19160.00 2.68

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2294.00 2388.00 4.10

GOLD COMEX AUG 1309.40 1290.80 -1.42

SILVER COMEX SEPT 20.89 20.42 -2.26

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX SEPT 101.95 102.07 0.12

NATURAL GAS NYMEX AUG 3.95 3.85 -2.63

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

17.07.14 24.07.14

ALUMINIUM 4976200 4930475 -45725

COPPER 159175 156300 -2875

NICKEL 308418 310716 2298

LEAD 213375 213350 -25

ZINC 657725 655825 -1900

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 17.07.14 24.07.14 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 1085.25 1084.75 -0.05

Maize CBOT DEC Cent per Bushel 378.50 369.50 -2.38

CPO BMD OCT MYR per MT 2309.00 2281.00 -1.21

Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 449.60 447.60 -0.44

13

®

SPOT PRICES (% change) Target for Food grain Production during 2014-15

On July 22, 2014, the government has set the target for food grains production at 261

million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop years, lower than the last year's record output due

to considering below lower monsoon. The country is estimated to have achieved an

all-time high production of food grains at 264.38 million tonnes (MT) in the 2013-14

crop year (July-June), as per government data.

Targets for agricultural production are as follows:

Schemes to Enhancing Production and Productivity of Agricultural Production

Under the 12th Five Year Plan, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation has 5

Centrally Sponsored Missions, 5 Central Sector Schemes and 1 State Plan Scheme

under implementation.

Government is implementing various crop development programmes/ schemes

through State Governments such as National Food Security Mission (NFSM), Bringing

Green Revolution to Eastern India (BGREI), Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY),

National Mission on Oilseeds and Oil Palm (NMOOP) and Mission for Integrated

Development of Horticulture (MIDH) etc. to meet the targets for agricultural

production, including food grains.

Under these programmes, assistance is provided for activities like demonstrations of

improved technologies, distribution of improved seed / planting material, need

based plant protection and soil amendments, resource conservation techniques/

energy management, efficient water application tools, protected cultivation,

farmers' trainings, etc. for enhancing production and productivity of agricultural

production in the country.

Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY) aims to incentivize the States to increase

investment in agriculture and allied sectors to achieve 4% growth in agriculture

sector. The scheme is available for any agriculture activity that can increase

production growth in the agriculture and allied sectors.

Conclusion: If the higher production estimates meet the target, it will provide some

relief to the government at a time when monsoon rains are expected to be below-

normal this year. According to Meteorological Department of India, India's southwest

monsoon in 2014 is progressing very slow and still 25% below the normal. Low rains

could force the government to push more food grain through the open market to

control prices and a higher output would help.

-1.82

-1.37

-1.17

-0.43

-0.43

-0.37

-0.20

0.00

0.32

0.35

0.46

0.73

0.87

0.96

1.13

1.32

1.75

3.18

-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

JEERA (UNJHA)

GOLD 10 GMS (MUMBAI)

CHANA (DELHI )

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

MASOOR (INDORE)

GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

*(in million bales of 170 kg each for Cotton)

**(in million bales of 180 kg each for Jute & Mesta)

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Crop Production Target(in million tonnes)

Total food grains 261.00

Rice 106.00

Wheat 94.00

Pulses 19.50

Coarse Cereals 41.50

Oilseeds 33.00

Sugarcane 345.00

Cotton* 35.00

Jute & Mesta** 11.20

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 60.36 60.43 60.01 60.13

EUR/INR 81.66 81.73 80.68 81.01

GBP/INR 103.20 103.20 102.18 102.33

JPY/INR 59.52 59.62 59.05 59.16

(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

23rd July Japan's exports unexpectedly fell in June for a second straight month,

23rd July The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in July,

24th July Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell sharply in June

24th July IMF cuts global growth outlook, warns of stagnation risk in rich nations

24th July British house prices grew at their slowest rate in over a year in July

24th July The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly 8-1/2 years last week

25th July Japan's core consumer inflation eased slightly in the year to June

EUR/INR (JULY) contract closed at 81.01 on 24th July'14. The contract made its high of `81.73 on 21st July'14 and a low of `80.68 on 24thJuly'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 81.44.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.62. One can sell around 81.25 for a target of 80.10 with the stop loss of 81.90

`

JPY/INR (JULY) contract closed at 59.16 on 24thJuly'14. The contract made its high of 59.62 on 21st July'14 and a low of `59.05 on 24th July'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 59.26.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.08. One can sell around 59.25 for a target of 58.10 with the stop loss of 59.75.

Market Stance

Indian rupee traded on mixed note in the week gone by and settled with

marginal gains and test one week high on back of sustained foreign fund

inflows into the stock and debt markets. Moreover, the sentiment was further

boosted after India allowed foreign institutional investors to hold more

government debt while reducing portion available to long terms investors.

Foreign buying is helping prop up share markets, which rose to record highs

last week, But that was not enough to sustain the gains in local currency given

heavy dollar buying by state-run banks to meet month-end import payment

demands of clients, with some traders citing potential dollar buying by the

Reserve Bank of India. Moreover, firm dollar in overseas market also capped

the sharp gains in local currency as ongoing geopolitical tensions are acting as

supporting factor for dollar.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (JULY) contract closed at ̀ 60.13 on 24th July'14. The contract made its high of `60.43 on 21st July'14 and a low of `60.01 on 24thJuly'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 60.20

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.80. One can sell below 59.80 for a target of 58.80 with the stop loss of 60.25

GBP/INR (JULY) contract closed at 102.33 on 24th July'14. The contract made its high of 103.20 on 21st July'14 and a low of ̀ 102.18 on 24thJuly'14 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 102.69.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.98. One can sell around 102.60 for a target of 101.50 with the stop loss of 103.15.

`

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

30th July USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting 30th July EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.00% 30th July EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) 1.00% 30th July USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) -2.90% 30th July USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 1.30% 30th July USD Personal Consumption 1.00% 30th July USD Fed Pace of Treasury Pur $20B 30th July USD Fed Pace of MBS Purchases $15B 30th July USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.25% 31st July EUR German Unemployment Change 9K 31st July EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.70%01st Aug USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls 288K01st Aug USD Unemployment Rate 6.10%01st Aug USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 1.50%01st Aug USD ISM Manufacturing 55.3

14

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IPO

IPO NEWSIPO NEWS

Thyrocare plans IPO in February to allow investors to exit

Leading diagnostic laboratories player Thyrocare Technologies today said it is coming out with an IPO in February 2015 to allow its private equity fund

an exit route. Private equity fund CX Partners has 27 per cent stake, would dilute 25 per cent and retain two per cent. Other two partners - NVP and ICICI

Emerging funds - having 10 per cent and 3 per cent stakes, respectively, will retain their stake. Thyrocare Technologies has presence in more than 2,000

cities and towns in India. It has a focus on providing quality at affordable costs to laboratories and hospitals in India and other countries.

Department of Disinvestment to appoint bankers for NHPC sake sale

The Disinvestment Department will soon appoint merchant bankers for 11.36 per cent stake sale in NHPC that could fetch about `3,000 crore to the

exchequer. The Inter-Ministerial Group (IMG) on disinvestment met last Friday and approved selling 11.36 per cent in NHPC through an Offer for Sale

(OFS). Government holds 85.96 per cent stake in NHPC. The stake sale would help the company comply with the minimum 25 per cent public

shareholding norm of market regulator SEBI. The Department of Disinvestment (DoD) is in the process of preparing a draft Cabinet note for inter-

ministerial consultation for NHPC stake sale. In the current fiscal the government plans to mop up ̀ 43,425 crore from selling stake in PSUs.

IndiGo's over ̀ 2,000 crore IPO may take wing

Low- fare carrier IndiGo has finalized seven banks to raise up to $400 million (`2,404 crore) via its maiden public sale of shares. It aims to sell 25% stake

while being valued at $1.6 billion to $2 billion (`9,600 crore to ̀ 12,000 crore). The banks include Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, UBS, Standard

Chartered, Morgan Stanley and Kotak Mahindra. The company aims to list towards the end of the current financial year. IndiGo's planned valuation is

slightly higher than Jet's, which was valued at $1.58 billion (`9,500 crore) by Etihad, which last year bought a 24% stake in it for $379 million. The shares

were valued at a 32% premium to their market price.

Investors with over 10% stake may get to take the OFS route

The Securities and Exchange Board of India is likely to allow only those large investors — owning more than 10% stake in top 200 companies by market

capitalisation — to sell their stake through the offer-for-sale (OFS) route. Moreover, it is likely to issue a circular this week on the eligibility criteria for

non-promoter shareholders, framework for offering discount and other risk-management measures. Last month, the SEBi board approved a proposal to

modify the OFS framework so as to encourage retail participation, enable all large shareholders to use the OFS mechanism and also expand the universe

of companies eligible to use this platform. The OFS mechanism introduced over two years ago has helped promoters of more than 100 companies to

divest their stake worth over ̀ 48,000 crore, with a majority of the fund raising by government in PSUs. ONGC promoters had made the largest offer of

`12,766.75 crore, which was higher than all the stake sale by 92 private sector companies of ̀ 10,848 crore through this route.

15

®*Closing prices as on 24-07-2014

IPO TRACKER

Wonderla Holidays Entertainment 1268.16 181.25 9-May-14 125.00 164.75 224.45 79.56

Just Dial service provider 11291.15 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1609.15 203.61

Repco Home Fin Finance 2778.86 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 447.05 159.91

V-Mart Retail Trading 640.54 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 356.65 69.83

Bharti Infra. Telecom 49303.16 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 260.85 18.57

PC Jeweller Jewellary 2197.56 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 122.70 -9.11

CARE Rating Agency 3431.57 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 1183.30 57.77

Tara Jewels Jewellary 237.71 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 96.55 -58.02

VKS Projects Engineering 23.31 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.37 -99.33

Speciality Rest. Restaurants 695.01 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 148.00 -1.33

T B Z Jewellary 1120.56 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 167.95 39.96

NBCC Construction 5615.40 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 467.95 341.46

MT Educare Miscellaneous 504.19 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 126.70 58.38

Olympic card. Media 37.35 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 22.90 -23.67

Company Sector M.Cap(In ̀ Cr.) Issue Size(in `Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

*

16

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MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

HDFC MF introduces FMP 1123D July 2014 (1)

HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 1123D July 2014 (1), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on July 22, 2014 and closes on Aug 04, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to objective of the Plans under the Scheme is to

generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the

respective Plan(s).

Birla Sun Life MF introduces Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series 22

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series 22, a close ended income

scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 24, 2014 and closes on Aug 08, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek capital

protection by investing in fixed income securities maturing on or before the tenure of the scheme and seeking capital appreciation by investing in

equity and equity related instruments.

ICICI Prudential MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 75-370 Days Plan D, a close ended

income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on July 22, 2014 and closes on July 28, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate

income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/debt instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme.

UTI MF introduces FTIF Series XIX - XV (1101 Days)

UTI Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of UTI FTIF Series XIX - XV (1101 Days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on July 23, 2014 and closes on Aug 06, 2014. No entry load or exit load will be applicable for the scheme. The investment objective of the

scheme is to generate returns by investing in portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme. However

the scheme does not guarantee / indicate any return.

AXIS MF introduces Enhanced Arbitrage Fund

AXIS Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of AXIS Enhanced Arbitrage Fund, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on July 24, 2014 and closes on Aug 08, 2014. No entry load or exit load will be applicable for the scheme. The investment objective of the

scheme is to generate income through low volatility absolute return strategies that take advantage of opportunities in the cash and the derivative

segments of the equity markets including the arbitrage opportunities available within the derivative segment, by using other derivative based

strategies and by investing the balance in debt and money market instruments.

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund files offer document to launch a Close Ended Capital Protection Oriented Scheme as "Canara Robeco Capital

Protection Oriented Fund– Series 3

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund has filed an offer document with SEBI to launch a Close Ended Capital Protection Oriented Scheme as "Canara Robeco

Capital Protection Oriented Fund– Series 3". The New Fund Offer price is Rs 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek capital

protection by investing in high quality fixed income securities maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme and seeking capital appreciation by

investing in equity and equity related instruments.

17

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NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

18-Jul-2014 31-Jul-2014 Close-Ended Growth `5000Birla Sun Life Emerging Leaders Fund - Series 4-Regular Plan (G)

Mahesh Patil /

Milind Bafna

To generate long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related securities of Small & Mid Cap companies.

18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 19.32 16-Sep-2010 566.21 38.11 58.23 107.07 23.95 18.65 2.56 0.78 0.37 6.23 49.67 31.52 12.59

HSBC Midcap Equity Fund - Growth 30.86 19-May-2005 127.72 30.18 54.91 100.37 14.69 13.06 2.96 0.96 0.18 7.61 76.42 11.06 4.91

Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund - G 33.19 27-Mar-2008 109.15 37.32 70.29 95.08 24.31 20.88 3.06 1.03 0.34 26.77 46.05 10.24 16.94

ICICI Prudential MidCap Fund - Growth 56.34 28-Oct-2004 329.37 30.00 55.21 91.89 19.55 19.42 2.45 0.81 0.29 27.87 57.77 5.65 8.72

DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund - Reg - G 28.29 14-Jun-2007 522.43 34.43 56.78 85.25 20.33 15.74 2.37 0.72 0.29 3.50 63.65 22.77 10.09

Sundaram SMILE Fund - Reg - Growth 50.60 15-Feb-2005 335.87 33.65 61.88 84.86 16.82 18.74 3.02 1.07 0.15 2.79 63.35 32.60 1.26

UTI Mid Cap Fund - Growth 59.19 09-Apr-2004 963.98 26.81 50.03 80.92 21.83 19.93 2.31 0.82 0.30 19.10 71.48 6.87 2.55

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 24/07/2014Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 339.76 01-Feb-1994 5833.88 22.53 37.94 55.11 15.52 20.31 2.12 1.05 0.10 33.24 32.68 5.3328.75

HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 91.63 11-Sep-2000 1502.72 18.91 31.41 49.45 15.97 17.32 1.54 0.74 0.14 27.95 41.02 0.2230.80

Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 34.53 08-Jun-2005 570.58 20.56 30.51 41.92 15.21 14.54 1.70 0.87 0.09 54.63 15.35 4.1325.89

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 78.66 03-Nov-1999 777.19 16.90 26.95 39.82 17.11 15.03 1.52 0.78 0.17 43.26 24.43 1.6930.63

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 136.44 08-Oct-1995 648.52 19.62 28.43 39.61 16.99 16.82 1.61 0.83 0.12 42.71 30.59 1.6725.03

L&T India Prudence Fund - Growth 15.84 07-Feb-2011 59.97 17.09 26.50 38.80 15.44 14.23 1.47 0.75 0.14 32.79 30.91 5.5430.76

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 79.50 09-Oct-1995 612.14 16.59 25.96 38.58 16.67 16.69 1.38 0.65 0.20 33.57 36.92 4.5924.93

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 14.45 23-Jun-2010 408.69 19.05 11.07 12.39 13.49 12.01 9.93 9.43 15.60 0.17 948.38 N.A

Franklin India Cor. Bond Oppor. Fund - G 13.06 07-Dec-2011 6224.08 24.79 5.18 7.56 11.02 11.74 N.A 10.70 14.56 0.16 1003.75 10.57

Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 19.67 03-Sep-2003 289.67 23.91 10.63 10.69 10.23 11.37 9.26 6.41 31.45 0.10 1759.30 8.82

Franklin India Income Oppor. Fund - G 14.92 11-Dec-2009 3991.55 22.61 5.64 7.64 10.42 11.17 9.64 9.05 13.69 0.17 894.25 10.57

UTI Income Opportunities Fund - G 11.56 19-Nov-2012 554.53 20.97 4.61 8.32 10.64 10.89 N.A 9.04 15.98 0.10 854.39 N.A

L&T Income Opportunities Fund - G 14.43 08-Oct-2009 555.72 19.80 6.28 8.22 10.63 10.77 8.59 7.96 12.97 0.04 693.50 8.20

L&T Income Opportunities Fund - Ret - G 14.21 08-Oct-2009 555.72 19.82 6.29 8.22 10.63 10.77 8.31 7.61 13.36 0.03 693.50 8.20

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - DAP 15.30 08-Apr-2009 9289.91 36.45 18.97 16.30 11.59 9.85 9.41 8.36 19.29 0.08 N.A 8.83

Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - G 22.12 24-Sep-2004 9289.91 36.44 18.96 16.30 11.59 9.85 9.41 8.41 19.29 0.08 N.A 8.83

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 15.79 25-Mar-2009 2957.64 20.45 4.45 8.23 11.36 11.57 10.63 8.95 12.71 0.26 N.A 10.45

UTI Short Term Income Fund - Ret - G 22.91 23-Jun-2003 2754.86 16.14 9.85 9.77 10.59 10.97 9.81 7.76 12.13 0.19 747.01 N.A

Kotak Income Opportunities Fund - G 13.96 11-May-2010 891.92 22.69 8.11 8.81 10.53 11.00 9.10 8.27 14.37 0.11 821.25 10.60

Birla Sun Life Short Term Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 21.22 24-Apr-2003 3393.74 19.68 2.55 6.57 10.44 10.82 10.43 6.91 11.75 0.26 N.A 9.79

DSP BlackRock Income Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 20.83 13-May-2003 1151.80 19.52 3.51 6.84 10.39 10.73 8.91 6.77 10.35 0.15 1000.10 10.55

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Birla Sun Life Tre. Optimizer Plan - Ret - G 240.38 19-Apr-2002 700.74 20.84 3.54 7.54 11.38 11.13 9.74 7.41 5.37 0.41 N.A 9.21

Birla Sun Life Treasury Optimizer Plan - DAP 148.40 22-Jun-2009 700.74 20.83 3.53 7.53 11.24 10.87 9.52 8.07 5.40 0.36 N.A 9.21

Franklin India Low Duration Fund - G 14.38 26-Jul-2010 2032.05 11.71 8.66 9.02 10.03 10.41 9.86 9.51 4.01 0.56 164.25 9.66

Kotak Banking and PSU Debt Fund - G 29.32 29-Dec-1998 960.01 9.21 7.93 8.34 9.61 11.96 9.08 7.15 11.37 0.16 73.00 8.90

IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 18.39 17-Jan-2006 2204.38 8.94 7.15 8.30 9.57 10.19 9.77 7.42 3.78 0.55 156.00 8.93

Birla Sun Life Savings Fund - Ret - G 244.72 27-Nov-2001 6314.40 10.40 7.54 8.13 9.55 10.26 9.40 7.32 3.99 0.47 N.A 9.08

DWS Treasury Fund - Investment - G 14.54 09-Oct-2009 1813.37 9.05 6.08 7.84 9.51 9.87 9.13 8.13 6.65 0.23 255.50 8.83

Annualised

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Mr. Ajay Garg (Director, SMC Group) being awarded with “Entrepreneur of the Year” during

4th Entrepreneur India Awards 2014, event organized by Franchise India at Hotel Taj Vivanta, Surajkund

Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) sharing his thoughts during the event

“The India Budget 2014 – Middle East Impact” organized by Times Now at Hotel Crown Plaza, Dubai