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2014: Issue 403, Week: 30th December - 02nd January A Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)
Bra
nd
sm
c 2
26
(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive Sonia Bamba
REGISTERED OFFICES:
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Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365
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Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03
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Printed and Published on behalf of
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smcindiaonline.com
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Printed at: S&S MARKETING
102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)
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lobal stock markets largely remained firm in the week gone by led by the
optimism from the U.S. and Chinese economy. Economic data out of U.S. like Gjobless claims, consumer confidence, etc. continues to point that the
economy is strengthening and would lead to unwinding of bond purchases in year 2014.
Money market rates dropped for the fourth consecutive day in China reflecting the
People's Bank of China (PBOC) intervention in the money markets. Japanese stock market
touched record high since 2008 reflecting buoyancy in the economy led by “Abenomics”.
Japan saw highest inflation since 2008, as consumer prices excluding food rose 1.2
percent in November marching towards central bank's target of 2%. Japanese stock
market that clocked nearly 50% gains in 2013 is expected to fare well in 2014 supported
by strength in dollar as an outcome of bond purchase tapering.
No doubt Indian markets continued to attract the interest of foreign investors, who have
pumped about $19 billion so far this year. The factors such as Current Account Deficit
(CAD) and the ballooning inflation would decide if the foreign players will participate
actively in the domestic markets in coming year. It is expected that the fortunes of the
sectors which have not performed well in the last few years such as capital goods,
infrastructure, auto ancillaries, textiles and oil & gas, will improve with the stable
government, its measures and reforms post election. The next major trigger for the
market will be the corporate earnings for the December quarter. Next week onward the
market will keep a close eye on the performance of India Inc.
On the commodities front, it was a roller coaster ride for commodities in the year 2013.
Bullion counter took away the limelight with its downside and tumbled by 28%. Industrial
metals nosedived and energy prices reignited on renewed buying amid geopolitical
tensions. Furthermore, agri commodities performed mixed on their own fundamentals.
Commodities may remain in a range due to lack of direction in near term. At present,
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trying to reach $100, but to stay above the level of $99;
it really needs strong support. Better economic numbers in US are likely to support the
base metals complex as firm demand from China and decline in stockpiles in LME are
supporting the prices. Bullion counter is expected to witness some lower level buying but
overall sentiment will remain downbeat. Gold may move in the range of 28000-29000 in
MCX. Moreover, thin volume trading is likely to continue on New Year celebration.
Wishing You All A Very Happy & Prosperous New Year!
From The Desk Of Editor
4
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
SENSEX 21075 UP 12.09.13 19317 20200 19800 19400
S&P NIFTY 6279 UP 12.09.13 5728 5850 5750 5780
CNX IT 9430 UP 18.07.13 7306 8900 8700 8500
CNX BANK 11386 UP 19.09.13 11149 11000 10600 10500
ACC 1111 DOWN 13.11.13 1041 1080 1100 1120
BHARTIAIRTEL 330 UP 12.09.13 329 340 330 320
BHEL 175 UP 05.09.13 138 160 155 148
CIPLA 398 DOWN 21.11.13 387 405 410 415
DLF 171 UP 26.12.13 171 160 155 150
HINDALCO 121 UP 29.08.13 107 115 110 105
ICICI BANK 1100 UP 12.09.13 951 1060 1020 1000
INFOSYS 3521 UP 18.07.13 2800 3300 3200 3100
ITC 320 DOWN 13.11.13 314 330 336 340
L&T 1073 UP 19.09.13 888 1020 980 950
MARUTI 1794 UP 19.09.13 1480 1700 1650 1620
NTPC 137 UP 26.09.13 150 145 140 135
ONGC 292 UP 31.10.13 294 280 270 265
RELIANCE 888 UP 12.09.13 875 850 840 830
TATASTEEL 425 UP 22.08.13 274 390 375 360
NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSCapital Goods• BHEL has bagged an ̀ 1,023 crore contract from Neyveli Lignite Corporation
(NLC)for supplying turbine generator package at a thermal power project in Tamil Nadu. BHEL has earlier secured orders from NLC for their 2x500 MW Tuticorin, 2x250 MW Neyveli and 2x125 MW Barsingsar projects.
Automobile• Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) is driving into the rural markets to boost sales.
The company, which devised a plan to tap rural markets five years ago, is planning to have presence in a total of 100,000 villages across the country by March next year.
Pharmaceuticals• Elder Pharma plans to focus on its anti-infectives' vertical and strengthen
in-licence portfolio besides looking at expanding presence in global markets.
• Biocon - the development of oral insulin - is expected to be delayed further. The Bangalore-based company which is attempting to develop this drug for the past few years - first on its own and for the past one year with global pharmaceutical major Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS), is expected to pick up talks with BMS on the future of the project going further.
Cement• Ultratech's nearly `3,800 crore deal with Jaypee Cement Corporation to
acquire its facilities in Gujarat has received approval of fair trade watchdog CCI that ruled the transaction does not raise unfair competition concerns. As per the deal, Ultratech, a leading manufacturer of cement in India, will acquire Jaypee's cement unit in Gujarat comprising an integrated cement plant at Sewagram, limestone reserves, captive power plant and mining leases, among others.
Metal & Mining• A three-way joint venture between SAIL, RINL and MOIL to produce ferro
alloys is on the cards with the earlier two separately proposed between SAIL-MOIL and MOIL-RINL having virtually been scrapped.
Power• NTPC has lined up new projects of 19,000 MW capacity, nearly half of that
would be commissioned by 2017. Infrastructure Developers• IRB Infrastructure Developers, a highway developer, has announced that
its wholly-owned Subsidiary - IRB Westcoast Tollway Pvt. Ltd. – SPV for Goa/Karnataka Border to Kundapur Project, has tied up project finance of `1,406 crore for this project.
FMCG• Bajaj Corp has formed a 100% subsidiary Bajaj Corp International (FZE) for
skin and hair care products business. It further said the subsidiary has been incorporated in Sharjah Airport International Free Zone Authority, UAE.
Hotels & Restaurants• Speciality Restaurants has opened a franchise "Sigree- Global Grill",
restaurant located at City Center Mall, Next to Keys Hotel, Old Pune-Mumbai Highway, Pimpri, Pune- 411018.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• US new home sales fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
464,000 in November from the revised October rate of 474,000. Economists had expected sales to climb to edge up to 450,000 from the 444,000 originally reported for the previous month.
• US durable goods orders surged up by 3.5 percent in November following a revised 0.7 percent decrease in October. Economists had expected orders to increase by about 2.0 percent compared to the 1.6 percent drop that had been reported for the previous month.
• US personal income crept up by 0.2 percent in November after edging down by 0.1 percent in October. Economists had been expecting income to increase by about 0.5 percent. Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, inched up by just 0.1 percent in November following a 0.2 percent in drop in the previous month.
• US jobless claims tumbled to 338,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 380,000. Economists had expected claims to drop to 340,000 from the 379,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• Industrial profits in China were up 13.2 percent on year in the period of January to November - coming in at 5.33 trillion yuan. That's down from the 13.7 percent annual increase in the year through October. For November, total industrial profits gained 9.7 percent to 707.48 billion yuan - down from the 15.1 percent yearly gain in October.
• Japan's housing starts rose more-than-expected in November. Housing starts grew 14.1 percent year-on-year, following a 7.1 percent increase in the previous month. Economists were looking for a gain of 9.2 percent.
EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE
30-DEC-13 UPL BUYBACK
30-DEC-13 SBIN PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
30-DEC-13 CANBK RAISING OF CAPITAL
07-JAN-14 GMBREW RESULTS
07-JAN-14 MANAKSIA SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT
09-JAN-14 GEODESIC RESULTS/OTHERS
09-JAN-14 SHAKTIPUMP CHANGE IN DIRECTORS,PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
10-JAN-14 COROMANDEL SCHEME OF AMALGAMATION
10-JAN-14 SYNDIBANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
11-JAN-14 GOACARBON RESULTS/OTHERS
13-JAN-14 EXIDEIND RESULTS
15-JAN-14 BANKBARODA PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
15-JAN-14 BAJAJFINSV RESULTS
15-JAN-14 BAJFINANCE RESULTS
16-JAN-14 BAJAJ-AUTO RESULTS
16-JAN-14 BAJAJHLDNG RESULTS
20-JAN-14 MIRCELECTR RIGHT ISSUE,RAISING FUNDS THROUGH DEBT INSTR.
21-JAN-14 THERMAX RESULTS
22-JAN-14 HDFC RESULTS
22-JAN-14 APLLTD RESULTS
31-JAN-14 KANSAINER RESULTS
03-FEB-14 DOLPHINOFF RESULTS
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
®
5
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
The FII data presented for December 26, 2013 is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by all custodians on December 26, 2013 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on December 23, 2013 and December 24, 2013.
2.21
3.43
0.95
0.54
0.07
-0.02-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
-0.31
-0.68
0.90
2.202.04
0.33
0.15
0.91
0.36
1.78
3.09
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
-0.56
1.521.60
1.30
1.92
1.29
1.61
1.33
0.59
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
837.60
188.90
22.30
245.30
193.90
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII Activity MF Activity
5.535.21
4.67 4.67
3.48
-2.81-2.60
-1.58 -1.55 -1.47
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Punjab Natl.Bank
B H E L DLF Jindal Steel Grasim Inds H D F C Cairn India Sesa Sterlite Sun Pharma.Inds.
Hero Motocorp
5.53
2.80
1.85 1.68 1.68
-2.62
-1.73-1.44 -1.40
-1.05
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
B H E L O N G C Hindalco Inds.
Axis Bank Tata Steel H D F C Sesa Sterlite Sun Pharma.Inds.
Hero Motocorp
M & M
During the quarter ended September 2013, the company has posted its strongest growth in seven quarters. The strategy of focusing on the top 125 accounts is
delivering the results. There is a broad based growth across the customers. Going forward, the growth momentum is likely to continue on the back of improved
deal win rates and couple of large multi-year deal won by the company. We expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 705 in one year time frame on a target P/E of
20x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 35.27.
WIPRO LTD CMP: `547.65 Upside: 29%Target Price: `705
In the last few years, the company has delivered strong financial performance. The company is focused on the exploration across the asset portfolio both in India
and core areas internationally and has also started the seismic survey in its South Africa block, which is in line with the company's exploration led growth strategy
focused on replacement and growth of reserves leading to long term sustainable value creation. We expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 421 in one year time
frame on a target P/E of 7x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 60.21.
CAIRN INDIA LTD CMP: `320.10 Upside: 32%Target Price: `421
In the last few years, the company has reported steady growth in its revenue and profits. Going forward, the company is likely to maintain the growth momentum
on the back of huge capex undertaken by the company. We expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 219 in one year time frame on one year average P/E of 20.98x
and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 10.45.
ADANI PORT & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD CMP: `160.05 Upside: 37%Target: `219
PNB's September quarter ended performance is just an aberration as sluggish economy and high interest rates due to depreciating rupee and inflation have taken a
toll on the profitability of bank. But in the next half year of FY 14, it is expected to be healthier with stable rupee and improving economic conditions in the
country. On the estimated book value of ̀ 1072.48 for FY15E and one year average P/BV of 0.74x, we expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 798 in one year time
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK CMP: `629.85 Upside: 27%Target: `798
With a unique combination of businesses, the company is well poised to capitalise on future global growth opportunities. Going forward, the company is expected
to register a healthy sales growth, supported by strong order backlog. On the estimated September FY15E EPS of ̀ 8.09 and target P/Ex of 25x, we expect the stock
to see a price target of ̀ 202 in one year time frame.
CROMPTON GREAVES LTD CMP: `131.90 Upside: 53%Target: `202
The company is planning to improve its development through expansion into further locations and increasing its presence in new therapeutical area as well as
launch of new products to fill gaps in its current portfolio. We, thus, expect the stock to see a price target of `655 in one year time frame, based on estimated
FY15E EPS of 36.38 on target P/Ex of 18.
TORRENT PHARMACEUTICALS LTD CMP: `478.00 Upside: 37%Target: `655
The company will continue to remain focused on execution to further improve the operating performance in the months ahead. Consistently strong results over
the past few quarters is an outcome of introduction of high power and specialized tractors which are improving volumes and strengthening margins. On the
estimated September FY15E EPS of Rs 17.68 and two year average P/Ex of 10.13x, we expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 179 in one year time frame.
ESCORTS LTD CMP: `139.70 Upside: 28%Target: `179
The Company's business is driven by strong and sustained growth of the FMCG sector. Its R&D capability, global customer network, large scale and manufacturing
expertise, may help in seizing the opportunity that is being continuously thrown up across the globe. We, thus, expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 68 in one
year time frame, based on estimated FY15E EPS of 9.04 on one year average P/Ex of 7.55.
ESSEL PROPACK LTD CMP: `52.55 Upside: 30%Target: `68
As its farm equipment expertise has grown over the years, company has expanded into key overseas markets. Currently, it has a strong presence in more than 40 countries and
a global customer base of over 1.45 million. Company continues its efforts on developing new products and technologies to meet the ever growing customer needs, regulatory
requirements, competitive pressures and to prepare for the future. The price increases will help to protect and maintain margins at around 11 percent, going forward. We
expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 1202 in one year time frame, based on estimated FY15E EPS of 75.56 on a one year average P/Ex of 15.91.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD CMP: `959.10 Upside: 25%Target: `1202
The company has world class assets, efficient operations and has strong track record. Despite volatile commodity prices and temporarily suspended iron ore
operations at Goa and Karnataka, the company has delivered a strong operational and financial performance during the quarter ended September 2013. The
management of the company expects to recommence mining in Karnataka soon and is hopeful that the Goa mining suspension will be resolved by the Supreme
Court soon. On this back drop, the company has robust growth potential going forward. We expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 264 in one year time frame on
two year average P/E of 9.24x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 28.62.
SESA STERLITE LTD CMP: `199.30 Upside: 33%Target: ` 264
Beat the street - Top Ten Picks For 2014
6
® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Companies Website Reuters CapitalineFor the detail report, please refer our company website www.smctradeindiaonline.com
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at `238.10 on 27th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`126.50 on 28th August 2013 and a 52-week high at `393 on 18th January 2013.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
is currently at ̀ 298.71.
After making low of 126.50 levels, it rebounded sharply and then formed flag
formation, which is a bullish formation on the charts. Last week, after a
formation it gave a breakout, which resulted in an increase in almost 4 percent in
price with great volumes. We anticipate that it will further shoot up in coming
days and reach our suitable targets. One can buy 236-238 levels with closing
below stop loss of 228 levels for the target of 250-252 levels.
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 316 on 27th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at 287
on 25Th November 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 372 on 04th June 2013. The 200
days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at ̀ 257.42.
It has formed descending channel formation on the charts and last week it
breached its upward trend line indicating strength in it. One can buy in the range
of 312-314 levels with closing below stop loss of 302 levels for the target of 330-
332 levels.
` `
The stock closed at 122.30 on 27th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`83.10 on 07th August 2013 and a 52-week high of ̀ 137.10 on 02nd January 2013.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
is currently at ̀ 127.17.
After trading in a 110-120 levels for a time being last week there was a marginal
gain in it but looking at the metal index, we anticipate that it may rise further as
lower level buying opportunity would emerge in this particular scrip. One can
buy in the range of 120-121 levels with closing below stop loss of 116 levels for
the target of 130-132 levels.
`
BANK INDIA
HINDALCO
CASTROL
®
DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
Nifty rollovers were at 68.00% in line with the 3 month average of 70.00%. Market wide rollover was at 80.60% in line with the 3M average of 80.50%. India VIX
dipped further by 4.5% and settled at 14.88. The market expects a rise in volatility in the days to come. If the Index slips below the 6250 mark; it could gradually
slide to 6100 levels. Conversely, a sustained move beyond 6300 levels should see Nifty climbing to 6500 levels. Technically, the Index continues to trade above all
its moving averages, of 200-day and 100-day EMAs, indicating a bullish scenario. On the contrary, sustaining 6200 levels is extremely crucial for a continued
uptrend. Jan contract ended the week at a premium of 56.00 points. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 0.95. The highest concentration of call option is
at 6500-strike call option, which has 39 lakh shares. Among the put options, the highest open interest is at the 6200 strike, with an open interest of above 32 lakh
shares. The options build-up in the 6500 strike indicates a stiff resistance in the medium term. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options was 14.47% on Friday;
while average IV of put options was 15.50%. The index is likely to trade in the range of 6250-6450 next week.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
®
FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
BATAINDIA (JAN FUTURE)
Buy: Above `1070
Target: `1106
Stop loss: `1058
BAJAJ-AUTO
Buy JAN 1900. PUT 40.00
Sell JAN 1850. PUT 24.00
Lot size: 125
BEP: 1884.00
Max. Profit: 4250.00 (34.00*125)
Max. Loss: 2000.00 ( 16.00*125)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
ICICIBANK
Buy JAN 1140. CALL 29.00
Sell JAN 1160. CALL 21.00
Lot size: 250
BEP: 1148.00
Max. Profit: 3000.00 (12.00*250)
Max. Loss: 2000.00 ( 8.00*250)
RELCAPITAL
Buy JAN 380. CALL 11.00
Sell JAN 390. CALL 8.00
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 383.00
Max. Profit: 7000.00 (7.00*1000)
Max. Loss: 3000.00 ( 3.00*1000)
BULLISH STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
M&M (JAN FUTURE)
Buy: `981
Target: `1008
Stop loss: `969
Above
CROMPGREAV (JAN FUTURE)
Sell: `330
Target: `322
Stop loss: `333
Below
BEARISH STRATEGY
BUY100.0%
SELL0.0%
176.01
1275.19
650.35
-722.33-609.57
-979.72 -955.05
-564.27
-
-628.66 -632.02
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
12-Dec 13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec 20-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec 20-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec
506900
335100
765800858150
1055400
2135100
2708250
3227900
2305850
1544000
12232001351200
1072450
2622050 2562850
2745200
2490950
1146450
684800681500
96400
396000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600 6700 6800
Call Put
8
9
BHARTIARTL 11098000 12294000 10.78 0.46 0.55 0.09 28.87 28.17 -0.70
DLF 18463000 26230000 42.07 0.70 0.54 -0.16 43.07 46.47 3.40
HINDALCO 20610000 18822000 -8.68 0.63 0.79 0.16 32.38 28.72 -3.66
HINDUNILVR 5162500 6362500 23.24 0.53 0.96 0.43 22.66 19.19 -3.47
ICICIBANK 8787250 8633250 -1.75 0.66 0.50 -0.16 29.46 28.31 -1.15
IDEA 8324000 8410000 1.03 0.43 0.88 0.45 25.22 30.54 5.32
INFY 2608125 3125750 19.85 1.90 0.65 -1.25 17.42 35.76 18.34
ITC 20444000 25106000 22.80 0.39 0.42 0.03 18.67 20.54 1.87
JPASSOCIAT 38744000 41872000 8.07 0.68 0.45 -0.23 45.68 44.10 -1.58
NTPC 16382000 19566000 19.44 0.41 0.35 -0.06 22.05 21.51 -0.54
ONGC 8832000 11280000 27.72 0.51 0.50 -0.01 30.44 24.99 -5.45
RANBAXY 8753000 10781000 23.17 0.58 0.49 -0.09 36.22 40.21 3.99
RCOM 27000000 35118000 30.07 0.48 0.66 0.18 37.30 38.25 0.95
RELIANCE 9436000 11686250 23.85 0.68 0.34 -0.34 23.34 21.48 -1.86
NIFTY 18371150 18952650 3.17 1.24 0.95 -0.29 14.73 14.50 -0.23
SAIL 18324000 17680000 -3.51 0.52 0.44 -0.08 31.63 29.81 -1.82
SBIN 4399875 5698500 29.52 0.51 0.52 0.01 28.82 27.40 -1.42
TATASTEEL 13673000 13740000 0.49 1.25 0.55 -0.70 26.22 25.54 -0.68
UNITECH 111016000 123324000 11.09 0.26 0.50 0.24 54.91 55.01 0.10
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV.* CURRENT** % PREV.* CURRENT** PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased
to 0.95 from 1.24. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has decreased to 14.50% from 14.73%. The IV of the stock futures has changed
this week ranging from -5.45% to 8.34%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has increased by 3.17% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -8.68% to 42.07%. DLF has the
maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 6179.70 High 6334.00
Low 6170.00 Close 6278.90
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
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13
14
15
16
17
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
20-Dec 23-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec
Nifty Close IV
10
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Jeera futures (Jan) is expected to trade with a bearish bias & to move downward 12300-12200 levels on the back of strong production estimates & higher carryover stocks of about 7 lakh bags. Moreover, it is estimated that the current year jeera production is estimated to be around 40-42 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 5-7 lakh bags from the year. In Gujarat region, Jeera sowing may complete till 31 December as farmers are interested for higher sowing due to availability of high quality seed (known as No.4) which have low chance for damage. Turmeric futures are likely to continue its bullish momentum on the wheels of weak stocks in the local mandies. It is estimated that total carryover stocks of turmeric at the beginning of December have been reduced to 40-42 lakh bags as against 55 lakh bags reported last year in the same period. The total production of turmeric in the current year is estimated at 52 lakh bags as against 70 lakh bags that were estimated in the last year. Good demand from North Indian buyers as well as exporters is expected to support the turmeric prices in the days to come. The short covering in cardamom futures (Jan) is likely to remain capped near 700-710 levels. The higher arrivals at the auctions are indicating higher production during the current season that began in August. The total production this year is estimated at between 20,000 and 25,000 tonnes. On the demand side, activities are lukewarm as the northern States are under the grip of severe cold.
SPICES
Bullion counter is expected to witness some lower level buying but overall sentiment will remain downbeat. However, volume tends to be low at this time for the year due to holidays. Moreover stronger US stock markets, which are languishing at life time high reduced the demand as safe haven of yellow metal. Meanwhile, movement of the local currency rupee will impact prices of yellow metal on the domestic bourses. Gold may move in the range of 28000-29000 in MCX. White metal silver can hover in the range of 43000-46500. Bullion investors are worried that U.S. Federal Reserve will begin unwinding its stimulus and then the recent decision to do so has also hurt bullion that is seen as a hedge against inflation. COMEX gold tumbled by 28 percent this year, set for its worst annual drop since 1981, as U.S. equities surged to records and unprecedented money printing failed to stoke inflation. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETP, fell to 804.22 metric tonnes last week, the lowest since January 2009, and contracted 40 percent this year. The U.S. Mint, Royal Canadian Mint and the Perth Mint all reported extremely high sales of their silver coins. Lower prices enticed consumers to buy more physical silver as consumers have been substituting silver for gold because of strict imports put in place in mid-2013.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices can continue their last week upside momentum due to signs of improving US and China economy and bullish US stock markets. U.S. gross domestic product grew at 4.1 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, the fastest pace in almost two years. Overall crude oil can move in range of 6000-6450 in MCX and $97-105 in NYMEX. Worries over instability in South Sudan are also assisting the prices higher. Meanwhile U.N. Security Council voted to increase U.N. peacekeeping forces in conflict torn South Sudan by nearly 80 percent. The U.S. and its allies agreed last month to scale back measures targeting Iran's exports in return for it curbing its nuclear program. The EU lifted a ban on insurance for tankers that carry Iranian crude and the U.S. said it will refrain from forcing buyers to cut purchases further. The US winter demand can keep the upside momentum intact in Natural gas as it can test 290 in MCX. Recently natural gas hit two and a half year high as cold weather caused a spike in heating demand, taking an unprecedented bite out of inventories. According to the most recent report, underground storage stood at 3,248 billion cubic feet. That is 13% below last year's level on the same date and more than 7% below the average of the past five years. Cheap gas and tougher emissions regulation have encouraged many utilities to switch off coal fired power plants in favor of natural gas. Plenty of industrial companies have stepped up use of the liquids present in natural gas for fuel or chemical precursors.
ENERGY COMPLEX
OTHER COMMODITIES
Sugar futures (Jan) is likely to face resistance near 2840 levels. In the current scenario, the prospects for exports bleak as crushing is currently under way in Thailand, the world's second-largest exporter after Brazil. Indian raw sugar was quoted at $435 a tonne, down from $440 two weeks ago. White sugar prices from India were unchanged at $460 a tonne. On the international market, ICE March raw sugar futures near 16.21 cents a lb is near to the three-year low of 15.86 cents a lb. The counter on the track for a yearly loss of more than 17%, is losing its momentum amid pressure from rising supply from Brazil, Thailand and India. The March white sugar on Liffe at $443.40 per tonne, headed for a 2013 loss of 15 %. Kapas futures (Apr) would possibly maintain the uptrend & test 1020 levels, surpassing the resistance at 1000 levels. As cited by the Cotton Association of India, India's consumption in 2013-14 is forecast at 5.1 million tonnes, with an increase of 12% from the average of 4.5 million tonnes for the last four seasons. In 2014-15, its consumption is forecast to increase a further 7% from the current season to 5.5 million tonnes. Chana futures (Jan) is expected to consolidate in the range of 2960-3140 levels, with upside getting capped on prospects of higher output this season. As per the latest statistics from Ministry of Agriculture, the total area under pulses stands at 126.84 lakh hectare and it exceeds the normal area of 126.70 lakh hectare for the entire Rabi season.
Better economic numbers in US are likely to support the base metals complex, also firm demand from China and decline in stockpiles in LME are supporting the prices. Base metals are gaining support on an improving outlook for economic growth in China, year-end covering and the prospect of purchases from state reserves. China's growth is likely to come in at 7.6 percent this year, just above the government's target of 7.5 percent. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 460-480. Orders for long lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November and a gauge of planned business spending on capital goods recorded its largest increase in nearly a year, pointing to sustained strength in the economy. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 128-135 in MCX. Zinc inventories at the LME warehouses have been continuously declining for the last 39 trading sessions indicating tightening supply in the metal. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 870-925 in MCX. Aluminum can move in the range of 107-112. China's national output of the aluminium has risen by 3.36 million tonnes annualised since the first quarter of this year. Average daily production in November was 65,130 tonnes, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. Europe's aluminium premiums or costs to get metal out of storage are approaching record highs despite reforms aimed at stemming them, as persistent use of material for collateral in financing deals squeezes availability. Battery metal lead can move in the range of 137-144.
BASE METALS
Mustard futures (Jan) would possibly extend its downfall & test 3450 levels on the back of strong domestic production estimates in the current year along with waning export demand for mustard meal in the local mandies. The latest data shows that the acreage under the commodity stood at 67.63 lakh hectares on December 19, up nearly 6.10% as compared to the last year, mainly on the account of higher sowing acreage in major producing states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat. CPO futures (Jan) is likely to extend its fall towards 535 levels. At the spot market, local refineries have lowered palm oil rates by `2-4 for 10 kg, due to lack of demand. On the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives, it is seen moving away from a near 2-week high, after initial data showed exports from the world's second-largest producer dropped more than 7% so far this month. The downside may remain capped on reports that the Meteorological Department issued a warning on a possible second wave of flood in state of Pahang in Peninsular Malaysia, beginning Dec 30. Soybean futures (Jan) is expected to move down towards 3650 levels, breaching the support at 3750 levels. In the current scenario, there is not much export demand as the Indian parity is said to be out-priced. Indian soymeal is priced at around $570 per tonne, about $20 costlier than supplies from South America. At the spot market, soyabean prices were `3,600-3,750 in Maharashtra and in Madhya Pradesh, it was Rs 3,700-3,900 ex mandi and ̀ 3,900-4,000 at plant delivery.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Closing as on 26.12.2013
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN (JAN) 3821.50 10.10.13 UP 3681.00 3600.00 - 3350.00 - 3100.00
NCDEX JEERA (MAR) 12597.50 03.10.13 DOWN 12607.00 - 13100.00 13500.00 13700.00
NCDEX CHANA(JAN) 3087.00 19.12.13 DOWN 2985.00 - 3300.00 3500.00 3700.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (JAN) 3572.00 13.11.13 UP 3816.00 3500.00 - 3450.00 - 3350.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (JAN) 832.60 13.11.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (JAN) 683.10 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 780.00 830.00 860.00
MCX SILVER (MARCH) 44776.00 26.09.13 DOWN 48639.00 - 47000.00 50000.00 53000.00
MCX GOLD (FEB ) 28576.00 26.09.13 DOWN 29865.00 - 30000.00 30500.00 31000.00
MCX COPPER (FEB) 470.00 12.12.13 UP 459.90 455.00 - 445.00 - 425.00
MCX LEAD (JAN ) 140.90 19.12.13 UP 136.50 130.00 - 125.00 - 115.00
MCX ZINC (JAN ) 130.95 19.12.13 UP 459.90 120.00 - 115.00 - 105.00
MCX NICKEL(JAN ) 888.40 12.09.13 DOWN 879.20 - 920.00 - 950.00 980.00
MCX ALUMINUM (JAN ) 108.45 26.09.13 DOWN 111.65 - 113.00 - 118.00 123.00
MCX CRUDE OIL (JAN) 6199.00 26.09.13 DOWN 6415.00 - 6250.00 - 6400.00 6550.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (JAN ) 279.50 28.11.13 UP 247.20 265.00 - 255.00 - 245.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
LEAD MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at ̀ 140.90 on 26th December '13. The contract made its high of
`146.25 on 24th December '13 and a low of `132.30 on 13th December'13. The 18-day Exponential
Moving Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 136. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 69. One can sell in the
range 142.50-144 with the stop loss of ̀ 146.50 for a target of ̀ 137.
CRUDE OIL MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at 6199.00 on 26th December '13. The contract made its
high of `6247.00 on 19th December '13 and a low of `5825.00 on 29th November'13.The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 6119.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 57. One can buy in the
range 6160-6140 with the stop loss of ̀ 6110 for target of ̀ 6260.
`
ALUMINIUM MCX (JANUARY) contract closed at 108.45 on 26th December '13. The contract made its
high of ̀ 112.20 on 13th December '13 and a low of ̀ 107.90 on 26th December'13.The 18-day Exponential
Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 110.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39. One can buy in the
range 107.50-106.50 with the stop loss of ̀ 105 for a target of ̀ 111.
`
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LEAD MCX (JANUARY)
CRUDE OIL MCX (JANUARY)
ALUMINIUM MCX (JANUARY)
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
In the week gone by, commodities traded thin across the globe as bulls were busy in celebrating
Christmas. Absence of fresh triggers left traders clueless. Bullion counter traded down in the
beginning of the week. Weak trend in the overseas markets as US data showing a strengthening
economy boosted equities and curbed demand for safe haven assets, mainly put pressure on the
gold prices. However, the gold saw some recovery in the prices as lower level attracted buying in
both spot and futures market. Silver took support near 44000 levels. Energy counter traded up but
rally appeared overstretched. Sweet crude rose on speculation that crude stockpiles shrank in
the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer. Geopolitical tensions also added premium in the
prices. Violence forced a partial production shutdown in South Sudan. Fighting in South Sudan,
which exports about 220,000 barrels a day of crude, forced the government to evacuate some oil
workers. Natural gas prices gave the closing above the mark of 279 levels. Prices declined despite
updated weather forecasts called for a fresh blast of below-normal temperatures to push across
the eastern U.S. in the coming week. Base metals traded mix on their own fundamentals. Copper,
zinc and lead traded up and nickel and aluminium closed down. Zinc prices rose to their highest
level in nearly 10 months on Monday, the biggest gainer in the base metals complex in past few
weeks, lifted by the tightening supplies and robust imports from China. Mining shutdown news
also propped up zinc prices. Mining companies are shutting down key zinc-output facilities in
Canada and Australia, because reserves in those mines have largely been depleted. As per an
estimate global zinc supplies will fall by 1.7 million metric tonnes in the next two or three years.
In agri commodities, steady to weak sentiment was witnessed in jeera as lower demand reported
in the domestic market during last week. Expectations of higher production current year
pressurize the cardamom prices in the domestic market. Guar counter improved despite
increasing arrivals and lack of interest by millers to crush due to negative crush margins. Exports
were good in splits and meal in November 2013. November month guar exports are also 44% higher
as compared to guar exported in October 2013. Sugar prices jumped in domestic market whereas
it traded down in the international market. With delay in sugarcane crushing operations by mills,
sugar output is likely to decline for the coming marketing year and this news spurred the prices.
Edible oil prices moved down on weak international markets.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 18.12.13 24.12.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.
BARLEY MT 669 588 -81
CASTOR SEED MT 343 8161 7818
CHANA MT 18606 13828 -4778
CHILLI MT 35 101 66
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 10529 18050 7521
JEERA MT 108 24 -84
MAIZE MT 6499 6634 135
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 7110 6939 -171
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 3960 8802 4842
SUGAR M MT 729 729 0
WHEAT MT 0 846 846
COMMODITY UNIT 19.12.13 26.12.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 74.80 77.20 2.40
KAPASIA KHALLI BALES 3554.56 3998.99 444.43
GOLD KGS 48.00 48.00 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 22.60 12.40 -10.20
GOLD GUINEA KGS 2.18 2.18 0.00
MENTHA OIL KGS 2558713.90 2545758.60 -12955.30
MILD STEEL MT 334.91 334.91 0.00
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 36704.82 36328.65 -376.16
•China's trade surplus widened to $33.8 billion in
November, the most in more than four years.
•Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in
December at the fastest clip in more than seven years
as firms added workers at the quickest pace in over six
years.
•Japan's crude steel output is expected to surge to a six-
year high in the fiscal year to March 2014
•U.S. jobless claims declined by 42,000 to 338,000 in the
week ended Dec. 21.
•The Government has revised the Customs duty
structure for natural rubber. The import duty will now
be 20% or `30 a kg, as compared to 20% or `20 a kg,
whichever was lower.
•NCDEX has received approval for cotton seed contract
from the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) and will
be introducing the contracts on the exchange soon.
•NCDEX Spot Exchange said it has signed an agreement
with the Karnataka government to form a joint venture
company to modernize APMC markets in the state by
bringing in electronic auctions.
•NCDEX to settle all commodity contracts through
indigenously designed and developed commodity
accounting system - COMTRACK.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
QTY.
4.63
3.05 3.05
2.40 2.32
-11.39
-7.52
-2.94 -2.77-2.36
-14.00
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
RUBBER NEW GUAR SEED GUAR SEED 10 COPPER CHANA CASTOR SD NEW
CORIANDER BARLEY MAIZE KHARIF JEERA
3.19
3.00
2.46 2.44
1.76
-1.68
-1.33
-1.07-0.93
-0.66
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
ZINC MINI GUARGUM COPPER LEAD MINI SILVER MIC ALUMINIUM NICKEL CPO CARDAMOM MENTHA OIL
Yearly price movement of Chana Futures
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Open 1993.00 2445.00 2131.00 2200.00 2475.00 2559.00 3339.00 3855.00
High 3345.00 2648.00 3016.00 2685.00 2590.00 3700.00 4999.00 4127.00
Low 1702.00 1985.00 2111.00 2001.00 2065.00 2198.00 3020.00 2528.00
Close 2460.00 2131.00 2514.00 2474.00 2557.00 3354.00 3852.00 2939.00
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
Rs. /Quintal
-1.46
-1.21
-0.84
-0.35
-0.23
-0.05
0.28
0.37
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.93
1.18
5.06
-2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00
CORIANDER (KOTA)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
GOLD 10 GMS (MUMBAI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CHANA (DELHI )
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
MASOOR (INDORE)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
A Fundamental update on Pulses
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 20.12.13 26.12.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME* 3 MONTHS 1785.00 1755.50 -1.65
COPPER LME* 3 MONTHS 7245.00 7272.00 0.37
LEAD LME* 3 MONTHS 2193.50 2247.00 2.44
NICKEL LME* 3 MONTHS 14260.00 14110.00 -1.05
ZINC LME* 3 MONTHS 2037.00 2072.00 1.72
GOLD COMEX** FEB 1203.70 1212.30 0.71
SILVER COMEX** MAR 19.45 19.92 2.38
LIGHT CRUDE OILNYMEX** FEB 99.32 99.55 0.23
NATURAL GAS NYMEX** FEB 4.47 4.48 0.20
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
Domestic fundamentals
•The production of pulses in the country has increased from 14.20 million tonnes in 2006-07 to 18.45 million tonnes during the year 2012-13 (4th Advance Estimates of Directorate of Economics and Statistics).
•The Government of India (GoI) has taken various initiatives to increase the production of pulses through area expansion and enhancement of productivity by implementing various crop development programmes like National food Security Mission (NFSM) and Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY).
•The total production of pulses is estimated at 18.45 million tonnes during 2012-13. In addition, Government of India has imported 3.83 million tonnes of pulses during 2012-13 to fulfil the requirement of pulses the country.
•In 2013-14, the demand for pulses is projected at 21.77 MMT against the 19MMT of domestic production with 1.42 MMT imports till September 2013 -Ministry of Agriculture, GOI.
Sowing status
•The Total area under pulses stands at 126.84 lakh hectare as on 20th December, 2013 and it exceeds the normal area of 126.70 lakh hectares for the entire Rabi season.
•According to Gujarat Agriculture Department, Rabi pulses sowing in the state have been done in 1,82,600 hectares compared to 1,38,700 hectares during the same period last year as on December 2, 2013.
•Rabi Pulses Sowing in Maharashtra till December 14, 2013- Chana sowing surge to 1,223,730 hectares, Other pulses sown area also surge in 377,93 hectares.
•According to government of Andhra Pradesh, total pulses sowing in the state have been covered in 6.75 lakh hectares compared to 9.02 lakh hectares during the same period last year as on 11th December, 2013 in the current Rabi season.
•According to weekly crop report released by government of Rajasthan, Rabi pulses sowing in the state have been covered in 13.98 lakh hectares compared to 11.32 lakh hectares during the same period last year as on 28th November, 2013.
International fundamentals
•Australian Crop Report December 2013 forecast chickpea production to decrease by 17% in 2013–14.
•Canadian Dry Pea production for 2013-14 is estimated to increase by 13%.
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WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
19.12.13 24.12.13
ALUMINIUM 5407550 5460225 52675
COPPER 384950 379100 -5850
NICKEL 255246 255906 660
LEAD 219100 216450 -2650
ZINC 904925 890625 -14300
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 20.12.13 26.12.13 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT JAN Cent per Bushel 1339.00 1318.75 -1.51
Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 433.25 426.25 -1.62
CPO BMD MAR MYR per MT 2584.00 2634.00 1.93
Sugar LIFFE* MAR 10 cents per MT 446.50 443.40 -0.69
* LME close as on 24.12.13** COMEX & NYMEX closing as on 26.12.13
* LIFFE close as on 24.12.13
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 62.13 62.19 61.76 62.13
EUR/INR 84.80 85.09 84.35 85.09
GBP/INR 101.55 101.76 101.05 101.73
JPY/INR 59.55 59.79 58.79 59.32
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
23rd Dec: Britain's Current Account Deficit (CAD) ballooned to its widest since 1989 in the three months to September, despite strong economic growth.
24th Dec: British lenders provided more mortgages for home buyers in November than in any month in nearly four year
24th Dec: Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell for a second week and hit a 13-year low
24th Dec: Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November24th Dec: Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell modestly in November
from a five-year high26th Dec: U.S retail sales rose in November and December26th Dec: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment
benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month
EUR/INR (JAN) contract closed at 85.09 on 26th December'13. The contract made its high of `85.09 on 26th December'13 and a low of `84.35 on 26th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 85.10.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.35. One can buy around 85.40 for a target of 86.50 with the stop loss of 84.80.
`
JPY/INR (JAN) contract closed at 59.32 on 26th December'13. The contract made its high of `59.79 on 23rdDecember'13 and a low of `58.79 on 26thecember'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 59.98.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35.92. One can buy around 59.30 for a target of 60.50 with the stop loss of ̀ 58.70.
`
Market Stance
Rupee remained sideways during the week and ended near the unchanged line
on the back of mixed sentiments prevailing in the markets. However, rupee
started the week with sharp gains and strengthened to a one week high
boosted by the Reserve Bank of India chief's comment on reluctance to over
tighten monetary policy after leaving interest rates unchanged in a surprise
move last week. Moreover, global weakness in dollar along with smart gains in
equities on the back of strong foreign flows kept the rupee on stronger side
while month end dollar demand from oil importers continues to weigh. In the
international market, sharp upside moves in euro as against dollar on the back
of some positive figures from US front also supported the local currency. Initial
jobless claims in the US declined while durable goods orders climbed 3.5% in
November.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (JAN) contract closed at ̀ 62.13 on 26th December'13. The contract made its high of `62.19 on 23rd December'13 and a low of `61.76 on 26th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 62.12.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.43. One can sell below 61.85 for a target of 60.75 with the stop loss of 62.50.
GBP/INR (JAN) contract closed at `101.73 on 26th December'13. The contract made its high of `101.76 on 26th December'13 and a low of `101.05 on 24th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 101.62.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.12. One can buy around 101.90 for a target of 103.05 with the stop loss of 101.30
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
®
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS30th Dec GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) 6.50%30th Dec EUR Retail Sales (YoY) -0.20%30th Dec USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) -1.60%31st Dec USD Consumer Confidence 70.402nd Jan EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI 52.702nd Jan EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI 51.602nd Jan GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI 58.402nd Jan USD Initial Jobless Claims 338K02nd Jan USD Continuing Jobless Claims 2.923M02nd Jan USD Construction Spending (MoM) 0.80%02nd Jan USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.303rd Jan GBP Mortgage Approvals 67.701K03rd Jan GBP PMI Construction 62.603rd Jan EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.90%03rd Jan EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 0.90%
IPOIPO
IPO TRACKER
Company Sector M.Cap(In `Cr.) Issue Size(in `Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
*
Just Dial service provider 9371.86 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1337.50 152.36
Repco Home Fin Finance 2184.92 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 351.50 104.36
V-Mart Retail Trading 408.68 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 227.55 8.36
Bharti Infra. Telecom 31922.75 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 169.00 -23.18
PC Jeweller Jewellary 1570.71 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 87.70 -35.04
CARE Rating Agency 2120.48 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 731.20 -2.51
Tara Jewels Jewellary 210.50 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 85.50 -62.83
VKS Projects Engineering 56.70 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.90 -98.36
Speciality Rest. Restaurants 598.04 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 127.35 -15.10
T B Z Jewellary 916.12 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 137.35 14.46
MT Educare Miscellaneous 370.55 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 93.15 16.44
NBCC Construction 1824.60 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 152.05 43.44
Olympic card. Media 39.31 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 24.10 -19.67
Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 2410.26 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 472.60 -54.21
Indo Thai Sec. Finance 12.35 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 12.35 -83.31
Vaswani Inds. Steel 7.45 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 2.60 -94.69
Flexituff Intl. Packaging 513.60 104.63 19-Oct-11 155.00 155.00 223.50 44.19
Prakash Constro. Construction 9.68 60.00 4-Oct-11 138.00 145.00 0.77 -99.44
*Closing prices as on 26-12-2013
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15
IPO NEWS
IPO ads can be innovative but risk disclosures must: Sebi
In their advertisements to attract investors to public offers, companies can be more creative and innovative as long as they are not misleading and contain
necessary disclosures of associated risks and other facts, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) chairman UK Sinha has said. The primary market has
been mostly sluggish for last few years, as companies have been finding it unattractive to enter the capital market to raise funds through sale of shares,
although SEBI has taken a number of steps to revive this segment. The public offer advertisements, aimed to hard-sell the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) and
Follow-on Public Offers (FPOs) among potential investors, typically follow similar formats containing numerous details without any usual creativity
associated with other ads.
Suyog Telematics SME IPO to open on December 30
Mumbai-based telecom company, Suyog Telematics has planned to come out with its public issue of 18.12 lakh equity shares of ̀ 10 each for cash at a price of
`25 per share aggregating to `4.53 crore. The issue will be opened for subscription during December 30, 2013 and January 7, 2014. Suyog Telematics'
business is to build, own and operate telecommunication poles, towers (particularly roof-top towers), OFC systems and related assets and to provide these
passive infrastructure assets on a shared basis to wireless and other communications service providers. Issue proceeds are proposed to be used for
installation of 10 new roof top poles, installation of 100 new ground based poles, and upgradation and replacement of existing tower and poles. The equity
shares offered through the prospectus are proposed to be listed on the BSE SME Platform. Aryaman Financial Services is the book running lead manager while
Sharepro Services (India) Private Limited is registrar to the issue.
Haldia Petrochemicals to issue 51.2 cr fresh shares
The board of loss-making Haldia Petrochemicals (HPL) has decided to issue 51.2 crore fresh equity shares at ̀ 25.10 each through a rights issue in an effort to
save the company from being declared sick. After detailed study and looking at various options available, the HPL board arrived at a conclusion that the only
option available before the company to avoid making reference to BIFR and its revival through fresh infusion of funds, is to go forward for a rights issue of
equity shares inviting its existing shareholders to subscribe in 51.2 crore equity shares at a price of `25.10 per share being the discovered price which
emerged from the disinvestment process by WBIDC.
16
®
MUTUAL FUND
NEWS
HDFC MF introduces FMP 372D December 2013 (2)
HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 372D December 2013 (2), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription
on Dec 27, 2013, and closes on Dec 30, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market
Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). There is no assurance that the investment objective of
the Scheme will be realized.
ICICI Prudential MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 72-368 Days Plan A
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan-Series 72-368 Days Plan A, a Close Ended Income
scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 26, 2013, and closes on Jan 2, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in
a portfolio of fixed income securities/debt instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme. However, there can be no assurance that the
investment objective of the Scheme will be realized
ICICI Prudential MF introduces Multiple Yield Fund-Series 5-1825 Days-Plan C
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of ICICI Prudential Multiple Yield Fund-Series 5-1825 Days-Plan C, a Close Ended Income
scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on Dec 23, 2013, and closes on Jan 2, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns by investing
in a portfolio of fixed income securities/ debt instruments. The secondary objective of the Scheme is to generate long term capital appreciation by investing a
portion of the Scheme's assets in equity and equity related instruments. However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the under the
Scheme will be realized.
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series JM (367 days)
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series JM (367 days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO
opens for subscription on Dec 27, 2013, and closes on Dec 30, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of
fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
SBI MF introduces Debt Fund Series - 16 Months – 1
SBI Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of SBI Debt Fund Series - 16 Months - 1, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on
Dec 26, 2013, and closes on Dec 30, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide regular income, liquidity and returns to the investors through
investments in a portfolio comprising of debt instruments such as Government Securities, PSU & Corporate Bonds and Money Market Instruments maturing on or
before the maturity of the scheme.
IDFC MF introduces Fixed Term Plan Series -59
IDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of IDFC FIXED Term Plan Series -59, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on
Dec 27, 2013, and closes on Dec 30, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market
instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.
Kotak Mahindra MF introduces FMP Series 132 (546 Days)
Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Kotak FMP Series 132 (546 Days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on Dec 27, 2013, and closes on Jan 2, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns through investments in debt and money
market instruments with a view to reduce the interest rate risk.
L&T MF introduces FMP Series X-Plan B (502 days)
L&T Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of L&T FMP Series X-Plan B (502 days), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on
Dec 26, 2013, and closes on Jan 1, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to achieve growth of capital through investments made in a basket of debt/
fixed income securities (including money market instruments) maturing on or before the maturity of the Scheme.
Deutsche Mutual Fund files offer document for DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund Series 21- 25
Deutsche Pioneer Mutual Fund has filed offer document with SEBI to launch a Close Ended Debt Fund named as “DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund Series 21- 25”. The
New Fund Offer price is ̀ 10 per unit. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in fixed income securities maturing on or before
the date of the maturity of the Scheme and to generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments.
Sundaram MF introduces Fixed Income Interval Fund Plan 1 (510 days)
Sundaram Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Sundaram Fixed Income Interval Fund Plan 1 (510 days), a close ended income scheme. The
NFO opens for subscription on Dec 26, 2013, and closes on Jan 7, 2014. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in
Fixed Income Securities & Money Market Securities.
17
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NFOs WATCH
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
31-Dec-2013 02-Jan-2014 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series JN (368 Days) Direct Plan (G)
Kaustubh Guptato generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
02-Jan-2014 10-Jan-2014 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 48 (3 years) - Regular Plan (G)
Kedar Karnikto generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the respective plan(s).
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Pru. Exports and Other Services Fund - G 27.09 30-Nov-2005 155.04 16.72 39.28 43.56 14.39 13.13 1.64 0.39 0.56 57.25 31.66 2.84 8.26
Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 84.66 24-May-1996 108.20 10.18 17.74 16.75 7.08 16.65 1.34 0.49 0.14 69.16 23.28 1.51 6.05
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - Growth 134.20 31-Oct-2002 3398.03 12.77 26.68 16.65 6.91 26.19 1.58 0.62 0.16 54.96 19.57 2.60 22.87
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - Growth 31.14 29-Mar-2005 173.07 27.45 28.95 14.23 8.53 13.86 2.08 0.64 0.20 8.42 71.82 12.26 7.50
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 19.27 13-Jan-2006 281.76 20.13 20.35 13.33 9.03 8.59 1.95 0.67 0.15 13.12 70.48 7.97 8.43
Axis Equity Fund - Growth 13.61 05-Jan-2010 563.06 7.59 12.11 12.57 5.53 8.06 1.74 0.80 0.13 78.71 11.36 5.17 4.77
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 12.06 16-Sep-2010 285.89 33.53 34.27 11.68 6.16 5.88 2.02 0.58 -0.01 1.58 59.95 36.64 1.83
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 26/12/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 62.58 09-Oct-1995 398.12 12.09 14.33 11.51 5.74 15.73 1.34 0.09 33.29 33.15 5.91 27.66
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 61.77 03-Nov-1999 535.01 10.50 14.33 11.20 9.79 13.73 1.35 0.11 48.19 18.45 1.97 31.39
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 69.22 11-Sep-2000 1099.18 14.72 16.38 8.92 7.33 15.66 1.42 0.03 25.45 41.97 3.77 28.81
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 58.42 10-Dec-1999 193.03 8.73 9.79 7.16 5.58 13.38 1.52 0.04 57.14 15.35 NA 27.51
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 93.13 20-Jan-1995 869.48 10.12 13.63 6.85 3.75 16.06 1.35 0.01 54.41 17.75 2.15 25.69
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 105.33 08-Oct-1995 562.98 8.24 12.16 6.81 7.72 15.73 1.51 0.02 48.35 25.48 0.72 25.46
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 366.07 10-Feb-1995 584.69 8.43 11.13 6.27 4.84 21.00 1.47 0.02 55.71 16.36 1.07 26.86
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - Gr 18.45 03-Sep-2003 392.85 -11.00 2.11 5.40 5.26 10.46 8.39 6.11 39.74 0.09 1628.00 8.41
ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 25.97 28-Mar-2002 303.39 8.20 16.22 11.81 9.57 9.03 8.74 8.46 3.29 0.43 6.79 6.65
Templeton India Income Oppor. Fund - G 14.05 11-Dec-2009 3742.69 6.35 7.40 10.05 6.65 8.71 9.29 8.78 17.09 0.08 843.00 10.99
Axis Banking Debt Fund - Growth 1141.77 08-Jun-2012 256.69 7.94 8.05 10.41 8.48 8.70 N.A 8.93 8.18 0.16 102.00 9.06
Templeton India Cor. Bond Oppor. Fund - G 12.27 07-Dec-2011 4871.08 5.57 8.68 11.21 6.75 8.68 N.A 10.46 17.93 0.08 971.00 11.20
DSP BlackRock Income Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 19.66 13-May-2003 516.49 5.98 9.83 11.02 7.04 8.15 8.48 6.56 12.26 0.06 532.00 N.A
Reliance RSF - Debt - Growth 16.71 09-Jun-2005 3316.33 4.59 6.19 9.89 6.23 8.05 8.67 6.16 12.52 0.07 726.00 10.20
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Birla Sun Life Short Term Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 20.01 24-Apr-2003 1029.13 6.26 7.40 10.57 7.43 10.13 10.21 6.71 14.11 0.18 N.A 10.38
Sundaram Select Debt - S T A P - Reg - Appreciation 21.43 04-Sep-2002 305.37 5.99 6.67 8.92 7.42 9.96 11.10 6.97 13.60 0.19 391.00 9.55
HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund - G 13.47 25-Jun-2010 2389.25 6.16 8.08 11.07 7.36 8.45 9.22 8.86 13.25 0.08 485.00 9.74
Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 23.03 08-Aug-2002 320.22 4.83 7.81 9.62 7.35 9.15 9.02 7.60 12.52 0.13 471.00 9.01
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 14.81 25-Mar-2009 1320.35 6.06 5.86 10.61 7.17 10.24 10.22 8.60 15.23 0.17 N.A 11.02
Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 14.10 26-May-2009 526.66 6.14 6.95 10.26 7.13 9.05 9.24 7.86 13.42 0.10 533.00 9.21
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund - DAP 14.12 06-Mar-2009 5191.74 4.55 6.50 10.32 7.05 8.44 9.49 7.43 11.61 0.09 N.A 9.60
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
DSP BlackRock Money Manager Fund - Reg - G 1699.54 31-Jul-2006 1686.27 7.87 7.68 9.16 9.66 9.15 8.83 7.42 4.84 0.33 104.00 N.A
DWS Ultra Short-Term Fund - Growth 20.27 21-Oct-2003 1842.88 8.30 8.49 9.23 9.50 9.19 9.19 7.18 4.30 0.39 40.00 9.55
Templeton India USB Fund - Retail - G 16.01 18-Dec-2007 4132.25 8.84 8.64 9.77 9.39 9.42 9.35 8.12 3.65 0.51 73.00 9.74
Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1878.98 06-Sep-2005 2700.42 8.40 8.37 9.54 9.36 9.36 9.41 7.89 4.26 0.44 89.00 9.14
UTI Treasury Advantage Fund - Reg - G 3156.93 12-Jul-1999 7890.95 7.85 7.79 9.66 9.26 9.19 9.07 8.27 3.23 0.52 106.00 N.A
Birla Sun Life Savings Fund - Ret - G 232.10 27-Nov-2001 4607.40 8.01 8.00 9.71 9.24 9.30 9.22 7.21 5.02 0.35 N.A 9.72
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 17.44 17-Jan-2006 1824.43 8.57 8.52 9.80 9.23 9.41 9.71 7.25 4.76 0.41 63.00 9.34
Annualised
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31st March, 2014
