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2019 World Bank Water Week | Washington DC | 2 April 2019
A WATER SECUREWORLD FOR ALL
Reaching the World Bank’s Goal across a Bounded Planet
C.J. VörösmartyDirector, Environmental Sciences Initiative Advanced Science Research Center,
The City University of New York
THE GREAT ACCELERATION
2
Humans Are Increasingly
“Calling the Shots” at the
Planetary Scale in a New
Geological Epoch Called
the Anthropocene
POPULATION
(billions) REAL GDP
(trillions 2015 USD)
PRIMARY ENERGY
USE
(exojoules)
FOOD
PRODUCTION
(trillion tons)
COASTAL
POLLUTION
(million tonnes
nitrogen)
BIODIVERSITY
LOSS ON LAND
(percent)
A SAFE OPERATING SPACE FOR HUMANITY
3
Genetic
diversity
Functional diversity
(not yet quanitifed)
Prosphorus
Nitrogen
NOVEL
ENTITIES(not yet quanitifed)
CLIMATE
CHANGE
STRATOSPHERIC
OZONE DEPLETION
ATMOSPHERIC
AEROSOL LOADING(not yet quanitifed)
OCEAN
ACIDIFICATIONBIOGEOCHEMICAL
FLOWS
FRESHWATER
USE
LAND-SYSTEM
CHANGE
BIOSPHERE
INTEGRITY
A DUAL-SCALE LOGIC: APPLIED TO WATER
4
MACRO-SCALEGlobally mixed, but with
large-scale thresholds
LOCAL SCALEAccumulated syndromes,
no large-scale thresholds
THE PLOT THICKENS: ADDITIONAL HUMAN EFFECTS
5
ARTIFICIAL IMPOUNDMENTS
DEFORESTATION AND
INTENSIVE AGRICULTURE
FLOW DEPLETION
FLOW DEPLETION
(cropping)
FLOW DEPLETION
(forest loss)
FURTHER LOSS OF RESOURCE: WATER POLLUTION
6
FLOW DEPLETION
Accelerated Nutrient Use
and Mismanagement
Wastewaters Are
Generally Untreated
Receiving Waters Are
Highly Sensitive
KEEPING FRESH WATER WITHIN ITS BOUNDS MEANS
MANAGING SOME OTHER BOUNDARIESFre
shw
ate
r co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
km
3yr1
)
Total freshwater consumption
2,500
179
Industrial and municipal
1,257
Reservoir-related
2,600
Irrigated agriculture
3,628
Non-irrigated agriculture
-3,000
Deforestation
6,000
1,400
Water quality impairment
Planetary boundary
for water
▪ Climate Change
▪ Land Use
▪ Chemical
Pollution
▪ Biodiversity Loss
0
AND KEEPING ALL THE BOUNDARIES IN CHECK
MEANS SOUND MANAGEMENT OF THE BIOSPHERE
8
BUT
HOW?
TWO PATHWAYS TO HUMAN WATER SECURITY
9
Particularly relevant to
the SDG agenda, with
natural capital and
engineering
co-benefits jointly
valued.
7 August 2015 Issue
CLOSING REMARKS
10
• Transgressing the Planetary & Local Boundary for
Water Is Reversible
• Technology, Strategic Investments, & Governance
Instruments Will Be Necessary
• Cross-boundary Management Essential
• Preserving and Sensibly Managing the Biosphere Is an
Non-Negiotiable Component of the Strategy
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
11
environment.asrc.cuny.edu
water-future.org
Contact:
• Charles Vörösmarty <[email protected]>
• Anik Bhaduri <[email protected]>
REFERENCES
12
SLIDES 3 & 4. Image & References:
--Steffen, W. et al., 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet.
Science 13 Feb 2015: Vol. 347, Issue 6223, 1259855; DOI: 10.1126/science.1259855
--Rockström, J. et al., 2009. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: 472-75.
SLIDES 3 & 4. References:
--Destouni, G. et al., 2013. Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy
production. Nature Climate Change 3: 213-17.
--Gordon, L.J., et al., 2005. Proc. Nat. Academy of Sciences USA 102: 7612-17.
--Shiklomanov, I.A., and J. C. Rodda, Eds., 2004. World Water Resources at the Beginning of the
Twenty-First Century, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.
--Jaramillo, F. and G. Destouni, 2015. Comment on “Planetary boundaries: Guiding human
development on a changing planet”. Science 348: 1217-c.
--Hoekstra A. and M. Mekonnen, 2012. The water footprint of humanity. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA
109: 3232-37.
REFERENCES (continued)
13
SLIDE 6: Global Map of Nitrogen Loading:
https://www.wur.nl/en/Research-Results/Chair-groups/Environmental-Sciences/Water-Systems-and-Global-
Change-Group/research/Water-pollution-assessments-1/Global-NEWS.htm
SLIDE 8. Image: Steffen et al. 2015, Science, Supplementary Materials.
SLIDE 9. References:
--Palmer, M. et al., 2015. Manage water in a green way. Science 349: 584-585.
--Muller, M., et al., 2015 Built infrastructure is essential. Science 349: 585-586.
SLIDE 10. Based on Data from Reference:
--Vörösmarty, C. J. et al., 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature
467: 555-561.
--Green, P.A. et al., 2015. Freshwater ecosystem services supporting humans: Pivoting from water
crisis to water solutions. Global Environmental Change 34: 108-118.