A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035 · Indir ct Energy Scope1 Scope2 Scope3 ... • Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas. Gapminder/Dollar Street

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Lund University Centre for Sustainability Science (LUCSUS)@KA_Nicholas

kimnicholas.com

A Vision for a 1.5°C CompatibleWine Industry by 2035

@KA_Nicholas

http://www.kimnicholas.com/climate-science-101.html

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Climate change threatens the future of wine

(and life on Earth)

@KA_Nicholas

15 years of wine & climate research:http://www.kimnicholas.com/wine-climate--sustainability.html

Wine quality depends on climate

Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American@KA_Nicholas

Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American

In optimal conditions, ripening is matched to climate and other conditions

Climate change disrupts wine quality

Graphic: Jen Christiansen, Scientific American@KA_Nicholas

Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American

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Climate adaptation strategy: Avoid changes we can’t manageManage changes we can’t avoid

@KA_Nicholas

Options for climate adaptation

Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change

Short-term Long-term@KA_Nicholas

Expanding/moving vineyard areas not sustainable

Nicholas and Durham, 2012, Global Environmental Change

Short-term Long-term@KA_Nicholas

>80% of global winegrowing uses <1% of available diversity

Wolkovich, Cortazar-Atauri, Morales-Castilla, Nicholas, & Lacombe, 2018, Nature Climate Change

• Just 12 varieties* (shown in red) constitute most wine worldwide

@KA_Nicholas

*Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris




@KA_Nicholas

Consider diversifying varieties as one climate adaptation strategy

*Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris




@KA_Nicholas

* Cabernet-Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Merlot, Pinot noir, Syrah, Sauvignon blanc, Riesling, Muscat Blanc a Petits Grains, Gewurztraminer, Viognier, Pinot blanc, and Pinot gris

Look to diverse areas for possible new varieties

Use wine diversity to increase resilience


@KA_Nicholas

Missing opportunities to adaptwinegrape variety to local climate

12 int’l varieties103 other varieties

We have a choice between two different worlds


We fix it! low emissions<2C°

Temperature (°C)

change by 2070

@KA_Nicholas

Protected geographical indications


We don’t fix itHigh emissions4°C

Temperature (°C)

change by 2070

Temperature (°C)

change by 2070

We have a choice between two different worlds

@KA_Nicholas

We fix it! low emissions<2C°

What kind of world do you want to live in?

Image: Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007, Science

@KA_Nicholas

My summary of the latest science: 2°C warming is not safeMore warming = more risks to people, economy, natureThe faster we reduce carbon emissions to zero, the safer and richer we’ll be, and the more beauty and good wine will be left for us & all future generations!

(My plain-language summary of IPCC 1.5° report, in 59 tweets: kimnicholas.com/climate-policy.html)

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My vision for climate leadershipin the wine industry

1. Support science-based targets for the wineindustry compatible with <1.5°C global warming

2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions acrossthe supply chain

3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life

@KA_Nicholas

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1. Support science-based targets for the wineindustry compatible with <1.5°C global warming

@KA_Nicholas

Emissions pathway to stay below 1.5°C warming: must plummet towards zero

@KA_Nicholas

Source: https://www.cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/klima/stylised-pathways-to-well-below-2c

• Rapid transition awayfrom coal, oil, & gas

• Reduced animal agriculture

• Increase carbonin soils and vegetation

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2. Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions acrossthe supply chain

• Fossil-free by 2030

• ≥85% reduction in GHGs by 2035• Cut first 50% by 2025

• Cut next 50% by 2030

• Cut next 50% 2035

@KA_Nicholas

Aim for zero emissions across supply chain

@KA_Nicholas

FIVS International Wine Greenhouse Gas Protocol 27/27

Joint Ownership of Vineyard, Winery and Bottling

The following diagram describes the entity that owns only vineyard, winery and bottling operations.

Figure 7: Vineyard, Winery and Bottling Centre Process Boundaries

Scope 2 Indirect Emissions

Scope 1 Direct Emissions

Scope 3 Indirect Emissions

Purchased Electricity

Stationary Fuel Use

Water Heaters

Frost Fighting Equipment

Boilers

Electrical Power Generation

Heat Generation

Mobile Fuel Use

Tractors

4wd Motor Bikes

Trucks

Forklifts

Cars

Harvesters

Tillage and Vineyard Practices

Permanent Row Cropping†

Marc Incorporation†

N2O Emissions (Fertiliser and Soil)

Soil Carbon Incorporation†

Vine Photosynthesis Sequestration into Fruit

Sequestration into current Growth

Sequestration in Woody Material†

Degradation and Compositing of Vines

Winery Processing Related

Primary Fermentation

Direct CO2 Use

Fugitive Emissions

HFC Refrigeration

Methane from Stationary Combustion

Waste Disposal

Vineyard Waste

Winery Waste - Solid - Liquid

Packaging Waste

Extraction and Production of Purchased Materials

Fertilizers

Wine Additives

Juice, Spirit, Concentrate

Grapes and Bulk Wine

Oak or oak related products

Bentonite

Tartaric Acid

Packaging Material - Glass - PET - Tetra Pack - Closures - Fibre Packaging - Wooden Packaging

Transport Related Activities

Hired Helicopters Fuel Use

Business Travel

Truck Rail or Ship Transport of Grapes if Machinery not owned by the Vineyard or Winery

Transport of Wine to Bottling Location if moved in equipment not owned by the company

Transport of Wine to point of wholesale in market

Electrical Transmission and

Distribution Losses

Waste Disposal

Solid Waste Disposal, if done Off Site

Waste Water Disposal, if done Off Site

1. ALIGNMENT WITH RECOGNIZED PROTOCOLS

Beverage Container

Raw Materials

Production Packaging Warehousing

Distribution

Consumption

Disposal

Beverage Ingredient

Raw Materials

Indirect

Energy

Inputs

Indirect

Energy

Inputs

Scope1

Scope2

Scope3

Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable, 2010

Carbon footprint of wine

@KA_NicholasPE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”

Priorities to reduce wine’s carbon footprint

@KA_Nicholas

Optimize inputs & nitrogen management

Energy efficiency & renewable energy

Lightweight & alternative packaging

Switch from truck & air to rail & ship transport; fossil free

PE International, “California Wine’s Carbon Footprint”

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3. Use unique position to push industry to innovate & to promote the low-carbon high-life

@KA_Nicholas

Six key areas for climate leadership

http://www.mission2020.global/

@KA_Nicholas 24

Check investment carbon footprint:

Top 10% income individuals = 45% global climate pollution

@KA_NicholasEmissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m; ca. 65 tons each,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change

Top 10%, current emissions: Chancel & Piketty, 2015

USA

Current average:

W EuropeGlobal

High-flyers need to rethink our lifestylesto avoid dangerous climate change

@KA_Nicholas

High-impact actions: Wynes & Nicholas, 2017, Environmental Research Letters1.5°C budget: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2019, 1.5° Lifestyles Report

1.5°C budget: 2.5 tCO2e/yearBy 2030

Emissions data: household of 2 people with assets >$1m,Otto et al., 2019, Nature Climate Change

Car-freeElectric car

Renewableenergy

(Zero-carbonhomes)

Plant-baseddiet

Flyingmuchless

Wine industry leadership can be critical to a safe climate future

@KA_Nicholas

Photo: https://www.winecountry.com.au/• Adapt existing vineyards to changes we can’t avoid• Avoid changes we can’t manage by leading on emissions reductions:

• Commit to targets compatible with <1.5°C global warming• Aim for zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain (85%

reduction by 2035)• Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life

@KA_Nicholas

Gapminder/Dollar Street

We can cut emissions in half and maintain good quality of life

Top 10% income individuals* = 36% total global emissions

*$8405/pp/year; 6272 SEK/month

(Hubacek et al., 2017,Energy, Ecology & Environment)

@KA_Nicholas

@KA_Nicholas

Data from IPCC, 2013; Graph from US EPA

@KA_Nicholas

Data from IPCC, 2013; Graph from US EPA

https://www.slideshare.net/GlenPeters_CICERO/how-much-carbon-can-we-emit

“We have already emitted a lot of CO2, and thus we can only emit a little more to stay

under 1.5°C or 2°C”

32

Unchecked climate change would rewrite the global wine map

Map from Nicholas, 2015, Scientific American. Data from Hannah et al., 2013, PNAS@KA_Nicholas

New Trellising Could Shade and Cool

Fruit, and Increase Quality Previously reported light interception (Dokoozlian & Kliewer, 1995)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Num

ber

of

observ

ations

0

1

02

0

3

0

4

0

Nicholas et al., 2011, Ag & Forest Met

% cluster intercepted light (PAR)

N=488 vines

1% increase in light, >2% decrease in

grape color and tannins (p<0.005)@KA_Nicholas

Mitigation and adaptation

@KA_Nicholas

Minx et al., 2018, Environmental Research Letters, ”egative emissions…"

Grapevine phenological stages

@KA_Nicholas Wolkovich, Burger, Walker & Nicholas, 2017, J Ecology

Documents

A Vision for a 1.5°C Compatible Wine Industry by 2035 · Indir ct Energy Scope1 Scope2 Scope3 ... • Innovate & promote low-carbon high-life @KA_Nicholas. Gapminder/Dollar Street