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A View of the Future:What it Means for Innovative Communities
HELLO!I am Jim StikeleatherI am here because I love to talk about the FUTURE!. You can find me at @stikeyoda [email protected]
A little bit about me:BS CoSci TCUMBA USFDBA Candidate USFSerial EntrepreneurLarge Enterprise ExecutiveCEO / CTO / CIOChief Innovation Officer
Chief Innovation OfficerCouple of booksCouple of patentsSpeaker / BloggerGuest LecturerTrustee USF SystemOptimistic Curmudgeon
StudentTeacherAdvisorMentor
Horst, W. J. R. and M. W. Melvin (1973). "Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning." Policy Sciences 4(2): 155.
So… How does thisrelate to us???Let’s start with the FUTURE… But first a story
Value in the Moment: The Serendipity Economy
Into Transformation*
Atoms to electrons: The Frictionless Economy* You can’t go back
Possibilities – New Ideas / Forward ThinkingForesight – Looking Outside and Anticipating
P E
E
SSocial Forces and Signals
T LLegislative Forces and Signals
Economic Forces and
Signals
Technological Forces and
Signals
Political Forces and Signals
Enviromental Forces and
Signals
DDemo-
graphics
• Economic is growth, finance rates, investment, employment, etc.
• Political is trade rules, competitive rules, stability, openness, freedom, etc.
• Technology is examined in terms of its usage patterns, potentials and possibilities. Actual technology forecasts are handled in Insight
• Social risk tolerance, familial ties, mobility, lifestyle, priorities, attitudes, etc.
• Legal is employment rules, contracts, consumer protection, corporate governance, etc.
• Environmental customer expectations, carbon, infrastructure, etc.
• Demographics cohorts, generations, frameworks / tribes
Constraints (not limits) – Feasible / ViableInsight – Looking Inward and Projecting
IP D
R&D F
• Ours• Licensed• Pooled• In process
IP / Patents
• Internal• External• In process
Delivery Capability
• Research & Development
• Academic & Industry relations
R&D
• Acquisitions• Joint ventures• Sponsorships
Financial Capability
Courtesy:
IP, patents
Insight MonitoringFrameworks & Scenarios
Innovation formarket challenges
Innovation for customer & delivery challenges
Relative innovation
Value challenges
Foresight Monitoring
Trends
Themes
Signals R&D
Standards, laws
Invest Execute
Plan ofinvestigation
Continualimprovement
Plan of intent
Plan of record
ResearchEducationConsulting
Training
Looking at the futureThe future is not predetermined or predictable and future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present.
- Adapted from "The Three 'Laws' of Futures“ by Ray Amara, 1981Prediction attempts to determine precise futures.
Foresight allows for ambiguity in possible futures.
Perfect information
Small Sample of Themes, Scenarios & Weak Signals
Consumerization
Freelance economy & Hollywood Model
Sharing economy
Utility computingCrowdfunding & P2P lending
Pervasivesimplification
Intelligent Everything
Technology does not cause change.It only enables, facilitates and
accelerates changes we already want to take
place.An old workforce,a new workforce
Regulations & cyber jurisprudence
Innovate to zero
Risk & security management
Local Manufacturing; 3D and 4D printing*
Small Sample of Themes, Scenarios & Weak Signals
*See photo credits on attributions slide
Augmented reality Open innovation & Crowdsourcing
Sustainability* Advanced genomics*
Quantified Self*
Cryptocurrencies*Circular economy*
Reputation economy
Advanced robotics*
Innovate to Zero
Macro Theme – Innovate to ZeroDriven by Mantras:∎Zero patience∎Zero price∎Zero failure∎Zero input∎Zero waste∎Zero accidents∎Zero breaches∎Zero limits on□Information□Depth
Graphic: Frost and Sullivan, “Mega Trends That Will Shape the Future of the World” By Krishna Srinivasan & Art Robbins, December 2010
…Zero Privacy?
So, again… does this relate to us???Let’s move on to INNOVATION…
Innovation is not invention
Invention is the process of taking capital and turning it into knowledge.
Innovation is the process of taking knowledge and turning it back into capital.
Innovation is the process that takes new ideas and implements them in a way that creates value by solving unmet needs.
Innovation Forms
New ideas + Forward-thinking + Feasible + Viable + Valuable
Innovation is the process that takes new ideas and implements them in a way that creates value by solving unmet needs.
Degrees of innovationBu
sine
ss m
odel
s an
d pr
oces
ses
Products and ServicesExisting
Exis
ting
New
New
ValueBreak-
through Innovation
DisruptiveInnovation
IncrementalInnovation
Break-through
Innovation
So, again… does this relate to us???Let’s move on to Communities…
BIGCONCEPT
Economics to Experiences
Translation:Infrastructure: :Experience
Leading to an Evolving Value Proposition for Cities
Market Innovation with New Business Models (customers)
Comprehensive Solutions
New Outcome Services
New Private / Public
BoundariesNew Markets New Ways to
Monetize
Sustaining Innovation for All Business Models (services)
Expanded Services Livability Creative Integrated Events
Efficiency Innovation for Core Business Model (infrastructure)
Cost of Living Safety Evidence based consensus
Citizen / Resident / Visitor Satisfaction
EVENTS EPISODESto
to PROACTIVEREACTIVE
{Transactions
}Relationships
Faster Better
Cheaper
New forms of
Value
Same Process
New ValueNew Process
Same Value
* www.aei-ideas.org/2014/08/fortune-500-firms-in-1955-vs-2014-89-are-gone-and-were-all-better-off-because-of-that-dynamic-creative-destruction** www.technologyreview.com/view/519226/technology-is-wiping-out-companies-faster-than-ever
Future of the enterprise:
OpexUse/RentEcosystemsOpenServices
CapexOwnershipEnterpriseProprietaryProducts
What do I do?
When you get home… 3 thoughts
Innovation Maturity
Technologyneeds focused
Business-challenge oriented
Executive sponsorshipof innovation
Innovationcatalyst team
Ideation methodsand idea management
Allocation of timefor employees to innovate
Innovation labs,foundries, andother facilities
Alternative laborand organizational models
Embrace open innovation
Formal organization of business partners
Accidental Intentional
Types of Crowdsourcing∎Searches□Specific ideas, wisdom, data, and lost and found items
∎Creative projects□Graphic design □Brainstorming for unconstrained ideas □Refinement of ideas
∎Challenges □Structured questions to create a deliverable
∎Project work□Microwork□Open source and competitive source
∎Funding□Venture capital from individuals
∎Crowdvoting, others…
Hackathons – How they workHow they work:
• Real-time and asynchronous
• Tangible frameworks or deliverables
• Focused or broad challenges
• Self-selecting teams
• From a few hours to several weeks
• Review gates
• Read outs and posting of results
http://www.managementexchange.com/
Innovation Maturity
Technologyneeds focused
Business-challenge oriented
Executive sponsorshipof innovation
Innovationcatalyst team
Ideation methodsand idea management
Allocation of timefor employees to innovate
Innovation labs,foundries, andother facilities
Alternative laborand organizational models
Embrace open innovation
Formal organization of business partners
Accidental Intentional
Management InnovationNew view of the enterprise: Socially-enabled enterprise operating in a digital business ecosystem∎Increased collaboration among business partners∎Experimentation with new approaches to traditional labor beyond outsourcing:□Hollywood Model□Crowdsourcing□Hackathons□Holacracy□Self-Selecting Teams□Expert Ecosystems□Networked Organizations□Microwork
Management
Organizations are experimenting with a variety of “Rapid resource reconfiguration models”
Final thoughts
Creating a world view and 9 questions
The World
Strategic Themes
Target Outcomes
Target Outcomes
…
Solutions
Solutions
Capabilities
Capabilities
Resources
Resources
Resources
Capabilities
Capabilities
StrategiesStrategicIntent Programs
Service Lines or Teams
EnterpriseThought Leadership –
What / Why / How Much / By When
Functional and/or Cross FunctionalPoV – When (sequence) / Where / Who / Way
(internal or external)
Offerings or Projects
Target Outcomes
Target Outcomes
SolutionsPoVs
PoVs
PoVs
PoVs
The 9 Questions Does this create value for your customers
Do you or could you do it betterthan anyone else
What you are required to for legal or regulatory reasons
ReceivedWisdom?
Tradition?
Physics?
What to Start,Stop, Do Differently?
Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today
Prediction is very difficult,especially if it’s about the future
Niels Bohr
THANKS!Any questions?You can find me at @stikeyoda & [email protected]
CREDITSSpecial thanks to all the people who made and released these awesome resources for free:∎ Presentation template by SlidesCarnival
Photo attributionsQuantified self: ”Quantified Self 2011” by Bytemarks is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Circular economy: “Go Circular!” by Zeronaut.be is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Advanced robotics: “OpenSource Robotic Arm” by oomlout is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Cryptocurrencies: “Image_2374” by BTC Keychain is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Sustainability: “Sustainability” by Kyle MacKenzie is licensed under CC BY 2.0
3D and 4D Printing: “MakerBot_ReplicatorZ18_ProdBild3” by Creative Tools is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Learning Styles: “babies at the blackboard” by Audio-luci-store-it is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Advanced Genomics: "Miraikan” by MIKI Yoshihito is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Augmented Reality: “Google Glass” by Matt Brown is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Samsung Smartwatch: “Samsung Galaxy Gear smartwatch” by Kārlis Dambrāns is licensed under CC BY 2.0
Oculus Rift: “Maxim Kapinus and Oculus Rift” by Sergey Galyonkin is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0
