A View from the Bridge - DOE Perspective

1 | U.S. Department of Energy energy.gov

Presentation/Event Title

David Sandalow Assistant Secretary Office of Policy and International Affairs


Transportation sector depends on oil

Natural Gas 3%

Biomass 3%

Petroleum 94%

U.S. Transportation Fuel Share (2009)


Oil dependence puts our economy at risk

Oil and Price Economic Growth, 1970-2009

Source: Greene, D.L. and N. I. Tishchishyna, Costs of Oil Dependence: A 2000 Update, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2000/152, Oak Ridge, TN, 2000, and data updates, 2010.

Five of the last five economic downturns have been preceded by oil prices increases


Production

Consumption

Mill

ion

barr

els

per

day

U.S. became a net oil importer in the 1950s

US imports around half of

its oil

Source: Energy Information Administration (top), CIA World Factbook (bottom)

US is the world’s largest oil importer

2009 Oil Imports (in bbl/day)

0.00

2,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

12,000,000.00

US China South Korea India Germany


China has a rapidly growing car market Millions passenger vehicles and trucks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

China 75m


The President’s Plan for Transportation


Cars

Trucks

15

20

25

30

35

40

new combined standard 35.5 mpg by 2016

Projected to reduce oil consumption by about 1.8 billion barrels over the

lifetime of vehicles sold in next 5 years

New Fuel Standards 54.5 mpg by 2025


Recovery Act - Battery and Electric Drive Award Distribution


Gasoline Hybrid - +40 % Better MPG Diesel Hybrid – Double MPG Plug-In Hybrid – 3 to 4 Times Better MPG Electric Vehicles – Battery Energy Storage

Displaces Oil: 1 Gallon Ethanol Replaces 0.7 gal of Gasoline

DOE’s Vehicle Technologies Program

Advanced Combustion Engines, Emission Controls, and Waste Energy Recovery

Biofuels/Fuel Blends

Electric and Hybrid Electric Vehicle Systems

Advanced Materials Lightweighting – 6% to

8% better MPG per 10% Reduction in Weight (Up to 50%)

PM

NOx

Current Efficiency 28% >45% cars, >55% trucks%

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

500

1500 1000

2000 2500

3000 5.0

3.0 4.0

2.0 1.0

0.0

O2 F

ract

ion

Soot

NOx


DOE Quadrennial Technology Review (QTR) Report (Sept 2011)

Just released by Secretary Chu

• Rigorous analysis of energy technology

• Recommends priorities in DOE’s energy-technology programs

www.energy.gov/qtr


“There is significant headroom for DOE to work on increasing conventional vehicle efficiency by improving the internal combustion engine, by lightweighting, and by improving the aerodynamics of heavy-duty vehicles.”

QTR Report - On Improving Vehicle Fuel Efficiency


“The performance, low cost, and fuel flexibility of ICEs makes it likely that they will continue to dominate the vehicle fleet for at least the next several decades. ICE improvements can also be applied to both hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and vehicles that use alternative hydrocarbon fuels. Within the vehicle efficiency portfolio, ICE improvements will receive the greatest emphasis, both because it contributes to light-duty and heavy-duty vehicle sectors and because DOE’s capabilities are well-aligned with the field’s technical needs.”

QTR Report - On Internal Combustion Engines


1 Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership: Third Report, NRC, 2010

Opportunity for Increased Internal Combustion Engine Efficiency

“…The internal combustion engine will be the dominant prime mover for light-duty vehicles for many years, probably decades …” NRC Report1

Advanced engines in conventional, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will maintain significant market share for several decades

Medium-duty and heavy-duty commercial vehicles

account for a quarter of the fuel used (mostly diesel fuel)

No obvious alternative to ICE for over-the road trucks in the foreseeable future

Increasing the efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs) is one of the most promising and cost-effective approaches to improving the fuel economy

of the U.S. vehicle fleet in the near- to mid-term.


Realizing Benefits of Vehicle Technology Takes Time

Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2010, EPA420-R-10-023, November 2010, p. 69

U.S. Vehicle Market • About 240 million vehicles

on the road • Approximately 11.5M new

cars & light trucks sold in 2010; the average was 15.7 M/yr from 2002-2007

• Hybrid vehicles at about 3% of sales

Vehicle Technology Penetration Years After Initial Significant Use

It has taken about 15 years for a technology to prove itself and reach 40 to 50% of production, and another 15 years to maximum market penetration.


•DOE R&D improved thermal efficiency of over-the-road heavy-duty diesel engines by over 4.5% .

• Benefits from heavy-duty vehicles alone (1995 – 2007) represent an over 60:1 return on investment (ROI) of government funds for heavy-duty combustion engine R&D - total savings of over $70B.

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Bra

ke T

herm

al E

ffici

ency

DOE research stretch goal

Current DOE R&D program

Demonstration engine Estimated demonstration engineActual commercial engineEstimated impact w/o DOE R&D*Start of more stringent emission regulations

Progress In Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Efficiency and Emissions

[Source: Retrospective Benefit-Cost Evaluation of U.S. DOE Vehicle Advanced Combustion Engine R&D Investments: Impacts of a Cluster of Energy Technologies, U.S. DOE, May 2010]


0

5

10

15

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Model Year

Ox

ide

s o

f N

itro

ge

n (

g/b

hp

-hr)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Pa

rticu

late

Ma

tter

PM

Steady StateTest

NOx + HC

Transient TestNOx(Unregulated)

PM (Unregulated)

NOx

NOx + HC

NOx

Urban Bus PM

2002

2007

NOx + NMHC

90%

90%

0

5

10

15

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Model Year

Ox

ide

s o

f N

itro

ge

n (

g/b

hp

-hr)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Pa

rticu

late

Ma

tter

PM

Steady StateTest

NOx + HC

Transient TestNOx(Unregulated)

PM (Unregulated)

NOx

NOx + HC

NOx

Urban Bus PM

2002

2007

NOx + NMHC

90%

90%

Historical Trend in Emissions from New Diesel Engines

“We have been working with

DOE on clean engine technology for the past 20 years. In fact, many of the technologies used in our

engines today were developed in partnership with the DOE, our national labs, universities

and other research institutions.“ – Tim Solso

Cummins Chairman and CEO June 2010

Progress In Heavy-Duty Diesel Engine Efficiency and Emissions


Government funded research

Internet

Teflon

Velcro


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A View from the Bridge - DOE Perspective