A Toolkit Approach to Modeling Sustainable Forestry

Maximize innovation and minimize re-invention

Andrew FallLandscape Systems Ecologist

School of Resource and Environmental Management

Simon Fraser University, Canada and

Gowlland Technologies Ltd.

Challenges for Landscape Management

large areas and long time frames complexity

• spatio-temporal feedback between pattern and process

many sources of uncertainty• spatial information, key processes, natural variability

competing values• cultural, conservation, resources, tourism• lack of optimal solutions

Yet, landscape managers must make decisions– land-use, sustainable resource management, endangered

species recovery, natural disturbance …

– Extent: ~2 million ha

– spatial data• forest cover, roads, .etc

• management zones

– non-spatial data• growth and yield

• little ecological data

• little natural disturbance data

District 19a District 19a LabradorLabrador

District 19a Issues: 20-year planDistrict 19a Issues: 20-year plan

• Sustainable forest managementNear pristine landscapeCo-management with Innu

• Key issues traditional values

(e.g. caribou) ecological integrity local economic development

Productive Forest (ha) * Mean volume/ha

Mean harvest age

Approach: Pan-Canadian+ TeamApproach: Pan-Canadian+ Team

BC

Québec

Leverage experience land-use planningmanagement

(timber, roads)disturbance successionwildlife scaling

stand/landscape

Caribou

Border Lks

WNMF

Finland

Incorporating Complexity

.Tree Stand Average Landscape

Ecosystem

Community

Population

Plant Level

Stand level forestry

PR

OC

ES

SE

S

SCALE

Increasing Complexity

.Tree Stand Average Landscape

Ecosystem

Community

Population

Plant Level

Stand level forestry

PR

OC

ES

SE

S

SCALE

Increasing Complexity

A “toolkit” approach to landscape modelling

Different models are best applied at different scales and for addressing different questions

• Static - GIS, inventory of current conditions

• Dynamic - changes due to succession, management, natural disturbance

• Stand scale - fine-scale processes, growth and yield

• Landscape - timber supply, habitat supply, pattern analysis

Need ways to links models and tools of different kinds

Questions and Scenarios

Results

All Participants

Conceptual Models

Analysis

Domain Experts

Core Team Simulation

Experiments

Implemented Models

Collaborative Landscape AnalysisCollaborative Landscape Analysis

Model “Toolkit” Approach

• Flexible association of models and model-building tools

• Coupled suite of relevant indicators reflecting values (ecological and social)

• Goal is the rapid assembly and development of models to address specific questions

Social System

Processes

Model Tools

Assessment

Succession Growth and Yield Natural Disturbances Habitat selection

SORTIE (fine-scale) LANDIS (broad-scale)

BAP Toolbox

• Coarse Filter Indicators

• Fine Filter Indicators Caribou Habitat

Harvest scheduling Silvicultural treatments Road networking

PATCHWORKS Woodstock-Stanley Real Options

Annual Allowable Cut Costs/Benefits Job opportunities

Acceptability

Integrative Tools

SELES

Values & Perceptions Traditional Use Recreational Quality Caribou Populations

Access to Forests Maximum Local Job Creation

Ecological System

Economic System

What processes do

we model?

What modeling tools do

we apply?

What are the indicators success?

Available Data

Desire for SFM

SELES: Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator

A general tool for building models of landscape dynamics

– a language for specifying models of landscape dynamics

and

– a simulation engine for running these models

SELES: paradigm

share knowledge to build capacity• SELES is free

• models built in SELES are transparent

• courses are periodically given

• models built in SELES should be shared

maximize innovation and minimize re-invention

Sustainable Forest Management Planning in

Labrador/Nitassinan

District 19a of Labrador

SELES & SORTIE/BC

LANDIS

SORTIE/boreal

BAP & HSI

VLM/SELES

FINLANDIS

Landscape Scale ObjectivesLandscape Scale Objectives

• scenarios: project landscape conditions

– integrate processes: spatial timber harvesting, fire, succession

– timber supply analysis

• scale: vertical and horizontal

– use results from stand-level and other landscape scale analyses

• indicators: produce ecological / timber indicators

– generate spatial time series: pipelining

– to assess spatial patterns of habitat

Conceptual Model

Labrador District 19a SystemLabrador District 19a System

AlternativeManagementScenarios

Fire

Succession

SilvicultureTimberSupply

HarvestPatterns

RoadBuilding

SeedDispersal

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

Timber Sales Tourism

Local J obs

Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production

AestheticsTraditional Use

Labrador District 19a SystemLabrador District 19a System

AlternativeManagementScenarios

Fire

Succession

SilvicultureTimberSupply

HarvestPatterns

RoadBuilding

SeedDispersal

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

Timber Sales Tourism

Local J obs

Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production

AestheticsTraditional Use

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

I ndicators Reflecting Ecological, Economic, and Social Values

Timber Sales Tourism

Local J obs

Caribou HabitatEcological I ntegrityBerry Production

AestheticsTraditional Use

Harvesting Sub-Model• Strategic level

– spatial timber supply

– aim to capture current policy

• Spatial– spatial blocks

– roading

Road DevelopmentRoad Development

Road “Activity Levels”Road “Activity Levels”– Accumulate “local volume harvested”

upstream of each segment

– Estimate of activity level

Model Integration

Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)

Vertical Pipelining

different scales)

Growth & Yield

Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)

Lateral Pipelining(comparable scales)

Vertical Pipelining

different scales)

Individual Tree

StandYield

CurvesYield

Projection

D19aLM(SELES)D19aLM(SELES)

Growth & Yield

(Canadian

FBP

LANDIS

SpreadRates

(Canadian

FBP

LANDIS

SpreadRates

SORTIESORTIE

Su

cc

es

sio

n,

Gro

wth

& Y

ield

Nei

ghbo

rhoo

d Ef

fect

s

Long

-dis

tanc

e D

ispe

rsal

& D

istu

rban

ce

Nei

ghbo

rhoo

d Ef

fect

s

Long

-dis

tanc

e D

ispe

rsal

& D

istu

rban

ce

Harvest Patterns

Fire Regime

Harvest Patterns

Fire Regime

Landscape

Patchworks

EconomicOptimization

Ecological ProcessPatchworks

EconomicOptimization

Ecological Process

Co

nd

itio

ns

How to link tools: meta-modellingHow to link tools: meta-modelling

• file transfer

– non-spatial files

– spatial time-series

• parameters and scenario definition

• model embedding

• invocation

pipelining,loose coupling

tight coupling

How to make an effective toolkitHow to make an effective toolkit

• people

tools used reflect skills of team and capacity building goals

• systems perspective

scale, complexity

• tool selection

a federation of models (cooperation) not competition