11
Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border Area Perspective Po Sheng Ko, 1 Cheng Chung Wu , 2 Ying Shih Mai, 3 and Zhongrong Xu 4 1 Department of Wealth and Taxation Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan 2 Department of Finance Suqian College, Suqian, Jiangsu, China 3 Department of International Business, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan 4 Department of Marketing, Suqian College, Suqian, Jiangsu, China Correspondence should be addressed to Cheng Chung Wu; [email protected] Received 24 June 2019; Accepted 30 August 2019; Published 29 October 2019 Guest Editor: Benjamin M. Tabak Copyright © 2019 Po Sheng Ko et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. At present, the enhancement of China’s comprehensive national strength, stable currency policy, and the new round of opening- up strategy layout have provided opportunities for the financial development in border areas, especially for the RMB in- ternationalization advancement in border areas, while the lagging financial system construction in current border areas also challenges its RMB internationalization. Based on Friedman’s monetary demand theory (1970), the thesis has combined the periodical characteristics and selected the representative Yunnan province in the border areas as the object, taking into overall consideration the two paths of geography and function for RMB internationalization in border areas, so as to build the two- dimensional path theory framework of RMB internationalization from a border area perspective. In view of the above, a panel econometric regression model is built to estimate the factors influencing RMB internationalization path in Yunnan province. e results show that the process of opening up to the outside world in Yunnan province is its major driving force for RMB in- ternationalization, while the great fluctuation of price level tends to hinder the process advancement and such possible impact of overall revenue on RMB internationalization development as the reginal disparity. 1. Introduction e ever-increasing comprehensive national strength of China, gradual expansion of RMB circulation scale, and steady promotion of RMB international status have accelerated RMB internationalization. As of the end of June 2015, RMB cross-border trade settlement has reached the cumulative amount of 14.6 trillion and the direct investment of RMB has come to the cumulative amount of 2.2 trillion, with RMB exchange reaching 3.2 trillion and global market share of RMB international payment accounting for 2.18%, rising up to no. 5. In addition to the increasing RMB in- ternationalization scale, with the deepening of the major strategy of “One Belt and One Road,” the border areas (China’s border areas include nine provinces as Yunnan, Guangxi, Tibet, Xinjiang, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) of China have been transformed from the open “end” to open “front.” Various policies, es- pecially financial policies, such as financial comprehensive reform pilot area construction in Yunnan and Guangxi border areas, regional open financial system construction in three provinces in Northeast China, and regional financial innovation district construction in Xinjiang Horgos, have promoted the continuous acceleration of RMB regional internationalization in border areas. Relying on its regional, resource, and humanitarian advantages, Yunnan province has taken the lead in its distinctive RMB internationalization path as compared with other border provinces and regions. Yunnan province established “estuary mode” for border trade bank settlement as early as 1994 and set a precedent of China’s RMB cash exit and entry dispatching business for border trade settlement in 2003; then in 2004, it received the Hindawi Complexity Volume 2019, Article ID 2834894, 10 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2834894

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Page 1: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

Research ArticleA Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based onBorder Area Perspective

Po Sheng Ko1 Cheng Chung Wu 2 Ying Shih Mai3 and Zhongrong Xu4

1Department of Wealth and Taxation Management National Kaohsiung University of Science and TechnologyKaohsiung Taiwan2Department of Finance Suqian College Suqian Jiangsu China3Department of International Business National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology Kaohsiung Taiwan4Department of Marketing Suqian College Suqian Jiangsu China

Correspondence should be addressed to Cheng Chung Wu wu_0110yahoocomtw

Received 24 June 2019 Accepted 30 August 2019 Published 29 October 2019

Guest Editor Benjamin M Tabak

Copyright copy 2019 Po Sheng Ko et al is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution Licensewhich permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properly cited

At present the enhancement of Chinarsquos comprehensive national strength stable currency policy and the new round of opening-up strategy layout have provided opportunities for the nancial development in border areas especially for the RMB in-ternationalization advancement in border areas while the lagging nancial system construction in current border areas alsochallenges its RMB internationalization Based on Friedmanrsquos monetary demand theory (1970) the thesis has combined theperiodical characteristics and selected the representative Yunnan province in the border areas as the object taking into overallconsideration the two paths of geography and function for RMB internationalization in border areas so as to build the two-dimensional path theory framework of RMB internationalization from a border area perspective In view of the above a paneleconometric regression model is built to estimate the factors inuencing RMB internationalization path in Yunnan province eresults show that the process of opening up to the outside world in Yunnan province is its major driving force for RMB in-ternationalization while the great uctuation of price level tends to hinder the process advancement and such possible impact ofoverall revenue on RMB internationalization development as the reginal disparity

1 Introduction

e ever-increasing comprehensive national strength ofChina gradual expansion of RMB circulation scale andsteady promotion of RMB international status haveaccelerated RMB internationalization As of the end of June2015 RMB cross-border trade settlement has reached thecumulative amount of 146 trillion and the direct investmentof RMB has come to the cumulative amount of 22 trillionwith RMB exchange reaching 32 trillion and global marketshare of RMB international payment accounting for 218rising up to no 5 In addition to the increasing RMB in-ternationalization scale with the deepening of the majorstrategy of ldquoOne Belt and One Roadrdquo the border areas(Chinarsquos border areas include nine provinces as YunnanGuangxi Tibet Xinjiang Gansu Inner Mongolia Liaoning

Jilin and Heilongjiang) of China have been transformedfrom the open ldquoendrdquo to open ldquofrontrdquo Various policies es-pecially nancial policies such as nancial comprehensivereform pilot area construction in Yunnan and Guangxiborder areas regional open nancial system construction inthree provinces in Northeast China and regional nancialinnovation district construction in Xinjiang Horgos havepromoted the continuous acceleration of RMB regionalinternationalization in border areas Relying on its regionalresource and humanitarian advantages Yunnan provincehas taken the lead in its distinctive RMB internationalizationpath as compared with other border provinces and regionsYunnan province established ldquoestuary moderdquo for bordertrade bank settlement as early as 1994 and set a precedent ofChinarsquos RMB cash exit and entry dispatching business forborder trade settlement in 2003 then in 2004 it received the

HindawiComplexityVolume 2019 Article ID 2834894 10 pageshttpsdoiorg10115520192834894

approval of enjoying tax refund policy in small-scale bordertrade RMB settlement with neighboring countries and triedout RMB settlement verification system for general trade in2005 conducting pilot RMB settlement for goods trade withASEAN in 2008 In 2010 Yunnan province launched pilotcross-border RMB settlement and obtained the approval offinancial comprehensive reform pilot area construction in2013 After over twenty years of development the promotionof RMB internationalization development in Yunnanprovince has gradually converted from single drive byborder trade to multicore drive by various cross-borderbusinesses with financial organization system constructionexpanded to multiple levels and financial infrastructurefacilities constantly improved

At present Chinarsquos border areas have become themeeting point of various policy plannings which is con-ducive to the promotion of RMB internationalization inborder areas while all provinces in border areas have laggedbehind for a long time whether in economic strength orsocial development as compared with other provinces inChina and such gap exerts great influence in RMB in-ternationalization process in the area According to statis-tics the cross-border RMB business settlement amount inChinarsquos border areas was lower than the national averagelevel from 2011 to 2014 with the gap of about 254meanwhile the growth rate of cross-border RMB businesssettlement in Chinarsquos border areas also lagged behind theaverage level with an annual 7040 on average left behindIn further analysis from 2011 to 2014 the cross-border RMBbusiness settlement amount in Yunnan province had beengrowing at an average annual rate of 4575 ranking no 5 inChinarsquos border areas as one of the lowest-ranked locations

Since RMB internationalization process in Chinarsquosborder areas lags behind the national average level in bothscale and growth rate during the important period ofopportunities for openness in Chinarsquos border areas cur-rently it is worth deeply discussing how to speed up thedevelopment process of RMB internationalization in borderareas so as to promote the overall improvement of RMBinternationalization level and the balanced developmentwithin the region 0e thesis is firstly based on literature ofRMB internationalization path and monetary demandtheory and builds the theoretical framework of RMB in-ternationalization analysis in border areas then selects therepresentative Yunnan province for empirical analysis andfinally draws the conclusion and puts forward the RMBinternationalization development path in border areas forreference

2 Literature Review

21 Evolution Mode of RMB Internationalization Path

211 Monetary Function Path of RMB InternationalizationMonetary function path of RMB internationalization refersto the analysis of the phased evolution for such fourfunctions of international currency as trade settlementinvestment currency credit financing and reserve currencyAs to trade settlement path of RMB internationalization

some scholars at home and abroad think that the tradesettlement scale determines RMB internationalization pathat the present stage and RMB settlement scale for goodstrade is higher than that for service trade and trade of othercurrent accounts in terms of structure [1 2] As regardsinvestment currency and credit financing paths for RMBinternationalization Frankel [3] considers that the re-alization of RMB internationalization investment and fi-nancing paths in China at present mainly rely on theoffshore market for capital flow in particular Hong Kongoffshore market plays an important role Lyratzakis [4] offersan examination of the main economic and political de-terminants of Renminbi internationalization both at thedomestic and international levels 0e analysis suggests thatdomestic economic determinants such as capital accountopenness financial market development and interest rateexchange rate liberalization must be seen as necessaryconditions for internationalization Various domestic po-litical actors determine the success of internationaliza-tion indirectly by affecting the implementation of thenecessary economic reforms and conditions It is furtherargued that even though several domestic economic andpolitical conditions are necessary for internationalizationthey are not a priori sufficient as international economicand political factors also play an important role in theinternationalization process 0rough this analysis thepaper ultimately illustrates that the issue of RMB in-ternationalization needs to be understood and analyzedwithin a political economy context rather than within apurely economic one

212 Regional Evolution Path of RMB InternationalizationMost scholars at home and abroad think that the re-gional evolution path of RMB internationalization shouldbe as East Asianization and Southeast Asianization⟶Asianization⟶ internationalization As far as ldquoEastAsianization and Southeast Asianizationrdquo are concernedYang [5] carries out regression analysis in use of the cur-rency data for the main countries in ASEAN and RMB datafrom 2000 to 2010 through establishing econometrics modeland found that the status of dollar had gradually declined inldquocurrency anchorrdquo of main countries in ASEAN since theappreciation of RMB in 2005 with the position of RMB inASEAN rising continuously and the ldquocurrency anchorrdquo ofmain countries in ASEAN adjusted to RMB Japanese Yenand Euro In terms of ldquoAsianizationrdquo Peng et al [6] applySYRADF panel unit root test with Fourier transform toconduct empirical analysis of the economy convergence forthe major 13 countries in Asia and further study the pos-sibility for RMB to become the regional key currency 0eresults show that Japanese Yen remains the currency oc-cupying an important position in Asia and RMB presentsincreasing impact in Asia region with great potential forbecoming the regional key currency According to Park [7]there are two options that could be taken in the followingregional approach One is creating an ASEAN+New 3 (theChinese Mainland Hong Kong and Taiwan) RMB bloc andthe other is liberalizing Chinarsquos financial industries and

2 Complexity

internationalizing the RMB by playing a leading role in EastAsiarsquos economic integration within the framework ofASEAN+3 0is paper concludes that the latter is a morerealistic and effective approach for China

22 Research on RMB Internationalization in Chinarsquos BorderAreas Tang et al [8] conduct research on RMB regionalinternationalization path in Guangxi propose cross-bordersettlement of RMB and mutual financial pilot points andestablish offshore RMB investment return project libraryand the development path for provincial RMB ldquoasset poolrdquo0e research group of Xinjiang Financial Society [9] fromthe perspective of domestic and foreign regional layout putsforward the path in which Kazakhstan is chosen as the firstcountry for promoting RMB regionalization beyond theborder and Sino-Kazakhstan Economic and Trade Co-operation Center in Horgos is regarded as the pilot point forRMB regionalization in China at the same time In view ofsuch problems as lagged financial services in Inner Mongoliaand Mongolia and lagged adjustment of dollar and RMBfund position in RMB account settlement Wang [10] raisesthe path of expanding RMB settlement business in bordertrade and strengthening financial cooperation with sur-rounding countries

At present the literature about RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan province mainly includes thefeasibility of implementation obstacles suggestions fordevelopment and existing risks Liu [11] considers that thefeasibility of implementation for RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan includes the following thefirst is the high degree of acceptance large stock and widedistribution in neighboring countries the second is theearly cross-border settlement obvious geographic advan-tages and numerous participating industries and countriesand the third is the early small currency conversion anddistinctive characteristics Sun [12] thinks that there stillexist such problems in promoting RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan as impeded clearing systemunsound backflow channels cumbersome process for casecross-border dispatching and currency conversion to befurther improved Based on the above situation he putsforward the suggestions of strengthening the financialcooperation with neighboring countries researching anddeveloping RMB cash backflow mechanism and encour-aging provincial financial institutions to go out Ding et al[13] conducts empirical analysis of the factors influencingRMB settlement in cross-border trade through establishingeconometrics model including such factors as local totaloutput local currency supply and national identity of tradetarget country 0e study by Wu and Tang [14] exploreswhat factors influence RMB internationalization in theprocess of the Belt and Road It firstly makes a summary ofthe important influencing factors then sets up a semi-logarithmic model to quantitatively analyze these factorsand finally puts forward suggestions for the steady devel-opment of RMB internationalization 0rough literaturereview it is found that since the Belt and Road initiative wasput forward RMB has been used more extensively in the

surrounding countries and regions 0rough quantitativeresearch it is found that with Chinarsquos GDP as a share ofworld GDP the scale of imports and exports of goods andservices and economic freedom are all positively related tothe internationalization of RMB the inflation rate and thevolatility of real effective exchange rate are negatively re-lated to it

23 Summary of Literature Review 0e research on thetheory of Chinarsquos RMB internationalization path in existingliterature can be divided into two angles on one hand RMBinternationalization mainly concerns trade settlementsupplemented by offshore market with currency swap as thecomplement on the other hand RMB internationaliza-tion follows ldquoEast Asianization and Southeast Asianization⟶Asianizationrdquo and provides reference for establishment ofthe theoretical framework for RMB internationalization pathbased on Chinarsquos border area perspective in the thesis In ad-dition research in the literature on the status quo of promotingRMB internationalization process in Chinarsquos border area alsolays a certain foundation for the research in the thesis Howeverthe existing literature presents mismatching of research situa-tions between RMB internationalization path at national leveland RMB internationalization path at border area level withrelative lagging of research for border areas 0erefore it is inurgent need of building the analysis framework of RMB in-ternationalization path in border area in combination with thepractical conditions

0ese new data sources are particularly relevant in theabsence of reliable data on economic outcomes such astracking and setting poverty targets in developing countries[15] Jean et al [16] trained neural networks to predict localeconomic outcomes based on satellite data from five Africancountries Machine learning can also draw economic fore-casts from large-scale network data for example Blumen-stock et al [17] use mobile data to measure wealth enablingthem to quantify poverty in Rwanda at the individual levelImage recognition can certainly be used outside of satellitedata and localized predictions of economic outcomes arerelevant outside developing countries

3 Theoretical Framework

31 ResearchHypothesis ofRMB InternationalizationPath fromthe Border Area Perspective Effectively internationalizationof yuan has been pursued along two interrelated tracks [18]One track focuses on cultivating use of the currency inforeign trade At the official level swap agreements havebeen arranged with an increasing number of foreign centralbanks facilitating expanded use of the RMB as a means ofpayment [19] By mid-2016 some three dozen agreementshad been signed totaling more than RMB 33 trillion(C$480 billion) At the private level regulations have beengradually eased to permit more import and export trans-actions to be settled in yuan bypassing traditional in-voicing currencies like the dollar 0e second track focuseson use of the RMB in international finance as a store ofvalue

Complexity 3

Currently the research theory of evolution mode forRMB internationalization path mainly focuses on the na-tional level and seldom establishes the research analysisframework for RMB internationalization path reflectinggeographical features in terms of a certain region For thisreason the thesis has integrated Figure 1 and proposed theresearch hypothesis of RMB internationalization path inconformity with the characteristics of border areas

0e first is the regional path hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization from the border area perspective Learningfrom the regional evolution path theory of ldquosurroundingusage⟶ regionalization⟶ internationalizationrdquo at thenational level for RMB internationalization in considerationof the differences between national path and border area pathfor RMB internationalization it is proposed that the regionalevolution path for border areas should follow the hypothesisof border-oriented first and then internationalization so as toreflect the location characteristics of the border areas inconnection with the surrounding countries

0e second is the functional path hypothesis of RMBinternationalization from the border area perspectiveLearning from the functional evolution path theory of ldquotradesettlement⟶ investment currency⟶ credit finan-cing⟶ reserve currencyrdquo at the national level for RMBinternationalization in consideration of the differencesbetween national path and border area path for RMB in-ternationalization the hypothesis mainly focusing on suchthree functions as trade settlement investment currencyand credit financing has been put forward from the borderarea perspective

32 3eoretical Model of RMB Internationalization Pathfrom the Border Area Perspective Friedman [20] presentsmoney demand function from the perspective of a countryrsquosmonetary demand as follows

M

P f y w rm rb re

1P

dP

dt u1113888 1113889 (1)

In the function y refers to actual income w means theproportion of nonhuman wealth in total wealth (namelythe proportion of income from property in total income)rm represents the expected nominal yield of currency rbmeans the expected nominal yield of term bond re refersto the expected nominal yield of stock (1P)(dPdt)

means the expected change rate of commodity price(namely reflecting inflation) and u stands for non-revenue factor

According to money demand function the main ideas ofFriedmanrsquos monetary demand theory can be summarized asthe following aspects firstly in the economic society moneyis a kind of asset and a form of holding wealth by people thesecond is about the total amount of wealth held by people invarious forms and the difference in individual total wealthtends to influence hisher demand for money the third isabout the anticipated returns of wealth in all forms In theeconomic society people hold the total wealth in differentforms fourthly the function can not only indicate themonetary demand of the ultimate wealth owner but also

represent the aggregate demand for a countryrsquos money fromthe whole international community Based on the aboveideas the thesis draws on the money demand function(formula (1)) established by Friedman [20] in compre-hensive consideration of the two-dimensional hypotheses inaccordance with regional and functional paths in borderareas and builds the following theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path for border areas

Mi yi( 1113857β1 middot Xi( 1113857

β2 middot Ri( 1113857β3 middot

1Pi

dPi

dt1113888 1113889

β4middot ui (2)

In the modelMi refers to the RMB demand in the bordercountry or border area i yi means the overall revenue in theborder area i Xi indicates the opening-up scale of the borderarea i mainly reflecting the monetary function Ri shows thewealth conditions in the border area i (1Pi)(dPidt)

represents the price change in the border area i ui refers tothe impact of other factors on the RMB demand in theborder area i β1 β2 β3 and β4 respectively represent theinfluence coefficient of various factors on the RMB demandin the border area i

According to the above theoretical model the mainpoints of RMB internationalization path theory from theborder area perspective proposed in the thesis include thefollowing aspects firstly the demand for RMB in the borderareas is affected by the opening-up scale of the regionnamely the functional path of foreign trade investmentcurrency and credit financing secondly the demand forRMB in the border areas is influenced by the overall incomewealth of residents and enterprises and price fluctuation inthe region thirdly the regional characteristics of the borderarea and nonborder area are differentiated by the subscript iin the model

33 Indicator System and Research Object

331 Indicator System and Research Hypothesis In accor-dance with the selection of influencing factors for RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas the indicator systemof influencing factors for RMB internationalization path inborder areas has been established as shown in Table 1

Regional path

RMB internationalization path from the border area perspective

Functional path

Border-oriented

Internationalization

+

+

Trade settlement

Investment currency

Credit financing

Figure 1 Two-dimensional research hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization path from the border area perspective

4 Complexity

0e research hypotheses in five aspects have been putforward in view of the above indicator system

H1 the local GDP in border areas presents thepositive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH2 the foreign trade volume in border areas presentsthe positive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH3 the foreign investment amount in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areasH4 the balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the demandfor RMB in border areasH5 consumer price index in border areas presents thenegative correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areas

332 Research Object 0e research object of the thesismainly refers to Yunnan province in China Yunnanprovince covers a total area of about 390 thousand squarekilometers and accounts for 411 of the countryrsquos territoryranking no 8 among the provincial administrative regionsnationwide in terms of the area 0e boundary line ofYunnan province is 4060 kilometers bordering on suchthree countries as Burma Laos and Vietnam As to theconcrete division on one hand Yunnan province was ap-proved by China to carry out cross-border RMB settlementpilot work in 2011 and at the end of 2015 only the data forthe past five years could be collected for the econometricmodel with five explanatory variables the regression resultswill be of significance with theminimum samples of freedomat 15 For this purpose the thesis takes 16 cities and pre-fectures in Yunnan province into consideration from thecross-section angle to build the panel econometric model inthis way the sample size increases to 80 meeting the re-quirements of regression On the other hand in order toshow the innovativeness of the thesis and reveal the regionalheterogeneity Yunnan province is divided into such threeregions as southern Yunnan central Yunnan and northernYunnan so as to reflect the differences of RMB in-ternationalization path in different regions see Table 2 forthe detailed division

34 Econometric Model and Data Specification

341 Econometric Model Take the logarithm at both sides ofthe theoretical model (formula (2)) equation and establish thefollowing four panel data econometric models of influencingfactors for RMB internationalization in Yunnan province incombination with the specific secondary indicator of theinfluencing factors for RMB internationalization path in theselected border area

ln kjit c + α1 middot ln gdpit + α2 ln tradit + α3 ln fdiit+ α4 ln finait + α5 ln cpiit + μit

(3)

ln kj1t c1 + β1 middot ln gdp1t + β2 ln trad1t + β3 ln fdi1t

+ β4 ln fina1t + β5 ln cpi1t + μ1t(4)

ln kj2t c2 + c1 middot ln gdp2t + c2 ln trad2t + c3 ln fdi2t

+ c4 ln fina2t + c5 ln cpi2t + μ2t(5)

ln kj3t c3 + δ1 middot ln gdp3t + δ2 ln trad3t + δ3 ln fdi3t

+ δ4 ln fina3t + δ5 ln cpi3t + μ3t(6)

In the above four equations equation (3) refers to theoverall panel data econometric model for all the 16 cities andprefectures in Yunnan province equations (4)ndash(6) indicatethe panel data econometric models for the three regions ofsouthern Yunnan central Yunnan and northern Yunnan inYunnan province c represents the constant term of themodel u represents the random disturbance term of themodel α β c and σ show the estimated parameters beforeall explanatory variables

342 Data Specification Combine the specific indicatorcategory in the above influencing factor indicator system forRMB internationalization path of Yunnan province andsearch the department concerned and relevant statisticalyearbook so as to collect and sort the panel data of influ-encing factor indicator from 2011 to 2015 0e data forvarious indicators come fromKunming central subbranch ofthe Peoplersquos Bank of China statistical yearbook of Yunnanprovince Chinarsquos regional economic statistical yearbookand Yunnan survey yearbook On the basis of various in-dicator data collected and sorted with the purpose of re-ducing the impact of absolute data dimension on regressionresults as well as the fluctuation range of the data take the

Table 1 Indicator system of influencing factors for RMB internationalization path in border areas

First class indicators Second class indicatorsCorrelation Variable type

Name Code Name CodeDemand for RMB M Cross-border RMB business settlement amount kj mdash Explained variableOverall revenue Y Local GDP gdp Positive correlation

Explanatoryvariable

Opening-up scale X Total volume of foreign trade trad Positive correlationForeign direct investment amount fdi Positive correlation

Wealth conditions R Balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions fina Positive correlation

Price change (1P)(dPdt) Consumer price index cpi Negative correlation

Complexity 5

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

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Page 2: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

approval of enjoying tax refund policy in small-scale bordertrade RMB settlement with neighboring countries and triedout RMB settlement verification system for general trade in2005 conducting pilot RMB settlement for goods trade withASEAN in 2008 In 2010 Yunnan province launched pilotcross-border RMB settlement and obtained the approval offinancial comprehensive reform pilot area construction in2013 After over twenty years of development the promotionof RMB internationalization development in Yunnanprovince has gradually converted from single drive byborder trade to multicore drive by various cross-borderbusinesses with financial organization system constructionexpanded to multiple levels and financial infrastructurefacilities constantly improved

At present Chinarsquos border areas have become themeeting point of various policy plannings which is con-ducive to the promotion of RMB internationalization inborder areas while all provinces in border areas have laggedbehind for a long time whether in economic strength orsocial development as compared with other provinces inChina and such gap exerts great influence in RMB in-ternationalization process in the area According to statis-tics the cross-border RMB business settlement amount inChinarsquos border areas was lower than the national averagelevel from 2011 to 2014 with the gap of about 254meanwhile the growth rate of cross-border RMB businesssettlement in Chinarsquos border areas also lagged behind theaverage level with an annual 7040 on average left behindIn further analysis from 2011 to 2014 the cross-border RMBbusiness settlement amount in Yunnan province had beengrowing at an average annual rate of 4575 ranking no 5 inChinarsquos border areas as one of the lowest-ranked locations

Since RMB internationalization process in Chinarsquosborder areas lags behind the national average level in bothscale and growth rate during the important period ofopportunities for openness in Chinarsquos border areas cur-rently it is worth deeply discussing how to speed up thedevelopment process of RMB internationalization in borderareas so as to promote the overall improvement of RMBinternationalization level and the balanced developmentwithin the region 0e thesis is firstly based on literature ofRMB internationalization path and monetary demandtheory and builds the theoretical framework of RMB in-ternationalization analysis in border areas then selects therepresentative Yunnan province for empirical analysis andfinally draws the conclusion and puts forward the RMBinternationalization development path in border areas forreference

2 Literature Review

21 Evolution Mode of RMB Internationalization Path

211 Monetary Function Path of RMB InternationalizationMonetary function path of RMB internationalization refersto the analysis of the phased evolution for such fourfunctions of international currency as trade settlementinvestment currency credit financing and reserve currencyAs to trade settlement path of RMB internationalization

some scholars at home and abroad think that the tradesettlement scale determines RMB internationalization pathat the present stage and RMB settlement scale for goodstrade is higher than that for service trade and trade of othercurrent accounts in terms of structure [1 2] As regardsinvestment currency and credit financing paths for RMBinternationalization Frankel [3] considers that the re-alization of RMB internationalization investment and fi-nancing paths in China at present mainly rely on theoffshore market for capital flow in particular Hong Kongoffshore market plays an important role Lyratzakis [4] offersan examination of the main economic and political de-terminants of Renminbi internationalization both at thedomestic and international levels 0e analysis suggests thatdomestic economic determinants such as capital accountopenness financial market development and interest rateexchange rate liberalization must be seen as necessaryconditions for internationalization Various domestic po-litical actors determine the success of internationaliza-tion indirectly by affecting the implementation of thenecessary economic reforms and conditions It is furtherargued that even though several domestic economic andpolitical conditions are necessary for internationalizationthey are not a priori sufficient as international economicand political factors also play an important role in theinternationalization process 0rough this analysis thepaper ultimately illustrates that the issue of RMB in-ternationalization needs to be understood and analyzedwithin a political economy context rather than within apurely economic one

212 Regional Evolution Path of RMB InternationalizationMost scholars at home and abroad think that the re-gional evolution path of RMB internationalization shouldbe as East Asianization and Southeast Asianization⟶Asianization⟶ internationalization As far as ldquoEastAsianization and Southeast Asianizationrdquo are concernedYang [5] carries out regression analysis in use of the cur-rency data for the main countries in ASEAN and RMB datafrom 2000 to 2010 through establishing econometrics modeland found that the status of dollar had gradually declined inldquocurrency anchorrdquo of main countries in ASEAN since theappreciation of RMB in 2005 with the position of RMB inASEAN rising continuously and the ldquocurrency anchorrdquo ofmain countries in ASEAN adjusted to RMB Japanese Yenand Euro In terms of ldquoAsianizationrdquo Peng et al [6] applySYRADF panel unit root test with Fourier transform toconduct empirical analysis of the economy convergence forthe major 13 countries in Asia and further study the pos-sibility for RMB to become the regional key currency 0eresults show that Japanese Yen remains the currency oc-cupying an important position in Asia and RMB presentsincreasing impact in Asia region with great potential forbecoming the regional key currency According to Park [7]there are two options that could be taken in the followingregional approach One is creating an ASEAN+New 3 (theChinese Mainland Hong Kong and Taiwan) RMB bloc andthe other is liberalizing Chinarsquos financial industries and

2 Complexity

internationalizing the RMB by playing a leading role in EastAsiarsquos economic integration within the framework ofASEAN+3 0is paper concludes that the latter is a morerealistic and effective approach for China

22 Research on RMB Internationalization in Chinarsquos BorderAreas Tang et al [8] conduct research on RMB regionalinternationalization path in Guangxi propose cross-bordersettlement of RMB and mutual financial pilot points andestablish offshore RMB investment return project libraryand the development path for provincial RMB ldquoasset poolrdquo0e research group of Xinjiang Financial Society [9] fromthe perspective of domestic and foreign regional layout putsforward the path in which Kazakhstan is chosen as the firstcountry for promoting RMB regionalization beyond theborder and Sino-Kazakhstan Economic and Trade Co-operation Center in Horgos is regarded as the pilot point forRMB regionalization in China at the same time In view ofsuch problems as lagged financial services in Inner Mongoliaand Mongolia and lagged adjustment of dollar and RMBfund position in RMB account settlement Wang [10] raisesthe path of expanding RMB settlement business in bordertrade and strengthening financial cooperation with sur-rounding countries

At present the literature about RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan province mainly includes thefeasibility of implementation obstacles suggestions fordevelopment and existing risks Liu [11] considers that thefeasibility of implementation for RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan includes the following thefirst is the high degree of acceptance large stock and widedistribution in neighboring countries the second is theearly cross-border settlement obvious geographic advan-tages and numerous participating industries and countriesand the third is the early small currency conversion anddistinctive characteristics Sun [12] thinks that there stillexist such problems in promoting RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan as impeded clearing systemunsound backflow channels cumbersome process for casecross-border dispatching and currency conversion to befurther improved Based on the above situation he putsforward the suggestions of strengthening the financialcooperation with neighboring countries researching anddeveloping RMB cash backflow mechanism and encour-aging provincial financial institutions to go out Ding et al[13] conducts empirical analysis of the factors influencingRMB settlement in cross-border trade through establishingeconometrics model including such factors as local totaloutput local currency supply and national identity of tradetarget country 0e study by Wu and Tang [14] exploreswhat factors influence RMB internationalization in theprocess of the Belt and Road It firstly makes a summary ofthe important influencing factors then sets up a semi-logarithmic model to quantitatively analyze these factorsand finally puts forward suggestions for the steady devel-opment of RMB internationalization 0rough literaturereview it is found that since the Belt and Road initiative wasput forward RMB has been used more extensively in the

surrounding countries and regions 0rough quantitativeresearch it is found that with Chinarsquos GDP as a share ofworld GDP the scale of imports and exports of goods andservices and economic freedom are all positively related tothe internationalization of RMB the inflation rate and thevolatility of real effective exchange rate are negatively re-lated to it

23 Summary of Literature Review 0e research on thetheory of Chinarsquos RMB internationalization path in existingliterature can be divided into two angles on one hand RMBinternationalization mainly concerns trade settlementsupplemented by offshore market with currency swap as thecomplement on the other hand RMB internationaliza-tion follows ldquoEast Asianization and Southeast Asianization⟶Asianizationrdquo and provides reference for establishment ofthe theoretical framework for RMB internationalization pathbased on Chinarsquos border area perspective in the thesis In ad-dition research in the literature on the status quo of promotingRMB internationalization process in Chinarsquos border area alsolays a certain foundation for the research in the thesis Howeverthe existing literature presents mismatching of research situa-tions between RMB internationalization path at national leveland RMB internationalization path at border area level withrelative lagging of research for border areas 0erefore it is inurgent need of building the analysis framework of RMB in-ternationalization path in border area in combination with thepractical conditions

0ese new data sources are particularly relevant in theabsence of reliable data on economic outcomes such astracking and setting poverty targets in developing countries[15] Jean et al [16] trained neural networks to predict localeconomic outcomes based on satellite data from five Africancountries Machine learning can also draw economic fore-casts from large-scale network data for example Blumen-stock et al [17] use mobile data to measure wealth enablingthem to quantify poverty in Rwanda at the individual levelImage recognition can certainly be used outside of satellitedata and localized predictions of economic outcomes arerelevant outside developing countries

3 Theoretical Framework

31 ResearchHypothesis ofRMB InternationalizationPath fromthe Border Area Perspective Effectively internationalizationof yuan has been pursued along two interrelated tracks [18]One track focuses on cultivating use of the currency inforeign trade At the official level swap agreements havebeen arranged with an increasing number of foreign centralbanks facilitating expanded use of the RMB as a means ofpayment [19] By mid-2016 some three dozen agreementshad been signed totaling more than RMB 33 trillion(C$480 billion) At the private level regulations have beengradually eased to permit more import and export trans-actions to be settled in yuan bypassing traditional in-voicing currencies like the dollar 0e second track focuseson use of the RMB in international finance as a store ofvalue

Complexity 3

Currently the research theory of evolution mode forRMB internationalization path mainly focuses on the na-tional level and seldom establishes the research analysisframework for RMB internationalization path reflectinggeographical features in terms of a certain region For thisreason the thesis has integrated Figure 1 and proposed theresearch hypothesis of RMB internationalization path inconformity with the characteristics of border areas

0e first is the regional path hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization from the border area perspective Learningfrom the regional evolution path theory of ldquosurroundingusage⟶ regionalization⟶ internationalizationrdquo at thenational level for RMB internationalization in considerationof the differences between national path and border area pathfor RMB internationalization it is proposed that the regionalevolution path for border areas should follow the hypothesisof border-oriented first and then internationalization so as toreflect the location characteristics of the border areas inconnection with the surrounding countries

0e second is the functional path hypothesis of RMBinternationalization from the border area perspectiveLearning from the functional evolution path theory of ldquotradesettlement⟶ investment currency⟶ credit finan-cing⟶ reserve currencyrdquo at the national level for RMBinternationalization in consideration of the differencesbetween national path and border area path for RMB in-ternationalization the hypothesis mainly focusing on suchthree functions as trade settlement investment currencyand credit financing has been put forward from the borderarea perspective

32 3eoretical Model of RMB Internationalization Pathfrom the Border Area Perspective Friedman [20] presentsmoney demand function from the perspective of a countryrsquosmonetary demand as follows

M

P f y w rm rb re

1P

dP

dt u1113888 1113889 (1)

In the function y refers to actual income w means theproportion of nonhuman wealth in total wealth (namelythe proportion of income from property in total income)rm represents the expected nominal yield of currency rbmeans the expected nominal yield of term bond re refersto the expected nominal yield of stock (1P)(dPdt)

means the expected change rate of commodity price(namely reflecting inflation) and u stands for non-revenue factor

According to money demand function the main ideas ofFriedmanrsquos monetary demand theory can be summarized asthe following aspects firstly in the economic society moneyis a kind of asset and a form of holding wealth by people thesecond is about the total amount of wealth held by people invarious forms and the difference in individual total wealthtends to influence hisher demand for money the third isabout the anticipated returns of wealth in all forms In theeconomic society people hold the total wealth in differentforms fourthly the function can not only indicate themonetary demand of the ultimate wealth owner but also

represent the aggregate demand for a countryrsquos money fromthe whole international community Based on the aboveideas the thesis draws on the money demand function(formula (1)) established by Friedman [20] in compre-hensive consideration of the two-dimensional hypotheses inaccordance with regional and functional paths in borderareas and builds the following theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path for border areas

Mi yi( 1113857β1 middot Xi( 1113857

β2 middot Ri( 1113857β3 middot

1Pi

dPi

dt1113888 1113889

β4middot ui (2)

In the modelMi refers to the RMB demand in the bordercountry or border area i yi means the overall revenue in theborder area i Xi indicates the opening-up scale of the borderarea i mainly reflecting the monetary function Ri shows thewealth conditions in the border area i (1Pi)(dPidt)

represents the price change in the border area i ui refers tothe impact of other factors on the RMB demand in theborder area i β1 β2 β3 and β4 respectively represent theinfluence coefficient of various factors on the RMB demandin the border area i

According to the above theoretical model the mainpoints of RMB internationalization path theory from theborder area perspective proposed in the thesis include thefollowing aspects firstly the demand for RMB in the borderareas is affected by the opening-up scale of the regionnamely the functional path of foreign trade investmentcurrency and credit financing secondly the demand forRMB in the border areas is influenced by the overall incomewealth of residents and enterprises and price fluctuation inthe region thirdly the regional characteristics of the borderarea and nonborder area are differentiated by the subscript iin the model

33 Indicator System and Research Object

331 Indicator System and Research Hypothesis In accor-dance with the selection of influencing factors for RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas the indicator systemof influencing factors for RMB internationalization path inborder areas has been established as shown in Table 1

Regional path

RMB internationalization path from the border area perspective

Functional path

Border-oriented

Internationalization

+

+

Trade settlement

Investment currency

Credit financing

Figure 1 Two-dimensional research hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization path from the border area perspective

4 Complexity

0e research hypotheses in five aspects have been putforward in view of the above indicator system

H1 the local GDP in border areas presents thepositive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH2 the foreign trade volume in border areas presentsthe positive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH3 the foreign investment amount in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areasH4 the balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the demandfor RMB in border areasH5 consumer price index in border areas presents thenegative correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areas

332 Research Object 0e research object of the thesismainly refers to Yunnan province in China Yunnanprovince covers a total area of about 390 thousand squarekilometers and accounts for 411 of the countryrsquos territoryranking no 8 among the provincial administrative regionsnationwide in terms of the area 0e boundary line ofYunnan province is 4060 kilometers bordering on suchthree countries as Burma Laos and Vietnam As to theconcrete division on one hand Yunnan province was ap-proved by China to carry out cross-border RMB settlementpilot work in 2011 and at the end of 2015 only the data forthe past five years could be collected for the econometricmodel with five explanatory variables the regression resultswill be of significance with theminimum samples of freedomat 15 For this purpose the thesis takes 16 cities and pre-fectures in Yunnan province into consideration from thecross-section angle to build the panel econometric model inthis way the sample size increases to 80 meeting the re-quirements of regression On the other hand in order toshow the innovativeness of the thesis and reveal the regionalheterogeneity Yunnan province is divided into such threeregions as southern Yunnan central Yunnan and northernYunnan so as to reflect the differences of RMB in-ternationalization path in different regions see Table 2 forthe detailed division

34 Econometric Model and Data Specification

341 Econometric Model Take the logarithm at both sides ofthe theoretical model (formula (2)) equation and establish thefollowing four panel data econometric models of influencingfactors for RMB internationalization in Yunnan province incombination with the specific secondary indicator of theinfluencing factors for RMB internationalization path in theselected border area

ln kjit c + α1 middot ln gdpit + α2 ln tradit + α3 ln fdiit+ α4 ln finait + α5 ln cpiit + μit

(3)

ln kj1t c1 + β1 middot ln gdp1t + β2 ln trad1t + β3 ln fdi1t

+ β4 ln fina1t + β5 ln cpi1t + μ1t(4)

ln kj2t c2 + c1 middot ln gdp2t + c2 ln trad2t + c3 ln fdi2t

+ c4 ln fina2t + c5 ln cpi2t + μ2t(5)

ln kj3t c3 + δ1 middot ln gdp3t + δ2 ln trad3t + δ3 ln fdi3t

+ δ4 ln fina3t + δ5 ln cpi3t + μ3t(6)

In the above four equations equation (3) refers to theoverall panel data econometric model for all the 16 cities andprefectures in Yunnan province equations (4)ndash(6) indicatethe panel data econometric models for the three regions ofsouthern Yunnan central Yunnan and northern Yunnan inYunnan province c represents the constant term of themodel u represents the random disturbance term of themodel α β c and σ show the estimated parameters beforeall explanatory variables

342 Data Specification Combine the specific indicatorcategory in the above influencing factor indicator system forRMB internationalization path of Yunnan province andsearch the department concerned and relevant statisticalyearbook so as to collect and sort the panel data of influ-encing factor indicator from 2011 to 2015 0e data forvarious indicators come fromKunming central subbranch ofthe Peoplersquos Bank of China statistical yearbook of Yunnanprovince Chinarsquos regional economic statistical yearbookand Yunnan survey yearbook On the basis of various in-dicator data collected and sorted with the purpose of re-ducing the impact of absolute data dimension on regressionresults as well as the fluctuation range of the data take the

Table 1 Indicator system of influencing factors for RMB internationalization path in border areas

First class indicators Second class indicatorsCorrelation Variable type

Name Code Name CodeDemand for RMB M Cross-border RMB business settlement amount kj mdash Explained variableOverall revenue Y Local GDP gdp Positive correlation

Explanatoryvariable

Opening-up scale X Total volume of foreign trade trad Positive correlationForeign direct investment amount fdi Positive correlation

Wealth conditions R Balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions fina Positive correlation

Price change (1P)(dPdt) Consumer price index cpi Negative correlation

Complexity 5

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

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Page 3: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

internationalizing the RMB by playing a leading role in EastAsiarsquos economic integration within the framework ofASEAN+3 0is paper concludes that the latter is a morerealistic and effective approach for China

22 Research on RMB Internationalization in Chinarsquos BorderAreas Tang et al [8] conduct research on RMB regionalinternationalization path in Guangxi propose cross-bordersettlement of RMB and mutual financial pilot points andestablish offshore RMB investment return project libraryand the development path for provincial RMB ldquoasset poolrdquo0e research group of Xinjiang Financial Society [9] fromthe perspective of domestic and foreign regional layout putsforward the path in which Kazakhstan is chosen as the firstcountry for promoting RMB regionalization beyond theborder and Sino-Kazakhstan Economic and Trade Co-operation Center in Horgos is regarded as the pilot point forRMB regionalization in China at the same time In view ofsuch problems as lagged financial services in Inner Mongoliaand Mongolia and lagged adjustment of dollar and RMBfund position in RMB account settlement Wang [10] raisesthe path of expanding RMB settlement business in bordertrade and strengthening financial cooperation with sur-rounding countries

At present the literature about RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan province mainly includes thefeasibility of implementation obstacles suggestions fordevelopment and existing risks Liu [11] considers that thefeasibility of implementation for RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan includes the following thefirst is the high degree of acceptance large stock and widedistribution in neighboring countries the second is theearly cross-border settlement obvious geographic advan-tages and numerous participating industries and countriesand the third is the early small currency conversion anddistinctive characteristics Sun [12] thinks that there stillexist such problems in promoting RMB regional in-ternationalization in Yunnan as impeded clearing systemunsound backflow channels cumbersome process for casecross-border dispatching and currency conversion to befurther improved Based on the above situation he putsforward the suggestions of strengthening the financialcooperation with neighboring countries researching anddeveloping RMB cash backflow mechanism and encour-aging provincial financial institutions to go out Ding et al[13] conducts empirical analysis of the factors influencingRMB settlement in cross-border trade through establishingeconometrics model including such factors as local totaloutput local currency supply and national identity of tradetarget country 0e study by Wu and Tang [14] exploreswhat factors influence RMB internationalization in theprocess of the Belt and Road It firstly makes a summary ofthe important influencing factors then sets up a semi-logarithmic model to quantitatively analyze these factorsand finally puts forward suggestions for the steady devel-opment of RMB internationalization 0rough literaturereview it is found that since the Belt and Road initiative wasput forward RMB has been used more extensively in the

surrounding countries and regions 0rough quantitativeresearch it is found that with Chinarsquos GDP as a share ofworld GDP the scale of imports and exports of goods andservices and economic freedom are all positively related tothe internationalization of RMB the inflation rate and thevolatility of real effective exchange rate are negatively re-lated to it

23 Summary of Literature Review 0e research on thetheory of Chinarsquos RMB internationalization path in existingliterature can be divided into two angles on one hand RMBinternationalization mainly concerns trade settlementsupplemented by offshore market with currency swap as thecomplement on the other hand RMB internationaliza-tion follows ldquoEast Asianization and Southeast Asianization⟶Asianizationrdquo and provides reference for establishment ofthe theoretical framework for RMB internationalization pathbased on Chinarsquos border area perspective in the thesis In ad-dition research in the literature on the status quo of promotingRMB internationalization process in Chinarsquos border area alsolays a certain foundation for the research in the thesis Howeverthe existing literature presents mismatching of research situa-tions between RMB internationalization path at national leveland RMB internationalization path at border area level withrelative lagging of research for border areas 0erefore it is inurgent need of building the analysis framework of RMB in-ternationalization path in border area in combination with thepractical conditions

0ese new data sources are particularly relevant in theabsence of reliable data on economic outcomes such astracking and setting poverty targets in developing countries[15] Jean et al [16] trained neural networks to predict localeconomic outcomes based on satellite data from five Africancountries Machine learning can also draw economic fore-casts from large-scale network data for example Blumen-stock et al [17] use mobile data to measure wealth enablingthem to quantify poverty in Rwanda at the individual levelImage recognition can certainly be used outside of satellitedata and localized predictions of economic outcomes arerelevant outside developing countries

3 Theoretical Framework

31 ResearchHypothesis ofRMB InternationalizationPath fromthe Border Area Perspective Effectively internationalizationof yuan has been pursued along two interrelated tracks [18]One track focuses on cultivating use of the currency inforeign trade At the official level swap agreements havebeen arranged with an increasing number of foreign centralbanks facilitating expanded use of the RMB as a means ofpayment [19] By mid-2016 some three dozen agreementshad been signed totaling more than RMB 33 trillion(C$480 billion) At the private level regulations have beengradually eased to permit more import and export trans-actions to be settled in yuan bypassing traditional in-voicing currencies like the dollar 0e second track focuseson use of the RMB in international finance as a store ofvalue

Complexity 3

Currently the research theory of evolution mode forRMB internationalization path mainly focuses on the na-tional level and seldom establishes the research analysisframework for RMB internationalization path reflectinggeographical features in terms of a certain region For thisreason the thesis has integrated Figure 1 and proposed theresearch hypothesis of RMB internationalization path inconformity with the characteristics of border areas

0e first is the regional path hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization from the border area perspective Learningfrom the regional evolution path theory of ldquosurroundingusage⟶ regionalization⟶ internationalizationrdquo at thenational level for RMB internationalization in considerationof the differences between national path and border area pathfor RMB internationalization it is proposed that the regionalevolution path for border areas should follow the hypothesisof border-oriented first and then internationalization so as toreflect the location characteristics of the border areas inconnection with the surrounding countries

0e second is the functional path hypothesis of RMBinternationalization from the border area perspectiveLearning from the functional evolution path theory of ldquotradesettlement⟶ investment currency⟶ credit finan-cing⟶ reserve currencyrdquo at the national level for RMBinternationalization in consideration of the differencesbetween national path and border area path for RMB in-ternationalization the hypothesis mainly focusing on suchthree functions as trade settlement investment currencyand credit financing has been put forward from the borderarea perspective

32 3eoretical Model of RMB Internationalization Pathfrom the Border Area Perspective Friedman [20] presentsmoney demand function from the perspective of a countryrsquosmonetary demand as follows

M

P f y w rm rb re

1P

dP

dt u1113888 1113889 (1)

In the function y refers to actual income w means theproportion of nonhuman wealth in total wealth (namelythe proportion of income from property in total income)rm represents the expected nominal yield of currency rbmeans the expected nominal yield of term bond re refersto the expected nominal yield of stock (1P)(dPdt)

means the expected change rate of commodity price(namely reflecting inflation) and u stands for non-revenue factor

According to money demand function the main ideas ofFriedmanrsquos monetary demand theory can be summarized asthe following aspects firstly in the economic society moneyis a kind of asset and a form of holding wealth by people thesecond is about the total amount of wealth held by people invarious forms and the difference in individual total wealthtends to influence hisher demand for money the third isabout the anticipated returns of wealth in all forms In theeconomic society people hold the total wealth in differentforms fourthly the function can not only indicate themonetary demand of the ultimate wealth owner but also

represent the aggregate demand for a countryrsquos money fromthe whole international community Based on the aboveideas the thesis draws on the money demand function(formula (1)) established by Friedman [20] in compre-hensive consideration of the two-dimensional hypotheses inaccordance with regional and functional paths in borderareas and builds the following theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path for border areas

Mi yi( 1113857β1 middot Xi( 1113857

β2 middot Ri( 1113857β3 middot

1Pi

dPi

dt1113888 1113889

β4middot ui (2)

In the modelMi refers to the RMB demand in the bordercountry or border area i yi means the overall revenue in theborder area i Xi indicates the opening-up scale of the borderarea i mainly reflecting the monetary function Ri shows thewealth conditions in the border area i (1Pi)(dPidt)

represents the price change in the border area i ui refers tothe impact of other factors on the RMB demand in theborder area i β1 β2 β3 and β4 respectively represent theinfluence coefficient of various factors on the RMB demandin the border area i

According to the above theoretical model the mainpoints of RMB internationalization path theory from theborder area perspective proposed in the thesis include thefollowing aspects firstly the demand for RMB in the borderareas is affected by the opening-up scale of the regionnamely the functional path of foreign trade investmentcurrency and credit financing secondly the demand forRMB in the border areas is influenced by the overall incomewealth of residents and enterprises and price fluctuation inthe region thirdly the regional characteristics of the borderarea and nonborder area are differentiated by the subscript iin the model

33 Indicator System and Research Object

331 Indicator System and Research Hypothesis In accor-dance with the selection of influencing factors for RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas the indicator systemof influencing factors for RMB internationalization path inborder areas has been established as shown in Table 1

Regional path

RMB internationalization path from the border area perspective

Functional path

Border-oriented

Internationalization

+

+

Trade settlement

Investment currency

Credit financing

Figure 1 Two-dimensional research hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization path from the border area perspective

4 Complexity

0e research hypotheses in five aspects have been putforward in view of the above indicator system

H1 the local GDP in border areas presents thepositive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH2 the foreign trade volume in border areas presentsthe positive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH3 the foreign investment amount in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areasH4 the balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the demandfor RMB in border areasH5 consumer price index in border areas presents thenegative correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areas

332 Research Object 0e research object of the thesismainly refers to Yunnan province in China Yunnanprovince covers a total area of about 390 thousand squarekilometers and accounts for 411 of the countryrsquos territoryranking no 8 among the provincial administrative regionsnationwide in terms of the area 0e boundary line ofYunnan province is 4060 kilometers bordering on suchthree countries as Burma Laos and Vietnam As to theconcrete division on one hand Yunnan province was ap-proved by China to carry out cross-border RMB settlementpilot work in 2011 and at the end of 2015 only the data forthe past five years could be collected for the econometricmodel with five explanatory variables the regression resultswill be of significance with theminimum samples of freedomat 15 For this purpose the thesis takes 16 cities and pre-fectures in Yunnan province into consideration from thecross-section angle to build the panel econometric model inthis way the sample size increases to 80 meeting the re-quirements of regression On the other hand in order toshow the innovativeness of the thesis and reveal the regionalheterogeneity Yunnan province is divided into such threeregions as southern Yunnan central Yunnan and northernYunnan so as to reflect the differences of RMB in-ternationalization path in different regions see Table 2 forthe detailed division

34 Econometric Model and Data Specification

341 Econometric Model Take the logarithm at both sides ofthe theoretical model (formula (2)) equation and establish thefollowing four panel data econometric models of influencingfactors for RMB internationalization in Yunnan province incombination with the specific secondary indicator of theinfluencing factors for RMB internationalization path in theselected border area

ln kjit c + α1 middot ln gdpit + α2 ln tradit + α3 ln fdiit+ α4 ln finait + α5 ln cpiit + μit

(3)

ln kj1t c1 + β1 middot ln gdp1t + β2 ln trad1t + β3 ln fdi1t

+ β4 ln fina1t + β5 ln cpi1t + μ1t(4)

ln kj2t c2 + c1 middot ln gdp2t + c2 ln trad2t + c3 ln fdi2t

+ c4 ln fina2t + c5 ln cpi2t + μ2t(5)

ln kj3t c3 + δ1 middot ln gdp3t + δ2 ln trad3t + δ3 ln fdi3t

+ δ4 ln fina3t + δ5 ln cpi3t + μ3t(6)

In the above four equations equation (3) refers to theoverall panel data econometric model for all the 16 cities andprefectures in Yunnan province equations (4)ndash(6) indicatethe panel data econometric models for the three regions ofsouthern Yunnan central Yunnan and northern Yunnan inYunnan province c represents the constant term of themodel u represents the random disturbance term of themodel α β c and σ show the estimated parameters beforeall explanatory variables

342 Data Specification Combine the specific indicatorcategory in the above influencing factor indicator system forRMB internationalization path of Yunnan province andsearch the department concerned and relevant statisticalyearbook so as to collect and sort the panel data of influ-encing factor indicator from 2011 to 2015 0e data forvarious indicators come fromKunming central subbranch ofthe Peoplersquos Bank of China statistical yearbook of Yunnanprovince Chinarsquos regional economic statistical yearbookand Yunnan survey yearbook On the basis of various in-dicator data collected and sorted with the purpose of re-ducing the impact of absolute data dimension on regressionresults as well as the fluctuation range of the data take the

Table 1 Indicator system of influencing factors for RMB internationalization path in border areas

First class indicators Second class indicatorsCorrelation Variable type

Name Code Name CodeDemand for RMB M Cross-border RMB business settlement amount kj mdash Explained variableOverall revenue Y Local GDP gdp Positive correlation

Explanatoryvariable

Opening-up scale X Total volume of foreign trade trad Positive correlationForeign direct investment amount fdi Positive correlation

Wealth conditions R Balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions fina Positive correlation

Price change (1P)(dPdt) Consumer price index cpi Negative correlation

Complexity 5

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

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Page 4: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

Currently the research theory of evolution mode forRMB internationalization path mainly focuses on the na-tional level and seldom establishes the research analysisframework for RMB internationalization path reflectinggeographical features in terms of a certain region For thisreason the thesis has integrated Figure 1 and proposed theresearch hypothesis of RMB internationalization path inconformity with the characteristics of border areas

0e first is the regional path hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization from the border area perspective Learningfrom the regional evolution path theory of ldquosurroundingusage⟶ regionalization⟶ internationalizationrdquo at thenational level for RMB internationalization in considerationof the differences between national path and border area pathfor RMB internationalization it is proposed that the regionalevolution path for border areas should follow the hypothesisof border-oriented first and then internationalization so as toreflect the location characteristics of the border areas inconnection with the surrounding countries

0e second is the functional path hypothesis of RMBinternationalization from the border area perspectiveLearning from the functional evolution path theory of ldquotradesettlement⟶ investment currency⟶ credit finan-cing⟶ reserve currencyrdquo at the national level for RMBinternationalization in consideration of the differencesbetween national path and border area path for RMB in-ternationalization the hypothesis mainly focusing on suchthree functions as trade settlement investment currencyand credit financing has been put forward from the borderarea perspective

32 3eoretical Model of RMB Internationalization Pathfrom the Border Area Perspective Friedman [20] presentsmoney demand function from the perspective of a countryrsquosmonetary demand as follows

M

P f y w rm rb re

1P

dP

dt u1113888 1113889 (1)

In the function y refers to actual income w means theproportion of nonhuman wealth in total wealth (namelythe proportion of income from property in total income)rm represents the expected nominal yield of currency rbmeans the expected nominal yield of term bond re refersto the expected nominal yield of stock (1P)(dPdt)

means the expected change rate of commodity price(namely reflecting inflation) and u stands for non-revenue factor

According to money demand function the main ideas ofFriedmanrsquos monetary demand theory can be summarized asthe following aspects firstly in the economic society moneyis a kind of asset and a form of holding wealth by people thesecond is about the total amount of wealth held by people invarious forms and the difference in individual total wealthtends to influence hisher demand for money the third isabout the anticipated returns of wealth in all forms In theeconomic society people hold the total wealth in differentforms fourthly the function can not only indicate themonetary demand of the ultimate wealth owner but also

represent the aggregate demand for a countryrsquos money fromthe whole international community Based on the aboveideas the thesis draws on the money demand function(formula (1)) established by Friedman [20] in compre-hensive consideration of the two-dimensional hypotheses inaccordance with regional and functional paths in borderareas and builds the following theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path for border areas

Mi yi( 1113857β1 middot Xi( 1113857

β2 middot Ri( 1113857β3 middot

1Pi

dPi

dt1113888 1113889

β4middot ui (2)

In the modelMi refers to the RMB demand in the bordercountry or border area i yi means the overall revenue in theborder area i Xi indicates the opening-up scale of the borderarea i mainly reflecting the monetary function Ri shows thewealth conditions in the border area i (1Pi)(dPidt)

represents the price change in the border area i ui refers tothe impact of other factors on the RMB demand in theborder area i β1 β2 β3 and β4 respectively represent theinfluence coefficient of various factors on the RMB demandin the border area i

According to the above theoretical model the mainpoints of RMB internationalization path theory from theborder area perspective proposed in the thesis include thefollowing aspects firstly the demand for RMB in the borderareas is affected by the opening-up scale of the regionnamely the functional path of foreign trade investmentcurrency and credit financing secondly the demand forRMB in the border areas is influenced by the overall incomewealth of residents and enterprises and price fluctuation inthe region thirdly the regional characteristics of the borderarea and nonborder area are differentiated by the subscript iin the model

33 Indicator System and Research Object

331 Indicator System and Research Hypothesis In accor-dance with the selection of influencing factors for RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas the indicator systemof influencing factors for RMB internationalization path inborder areas has been established as shown in Table 1

Regional path

RMB internationalization path from the border area perspective

Functional path

Border-oriented

Internationalization

+

+

Trade settlement

Investment currency

Credit financing

Figure 1 Two-dimensional research hypothesis of RMB in-ternationalization path from the border area perspective

4 Complexity

0e research hypotheses in five aspects have been putforward in view of the above indicator system

H1 the local GDP in border areas presents thepositive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH2 the foreign trade volume in border areas presentsthe positive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH3 the foreign investment amount in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areasH4 the balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the demandfor RMB in border areasH5 consumer price index in border areas presents thenegative correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areas

332 Research Object 0e research object of the thesismainly refers to Yunnan province in China Yunnanprovince covers a total area of about 390 thousand squarekilometers and accounts for 411 of the countryrsquos territoryranking no 8 among the provincial administrative regionsnationwide in terms of the area 0e boundary line ofYunnan province is 4060 kilometers bordering on suchthree countries as Burma Laos and Vietnam As to theconcrete division on one hand Yunnan province was ap-proved by China to carry out cross-border RMB settlementpilot work in 2011 and at the end of 2015 only the data forthe past five years could be collected for the econometricmodel with five explanatory variables the regression resultswill be of significance with theminimum samples of freedomat 15 For this purpose the thesis takes 16 cities and pre-fectures in Yunnan province into consideration from thecross-section angle to build the panel econometric model inthis way the sample size increases to 80 meeting the re-quirements of regression On the other hand in order toshow the innovativeness of the thesis and reveal the regionalheterogeneity Yunnan province is divided into such threeregions as southern Yunnan central Yunnan and northernYunnan so as to reflect the differences of RMB in-ternationalization path in different regions see Table 2 forthe detailed division

34 Econometric Model and Data Specification

341 Econometric Model Take the logarithm at both sides ofthe theoretical model (formula (2)) equation and establish thefollowing four panel data econometric models of influencingfactors for RMB internationalization in Yunnan province incombination with the specific secondary indicator of theinfluencing factors for RMB internationalization path in theselected border area

ln kjit c + α1 middot ln gdpit + α2 ln tradit + α3 ln fdiit+ α4 ln finait + α5 ln cpiit + μit

(3)

ln kj1t c1 + β1 middot ln gdp1t + β2 ln trad1t + β3 ln fdi1t

+ β4 ln fina1t + β5 ln cpi1t + μ1t(4)

ln kj2t c2 + c1 middot ln gdp2t + c2 ln trad2t + c3 ln fdi2t

+ c4 ln fina2t + c5 ln cpi2t + μ2t(5)

ln kj3t c3 + δ1 middot ln gdp3t + δ2 ln trad3t + δ3 ln fdi3t

+ δ4 ln fina3t + δ5 ln cpi3t + μ3t(6)

In the above four equations equation (3) refers to theoverall panel data econometric model for all the 16 cities andprefectures in Yunnan province equations (4)ndash(6) indicatethe panel data econometric models for the three regions ofsouthern Yunnan central Yunnan and northern Yunnan inYunnan province c represents the constant term of themodel u represents the random disturbance term of themodel α β c and σ show the estimated parameters beforeall explanatory variables

342 Data Specification Combine the specific indicatorcategory in the above influencing factor indicator system forRMB internationalization path of Yunnan province andsearch the department concerned and relevant statisticalyearbook so as to collect and sort the panel data of influ-encing factor indicator from 2011 to 2015 0e data forvarious indicators come fromKunming central subbranch ofthe Peoplersquos Bank of China statistical yearbook of Yunnanprovince Chinarsquos regional economic statistical yearbookand Yunnan survey yearbook On the basis of various in-dicator data collected and sorted with the purpose of re-ducing the impact of absolute data dimension on regressionresults as well as the fluctuation range of the data take the

Table 1 Indicator system of influencing factors for RMB internationalization path in border areas

First class indicators Second class indicatorsCorrelation Variable type

Name Code Name CodeDemand for RMB M Cross-border RMB business settlement amount kj mdash Explained variableOverall revenue Y Local GDP gdp Positive correlation

Explanatoryvariable

Opening-up scale X Total volume of foreign trade trad Positive correlationForeign direct investment amount fdi Positive correlation

Wealth conditions R Balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions fina Positive correlation

Price change (1P)(dPdt) Consumer price index cpi Negative correlation

Complexity 5

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

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Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 5: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

0e research hypotheses in five aspects have been putforward in view of the above indicator system

H1 the local GDP in border areas presents thepositive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH2 the foreign trade volume in border areas presentsthe positive correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areasH3 the foreign investment amount in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areasH4 the balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the demandfor RMB in border areasH5 consumer price index in border areas presents thenegative correlation with the demand for RMB inborder areas

332 Research Object 0e research object of the thesismainly refers to Yunnan province in China Yunnanprovince covers a total area of about 390 thousand squarekilometers and accounts for 411 of the countryrsquos territoryranking no 8 among the provincial administrative regionsnationwide in terms of the area 0e boundary line ofYunnan province is 4060 kilometers bordering on suchthree countries as Burma Laos and Vietnam As to theconcrete division on one hand Yunnan province was ap-proved by China to carry out cross-border RMB settlementpilot work in 2011 and at the end of 2015 only the data forthe past five years could be collected for the econometricmodel with five explanatory variables the regression resultswill be of significance with theminimum samples of freedomat 15 For this purpose the thesis takes 16 cities and pre-fectures in Yunnan province into consideration from thecross-section angle to build the panel econometric model inthis way the sample size increases to 80 meeting the re-quirements of regression On the other hand in order toshow the innovativeness of the thesis and reveal the regionalheterogeneity Yunnan province is divided into such threeregions as southern Yunnan central Yunnan and northernYunnan so as to reflect the differences of RMB in-ternationalization path in different regions see Table 2 forthe detailed division

34 Econometric Model and Data Specification

341 Econometric Model Take the logarithm at both sides ofthe theoretical model (formula (2)) equation and establish thefollowing four panel data econometric models of influencingfactors for RMB internationalization in Yunnan province incombination with the specific secondary indicator of theinfluencing factors for RMB internationalization path in theselected border area

ln kjit c + α1 middot ln gdpit + α2 ln tradit + α3 ln fdiit+ α4 ln finait + α5 ln cpiit + μit

(3)

ln kj1t c1 + β1 middot ln gdp1t + β2 ln trad1t + β3 ln fdi1t

+ β4 ln fina1t + β5 ln cpi1t + μ1t(4)

ln kj2t c2 + c1 middot ln gdp2t + c2 ln trad2t + c3 ln fdi2t

+ c4 ln fina2t + c5 ln cpi2t + μ2t(5)

ln kj3t c3 + δ1 middot ln gdp3t + δ2 ln trad3t + δ3 ln fdi3t

+ δ4 ln fina3t + δ5 ln cpi3t + μ3t(6)

In the above four equations equation (3) refers to theoverall panel data econometric model for all the 16 cities andprefectures in Yunnan province equations (4)ndash(6) indicatethe panel data econometric models for the three regions ofsouthern Yunnan central Yunnan and northern Yunnan inYunnan province c represents the constant term of themodel u represents the random disturbance term of themodel α β c and σ show the estimated parameters beforeall explanatory variables

342 Data Specification Combine the specific indicatorcategory in the above influencing factor indicator system forRMB internationalization path of Yunnan province andsearch the department concerned and relevant statisticalyearbook so as to collect and sort the panel data of influ-encing factor indicator from 2011 to 2015 0e data forvarious indicators come fromKunming central subbranch ofthe Peoplersquos Bank of China statistical yearbook of Yunnanprovince Chinarsquos regional economic statistical yearbookand Yunnan survey yearbook On the basis of various in-dicator data collected and sorted with the purpose of re-ducing the impact of absolute data dimension on regressionresults as well as the fluctuation range of the data take the

Table 1 Indicator system of influencing factors for RMB internationalization path in border areas

First class indicators Second class indicatorsCorrelation Variable type

Name Code Name CodeDemand for RMB M Cross-border RMB business settlement amount kj mdash Explained variableOverall revenue Y Local GDP gdp Positive correlation

Explanatoryvariable

Opening-up scale X Total volume of foreign trade trad Positive correlationForeign direct investment amount fdi Positive correlation

Wealth conditions R Balance of deposits and loans in domestic andforeign currency for financial institutions fina Positive correlation

Price change (1P)(dPdt) Consumer price index cpi Negative correlation

Complexity 5

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 6: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

logarithm of the five absolute indicators namely cross-border RMB settlement local GDP total volume of foreigntrade foreign direct investment amount and the balance ofdeposits and loans for financial institutions

4 Empirical Analysis

0e collected panel data of various regression variables arecomposed of five time dimensions and sixteen cross-sectiondimensions namely ldquoshort panelrdquo data with the sample size80 See Table 3 for the detailed description of such statisticalproperties as the mean value standard deviation maximumand minimum for all variable samples

Applied to F-test and Hausman test for the panel datamodels established in the thesis and determine the form ofthe four panel data models as entity-fixed effect models Asto the entity effect models considering that the cross sectiondata of samples are more than the ldquoshort panelrdquo traits of timeseries it is advisable to adopt the generalized least squares(GLS) method to evaluate and obtain the estimated results ofoverall model and divisional models

41 Significance of Coefficient for Overall and DivisionalModels 0e results of the overall model 3 processed withGLS estimation are shown in Table 4 0e results show thatthe significant influencing factors for cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province are the total volume offoreign trade foreign direct investment amount and con-sumer price index According to the concrete analysis onepercent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade inYunnan province will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale in Yunnan province increase by 05514 onaverage one percent point rise of foreign direct investmentamount in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province increase by02031 on average one percent point rise of consumerprice index in Yunnan province will make the cross-borderRMB settlement scale in Yunnan province decline by00507 on average while such two factors as local GDP andthe balance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions in Yunnan province havenot exerted remarkable influence on the cross-border RMBsettlement in Yunnan province yet From the analysis ofstatistical properties adjusted R-squared (R2) is relativelyhigh F statistical value is high and DW statistics are close to2 indicating the sound fitting degree of overall model

significant overall coefficient and no first-order autocor-relation for stochastic error term

0e results of the divisional model 4 5 and 6 processedwith GLS estimation are shown in Table 5 0e results showthat the factors influencing the regional RMB settlementvary for different regions In southern Yunnan the signif-icant factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement scaleare the total volume of foreign trade and foreign directinvestment amount to be more specific one percent pointrise of the total volume of foreign trade in southern Yunnanwill make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by15331 on average one percent point rise of foreign directinvestment amount in southern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 05748 on av-erage In central Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the local GDP totalvolume of foreign trade foreign direct investment amountand consumer price index to be more specific one percentpoint rise of the local GDP in central Yunnan will make thecross-border RMB settlement scale increase by 21006 onaverage one percent point rise of the total volume of foreigntrade in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMBsettlement scale increase by 02019 on average one percentpoint rise of foreign direct investment amount in centralYunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scaleincrease by 02024 on average one percent point rise ofconsumer price index in central Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by 00783 on averageAs to northern Yunnan the significant factors influencingcross-border RMB settlement scale are the total volume offoreign trade and consumer price index to be more specificone percent point rise of the total volume of foreign trade innorthern Yunnan will make the cross-border RMB settle-ment scale increase by 27323 on average one percentpoint rise of consumer price index in northern Yunnan willmake the cross-border RMB settlement scale decline by0441 on average Judging from the statistical properties ofmodel 32 to 34 the adjusted R-squared (R2) of the threemodels is relatively high showing the sound fitting degreeand high F statistical value indicates the overall significanceof all model coefficients without first-order autocorrelationfor stochastic error term of all models

42 Deviation Degree of Intercept Term for Overall andDivisionalModels All the four panel models are entity effectmodels mainly featuring the existence of individual influence

Table 2 Division of all regions in Yunnan province

Region Include cities and prefectures Division explanation

Southern Yunnan (8 cities andprefectures)

Baoshan city Pursquoer city Lincang city Hongheprefecture Wenshan prefecture

Xishuangbanna prefecture Dehong prefectureNujiang prefecture

All the cities and prefectures in this regiondirectly neighbor the surrounding countries as

the border cities and prefectures

Central Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Kunming city Yuxi city Qujing city Daliprefecture

0e cities and prefectures in this region haverelatively developed economic and social status

Northern Yunnan (4 cities andprefectures)

Chuxiong prefecture Lijiang city Diqingprefecture Zhaotong city

0e cities and prefectures in this region areadjacent to other provinces in China

6 Complexity

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

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Page 7: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

among the 16 cities and prefectures in Yunnan provincewithout structural changes and the individual influence ismainly embodied in the differences of intercept term ofmodels for all cities and prefectures It is noteworthy that theindividual influence obtained by means of Eviews80 re-gression reflects the deviation of all cross section membersfrom the overall average state In other words the differencesof the intercept term for all cities and prefectures estimatedfrom the overall and divisional models in the thesis are re-flected in the deviation of the spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement (spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement refersto the existing cross-border RMB settlement value in all citiesand prefectures when all the five factors influencing cross-border RMB settlement are zero at the same time the

indicator can reflect the found) of all regions from theprovincial average spontaneous cross-border RMB settle-ment0e estimated deviation value for all regions is shown inTables 6 and 7 0e analysis of the deviation degree of in-tercept term in different regions indicates that the followingcities and prefectures have higher spontaneous cross-borderRMB settlement scale than the provincial average sponta-neous cross-border RMB settlement in terms of overallmodel Dehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang CityXishuangbanna Prefecture Pursquoer City Kunming City YuxiCity and Dali Prefecture and the rest cities and prefectureshave the spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scaleclose to or smaller than the provincial average scale As todivisional models the regions with the spontaneous cross-

Table 4 Econometric regression results of overall model 3

Variable indicator and code Variable parameter Estimated value of variable parameterConstant term c 35741Local GDP (ln gdp) α1 09607Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) α2 05514lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) α3 02031lowastlowastlowastBalance of deposits and loans in domestic and foreigncurrency for financial institutions (ln fina) α4 minus 01319

Consumer price index (ln cpi) α5 minus 00507lowastAdjusted R-squared R2 09737F statistical value 1473611DW statistics 14161lowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 10 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Table 3 Statistical representation of regression variable samples

Variable Mean value Standard deviation Minimum Maximum Sample sizeln kj 99674 14862 00000 157755 80ln gdp 58895 00294 38720 81360 80ln trad 97986 02055 55595 143401 80ln fdi 76029 08676 00000 120996 80ln fina 67282 00386 47449 98709 80ln cpi 46534 00053 46269 47362 80

Table 5 Econometric regression results of divisional model 4 to 6

Variable indicator and code

Southern Yunnan (model 4) Central Yunnan (model 5) Northern Yunnan (model 6)

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Variableparameter

Estimated value ofvariableparameter

Constant term c1 minus 51907 c2 33347lowastlowast c3 41657lowastlowastLocal GDP (ln gdp) β1 15843 c1 21006lowastlowastlowast σ1 minus 63848Total volume of foreign trade (ln trad) β2 15331lowastlowastlowast c2 02019lowastlowastlowast σ2 27323lowastlowastlowastForeign direct investment amount (ln fdi) β3 05748lowastlowastlowast c3 02124lowastlowast σ3 00099Balance of deposits and loans in domesticand foreign currency for financialinstitutions (ln fina)

β4 minus 24729 c4 02849 σ4 39652

Consumer price index (ln cpi) β5 00275 c5 minus 00783lowastlowastlowast σ5 minus 0441lowastlowastlowastAdjusted R-squared R2 06828 0998163 0850353F statistical value 1778842 1291449 1449568DW statistics 1415892 220737 253379lowastlowast and lowastlowastlowast represent the 5 and 1 significance levels for t statistics of all parameters respectively

Complexity 7

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 8: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

border RMB settlement scale higher than the provincial av-erage spontaneous cross-border RMB settlement scale includeDehong Prefecture Honghe Prefecture Lincang City andPursquoer City in southern Yunnan Kunming City Yuxi City andDali Prefecture in central Yunnan and Zhaotong City andChuxiong Prefecture in northern Yunnan

43 Robustness Test of Overall and Divisional Models 0ecointegration test of model 3 to 6 in Table 8 shows that theprobability p value of ADF statistics for all models is lessthan 005 that is to say at the significance level of 5 allmodels refuse to accept the original hypothesis withoutcointegrated model which indicates that all panel modelsare cointegrated and all regression coefficients are effectivewith explanatory power

5 Conclusions and Suggestions

0e research features innovative research perspective onone hand based on the regional heterogeneity analysiscombining the characteristics of cross-border RMB devel-opment at the local level and integrating the two paths ofmonetary function and regional evolution for RMB in-ternationalization into one analysis framework according tothe money demand function established by Friedman [20]so as to set up the theoretical model of RMB in-ternationalization path in border areas on the other handthe research has the innovative research method trying tofind out the influencing factors for the regional in-ternationalization of RMB in Yunnan province and theinfluencing degree from such aspects as demand for RMBoverall revenue opening-up scale wealth conditions andprice change according to the theoretical model of RMBinternationalization path in border areas by establishingpanel regression model in order to provide the empiricalsupport for the design of RMB internationalization path inborder areas On the basis of the analysis from theoreticaland empirical levels integrating the research hypotheses infive aspects the research results of the thesis are drawn asfollows

(1) Hypothesis H1 the local GDP in border areaspresents the positive correlation with the demand forRMB in border areas 0e analysis in the thesis in-dicates that the local GDP in Yunnan provincepresents no obvious correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province from the 16 cities andprefectures in the province as a whole while the localGDP of central Yunnan region presents positivecorrelation with the demand for RMB in the region

Table 7 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in divisional models

Region i clowasti

Southern Yunnan (model 4)Dehong prefecture DH 01714Honghe prefecture HH 01720Pursquoer city PE 00462Xishuangbanna prefecture BN minus 02731Lincang city LC 01175Baoshan city BS minus 01394Wenshan prefecture WS minus 01522Nujiang prefecture NJ 00576Central Yunnan (model 5)Kunming city KM 11264Yuxi city YX 07139Dali prefecture DL 07090Qujing city QJ minus 25493Northern Yunnan (model 6)Chuxiong prefecture CX 03814Lijiang city LJ minus 36449Diqing prefecture DQ minus 16196Zhaotong city ZT 48830

Table 8 Kao test results of overall model and divisional models

Overall model (3)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 5116029 00000

Residualvariance 2073562 mdash

HAC variance 1852340 mdash

Southern Yunnanmodel (4)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2452871 00071

Residualvariance 1475345 mdash

HAC variance 1394516 mdash

Central Yunnan model (5)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 466203 00000

Residualvariance 0036618 mdash

HAC variance 0036618 mdash

Northern Yunnanmodel (6)

Kao residual cointegration test

ADF t statistic Probminus 2252246 00122

Residualvariance 3807812 mdash

HAC variance 3539807 mdash

Table 6 Estimated results of spontaneous cross-border RMBsettlement deviation (clowasti ) for all regions in overall model

Region i clowasti

Dehong prefecture DH 33764Honghe prefecture HH 11860Lincang city LC 11045Xishuangbanna prefecture BN 08273Pursquoer city PE 06407Kunming city KM 05432Yuxi city YX 04631Dali prefecture DL 03214Baoshan city BS 00003Lijiang city LJ minus 00503Chuxiong prefecture CX minus 08801Nujiang prefecture NJ minus 10530Wenshan prefecture WS minus 10720Zhaotong city ZT minus 16371Diqing prefecture DQ minus 18310Qujing city QJ minus 19394

8 Complexity

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 9: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

from the regional perspective consistent with thehypothesis

(2) Hypothesis H2 the foreign trade volume in borderareas presents the positive correlation with the de-mand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis shows that the foreign trade volume in Yunnanprovince presents obvious positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in Yunnan province eitherfrom the overall or regional perspective consistentwith the hypothesis

(3) Hypothesis H3 the foreign investment amount inborder areas presents the positive correlation withthe demand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis inthe thesis indicates that the foreign investmentamount of Yunnan province presents obvious pos-itive correlation with the demand for RMB inYunnan province from the 16 cities and prefecturesin the province as a whole consistent with the hy-pothesis in terms of regional aspect the conditionsin southern Yunnan and central Yunnan are con-sistent with the hypothesis while the conditions innorthern Yunnan shows no significant correlation

(4) Hypothesis H4 the balance of deposits and loans indomestic and foreign currency for financial in-stitutions in border areas presents the positive cor-relation with the demand for RMB in border areas0e analysis in the thesis shows that the balance ofdeposits and loans in domestic and foreign currencyfor financial institutions in Yunnan province pres-ents no significant correlation with the demand forRMB in Yunnan province

(5) Hypothesis H5 consumer price index in borderareas presents the negative correlation with thedemand for RMB in border areas 0e analysis in thethesis indicates that the consumer price index inYunnan province presents obvious negative corre-lation with the demand for RMB in Yunnan prov-ince from the 16 cities and prefectures in theprovince as a whole consistent with the hypothesisin terms of regional aspect the conditions in centralYunnan and northern Yunnan are consistent withthe hypothesis while the conditions in southernYunnan shows no significant correlation

On the basis of the above research results the researchconclusions in the following aspects for the thesis can bedrawn firstly the factor of opening-up scale is the maindriving factor promoting RMB internationalization inYunnan province secondly the factor of price changehinders RMB internationalization process in Yunnanprovince to a certain extent thirdly the factor of overallrevenue promotes the development of RMB in-ternationalization only in some regions of Yunnan provincefourthly the factor of wealth conditions has not exerted orreleased its driving potential for RMB internationalizationprocess in Yunnan province

0e following four aspects of policy suggestions are putforward based on the conclusions from the thesis

0e first is to accelerate the innovation of financialproducts and expand regionalization of cross-border RMBinvestment and financing Efforts should be made to expandRMB capital export business focus on promotion of cross-border two-way RMB capital pool business cross-borderRMB central collection business and cross-border RMB loanbusiness under current account cross-border RMB settle-ment and RMB international investment and loan fundbusiness under personal current account rely on the majorinvestment projects abroad actively seek and expand marketand give play to other monetary functions of cross-borderRMB other than the trade settlement of cross-border RMBfurthermore it is suggested to speed up the innovation ofRMB overseas investment products increase the productcategories for overseas RMB valuation and expand re-gionalization of cross-border RMB investment and financing

0e second is to improve the foreign trade environmentand stabilize the status of trade settlement for cross-borderRMB try to promote the industrial upgrading adjust thetrade structure improve the trade conditions and boost thecurrency options of import and export enterprises in tradeimplement the differentiated encouraging policy for generaltrade and bulk commodity trade in use of RMB settlementestablish the trade cooperation platform and consolidate thetrade and investment scale with the neighboring countriesthrough such effective ways as simplifying customs clearanceformalities for goods trade (especially in the less developedarea on the border) accelerating approval and registrationprogress for cross-border investment and reducing trade andinvestment costs

0e third is to promote cross-border financial co-operation and unbar the development channel of cross-border RMB business concentrate efforts on promotingcross-border financial cooperation deepening foreign ex-change strengthening the communication and cooperationwith the central banks and commercial banks of neighboringcountries and set up the official communication and col-laboration mechanism as soon as possible further expandthe cooperation with foreign institutions and improve thecross-border RMB clearing and settlement system with thesurrounding countries and regions expand the RMBbackflow channels by means of overseas RMB loan issuanceof RMB bonds abroad and permitting purchase of domesticenterprise equity by foreign legal persons and individuals

0e fourth is to promote financial infrastructure up-grades and optimize the support mechanism for cross-border RMB process set up the research development andtest center for financial engineering on the border and ac-tively explore the construction of such financial in-frastructures as financial private network financial cloudcomputing center integrated service platform with elec-tronic payment sharing platform for enterprise credit in-formation mobile financial public service platform andfinancial information interaction platform give great im-petus to service facilitation improve market participationsimplify formalities reduce the examination and approvallower the trade cost for enterprises and enhance the serviceefficiency and optimize the construction of support mech-anism for cross-border RMB process

Complexity 9

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 10: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

Data Availability

WIND database were used to support this study

Conflicts of Interest

We declares that there is no conflict of interest regarding thepublication of this paper

References

[1] B Ermon ldquoChinarsquos challenge to the international monetarysystem incremental steps and long-term prospects for in-ternationalization of the renminbirdquo Pacific Forum CSIS Issuesand Insights vol 9 no 2 pp 1ndash17 2009

[2] F Zhen ldquo0e internationalization of renminbi developmentprospects and orientationrdquo Economic 3eory and BusinessManagement vol 33 no 5 pp 22ndash31 2014

[3] J Frankel ldquoInternationalization of the RMB and historicalprecedentsrdquo Journal of Economic Integration vol 27 no 3pp 329ndash365 2012

[4] D Lyratzakis ldquo0e determinants of RMB internationalizationthe political economy of a currencyrsquos riserdquoAmerican Journal ofChinese Studies vol 21 no 2 pp 163ndash184 2014

[5] R H Yang ldquoEffect of RMB circulation in surroundingcountries and adjustment of currency anchor in ASEANrdquoJournal of International Trade vol 339 no 3 pp 61ndash68 2011

[6] H F Peng X Y Tan W B Chen and Y L Li ldquoAsianmonetary cooperation and RMB regionalization process anempirical research based on panel SURADF test with a fourierfunctionrdquo World Economy Studies no 1 pp 36ndash47 2015

[7] Y C Park ldquoRMB internationalization and its implications forfinancial and monetary cooperation in East Asiardquo China ampWorld Economy vol 18 no 2 pp 1ndash21 2010

[8] W L Tang L L Qin H Sun and L Q Huang ldquo0e ori-entation of financial policy under the background of RMBregionalization in Guangxirdquo Journal of Guangxi FinancialResearch no 11 pp 40ndash45 2009

[9] Xinjiang Financial Society ldquoResearch on the regionalizationof RMB and the expansion of border trade settlementrdquoXinjiang Finance vol 29 no 11 pp 4ndash19 2007

[10] X Wang ldquoLocal currency settlement of border trade and thedevelopment of RMB regionalizationrdquo Heilongjiang Financevol 28 no 10 pp 29-30 2007

[11] G Liu ldquoA study of RMB internationalizationrdquo Journal of theParty School of the Central Committee of the CPC no 6pp 55ndash59 2012

[12] L Sun ldquoFeasibility study on promoting RMB regionalizationin Yunnan provincerdquo Heilongjiangrsquos Foreign Economic andTrade vol 25 no 8 pp 63ndash66 2011

[13] W L Ding L L Yang and F J Lin ldquoResearch on theinfluencing factors of RMB settlement in cross-border tradean analysis based on Yunnan datardquo Guizhou Social Sciencesvol 296 no 8 pp 80ndash87 2014

[14] T T Wu and R Tang ldquoResearch on the influencing factors ofRMB internationalization in the process of the Belt and Roadinitiativerdquo in Proceedings of the 2018 2nd InternationalConference on Management Education and Social Science(ICMESS 2018) Qingdao China June 2018

[15] J E Blumenstock ldquoFighting poverty with datardquo Sciencevol 353 no 6301 pp 753-754 2016

[16] N Jean M Burke M Xie W M Davis D B Lobell andS Ermon ldquoCombining satellite imagery and machine learning

to predict povertyrdquo Science vol 353 no 6301 pp 790ndash7942016

[17] J Blumenstock G Cadamuro and R On ldquoPredicting povertyand wealth from mobile phone metadatardquo Science vol 350no 6264 pp 1073ndash1076 2015

[18] P Subacchi 3e Peoplersquos Money How China is Building aGlobal Currency Columbia University Press New York NYUSA 2017

[19] S Liao and D McDowell ldquoNo reservations internationalorder and demand for the renminbi as a reserve currencyrdquoInternational Studies Quarterly vol 60 no 2 pp 272ndash2932016

[20] M Friedman ldquoA theoretical framework for monetary anal-ysisrdquo Journal of Political Economy vol 78 no 2 pp 193ndash2381970

10 Complexity

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom

Page 11: A Study of RMB Internationalization Path Based on Border ...downloads.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2019/2834894.pdf · 6/24/2019  · Research Article A Study of RMB Internationalization

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

Applied MathematicsJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Probability and StatisticsHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Mathematical PhysicsAdvances in

Complex AnalysisJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

OptimizationJournal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Engineering Mathematics

International Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Operations ResearchAdvances in

Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Function SpacesAbstract and Applied AnalysisHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

International Journal of Mathematics and Mathematical Sciences

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2013Hindawiwwwhindawicom

The Scientific World Journal

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018Volume 2018

Numerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisNumerical AnalysisAdvances inAdvances in Discrete Dynamics in

Nature and SocietyHindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom

Dierential EquationsInternational Journal of

Volume 2018

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Decision SciencesAdvances in

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

AnalysisInternational Journal of

Hindawiwwwhindawicom Volume 2018

Stochastic AnalysisInternational Journal of

Submit your manuscripts atwwwhindawicom