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A Strategic Assessment of St. Louis: Growth and Equity
Henry S. Webber
Executive Vice Chancellor and Chief Administrative Officer
Professor of Practice, George Warren Brown School of Social Work and Sam Fox School of Art and Architecture
St. Louis Growth and Equity Analysis
• Review success of the St. Louis region and City compared to 14 peer regions on growth and equity
• 2016 and change over time 2000-2016• Data analyzed on three scales:
• MSA• City• Corridors within the City of St. Louis
St. Louis Growth and Equity Analysis
Focused on demographic indicators for growth and equity:• Population• Educational Attainment• Educational Attainment for White and African American• Per Capita Income • Per Capita Income Differential between White and African-American
Regions
─ Atlanta─ Baltimore─ Chicago─ Cincinnati─ Cleveland ─ Columbus─ Denver─ Detroit─ Indianapolis─ Kansas City─ Milwaukee─ Minneapolis─ Nashville─ Pittsburgh
St. Louis Region
St. Louis Region (2016)
• Population: 2,803,449• Racial Composition: 74.2% White, 18.2% Black, 2.9% Hispanic, 4.8% Other
(Asian, Pacific Island, Native American) • % Population 18-34: 22.6%• % Population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher: 32.6% • Per Capita Income: $31,322• Per Capita Income by Race: White: $33,267; Black: $18,261• White/Black Income Ratio: 91.3%• Median House Value: $159,500• Median Monthly Housing Costs: $943
STL Region (2016) - Population
9,528,396
5,612,777
4,296,731
3,488,436
2,803,449
2,780,873
2,752,056
2,354,926
2,146,410
2,070,147
2,061,630
1,995,004
1,968,768
1,794,570
1,571,730
Chicago
Atlanta
Detroit
Minneapolis
St. Louis
Baltimore
Denver
Pittsburgh
Cincinatti
Kansas City
Cleveland
Columbus
Indianapolis
Nashville
Milwaukee
STL Region (2016) – Race/Ethnicity
Other: Asian, Island Pacific, Native American, Two or more racesShown by largest percent White for comparison
86.1%80.4% 77.1% 74.7%
74.2%73.8% 73.3% 73.2% 70.7% 67.6% 67.1% 64.9%
58.1% 53.7% 48.8%
62.0%
8.1% 12.1%7.6% 14.7%
18.2%
14.7% 12.4%15.1% 19.7%
16.4% 22.3%
5.4%28.6%
16.6%32.9%
12.3%
1.6% 2.9%
5.6%3.8% 2.9% 5.1% 8.7% 6.8%
5.3%10.2% 4.2%
22.8%
5.3%
21.6%10.4%
17.3%
4.3% 4.5%9.7%
6.8%4.8%
6.4% 3.3%5.0% 4.3% 5.9% 6.4% 6.9% 8.0% 8.1% 7.8% 8.6%
Other Hispanic Black White
STL Region (2016) – Per Capita Income
$36,998 $36,359 $36,162 $35,474 $33,739
$32,267 $31,728 $31,258 $30,968 $30,399 $30,292 $30,269 $29,822 $29,690 $29,244 $29,829
STL Region (2016) – White* Per Capita Income
* White Alone, Not Hispanic or Latino
$44,796 $44,628 $44,341
$41,407 $40,752 $39,475
$38,084 $36,690
$34,551 $34,258 $34,109 $33,980 $33,796 $33,367 $32,872 $35,457
Chart Title
STL Region (2016) – Black* Per Capita Income
* Black or African American Alone
$25,414
$23,426 $21,807 $21,213 $20,984 $20,860
$19,150 $18,895 $18,791 $18,732 $18,667 $18,637 $17,236 $17,063
$15,566
$20,087
STL Region (2016) – Per Capita Income RatioThe percent difference between white and black per capita incomes
62%
75% 76% 76% 77%81% 82% 84%
89% 92%97%
102%
115%
140%145%
77%
Chart Title
St. Louis Region, Change Over Time (2000-2016)
• Population: Grew by 5.9%
• Change in Race/Ethnicity: Very slight increases in white and black populations. Doubled the % population of Hispanic, although still a small percent (2.9%) of the overall population.
• % Population Age 18-34: No significant change in % of population aged 18-34
• Educational Attainment: In 2000, 25% of the population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher, in 2016 the % increased to 32.6%.
• Per Capita Income: Decrease by 3.6% (2016 adjusted)
• Per Capita Income by Race: White: Increase by 2.7%, Black: Decrease by 6.8% (2016 adjusted)
• Change in White/Black PCI Ratio: 23% Increase in the PCI gap
St. Louis Region (2000-2016) - % Change in Population
31.6%
29.9%
26.3%
19.1%
18.7%
15.1%
14.3%
8.9%
8.7%
5.9%
4.7%
4.7%
-3.1%
-3.5%
-4.0%
13.2%
Atlanta
Nashville
Denver
Columbus
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Baltimore
Cincinatti
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Chicago
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Cleveland
U.S.
St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-16.1%
-15.1%
-11.9%
-8.4%
-6.6%
-6.4%
-6.3%
-5.7%
-4.9%
-4.3%
-3.2%
-0.7%
5.2%
6.0%
6.2%
-4.1%
Detroit
Atlanta
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Nashville
Chicago
Denver
Minneapolis
St. Louis
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Kansas City
U.S.
St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in White* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-14.5%
-8.6%
-7.6%
-5.1%
-2.8%
-2.5%
-2.4%
-1.5%
0.2%
0.5%
2.0%
2.7%
7.6%
9.4%
11.4%
-0.9%
Detroit
Atlanta
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Nashville
Columbus
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Chicago
Denver
Minneapolis
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
Kansas City
U.S.
White alone, not including Hispanic
St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in Black* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-20.4%
-18.0%
-17.4%
-15.0%
-14.9%
-12.3%
-11.6%
-10.8%
-9.5%
-6.8%
-5.5%
-3.6%
-1.1%
-0.4%
9.6%
-3.4%
-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Detroit
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Columbus
Minneapolis
Cincinnati
Denver
Atlanta
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Chicago
Kansas City
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
U.S.
Black alone, not including Hispanic
St Louis Region: (2000-2016) - % Change in the Ratio Between White PCI and Black PCI (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
42%
39%
39%
35%
35%
34%
29%
23%
21%
18%
16%
12%
6%
-1%
-4%
6%
Columbus
Minneapolis
Kansas City
Indianapolis
Denver
Cleveland
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Milwaukee
Chicago
Atlanta
Baltimore
Nashville
U.S. Chart Title
St. Louis City (2016)
• Population: 316,030• Racial Composition: White: 42.7%, Black: 47.8%, Hispanic: 3.9%, Other: 5.5%• % Population Age 18-34: 30%• % Population over 25 with a Bachelors or Higher: 33%• Per Capita Income: $26,040• Per Capita Income by Race: White: $37,617; Black: $15,930• Difference between White and Black Per Capita Income: 136.1%• Median House Value: $123,780• Median Monthly Housing Costs: $810
St. Louis City (2016) – Population
2,714,017
846,674
837,038
683,443
663,303
643,771
621,000
598,672
471,767
456,378
404,670
389,165
316,030
305,305
298,011
Chicago
Indianapolis
Columbus
Detriot
Denver
Nashville
Baltimore
Milwaukee
Kansas City
Atlanta
Minneapolis
Cleveland
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
The City of St. Louis represents 11.3% of the St. Louis Region’s population
St. Louis City (2016) – Racial Composition
Other: Asian, American Indian, Pacific Islander, Two or More RacesShown by largest percent White for comparison
64.4% 60.4% 57.5% 56.5% 55.7% 55.4% 53.4% 48.8%42.7%
37.2%
36.0% 34.3% 32.3% 27.7%
9.5%
62.0%
24.0%
18.5% 27.6% 27.8% 27.9% 28.9%
9.4%
42.8%47.8% 51.9%
38.8%50.1%
30.6%
62.4%
79.4%
12.3%
2.8%
9.6%5.8% 9.9% 10.3% 10.0%
30.8%
3.2% 3.9% 4.8%
18.2%10.8%
29.1%
4.8% 7.5%
17.3%
8.7%11.6% 9.0%
5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 6.5%5.2% 5.5% 6.1% 7.0%
4.8% 7.9% 5.1%3.6%
8.6%
Other Hispanic Black White
St. Louis City (2016) - Per Capita Income
$39,608 $37,488
$34,288
$31,582 $30,128 $29,892 $29,190
$27,775 $26,775 $26,395 $26,040 $25,692
$21,121
$18,432 $15,933
$29,829
St. Louis City (2016) – White* Per Capita Income
$68,269
$44,194 $43,529 $42,989 $41,943 $37,617 $36,629 $35,935 $35,713 $35,281
$31,218 $30,968 $28,636
$24,924
$19,329
35,457
White only, Hispanic not Included
St. Louis City (2016) – Black* Per Capita Income
$22,315
$20,943 $20,104
$19,422 $19,240 $18,635 $18,265 $18,238 $18,217
$16,189 $15,930 $15,653 $15,021 $14,535
$13,943
$20,087
Black alone, not including Hispanic
St. Louis City (2016) – Per Capita Income RatioThe percent difference between white and black per capita incomes
266.3%
199.5%
136.1%126.3% 123.4% 119.8%
93.2% 90.6% 88.0% 85.0%78.8%
71.2% 70.5% 70.0%
23.5%
77.0%
St. Louis City, Change Over Time, 2000-2016
• Population: 9.2% population loss
• Racial Composition: Decline in both white and black populations with very slight increases in Hispanic, Asian, Island Pacific, and two or more races
• Population shift: 14.5% increase in 18-34 year olds as a percentage of total population
• Education: In 2000, 19.1% of the population over 25 had a Bachelors Degree or more, in 2016, 33% of the City’s population over 25 had a Bachelors Degree or more
• Per Capita Income: 9.6% increase
• Per Capita Income by Race: 13.7% increase in white PCI, 5.3% decrease in black PCI
• Income Gap: 53.9% increase in the difference between white PCI and black PCI between 2000-2016
St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Population
19.6%
18.0%
17.6%
9.6%
8.3%
6.8%
5.8%
0.3%
-4.6%
-6.3%
-8.7%
-9.2%
-10.0%
-18.7%
-28.2%
13.2%
Denver
Nashville
Columbus
Atlanta
Indianapolis
Kansas City
Minneapolis
Milwaukee
Baltimore
Chicago
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Cincinnati
Cleveland
Detroit
U.S.
St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-26.6%
-19.5%
-12.6%
-12.5%
-11.5%
-9.1%
-7.2%
-4.7%
2.5%
4.2%
5.4%
6.1%
7.7%
9.6%
10.9%
-4.1%
Detroit
Indianapolis
Cleveland
Columbus
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Nashville
Kansas City
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Denver
Chicago
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Baltimore
U.S.
St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in White* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-24.4%
-14.1%
-8.4%
-8.3%
-7.7%
-7.0%
-6.8%
-3.6%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-0.1%
3.1%
9.7%
16.8%
19.2%
-0.9%
Detroit
Indianapolis
Atlanta
Milwaukee
Columbus
Cleveland
Nashville
Cincinnati
Denver
Kansas City
Chicago
Minneapolis
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Baltimore
U.S.
White Alone, not Hispanic
St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in Black* Per Capita Income (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
-27.2%
-21.2%
-19.7%
-18.7%
-18.3%
-16.8%
-11.0%
-9.9%
-8.2%
-6.8%
-5.5%
-4.0%
-2.1%
0.2%
3.8%
-3.4%
Detroit
Indianapolis
Minneapolis
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Denver
Kansas City
St. Louis
Chicago
Atlanta
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Baltimore
U.S.
St. Louis City (2000-2016) - % Change in the Ratio Between White PCI and Black PCI (In 2016 Adjusted Dollars)
53.9%
49.7%
40.1%
38.4%
32.4%
31.0%
25.1%
24.1%
21.8%
16.4%
13.1%
10.8%
6.8%
-6.2%
-10.7%
6.0%
St. Louis
Minneapolis
Cleveland
Columbus
Cincinnati
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Detroit
Pittsburgh
Denver
Kansas City
Chicago
Milwaukee
Atlanta
Nashville
U.S.
Map
Data analyzed by census tract and grouped into five “Districts” of the City of St. Louis:1. North City
2. North Central Corridor
3. Central Corridor
4. South Central Corridor
5. South City
North Central Corridor
Central Corridor
South Central Corridor
South City
North City
Racial Composition by District, 2016
22,0015,727 14,266 1,817
97,150
22,731
28,121 8,74548,732
38,079
4,317
1,4081,499
669
12,230
Central Corridor Northern Corridor Southern Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts
White African American Other
Note, Hispanic not analyzed separate, included in White or Other
North Central Corridor South Central Corridor
Percent Change in Population by District, 2000-2016
34.1%
-11.7%
-21.8%
-35.3%
-8.5%
Percent Change 2000-2016
North Central Corridor South Central Corridor
Central Corridor
North City Tracts South City Tracts
7.7%
35.0%32.3%
-5.3%-8.3%
-11.3%
-6.3%
-30.7%
0.4%
22.3%
41.9%
48.1%
37.8%
-14.3%
18.6%
White Black Other
Percent Change in Racial Groups by District, 2000-2016
North Central Corridor South Central CorridorCentral Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts
Other: Asian, Island Pacific, Native American, Two or more races
$29,957
$18,554
$25,856
$17,615
$25,066
$33,863
$18,826
$35,179
$14,749
$26,401
2000 2016
Per Capita Income and % Change, (2016 USD), 2000-2016
North Central Corridor South Central CorridorCentral Corridor North City Tracts South City Tracts
13.0% 1.46% 36.0%5..3%- 16%
Regional Conclusions
• Per capita income is average and housing costs are lower than average compared to peer regions. Leads to higher real wage.
• Incomes declined much less from 2000-2016 than in most regions
• Population growing very slowly. A 5.9% population growth and during the same time the U.S. saw a 13.2% population increase.
• Large gaps between black and white per capita incomes that grew between 2000-2016
City Conclusions
• Per Capita Income is below average
• Dramatic and growing difference in black and white per capita incomes
• Continue to lose population, albeit slowly
• All growth occurring in the Central Corridor
• Large geographic area in North St. Louis of greater than 50,000 residents whose economic condition is very poor and getting poorer
Opportunities and Conclusions
• PCI and cost of living data argues that St. Louis is an attractive place to live and should be an attractive place for firms to locate.
• The central corridor of the City is becoming a magnet for the white college educated 18-34 year olds.
• Slow population growth in region and city suggest St. Louis is becoming a less important region, with a weaker ability to attract national amenities and airline hubs.
• Sharp gaps in per capita income by race are morally indefensible, lower long-term economic growth, and set the stage for large-scale social disruption.
A Strategic Assessment of St. Louis: Growth and Equity�Henry S. Webber��Executive Vice Chancellor and Chief Administrative Officer�Professor of Practice, George Warren Brown School of Social Work and Sam Fox School of Art and ArchitectureSt. Louis Growth and Equity AnalysisSt. Louis Growth and Equity AnalysisRegionsSt. Louis RegionSt. Louis Region (2016)Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12St. Louis Region, Change Over Time (2000-2016)Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Slide Number 37Slide Number 38Slide Number 39