A Spatial Approach to Mitigate

Measurement

Error from Undercoverage

Estimates

Michael Tzen May 17, 2014

Outline

Motivation: Survey Inference and Representation

Model: Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Results: Smoothed Rates of Omissions

Conclusion

Non-Sampling Error in Surveys:

Self Similarity

Measurement Error in Coverage:

Self Similarity

𝑂𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 ≔ 𝑀𝐴𝐹2011 − (𝑀𝐴𝐹2008 + 𝑁𝑒𝑤𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝐷𝑆𝐹) Geographical Pattern: South East North

Model: Improve on Observed

Counts

Neighbor = Binary + Queen + Immediate

BYM Model: Besag, York, Mollie (1991)

Results: Improved Maps

Naïve: Fixed Effects Only BYM: Fixed + Random Effects

Raw SMR

Results: Improved Rankings

Census 2010: $13,000,000,000

Operational Goals: Prioritize Tracts after adjusting for substantive and geographic information

Delivery Sequence File: -3.80 Ruralness: +0.60 Renter Tenure: -5.71 (more Variation)

Results: Improved Risk Factors

Conclusion

Thank You