title: ASocietyTransformed:HungaryinTime-spacePerspective

author: Andorka,Rudolf.publisher: CentralEuropeanUniversityPress

isbn10|asin: 9639116491printisbn13: 9789639116498ebookisbn13: 9780585132167

language: English

subject

Hungary--Socialconditions--1989-,Hungary--Economicconditions--1989-,Post-communism--Hungary,Economicstabilization--Hungary.

publicationdate: 1999lcc: HN420.5.A8S631999ebddc: 306/.09439

Hungary--Socialconditions--1989-,

subject: Hungary--Economicconditions--1989-,Post-communism--Hungary,Economicstabilization--Hungary.

Pageiii

ASocietyTransformedHungaryinTime-SpacePerspective

Editedby

RudolfAndorkaTamásKolosiRichardRose

andGyörgyVukovich

CentralEuropeanUniversityPress,Budapest

Pageiv

Publishedby

CentralEuropeanUniversityPressOktóber6.utca12H-1051BudapestHungary

400West59thStreetNewYork,NY10019USA

©1999byCentralEuropeanUniversityPress

DistributedbyPlymbridgeDistributorsLtd.,EstoverRoad,PlymouthPL67PZ,UnitedKingdom

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthepermissionofthePublisher

ISBN963-9116-49-1Paperback

LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataACIPcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailableuponrequest

PrintedinHungarybyAkaprint

Pagev

ContentsListoftables vii

Listoffigures xi

Listofcontributors xii

Acknowledgments xiii

Introduction:ScalingchangeinHungaryTamásKolosiandRichardRose

1

1Long-termmodernizationofHungariansocietyRudolfAndorkaandIstvánHarcsa

21

2Population:birth,marriage,anddeathGyörgyVukovich

50

3DenominationandreligiouspracticeMiklósTomkaandIstvánHarcsa

61

4ThescopeofthestateandprivatesectorsTamásKolosiandEndreSik

73

5Thepost-CommunisteconomiceliteGyörgyLengyel

85

6ThemiddlestrataintransformationZoltánFábián

97

7ConsciousnessofinequalityPéterRóbert

113

8WelfareprogrammesandthealleviationofpovertyIstvánGyörgyTóth

128

9DissatisfactionandalienationRudolfAndorka

147

10Partiesandsocialdivisions:acommonEast-CentralEuropeanpattern?GáborTóka

155

11ThelongandtheshortoftransformationinCentralEuropeRichardRose

179

Index 205

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ListofTables

Table1.1Socialstructure,194993 26

Table1.2Populationandfamily,194893 28

Table1.3Educationalachievement,195593 30

Table1.4Increasedgenderequalityineducation,192090 31

Table1.5Employment,bygender,194990 33

Table1.6Income,195094 35

Table1.7Timebudgets,197793 42

Table1.8Culturalactivities,195093 44

Table1.9Deviance,192093 45

Table1.10Householdsize,194990 45

Table1.11Incomedistribution,196294 46

Table2.1Totalfertilityrateofmarriedwomen 52

Table2.2Agecompositionofpopulation 56

Table2.3Numberandrateofmarriages 57

Table2.4Lifeexpectancyatbirthformenandwomen,196093

59

Table2.5Mortalityratesofmen 59

Table3.1Hungary'sdenominations,18691949 62

Table3.2DenominationalstructureinHungary,195788 63

Table3.3Religiousaffiliationbyage,1992 63

Table3.4Extentofreligiousendogamy 65

Table3.5Religiousaffiliationofgrandparents,parentsandmarriedcouples

66

Table3.6Religiousaffiliationbyeducation,average197891

67

Table3.7Religiousaffiliationandstrengthofcommitment 68

Table3.8Religiousaffiliationandreligiouspractice 70

Table3.9Religiousaffiliationaccordingtobaptismandpractice

70

Table4.1Worktimeinpublic,mixedandprivatesectors 76

Table4.2Worktimeinthepublicandprivatesectors,annualactivity,1993

77

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Table5.1Socio-economiccharacteristicsoftheelite 87

Table5.2Oldandnewleadersintheeconomicelite 89

Table5.3Continuity:previousjobinthesamesector 90

Table5.4Dissatisfactionwithintheeconomicelite 92

Table5.5Eliteattitudestowardsfinancialprospects 92

Table5.6Entrepreneurs,populationandeconomicelitefeelings

93

Table5.7Incomeestimatedanddeemedjust 94

Table6.1Structuralrelationsandtheschemaofclasses 97

Table6.2Thedistributionofearnersbythetypeofworkplace

105

Table6.3Meanhouseholdpercapitaincome,1992and1994

106

Table7.1Classidentification,1991-3 115

Table7.2Changingclassidentificationin1992-3,panelsurvey

115

Table7.3Meansubjectivestatusbysocial-demographiccharacteristics

118

Table7.4Internalstructureofsocialinequalityconsciousness

119

Table7.5Factorsinfluencingsocialstatus 121

Table7.6Dimensionsofsocialstatusfordifferentsocio-demographicgroups

122

Table8.1Povertyratebyhouseholdcharacteristics 131

Table8.2Decilesharesoftypesofincome 135

Table8.3Incidenceofsocialtransfers 137

Table8.4Incomecompositionofsocialpolicytargetgroups

139

Table8.5Marketincomequintilesbytheirhouseholdincomequintile

140

Table8.6Ratiobottomquintilemarketincomes(pre-transferpovertyrates)andtotalhouseholdincomes(post-transferpovertyrates)

141

Table8.7Household-specificpovertyrates 142

Table9.1Satisfactionwithdimensionsofrespondent'slife,1992-4

148

Table9.2ValuesintheInglehartscale,1994 149

Table9.3Psychologicalproblems,1993 150

Table9.4Manifestationsofanomieandalienation,1993 151

Table9.5Self-confidenceandlifegoals,1978,1990and1994

153

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Table10.1Arealistvotes,parliamentaryelections25March1990and8May1994

156

Table10.2Correlationsbetweensocialvariablesandpartypreference

160

Table10.3Correlationbetweeneconomicstatusandpartypreference

165

Table10.4Recalledlistvotesbyeconomicpolicyattitudes,1990and1994

170

Table10.5MSZPvotersbyageandoccupation 176

Table11.1InfantmortalityinCentralEurope 183

Table11.2Life-expectancytrendsinCentralEurope 185

Table11.3Widespreadrejectionofundemocraticalternatives

199

Table11.4Increasesinfreedominpost-Communistsocieties

201

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ListofFigures

Figure0.1aChangingmapofHungary,191441 4

Figure0.1bHungarytoday 5

Figure0.2GrowthrateoftheofficialHungarianeconomy 10

Figure0.3ElectionresultsinHungary,1990-8 13

Figure1.1Stockofeducation,192090 29

Figure1.2Riseinconsumption,195092 36

Figure1.3Improvementinthequalityofhousing,194993 38

Figure1.4Steadyimprovementininfantmortality,190093

39

Figure1.5Trendsinlifeexpectancy;doctorssince1900 40

Figure2.1Totalfertilityrate 51

Figure4.1PrivatesectorinofficialandtotalGDP 74

Figure4.2Publicandprivatesectorsbyeconomicbranch 79

Figure4.3Individualincomeinpublicandprivatesectors 80

Figure4.4Strategiestoearnextraincome 81

Figure4.5Socialservicesprovidedbyemployers 85

Figure6.1Proportionofentrepreneursintheeconomicallyactivepopulation,198293

103

Figure7.1Attitudestowardwealth 124

Figure11.1MathematicalachievementofCentralEuropeanyouths

186

Figure11.2Carownership:makingprogressandfallingbehind

188

Figure11.3PurchasingpowerofCentralEuropeans 190

Figure11.4Importanceofmultipleeconomiesingettingby

191

Figure11.5TrendsinGDP,198996 194

Figure11.6Ratingeconomicsystems:past,presentandfuture

196

Figure11.7Ratingpoliticalsystems:past,presentandfuture

198

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ListofContributorsRudolfAndorka,thelateRector,BudapestUniversityofEconomics

ZoltánFábián,HeadofDepartmentofDataArchivesandInformatics,TÁRKI(SocialResearchInformaticsCentre),Budapest

IstvánHarcsa,HeadofDepartment,CentralStatisticalOffice,Budapest

TamásKolosi,President,TÁRKIandProfessorofSociology,ELTE(EötvösLorándUniversity),Budapest

GyörgyLengyel,ProfessorofSociology,BudapestUniversityofEconomics

PéterRóbert,ProfessorofSociology,ELTEandTÁRKI,Budapest

RichardRose,Director,CentrefortheStudyofPublicPolicy,UniversityofStrathclyde,Glasgow

EndreSik,ProfessorofEconomicSociology,BudapestUniversityofEconomics

GáborTóka,AssistantProfessor,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,CentralEuropeanUniversity,Budapest

MiklósTomka,Director,ResearchCentreforPhilosophyofReligion,InstituteofPhilosophyoftheHungarianAcademyofSciences,Budapest

IstvánGyörgyTóth,GeneralDirector,TÁRKI,Budapest

GyörgyVukovich,formerDirector,CentralStatisticalOffice,Budapest

Pagexiii

AcknowledgementsOURfirstobligationistoacknowledgethankstotheinstitutionsessentialincreatingavolumethatlooksatHungarybroadlyacrossbothtimeandspace.Sinceasocialsciencebookrequiresthetrainingofsocialscientists,thestartingpointistheBudapestUniversityofEconomics,whereRudolfAndorkawasbothProfessorofSociologyandRector.Sincetheanalysisoflong-termsocialtrendsrequiresdata,theCentralStatisticalOffice,ofwhichGyörgyVukovichistheformerDirector,hasmadeanindispensablecontributiontothematerialscontainedherein.Yetthecensusandofficialstatisticsarenottheonlysourceofdata:sincePaulLazarsfeld'spioneeringstudyofunemploymentinAustriaintheearly1930s,samplesurveyshavefrequentlybeenusedtocollectsocialdata.TÁRKI(TársadalomkutatásiInformatikaiEgyesülés;inEnglish,theSocialResearchInformaticsCentre),isthearchiveforsurveydataaboutHungary.TamásKolosiisafounderandnowPresidentofTÁRKI.Inaddition,theGeneralDirector,IstvánGyörgyTóth,hasefficientlyco-ordinatedthecollectionofmaterialsfrommanyauthorsandthemovementofpaperandmachine-readablefilesbetweenBudapestandGlasgow.

OntheScottishside,theCentrefortheStudyofPublicPolicyattheUniversityofStrathclydehasprovidedthecomparativeperspectiveusefulinseeingHungaryinabroaderEuropeanperspective.TheDirector,ProfessorRichardRose,hasbeencomparingmassresponsetotransformationinCentralandEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion,utilizingbothcensusdataandsurveydata.Moreover,HungaryisoneofthetencountriesintheNewDemocraciesBarometerofthePaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna,forwhichRoseactsasinternationalscientificadvisor.

ThisbookhasbeenmadepossiblebyagrantfromtheEuropeanCommission,DirectorateGeneralXII,ScienceResearchandDevelopmentunderthePECO/Copernicusprogramme(ERBCIPAACT930091).ResultsfromresearchinprogresshavebeenpresentedinseminarsatawidevarietyofconferencesandacademicinstitutionsoutsideHungaryaswellaswithinit,includingtheSchoolofSlavonic

Pagexiv

andEastEuropeanStudies,London;theOECD,Paris;theMaxPlanckArbeitsgruppeonTransformationsprozesse,Berlin;theDiplomaticAcademy,Vienna;andtheWorldBank,WashingtonDC.

Ouronlyregretaboutthisbookisthatthesenioreditor,RudolfAndorka,didnotlivetoseeitpublished.Itshouldbeclearfromthecontributionsherebyavarietyofcolleaguesandformerstudentsthathisspiritliveson.

RUDOLFANDORKA,TAMÁSKOLOSI,RICHARDROSEANDGYÖRGYVUKOVICH

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IntroductionScalingChangeinHungaryTamásKolosiandRichardRose

CHANGEandpersistenceareperennialthemesinthesocialsciences.Inpolitics,achangeofregimewhetherfromauthoritarianismtodemocracyorintheotherdirectionshouldmakeabigchangeinsociety.Butforahistorian,itisthelongueduréethatcounts.SinceHungary'sorigininthetenthcentury,changehasbeenaninevitablefeatureofadaptingtoamillenniumoftransformationinCentralEurope.YetthemaintenanceofadistinctiveFinno-Ungarnlanguageandadistinctivenationalculture,notwithstandingcenturiesofrulebyOttomanandAustrianemperors,isformidableevidenceofpersistence.Sociologically,thecriticalquestionis:howcanwedeterminewhatdoesanddoesnotchangeinacountryoverlongandshortperiodsoftime?

Theobjectofthisbookistoexaminethescaleofchangethatis,boththepresenceandabsenceofchangeinHungariansocietyasaconsequenceofthegreattransformationfromaCommunistintoademocraticregime.Todothisrequirescarefulattentiontothecharacterandtempoofdifferenttypesofchangeinsociety.Inademocraticpolity,agovernmentcanchangeovernightwiththeresultofageneralelection,andtheficklenessofpublicandparliamentaryopinionledBritishPrimeMinisterHaroldWilsontoclaim,Aweekisalongtimeinpolitics.However,ademographerseeschangetakingplaceoverdecadesorgenerations.Whilebirthanddeathareinevitable,anincreaseinlifeexpectancyorafallinbirthratestakestwentyyearsorlongertomakeamajorimpactonthepopulationstructureofasociety.GradualchangesnoticeableinHungarian

societyafterthefallofCommunismactuallystartedundertheoldregime.Thisistruenotonlyoffamilylifeanddemographybutinmanyotherfeaturesofsocietyaswell.Infact,itisinthenatureofanon-

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totalitariansocietythatthepoliticalregimedoesnotattempttoplanorcommandwhathappensineveryaspectofsociallifebutacceptswhathappensasaconsequenceofprocessesofchangeincivilsociety.

Withanationalidentitystrongenoughtosurvivemanycenturiesofrulebyforeignpowers,theHungariannationhasshownthecapacitytosurvive.YettheintroductionaftertheSecondWorldWarofaCommunistregimeunderpressurefromSovietoccupationforceswasanabruptdiscontinuityfromthepast.Italsosetintrainprocessesofmodernizationsuchasurbanization,masseducationatthesecondaryanduniversitylevelandwomenenteringpaidemployment.HungarywastheleaderamongCommunistcountriesindistancingitselffromthepoliticalandeconomicorthodoxiesofMarxist-Leninism,eventhoughitwasimpossibletobreakwithMoscow,asthefailed1956Hungarianrevolutiondemonstrated.TheHungarianregimedevelopedgoulashsocialisminanattempttocreateaformofmarketsocialism.PoliticalliberalizationmeantthatHungariansocialscientistscouldundertakeempiricalstudiesoftheconditionsofHungariansociety.EvenbeforetheBerlinWallfell,therulingCommunistPartyhadbeguntonegotiatetheconversionofaPeople'sDemocracyintoademocraticrepublic.

ThecollapseoftheCommunistregimein1989waslessofashockinHungarythanelsewhereintheSovietworldforHungaryhadbeguntomoveinapost-CommunistdirectiondecadesbeforeglasnostandperestroikabecameKremlinslogans.Nonetheless,thefull-scalemovementfromasocialisteconomytoamarketeconomyinthe1990shasinvolvedstructuralchangesthathavegreatlyalteredconditionsformanypeople,someforthebetterandsomefortheworseeconomically.

ALongRoadtoIndependenceandaLongerRoadtoDemocracy

HungariansocietyisasoldorolderthanEnglandorFrance.MagyarstravellingfromeastoftheUralmountainsarrivedinwhatisnowHungaryintheninthcentury.ThefirstHungarianking,Stephen,wascrownedin1001andsecuredtheChristianizationofthecountry.Inmedievaltimesthecrownpassedthroughthehandsofdifferentfamilies,nativeandforeign,androyalterritoryexpandedandcontractedwiththefortunesofwar.ThisperiodclosedwiththedefeatofHungaryatthehandsoftheOttomansunderSuleimantheMagnificentattheBattleofMohácsin1526.Acenturyandahalflater,aftertheTurksfailedintheir

Page3

siegeofVienna,theOttomanforceswithdrew.Thisdidnotmeanindependence,forin1699theHabsburgmonarchygaineddominionoverHungaryandTranslyvania.UnderHabsburgadministration,theGermanlanguageandGerman-speakingpopulationspreadthroughoutmuchofHungary'sterritory.

ThewaveofnationalismthatspreadacrossEuropefollowingtheNapoleonicWarsinvolvedHungary:itsnationalleadersdemandedbothnationalself-determinationandconstitutionalliberalizationintheEnglishfashion.InMarch1848,theHungariandietenactedlawsauthorizingaliberalconstitutionalmonarchyundertheHabsburgcrown;nationalminoritiesinwhatwasthentheterritoryofHungaryprotested.AfterFranzJosefbecametheHabsburgemperorlaterinthatyear,hesoughttorepressconstitutionalchange.InApril,1849,LajosKossuthproclaimedHungaryanindependentrepublic,butitwasshort-lived,surrenderingtoAustrianforcesinAugust1849.

TheAusgleichof1867createdadualmonarchywithFranzJosefcrownedkingofHungaryaswellasbeingemperoroftheAustro-HungarianEmpire.TheterritoryofHungaryatthattimeincludedTranslyvania,Slovakia,Croatia,SloveniaandRutheniaandtheBánát(Figure0.1a).Thus,likeotherpartsoftheHabsburgEmpire,Hungarywasamulti-nationalstate.IndustrializationcommencedandBudapest,thecapitaloftheHungarianEmpire,boomed;itspopulationquadrupledbetween1850and1900.From1869to1910,thepopulationofthewholeoftheterritoryincreasedbyalmosthalf,reachingeighteenmillionjustbeforetheFirstWorldWar.Thesizeofethnicminoritiescreatedadditionalpoliticalcomplications.AttheoutbreakoftheFirstWorldWar,theethniccompositionoftheHungarianEmpirewasbarelyhalfHungarian.ItalsoincludedSlovaks,Romanians,Croats,Germans,Jews,gypsiesandothers.TherewereeconomicdivisionsinHungarybetweenthewell-offminorityandthepoorurbanandruralworkersandalsobetweenan

urbanbourgeoisieandthenobilitythatcontrolledmuchofthecountryside.Therewaslittlescopefortherepresentationofcompetinginterests;inkeepingwiththepracticeelsewhereinEurope,themajorityofmalesandallwomenwerenotallowedtovote.

Independence

TheendoftheFirstWorldWar,inwhichtheAustro-HungarianEmpirewasalliedwithGermany,sawthefalloftheHabsburgmonarchyandtheproclamationofanindependentrepublicbyCountMihályKárolyi,

Page4

Figure0.1aChangingmapofHungary191441

Page5

Figure0.1bHungarytoday

Page6

minister-president.However,thefirstgovernmentofthenewstatepromptlycollapsedasaconsequenceofthelossofterritorytoforeignarmies,theinfluxofrefugeestoBudapestandinflation.ACommunistregimeunderBélaKunseizedpowerinearly1919,seekingtoestablishasovietregimeorientatedtowardMoscow.Itnationalizedlandbelongingtothearistocratsandaggressivelyintimidateditsclassenemies.However,theBélaKunregimewasunabletoresisttheadvanceofRomaniantroopsonitseasternfrontandalliedpressures.InAugust1919,shortlybeforeRomaniantroopsenteredBudapest,KunfledtoMoscow.

Acounter-revolutionwaslaunchedunderAdmiralMiklósHorthy,whorepresentedthemilitaryleadershipinacoalitionofsoldiers,conservativearistocrats,theCatholichierarchyandveryright-wingnationalistsandpeasantsthatdominatedHungarianpoliticsfrom1919untilneartheendoftheSecondWorldWar.In1920AdmiralHorthywasproclaimedregent.WhentheHabsburgemperorsoughttotakepowerthefollowingyeartheattemptfailed.

Thealliedpolicyofnationalself-determinationrecognizedHungary'sstatusasanindependentstatebutalsoappliedthesameprincipletoethnicgroupsseekingindependencefromBudapest.Whendifferentnationalitiesdisputedclaimstoterritory,Hungarytendedtolose,becauseitwasamongthedefeatedpowersintheFirstWorldWar.TheresultwasasubstantialcontractionofHungarianborders.TheTreatyofTrianon,signedoutsideParisin1920,reducedthepopulationofHungaryfromeighteenmillionin1910toeightmillionin1920,andtwo-thirdsoftheterritoryofthepre-1914kingdomwascededtoothercountries.Virtuallyallthenon-Magyarterritoriesweretransferredtonewstates,suchasCzechoslovakiaandYugoslavia,ortoanenlargedRomania,whichhadfoughtonthealliedsideintheFirstWorldWar.ThesettlementleftsubstantialHungarianminoritiesinRomania,theSlovakianpartofCzechoslovakiaandintheVojvodinaintheSerbian

partofYugoslavia.Thereducedterritorywasnow90percentHungarianinitspopulation,butone-thirdofHungarianswereminoritiesinneighbouringcountriesthatgainedterritoryintheTrianontreaty(Figure0.1b).

InterwarHungarywasformallyakingdomwithoutaking,asAdmiralHorthywasthroughoutthisperioditsheadasregent.In1920anelectionwasheldwithafranchiseallowingallmalestovoteandasecretballot;theresultwasnegatedbypoliticalupheavals.Beforethe1922election,alawwasenactedabolishingthesecretballotinruralareas.Giventhelargeholdingsofafewlandownersandthenumericaldominanceofthe

Page7

countryside,thiseffectivelymadeelectionsneitherfreenorfair,eventhoughtheycontinuedtobeheldthrough1935(cf.Bachmann,1969).TheregimecontinuedinatraditioncharacterizedbyJanos(1982)asThePoliticsofBackwardness.

From1921to1931theprimeministerwasIstvánBethlen,wholedaChristiannationalmovementthatgovernedinanauthoritarianmanner;itspowerwasbasedonrurallandowners.ThegovernmentsupportedandwassupportedbytheCatholicChurch,whosemembersconstitutedtwo-thirdsofthepost-TrianonpopulationofHungary.Anti-Semiticlawswereenactedtoappeasetheradicalrightbutwerelittleenforced.Theliberalandsocialdemocraticoppositionwasmoreorlesstoleratedbutineffective.TheworlddepressionhittheagriculturalbaseoftheBethlengovernmenthard,andtheprimeministerresignedinAugust1931,succeededforayearbyasupporter,GyulaKárolyi.

In1932GyulaGömbösbecameprimeministerinaradicalright-winggovernment,thefirstinHungarianhistorynottohaveacountinthecabinet.Hisattacksontheoldconservativeordermadehimapopulist.Hewasananti-SemiteandalsoanadmirerofMussolini'scorporatiststyleofFascism;hisenemiesnicknamedhimGömbölini.Torevivetheeconomy,GömbösnegotiatedatradeagreementwithGermany.PoliticaltieswiththeThirdReichwerealsostrengthened.HediedwhileonatriptoGermanyinOctober1936.Aseriesofconservativearistocratsthenservedasprimeminister;theradicalright'sinfluenceremainedstrong.Asemi-militaryFascistgroup,theArrowCross,claimed200,000members.Thereturnofthesecretballotbeforethe1938electionincreasedtheelectoralweightofpeasantsasagainstlargelandowners,andinthe1939election,eventhoughthepartyofgovernmentclaimedasubstantialmajorityofvotesandseats,theArrowCrosswasabletobecomethesecondlargestpartyinthe260-seatParliamentwithforty-nineseats.

TheSecondWorldWarledtheHungariangovernmenttosidewiththeAxistoregainterritorieslostundertheTreatyofTrianon.Thispolicywasagreeabletobothtraditionalconservativesandradicalrightpopulists.However,thedivisionsbetweenthesegroupsmeantthatconservativestendedtoresisttheaggressiveanti-Semiticandpro-NazipressuresoftheHungarianradicalright.TheAnschlussintegratingAustriawithGermanyin1938gaveHungaryacommonborderwiththeThirdReich.FollowingtheGermanadvanceintoCzechoslovakia,HungaryregainedterritoriesinsouthernSlovakiaandRuthenia.

WhentheSecondWorldWarbrokeout,theHungariangovernmentproclaimeditwasanon-belligerent.InDecember1940,thegovernment

Page8

signedafriendshiptreatywithYugoslavia.However,GermanyinsistedonpassingthroughHungarywhenitinvadedYugoslaviainMarch,1941.Theprimeminister,CountPálTeleki,committedsuicideandHungaryjoinedthewaronGermany'sside.Bysummer1941,HungaryhadregainedhalftheterritorylostintheTreatyofTrianon,andwasapartnerwiththeAxisinthewaragainsttheSovietUnion;inDecember1941itdeclaredwarontheUnitedStates.Whenthetideofwarturned,theHungariangovernmentsoughttowithdrawfromtheAxis.Inresponse,GermantroopsofficiallyoccupiedthecountryinMarch,1944.

TheRedArmyarrives

TheSovietArmyenteredHungaryinautumn1944andbyApril1945hadoccupiedBudapest.Ageneralelection,thefirstfreeelectioneverheldinHungary,occurredon4November1945(Heinrich,1986:27).Thelargestparty,theSmallholders,alinealdescendantofpre-warright-winggroups,won57percentofthevoteandamajorityofseatsinParliament;theSocialDemocratsweresecondwith17.4percentofthevote.TheCommunistswononly17.0percentofthevote,and76ofthe415seatsinParliament.Anewconstitutionwasadoptedin1946andthe1947PeaceTreatyrestoredtheTrianonboundariesofHungarythatremaininplacetoday.

WithSoviettroopsomnipresent,theCommunistPartywasabletoputpressureonpartiesthatwerecoalitionpartnersingovernment,revisetheelectorallawandpurgethevotingregisterofalmostatenthoftheelectorate.Inthe31August1947election,thevotewasevenlydividedamongmanyparties,andtenwonseatsinParliament.TheCommunistsbecamethelargestpartywith22.0percentofthevoteandonehundredseats.ThroughtheircontroloftheMinistryoftheInterior,inearly1948theCommunistsarrestedpoliticalopponents,deposedPrimeMinisterFerencNagyandtookcontrolofthestate.In

1949HungarywasproclaimedtobeaPeople'sRepublic,anewSoviet-styleconstitutionwasadoptedandtheCommunist-dominatedIndependenceFrontwastheonlypartyallowedtocontestanelection.Subsequentelectionswerecontrolledbytheparty.In1947itslistofcandidateswonasmuchas99.7percentofthevoteonaturnoutofnearly99percent(seeBárány,1990;DessewffyandHammer,1995:Tables1and2).

DuringfourdecadesofCommunistruleofHungary,thereweresignificantchangesinpoliticaldirection.TheStalinistperiodcommencedin1949undertheleadershipofPartyGeneralSecretaryMátyásRákosi

Page9

withtheshowtrialontreasonchargesofLászlóRajk,formerministeroftheinterior.CardinalJózsefMindszenty,PrimateofHungary,wasarrestedandchargedwithtreason.Atapublictrialheconfessed,butthereweregroundstosuspecthehadbeenpsychologicallybrainwashedanddrugged;thecourtsentencedhimtolifeimprisonment.Ontheeconomicfront,thefirstfive-yearplancommencedinJanuary1950,promotingindustrializationunderstateownership.

AfterStalin'sdeathin1953thebalanceofpowerwithintheCommunistleadershipalternatedbetweenmoderatesandradicals.ImreNagybecameprimeministerin1953,butreductionofrepressioncosthimthejobandledtoexpulsionfromtheParty.RákosiregainedcontrolasPartysecretary.Khruschchev'sde-StalinizationcampaignledtoRákosibeingdeposedinJuly1956.DemonstrationsinBudapestagainstSovietdominationbeganon23October;Nagywasnamedprimeministerasaconcession.NagysoughttoassertHungary'sindependencebywithdrawingfromtheSoviet-sponsoredWarsawPact.However,MinisteroftheInteriorJánosKádárappealedtotheSovietUniontocrushtheinsurrection,andMoscowrespondedbysendingintanks.TheNagygovernmentappealedtotheUnitedNationsforaid,butitwasnotforth-coming.SoviettroopsbrutallyrepressedHungarianprotestersandtherewassubstantialstreet-fightinginBudapest.ImreNagyandotherleadingministerswereexecuted,andKádárformedanewgovernmentunderSovietprotection.

The1956HungarianrevolutionhadachasteningeffectonbothSovietforcesandHungarianopponents.HardlineCommunistsrealizedthattherewassuchathingastoomuchrepression,leadingtopopularoutbursts.OpponentsofCommunistrulerealizedthattheSovietUnionwouldnotallowtheregimetobeoverthrown,butthatitmightbepossibletoreduce,avoidorgetaroundthemostdislikedfeatures

ofCommunistrule.ThePartymadefewerdemandsonHungarians.Kádárstatedthetermsofthecompromiseintheformula,Thosewhoarenotagainstusarewithus.ElemérHankiss(1990,7;italicsinoriginal)describedtheopponentsoftheregimeashavingironicalfreedom,thatis,thefreedomoflivingoutsidethesysteminwhichtheylived,thefreedomofnotidentifyingthemselveswiththesystem.

Anearlysignofliberalizationwastheamnestyofprisonersfromthe1956revolutionin1963.Theregimesoughttopromoteeconomicgrowthbyintroducingpricesorquasi-pricesintotransactions,thuscreatingwhatwasheraldedasasocialistmarketeconomy.Inhopesofmollifyingthemassofthepeople,theeconomyalsoexpandedthe

Page10

Figure0.2GrowthrateoftheofficialHungarianeconomySources:Compiled

fromCMEAStatisticalYearbookandEconomicCommissionforEurope

productionofconsumergoods;wasdescribedasgoulashsocialism.However,therewerelimitstoliberalization.In1968theHungarianregimereaffirmeditsoppositiontoradicalreformbysendingtroopstosupporttheSovietarmy'sinvasionofCzechoslovakia.

Theinitialburstofinvestmentinthe1950shadbroughtrapidgrowthinanindustrializingeconomy,butmuchofthiswasanartefactofstartingfromaverylowbaseandaneconomybadlyrackedbywar.ThiswasacommonexperienceofcountriesinWesternaswellasCentralandEasternEurope.Inthe1960sgrowthwassustainedatarateofalmost6percentayear,andbenefitsbegantotaketheformofrisingmassconsumption(Figure0.2).Theeconomycontinuedtogrowatarateof6percentinthefirsthalfofthe1970s.

Theeconomybegantoshowvisiblesignsofslowingdowninthelatterhalfofthe1970s,adecadethatsawtwooilpriceshocks.Thegrowthratefrom1976to1980wasonly2.8percentannually,less

thanhalfthatinthetwopreviousfiveyears.Growthslowedevenmoreinthe1980s.From1986to1990theofficialeconomyactuallywentintoreverse.contractingatarateof0.5percentannually.Assubsequent

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chaptersemphasize,officialstatisticsleftoutasubstantialportionofeconomicactivity.Yetsinceofficialstatisticstendtoerronthesideofover-estimatingthesuccessofthecommandeconomy,thereisnodoubtthatgoulashsocialismhadlostitssavourbytheendofthe1980s.

Beforethe1980stheHungarianregimewasliberalwithinaSoviet,butnotaWestern,frameofreference.TraveltoWesterncountrieswaspermittedfrom1961booksandideascouldcirculaterelativelyfreelyinBudapestthereafter.Theelectionlawof1983mademandatorythenominationofmorethanonecandidateforeachelectoraldistrict.ThecandidatesnominatedhadtoworkwithinthelimitationsoftheHungariansystem,butthesystemallowedarangeofopinionstobeexpressedandforvoterstocastmeaningfulvotesagainstcandidatesthattheydisliked(Bárány,1990:78ff).BeforeGorbachev'sproclamationoftheSovietUnion'sneedforopennessandrestructuring,Hungarianswerealreadypractisingwhathewastopreachthere.

TheopeningofdivisionsintheSovietUnionencouragedHungariandissenterstogopublicwithcriticismsoftheirregime,andmadeJánosKádárrespondinarelativelytolerantratherthanrepressivefashion.InSeptember1987,theHungarianDemocraticForumwasfoundedtomobilizesupportforchange.InMarch1988,theAllianceofYoungDemocratswasfoundedwitharulethatmemberscouldnotbelongtoanyotheryouthorganization,thatis,theCommunistleague.Laterintheyear,theIndependentSmallholderspartywasfounded,anamelinkingitwithinterwarpolitics.

DivisionsinthegoverningHungarianSocialistWorkersPartyemergedbetweenreformers,ledbyImrePozsgay,andhardlinerswhoopposedanychange.InMay1988JánosKádárwasdeposedfromtheleadership.Thebalanceofpowerwithinthegovernmenttipped

towardreform.InFebruary1989theCentralCommitteeacceptedtheintroductionofmulti-partydemocracy.Roundtabletalkscommencedonthedraftingofanewelectorallaw.ReformCommunistsarguedforapopularlyelectedpresidencywithexecutivepowers,believingthattheirleader,Pozsgay,wouldwin.Inareferendumon26November1989theproposalwasrejectedbyabaremajority.Bythistime,thegoverningpartyhadalreadydissolveditselfandreformedastheHungarianSocialistParty(foraccountsofthechange,seeforexampleSzoboszlai,1991;forthelongerperiod,seeTokes

*,1996).

HungarywasintheleadinformallyrejectingtheCommunistregime;amonthbeforetheBerlinWallfell,theParliamentoverwhelminglyendorsedanewconstitutionthatdeclaredinitspreamble:

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TheHungarianRepublicisanindependent,democratic,law-basedstateinwhichthevaluesofbourgeoisdemocracyanddemocraticsocialismholdgoodinequalmeasure.Allpowerbelongstothepeoplewhichtheyexercisedirectlyandthroughtheelectedrepresentativesofpopularsovereignty.

InanexplicitslapatCommunistdomination,thepreambleadded,Nopartymaydirectanyorgansofstate.

Areturntodemocracy

Thefirstfreeelectionsinthenewpost-CommunistHungarywereheldon25March1990.TheresultwasaresoundingdefeatfortheSocialistParty,thereformistsuccessorofthepartyoftheoldregime,whichdissolveditselfinOctober1989.Itspartylistsecuredlessthan11percentofthevote,andunderHungary'scomplicatedelectorallawtookonlythirty-threeofthe386seatsinthenewParliament.ThewinnerwastheDemocraticForum,aconservativeparty(Figure0.3).Thecomplexelectoralsystemcombinedelementsoffirst-past-the-postandproportionalrepresentation.TheresultwasaverydisproportionaldistributionofseatsinParliamentincomparisonwithactualvotes.TheDemocraticForumwon42percentoftheseatswith25percentofthevote,whilesmallpartiessecuringintotal16percentofthevotewonlessthan3percentoftheseats.AreferendumwasheldinJuly1990todecidewhetherthepresidentshouldbedirectlyelected.Becauseonly14percentturnedouttovote,theproposalfailed.AformerdissidentÁrpádGöncz,waselectedpresident.

TheleaderoftheDemocraticForum,JózsefAntall,becameprimeministerofacoalitiongovernmentwithtwoconservativepartiesaspartners,theIndependentSmallholdersandtheChristianDemocrats.Together,thethreepartiesheld59percentoftheseatswith43percentofthevote.Theparliamentaryoppositionconsistedofamixture

ofoldCommunistsandpro-marketliberalparties.

Thenewgovernmentsoonfoundthattheslowingdownoftheeconomythathadbeguninthemid-1970s,andhadturnedintoafullfledgedrecessionbythe1980s(Figure0.2),couldnotbereversedbyelectionresults.TheliberalizationofpricesinacommandeconomywasinadequatetoprepareHungaryforamarketeconomy(cf.Kornai,1992).Theofficialeconomycontractedby12percentin1991.Bytheendof1993,theofficialeconomyhadcontractedby15percent(seeChapter11,Figure11.5).Whilethisslumpwasfarlessthanthatof

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Figure0.3ElectionresultsinHungary,1990-8,voteswonbyeachparty(%)Source:Table10inChapter10,supplementedbyfirst-round

ballotofMay1998

somepost-Communistcountries,itwasenoughtocreatewidespreadpopulardissatisfaction.

By1993thenewgovernmentwasinpoliticalcrisis.Theprimeministerwaschallengedbytheparty'sultra-nationalistright,ledbyIstvánCsurka,whowasexpelledwithafewparliamentarycolleagues.Theprimeministerwasasickman,anddiedinDecember.SándorLezsáktookoveraspartyleaderandprimeminister.ButthechangesinthepartycouldnotsaveitfromdisasterintheMay1994election.TheDemocraticForum'sshareofthepopularvotedroppedto12percentanditsshareofseatsinParliamentdroppedtolessthan10percent.TheelectionwinnerwastheHungarianSocialistParty,whichhadsufficientlypurgeditselfofitsCommunistpasttosecureadmissiontothesocialdemocraticSocialistInternational.TheSocialistPartytookathirdofthevoteand,thankstothemechanicsoftheelectoralsystemanddivisionsamongitsopponents,itwonanabsolutemajorityofseatsinParliamentandGyulaHornbecameprimeminister.TheextremerightJusticeandLifePartyofCsurkawononly1.6percentofthepopularvoteandfailedtowinanyseats.

Facedwithcontinuingeconomicdifficulties,thenewSocialistgovernmentacceleratedmarketreforms,cutpublicspendinganddevaluedthecurrency.HungarygainedinternationalrecognitionforitsmovetothemarketwithitsadmissiontotheOrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),theParis-basedclubofadvancedindustrialnations.However,economicmeasurescausedsubstantialdifficultieswithinthegoverningparty,leadingtoresignationsofcabinetministers.

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ThegovernmentemphasizeditsWesternorientationbyseekingmembershipinNato;inaNovember1997referendumthiswasendorsedbymorethanfive-sixthsofthosevotinginaturnoutofjustunder50percent.Theeconomystartedtogrowslowly;bytheendof1997theofficialnationalproductwaswithinfivepointsofitsstandingin1990andtheunderlyingeconomywasfarhealthier,thankstothesqueezingoutofinefficienciesintheplannedeconomy,thedevelopmentofnewmarket-orientedenterprisesandforeigninvestmentinproducingnewfactories.AndHungariansstillhadtheresourcesofunofficialeconomiestocushionthemselvesfromdifficulties.

Theessentialofdemocracyiscompetition,andthe1998parliamentaryelectionestablishedHungary'scredentialsasaworkingdemocracyforthegovernmentofthedaywasonceagainturnedoutofoffice.Thechangeinvoteswasfarlessthanthechangeinseats:theSocialistshareofthevotefellbylessthan1percentbutitlostseventy-fiveseatsanditsparliamentarymajority.TheCsurkaPartywonjustenoughvotestogainrepresentationinParliament,butmorethannine-tenthsoftheHungarianelectorateonceagainrejectedextremistparties.ThebigwinnerwasFIDESZ,initiallyapartyofyoungdemocratsrestrictingmembershiptothoseundertheageof35,butsubsequentlybroadeningitsappealafteradisastrous1994electionshowing.FIDESZwon148seatsandformedacoalitiongovernmentwiththemoreright-winginclinedIndependentPartyofSmallholdersandtheDemocraticForum.TheFIDESZleader,ViktorOrbán,becameprimeminister.AmajorpriorityofthenewgovernmentistonegotiateHungarianentryintotheEuropeanUnion.

PathDependenceandChangingPaths

Thelogicofpathdependenceissimple:whathappenstodayislargelydeterminedbywhatwasdoneyesterday.Byextension,whathappened

lastyear,adecadeago,orevenacenturyago,candeterminewhatisdonetoday,asinthetechnicallyobsoletebutstillpersistinglayoutofatypewriterkeyboard(seeDavid,1985).Takenliterally,dependenceonwhathappensyesterdaycanbetrueyetbanal:acountry'sgrossnationalproductislikelytochangebyabout0.01percentfromonedaytothenext,thedemographiccompositionofthepopulationvarieslittlefromoneyeartothenextandthegreatbulkofthelawsonthestatutebookatthebeginningofayearwereplacedthereyears,decadesorevengenerationsbefore.InasocietysuchasGreatBritain's,whichhasnotunder-

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gonethetraumaoftransformationfromaCommunisttoademocraticregime,politicalinertiamaintainsmuchinplacefromonedecadetothenext,reflectingthepreferencesoftheelectorateandofcompetingparties(seeRoseandDavies,1994).

Yetitissophisticaltoassumethatbecauseeachchangeisverysmall,thesumofsmallchangesisalsosmall.Changesinthedemographiccompositionofsocietyarepredictable:foreverymemberofsocietywilldie,andoldpeoplewilldiemuchsoonerthanyounger.Therefore,demographerscandescribewithsomeprecisiontheincreaseintheratioofpensionerstotheworkingpopulationintheyear2020or2030,ortheriseintheeducationallevelofthepopulation,asyoungercohortstendtohavemoreeducationthantheoldestcohorts.Eventhoughsuchchangeshappenslowly,theircumulativeeffectcanbebig.Insomecases,thecompoundingofchangescancauseafundamentalalterationinthecompositionofsociety.

AnyreviewofHungarianpoliticalhistoryshowsthatcontinuityisthewrongwordtodescribeapaththatincludeswar,conquest,defeatandindependence.Changescannotevenbedescribedasreversalsforthatwouldimplyastableframeworkofcyclicalchange.IndependencedisappearedthroughOttomanconquest,andsubsequentlywiththeexpulsionoftheTurksandthearrivalofHabsburgrule.TheindependenceachievedaftertheFirstWorldWarwasatthepriceoflosingterritoryinwhichmillionsofHungarianslived.DefeatintheSecondWorldWarwasfollowedbytheintroductionofaCommunistregimewiththerevolutionaryintentoftransformingHungariansociety,polityandeconomy.Thecollapseofthatregimeandthecreationofanewdemocraticpoliticalsystemin198990waspartofapoliticalrevolutionthatcoveredhalfofEuropeandtheformerSovietUnion.

Ifweviewhistoryasalearningprocess,thepastremains

influentialbutitsinfluenceisambiguous,dependingonthelessonspeoplelearnfromtheirpast.TheconsequencesofflirtingwithpopulistFascismandalignmentwithHitler'sReichtaughtHungariansalessonaboutthecostsofright-wingradicalparties.The1956uprisingtaughtHungariansthattheylackedthemilitarypoweroralliestodefendthemselvesagainstSovietdemandsiftheSovietUnionwishedtocoerceHungary.TheresistanceoftheHungarianstaughtMoscowtheproblemsofusingforcetorepresssubjectstates.

Theextentofcontinuityalongapreviouslysetpathvariesfromfieldtofield.Thehighpointsoftwentieth-centuryHungarianpoliticsshowradicalpoliticalchanges,suchastheswitchfromsubjugationtoa

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foreignrulertonationalindependenceortheshiftfromanauthoritarianregimetoCommunismandthentoademocraticconstitution.Whilesuchshiftsoccurinamatterofmonthsorayearortwo,everydayconditionsinHungariansociety,suchasgenderratios,birthratesordeathrates,changebylessthan1percentfromoneyear,orevenonedecade,tothenext,andwecanmonitorthemthroughcensusstatistics.Changesinvaluesandbeliefsoftenlackregularityandpredictability.Tomonitorsuchchangeswemusthavedatafromsamplesurveysofpublicopinion;theyhavebeenundertakenlongerinHungarythaninmostformerlyCommunistsocieties.SincetheeditorsofthisbookincludethreefoundersofTÁRKI,themajorsocialsciencesurveyinstituteinthecountry,useisfrequentlymadeofsurveydatatomonitorchangesinwhatpeoplethinkandwhatpeopledo.

Theideaofwhatconstitutesabigorasmallchangeisrelative,andourideasareshapedbycomparison.Thisisimplicitincomparingpastandpresent;thelongerthetimeperiod,thebiggerthechangewewouldexpecttosee.ComparisonbetweenCommunistandpost-Communistcountriesisusefultodeterminewhatmayconstituteahighorlowstandardoflivingwithinthecontextofanon-marketeconomy.Comparisonbetweennon-marketandmarketeconomiesismuchmorerisky,becauseoftheabsenceofsuchcomparatorsasprices.However,manysocialtrendscanbemonitoredacrossgreatspansoftimeandspacesincecensusstatisticstendedtobestandardizedacrossEuropewellbeforetheimpositionoftheIronCurtain.Forlong-termcomparisons,thisvolumemakesuseofcomparativedatafromcensusesofmanyEuropeancountries,andtocompareresponseinthepost-Communistera,useismadeoftheNewDemocraciesBarometer,atrendsurveyofmassresponsetotransformationbythePaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna.

Thechaptersthatfollowprovideconcreteexamplesofbothcontinuity

andchangewithinaregimeaswellasacrosslandmarkpoliticalupheavals.InChapter1,RudolfAndorkalooksatthemodernizationofHungariansocietysincetheendoftheSecondWorldWar.Atthattime,Hungaryhadanunderdevelopedeconomyandsociety;morethanhalfthewageearnerswereinagricultureandeducationwasverylimited.Bythebeginningofthe1970sHungarywasapproachingthestandardsofanadvancedindustrialsocietyintermsofurbanization,educationandoccupationalstructurewithagrowingmiddleclass.ThescaleofchangesencouragedsomeWesternanalyststotreatsuchchangesasevidenceoftheconvergenceofCommunistandnon-Communistsystems,exceptforproblemspeculiartothepoliticalandeconomicstructureofanon-

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marketparty-state.However,Hungarianscouldnotignorethesepeculiarities,whichremainedcentraltotheirsocietyuntilthecollapseoftheregime.

Thesecondchapter,byGyörgyVukovich,takesasimilarlylong-termviewofpopulationandidentifiessocialchangesinHungarycommontomostadvancedindustrialsocieties.Thebirthratehasbeenfallingsubstantiallyfromthe1920stothe1940s,andhascontinuedtofallsince.Today,thenumberofchildrenbornislessthanthereplacementrateforthetotalpopulation.Inconsequence,theproportionofthepopulationofretirementageisincreasing,andbecauseofthedecliningbirthratesandlongerlifeexpectancy,thistrendissuretocontinueintothenextcentury.However,increasedlongevityhaswidenedinequalitiesbetweenmenandwomen.In1960thelifeexpectancyofwomenwas4.2yearsgreaterthanformen.By1996thegapinlifeexpectancyhadbecome8.1yearsbetweenHungarianwomenandmen.Moreover,thelifeexpectancyofmalesfellafterreachingapeakin1966,whilethelifeexpectancyofwomencontinuedtoriseuntil1987,andhasremainedvirtuallyconstantsince.

Religion,abasisoftraditionalloyalties,hashistoricallybeenasourceofdivisioninHungariansociety,whichhashadlargeCalvinist,LutheranandJewishminoritiesaswellasaCatholicmajority.Inpre-TrianonHungarytherewasevengreaterreligiousdiversity,withafifthofthethenpopulationOrthodox,Jewish,Moslemorotherreligions.Theanalysisoflong-termtrendsinreligiousdenominationandreligiouscommitmentbyMiklósTomkaandIstvánHarcsainChapter3showsthattheproportionofnominalCatholicshasremainedatabouttwo-thirdsoftheHungarianpopulationsincethe1940s,andtheLutheranminorityhasbeenmorestableinsizethantheCalvinists.However,thestrengthofreligionvarieswiththemethodofmeasurement:bymanycriteria,halforlessoftheHungarianpopulationtodayisreligiousorregularchurchgoers.Thisistrueof

manydenominationsandthistrendisalsofoundinnon-CommunistcountriesinCentralEurope.

ThetransformationofHungaryfromaCommunisttoapost-Communistsocietywasofmajorpoliticalsignificance,butitwasnot,andwasnotintendedtobe,asocialrevolutionorcounter-revolution.Thechangehasbeenmostdramaticintheeconomy,forthecollapseoftheMarxisteconomicsystemhasmeanttherapidexpansionofemploymentintheprivatesector,withallthatmayportendforeconomicgrowth,changesinsocialstatusandinpoliticalattitudes.Nonetheless,KolosiandSikdemonstrateinChapter4thatthechangeislessabreak

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withthepastthanmightbeexpected,giventheimportanceofhiddenorshadoweconomiesinthedaysofthenominallystate-controlledeconomy.Theseeconomieswereaccountingforafifthormoreofthenationalproductbeforetheoldsystemcollapsed.

Aclassicsociologicalmethodfortracingchangeandcontinuityistoexaminethecareersofthenewelite.InChapter5GyörgyLengyelexaminestheHungarianeconomicelitetoday.TherehasbeensubstantialchangeinthepersonnelandsocialbackgroundsofindividualsinleadingpositionsoftheHungarianeconomy.Yetin1993,withananti-Communistconservativegovernmentinpower,thechangeswerefarfromcomplete.Ofthoseholdingtopjobsinstateenterprises,68percenthadbeentherepriortotheregimechange,andinbankingandtheministriesmorethanhalfweretherebefore1989.

Thetransformationhasbroughtcostsaswellasbenefits,affectingthesocialpsychologyofthemiddlestrata,asZoltánFábiánpointsoutinChapter6.TheevolutionofHungariansocietyhasfollowedapatternfamiliartoWesternsociologists.Eventhoughcapitalistsintheconventionalmarketeconomysensedidnotexistunderthecommandeconomy,managerialpowerandpartypowerdid.Moreover,thehiddeneconomyofferedscopeforindividualstobetterthemselves.Withamultiplicityofmiddlingclasses,Hungariansocietywasthereforewellplacedtorespondtoashifttoamoremarket-orientedeconomy.

Thecomplexityofamodernsociety,whethernominallysocialistornominallycapitalist,inevitablybringswithitdifferentiation,andthisleadstoinequalitiestoo.ThiswastrueofHungaryunderCommunistrule,andalsosince1989,asPéterRóbertshowsinChapter7.Insociologicalterms,inequalitiesarenotsomuchamatterofincomeasofoccupationalclassandsocialstatus.Róbertshowsthatthecorrelationsbetweendifferentobjectiveandsubjectivemeasuresof

socialstatusarelimited,thusmakinganindividual'srelativepositiononmeasuresofinequalityvaryfrommeasuretomeasure.ThisisconfirmedbyevidencefromtheHungarianHouseholdPanelwhichshowsthatasubstantialminorityofthepopulationdoesnotmaintainaconsistentclassidentificationfromyeartoyear.

Theoldcommandeconomyhadnotabolishedpoverty;uptoapoint,ithadmademoneylessimportantasasourceofprivilegethanotherthings,suchaspositionintheCommunistnómenklatúra.Italsocollectivizedtheprovisionofwelfare,providingasafetynetforeveryoneandguaranteeingajob,butalsorunningtheeconomyinsuchawaythattheaveragecitizenwaspoorcomparedtotheaveragecitizeninamarket

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economysuchasAustriaorItaly.Yetwhatevertheaveragestandardofliving,therewillalwaysbeagroupclusteredatthebottomthatcanbedescribedaslivinginpoverty.InChapter8IstvánGyörgyTóthanalysestheproblematicnatureofdefiningpovertyinHungary,andthenpresentsevidenceofwhathasbeenhappeningsincetheeconomictransformation.Thisshowsthatthoseinpovertytodayformaboutone-sixthtoone-fifthoftheHungarianpopulation.However,somegroupshaveamuchhigherincidenceofpoverty:forexample,loneparents,theunemployedand,aboveall,gypsies;povertyisleastinBudapest.Theincidenceofpovertyandincomeinequalityisoffsettosomeextentbycash-transferprogrammes,fortheendoftheCommunistsystemdidnotmeantheabolitionofpensions,children'sallowancesandotherformsofstateassistance.

TheemphasisonmaterialismiscommoninbothMarxistandmarketeconomies.Yettheextenttowhichanindividualissatisfiedordissatisfiedwithlifeisapsychologicalstateofmind,andthisisevenmoretrueoftheextentofsocialexclusionintegrationoralienation.InChapter9RudolfAndorkamarshallspublicopiniondatatoshowtheextenttowhichHungariansdoordonotfeelsatisfiedwithlife.Attheinterpersonallevel,thereisahighdegreeofsatisfactionwithfamilyandworkandhealth,butthissatisfactionco-existswithahighlevelofmaterialisticdissatisfactionwithincome.

FreeandfairelectionsgiveHungarians,liketheirWestEuropeancounterparts,achancetoregistertheirapprovalordisapprovalofgovernment.In1990Hungariansvotedthepartycreatedbyex-Communistsoutofoffice;in1994theyvotedex-Communistsbackintoofficeandoutagainin1998,apatterncommoninCentralandEasternEurope.Yetademocraticelectionnecessarilyrevealsdivisionsamongtheelectorate.InChapter10GáborTókaexamineswhataccountsfordifferencesinthepartypreferencesofHungarianssocialstructureinfluencessuchasage,classandeducation

orpoliticalattitudesandhowelectoraldivisionsinHungarycomparewithelectoralbehaviourintheCzechRepublic,SlovakiaandPoland.

Todeterminetheextentofchangeinthepasthalf-centuryinsuchfundamentalsofsocialconditionsashealth,education,employmentandlifeexpectancy,theconcludingchapterbyRichardRosecomparescensusdataaboutHungaryandneighbouringnationsinCentralEurope,includingAustriaandGermany,withwhichHungaryhashadfarclosertiesoverthecenturiesthanwithRussia.ItassessestheextenttowhichcurrentconditionsofHungariansocietyarenormalwhenjudgedbytwo

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verydifferentstandards:comparisonwithneighbouringsocialmarketdemocraciesasagainstneighbouringex-Communistsocieties.ItalsousessurveydatafromtheNewDemocraciesBarometer,across-nationalsurveyofpublicopinioninpost-Communistcountries,toassesstheextenttowhichHungariansarenostalgicforthepastinviewofeconomicdifficulties,ordeterminednottogobacktoanundemocraticformofgovernmentbecausetheyarepositiveaboutgainsinfreedom(Roseetal.,1998).

References

Andorka,Rudolf,1990.ChangesinSocialMobilityinHungary,19301983.InM.Haller,ed.,ClassStructureinEurope.Armonk,NY:M.E.Sharpe.

Bachmann,Gerhard,1969.Ungarn.InDolfSternbergerandBernhardVogel,eds,DieWahlderParlamente.Berlin:WalterdeGruyter,vol.2.,1365-405.

Bárány,ZoltánD.,1990.ElectionsinHungary.InRobertK.Furtak,ed.,ElectionsinSocialistStates.HemelHempstead:Wheatsheaf,7197.

David,PaulA.,1985.ClioandtheEconomicsofQWERTY,AmericanEconomicReview,75,1,332-7.

Dessewffy,TiborandHammer,Ferenc,1995.TheTransitioninHungary.InG.Tóka,ed.,The1990ElectiontotheHungarianNationalAssembly.Berlin:Sigma,1131.

Hankiss,Elemér,1990.EastEuropeanAlternatives.Oxford:ClarendonPress.

Heinrich,Hans-George,1986.Hungary:Politics,EconomicsandSociety.London:FrancesPinter.

Janos,AndrewC.,1982.ThePoliticsofBackwardnessinHungary,18251945.Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Kornai,János,1992.TheSocialistSystem:thePoliticalEconomyofCommunism.Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Rose,Richard,Mishler,WilliamandHaerpfer,Christian,1998.DemocracyandItsAlternatives:UnderstandingPost-CommunistSocieties.Cambridge:PolityPressandBaltimore:JohnsHopkinsPress.

Rose,RichardandDavies,PhillipL.,1994.InheritanceinPublicPolicy:ChangewithoutChoiceinBritain.NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress.

Szoboszlai,György,ed.,1991.DemocracyandPoliticalTransformation.Budapest:HungarianPoliticalScienceAssociation.

Tóka,Gábor,ed.,1995.The1990ElectiontotheHungarianNationalAssembly.Berlin:Sigma.

Tokes

*,RudolfL.,1996.Hungary'sNegotiatedRevolution:EconomicReforms,SocialChangeandPoliticalSuccession:19571990.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.

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Chapter1Long-TermModernizationofHungarianSocietyRudolfAndorkaandIstvánHarcsa

THEhistoryofHungaryoverthelasttwocenturiescanbeinterpretedasaseriesofattemptsatmodernizationandcatchingupwithmoreadvancedWesternsocietiesinordertobreakoutfromasemi-peripheralposition(Janos,1982).Theseattemptsweremoreorlessfailuresandsometimesendedincatastrophe.Thereformperiodof182549endedinthedefeatoftheHungarianwarofindependence,thedualmonarchyendedintheFirstWorldWarandtheinterwarperiodendedinthedevastationoftheSecondWorldWar.

TheCommunistor,accordingtotheself-definitionoftherulingelite,socialistperiodmightalsobeinterpretedasanattemptatmodernization.TherulingpartyelitebaseditslegitimationincreasinglyontheclaimthatitcouldachieveahigherrateofeconomicgrowthandthatHungarywouldsoonerorlatercatchupwiththemoreadvancedcapitalistsocietiesoftheWest.Ineconomictermsthisclaimwasfalsified,sinceby1990HungarywasfartherbehindthecountriesofWesternEuropethanbeforetheSecondWorldWar(Ehrlich,1991;Bekker,1994).

The1989changeswererevolutionaryinthesenseofcreatingmajorandrapidchangesinbotheconomicandpoliticalstructuresandinstitutions(Dahrendorf,1990).Changeintheeconomicsphereconsistedofamovefromamoreorlesscentrallyplannedeconomybasedonthepredominanceofstateownershipofproductiveassetstoamarketeconomywiththeprivatesectorcontrollingmorethan50percentofproductiveassets.Changeinthepoliticalsystemresultedinamovefromaone-partydictatorshipthatwasinitiallytotalitarian

whichlatersoftenedintoanauthoritariansystemandthentoamulti-partyparliamentarydemocracy,wheretheoppositionin1990andin1994wasabletowinan

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electionandformanewgovernment,inaccordwiththerotationofleadersinademocracy.Thesystemtransformationisprovingtobemoredifficultandlongerthanexpected.Hungaryisgoingthroughaseriouseconomicdepression.Thisdepressionmightbeinterpretedasaconsequenceofthenecessarycreativedestructionofoldstructures(Kornai,1993).MorepessimisticevaluationspredictthepossibilityofHungaryfallingbackintoaperipheralsituationintheworldeconomyandspeakaboutBalkanizationorLatinamericanizationofHungary.

ThesocialindicatorspresentedinthischapterprovidethebasistoanalyseinwhatsenseandhowmuchHungariansocietyhasbeenmodernizedsince1945.Theresearchhasbeencarriedoutsincethemid-1970sinHungaryandthefirsttime-seriescompendiumofsocialindicatorswaspublishedinHungarianin1986andinEnglishin1988(AndorkaandHarcsa,1990).Since1990socialreportsinHungarianarepublishedattwo-yearintervalsandtheSocialReport1990wastranslatedintoEnglish(Andorkaetal.,1992).ThepresentanalysisisbasedontheSocialReportpublishedinHungarianin1994.Thesocialindicatorsencompassingthefirstfourpost-transitionyearsevaluatechangeandpersistenceinordertojudgewhetherHungaryhasstartedasuccessfulmodernizationorismovingtowardperipheralizationandlong-lastingbackwardness.

ModernizationTheoryandPeriodsofDevelopment

Modernizationtheoryisconsideredthemostappropriatetheoreticalframeworkfortheanalysisoftime-seriesofsocialindicators.Modernityisheredefinedasconsistingoffourinterrelatedaspectsofsociety:themarket,awelfaresystem,ademocraticpartysystemandamodernmentality(Zapf,1994).Thesocialindicatorsusedtomeasuretheseaspectsarethenumericalstrengthofthemiddlestrata,populationandfertilitymeasures,formaleducationalattainmentindicators,incomeandincomeinequalitymeasures,mass

consumption,healthstatusandlifeexpectancyofthepopulationandleisuretime.

Thesystemchangein1989wasabreakpoint,separatingtwoentirelydifferentperiods.Themulti-partyparliamentaryelectioninspring1990introducedpoliticaldemocracyandmovementtowardthemarketeconomy.Themajorcauseofthesystemchangewasthatthepublic,professionalsinfluencingpublicopinion,thegovernmentandtheopposi-

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tionincreasinglyrecognizedthatthesocialistmarketeconomycouldnotfunctionefficientlyandthatmanagersofthestate-ownedenterpriseswouldneverbehavelikeprivateentrepreneursinamarketeconomy.Theydevelopedtheviewthatthestate-ownedenterpriseshadtobeprivatized,butthatitwasimpossibletoimplementmassprivatizationundertheruleofoneparty,interestedinmaintainingitsdominanceintheeconomyviaownershipofthemajorproductiveenterprises(Kornai,1992).Itwasalsorecognizedthatmarket-orientedreformsandprivatizationofstate-ownedenterpriseswasnotsufficient.Inadditionthepoliticalsystemalsohadtobechanged.Thestructuralandinstitutionalchangessince1989arebasedonawidespreadconsensusconcerningthegoalofamarketeconomybasedonprivateownershipandpoliticaldemocracy.

However,theCommunistperiodfrom1945tospring1990shouldnotbetreatedasuniform.NorwastherealineardevelopmentfromthedeathofStalinin1953tothecollapseofthesystemin1989.SubperiodscanbedistinguishedthatdiffernotonlyinthecharacteristicsofthemacroeconomicandpoliticalsystemsbutalsointheeverydaylivesofordinarycitizensduringCommunisttimes.

Thefirstperiod,1945to1947,representedtheliberationofthecountryfromGermanoccupationandtheonsetofSovietoccupation.ForsomewhatmorethantwoyearssomeformaldemocracywastoleratedbytheSovietUnion.Theparliamentaryelectionof1945wasfreeandresultedinanabsolutemajorityfortheSmallholder(Peasant)Party,whichformedacoalitionwithotherparties,includingtheCommunistParty.TheparliamentaryelectionofAugust1947wasstillamulti-partyelection,buttheCommunistPartycommittedseriousfrauds.Nevertheless,theCommunistswereonlyabletoobtain22percentofthevote.Soonafter,theCommunistseliminatedsomeoppositionpartiesfromParliamentandabsorbedothersinaCommunistfronttobetheunchallengedrulersofthecountry.

Thesecondperiod,1947tothemid-1960s,wasthetotalitarianperiod.AsmallpowerelitebelongingtotheCommunistPartycompletelydominatedthepoliticalandeconomicsystem.Notonlywaspublicoppositionsuppressed,buttheprivateexpressionofcriticalviewswasseverelypunished.Falsecriminalchargesandtrialswereconductedagainstpoliticiansandordinarycitizenswhowereconsideredbythepowerelitetobepotentialopponents.Themostimportantenterprisesweretakenoverbythestateandthecollectivizationofagriculturebegan.Bymeansofacommandeconomyarapidindustrializationprocesswasinitiatedbysettingverydetailedplansforeveryproductiveunit.This

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processwasorientatedtowardheavyindustry,eventhoughthecountrydidnotpossessthenecessaryrawmaterials,coalandironore.Thislatercausedsevereeconomicproblems,asHungarianheavyindustrywasandstillisnotcompetitiveontheworldmarket.Thetrendtowardgrowingtotalitarianismwasbrokentwice.AfterthedeathofStalintheSovietleadershiporderedImreNagytobeprimeministerandunderhisleadershipoftwenty-twomonthstheworstfeaturesoftotalitarianruleweresomewhatrelaxed.FromJuly1955theformerCommunistpowerelitetriedtoreinstatetotalitarianruleandthisledtotheuprisingof1956.Duringitstwelvedaysthefirststepstowardamulti-partydemocracyweretaken.ThesecondinvasionofBudapestbytheSovietarmy,however,reinstatedthetotalitariansystem,althoughwithachangedCommunistleadership.Severeoppressioncontinuedtill1963.

Thethirdperiod,fromthemid-1960stothesecondhalfofthe1970s,wasatimeoftentativeliberalization.Thestartofthisperiodmightbesetin1963,theyearofthepoliticalamnesty,whenthemajorityofpoliticalprisonerswereliberated;in1966,whentheCentralCommitteeofthePartydecidedtointroducemarket-orientedreforms;orin1968,whenthereformswereimplemented.Thesepoliticaldecisionsresultedfromarecognitionbythepowerelitethatthetotalitariansystemandthecommandeconomyfailedtoworkefficientlyandanewuprising,similarto1956,mightoccur.Therefore,thepowereliteintroducedanumberofliberalizingmeasures.Fewerpersonswereimprisonedforpoliticalopposition,falsechargeswererarelymade,politicalconformitywasdemandedonlyinpublicandcitizenswerepermittedtotraveltoWesterncountries.SomeWesternculturalgoodswereimported,andinartandliteraturethefamouscategorizationofsupported,toleratedandprohibitedworkswasmodifiedsothatstrictlyMarxistandsocialistworksweresometimesclassifiedastolerated.Theso-calledeconomic

mechanismreformstriedtoimplementasocialistmarketeconomyinwhichthestate-ownedenterpriseswouldoperateinamannersimilartoprivateenterprisesinacapitalistsystem.Animportantandsomewhatunintendedby-productofthesereformswasthedevelopmentofasmall-scaleprivateeconomy,mostlyintheformofsecondjobs,thatis,income-supplementingactivitiesafterregularworkinthefirsteconomy.

Thefourthandfinalperiodfromthesecondhalfofthe1970sto1989wasaperiodofstagnation,ultimatelyendinginthecollapseof1989.Duringthisperiodthepowereliteattemptedtostopthepoliticalliberalizationandmarket-orientedreformsthathadbeenintroduced.Theeconomyalmoststagnatedandonthesurfaceone-partyrulewas

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strengthened,whilebeneaththesurfaceoppositiontotheregimewasincreasingandbeginningtobeorganized.AnincreasingnumberoftheSocialistPartyleadersseemtohaverecognizedthatthisstagnationmightleadtoaviolentbreakdownofthesystem.Thestartingdatemightbesetattheoilcrisisof1973andthechangesthatfollowedintheworldeconomy,towhichthestate-ownedHungarianenterpriseswereunabletoadapt.Oritcouldbeseenas1974,whentherewasSovietpressuretostopthemarket-orientedreformsandtwoproponentsofthereforms.R.NyersandL.Fehér,wereremoved.Oritcouldbeseenasdatingfrom1978,whenrealwageswereindexedtoalevelneverachievedsince.Althoughthedecisivechangeshappenedbefore1975,theleadershipwasabletoaverttheirconsequencesbyforeignborrowing.Thispolicy,however,wasstoppedin1978,whentheHungarianeconomyhadseveredifficultiesinservicingitsforeigndebt.From1978thepowerelitemuddledthrough,oscillatingbetweenthereintroductionofoppressivemeasuresandreinforcingelementsofthecommandeconomyontheonehand,andgivingliberalizingpalliativestothepopulationandtoleratingthespreadofthesecondeconomyontheother.

SocialStructure

Intheimmediatepost-waryearsHungaryhadanunderdevelopedeconomyandsociety:54percentoftheemployedpopulationwereinagricultureandlessthan10percenthadnon-manualjobsandjustoverafifthwereinindustryorconstruction(Table1.1).Theenforcedsocialistindustrializationofthe1950sgreatlyincreasedthenumberemployedinindustry,butbytheendofthedecadealmosttwo-fifthsstillremainedinagriculture.Industrializationalsoresultedinthegrowthofnon-skilledworkers,whocamefromagricultureandfromthevillages.Thepoliticallyinspiredrepressionofself-employmentreducedtheproportionofartisansandmerchantsinthesociety.In

agriculturethecollectivizationprocesswasbegunbutnotyetfullyaccomplished.

Inthe1960sandthefirsthalfofthe1970sHungaryslowlyapproachedsomefeaturesofindustrialeconomies:increasingnumbersofprofessionalandskilledworkersandadiminishingnumberofagriculturalworkers.Therewere,however,trendswhichclearlydifferedfrommoderneconomies.Themoststrikingwasthealmostcompletedisappearanceoftheself-employed,especiallyinagriculture.Independentpeasantsmallholderswerevirtuallyeliminatedfromtheeconomyandthe

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Table1.1:Socialstructure,194993(%)Occupationalstatus 1949 19601970 1980 1990 1993 ChangeManagersandprofessionals 1.8 3.0 5.1 7.8 11.0 16.1 14.3Clericals 8.0 13.7 20.7 22.5 22.4 22.9 14.9Artisians,merchants 8.1 2.4 1.6 1.5 4.2 7.2 -0.9Skilledworkers 11.2 15.5 19.5 23.2 25.7 27.1 15.9Semi-andunskilledworkers 17.3 27.1 29.6 28.5 24.017.8 0.5Self-employedpeasants 46.7 19.9 1.6 0.6 1.1 3.3 -43.4Agriculturalworkers 6.9 18.4 21.9 15.8 11.6 5.6 -1.3(Total) (100) 100)(100)(100)(100)(100)Non-manual 9.5 17.2 24.5 30.5 33.4 39.0 29.5Employed,industryandconstruction 21.6 34 43.7 42.1 38.1 31.0 9.4Employedinagriculture 53.8 38.4 24.7 18.6 12.7 8.9 -44.9Self-employed 55 22.3 3.4 2.8 5.3 10.5 -44.5

numberofagriculturalworkersemployedonstatefarmsgreatlyincreased.Self-employedartisansandmerchantswerealsoalmostcompletelyeliminated.

Inthe1980s,andparticularlyinthesecondhalfofthe1980s,theHungariansocialstructurebegantomovetowardthatoftheadvancedWesternsocieties.Theshareofself-employedartisans,merchantsandpeasantsbegantoincrease,employmentinindustryandconstructionbegantodiminishandemploymentinnon-manualjobsincreasedtoathirdofthelabourforce.By1990thenumberofskilledmanualworkersoutnumberedsemi-skilledandnon-skilledworkers.

Since1990changesseemtohavegatheredmomentumwiththeradicalchangeinthestructureoftheeconomy.Theproportionofmanagersandprofessionalsincreasedbyalmosthalfinthreeyears,anddoubledinlittlemorethanadecade.Theproportionofself-employedhasdoubledinthreeyears,andthenumberofskilledworkersisrisingwhilethatofnon-skilledworkersisfalling.Thus,the

occupationalorsocialstructureofHungariansocietyisheadingtowardamoderncapitalistsociety.

Changesatthetopofthesocialhierarchycannotbegaugedfromtheseindicators,buttheyarealsoveryimportant.Insteadofasmallbutpowerfulpoliticalelitebeingatthetop,in1994theeliteseemstobe

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muchmorenumerousandratherheterogeneous.Thiseliteconsistsofapolitical,aneconomicandaculturalelitethatmoreorlesscounterbalanceeachother.AconsequenceofthepluralistelitestructureisthatnoneisnearlyaspowerfulastheeliteoftheCommunistperiod(KonrádandSzelényi,1991).

ItmightbequestionedwhethersocialstrataorclassesareappropriateindicatorsofthesocialstructuresincetheCommuniststatedefineditselfasaclasslesssociety.Thedataonthepercapitaincomelevelsindicatethattherewereimportantandconsistentdifferencesbetweenthesestrata,andtheyweresimilartotheincomedifferencesincapitalistsocieties,includingScandinaviancountries.AnalysisofsocialmobilityhasshownthattherelativemobilityopportunitiestheopennessoftheHungariansocietyintermsofmobilityweremoreorlesssimilartotheopennessofWesternsocieties(EriksonandGoldthorpe,1992).Thisopennessseemstohaveincreasedfromtheinter-warperiodtothe1960s,butdeclinedslightlyfromthe1960stothe1990s(Andorka,1990).

PopulationandFamily

ThemostremarkablefeatureofthepopulationprocessesinHungaryistheearlydeclineinfertilitytobelowthereplacementlevelbytheendofthe1950s;by1958thenetreproductionratefellbelow1.00.AsimilardeclinedidnotoccurinWesternEuropetillaround1970to1975.Sincethefirsthalfofthe1960s,theleveloffertilitycalculatedfromyearlydatashowssomeoscillations,butoverlongerperiodsthecohortfertilityratesdemonstrateremarkablestabilityat1.851.90childrenperwoman.Thisnetcohortreproductionrateofabout0.9is10percentlowerthantherateneededforsimplereplacement(Table1.2).Afterthesystemtransformation,theleveloffertilityhasnotnoticeablydeclinedalthoughtherehavebeensignificantdeclinesinfertilityduringthesameperiodinsomeotherformerCommunist

countries,forexampleEastGermany.

Themostvisibleconsequenceofthelowfertilityrateisthedeclineofthetotalpopulationsizesince1981.Thehighrateofmortalityiscertainlyacontributingfactor,butevenasignificantreductioninmortalitycouldnotpreventafallinpopulation.Asecondaryfactorinpopulationdeclinewasanetoutflowofemigrants,rangingbetween19,000and33,000intheCommunistperiod.

Marriagehasbeentraditionallyyoungandalmostuniversalin

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Table1.2:Populationandfamily,194893

YearPopulation(1,000)

Naturalgrowthrate(%)

Netcohortreproductionrate

Illegitimacyrate(%)

Divorce(per1,000marriages)

1948 9.119 9.4 __ 8.2 5.31953 9.545 9.9 1.202 __ __1958 9.850 6.1 0.973 __ __1963 10.074 3.2 0.819 __ 7.11968 10.244 3.9 0.952 __ 7.91973 10.410 3.2 0.906 5.9 9.21978 10.464 2.7 0.979 5.5 9.81983 10.671 -2.0 0.837 8.3 10.71988 10.464 -1.5 0.852 11.5 9.11993 10.310 -3.2 0.804 17.6 9.2Change 1.191 -12.6 -0.398 9.4 3.9

Hungary,withwomenmarryingaround21-3yearsofage.TheageofmarriagedeclinedslightlyduringtheCommunistperiod;itwas22.8yearsin1948,21.5yearsin1988andthen21.7yearsin1993.Thepercentofnever-marryingwomenincreasedduringandjustaftertheSecondWorldWarbutfromthispointongenerallydeclineduntilthesystemchange.Fromthesecondhalfofthe1980sthemarriageratebegantodeclineandtheageofmarriagehasbeguntorisetowardtheWestEuropeanaverage.ThedivorceraterosesignificantlyinthefirstdecadesaftertheSecondWorldWarbuthasfallenslightlysincetheearly1980s,astherateofmarriagehasalsofallen,suggestinganincreaseincohabitationwithoutmarriageordivorce.

Traditionally,mostadultHungarianshavelivedinfamiliesandwhilemosthouseholdsconsistedofanuclearfamily,asignificantminoritycontainedpersonsnotbelongingtothefamilynucleus(forexample,awidowedparentaswell)andinsomecasestwonuclearfamilieslivedtemporarilyinthesamehousehold(mostlymarriedparentsandoneof

theirmarriedchildren)beforeeachcouldobtainadwellingoftheirown.However,bythe1970stheproportionofmulti-generationalfamilieshadbecomesmall.Whilethenuclearfamilyhouseholdremainsthenorm,thesizeoffamilieshasshownasubstantialdecline;in1949theaveragefamilyhad3.39members;by1984ithadfallento2.92members,whereitappearstohavestabilized.Thelowfertilityratemeansfamilieswithfourormorechildrenhavefallenfromnearlyatenthin1949tojustabove1percenttoday.Theproportionofhouseholdswithonlyasingle

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memberhasrisenfromoneinsevenin1960toalmostoneinfourtoday(AppendixTable1.1).

Theproportionoffamilieswithchildrenandasingleparentwashighimmediatelyafterthewarbecauseofdeathsofmeninmilitaryservice,butthenfellto10percentin1970.Sincethenithasrisento15percent,duetoatreblingintherateofillegitimatebirthssince1978andtherateofremarriageofdivorcedwomenfallingbymorethanhalfinthesameperiod.

Education

Thestockofeducationinasocietyrepresentsthecumulativeeffectsofinstitutionalchangesintroducedovermorethanhalfacentury:today,elderlyHungarianshavebeeneducatedinthesystemasitprevailedbeforetheCommunisttakeover,andatthetimeoftheCommunisttakeover,olderHungarianshadbeeneducatedintheHabsburgsystem.In1920,barelyoneintenHungarianadultshadhadasmanyaseightyearsofelementaryeducation,andlessthanoneintwentyhadhadeitherasecondaryortertiarydiploma.Educationallevelsrosealittleinthe1920sand1930s,butthedisruptionoftheSecondWorldWarresultedintheoveralllevelofeducationintheadultpopulationremainingmuchthesamein1949.TheHungarianpopulationasawholehasonlybecomeeducated(asdistinctfromhavingbasicliteracy)inthepost-warera(Figure1.1).

Figure1.1Stockofeducation,192090

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Modernizationofeducationinthepopulationasawholeisachievedbyincreasingthepercentageofchildrenandyoungpeoplewhoentersuccessivehigherlevelsofeducation,thusproducingaflowofmoreeducatedyoungpeopleintotheadultlabourforce.JustbeforetheFirstWorldWaronlyoneinsixofyoungHungarianshadeightyearsofelementaryeducation,andbythestartoftheSecondWorldWar,theproportionwasaboutoneinfour.Inthepost-warera,eightyearsofelementaryeducationhaseffectivelybeendeliveredtoalmostallchildren,andtheproportioninkindergartensrosefrom23percentin1950to96percentin1989,fallingslightlyto87percentin1993.

EnrolmentinsecondaryschoolswasveryselectivebeforetheCommunistperiod,andcoverageofsecondaryeducationwasincompleteintheCommunistera.In1960,75percentofyoungpeoplewentontosecondaryschoolafterfinishingprimaryschool,andone-quarterdidnot.By1980theproportiongoingtosecondaryschoolreached93percent,andhasremainedatthatlevelsince.Abouthalfinsecondaryeducationattendthree-yearvocationallyorientedschoolsforskilledworkers.Whiletheseschoolsgivetrainingfortheworldofwork,theydonotguaranteeajobandrestrictthepossibilityforfurtherstudy.About35to40percentofyoungpersonsstudyinfour-yearsecondaryschools,eithergymnasiaorspecialsecondaryschools.Successfullycompletionthereisanecessaryqualificationtocontinuestudyingatuniversityorafurthereducationcollege(Table1.3).

Table1.3:195593Thosecompletingeducation,(%)ofpopulationofrelevantage

secondaryYear primary

schoolskilledworker

gymnasium specialteritary

1955 66.5 __ __ __ __1960 79.8 23.0 11.2 5.9 3.2

1965 90.4 29.2 19.7 9.5 5.81970 90.4 38.5 14.4 11.5 7.41975 90.8 36.6 13.1 12.8 8.01980 92.2 37.7 15.1 17.5 9.61985 __ __ __ __ __1989 95.6 34.8 16.6 17.3 11.91990 91.0 34.0 36.5 11.21991 91.2 33.0 36.2 11.41992 93.5 37.4 47.0 11.31993 94.5 34.8 44.1 11.3

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Table1.4:Increasedgenderequalityineducation,192090Male/femaleinequality

Year atsecondarydiplomalevel attertiarydiplomalevel1920 4.27 13.001930 3.68 12.501941 4.64 7.671949 2.15 6.001960 1.80 3.601970 1.31 2.361980 1.08 1.881984 1.00 1.491990 0.96 1.36Change -3.31 -11.64

IntheCommunistera,thePlanningBureauimposedstrictquotasonthenumberenteringtertiaryinstitutions.Yettertiaryenrolmentsincreasedinthepost-waryearsunderthesloganofdemocratizationofhighereducation.By1960,30percentwithasecondaryschoolqualificationwereenteringhighereducation,andtheproportionroseto39percentby1980.However,sincemanygraduateswereunabletofindwork,stricterquotaswereimplementedinordertodecreaseenrolmentintertiaryeducation;itfellto36percentby1985.SinceonlyaminorityofyoungHungarianshaveattendedacademicsecondaryschoolsandonlyaminorityoftheseentertertiaryeducation,theresultisthattheproportionofgraduatestendstobelowerinHungarythaninmostWesternsocieties.

Increasededucationhasalsobroughtaboutagreatreductioningenderinequalities.In1920youngmalesweremorethanfourtimesaslikelyasyoungwomentoachieveasecondaryschooldiploma,andthirteentimesmorelikelytogainatertiaryqualification.Theinequalityintertiaryeducationfellsubstantiallyinthenexttwodecades,butnotatthesecondarylevel.AtthestartoftheCommunisteramen

outnumberedwomenwithsecondarydiplomasbymorethantwotoone,andbymorethansixtooneatthetertiarylevel.By1990womenwereslightlymorelikelytohaveasecondarydiploma,andtheratioofmentowomenamongcollegegraduateswasoftheorderoffourtothree(Table1.4)ofyoungmales.Therehasbeenagenderrevolutionineducation.

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Employment

Thepotentiallabourforcehasgrowngreatlyinthepost-warera,asthenumberofchildreninthepopulationhasdeclined,fewadultsdiebeforeretirementage,educationhasmademorepeopleemployableandwomenhaveincreasedtheirparticipationinthelabourforce.Inthepost-warera,themostdramaticchangehasbeeninthegenderratioofparticipantsinthelabourforce.In1949,menoutnumberedwomeninthelabourforcebymorethantwoandonetoone;by1990thegenderratiowas1.15mentoeachemployedwoman(Table1.5).

Asecondmajorstructuralchangehasbeenthedecreaseinthenumberofolderpeopleinthelabourforceaspensionshavemaderetirementeconomicallyfeasible.In1949morethantwoinfiveofthepopulationover60wereemployed;fourdecadeslaterbarelytwoinonehundredwereworking,astheageofdrawingapensionwaslowered,especiallyforwomen.

ZerounemploymentwasanimportantlegitimatingclaimoftheCommunistsystem.Duringthewholeperiodnoopenunemploymentexisted,albeitcontrolledwagesandmismanagementofworkersgeneratedunderemploymentanddissatisfaction,asinthesaying:Theypretendtopayusandwepretendtowork.Theconsequenceofthesocalledsoftbudgetaryconstraint(Kornai,1980)wasthatenterprisesandgovernmentinstitutionsemployedmorepersonsthannecessary.Althoughsecondaryeducationprovidedamoreskilledlabourforce,italsodelayedentryintoemployment,asfeweryouthsstartedworkat15.Throughouttheperiodtherewasacontinuousshortageoflabourandallpotentiallabourreserveswereabsorbedbytheeconomy;thisalsoencouragedmobilizingwomeninpaidemployment.

Afterthesystemchange,unemploymentsuddenlyappeared,reaching

13.2percentin1993,butdecliningto10.9percentattheendof1994.Thedeclineinthenumberofemployedpersonswas,however,muchhigherthanthenumberofunemployed.From1990to1994thenumberofemployedpersonsdeclinedby1.4million,25percent,whilethenumberoftheunemployedaccountedforlessthanhalfofthisdecline.Theremainingpartofthedeclineinemploymentcanbeaccountedforbythegrowthinthenumberofpensioners,partlythroughearlyretirement,andbysomegrowthinthenumberofdependenthousewives.

Table1.5:Employmentbygender,194990Malepopulationaged1559 Femalepopulationaged1554

YearActiveearner

Unemployed Ineducation

Otherdependent

Activeearner

Unemployed Ineducation

Otherdependent

194989.7 1.6 4.9 3.8 34.5 1.3 2.9 61.3196091.4 1.1 6.1 1.4 53.3 0.7 4.4 41.6197085.6 2.6 1.06 1.2 64.3 5.6 8.7 21.4198085.9 5.1 7.9 1.1 73.2 12.2 7.8 6.8198486.2 5.8 7.1 0.9 73.8 10.9 8.3 7.0199080.4 7.4 8.4 1.1 69.6 13.6 8.5 6.8

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IncomeofthePopulation

SincetheSecondWorldWarnationalincomehasincreasedsignificantly,butitwasslowerthaninmostWesternEuropeancapitalistcountries.Until1989nationalincomewascalculatedaccordingtothesocialistconceptofNetMaterialProduct,excludingservices,butGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)hasalsobeencalculatedsincethe1960saccordingtotheSystemofNationalAccountsproposedbytheUnitedNations,thuspermittingapproximatecomparisonofthemacro-economybeforeandaftertheintroductionofthemarketeconomy.

ThediverseelementsconstitutingthenationalincomegrewatverydifferentratesintheCommunistera.PercapitanationalincomegrewatafasterratethanpercapitaGDP,reflectingtheCommuniststressonmanufacturingmaterialgoods.TheCommunistmacro-economyalsogrewatafasterratethanpercapitarealincome,andverymuchfasterthanrealwages.Infact,officialstatisticsshowedrealwages,afterrapidincreaseinthe1950sand1960s,actuallydecliningfrom1980to1989.Socialbenefitssupplementedrealwages,andtheygrewextremelysharplyinthepost-warera;however,thedramaticpercentageincreaseisduetotheirinitiallowbase.Yetfrom1980to1989socialbenefitsgrewby38percentwhilerealwagesfellby5percent.Sincethetotalcostofsocialbenefitswassmallerthanthatofwages,theformerdidnot,ipsofacto,compensateforthedeclineinwages.

AverageincomeindicatorsprovidesignalsoftheeconomiccrisisofHungarianCommunism.Thegrowthrateinthenationalincome,GDPandtherealincomeofthepopulationwasclearlyhigherinthedecadefrom1965to1975thaninthetenyearsbeforeandafterthisdecade.Fromthepointofviewofeconomicdevelopmentthesubperiodoftentativeliberalizationandmarket-orientedreformsfromthemid-

1960stothesecondhalfofthe1970swerethemostsuccessfulyears.

Afterthesystemchangein1989,theofficiallycalculatedGDPdeclinedbyaboutone-fifthupto1993,andthenstartedtoriseagain.However,theofficialfiguresinTable1.6areonlyapproximatebecauseproductionfromthegreyorinformaleconomyisnotknownandonlypartiallytakenintoconsiderationincalculatingGDP.Accordingtoarecentestimation22to25percentoftheGDPwasproducedbytheinformaleconomyin1992(ÁrvayandVértes,1993).OverthisperiodthedeclineinrealincomesofthepopulationwaslessthanthedeclineintheGDP,asinvestmentdeclinedmuchmorethantheincomeofthepopula-

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Table1.6:Income,195094

Year

Percapitanationalincome(1950=100)

PercapitaGDP(1960=100)

Percapitarealincome(1950=100)

Realwage(1950=100)

Realvaluepercapitasocialbenefits(1950=100)

1950 100 __ 100 100 1001955 126 __ 115 105 __1960 165 100 154 154 2861965 198 122 181 168 4151970 270 162 245 199 6881975 360 213 307 234 1,1861980 405 249 334 238 1,5781985 433 275 360 226 1,7921989 450 297 378 222 2,1771990 __ 279 377 214 2,1661991 __ 247 370 197 2,1881992 __ 234 357 195 __1993 __ 229 339 187 __1994 __ 235 351 __ __

tion.Realwagesalsodeclinedby16percentbetween1989and1993.However,bothrealincomesandrealwageshaveincreasedsince.

ThehouseholdincomesurveysoftheCentralStatisticalOfficefrom1962to1987andtheHungarianHouseholdPanelSurveysof1992-4providedataonincomeinequalities(AppendixTableA.2).Measuredbytheshareofthehighestandlowestincomedecileinthetotalincomeofhouseholds,incomeinequalitiesexistedintheCommunistperiodatlevelsmoreorlesssimilartotheincomeinequalitiesobservedinScandinaviancountries.In1962,thetopdecileinthepopulationhad20percentoftheincomeandthebottomdecilelessthan4percent.Itisalsonoteworthythat,whilefrom1962to1982theinequalitiestendedtodeclineslightly,from1982to1987they

increasedagain,withthetoptenthofearnersgaining21percentoftotalincome.

Duringthisperiodthereweretwoimportantgradualshiftsininequalities.Thefirstwasthedeclineintherelativeadvantageofmanagersandprofessionals,althoughimportantfringebenefitsarenottakenintoconsiderationinregisteredincome.Secondwastherelativeimprovementoftheincomepositionofpeasantsintheperiod196777,followedbyafallinthe1980s.

Thetransformationoftheeconomymeansthatincomefiguresafter

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1990arenotstrictlycomparablewiththeearlierperiod.Insofarasthisdoesnotdistortoverallpatterns,thenwecansaythatincomeinequalitieshaveincreased;thetopdecilenowearns24percentofincomeandthebottomdecile3.4percent:resultssimilartoincomeinequalitiesinWestGermany.Disregardingproblemsintroducedbymeasurement,thedataalsosuggestthattheincomedifferencesbetweendifferentsocialoroccupationalgroupshaveincreased.Onaveragemanagers,professionalsandtheself-employedhavebeenthewinnerssincethesystemchange,whilesemi-andunskilledworkersandpeasantshaveseentheirrelativeincomefall.

Consumption

Consumptiondatamightbemorereliablethanincomeasameasureofthematerialwell-beingofthepopulation,giventheseriousomissionsinofficialeconomicstatisticsduetoaflourishinginformaleconomy.Moreover,theobjectsofconsumptionhaveshifteddramaticallyinrelativeemphasisinthepost-warperiod.

Foodisastaple,andasignificantamountcanbegrownbyhouseholdsforthemselvesoracquiredoutsideofficialmarketsespeciallyinarichagriculturalcountrysuchasHungary.Intheperiodsince1950totalfood

Figure1.2Riseinconsumption,195092

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consumptiondoubledbythemid-1980s,andhasfallenslightlysincethetransformation.Theconsumptionindicatormakesallowancesforhowfoodisproduced,itspriceandquality.Calorieintake,adirectmeasureoffoodconsumption,showsverylimitedchange:itroseby20percentbetween1950and1975,andhasremainedvirtuallyconstantataround3,300caloriesadaysince(Figure1.2).

Modernizationismostdramaticallyevidentinthegreatriseofconsumerdurables.Inasense,thisisanartefactofthetraditionalHungarianhousehold,especiallyinruralareas,havingveryfewmassproducedgoods.Theimpactofwaractuallyresultedinafallinthelevelofconsumergoodsbetween1938and1950.Duringthepost-warera,Hungarianhouseholdshaveenteredintotheeraofmassconsumption,withtelevisionsets,refrigerators,telephonesandotherconsumergoods.ThelevelofmassaffluencehasnotreachedWestEuropeanstandards,asindicatedbythefactthatlessthanhalfHungarianhouseholdshaveanautomobile.Nonetheless,theriseinmateriallivingstandardshasbeenveryreal.Furthermore,theownershipofconsumerdurableshascontinuedsincetheopeningoftheborderstogoodsfromtheWest;thedurableindexroseby26percentbetween1988and1992.

Thecontinuedriseinconsumerdurables,combinedwitha5percentfallintheoverallconsumerindexandinthenotionalpercapitaGDP,illustratesatendencytounreliabilityineconomicstatisticssincetheypointtowardoppositeconclusions.ThedivergenceisdueinpartatleasttothefailureofofficialstatisticstocapturealltheresourcesofinformaleconomiesonwhichHungarianshavereliedtoasignificantextentforfoodandforcashincomeusedtopurchaseconsumerdurables.

Housing

Intheinter-warerathehousingstockofHungarywasgenerallyoflowquality.In1930onlyonehouseineighthaditsownpipedwatersupplyandoneinfourhadelectricity,andtherewasovercrowding,withanaverageof2.6personsperroom.HousingconditionsfurtherdeterioratedduetothedevastationoftheSecondWorldWar.Asof1949,thelevelofovercrowdingwasthesameastwodecadesearlier,lessthanhalfofhouseshadelectricityandonlyoneinsixhadpipedwaterandoneineighthadaflushtoilet.Housingconditionsimprovedonlyslowlyinthefirstfifteenyearsafterthewar,becausecentrallyplannedinvestmentswereconcentratedonmanufacturingandparticularlyinheavyindustry.

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Figure1.3Improvementinthequalityofhousing,194993(%)

Inadditionthegreatmajorityofthepopulationwassopoorthatitcouldnotaffordtobuilditsownhouse.

Moreorlessinparallelwiththeintroductionofmarket-orientedreformsinthe1960s,thegovernmentendorsedafifteen-yearhousingconstructionprogramme.However,themajorityofhousingwasbuiltbyprivateresources,notbythestate,withfamilies,friendsandneighboursdoingmuchoftheworkthemselvesandhiringpeopleworkingintheinformaleconomy.Theresultwasamajorgrowthinthenumberofhousesandintheirquality.Attheendofthe1970s,restrictivemonetaryandfiscalpoliciesledtostateinvestmentinhousingconstructionbeingveryheavilyreduced.Asthegrowthofpersonalincomesalsoslowedinthe1980s,privatehousingconstructionalsobegantodecline.Since1989statehousingconstructionhasalmostcompletelystoppedandprivatebuildingalsodeclinedsharply.

Becausehouseshavealifeofhalfacenturyormore,thecumulativeeffectofdecadesofnewconstructionhasbeenabigincreaseinthe

qualityofhousing.Today,fromthree-quarterstovirtuallyallHungarianhouseshaveaflushtoilet,pipedwaterandelectricity(Figure1.3).Thenumberofdwellingswiththreeormoreroomshasrisenfrom5percentin1949,11percentin1970to40percenttoday.Thecontractioninpopulationsizeandinthesizeofhouseholdsandfamilieshascausedthe

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numberofpersonsperroom,259in1949,tobehalvedbytheearly1980s,andfallfurtherto121in1988and110in1993.

Health

HealthhasimprovedthroughoutEuropeinthetwentiethcentury,andHungaryisnoexception.Onecommonlycitedcauseisadvancementsinmedicalscience,asecondtheriseinthematerialstandardoflivingandathirdtheincreaseinhealthcareprovidedthroughthewelfarestate.TrendsinHungaryemphasizetheimportanceofthefirsttwoinfluences,andraisequestionsabouttheextenttowhichmoreinputsofdoctorsandhospitalbedsaresufficienttoimprovehealthstandards.

Themostconsistentimprovementisininfantmortality.BeforetheFirstWorldWaraboutoneinfivebabiesdiedininfancy.Whiletheratewashalvedby1949,infantmortalitywasstillninety-onedeathsperthousandbirths.Inthepost-waryearsinfantmortalityhasbeengreatlyreduced.In1989itwas15.7deathsperthousand,andithascontinuedtofallsincethebigchanges,standingat12.5deathsperthousandin1993(Figure1.4)

LifeexpectancyhasrisensubstantiallyinHungarysince1900,butithasnotdonesoconsistently,orequallyformenandwomen(Figure1.5).

Figure1.4Steadyimprovementininfantmortality,190093

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Figure1.5Trendsinlifeexpectancy;doctorssince1900

In1900,lifeexpectancyformenwas36.6years,andforwomen,38.1years.Itroseslowlyinthefirsttwodecadesofthecentury,andmoresharplybetweenthewars.By1949,lifeexpectancyhadincreasedbythree-fifthsormore;itwas59.3yearsformen,and63.4yearsforwomen,aslightwideningofthegendergap.

LifeexpectancyroseslowlyformeninthefirsttwodecadesoftheCommunistregime,reaching67.5yearsformenin1966.Asfemalelifeexpectancyhadrisento72.2years,thegendergapremained.Thereafter,lifeexpectancyformenbeganfalling.By1989,lifeexpectancyformenhaddroppedto65.4years,andby1993itstoodat64.5years.ThelifeexpectancyofwomenroseveryslowlythroughoutthefinaltwodecadesoftheCommunistregime,reaching74.0yearsin1988.Sincethemaleratewasfalling,thegendergapincreasedtoeightyears.Sincethen,femalelifeexpectancyhasbeenvirtuallyconstant,andthegendergaphaswidenedtomorethannineyears.

Thedeclineinlifeexpectancyisverystriking,giventhatthebigdropininfantmortalitygivesasubstantialboosttothesefigures.Itisduetomenintheagebracket40to60tendingtodieprematurelyfromavarietyofpathologicalcauses,suchasroadaccidents,whichrosesubstantiallyascarownershiproseunderCommunism,andthen

abruptlyincreasedbetween1989and1991asHungarianmotoristsshowedlessandlessrespectfortrafficrulesinthemidstofregimechange,beforecalmingdownandreturningtothenormalaccidentrateby1993.Accidental

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deathsfromothercauseshaveshownasteadyriseinthepost-warera,andthishascontinuedsinceregimechange.

TheexpansionofhealthcareservicesintheCommunisterawasgreat(Figure1.5):thenumberofdoctorsper10,0000peoplemorethantrebledbetween1949and1989,andthenumberofhospitalbedsalmostdoubled.However,thecorrelationwithlifeexpectancyappearsperverse,forthelatterfellwhiletheformercontinuedtorise.Between1966,thehighpointformalelifeexpectancy,and1989,thenumberofdoctorsper10,000peopleincreasedby81percentandhospitalbedsincreased27percent;inthesameperiod,malelifeexpectancyfell3percent.Invaliditypensions,introducedin1971,havealsorisengreatlyfrom207,000intheinitialyear.By1980,invaliditypensionswerepaidto408,000peopleandby1989,502,000,andtheyroseto664,000by1993.Thesefigures,whicharecommonlyfoundinWesternEuropetoo,areasmuchareflectionoftheconsequencesofrisingunemploymentleadingsomepeopletobeclassifiedastooilltoworkratherthanasunabletofindajobinatightlabourmarket.

TheHungarianpatternofhealthrising,thenfalling,duringtheCommunistera,iscommonthroughoutCentralandEasternEuropeandtheformerSovietUniontoo.Itcanbeattributednottothelackofhealthcarebuttoitsinefficienciesandlowstandards,andalsotothesocialstressesgeneratedbythepoliticalsystemandacommandeconomy;jobswereguaranteed,buttheywereunhealthyjobs.P.Józan(1988,1989,1994)describesthecomplexofinfluencesonhealthintheCommunisteraasasocialmaladaptationsyndrome.

TimeBudgets

NationaltimebudgetsurveyswereperformedinHungarybytheCentralStatisticalOfficein1963,1976-7,1986-7andin1993onafullycomparablebasis(AndorkaandFalussy,1982;Falussyand

Zoltánka,1994).Thesedataallowustoanalysethechangesinthemaincharacteristicsofeverydaylifeintermsofcontinuitiesandchange.TheamountoftimethatHungarianshavespentinmeetingtheirbasicphysiologicalneeds,suchassleeping,eatingandwashing,hasremainedvirtuallyconstantregardlessofthepoliticalregime:almosthalfofeachday.

Inthe1970sadultHungariansdevotedverymanyhourstocontractedandcommittedactivities(thatis,workingactivitiesandlearning).Longworkinghourswereexplainedbythehighrateofemploymentofboth

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menandwomen,andbythewidespreadsupplementaryuseoftimespentproducingfood,averaginganhouradayformenandthree-quartersofanhourforwomen.Whilewomenspentlesstimeinpaidemploymentthanmen,becausetheyspentmuchmoretimeonhouseholdchores,theirtotalcommittedtimewasgreater(Table1.7).

Fromthemid-1970stothemid-1980sthelengthofcontractedandcommittedtimedeclinedonlyslightlyaspartofthereductionintheworkinghoursinthemainjobwascompensatedbythegrowthoftimespentinthesecondeconomyand,formen,increasedtimespentingrowingfoodfortheirownconsumptionorsaleininformalmarkets.Fromthemid-1980sto1993thehoursspentinthemainjobstronglydeclinedbecauseofthereductioninemployment.Thisdeclinewas,however,notcompensatedbyagrowthofactivitiesinthesecondeconomy.Inpartthiswasduetosomesecondeconomyactivitieschangingintomainjobs(forexample,peasantswhoearliercultivated

Table1.7:Timebudgets,197793(averageminutesperday)Men Women

Typeofactivity 197719861993197719861993Mainjob 284 255 209 176 161 139Supplementarynon-agriculturalwork

3 16 5 1 9 2

Supplementaryagriculturalwork 60 75 73 47 41 34Learning 10 7 7 6 6 5Householdchores 83 73 82 242 221 225Shopping 13 16 19 24 26 28Careforchildren 13 14 17 28 41 49Transport 69 67 62 51 51 49Totalcontractedandcommitedtime 536 522 474 574 555 532Socializing 61 62 63 44 47 46Cultureininstitutions 5 5 3 3 2 2Newspapersandjournals 22 29 19 9 17 13Readingbooks 16 11 9 9 11 14Television,video 95 117 161 83 107 135

Activesports,outdoorexercise 13 11 15 9 6 7Otherleisure 14 14 14 27 29 16Totalleisure 227 250 286 186 219 235Physiologicalneeds 677 668 681 680 666 673

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theirhouseholdplotsaftertheirworkinghoursbecameself-employedpeasants),andpartlybecauseeconomicchangesledtoafallintheeffectivedemandforsecondeconomywork,thatis,theabilityofpeopletopaycash-in-hand.

Thetotalamountoftimespentinleisureactivitiesincreasedfrom14to18percentofatwenty-four-hourdayinthedecadesunderreview,anditincreasedevenmorebycomparisonwiththetimespentincontractedandcommittedactivities.Mengainedanextrafifty-nineminutesadayforleisure,andwomenanextraforty-nineminutes.Virtuallyallthisincreaseinleisuretimewasdevotedtowatchingtelevisionand,inthecaseofmen,thisresultedinsomeotheractivities,suchasreadingbooksornewspapers,actuallycontracting.

IntheCommunisteraandafterwards,menandwomenshowsignificantlydifferentprofilesoftimeuse.Becauseofdomesticactivities,womenhavealwayshadmorecontractedandcommittedtimeandithasconsistentlybeeninnon-wagedwork.Thereislittledifferencebetweenmenandwomenintimespentinmeetingphysiologicalneeds.Asforleisure,menhavealwayshadmoreleisuretimethanwomen,andthegendergaphaswidenedovertheyears(Table1.7).

Culture

Tasteinculturalactivitieshaschangeddramaticallyinthepost-warera.In1950,peoplehadlittletimeforleisure,andlittlemoneytospendinculturalpursuits.Thechiefactivity,oftenviewedasatreat,wasgoingtothecinema.Cinemaattendance,whichrequiredmoneyformakingfilms,payingadmissionandtimetowatch,peakedin1960.Itthenfelldramaticallywiththeadventoftelevision.By1989,cinemaattendancewasbelowthelevelof1950.AsimilarriseandfallincinemaattendancehasbeenrecordedinWesternEurope.

Attendanceatthetheatrehasalteredmuchless.Itpeakedin1955,andhassincedeclinedbyaboutone-quarter.Attendanceatmuseumsincreasedmoreslowly,reachingapeakin1987,andthenfallingsharplyby1989andmorethanhalvingby1993(Table1.8).

BookproductionincreasedsubstantiallyintheCommunistera,duetostatesubsidiestopublishinghousesmakingbookscheap,andanincreaseineducationpromotingreadership.Thenumberofdifferentbooktitlesreachedapeakin1984,andthenfellsharplypriortothebigchangeof1989.Ithassubsequentlyrisenaspublishinghouseshavehadgreater

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Table1.8:Culturalactivities,195093Bookspub.(per100,000pop) Copies(percapita)

Attendance(per100population)

Year titlesthousandvolumes magazines

dailynewspaperstheatrecinemamuseum

195020 216 20 31 32 504 14195528 233 20 40 69 1,179 22196030 348 23 47 64 1,401 37196539 442 27 59 59 1,045 55197046 454 36 71 54 772 69197573 702 41 79 59 706 113198077 884 47 82 53 567 151198575 825 46 86 57 659 182198972 1,024 44 73 49 440 154199072 1,091 47 76 48 349 135199170 884 49 75 49 210 115199274 786 __ __ 46 148 98199382 700 __ __ 43 __ 90

freedomtoselecttitlestopublish.Thetotalnumberofvolumesprintedhasshownadifferenttrajectory;itwasatapeakin1990,andhasfallensharplysince,ascostsofproductionandpriceshaverisenandincomehasdeclined.Similarly,thenumberofdailynewspapersincirculationhasdeclinedfromninety-onepercapitain1988toseventy-fivepercapitain1993.Thenumberofcopiesofweekly,monthlyandquarterlyjournalshasremainedrelativelyconstantsincetheearly1980s.Today,themainculturalactivityofmostHungariansisthefreeactivityofviewingtelevision.

Deviance

ThewritingsofEmileDurkheimestablishedthesuiciderateasamajorindicatorofsocialpathology.Historically,HungarianshavehadahighrateofreportedsuicidebyEuropeanstandards,buttheratehas

fluctuateddownaswellasup.Attheturnofthecentury,itwasabouteighteensuicidesper100,000population,andthenrosebymorethanhalfintheinter-waryears,peakingintheearly1930s'depression.SuicideratesfellduringtheSecondWorldWar,andcontinuedtofallthereafter,reachingalowof20.5in1955.Asteadyandsharprisemorethandoubledtherate

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Table1.9:Deviance,192093Death:liver Percapita

Suiciderate cirrhosis consumptionof

Personssentenced

Year (per100,000pop.)

(per100,000pop.)

alcohol(litre) (per10.000pop.)

1920-4

27.0 __ __ 52

1925-9

29.7 __ __ 47

1930-4

32.9 __ __ 41

1935-9

29.2 7.4 5.5 49

1940-2

24.2 __ __ 62

1950 22.2 5.0 4.9 1101955 20.5 5.5 4.5 991960 26.6 8.9 6.1 561965 29.8 9.8 6.8 681970 34.6 12.9 9.1 491975 38.1 18.2 10.1 611980 44.9 27.7 11.7 561985 44.4 43.1 11.5 561989 41.6 51.8 11.3 621990 39.9 52.6 11.1 461991 38.6 56.9 10.7 591992 38.7 70.5 10.5 701993 35.9 81.7 __ 68

by1980,whenithititspost-warpeak.Since1989,thesuicideratehasfallenby14percent,andby1993wasatitslowestintwodecades(Table1.9).

Statisticsonalcoholconsumptionreflectbothactualdrinkingandthe

capacityofofficialstatisticstoreflecttheamountofalcoholproducedandconsumed.ThepatterninTable1.9showsthatalcoholconsumption

Table1.10:Householdsize,194990Average One-

memberAverage One-

parentFamilieswith

household households family families 4+childrenYear (No.) (%) (No.) (%) (%)

1949 __ __ 3.39 12.9 9.51960 3.10 14.5 3.12 13.4 5.11970 2.95 17.5 3.01 10.2 2.91980 2.79 19.6 2.94 11.3 1.61984 2.70 19.8 2.92 12.6 1.31990 2.66 24.3 2.93 15.5 1.4Change -0.44 9.8 -0.46 2.6 -8.1

Table1.11:Incomedistribution,196294(%)%shareof Percapitaincomeofsocialstratain%ofnationalaveragea

Year

Lowestdecileofpop.

Highestdecileofpop. ManagerProfessionalSupervisorbClerical

Self-employed

Skilledworker

Semi-skilledworker

19623.9 20.2 154 128 119 109 9519674.1 18.0 140 122 111 103 9219724.0 19.9 150 115 108 100 8919774.5 18.6 142 108 97 99 9319824.9 18.6 127 107 99 99 9219874.5 20.9 125 117 93 __ 8819923.5 23.1 __ __ __ 102 __19933.7 23.6 162 140 114 120 122 100 9019943.4 23.8 184 156 138 118 121 96 88a196287bysocialpositionoftheheadofhousehold,199394bysocialpositionofthepersonb196287semi-professional;199394supervisor,foreman

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morethandoubledinthefirstthreedecadesoftheCommunistregime,reachingapeakin1980,andthenlevelledoffinthatdecade.Thesefiguresareconsistentwiththedeathratefromcirrhosisoftheliver,amajordiseasecausedbyexcessdrinking.Ithasrisensteadilyandverysubstantiallythroughtheyears.Sincecirrhosisoftheliverisadegenerativediseaseresultingfrommanyyearsofexcessdrinking,theratessince1989reflectpatternsofbehaviourfromtheCommunistera.Bycontrast,since1989consumptionofalcoholappearstohavedroppedbyatenthfromitspost-warpeak.

Statisticaldataoncrimereflectthefunctioningofthepolice,thecriminalcourtsandtheseverityofcriminallaw.Betweenthewarsthenumberofpersonssentencedwasrelativelylow,andactuallyfellduringtheearly1930s'depression.ItmorethandoubledatthestartoftheCommunistera,astheregimeinventednewcrimesandwasharshonanyonedeemedtobeoutofline.ThepeakofsentencingwasreachedduringthemostseveretimeofStalinistoppression:in1952,152personsper10,000weresentencedtoprison.Sincethe1960stherateseemstohavebeenmoreorlessstable.In1993,thenumbersentencedforanti-socialcrimeswasatenthhigherthanin1989,butlessthanhalftheproportionsentencedonpolitical,economicandsocialgroundsduringtheheightoftheStalinistrepression.

Noreliablestatisticaltime-seriesareavailableontheprevalenceofmentalproblemsinthepopulation.Thenumberofpersonscaredforinpsychiatricinstitutionsandthenumberofpatientsdischargedfrommentalhospitalsindicatemorethelevelofpsychiatriccarethanthefrequencyofmentalillness.Bothshowacontinuousincrease.Datafromsociologicalsurveysofmentalhealthinthe1980s(KoppandSkrabski,1992),however,showthatmentalproblemsarewidespread.Theauthorsconcludedthat25percentoftheadultpopulationexhibiteddepressivesymptomsofwhich17percentweremild,5percentweremoresevereand3percenthadserioussymptoms.

Conclusion

DuringtheCommunistperiodtheHungarianeconomyandsocietywasmodernizedinsofarassocialstructurebecamemoresimilartoindustrialsocieties,thelevelofeducationincreasedandthelevelofincomeimproved.Intermsofimprovementinincomeandthestandardofliving,thesubperiodoftentativeliberalizationfromthemid-1960stothesecond

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halfofthe1970swasthemostsuccessful,asthestandardoflivingofthemajorityoftheHungariansocietybeganapproachingWestEuropeanstandards.

However,thetotalitariancharacterofthepoliticalsystemandcommandeconomywentcountertotrendsinmodernsocietiesinWesternEurope.Theslowdown,orevenreversalofmodernizationcouldbeobservedinthe1960swhenmortalitybegantodeteriorateandtheriseineducationalmoststopped.Beginninginthelate1970s,stagnationproducedsignsofcrisis,andthefailureofmodernizationbecamemoreandmorevisible.Someunderlyingtrendsthedeteriorationofhealthandthegrowthofcertainformsofdeviancedemonstratethatthebasicprocessofmodernizationisnotcomplete.TherootsofthefailureofmodernizationareinthetotalitarianandlaterallyauthoritariancharacteroftheCommunistpoliticalsystemwhichimpededthedevelopmentofrationalityandmodernvalues.

References

Andorka,R.,1990.ChangesinSocialMobilityinHungary,19301983.InM.Haller,ed.,ClassStructureinEurope.Armonk:Sharpe,198232.

Andorka,R.,1994.SocialChangesandSocialProblemsinHungarySincethe1930s:Economic,SocialandPoliticalCausesoftheDemiseofStateSocialism.ComparativeSocialResearch,14,4996.

Andorka,R.andFalussy,B.,1982.TheWayofLifeoftheHungarianSocietyontheBasisoftheTimeBudgetSurveyof19761977.SocialIndicatorsResearch,11,1,3174.

Andorka,R.andHarcsa,I.,1990.ModernizationinHungaryintheLongandShortRunMeasuredbySocialIndicators.SocialIndicators

Research,23,12,1199.

Andorka,R.,Kolosi,T.andVukovich,G.,eds,1992.SocialReport.Budapest:TÁRKI.

Árvay,J.andVértes,A.,1993.ArejtettgazdaságMagyarországon[TheHiddenEconomyinHungary].ResearchReport.Budapest:CentralStatisticalOffice.

Bekker,Zs.,1994.Rendszerválság19701990[SystemCrisis].Doctoraldissertation.

Dahrendorf,R.,1990.ReflectionsontheRevolutioninEurope.London:ChattoandWindus.

Ehrlich,É.,1991.Országokversenye19371986[CompetitionbetweenCountries19371986].Budapest:KözgazdaságiésJogiKönyvkiadó.

Erikson,R.andGoldthorpe,J.H.,1992.TheConstantFlux.Oxford:ClarendonPress.

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Falussy,B.andZoltánka,V.,1994.Amagyartársadaloméletmódjánakváltozásaiaz197677.,az198687.ésaz1993.éviéletmód-idomérlegfelvételekalapján[ChangingLifestyleoftheHungarianSocietyAnalysisBasedonLifestyleandTimeBudgetSurveysCarriedOutin197677,198687and1993].Budapest:KSH.

Janos,A.C.,1982.ThePoliticsofBackwardnessinHungary18251945.Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Józan,P.,1988.AhalálozásiviszonyokalakulásaMagyarországon19451985[ChangingMortalityTrendsinHungarybetween1945and1985].Budapest:KSH.

Józan,P.,1989.ContrastsinMortalityTrends.InInternationalPopulationConference,vol.3.NewDelhi,231-46.

Józan,P.,1994.AhalálozásiviszonyokalakulásaMagyarországon19801992[ChangingMortalityTrendsinHungarybetween1980and1992].Budapest:KSH.

Konrád,Gy.andSzelényi,I.,1991.IntellectualsandDominationinPost-CommunistSocieties.InJ.S.ColemanandP.Bourdieu,eds,SocialTheoryforaChangingSociety.NewYork:RussellSage,337-61.

Kopp,M.andSkrabski,Á.,1992.Magyarlelkiállapot[HungarianFlood].Budapest:Végeken.

Kornai,J.,1980.EconomicsofShortage.Amsterdam:North-Holland.

Kornai,J.,1992.TheSocialistSystem.ThePoliticalEconomyofCommunism.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.

Kornai,J.,1993.Útkeresés[SeekingWaysandMeans].Budapest:Századvég.

Zapf,W.,1994.Modernisierung,Wohlfahrtsentwicklungund

Transformation.Berlin:Sigma.

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Chapter2Population:Birth,MarriageandDeathGyörgyVukovich

THEsizeofthepopulationanditsagecompositionaretheresultsofdemographicprocessesfixedindifferentmomentsoftime.Inthischaptersomecharacteristicfeaturesoftheseprocessesareexamined.Wewillfocusspecificallyonfertilityrates,mortalityandthechangingdemographiccompositionofthepopulation.ThesefeatureswillshowthatHungaryhasexperiencedsometrendsthatdifferfrombothitsEasternEuropeancounterpartsandWesternEuropewhileothersfollowsimilarpatterns.

Fertility

ThenumberofbirthsinHungaryhasshownadecliningtendencyduringthelastfortyyearswithsomefluctuations.Thistendencyofcontinuousdeclineisidenticaltotheprocessesalsooccurringinthemajorityofdevelopedcountries.Thefluctuationsinbirthscan,however,beconsideredtobeaspecificdomesticfeature.Therewasanextremelyhighupswinginthebirthrateinthemiddleofthe1950suntilthebeginningofthe1960swhichwasfollowedbyadownswingtoadegreeneverseenbefore.Thenthebirthrate,increasingwithmoderateshort-termfluctuations,hadanotherupswinginthemiddleofthe1970s,followedbyanotherperiodofdecline.Thisdeclinewasinitiallyslowatthebeginningbutincreasedrapidly.Thenewbottomwasmuchlowerthanthatoftheearly1960s.Thenumberofchildrenbornin1989was123,000,thelowestinthehistoryofHungariandemography.In1990therewasamoderateincrease,with125,600childrenborn.

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Asregardsnumberofbirths,HungaryhasafavourableplaceintheEuropeangradation.Forinstance,in1985thegrossbirthrateinHungarywas12.3perthousand:in1990itwas12.1perthousand.In1990therewerelowerratesinAustria(11.6perthousand),Belgium(11.6perthousand),Greece(10.1perthousand),theGermanFederalRepublic(11.4perthousand)andItaly(9.8perthousand).OnecannotfindmuchhigherratesintheotherdevelopedcountriesoftheEuropeanregion.InalltheformersocialistcountriesexceptforBulgaria(11.7perthousand)birthrateshavebeenhigherandinsomemuchhigherthaninHungary.InPolandithasbeenover14.0perthousand,whileinRomaniaithascomeclosetothisnumber.ThebirthrateintheformerSovietUnionin1990was16.8perthousand.Inthenon-Europeancountriesbirthratesareusuallyconsiderablyhigher.ForinstanceinEgyptitis41.1perthousand,inMexicoitis31.5perthousand.Inthedevelopednon-EuropeancountriesbirthratesarelowerbuthigherthaninEurope.Forinstance,inAustraliathebirthrateis14.9perthousand,intheUSA16.7perthousand,inCanada14.9perthousand.

Sincethenumberofbirthsdependsessentiallyonfertilityitisimportanttotraceitsdevelopment.Thetotalfertilityrate(TFR)isthemostsuitableindicator;itistheaveragenumberofchildrenbornebyawomanduringthewholefertileperiodofherlife,calculatedonthebasisofthebirthrateofagivenyearorperiod.Theratehasdeclinedduringthelasttwoorthreedecadesinthecountrieswithhighlydevelopedeconomiesanditisaprocessthathasbeenacceleratinginthelasttenyears.Duringthelastfourdecadesthisindicatorhasdeclinedbymorethanaquarter,andmostsharplybetweenthe1950sand1960s(Figure2.1).

Figure2.1Totalfertilityrate

Page52

Insomedevelopedcountrieswecanfindamuchmoreintensivedeclineinfertility.InHungary,theaveragevalueofTFRinthe1950sandearly1960swasbetween2.7and2.8;nowitisabout1.9.Comparedtothirtyyearsago,womennowgivebirthtoonelesschild.Forthelastthirtyyears,thefertilitylevelinHungaryhasnotbeenhighenoughtomaintainthesimplereproductionofthepopulationinthelongerterm.Thisinevitabledeclineinthepopulationsizewaskeptatbayforaperiodbytheagecompositionofthepopulationandsometimesbybringingforwardthetimingofbirth.Whencomparedtotwenty-threeEuropeancountries,thevalueofcompletedfertilityofthefemalecohortbornin1930isthelowestat2.03,whileincountrieswithsimilarorlowervaluesofTFRpercalendaryear,theTFRforwomenbornin1930ishigherormuchhigher.Thecompletedfertilityofthelastmarriedfemalecohortbornin1940is1.86andthecompletedfertilityofthefemalecohortbornin1920wasalsonothigherthan2.19.

DuringthelastthreeyearstheTFRhasshownaverymoderateincreasefrom1.78to1.84.Thismightbeattributedtotheintroductionofachildcareallowance.Thefemalefertilitydatafromthepopulationcensuses(thetotalnumberofrecordedchildreneverbornebywomen)alsoshowaconsiderabledeclineduringthelastcoupleofdecades.Table2.1showsthenumberofchildreneverbornpermarriedwomanin1920was3.60.Thisvaluedeclinedby1970to2.01andthenby1980to1.89.Thistendencyofdeclinehasstoppedduringthelastdecade.By1990thenumberofchildreneverbornpermarriedwomanhadincreasedslightlyto1.90.

In1920morethan40percentofmarriedwomenborefourormorechildren.By1980thisratehaddeclinedto9percent,then,by1990toabout6percent.Inthelasttwodecadesawomanwithtwochildrenhas

Table2.1:TotalfertilityrateofmarriedwomenNumberofchildreneverbornper100marriedwomen

Childrenper

0 1 2 3 4 (total) marriedwoman

192017.9 16.6 12.5 10.9 42.2 (100) 3.62193017.1 16.9 16.5 12.8 36.7 (100) 3.27194918.4 22.3 20.7 13.1 25.6 (100) 2.57196015.1 25.3 25.8 13.8 19.8 (100) 2.32197013.8 29.2 31.0 12.7 13.2 (100) 2.01198011.9 27.9 39.1 12.3 8.8 (100) 1.8919908.7 25.6 46.1 13.2 6.4 (100) 1.90Source:TheannualdemographicreportsbytheCentralStatisticalOffice

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becomethenorm.In1980itwas39percentandby1990itsvalueattained46percent.Duringtheperiodsince1920,thegreatestincreasehasoccurredinwomenwithtwochildren.

Newformsoffertilitybehaviourarealsoconfirmedbytheresultsofrepresentativesurveysoffamilyplanning.Accordingtotheresultsofafamily-planningsurveycarriedoutin1989,thenumberofchildrenplannedbyyoungcouplesdeclinedfrom2.07to2.00overthecourseofthefirstsixyearsoftheirmarriage.Familieswhoplanatthebeginningoftheirmarriageonhavingthreechildrenwanttohaveonlytwoofthemaftersixyearsofmarriage,whileasmallergroupwhoinitiallyplanontwochildrenwanttohaveonlyoneaftersixyears.

AmajorreasonadvancedforthedeclineinfertilityinsocietieswithaEuropeancultureistheradicalchangeinthefamilymodelbroughtaboutbyindustrializationandcapitalistdevelopment.Historicalprocesseshavetransformedthefamilyfromaproductiveeconomicunitintoaconsumerone;achildisbecomingacommodity.Inlinewiththisprocesstherehasbeenadeclineinmortality(includinginfantmortality)andanincreaseinthenumberofchildrensurvivingtoadulthood.Asaresultfamilieshavelimitedthenumberofchildren.

Asidefromlarge-scalesocio-economicchangeswethinkoneimportantfactoristhedeclineoftraditionalmoralvalues,asecondistheinabilityoffamiliestoprovideforchildrenunderprevailingeconomicconditionsandathirdisthegreateravailabilityofthemeansofcontraception.

Mortality

Fromtheviewpointofmorbidity,thelastforty-fiveyears

canbecharacterizedbytheprevalenceofchronicdegenerative

diseases,dividedintotwoparts,theperiodbetween1945and1964andbetween1965to1990.Bytheearly1960smortalitydeclinedtoalowerlevelthaneverbefore.Between1949and1964lifeexpectancyatbirthincreasedfrom61.4to69.4years,anoutstandingrisecomparedbothtothepreviousperiodandtoothercountriesintheperiodofreconstructionaftertheSecondWorldWar.

However,duringthelasttwenty-fiveyears,mortalityrateshaveincreasedagain.

1Aboutthree-fourthsoftheincreaseinthemortalityrateisduetotheageingofthepopulation,whileone-fourthistheresultofthegrowingmortalitybyage.Theworseningofmortalityconditionswas

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reflectedwithaslightdelayinlifeexpectanciesatbirth.Thiscanbeexplainedpartlybythedeclineinthelifeexpectanciesofmen,theslightincreaseinwomen'slifeexpectancyuntil1989,withadeclinefrom1990onwards.In1990theaveragelifeexpectancyatbirthinHungarywas69.3years(men:65.1years;women:73.7years).Thedeclineinmortalityconditionsoftheadultpopulationisshownbythedeclineinlifeexpectancyofmenaged30by4.3yearsbetween1964and1990,nearthevalueitwasinthe1930s.Thelifeexpectancyofwomendidnotchangeduringthesameperiod.Lifeexpectanciesin1990attheageof30were:men,37.5years;women,45.4years.Ontheotherhand,themortalityofinfants,childrenandadultsunder30hasimprovedagreatdealduringthelasttwodecades.Therelativelyhighinfantmortalityislargelyaresultofinfantsbornwithverylowbirthweight.

Intheperiodbetween1964and1990themortalityofthemalepopulationover30yearsincreasedinallagegroups.Themortalityratesofmenintheagegroups40-4and4559morethandoubled.Themortalityratesofmenbetween4074yearsin1990werehigherthanthosein1947.Intheperiodbetween1964and1990themortalityofwomenbyageincreasedinthegroupsbetween30and64years,whileitdiminishedintheothers.Thedeclineinmortalityconditionsofthemiddle-agedfemalepopulationismuchmoremoderatethanthatofthemalepopulationofthesameage.Thegreatestincreaseinmortalityrates,betweenaquarterandathird,canbefoundinthestratumofwomenagedbetween30-4and40-4years.

Theunfavourablyhighmortalitylevelisduetoseveralconnectedfactors.Thefirstgroupconsistsofunfavourablehabitsoflife,theterritorialmobilityofthepopulation,decliningeconomicconditionsandtraditions.Thesecontributetotheearlyandmassoccurrenceofdegenerativediseases,themostsignificantbeingheartandvascularsystemdiseasesandtumours.Thesecondgroupconsistsofthatbroad

stratumofthesocietythatdonotrecognizethevalueofhealth,havehigh-riskhealthbehaviours,suchasexcessivealcoholconsumptionandtobaccosmoking,andpoorpublichealtheducation.Thethirdgroupreflectsdeficiencyintheinfrastructureofpublichealth,anditsincreasingfailuretofulfilgrowingdemandsorreachinternationalstandards.

Undoubtedly,thesefactorshavealwaysinfluencedmorbidityandmortalityinothercountries,too.Inthehighlydevelopedcountries,however,theseeffectshavepartlydiminishedorceased.NegativeattitudeshavebeenreplacedbypositiveonesandtheamountsinvestedinpublichealthhavebeenmuchgreaterthanthoseinHungary.

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Theabovementionedfactorsandtheagedistributionofthepopulationdeterminethenumberofdeathsperyear.Examiningthegrossmortalityrateforthe1980s,thedatashowthegreatestnumberofdeaths(148,000)wasrecordedin1983decliningbyaboutthreethousandby1990.Thesevaluesmayindicatethebeginningofaslowimprovementinmortality,oratleastahaltintheformerdeterioration.

Thehighmortalityrateisthemajorfactorresponsibleforthedeclineinthepopulationsizethatstartedintheearly1980s.Evenafertilitytrendforseveraldecadeswouldnotassurethesimplereproductionofpopulationinthelongrun,butthedeclineinmortalityduringthelasttwodecades,withaconsiderableimprovementofthesameindicatorinthehighlydevelopedcountries,resultedinnegativepopulationgrowth.

DemographicSituation

Thenumberandcompositionofthepopulation

ThechangeintheHungariandemographicsituationin1993,comparedtothepreviousyears,wasadeclineinbirthsfrom121,724(averylowvalue)in1992to116,500,resultinginthelowestratesofbirthandanaturaldecreaseinthepopulation.Inearly1994therewasamorefavourablepictureofdemographicprocesseswithamoderateincreaseinbirthratesalongwithamoderatedeclineindeathrates.ThebirthrateinHungary,incomparisonwiththeotherEuropeancountries,isnotverylow.AnessentialdifferencefromotherEuropeanpopulations,however,isthattherehasbeenacontinuousdeclineforseveraldecades.InmostEuropeancountries,fertilitycharacterizedbytotalfertilityrateshasbeendecliningforashortertimeandinamoreabruptway.

Thecompositionofthepopulationshowedthreemajortrendsinpopulationmovementrates.Firstinearly1994thepopulationnumber

was10,276,968,down33,211fromthepreviousyear.Thatwasthehighestactualdecreaseintimesofpeace.Thegenderratiointhepopulationbecauseoftheextremelyhighmortalityofmenhascontinuedtochangetotheadvantageofwomen.In1994thenumberofwomenforeverythousandofmenwas1,088,whileinthepreviousyearitwas1,086andin1970itwas1,063.

Thesecondimportanttrendhasbeenthecontinuingincreaseinthenumberaswellastheproportionofdivorcedandwidowedinthetotalpopulation.Amongwidowedpeople,maleswereabout154,000,whilefemaleswereabout795,000andwidowsinceasedby5,000innumber

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Table2.2:Agecompositionofpopulation(%)1980 1990 1994

0 1.5 1.2 1.114 6.6 4.8 4.859 7.2 6.3 6.01014 6.5 8.3 6.7(014) (21.8) (20.5) (18.6)1519 6.1 7.4 8.62024 7.6 6.5 7.12529 8.3 6.0 6.33034 7.1 7.5 6.13539 6.7 8.2 8.0(1539) (35.8) (35.5) (36.1)4044 6.1 6.9 7.74549 6.4 6.5 6.75054 6.5 5.8 6.15559 6.3 5.9 5.5(4059) (25.3) (25.0) (26.0)6064 3.5 5.6 5.46569 5.1 5.1 4.97074 3.9 2.6 4.27579 2.6 3.1 1.98084 1.4 1.7 1.985+ 0.6 0.8 1.0(60+) (17.1) (18.9) (19.3)

intheyear;thenumberofdivorcedwas271.7and391.7respectively.

Thefinalmajortrendhasbeenadefiniteageingofthepopulation.Theproportionofthoseunder14yearsdeclinedfrom20.5percent(1990)to18.6in1994.Therewasamoderateincreaseintheproportionofthoseagedbetween1539and4059years,andofthoseagedover60.In1994theproportionofthelatterwas19.3percent(Table2.2).

Marriage

Therehasbeenacontinuousdeclineinthenumberandrateofmarriages.Thegrossratehasbecauseofthediminishingpopulationsizedeclinedtoalesserextent,whilethenetratehasinthecaseofbothsexesdeclinedconsiderably.Therehasbeenadeclineinmarriageinallagegroupsregardlessofgender.Intheagegroupsunder24yearsitisparticularly

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Table2.3:NumberandrateofmarriagesNo.ofmarriages

per1,000non-marriedaged15

+

Averageageinyearsatmarriage

Year Totalper1,000persons men women men women

197096,612 9.3 81.7 62.1 27.1 23.6198080,331 7.5 68.7 51.1 27.2 24.2199066,405 6.4 47.4 35.9 27.4 24.4199161,198 5.9 42.3 32.3 27.4 24.4199257,005 5.5 38.3 29.3 27.4 24.4199354,009 5.3 35.4 27.2 __ __

strikingintheperiodbetween1980and1993.Theserates(calculatedforthemarriedpopulationoftheappropriateageandsex)declinedinthecaseofmenfrom140.5to85.7andinthecaseofwomenfrom250.5to123.9(Table2.3).

Asregardsfamilystatusbeforemarriage,thereisalsoadeclineinallcasesoffamilystatus.Besidesthesemarriagemovements,thereisanincreasingnumberoftemporaryandlong-termextra-maritalcohabitations,thoughtherehasbeennocontinuousdatacollectionbytheofficialstatisticsonthismatter.Thisincreaseisshownbytheincreasingnumberofchildrenbornoutofwedlock.Inspiteofthedeclineinthetotalnumberofchildrenborn,thoseoutofwedlockincreasedfrom16,511in1990to20,647in1993.

Fertility

Fertilityhascontinuedtodecline.In1993thebirthratewas11.37perthousand,thelowestvalueevermeasured.Birthsperwomenaged1549declinedfrom49.4(1990)to45.3perthousand(1993)andtherewasasimilardeclineinthebirthratecalculatedpermarriedwomen.

Iftheagedistributionofthepopulationtodaywasthesameasitwasin1910,thenthegrossbirthratewouldbe13.80insteadof11.37.Asaresultofthelong-termdeclineinfertilityandincreaseinmortality,therateofthefemalepopulationofchild-bearingageinthepresentagedistributionismuchlowerthanitwasintheyears1919and1949.

Whenexaminingthenumberofbirthsbytheageofmothers,wecanfindastrikingdeclineintheagegroup20-4,whilethereisadefiniteincreaseinthegroupsaged25-9andover40years.Thefertilityofwomenafterashortperiodofincreaseafter1990hadadistinct

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declinein1992and1993,mainlybecauseofthedecreasingratesinthe20-4yearagegroup.Sinceforfertilitythisagegroupisofprimaryimportance,thesignificantdeclineinrecentyearsdeservesattention.Thisdeclinecannotbecounterbalancedbythestagnantorslightlydecliningfertilityratesoftheotheragegroups.

Thedevelopmentoffertilityindicatorsfor1993andbeforeindicatesthattheexpectedincreaseinbirthnumbersofthemorepopulouscohortsastheycometochild-bearingagemightbeconsiderablylessthanestimatedpreviously.In1993thevalueofthenetreproductioncoefficientwas0.804,or20percentlessthanneededforthesimplereplacementofthepopulation.Inthepreviousyearthetotalfertilityratewas1.69.

Thenumberofabortions,afteramaximum(nearly200,000)intheearly1970s,fluctuatedbetweeneightytoninetythousandinthe1980s,then,in1993,itdeclinedto75,300from87,000in1992.Thisdecline,however,wasnotfollowedbyanincreaseinthenumberofbirths,indicatingthatcouplesarepractisingmoreeffectivebirthcontrol.

Mortality

In1993therewere150,244deathsandtheannualgrossmortalityratewas14.6perthousand.Becauseofthedifferentmortalityandagecompositionofthetwosexes,thenumberofmenandwomenwhodiedwas80,498and69,746respectively.Consequently,themortalityrateswere16.32and13.01formalesandfemalesrespectively.Thesedatareflectunfavourablemortalityconditions.In1993thelifeexpectanciesatbirthwere64.53yearsformenand73.81yearsforwomen,asyntheticindicatorbestreflectingtheoveralllevelofmortality(Table2.4).

Thesedataclearlyindicateadramaticdeclineinmalemortalitysince

1966,theyearwiththemostfavourablelifeexpectancyvalues.Femalemortalityhas,withminorfluctuations,stagnatedbutithasneverregainedits1988topvalue.Thedifferentmortalityprocessesofthetwosexeshaveconsiderablyincreasedthedifferencesbetweentheirlifeexpectancies.In1993thelifeexpectancyofwomenatbirthwasmorethannineyearslongerthanthatofmen.Suchagreatdifferencecannotbefoundinanyothercountry.Comparedtothehighlydevelopedcountries,femalemortalityinHungaryisalsoveryhigh.Intheearly1990sthelifeexpectancyofwomenatbirthwasabout7882years,whileinJapanitwasnearly83years.OnlyintheformersocialistcountriesofCentralandEasternEurope(exceptforRomania)couldwe

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Table2.4:Lifeexpectancyatbirthformenandwomen,196093Men Women (Difference)

1949 59.28 63.40 (4.12)1955 64.77 68.67 (3.90)1960 65.89 70.10 (4.21)1966 67.53a 72.23 (4.70)1970 66.31 72.08 (5.77)1980 65.45 72.70 (7.25)1981 65.46 72.86 (7.40)1982 65.63 73.18 (7.55)1983 65.08 72.99 (7.91)1984 65.05 73.16 (8.11)1985 65.09 73.07 (7.98)1986 65.30 73.21 (7.91)1987 65.67 73.74 (8.07)1988 66.16 74.03a (7.87)1989 65.44 73.79 (8.35)1990 65.13 73.71 (8.58)1991 65.02 73.83 (8.81)a1992 64.55 73.73 (9.18)1993 64.53 73.81 (9.28)aThehighestlifeexpectanciesandthelargestdifference

findvaluesmuchlessthanintheleadingcountriesbutneverthelessmorefavourablethaninHungary.

Suchadeclineinthemortalityconditionsofmenisduetoanextremeworseningofmortalityofthemiddle-agedpopulation.Sincethemid-1960s,mortalityratesofthepopulationaged3554havemorethandoubled.Table2.5showstheaveragemalemortalityrateperthousandfor1993,forthefavourable19591960yearsandforAustria.

Table2.5:Mortalityratesofmen(perthousand)Hungary

195960 1993 Austria,1992

30-4 1.99 3.20 1.3635-9 2.54 5.95 1.8840-4 3.48 9.13 2.9445-9 5.50 12.97 4.8550-4 9.14 19.58 7.1355-9 16.08 25.67 11.2660-4 25.30 36.36 18.6065-9 40.02 49.43 28.39

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Thereis,however,adefinitedeteriorationinallgroups.Amongthehighlydevelopedcountries,themortalitylevelofAustriaisbetterthanaverage.ThecomparisonoftheAustrianandHungariandataneedsnocomment,especiallywhentakingintoconsiderationthattheserateswereverycloseintheyears195960.Althoughitisdifficulttoexaminethecausesofthedramaticdecline,thestructureofthecausesofdeathisverysimilarinthehighlydevelopedcountriesandinHungary,withsomespecialexceptionssuchasaccidentsandsuicide.ThecharacteristicfeatureofthedomesticsituationisthatthemajordiseasesresultingindeathoccurinmuchyoungeragegroupsthaninWesterncountries,duetoanunconcernedattitudetowardthewayoflifeandhealth,and,inawidersense,totherelativelypoorlevelofpublichealthinfrastructure.

Note

1ForadetailedanalysisofmortalityseeTheDevelopmentofMortalityinHungarybetween1945and1985(MortalityStudies,5)issuedbytheCentralStatisticalOffice.TheauthorisPéterJózan.

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Chapter3DenominationAndReligiousPracticeMiklósTomkaandIstvánHarcsa

THISchapterisconcernedwiththechangeindenominationalcompositioninHungaryandthesocialdeterminantsofreligiousaffiliationandreligiosity.Itsummarizesthemostimportantconclusionsofsociologicalstudiesbasedonlargesurveysconductedbetween1971and1991andresultsfromthe1992-3annualsurveybytheHungarianCentralStatisticalOfficeonsocialstructureandmobility(Bukodietal.1994;VKSH1993).

OverthepastcenturyitisgenerallythoughtthattheproportionoftheCatholicpopulationhasincreased,whiletheLutheranpopulationhasdecreased.ThetotalsizeofthedifferentdenominationswereobviouslydifferentbeforeandaftertheFirstWorldWar.Beforethatwar,theHungarianempireincludelargepartsofCentralEuropewhichlaterbecamenewstates.Thuspre-FirstWorldWarHungaryhadaboutthreetimesthepopulationandaboutfourtimestheterritoryof1918Hungary.Thenewcountrieswere,however,notonlyethnicallybutdenominationallymixedwithastrongrepresentationofOrthodoxbelieversandUniates(GreekCatholics).Ontheotherhand,HungarybecameethnicallyhomogenouswithlargegroupsofHungarianminoritiesremainingintheneighbouringnewcountries.Withthecountry'sterritorialchangeafterthePeaceTreatyofTrianon(1920),thesignificantproportionofHungariansadheringtotheOrthodoxreligionallbutdisappeared.TheCalvinistproportionincreasedbyoneandahalfinrelationtothepreviousperiod(Karner,1931;Kovacsis,1963;Nyárády,1981;KSH,1992).Inspiteofallthesechanges,inbothperiodstheCatholicproportionofthe

populationcontinuedtoincreasewhiletheCalvinistproportioncontinuedtodecline(Table3.1).

Thereisacorrelationbetweenreligiousaffiliationandsocio-economic

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Table3.1:Hungary'sdenominations,18691949CatholicaCalvinistLutheranOther

Pre-VersaillesTreaty(Trianon)territoryb1869 57.4 14.9 8.1 19.61880 58.1 14.7 8.1 19.11890 58.9 14.6 7.8 18.71900 59.6 14.4 7.5 18.51910 60.3 14.3 7.2 18.2

Present-dayterritory1910 65.0 21.4 6.4 7.21920 66.1 20.9 6.2 6.81930 67.2 20.9 6.1 5.81941 68.2 20.8 6.0 5.01949 70.5 21.9 5.2 2.4

aRoman,Greek,andAmericanCatholicbExcludesCroatiaandSlavoniaSource:Censusdata,asreprintedbyKovascics(1963:306)

characteristics.TheCatholicreligionhashadanaboveaverageratioofbelieversinthecountry'scentralandwesternregionsandamongthelandlesspeasantry.TheCalvinistsweredisproportionatelypresentintheeasternregionsandamongthesmallandmiddle-sizelandowners.LutheranswereconcentratedintheurbanareasandamongtheethnicSlovaks,whiletheJewishpopulationwasconcentratedinthelargercities.Thereweredifferencesineducation,income,lifestyleandcultureamongthedifferentreligiousgroupings.

Theeffectsoftherecentpastonreligiousstatisticsarepartlyevidentbutnumericallyunclarified.Forexample,theHolocaustandtheensuingemigrationreducedtheJewishdenominationtoone-tenthorevenlessofitsoriginalnumber,whileasignificantnumberofSlovaksandGermansleftHungaryeitherviapopulationexchange,

deportationsorvoluntaryemigration,thusreducingthesizeoftheLutheranChurch.Thedeportationsoftheearly1950s,thecontinuousinfluxintourbanareas,atrendtowardverticalmobilityandthediscriminationagainstthosepractisingtheirreligionallcontributedtowardbreakingdownthepreviouslyexistingreligioussub-culturesandhinderedtheirregeneration.

ExtensivedenominationalstatisticswerelastpreparedinHungaryin1949.Althoughdatafromrepresentativesamplesexistonlysince1972(Tomka,1991),severalauthoritativeforeignsourcespublisheddetailedestimateddataonHungary'sdenominationalstructuresoverthelastdecades(Table3.2).Barrett's(1982)WorldChristianEncyclopedia

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Table3.2:DenominationalstructureinHungary,1957881957a 1980a 1980b 1980c 1988b 1988d 1991d

Catholic 67 61.4 58.6 53.9 66.2 70.6 72.2Calvinist 20 16.8 23.9 21.6 17.9 20.6 20.3Lutheran 6 3.3 4 4.4 3.5Jewish ? 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.4 0.4 0.2Other ? 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4Noreligion ? 17 16 23.1 9.5 3.7 3.4aEstimatesdonotmentioncriteriausedforclassifyingintodenominationsbEstimatesgivecriteriausedasbaptismsandinscriptionscEstimatesbasedonself-identificationdSurveydataSources:1957(Bilan,1964);1980(András);1980(Barrett,1982);1988;(Tomka,1991).1988,1991surveys(Tomda,1994,334f.).

becameasourcewhosedatawithreferencetoitornotnumerousforeignandnativewritershaveadopted(Clévenot,1987;Gergely,1986;Voss,1984).Theseestimateswerenotbasedonsystematicsurveysbutoninternalecclesiasticalreports(MorelandAndrás,1984),someappearingininternationalpublications(AnnuariumStatisticumEcclesiae,1989;WorldAllianceofReformedChurches,1986;BaptistWorldAlliance1984).However,statisticalaccuracyisnotguaranteedinecclesiasticalreports.Systematicerrorscanslipin,suchastheinsufficienttrackingofgeographicalmobility.Norcanonedismissthedistortionsdictatedbyvariousinterests(Tomka,1988a).

Thefourteenstudieswithlargesamplesurveysbetween1972and1991(Table3.3)supporttheearlierwork.TherehasbeenaslightincreaseintheproportionofCatholicsovertime,whiletheproportionofCalvinistsandLutheranshasdeclined.AsisconsistentwithtrendsinotherWesterncountriestherehasbeenanincreaseintheproportionofthepopulationwhoindicatethattheyhavenoreligiousaffiliation.

populationwhoindicatethattheyhavenoreligiousaffiliation.Amalgamatingsurveysbetween1978and1991makesitpossibletoundertakeadetailedexaminationofthedenominationalstructureofthepopulation.The

Table3.3:Religiousaffiliationbyage,1992CatholicCalvinistLutheranOther

religionNoreligion

Unknown

1829 61.3 18.0 3.0 1.8 14.1 1.83039 67.3 20.3 3.3 2.7 4.4 1.94049 67.0 22.3 4.2 2.8 1.8 1.95059 69.1 22.3 5.0 2.5 0.5 0.760+ 68.8 22.5 5.5 2.9 0.4 0.7Difference:Old-Young

7.5 4.5 2.5 1.1 -13.7 -1.1

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sampleschosenwererestrictedbythequestionwording,sowehaveusedintegratedsamplesproducedfromstudiesdonepartlybetween1972and1981andin1985,andpartlyfromannualsamplesbetween1984and1991.

AgeandDenominationalReproduction

Thecomparisonoftheyoungestandoldestagegroupsisparticularlysuitablefortheillustrationofstructuralchange.Whenweexaminereligiousaffiliationwithindifferentagegroups,(Table3.3),thespreadofthosewithnoreligiousaffiliationismuchstrongeramongtheyoungthantheold.Thus,14.1percentofthoseaged18to29reportednoaffiliationin1992comparedto0.4percentofthoseaged60andolder.TheproportionofLutheransunder25islessthantwo-thirdsthatofthose60orolder,andtheCalvinistratioisalsosignificantlylowerintheyoungeragegroups.Bycontrast,theproportionofCatholicsandotherdenominationsintheyoungergroupisonlyslightlylowerthanintheoldergroup.ThedecreasewithintheJewishdenominationissolargethatseveralProtestantsectsbypassitintheyoungeragegroups.Attheinstitutionallevel,onecancomparetheshiftintheoverallmembershipofthechurches.AmongCatholics,theratiooftheyoungeragegroupdeclinedslightlyincomparisontotheoldergroup,butitgrewsignificantlyinrelativesizeincomparisontootherdenominationsinthe1978to1991period.ThisraisesthepossibilitythattheCatholicprevalenceinthenon-adultgroupisevengreaterthanisshownhere.

ReligiousEndogamy

Earlierstudiesprovideonlyfragmentedinformationonthereligiousaffiliationsofhusbandsandwives(Tomka,1980;Utasi,1992),yetinter-marriageacrossreligiousgroupsaffectsthepreservationofvaluesandtraditions.Giventhelimitationsofthesamplesize,the

analysisisrestrictedtotheCatholicandCalvinistdenominations,althoughcertainbroadtendenciescanbeshownfortheLutheransandforthosewithnoreligiousaffiliation.

EndogamyishighestamongCatholics(Table3.4).Morethanfour-fifthsofCatholicschoosepartnerswithintheirdenomination.TheproportionatevalueforCalvinistsis54percent,and36percentforLutherans.Thisrelativelylargediscrepancycouldpossiblybeexplainedbythedifferenceindenominationalsize.Beinginthemajority,

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Table3.4:Extentofreligiousendogamy(Wife)

CatholicCalvinist Lutheran OtherNoreligion Unknown(Husband) (Rowpercentages)Catholic 81.3 12.6 3.0 1.5 0.9 0.7Calvinist 39.2 53.7 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.8Lutheran 47.5 12.9 35.6 4.0 __ __Other 36.7 23.3 __ 36.7 3.3 __Noaffiliation 46.4 14.3 1.8 1.8 32.1 3.6

Catholicshaveamuchhigherchanceofchoosingapartnerwithinthesamedenominationthandotheotherdenominations.Toalesserdegree,thedifferencepresumablycanbeexplainedinthatthecapabilityfordenominationalmaintenanceisgreaterforCatholicsthanforCalvinists.Thislatterassumptionisstrengthenedbydifferencesobservedintheday-to-daypracticesofdifferentreligiousgroups,suchasbaptismandchurchattendance.However,endogamyisstillrelativelyhighamongthesmallerreligiousgroupsthatmakeuptheothercategorywithone-thirdchoosingapartnerwiththesamereligiouscategory.Theprobableexplanationforthisisagreaterinnercohesivenessofthesmallerchurchesandtheirdistanceandtheirantipathytowardthebig,institutionalizedchurchesandtheiradherents.Aroundone-thirdofthosewithnoreligiousaffiliationarealsomarriedtopartnerswhoalsoreportnoreligiousaffiliation.

Ifwelookatreligiousendogamywithindifferentlevelsofeducationalattainment,thehigherthehusband'seducationalattainment(andpresumablythewife's),thelowertheprobabilitythatmembersofthesamedenominationmarry.ThisassociationissignificantlystrongeramongCalviniststhanamongCatholicswith40percentofCalvinistswithpost-secondaryeducationreportinganendogamousmarriage,14percentbelowtheCalvinistaverage,ascomparedto75percentof

Catholicswithpost-secondaryeducation,6percentbelowtheCatholicaverage.Severalfactorscombinetoexplainthisphenomenon.Aspirationforahighereducationcharacterizesthelesstraditionalgroups,wheredenominationalopennessisprobablygreater.Conversely,ahighereducationalattainmentusuallymakespeoplemoreopenorreceptivetonewideasandvalues.Thisfavoursthespreadofinter-denominationalorexogamousmarriages.Finally,theattainmentofahighereducationgenerallygoeshand-in-handwithanalienationfromthetradition-preservingsocialgroupoforienta-

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Table3.5:Religiousaffiliationofgrandparents,parentsandmarriedcouples

(Husbands)aPaternalandmaternalgrandfather

parentsmarriedcouples

change

BothCatholic 63.6 64.3 55.9 -7.7BothProtestant 22.0 21.9 16.3 -5.7HusbandCatholic-wifeProtestant

3.4 3.8 10.1 +6.7

HusbandProtestant-wifeCatholic

8.4 5.5 10.2 +1.8

Othermixedcombination

2.6 4.5 7.5 +4.9

aMissingcasesexcluded

tionachangeinsocialconnectionsandencounteringanenvironmentinwhichthereislessemphasisplacedonreligiousaffiliation.

Afurtherimportantquestioniswhetheramongthosesurveyedparentalreligiousaffiliationinfluencesthepropensityofchildrentowardsendogamousmarriages.Dothereligiousvaluesandattitudesreceivedathomeplayaroleinthechoiceofapartner?Beforethe1940sthereevolvedfairlystrictcustomsthemajorityofthosegettingmarriedchoseapartnerwithinthesamedenomination.Wheretherewasinter-marriageacrossdifferentdominations,onecouldexpectseriousfamilyconflicts.Consequently,suchmarriageswererare.

Table3.5examinesthereligiousaffiliationsofthehusband'spaternalandmaternalgrandfatherandthehusband'sparentsandcomparesthemwithcurrentmarriages.ThepercentofendogamousCatholicmarriagesamonggrandparents(paternalandmaternalgrandfather)andparents(fatherandmother)wasapproximately64percent,22percentwereendogamousCalvinistmarriagesandtheremainingportionconsistsofdifferentmixedfamilies.Twoconclusionscanbedrawn.

Thefirstisthatthedenominationalcompositionofthefamilieswasrelativelystableinpreviousgenerations;thesecondisthatpercentagedistributionresemblesthedenominationalproportionthatwascharacteristicofthetotalpopulation.

Whenwecomparepresentmarriageswiththoseoftheparents,therateofmixedmarriageshasnoticeablyincreasedinthelastthreetofourdecades.Theincreaseinmixedmarriagesvariesacrossdifferentreligiousgroups.WherebothparentsareCatholic,82percentofmarriagesarealsoCatholic.IninstanceswherebothparentsareCalvinist,only63percentofthemarriagesareCalvinist.Among

Calvinists,theextentofendogamousmarriagedeclinesmorerapidlythanamongCatholics.

EducationandDenomination

Theeducationalattainmentofthedifferentdenominationalgroupsandthosewithnoreligiousaffiliationshowsquiteasignificantstructuraldifference.Closetotwo-thirdsoftheadultswithnoaffiliation,morethanhalfoftheJewishreligion,andclosetohalfoftheothercategoryhavesecondaryorpost-secondaryeducation.Therearealsoconsiderabledeviationswithinthethreehistoricalchurches,thebigchurcheswithdeeprootsinHungarianhistory.TheeducationleveloftheLutheransishigherthanthatofeithertheCatholicsortheCalvinists.Thepatternisaffectedbythehistoricalpatternsofbehaviourwhichcontinuetobepresent.Inaddition,religionwasabasisforexclusionfromhighereducationduringtheCommunistperiod,andthosewithaspirationsforupwardmobilitywereexpectedtobeatheistswithnoreligiousaffiliation.

TheratioofthehighesttothelowestlevelofeducationalattainmentshowninthelastcolumnofTable3.6indicatesthateducationalattainmentishigherforthosewithnodenominationalaffiliation,Jews,Lutheransandtheothercategory,andtheprobabilityofobtainingasecondaryorpost-secondaryeducationisbelowaverageforCatholicsorCalvinists.Accordingtothe1992data,ofthosebelongingtothethreebigchurches(Catholic,CalvinistandLutheran)one-third(32.8

Table3.6:Religiousaffiliationbyeducation,average197891(%)Educationlevelslessthangrade8 grade8 secondary

college/universityratioofhightolowedu.

Catholic 72.1 71.8 70.3 69.2Calvinist 22.7 21.6 19.1 19.4Lutheran 4.3 3.7 4.8 5.4Jewish 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0Other 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4

Other 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4Noaffiliation

0.2 1.8 4.3 4.4

Missingdata 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2(N) (23,629)(43,103) (20,630) (8,657)

Source:Tomka(1994:337)

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percent)completedgrade8orless,one-third(35percent)obtainedaskilledworker'scertificateandone-third(32.1percent)asecondaryoruniversitydiploma.Amongthenon-affiliated,theratioofthosewithgrade8orlessisonly23percent.Incontrast,thenumberwithsecondarycertificatesordiplomasistwiceaslarge,44.3percent(Bukodietal.1994).

ReligiousReproduction

Changesthatwereoccurringinreligiousaffiliationshavebeenattributedtosixfactors.ThesewerethehigherbirthratioforCatholics;lowerbirthratesamongCalvinists;themovementofpeoplefromthelargeProtestantchurchestothesects;politicalfactors;mixedmarriages;andtherigidCatholicstandwhichinsistedonalloffspringbeingbaptizedasCatholic.Inthelastfiftyyearstherehasalsobeenamovetowardde-ChristianizationwhichhasbeenapparentinWesternsocieties.Althoughreligiosityandreligiousaffiliationarenotidentical,andonedoesnotassumetheother,itcanbepresumedthatthosewithlowerlevelsofreligiositywillbelesslikelytomaintaintheirreligiousaffiliations.

Inthepasttwodecadesopinionsurveysandsociologicalresearchposedthequestionaboutreligiosityintwoways.Between1972and

Table3.7:Religiousaffiliationandstrengthofcommitmenta(%)Baptismsorinscription

Religiousinownwayb ReligiouscReligiousd

Catholic 71.3 75.1 77.0 78.6Calvinist 21.1 19.2 18.1 15.5Lutheran 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.6Jewish 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2Other 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.9Noaffiliation 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.2Missingdata 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1

(n) (96,019) (35,628) (19,323) (8,100)

Percentoftotalpopulation

100 60 40 13

aAverageofdatabetween1978-91bRespondentswhoindicatedIamreligiousaccordingtotheteachingsoftheChurchorIamreligiousinmyownwaycRespondentswhosaidyestothequestion:Areyoureligious?dRespondentswhoindicatedtheyarereligiousaccordingtotheteachingsofthechurchSource:Tomka(1994)

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1981theygenerallyusedasimpleyes-noquestion:Areyouareligiousperson?YesorNo.From1984afive-itemscalehasbecomewidespread(Table3.7).Whenthetwohighestpointsonthescalearegrouped,ahigherratioofreligiosityisprovidedthanfromthesimpledichotomousquestionaskedpriorto1984.

Regardlessofwhichquestionisused,thereisasignificantdifferenceinthepercentagewhoconsiderthemselvesreligiousamongthedifferentdenominations.AccordingtoCentralStatisticalOffice,fortheadultpopulation(KSH,1993)48percentbaptizedasCatholicspractisetheirreligion;0.6percentarepractisingmembersofanotherdenomination;31.5percentarebelievers,butnon-practising;and19.9percentarenon-believersoratheists.Bycomparison,thepercentagepractisinginthedenominationoftheirbaptismis42.7percentamongLutheransandamongCalvinists39.8percent.Approachedfromtheotheraspect,thecombinednon-believersandatheistsamongbaptizedLutheransis21.4percentandbaptizedCalvinists,25.5percent.

Thestudiesrepresentfourdifferentapproachesinthewayinwhichreligiosityisdefined(seeTable3.7).Thefirstshowsthedenominationaldistributionofthetotalpopulationusingbaptismalrecordsasastartingpoint.Thesecondmeasureshowsapproximately60percentarereligiousinthebroadcastsenseonaveragefrom1978to91(thepercentageincreasesto74percentin1993).Thethirdmeasureistheyes-noquestionregardingreligiosity:40percentoftheadultpopulationconsidersitselfreligious.Finally,thefourthlooksatthosewhoarereligiousaccordingtotheteachingsoftheChurch.Inpractice,thisisthegroupthatgoestochurchonSundays;theaverageintheperiod197891was13.5percentand16.6percentin1994.Comparingthefourapproaches,weseethatthestrongerthereligiositycriteria,thehighertheproportionofCatholic,Lutheran,andothernumbers;andconverselythelowertheproportionof

Calvinists.

Ifwecomparedenominationalidentificationaccordingtoreligionregisteredatbirthandtheactualpracticeofreligion,therearedifferencesamongthevariousdenominations(Table3.8).Thirty-eightpercentofCatholics,32percentofLutheransand28percentofCalvinistspractiseinChurch:theyparticipateatreligiousservicesmoreorlessregularly,sendtheirchildrentoreligiousinstructionandparticipateinthereligiouscommunityondifferentoccasions.OneoutoffivemembersofCatholic,CalvinistorLutheranchurchesclaimtofollowreligiouspracticesnotininstitutionalformsbutasprivateprayersanddevotions.Agroupofthesamesizepreservesadenominationaladherenceandidentitywithout

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Table3.8:ReligiousaffiliationandreligiouspracticeFormofreligiouspractice

inchurch doesnotpractice

regularlyseldom

inownway

butisabeliever

non-believer/atheist

unknownCatholic 15.1 22.6 9.9 30.4 19.2 2.8Calvinist 8.2 19.7 12.8 30.9 24.2 4.3Lutheran 10.3 21.5 11.4 32.5 20.5 3.7Otherreligion

29.8 9.8 9.8 30.1 18.4 2.1

Noaffiliation

0.4 0.4 0.7 5.9 84.9 7.8

Unknown 1.1 2.6 0.8 8.4 35.0 52.1Total 12.7 20.6 10.0 29.0 23.6 4.0Source:Bukodi,etal.(1994:125)

believing.Thepercentageofnon-believersandatheistsisfrom19to24percentforCatholics,LutheransandCalvinists.

Therearerelativelyfewcaseswherepeopleleavetheirdenominationofbaptismandjoinanotherdenomination.Forthosejoiningthelargestdenomination(Catholic),thisproportiondoesnotexceed2percent.Anysignificantdifferenceobservedisamongthosewhobecomenon-believers,atheistsorwhoaresimplybelieversbutdonotpractisetheirfaith.Thechangetonon-believeroratheistishighestforthosebelongingtotheCalvinistdenomination.Thusthemaintainingcapacityofthechurchistheweakesthere(Table3.9).

Thereasonforthereductioninthenumberofpeoplewhopracticeareligionisnotinter-denominationalmigrationbutde-Christianization.ThesizeofthiseffectvariesamongthethreedominatingreligiousculturesinHungary.Themajorityofthosewhonolongerpractisea

Table3.9:Religiousaffiliationaccordingtobaptismandpractice

(Religionpractised) (Non-practising)Baptised CatholicCalvinistLutheranotherbelievernon-believer,

atheistCatholic 47.8 0.3 0.1 0.2 31.7 20.0Calvinist 1.8 39.8 0.1 0.3 32.5 25.5Lutheran 1.5 0.2 42.7 0.6 33.7 21.4Other 2.0 0.6 __ 47.5 31.2 18.8Noaffiliation

0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 6.4 92.2

Total 32.7 8.7 1.9 1.7 30.6 24.5Source:Bukodi,etal.(1994:127)

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religionarestillbelievers;howeverthisissmallestamongsttheCalvinists.ThusthemaintainingcapacityoftheCalvinistChurchisweakest.

Surveysofthelasttwenty-fouryearsprovideclearproofofaslowbutcontinuousshiftinthedenominationalstructureofHungariansociety.Themostimportantnewphenomenonistheemergenceandgrowthinthepopulationofthosenotaffiliatedtoanychurch.Thechangeintherelativesizeofdenominationsfollowshistoricalpatterns.CatholicismisgrowingbiggerbycomparisonwiththeCalvinistsandLutherans.ThebiggestchallengefortheLutheranpopulationisthelackofyouth.Therearemarkeddifferencesineducationalattainmentamongthedifferentdenominations.JewsandLutheranshavethehighestlevelsofeducationalattainment,andCalvinistshaveparticularlylowlevels.Religiousendogamyisweakening.Before,itwaslessexplicitamongProtestantsthanCatholics,butthedissolutionofdenominationalendogamycharacterizestheProtestantpopulationparticularly.Denominationaldistributiondependsonthecriteriaused.Distributionaccordingtodenominationatbirthiscontestedbysomeasbeingirrelevantforthepresentsituation.Ifreligiouspeoplearetakenasabasisofdenominationalbelonging,religiosityhastobedefined.Thestrongerthecriteriaforreligiouscommitmentused,thehighertheproportionoftheCatholicandLutherangroups,thelowertheproportionofCalvinistsandthelowertheproportionofreligiouspeopleinthepopulation.

References

András,Imre,1984.LÉglisedeHongrie'.ProMundiVita:Dossiers,2,132.SecretariaStatusRationariumGeneraleEcclesiae,1989.

AnnuariumStatisticumEcclesiae,1989.VaticanCity:SecretariaStatusRationariumGeneraleEcclesiae.

BaptistWorldAlliance,1984.TheWorldFamilyofBaptists.WashingtonDC:BaptistWorldAlliance.

Barrett,D.B.,ed.,1982.WorldChristianEncyclopedia.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.

EncyclopédieCatholiquedeMondeChrétienIII.BilandeMonde,1964.Tournai:Casterman.

Bukodi,Erzsébet,Harcsa,IstvánandReisz,László,1994.Társadalmitagozódás,mobilitás.Az1992.mobilitásvizsgálatalapján[SocialStructureandMobilityAccordingtoDataofMobility-surveyof1992].Budapest:KözpontiStatisztikaiHivatal.

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Clévenot,M.,ed.,1987.L'étatdesreligionsdanslamonde.Paris:Ed.DécouverteEd.Cerf.

Gergely,Jeno

*,1986.II.JánosPál.(JohnPaulII)Budapest:Kossuth.

Karner,Károly,1931.AfelekezetekMagyarországonastatisztikaimegvilágításhan[DenominationsinHungaryinStatisticalView].Debrecen:DebreceniNyomda.

Kovacsics,József,1963.Magyarországtörtélmidemográfiája[HistoricalDemographyofHungary].Budapest:KözgazdaságiésJogiKönyvhiasló.

KSH(CentralStatisticalOffice)KözpontiStatisztikaiHivatal,1992.Történetistatisztikaiidosorok*18671992[TrendsinHistoricalStatistics.18671992].Budapest:KözpontiStatisztikaiHivatal.

KSH(CentralStatisticalOffice)KözpontiStatisztikaiHivatal,1993.VallásiéletMagyarországon1992-ben[ReligiousLifeinHungaryin1992].Budapest:KözpontiStatisztikaiHivatal.

Morel,J.andAndrás,E.,1984.HandbuchdesungarischenKatholizismus.Wien:UngarischesKirchensoziologischesInstitut.

Nyárády,R.Károly,1981.Erdélynépességéneketnikaiésvallásitagolódásaamagyarállamalapítástóladualizmuskoráig[EthnicandDenominationalstructureofTransylvaniafromtheFoundationoftheHungarianStateuntilthePeriodoftheAustro-HungarianMonarchy].Budapest:KSHNépesedéstudományiKutatóintézet.

Tomka,Miklós,1980.Avallásosönjellemzésnéhánytendenciája[TendenciesofReligiousIdentification].Világosság,6,360-6.

Tomka,Miklós,1988a.Amagyarországikatolicizmusstatisztikájaés

szociológiája[StatisticsandSociologyofHungarianCatholicism].InL.Turányied.,MagyarKatolikusAlmanachII[HungarianCatholicAlmanacII].Budapest:SzentIstvánTársulat,510-77.

Tomka,Miklós,1988b.Elveszettkatolikusok?avagy,mennyiakatolikusoklétszámamaMagyarországon?[LostCatholics?or:HowManyCatholicsLiveinContemporaryHungary?].Teológia,2,11318.

Tomka,Miklós,1991.Magyarkatolicizmus1991[HungarianCatholicism:1991].Budapest:OrszágosLelkipásztoriIntézet.

Tomka,Miklós,1994.Felekezetiszerkezetfelekezetireprodukeió[DenominationalStructure,ReproductionofDenominations].StatisztikaiSzemle,45,32943.

Utasi,Ágnes,1992.Vallásiházasságihomogámiaéskulturálisreprodukció[ReligiousHomogamyofMarriagesandCulturalReproduction].SzociológiaiSzemle,2,4559.

Voss,E.,ed.,1984.DieReligionsfreiheitinOsteuropa.Zollikon:GZW.

WorldAllianceofReformedChurches,1986.HandbookofMemberChurches.Genf:WorldAllianceofReformedChurches.

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Chapter4TheScopeoftheStateandPrivateSectorsTamásKolosiandEndreSik

OFCENTRALimportanceinthechangingstructureoftheHungarianeconomyisthechangeinthescopeofthepublicandprivatesectors.Theproportionofprivatepropertywasestimatedontheprincipleofdominance.IftherewasevidencethatthemajorityofownershipofthepropertywasprivateaccordingtotherecordsoftheTaxOffice,thepropertywasconsideredprivate.Bytheearly1980sthestatisticsforpropertywerealteredbytransferringtheproductionofsmallcompanies,smallco-operatives,householdfarmingandcomplementaryfarmplotsintotheprivatesector.

Theproportionofprivate-sectorinvolvementintheproductionofgrossdomesticproductionwasalreadysignificant(10percent)asearlyastheearly1980s,andifproductioninthehiddeneconomyisincluded,itwas17percent.Rapidexpansionstartedinthe1990s(ÁrvayandVértes,1994).In1993thepublicsectorlostitsdominanceintheproductionofGDP(Figure4.1).Theprivatesectorislargerstillwhenonetakesintoconsiderationproductionfromthehiddeneconomyaswell.Accordingtointernationallyaccepteddefinitions,itincludesthoseformsofactivitythatcreate(orincreasethevalueof)productsorservicesthatsatisfyrealsocialdemands.TheseactivitiesareconsideredhiddenbecauseincomesderivedfromthemarenotreturnedtotheTaxOfficeortheStatisticalOffice.Wedonotincludeinthecategoryofhiddeneconomytheincomesobtainedbymeansofcorruptionandotherindictableoffensesinvolvingimprisonment(ÁrvayandVértes,1994a).TherehasbeenanincreaseinboththeabsolutevalueandtherelativeproportionofGDPproducedinthe

hiddeneconomy(cf.Sik,1992).Withtheinclusionofthehiddeneconomy,theshareofGDPheldbytheprivatesectorwillbehigherthanthatofthepublicsector.

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Figure4.1PrivatepropertyinofficialandtotalGDP

Source:ÁrvayandVértes,1994

PublicandPrivateSectorsinTermsofEmploymentandAmountofWorktime

Inthischapterwewillusedatafromthe1993HungarianHouseholdPanel,asurveyconductedinApril-May,1993.ThebaseperiodforestimationwaseitherMarch1993orthetotalperiodfromApril1992,dependingonthetopic.Inthecaseofagriculture,theestimatesarebasedononetypicalweekoftheyear.TheHungarianHouseholdPaneldataincludes2,218employedpersons,ofwhomsixty-sixwereofficiallyunemployedbutinfacthadfull-timejobs.Theywereaskedwhetherthecompanytheyworkedforwastotallypublic,totallyprivate,orpartlyprivateandpartlypubliclyowned.

Twoestimatesoftheamountoftimespentatworkwerecalculated:theactivityoftherespondentinMarch1993andactivityduringthepasttwelvemonths.WhenreferringtotheformerestimateweusethetermMarchestimateandwhenreferringtothelatterweusethetermannualestimate.InthecaseoftheMarchestimate,althoughstarting

fromindividualdata,wemadeourcalculationsbyinterpolatingaggregates,inthecaseoftheannualestimatewecarriedoutallcalculationsonthe

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basisofindividualdata.WhencarryingouttheMarchestimate,inthecaseofemployedpersonsnotknowingthesectorialstatusoftheirworkplaces,weassumedthattheirworktimehadbeendividedthesamewayastheworktimeofthosewithknownsectoralstatus;inthecaseoftheannualestimate,personswhodidnotknowthesectorialstatusoftheirworkplaceswereleftoutfromtheanalysis.IntheMarchestimate,thosewithoutjobsaredividedbetweenthetwosectors,whiletheannualestimateincludesallofthemintheprivatesector.FortheMarchestimate,besidesthepublicandprivatesectors,wedistinguishedthecategoryofmixedownershipaswell.Inthecaseoftheannualestimatewehaveincludedthelatterintheprivatesector.

EstimatingtheMonthlyMarchData

Westartedourcalculationswiththeestimationofthenumberofpersonsemployedineachsectoralongwiththeestimationoftheprincipalandextraworktimeinthesesectors.Wecompleteditwithanestimationoftheworktimeofpeoplewithoutjobsbutworkingregularlyforsalary(furtheronwewillcallthemworkerswithoutformaljobs.Thenextstepwastheestimationoftheextrahoursworked.Detailedquestionswereaskedaboutthenumberandaverageworktimeofpersonsoccupiedinagriculturalsmall-scaleproduction,ofthosehavingsecondaryemploymentorpart-timejobsandofthoseundertakingoddjobs.Theaveragenumberofworkinghoursinaweekwasestimatedonthebasisoffrequencyandhoursofworkoneachoccasion.Unfortunately,thedatacannotbebrokendownbysector.Thus,fortheestimationofthetotalamountofworktimeweassumedthatsecondaryemploymentandpart-timejobsweredividedamongthesectorsinthesameproportionsasthemainjobswere;inthecaseofoddjobsweassigned20percentoftheworktimetothepublicsector,10percenttothemixedsectorand70percenttotheprivatesector,whilethetotalworktimespentforagriculturalsmall-

scaleproductionwasassignedtotheprivatesector.

Onthebasisoftheseassumptions,whilenearlyhalf(49.6percent)oftheemployedworkinthepublicsector,theshareofthissectorinthemainworktimeisonly45.5percent.Theseproportionschangelittlewhenovertimeandworkerswithoutformalemploymentareincludedaswell.Theinclusionofworkyieldingextraincome,however,changestheoverallpicture:theshareofthepublicsectorinthetotalworktimedropsto35.5percent(Table4.1).

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Table4.1.Worktimeinpublic,mixedandprivatesectors(%oftotal)

Public Mixed PrivateShareofemployment 50 15 35Totalprincipalworktime 46 15 39Totalworktime 35 11 53Source:1993HungarianHouseholdPanelSurvey;numberofemployedrespondents,2,218

EstimatingAnnualActivity

Thefirststepoftheestimatewascarriedoutonthebasisofthenumberofthoseemployed,andofthequantityofannualworktimeintheprincipaljob.Thiswasfollowedbytheestimationoftheamountofovertimeworkedbyfull-timeemployeesandoftheprincipalworktime(oddjobsorauxiliaryworkexecutedasfamilymember)oftheworkerswithoutajob(i.e.theunemployedon31March1993).Thenextstepoftheprocedurewastheestimationofthequantityofextraworkbytherespondents:thenumberofmonthsoftheperiodinvestigatedyieldingincomefromthegivenkindofwork,multipliedbythefrequencyofdoingthisworkinthegivenmonth,multipliedbythenumberofhoursworkedoneachoccasion.Thefinalresultisthenumberofhoursworked.Thisvalue,ifmultipliedbytheweightedvalueofthesample,gives,inthecaseofagivenactivity,theworktimeofthepopulationoverfifteenyears.Thesecondstepwastoestimatethequantityofextraincomeearnedbyoccupationalsector.Thiswedidbydividingtheemployedpopulationintoninedifferentemploymentcategories.Ofthese,theonlycategoriesinwhichextraincomewasprimarilyinthepublicsectorweresecondaryemployment,part-timejobsandcasualintellectualwork.Themajorityofextraincomewasinthenon-publicsector,includingagriculture.Althoughinthepresentnationalaccountsystemandcalculationof

GDPitisunusual,calculationswerealsomadefortheannualtotalworktimeinvolvedintheexchangeoflabourbetweenhouseholdsandofdomesticworkaswell.

Intheannualestimate,wehavenotbeenabletoidentifythoseinmixedenterprisesseparately;theestimateofworktimeisdividedsolelybetweenpublicandprivatesectors.Onthisbasis,thenumberofemployedweredivided50:50intheperiod,butprivate-sectoremployeesaccountedfor54percentofworktime,andwhenthehiddensectoris

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Table4.2:Worktimeinthepublicandprivatesectors,annualactivity,1993

Public PrivateNumberemployed 49.8 50.2Annualamountofworktime 46.0 54.0Totalprincipalworktime 45.7 54.3Above+annualamountofextrawork 43.344.156.7-55.9Above+agriculturalsmall-scaleproduction 32.433.167.6-66.9Above+labour-exchangebetweenhouseholds 31.732.368.3-67.7Above+non-wageddomesticwork 16.917.283.1-82.8

added,for64percentoftotalworktime.Theannualestimateindicatesthatpublic-sectoroutputwas2to3percentlessthanthevalueoftheMarchestimate.Theinclusionoftheexchangeoflabourbetweenhouseholdsinthemodelhardlyincreasestheweightoftheprivatesector.Buttakingnon-wageddomesticworkintoconsideration,theshareofthepublicsectorbyworktime,accordingtoourcalculations,wouldbejustasixthoftheoutputofthewholeeconomy(Table4.2).Itisevidentthattheproportionofthepublicsectorestimatedonthebasisofboththenumberemployedandtheamountofworktimehasconsiderablydiminishedsincethebeginningof1991.

WeightofthePublicandPrivateSectorsinIncomes

Inestimatingthedistributionofhouseholdannualincome,wehavedistinguishedtwomaintypesofincome:non-redistributiveincomefromemploymentandredistributiveincomeindependentofemploymentandprovidedbythestatesectorsuchaschildcareallowance,pensions,incomesupport,etc.(Fábián,1994).Thus,thestatenotonlyprovidesdirectincometoemployeesbutalsoprovidesincomethroughredistributivepolicies.

Incomefromthepublicandtheprivatesectorwasdefinedineach

casebythesourceofemployment.Thus,whenanentrepreneursellshisproducttothestate,theincomewillbeprivate,notpublic.Wehaveconsideredcompanieswithmixedownershippartoftheprivatesector.Theratioofpublictoprivateworkplacesin1992was46:54andin1993itwas48:52.Inthecaseofoccasionalincome(bonuses,travellingallowances,etc.)wehaveassumedthattheprincipalworkplaceisthesource.Inourcalculationswehaveproceededinthesamewayasfor

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incomefromtheprincipalworkplace.Foroddjobs,weassumemostcomesfromtheprivatesectorandhavedivideditbetweenthepublicandprivatesectorsintheratioof20to80.Theonlyexceptionwasincomefromtips,whichwehavefullyincludedintheprivateeconomy.

Thedifferencebetween1992and1993calculationsisthatinthelattercasewedidnotconsidertheso-calledotherformsofoccasionalincome.Thisdifference,however,doesnothavemuchinfluenceonthecalculatedsectorialproportions.

ComparingthedataoftheHouseholdPanelof1993andthemacro-statisticalreportoftheCentralStatisticalOffice,wefoundthattherewereabout400thousandmillionforintsmissingintheHouseholdPaneldata(Bedekovicsetal.,1994).Thisisduetoincomefromentrepreneurialprofit,small-scaleagriculturalproductionandextraworkwhichcomesmainlyfromtheprivatesector.Inordertobringthedeficientincomecategoriesclosertothemacro-statisticaldatatheyweremultipliedbyacoefficientcalculatedasthedifferencebetweenthemeasuredandtheunexpectedsizeofincome.

Duringtheperiodunderinvestigationtherehavebeenchangesinthesectorialdistributionofhouseholdincome.Incomefromtheprivatesectorhasincreased7percentinlinewiththereductionintheweightofthepublicsectorbythatamount.Atthesametimetheshareofredistributiveincome,32percent,hasnotchanged.Leavingasideredistributiveincome,thereisaboutan11percentdifferenceinannualhouseholdincomeinfavouroftheprivatesector.

FeaturesofthePrivateSector

Thegreatestexpansionoftheprivatesectortookplaceintheindustrialsectorsoftrade,building,andtheninservices.Thesearesectorsthathavebeengrowinginmarketeconomiestoo(Figure4.2).

Employmentintheprivatesectorisaboveaverageinindustryandagriculture.Itiswellbelowtheoverallnationalaverageintransport,educationandhealth,fieldswherepublicemploymentishighinmarketeconomiestoo.

TheHungarianHouseholdsurveycanprovideasocio-economicprofileofthepublic/privatesectordivisionoftheworkforceinthreebranches:industryandbuilding,agricultureandtrade(cf.Rose,1985).Womenarefounddisproportionatelyinthepublicsectorinallthreebranches,andespeciallyintrade,wherewomenareinamajorityinboth

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Figure4.2Publicandprivatesectorsbyeconomicbranch

Source:1993HungarianHouseholdPanelSurvey;numberofresondents:2,218

thepublicandprivatesectors.The3percentofgypsyrespondentsinthesamplewerealsomorelikelytobeworkinginthepublicthantheprivatesector.

Asforeducation,workersinthepublicsectorineachofthethreebranchesaremorelikelytohavehadonlyanelementaryeducationandlesslikelytohaveachievedahighereducation.Itisspeciallynoteworthythatinprivatetradethereisanunusuallyhighproportionofwell-educastedpeople.Thissuggeststhatforyoungerpeoplewithahighlevelofeducationalattainmenttradeisarefugefromunemploymentand/orasuitablestartingpointforanindependentexistenceinthelabourmarket.Thelatterassumptionisconfirmedbyabreakdownbyage.One-fourthofworkersemployedinprivatetradeareunder25,andmorethanhalfofthemareunder35.Inthebuildingindustryalso,theproportionofyoungworkersemployedintheprivatesectorishigherthanthatinthepublicsector.

Theaverageannualincomeofworkersvariesintwodimensionsbythebranchoftheeconomyandbywhetherapersonisinthepublicor

privatesector.Tradeshowsthebiggestdifferencebetweenpublicandprivatesector:thoseinprivatetradehaveanannualincomehalfagainasgreatasthoseinthepublicsector(Figure4.3).Thoseinprivateindustryonaverageearnmorethanthoseinpublicindustries,butthedifferenceisonlyafewpercent.Agricultureisthelowestpaidbranchofthe

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Figure4.3Individualincomeinpublicandprivatesectors

Source:1993HungarianHouseholdPanelSurvey;numberofrespondentsincludedhere,1,065

economy;withinthisbranch,thoseinthepublicsectorearnmorethanagriculturalistsworkingintheprivatesector.

Therearealsosubstantialdifferencesinincomewithineachbranchandwithinthepublicandprivatesector.Incomedifferencesareleastinindustry,andthisistrueofbothpublicandprivatesectors.Whilethemeanlevelofincomeislow,thereisarelativelywidebutevenspreadofincomesamongthoseworkinginboththepublicandprivatesectorsofagriculture.Intrade,theincomeofthoseinthepublicsectortendstobefairlywidelydistributedwithatendencytoover-representthosewithwagesjustbelowaverage.Intheprivatesectoroftrade,thereissomeevidenceofpolarization,asathirdareinthetopquintileofincome,butthoseinthebottomquintilearehalfagainasnumerousasthoseinthebottomquintileinothercategories.

Inaneconomyintransformation,beingintheupperhalfoftheincomedistributiondoesnotnecessarilyprovideasufficiencyofincome,andtherearemanypotentialstrategiesthatworkerscan

exploretoaugmenttheirincomes(Figure4.4).Themostfavouredwayofsecuringextraincomeisbyworkingovertime,whichisdoneby28percent.Ofcourse,thisisonlypossiblewhereworkershavestrictlydefinedlimitsfornormalworkingtime;hence,workingovertimeistwiceasfrequentinindustryandbuilding(36percent)thaninagriculture,wherethereare

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Figure4.4Strategiestoearnextraincome

Source:1993HungarianHouseholdPanelSurvey.Percentagesrefertototalinindustry,

building,agricultureandtrade;totalnumber,1,072

dailyroutinesbutnohourlylimitonthetimeintheworkingweek.Tradersinboththepublicandprivatesectorsarealsobelowaverageinworkingovertime,becausetheirjobsoftenhavenohourlylimit.Gettingasecondjobisthesecondcommonestalternativeforsupplementingincome,especiallyamongthoseinprivatetrade,andalsodisproportionatelyfoundamongthoseinpublicindustryandpublicagriculture.

Entrepreneurialactivityismostoftenfoundamongprivatetraders,andleastoftenfoundamongfarmers.Giventheconditionsofentrepreneur-shipinasocialistorpost-socialisteconomy,suchactivitiesaremorelikelytoresemblewildcapitalismthanlong-terminvestment.Thoseinindustryandbuildingareunlikelytobemakingmoneybymakingdeals,whetherinthepublicorprivatesector.Inshort,tradersintheprivatesectorarelikelytobeextroverts,lookingoutsidetheirnormalroutinestomakemoremoney,whereasthosein

industryandagriculturearemorelikelytoseekmoremoneybyworkingmorehoursattheirprincipalplaceofemployment.

Insocialisteconomieswageswereoftensupplementedbythedifferentialrewardofbenefitsinkind.Somebenefitscouldbesuppliedbythefirmtoallworkers;thisstrategywasusefultoavoidthelossoflabourtootherenterprises.Asecondalternativewastoawardbenefitsselectivelytothemostproductiveworkers.Neithercriterionisthatusedbysocial

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Figure4.5Socialservicesprovidedbyemployers

Source:1993HungarianHouseholdPanelSurvey.Percentagesrefertototalinindustry,building,

agricultureandtrade;totalnumber,953

ministries,theprovisionofbenefitsaccordingtoneed.Thecommonestbenefitismealsatwork,andamajorityofemployeesinallbranches,privateandpublic,receivesubsidizedorfreemeals(Figure4.5).Industryismostlikelytoprovidemedicalcare,buteventhenonly30percentinthisbranchoftheeconomysobenefit;thedifferencebetweenpublicandprivatesectorsisonly4percent.Intradeaneighthreceivemedicalcareandinagriculture,lessthananeighth.Inacommandeconomy,industrialenterprisescouldoffershortagegoodsasanincentivetoproduction.Inamarketeconomy,higherwagesisthenormalmethodofincreasingconsumption;thosemostlikelytobenefitbybuyinggoodsatareducedpricearetraders.

ComparisionswithOtherTransitionEconomies

ThesizeoftheprivatesectorinHungarycanbeevaluatedbycomparisonsacrossspaceaswellastime.Comparisonscanonlybeapproximate,because,whileahiddenprivatesectorhasexistedinall

formersocialistcountries,itwasoftenofficiallydeniedandrarelythesubjectofsystematicinvestigationthatcouldbegeneralizedtothenationallevel.Hungarianresearchershavebeenverymuchinthevanguardinthisfield.

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PriortothecollapseoftheSoviet-drivencommandeconomy,theprivatesectornormallyaccountedforlessthan10percentoftheofficialGDP.InCzechoslovakiain1989itwasestimatedtoaccountforonly4percent.Hungarywasthereforeexceptionalinitsprivatesectoraccountingforone-fifthoftheeconomy.InPolandtheproportionwasevenhigher,29percent,duetoagricultureremaininginprivatehandsthere.IntheformerYugoslavia,thedoctrineofworkersself-management'recognizedandoftenencouragedprivatesectoremployment(Árvay,1994).

Afterthechangeofregime,eachcountryhasputthedevelopmentoftheprivatesectorasacentralplankofeconomicpolicy,andthishasbeenapriorityorconditionofWesterneconomicaid.By1993,HungaryhadcaughtupwithPolandinhavingatleasthalfthelabourforceintheprivatesector;thetwocountrieswerealsointhevanguardinprivateemployment.IntheCzechRepubliconlyathirdofthelabourforcewasintheprivatesectorandinBulgariaone-tenth.Thelogicofmarketizationisthatprivatesectoremploymentwillexpandinalloftheformercommandeconomies,andthehiddeneconomywillincreasinglybecomerecognizedandintegratedinofficialstatistics.Butbecausethetempoofchangeisvariable,itisfairtodescribeHungaryasaleaderratherthanalaggardinadvancingfromasocialisttoamarketeconomy.

References

Árvay,János,1994.TheDimensionofPrivateandHiddenEconomies.InTheNationalEconomicWeightofPrivateandHiddenEconomies.ASurveyfortheStatePropertyAgency(ÁVÜ).Budapest:InformaticsCentreforSocialResearch(TÁRKI),May.

Árvay,JánosandVértes,András,1994.TheWeightofPrivateEconomyinGDP.InTheNationalEconomicWeightofPrivateand

HiddenEconomies.ASurveyfortheStatePropertyAgency(ÁVÜ),Budapest:InformaticsCentreforSocialResearch(TÁRKI),May.

Árvay,JánosandVértes,András,1994a.Amagángazdaság[PrivateEconomy].InR.Andorka,K.TamásandV.György,eds,Társadalmiriport1994[SocialReport1994].Budapest:InformaticsCentreforSocialResearch(TÁRKI).

Bedekovics,István,Kolosi,TamásandSzivós,Péter,1994.Jövedelmihelyzeta90-esévekelso

*felaében[IncomeSituationintheFirstHalfoftheNineties].InR.Andorka,K.TamásandV.György,eds,Társadalmiriport1994[SocialReport1994].Budapest:InformaticsCentreforSocialResearch(TÁRKI).

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Fábián,Zoltán(1994).TheWeightofthePublicandPrivateSectorsinthePopulation'sIncomes.InTheNationalEconomicWeightofPrivateandHiddenEconomies.ASurveyfortheStatePropertyAgency(ÁVÜ).Budapest:InformaticsCentreforSocialResearch(TÁRKI),May.

Rose,Richard,1995.PublicEmploymentinWesternNations.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.

Sik,Endre,1992.FromtheSecondtotheInformalEconomy.JournalofPublicPolicy,12,2,153-76.

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Chapter5ThePost-CommunistEconomicEliteGyörgyLengyel

ELITEtheorysuggeststwothesesaccountingfortherelationbetweenthetransformationoftheeliteandchangeinthepoliticalsystem.Thefirst,aweakthesis,isthatifthereplacementoftheeliteprecedestheprocessesofpoliticalchange,thiswillreducethesocialcostsofthetransformation.Thesecond,astrongthesis,assertsthatchangeoftheeliteisastructuralprerequisiteforthetransformationofthepoliticalsystem.Theprocessesofpoliticalchangebecomeirreversiblewhenafundamentalchangehastakenplaceinthemannerofrecruitment,thecompositionandtheinstitutionalconditionsoftheelite.

UsingtwoempiricalsurveysthischapterexaminestherecruitmentoftheHungarianeconomiceliteandthechangesinitscompositionbetween1990and1993.

1Thefirstsurveywasundertakeninthefirstquarterof1990,priortoparliamentaryelections.Itisarepresentativesampleof371topleaders,coveringtheeliteinthebankingsector,industrialenterprisesandtheeconomicministries.Thesecondsurvey,carriedoutinthelastquarterof1993,containsarepresentativesampleof342personsfromtheformerthreesegments,withtheadditionofseniormanagerialstaffofprivatecompaniesandmembersoftheparliamentaryeconomiccommittees.Duetothelimitedscopeofthedata,ourresearchresultsprovideinformationmainlyonthecompositionandprocessesofrecruitment;howeverthedataalsoallowustoilluminatetheimplicationsthatflowfromtheseprocesses.

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ChangesintheSocio-EconomicProfileoftheEconomicElite

Asregardstheweakthesiselitechangeasthehistoricalpreconditionforthechangeofthepoliticalsystemonecancorrectlyassumethatitwasinpartduetothestartoftheelitechangebackinthe1980sthattheHungariantransitionwasaccompaniedbysmallersocialtensionsthantheRomanian,BulgarianorYugoslaviantransformations.Thisappliesbothtotheappearanceofthealternativepoliticaleliteandtochangesintheeconomicelite.ThechangeintheHungarianeconomicelitebeganinthesecondhalfofthe1980s,beforepoliticalchange(Szalai,1989).Therateofannualcirculationrosetomorethanoneandahalftimesasmuchasithadbeenatthebeginningofthedecade.TheavailableinformationrevealsnosuchchangeoccurredintheBulgarianandtheYugoslavianelite(Kostova,1992;Lazic,1992;Bartha-Martin,1995).

OneofthedistinguishingcharacteristicsoftherecruitmentoftheHungarianelitewashighstandardsofeducationalattainmentinthe1980s(SzelényiandSzelényi,1992),anditremainedsointhe1990s.Morethannineoutoftenoftheeconomicelitehavecompletedtertiaryeducation.However,theprocesseswherebythesediplomaswereobtainedhavechangedsignificantlybetween1990and1993.In1990two-fifthsoftheeconomiceliteobtainedtheirdiplomasthrougheveningandcorrespondencecourses;by1993thisratedroppedtoaroundone-fourth.

Anothercharacteristicimportantinthelastphaseofstatesocialismpartymembershiphadlostitssignificanceby1990.Asagainstfour-fifthsoftheeconomicelitein1987,amere13percentweremembersoftheSocialistPartyin1990.However,formerSocialistPartymembersamountedtothree-fourthsoftheeconomicelitein1990.Sincethen,thepercentageofex-SocialistPartymembershasdecreased,buttheystillmakeupoverhalfofthe

economicelite.

Therearesomevariationsamongthedifferentelitegroups(Table5.1).In1990formerSocialistPartymembersweremorelikelytobefoundintheministries(81percent)andleastlikelytobefoundinbanking(64percent).By1993thishadchangedquitedramatically,withonly43percentofthoseintheministriesand44percentinbankinghavingformerlybeenSocialistPartymembers.FormerSocialistPartymembersareover-representedintheleadershipofstateandprivatizedcompaniescomparedtoothersegmentsoftheeconomicelite(BöröczandRóna-Tas,1994).Table5.1showsthatin199074percentoftheeliteinstate

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Table5.1:Socio-economiccharacteristicsoftheelite(%)1990 1993 Change

FormerSocialistPartymemberMinistry 81 43 38Parliament na 26 naBanking 64 44 20Enterprise(state) 74 70 4Enterprise(private) na 66 na(Total) (74) (56) (18)Under45yearsoldMinistry 30 48 18Parliament na 49 naBanking 59 55 4Enterprise(state) 29 29 0Enterprise(private) na 33 na(Total) (35) (39) (4)FatheraworkerMinistry 45 31 14Parliament 38 33 5Banking 33 25 8Enterprise(state) 55 38 17Enterprise(private) 42 50 8(Total) (50) (35) (15)MotheronlycompletedprimaryeducationMinistry 60 22 38Banking 48 23 25Enterprise(state) 78 43 35(Total) (68) (37) (31)FemaleMinistry 20 30 10Parliament na 5 naBanking 19 26 7Enterprise(state) 14 12 2Enterprise(private) na 9 na(Total) (17) (16) (1)

enterpriseswereformerSocialistPartymembers;thishaddeclinedbyonly4percentin1993.Therateofthosebeingformallyaffiliatedwithapoliticalpartyisonly16percent,andthemajorityofthesearemembersoftheParliament'seconomiccommitteeswhoareusuallyaffiliatedwithoneoranotherparty.

Since1989theelitehasbecomesomewhatyoungerwithleadersunder

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45increasingby4percent.Chieflyaccountingforthiswastherejuvenationoftheeconomicpoliticalstaff.Justunderone-thirdofseniorministrypersonnelwereunder45in1990.By1993thishadincreasedby18percent;asimilarproportionoftheeliteinParliamentarealsounder45.Forenterprises,therehasbeennochangeintheageprofilealthoughtheproportionoftheeliteunder45isslightlyhigherintheprivatethanthestatesector.Inotherrespects,nosignificantdifferencehasbeenfoundbetweenleadersofprivateandstatecompanies(Matonite,1994).Asforrecruitment,thedividinglineisbetweenHungarianandforeignfirms(Barthaetal.,1992).Amongbankers,whohavealwaysconstitutedtheyoungestsegmentoftheeconomicelite,thepercentageofyoungleadersdroppedfrom59to55inthethree-yearperiod.

Aconsiderablechangeoccurredintheinter-generationalmobilityoftheeconomicelite.Acontentanalysisofeconomicleaders'biographiespublishedinapopulareconomicweeklyrevealsthatsocialoriginhasincreasedinimportanceinthepublicimagination.Inthemid-1980sonlyaquarterreferredtosocialorigin;intheearly1990stwo-thirdsdid(Révai-Molnár,1995).UnliketheirYugoslavandBulgariancounterparts,priorto1989theHungarianeconomicelitewascharacterizedbyhighstatusfamilybackgrounds(Kostova,1994;Lazic,1994).Thisappearstobeconnectedtothefactthatworking-classoriginnolongerplayedasignificantformalroleincadrepoliciesorasevidenceofpartyloyalty.ArelativelysmallproportionoftheHungarianelitehavehadworkerparentsandparentswhoonlycompletedprimaryeducation,andtheirnumberscontinuetodecline.In1990halftheeconomicelitehadworking-classfathers;by1993thatpercentagewasdownto35percent.

Thequestionisrightlyraisedwhethersignificantdifferencesinsocialstatuswerenotcausedbytheinstitutionaltransformationsthathavetakenplaceinthemeantime.Donewfractionsoftheelitethe

parliamentaryandprivatespherehaveradicallynewanddifferentsocialbackgrounds?Theresearchresultsdefinitelyrefutethisassumption.AmongtheMPsinvolvedintheeconomiccommittees,thereisahigherproportionofthosewithlower-statusparentsthanamongbankandministryleaders,whiletheleadersofprivatefirmsaremorelikelytobefromparentsoflowerstatusthanleadersofstateenterprises.

Whileearliersome60percentofseniorministryofficialsandoverthree-quartersofcompanydirectorshadmotherswhoseeducationdidnotexceedprimarylevel,theirnumbershavebeenreducedtoaround20percentand40percentrespectively.Thisfactismorecloselyconnectedtoacohorteffect,inasmuchasamongyoungerleadersparentalqualifi-

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Table5.2:Oldandnewleadersintheeconomicelite(%)1990 1993

Risentoposition RisentopositionBefore1988

198890Before1990

1990-3

EconomicsectorsMinistries 31 69 11 89Parliament 5 95Banks 31 69 13 87Enterprises 57 43 na naEnterprises(state) na na 30 70Enterprises(private) na na 30 70(Total) (45) (55) (21) (79)Socio-economiccharacteristicsLeadersageunder45 22 46 24 43Eveningorcorrespondenceschool

39 40 27 27

Havingsecondaryeducation 3 6 6 4Workingclassorigin 55 45 45 30Mothersworkingashousewives

60 42 47 44

FormerSocialistPartymembers

73 76 76 50

cationsarenecessarilydifferentbecauseofthechangedhistoricalpatternsofeducation.Itcontinuedtoholdtrue,however,thattheHungarianeconomiceliteweremorelikelytocomefromthestrataofhigherstatusfamiliesthanleadersoftheBulgarianandYugoslavianeconomy.TherecruitmentoftheHungarianeconomicelitethusdivergedrelativelyearlyfromthecoursedeterminedbyEastEuropeancadrepolicyandbegantoapproachtheinternationalinter-generationalmobilitypatterninwhichthemajorityoftheelitecomefromupperandupper-middlestratafamilies.

Intermsofgender,overallthereappearstohavebeennochangeintheproportionofwomenamongtheeconomicelite.Table5.2showsthatinboth1990and1993theyaccountedforaroundone-sixthoftheeconomicelite.However,theunchangedaverageconcealseffectsdictatedbytheinstitutionalstructure(Nagy,1993).Therehasbeenanincreaseintherepresentationofwomenincertainsegmentsoftheelite,risingfrom20to30percentamongheadsofministrydepartmentsandfrom19to26percentamongbankers.Inthenewlyemergingsegments,suchastheeconomiccommitteesofParliamentandprivateenterprise,thenumberofwomenisconspicuouslylow,at5and9percentrespectively.Therehasalsobeenadropinthenumberofwomendirectingstateenterprises.Thetendencythatistakingshapesuggeststhatinlargeadministrative

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organizations,inwhichtherateoffemalelabourishighanyway,womengetanincreasingshareinmanagement,whileintheseniormanageriallevelsofeconomicorganizationsandinpoliticaldecision-makingthereisnoticeablesocialdiscriminationagainstwomen.

ReplacementoftheEconomicElite

Didthereplacementoftheeconomicelitecontinueintheperiodoftransition?Yes;Table5.3showsthatfour-fifthsoftheeconomicelitehaverisentotheirpostssince.1990andthenumbersareevenhigherintheministries,banksandtheeconomiccommitteesofParliament.Thecorrespondingnumberamongcompanyleadersis70percent.Thishighrateofturnoverdatesfromtheendofthe1980s.Thesurveyofearly1990showedthatjustoverhalfoftheeconomicelitehadbeeninofficefornolongerthanthreeyearsatthattime,andthereweredifferencesbetweensectors.Newholdersoftoppositionsnumberedbelowtheaverageamongcompanyleadersandwayabovetheaverageinministriesandbanks.Thesehighfluctuationrateswerepossiblyattributabletothegovernment'sresponsetorecessioninthecaseofeconomicpositionsandtotheemergenceofatwo-tierbankingsystemwithrespecttobankers.

Studyingtheannualfluctuationrateor,moreprecisely,theproportionofleadersappointedinthepastyear,onefindsthattheirratesare38and36percentrespectively,oneandahalftimeshigherthanwasthecaseinthefirsthalfofthe1980s.Thefluctuationrateofministryandbankmanagersfarexceededtherateofcompanyleadersinboth1990and1993.In1993therewasaslightdropof9percentinnewlyappointedleadersinministriesandaslightriseinstatecompaniesfrom27to34percent.Newcomerstotheechelonofprivatefirmshadahigherrateat39percent,relatedtotheexpansionoftheprivatesphere.

Table5.3:Continuity:previousjobinthesamesector(%)

1990 1993 ChangeMinistry 79 58 21Parliament na 9 naBank 46 59 13Enterprise(state) 80 68 12Enterprise(private) na 42 na(Total) (73) (54) (19)

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Intheeconomicelite,ifonecomparesthesocio-economicbackgroundsofthesub-groupappointedbefore1990withthatappointedsince1990,onecandetectafewspecificfeatures.Amongnewcomers,thenumbersofyoungerleadersandthosecomingfromwhite-collarparentsareconsiderablyhigher.Also,thereisasignificantdropfromthree-fourthstoaround50percentamongformerSocialistPartymembers.Moredetailedbreakdownsrevealthatthemajorityoftheold-timersinthetopechelonwerealsoappointedtotheirpostsinthelate1980s.

Furthermore,themajorityoftheeconomicelitehavehadcontinuousadministrativecareers:73percentoftheelitehadhadtheirpreviousjobinthesamesectorin1990(Table5.3).Seventy-ninepercentoftheministerialleadersand46percentofbankmanagersrosewithintheirownsectors,whilemostcompanyleadersascendedinsidetheirownfirms(80percent).Thedeclineinintra-sectormobilitybetween1990and1993wasmainlyduetothecontinuouscareerpatternsbeingbelowaverageintheeconomiccommitteesofmembersofParliamentandamongprivatefirmleaders.Thoughtherepresentationofsuchcareerpatternshasdecreasedamongtheseniorministerialstaffandcompanyleaders,itstillremainedpredominantandshowedariseinthestabilizingbankingsphere;newlyappointedleadersinthesesectorsdisplayednomarkedlydifferenttraits.

ElitePerspectivesonSocialandEconomicConditions

Asfarasonecaninferfromtheavailabledata,noimportantchangeoccurredintheelite'sopinionaboutthesocial-economicconditionsandtheirpersonalprospects.Earlyworkshowedthattheopinionsoftheleaderssharplydifferedfromthatoftheemployees,andithadnotchangedby1993.Thereisadifferencebetweentheeconomiceliteandtheadultpopulationingeneralconcerningself-evaluationandsocialcontent.Themembersoftheeconomicelitearefarmore

satisfiedwiththeircareers,livingstandardandfutureprospectsthantheaverage.Comparingtheopinionsoftheelitein1990to1993,itisstrikingthatmembersofthenewelitearemoresatisfiedthantheirpredecessorsinnearlyeveryaspectoflife.Table5.4showsthatdissatisfactiondeclinedby4percentforfamilyrelationsand37percentforfutureprospects.Themajorityweresatisfiedwiththeirwork,housing,socialstatusandfamilyrelationsin1990andby1993hadbecomeevenmoresatisfied.

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Table5.4:Dissatisfactionwithintheeconomicelite(%)1990 1993 Change

Country'ssocio-economiplight 91 75 16Children'soutlook 59 25 34Futureprospects 51 14 37Levelofeducation 46 16 30Standardofliving 39 11 28Socialstatus 27 5 22Health 25 11 14Life-coursesofar 21 3 18Housing 19 15 4Work 16 6 10Interpersonalrelations 16 5 11Familyrelations 10 6 4

Theiruncertaintydecreased,buttheystillremaineddissatisfiedwiththecountry'seconomicperspectives.

Membersoftheelitejudgetheirownmaterialprospectsmorefavourably,buttheyaremorepessimisticregardingthegeneralpopulation.Table5.5indicatesthatbetween1990and1993theproportionoftheelitewhothinkthattheirfamilies'financialstandingwilldeterioratedropsby26percent,whereastheproportionwhothinkthatthepopulation'sfinancialstandingwilldeteriorateincreasesby10percent.

Afeelingofhelplessness,ill-luck,theconvictionthatonecanhardlylessenone'sburdens,whichcharacterizedabouthalfthepopulation,weretypicaloflessthanone-fifthoftheeconomicelite.Some30percentofthepopulationwereworriedabouttheirhealth,haveheadaches,constantnervousness,whilethecorrespondingrateamongtheeconomicleadersisone-fifth.ExhaustionanddepressionarementionedmoreoftenbytheeconomicelitethantheHungarianaverage,whichitselfishighin

Table5.5:Eliteattitudestowardsfinancialprospects(%)Inthenextyearsthefinaincialstandingof:

Family Population1990 1993 1990 1993

Deterioratesharply 4 2 10 13Deteriorate 44 20 47 54Notchange 28 57 20 23Improve 22 21 23 10Improvemassively 2 __ __ __

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Table5.6:Entrepreneurs,populationandeconomicandeconomicelitefeelings(%answeringyes)

EntrepeneursaAdultpopulationb

Elite

Ioftenfeelexhausted,depressed 62 57 61ImostlyfeelIhavenoluck 38 53 19Iamalwaysrestless,nervous 33 31 20Thosewhowanttogetonmustbreaksomerules

64 78 49

aSource:VenturersandEntreprenurs,BKE-KSH,1993(N=1,473)bSource:HouseholdPanelSurvey,BKE-TÁRKI,1993(N=3,898)

comparisontointernationallevels.Around60percentofentrepreneurs,theeliteandtheadultpopulationreportthattheyoftenfeelexhaustedanddepressed(Table5.6).

Specialmentionmustbemadeoftheviolationofnorms,whichwithreservationcanbeusedasanindicatorofananomaloussocialstate.Overthree-quartersoftheadultpopulationregardeditasatruismthatanyonewhowishestogetonisforcedtobreachcertainrules.Thiscompareswithabouthalfoftheeconomicelitewhofoundthisstatementtrue.InHungariansocietyagreatmajorityofthepopulationandhalftheeconomicleadersregardthebreakingofnormsasprevalentandaconditionofsuccess.Whentheviolationofnormsisacceptedasgenerallyprevalentandentailingnosanctions,peoplemaysometimesadjusttheirbehaviouraccordingly.

Beneaththisphenomenon,onecanalsodetectstrategiesofsuccesswhichevadedlegalandmoralrules,sincetheeconomiceliteareabletoadaptthemselvestotherequirementsofinstitutionalbargainingandmarketnetworksalike.Theroleoftheformerseemstobereinforced,amongothers,bytheparadoxicalfeatureofcontractualdisciplineconditioningmarketrelationsamongcompanies.Onlyaninsignificant

fraction,7percent,notedthattheywereunabletopaytheirtradingpartners,whereas40percentcomplainedthattheirpartnerswereinarrearswithpayment.Thedifferenceinmagnitudeischieflyduetothefactthatindebtedcompaniesareconcentratedinthesectoroflargeenterpriseswhichareinfavourablepositionstobargain.

Therewasonepointaboutwhichtheopinionoftheeconomicelitehaschangedthedifferencebetweenestimatedandjustincome(Tóth,1992).Comparedtothemajorityofthepublic,whattheHungarianeconomicelite(Czirjáketal.,1994)regardedasacceptablewasnotthecutbackofleaders'incomeinabsolutetermsbutthemoderationoftherelative

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Table5.7:Incomeestimatedanddeemedjust(forints)(1990) (1993)

estimated just estimated justTypist 100 100 100 100Skilledworker 142 160 124 150Entrepreneur 618 538 611 494Generaldirector 807 692 732 620Minister 683 760 627 725

incomeadvantagesofentrepreneursandcompanyleaders.Thismightatthesametimehaveredressedthefactthattheincomeofgeneraldirectorswasputbeforethatofministers.Thistendencyhelditsgroundintheearly1990s.Whatdidchangeafterthedevelopmentofatransitionaleconomywasthattheeconomiceliteconsideredthedifferencebetweentheirownincomeandtheearningsoftheemployeessmallerthaninthelatephaseoftheplannedeconomy.Inconnectionwiththisandincreasingsocialtensions,theeliteseemsinclinedtomoderateevenjustifiableincomedifferences(seeTable5.7).Sociologicalsurveysonincomes,however,donotsupportthisassumption(Andorkaetal.,1994),nordoesthepublicseedevelopmentsinthisway(Csepelietal.,1992).

Conclusion

Whatconclusioncanthenbedrawnconcerningthestrongthesisoftheinterrelationofelitechangeandregimechange?Researchsuggeststhatthepersonnelcompositionoftheelitehadchangedfullybytheearly1990s,withchangesalreadybeguninthelate1980s.Thelogicofeliteselectionwasalsomodified.Themostnoteworthychangebroughtaboutthedemotionoftheformalandcontextualaspectsofpartyaffiliation,andpossiblystrengthenedpersonalandcorporateloyalty.NewinstitutionalconditionsemergedastheeconomiccommitteesofParliamentnowseemtohaverealeconomic

politicalcompetenciesandprivatecompaniesemergeasanindependentsector.

Itmustbekeptinmindatthesametimethatthesuperiorityofstateenterprisesandredistributiveinstitutionsdidnotceaseinthetransitionaleconomyandvariousformsofstateinfluencesurvived,entailingthepreservationofconcomitantmanagerialbehaviour.Ithasalsotoberealizedthatalthoughthecompositionoftheeconomicelitechanged

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fundamentally,thesocialbasisofrecruitmentremainedrelativelyunchangedandnarrowinregardtocareerpatterns,whileitnarrowedinrespectofinter-generationalmobility,socialcomposition,attitudesandinstitutionalcircumstancesoftheeconomicelite,containingoldfeaturesaswell.Thecautiousconclusionisthatthemodificationoftheeconomiceliteforeshadowsthepossibilitythatthereplacementoftheelitemightbethestructuralpreconditionforachangeoftheoverallsystem,butintheearly1990sitdidnotreachalevelthatwouldensuretheirreversibilityofthetransformationprocess.

Note

1ThefirstsurveywasconductedbyTamásRozgonyiandtheauthorwithfundingsupportfromtheOTKA.Thesecondone,conductedbytheauthorwassupportedbytheOTKAandtheCentralEuropeanUniversityResearchSupportScheme.PálJuhász,DobrinkaKostova,MladenLazicandErzsébetSzalaiassistedinthepreparatoryaspectsofthisresearch.

References

Andorka,R.,Headey,B.andKrause,P.,1994.Agazdaságiésapolitikaikövetelményekszerepearendszerváltozásban:MagyarországésKelet-Németország19901994[TheRoleofEconomicandPoliticalImperativesinSystemTransformation:HungaryandEastGermany19901994].SzociológiaSzemle,4.

Bartha,A.,Gombás,É.andHajdú,G.,1992.Aformahatalma[ThePoweroftheForm].Figyelo

*,jún.25.31.

Bartha,A.andMartin,J.,1995.Attitudok*metamorfózisa.Amagyar,abolgár,aszerbésahorvátgazdaságielitaposztkommunista

rendszerátalakulásküszöbén[MetamorphosisofAttitudes.TheHungarian,Bulgarian,SerbandCroatEconomicElitesattheThresholdsofthePost-CommunistTransformation].Ms.

Böröcz,J.andRóna-Tas,Á.,1994.FormationoftheNewEconomicElites.Ms.Czirják,I.,Delhey,J.,Huitema,V.andSzoke*,A.,1993.AttitudestowardsIncomeInequality,aComparisonBetweentheNetherlands,GermanyandHungary.InJ.L.Peschar,ed.,SocialStratificationinComparativePerspective.PapersfromaTEMPUSseminar,Groningen.

Csepeli,Gy.,Neményi,M.andÖrkény,A.,1992.Jovotlen*értékeink[OurFuturelessValues].InR.Andorka,T.KolosiandGy.Vukovich,szerk.,Társadalmiriport1992[SocialReport1992],334-58.

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Kostova,D.,1992.Theeconomicleadersinpost-totalitariansociety:thecaseofBulgaria.InG.Lengyel,C.OffeandJ.Tholen,eds,EconomicInstitutions,ActorsandAttitudes:East-CentralEuropeinTransition.CentreforSocialPolicyResearch,Bremen,UniversityofBremen181-93.

Kostova,D.,1994.TheEconomicEliteinBulgariaAdaptationandChange.Ms.

Lazic,M.,1992.PrisonersoftheCommandEconomy:TheManagerialStratumandtheDisintegrationofactuallyexistingsocialism.InG.Lengyel,C.OffeandJ.Tholen,eds,EconomicInstitutions,ActorsandAttitudes:East-CentralEuropeinTransition.CentreforSocialPolicyResearch,UniversityofBremen,169-80.

Lazic,M.,1994.TransformationoftheEconomicEliteMs.

Lengyel,Gy.,Offe,C.andTholen,J.,eds,1992.EconomicInstitutions,ActorsandAttitudes:East-CentralEuropeinTransition.CentreforSocialPolicyResearch,UniversityofBremen.

Matonite,I.,1994.EastEuropeanTransformationsandtheEconomicElite:DiversificationoftheTopManagerialStratuminHungary.M.A.Thesis,CentralEuropeanUniversity,Budapest.

Nagy,B.,1993.Noivezetok

*férfiakraszabottszerepben[FemaleLeadersintheRolesofMen].Társadalomésgazdaság,1.sz.,22-9.

Révai,E.andMolnár,L.,1995.Gazdaságielita80-asévekközepénésarendszerváltásbantartalomelemzés[EconomicEliteinthemid-1980sandaContentAnalysisoftheSystemicChange].Ms.

Szalai,E.,1989.Azújelit[TheNewElite].Beszelo*.27.

Szelényi,I.andSzelényi,Sz.,1992.AtársadalmiszerkezetváltozásaiKözép-Európábanaposzt-kommunizmusbavalóátmenetkorszakában[ChangestotheSocialStructureinCentralEuropeinthePeriodofTransitiontoPost-Communism].InI.Szelényi,Aposzt-kommunistaátmenettársadalmikonfliktusai[SocialConflictsofPost-CommunistTransition].HungarianAcademyofScience,Budapest,149-55.

Tóth,I.Gy,1992.AttitudestowardsJustEarningsDifferentialsinEightCountries.unpublishedMs.

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Chapter6TheMiddleStrataInTransformation

1

ZoltánFábián

MiddleClassesandMiddleStrata:PossibleDefinitions

ASOCIOLOGICALdefinitionofthemiddleclass(es)raisesanumberoftheoreticalandempiricalproblems.Forexample,classandstratificationtheoriesapproachtheirobjectfromdifferentperspectives.Classtheoriestrytodescribethemaingroupsofsocietyonthebasisoftheirfunctionalprocesses.AccordingtoErikOlinWright,formulatoroftheneo-Marxistclassparadigm,theoperationofmodernbourgeoissocietiesisbasedoncomplexmechanismsofexploitation.WrightandMartin(1987)mentionthreemechanismsbasedonownershiprelations,controloforganizationsandownershipofskills.Thefirstrelationdistinguishesbetweengroupswithandwithoutpossessions,i.e.thebourgeoisieandtheworkers.Thesecondallowstheidentificationofthegroupthatcontrolsorganizations,i.e.managers,asopposedtothoseundercontrol,namelyemployees.Skillassetsarepossessedbyexperts,asagainstthosewholackthem.Table6.1summarizestheschemaofclassesdefinedbyproductionrelations.

Table6.1:StructuralrelationsandtheschemaofclassesTypeofexploitation Apppropriationof

surplusProductionrelations

Capitalassets:ownershipofmeansofproduction

Profit Capital-labour

Controloforganizationassets

Loyaltydividend(wagetrajectories)

Manager-worker

Skillassets Rentcomponentofthewage

Expert-nonexpert

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Thisgivesrisetothequestion:wheredoweplacethemiddleclasses?TheanswergivenbyWrightandMartinisasfollows:Withinthiscomplexmatrixofrelations,certainpositionsaresimultaneouslyexploitingalongonedimensionofproductionrelationsandexploitedalonganotherThesesimultaneousexploiting/exploitedpositionscorrespondtowhatincommonlanguageisgenerallycalledthemiddleclass(1987:7).Inotherwords,Wrightdefinesthemiddleclassesbytheircontradictoryclassposition.Whoeverappearsasexploiteralongonedimensionofthestructuralrelationsofsocietywhileappearingasexploitedalonganotherbelongstothemiddleclass(es).Insociologicaljargonitiscustomarytocallthebourgeoisieold,andtheclassesexploitingalongthetwootherdimensionsnewmiddleclass(forexample,Kriesi,1989).Thedistinctionisbasedonmonopolycapitalismappearingduringthetwentiethcenturytocreatetheconditionsforthedominanceofthenewmiddleclass,while,simultaneously,theoldmiddleclassrecedesintothebackground.

InhisclassicessayonsocialpsychologypublishedduringtheSecondWorldWar,ErichFromm(1941)explainedtherisetopowerofNazismbytheimpairmentoftheeconomicposition,andtheresultantsocio-psychologicalsituationoftheGermanoldmiddleclass.Hisreasoningalsobringsthereader'sattentiontotherelationshipbetweenthesocialpositionofthemiddlestrataandpoliticalstability(Fábián,1994a).InHungaryandanumberofotherformerstatesocialistcountriesthecompleteeliminationoftheoldmiddleclasswasaccomplishedbyFascism,andthenbytheCommunistgovernmentsthatcameintopoweraftertheSecondWorldWar.Withthecollapseofthestatesocialistsystems,astrangesituationarose.ThereorganizationandrecreationofthemiddleclasscalledoldinWesternsociologywasincorporatedintopoliticalagendas.Duringtheinitialstagesofthesystemtransformation,thecombinationofprivatizationwithcompensationforthatformerproperty-owningmiddleclasswas

oneofthemostimportantobjectivesoftheHungarianconservativecoalitiongovernments.Atthesametime,thetransformationdidnotleavetheold-newemployeemiddleclassuntouchedsincethetraumaticappearanceofmassunemploymentaffectednotonlyunskilledworkersbutalsoskilledworkersandwhite-collaremployeestoanaboveaveragedegree.

Othersclaimthatthecharacteristicgroupsofconsumersocietiesaretobeidentifiednotintermsofproductionrelationsbutintermsofstylesofconsumption.Afterall,consumptiononthelevelofthewholeofsocietynotonlyhomogenizesbutalsodifferentiatessociety.Inconsumer

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societies,classaffiliationisdeterminednotbythevolumebutbythecultureofconsumption.Howevermuchmoneysomeonehas,spendingitwithoutacertaindegreeoftastebetraysaffiliationtoalowerclass.Asaresult,classboundariescanonlybeestablishedonthebasisofaninvestigationofthegivensociety'spatternsofconsumptionandtheirculturalsignificance.Intermsoftheirstylesofconsumption,themembersofthemiddleclasstrytoalignthemselveswiththoseabovethemonthesocialladder,whileendeavouringtoseparatethemselvesfromtheclassesbelow.Itisnotonlythesociologicaltrendsofinterpretativeorqualitativesociology(forexample,Fussele,1987)thatutilizesuchanapproach.Itsadherentscanalsobefoundwithinempiricalquantitativesociology,usuallyundertheheadingoflifestyle(forexample,Soebel,1981).

Researchonsocialstratificationstudiesthehierarchicalarticulationofsociallyrelevantdifferencesamongindividualsthatiscalledthesystemofinequalities.Agroupofindividualsisconsideredtoconstituteasocialstratumiftheyoccupytypicallysimilarpositionsalongthedifferentdimensionsofthesystemofinequalities.Naturally,decidingwhichdifferencestoconsiderimportantindetermininginequalitypresentscertainproblems,assystemsofsocialinequalityaredeterminedhistoricallyanddifferbetweensocietiesandepochs.However,sociologicalresearchhasidentifiedsomeregularitiesthataregenerallyapplicabletoindustrializedsocieties.Amongthemistheclosesimilarityoftheprestige-distributionofoccupations(Treiman,1977),orthespontaneousco-varianceofsocialadvantagesanddisadvantages(Lenski,1954).Mostoften,threerelativelyeasilymeasurablevariablesareusedforthemeasurementofsocialstatusincome,levelofeducationandprestigeofoccupation.However,manyarguethatitistheoreticallymoreappropriatetobringalargersectionofthesystemofsocialinequalitiesintotheperspectiveofscientificresearch(Kolosi,1984,1987a).

Twopointsareveryimportanthere.First,fromtheperspectiveofsocialstratificationresearch,thenumberofwaysthemiddlestratamaybedefinedisthesameasthenumberofimportantdimensionsofinequalityweexamine.Wemaydiscussthemiddlestrataaccordingtoincome,assets,levelofeducation,consumption,culturalactivity,power,etc.OursecondimportantpointisconnectedwithwhatLenski(1954)calledstatuscrystallization,orstatusconsistency.Theco-occurrenceofadvantagesanddisadvantagesisvariablenotonlyfromtheperspectiveofsocialhistorybutalsoacrossindividualsandsocialgroups,withtheresultthatthedegreeofstatuscrystallizationdiffersbythelevelofstrati-

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fication.Differencesalongvariousdimensionsofstatus,suchasincome,levelofeducation,etc.aretermedstatusinconsistency.Lenskidefinedtheconceptasthehorizontaldimensionofstratification.WernerLandecker's(1987)hypothesisconcerningtherelationbetweenstatusinconsistencyandsocialhierarchywassummedupbyKolosi(1987b)asfollows:theextensivehorizontalandverticaldifferentiationofasocietyandrapidsocialchangebothdecreasethedegreeofstatuscrystallisation,andtheextremesofstratificationnecessarilyexperienceagreaterdegreeofcrystallisationthanthemiddlestrata(italicsadded).Thisisequivalenttotheclaimthatthelevelofstatusinconsistencyishigherinthemiddlestrata.

2ForthesakeofdrawingaparallelwemayreferbacktoWright'sobservationconcerningthecontradictorypositionofthemiddleclass.

Researchersstudyingthemiddlegroupsofsocietymayavailthemselvesofanumberofpossibleterminologies.Thereforewefinditexpedientforthereductionofterminologicalconfusiontobreakawayfromthelogicofeverydaylanguage,andtousethetermmiddleclass,alongwithclassingeneral,intheneo-Marxistandneo-Weberiansense.Thewidelyusedeverydayconceptofthemiddleclassismuchmorelikelytobebasedonanimplicitstratificationtheory.Itisourimpressionthatineverydaycommunication,amiddle-classpositionistakentorefertopeopleoccupyingamiddlepositioninsomedimensionofhierarchicalinequalities.However,whensociologistsspeakinthatsense,theyusuallyusetheexpressionmiddlestrata.

EmbourgeoisementandMiddleStrata

Fromtheperspectiveofthestabilityofmodernbourgeoissocietyand

itsmulti-partyparliamentarydemocraticpoliticalstructure,thedestinyofeconomicallyrelativelyindependentautonomousmiddlestrataisofdecisiveimportance.Historically,thedevelopmentoftheorganizationalsystemofbourgeoisdemocraciesandtheunfoldingofthecapitalistsystemofproductionhasbeenhandinhandwiththeeconomicandpoliticalemancipationofthemiddlestrata.Theconceptsofembourgeoisementandmiddle-classformationarenotsociologicallyidentical.Theconceptofbourgeoisieinvolvesarelativeeconomicautonomyandindependenceandaparticularformoflifeandmentality.3

TheempiricalseparationofthemiddleclassandthebourgeoisieiswelldemonstratedbythestructureofHungariansocietybetweenthetwo

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WorldWars,whichFerencErdei(1980)calledadoublesocialstructure.Itisespeciallyapparentintheseparationofthegentrysectionofthemiddleclass,thatistheso-calledChristian-nationalisticmiddleclass,fromthebourgeoismiddleclass,whichwasrecruitedfromtheethnicallynon-Hungarianpopulation,forexampleGermansandJews.Theformergroupischaracterizedbyitseconomicandpoliticaldependenceonthestateandadministrativesectorandcorrespondingpoliticalinfluence,basedonfeudaloriginandstatusintheWeberiansense.Thecharacteristicfeatureofthebourgeoissectionwasitsownershipofmarketableassets,propertyandskills.Approachingthepresent,themiddle-classformationoftheKádárera,whichwasmadepossiblelargelybythedevelopmentofthesocalledsecondeconomyconnectedtomarketreform,alsopromotedtheprocessofembourgeoisement.Allofthat,withthewidespreaddevelopmentofenterpriseskillsandthegradualstrengtheningofcivilsociety,waspartofthesocialfoundationofthesystemtransformation.

TheproblemofembourgeoisementisoneofthemostcontentiousandsensitivetopicsinHungariansociology,andoftenmakesanappearanceonpartyagendasandinpoliticalslogans.Manyrefrainfromevenusingthetermbecausetheyfeelitisanoverused,elasticconcept,orbecausetheyfinditacceptableonlyinconnectionwithadeterminateperiodofsocialhistory,theendoftheeighteenthandthefirsthalfofthenineteenthcentury.However,embourgeoisementisatermthatsociologycannotsurrendertohistorians,asitaffordsagoodgraspofthemodernizationofthestructureofsociety,thetransformationofthesocietybasedonprivilegeslinkedtostatuscharacteristics,suchasethnicityandpartymembership,toacapitalistclasssociety.

InHungary,theeconomicallyindependentmiddlestratathatmayprovidethebasisfortheformationofautonomousmiddleclassesare

nowbeingcreated.Thereareanumberofpossiblescenariosforthecompositionandsociologicalprofileofthemiddleclass.Oneofthemainaimsoftheprivatizationstrategyformulatedbythefirstdemocraticallyelectedpost-CommunistgovernmentsinHungarywasthecreationofanationalproperty-owningbourgeoisiebythereorganizationandcompensationoftheformerproperty-owningmiddleclass.Anotherpolicyaimedatthemiddlestratashowsapreferencefortheinterestsoftheemployeemiddlestratumduringthedeconstructionofstateownershipbybringinginforeigncapital.Thiscreateslargeprivatizedcompaniesthatmodernizethedeficit-producingpublicsectorbyimprovingproductivityandwhichactascreatorsofemployment.Thepoliticalrisksofthelatterstrategy

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atemporaryincreaseinunemployment,xenophobia,etc.areobvious.InHungarytheabovetwoscenariosarebeingrealizedtogether.

TheExpansionofthePrivateSector

Ownersandentrepreneurs:rebirthoftheoldmiddleclass

ThedistinguishingfeatureofKádár'ssoftdictatorship(theso-calledgoulashCommunism)wasthatitallowedawidestrataofsocietytomaintainorimprovetheirstandardoflivingbyactivitiesintheso-calledsecondeconomy.Thesocio-structuralroleofthesecondeconomywasrecognizedbyHungariansociologistsrelativelyearly.Alongwiththestructuredefinedbythestate-redistributiveeconomy,theirmodelsalsotookaccountoftheroleofthesecondeconomy,theactualmarketconditions(SzelényiandManchin,1986;Kolosi,1987a).Kolosi(1987:151)foundthatduringthefirsthalfofthe1980s,three-quartersoftheactivepopulationparticipatedinthesecondeconomybyundertakingsomesortofincome-generatingactivityoutsidethestatesector.Followingthesystemtransformation,thevariousformsofsecondeconomyactivities,especiallysmall-scaleagriculturalproductionforthemarketandcasualwork,havedeclinedinimportance.Examininghouseholdsengagedinsmall-scaleagriculturalproduction,Spéder(1994:80)reportedthatthepercentageofthoseproducingforthemarketaswellwas27.5percentin1987.Thatfiguredecreasedto14.5percentby1992,whiletheproportionofhouseholdsproducingonlyfortheirownconsumptionincreased.Thetendencyprobablyreflectsnotonlytheappearanceofmassunemploymentandthecrisisofagricultureintransformation,butalsoaproportionofthoseonceengagedinthesecondeconomyhavenowenteredtheprivatesectorastheirprimaryoccupation.Thathypothesisissupportedbyanumberofindicatorsthatshowtheexpansionoftheprivatesectorattheexpenseofthepublicsector.ThesubjectisgivenadetailedtreatmentbyTamásKolosiandEndreSik

inChapter4inthisvolume,andinthestudyofthedevelopmentoftheprivatesectorbyTÁRKIandEconomicResearchLtd.(TÁRKIandGKI,1994).Thevariousapproachesinthisvolumethoughpreparedusingverydifferentmethodologiesandresearchhypotheseshaveallledtosimilarconclusions.TheproportionoftheprivatesectorwithintheHungarianeconomywasaround60percentin1993.TheproportionoftheHungarianandforeignprivatesectorwithintheproductionoftheGDP

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Figure6.1Proportionofentrepreneursintheeconomicallyactivepopulation,198293

Sources:aKolosiandRóbert,1991:6;bKolosietal.,1993:13

wasestimatedbyJánosÁrvayandAndrásVértesat56to63percent.TamásKolosiandEndreSikestimatedthattwo-thirdsofthetotalworkinghourswerespentintheprivatesector.Iestimatedtheproportionofprivate-sectorincomeinthetotalincomeofhouseholdsat45percent.Ifweexcludefromconsiderationincomeofaredistributivetype,towhichthedistinctionofprivateandpublicsectorsisnotapplicable,thatproportionrisesto66percent.

Fromtheperspectiveofthischapter,indicatorsattestingtotherebirthoftheoldmiddleclassareparticularlyimportant.Thedominanttendencyisthestrengtheningofentrepreneurialinclination.In1988,25percentofsubjectssaidtheywouldliketobeentrepreneurs;twoyearslaterthefigurehadincreasedto44percent.Thegapbetweenaspirationsandactualbehaviourislarge,but,significantly,thenumberofpeopleactuallystartingabusiness

4alsodoubledbetween1989and1993asisshownbyFigure6.1.

ThepercentageofHungarianentrepreneurshadbecomeverysimilartothecorrespondingfigureinWesternEuropeandotherdevelopedcountriesby1993.Thatistrueevenifwetakeintoaccountthatwehavelumpedtogetherthetwolargegroupsofproprietorybourgeoisie:

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employersandtheself-employedpettybourgeoisie.Theproportionoftheformergroupisaround1to3percentindevelopedcountries.Forexample,inFinlandtheproportionofentrepreneursemployingmorethantenpeoplewas1percent(BlomandKivinen,1989:20).KolosiandSik(1991)providesomeinformationconcerningtheinternaldivisionsofentrepreneurs.In1992,74percentofentrepreneurswereself-employed,19percentwereactiveownersofcompanies(managingalimitedcompanytheypartiallyowned)and7percentwerehelpingfamilymembersorwerepensioner-entrepreneurs.

SinceFigure6.1onlycontainspeoplewhoreportthemselvesasindependententrepreneursintheirprimaryoccupation,thenumberinvolvedinsomesortofentrepreneurialactivityisprobablylarger.In1991,forinstance,TÁRKIputthefollowingquestiontosubjects:Moreandmorepeoplethesedaysworkforcompaniesnotownedbythestate.Haveyou,orsomeoneinyourfamily,triedanyofthefollowing?Thequestionwasfollowedbyalistofvariousformsofenterprise.Ofthesubjectsandtheirhousehold,16.9percenthadtriedsomeformofenterprise.Inmostcasesthatmeantindependentproductionorserviceenterprise,orparticipationinalimitedcompany.

In1992,thelargestproportionofentrepreneurs,35percent,wereworkinginserviceindustries,24percentwereinretail,22inindustryand10percentinagriculture.Theremaining9percentwerefreelancenon-manuals(KolosiandSik,1992:10).Theproportionofindependententrepreneursisgreatestinthosesectorsoftheeconomywhichwereearliersurrenderedtothesecondeconomybytheredistributivesystem.

Employeesandthedevelopmentoftheprivateeconomy

Theexpansionoftheprivatesectorisconsiderableintermsofjobsaswell.In1992,nationally35.8percentofemployeeswereworkingintheprivatesector(seeTable6.2),andinBudapest46percent.

Examiningtheprivatesectorin1992thegreatestdifferencebetweennationalandBudapestfiguresisinthecaseofprivatelyownedcompanies.Theproportionofpeopleemployedinthatcategorywasover25percentinBudapest.Itisgenerallythecasethattheexpansionoftheprivatesectorisfastestinthecapital.There,theproportionofthoseemployedbycompaniesinforeignownershipisalsogreaterthanthenationalaverage.

Whenevaluatingtherateofincrease,however,itmustbetakenintoaccountthattheexpansionoftheprivatesectorhassofarbeendynamiconlyamongsmallandmediumcompanies,whileitremainedveryslow

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Table6.2:Thedistributionofearnersbythetypeofworkplace

1992 1993PublicsectorPubliclyfinancedinstitutions 22.1 16.1Publiccorporations 23.2 19.8Localgovernmentcompanies 5.2 5.9Traditionalcooperative 8.0 5.8State-ownedcompanies 5.7 8.9PrivatesectorPartlyprivatelyownedcompanies 9.3 12.5Privatelyownedcompanies 14.1 16.5Individualentrepreneursandenterpriseswithnolegalentity

12.4 13.8

(Total) (100)(100)Sources:1992:KolosiandSik,1992:21;1993:Kolosiet.al.,1993:18

amonglargeones(KolosiandSik,1992:10).Thatfurthersubstantiatestheclaimthatupuntil1993therateofdevelopmentoftheprivatesectorwasdeterminedlargelybynewenterprisesratherthanprivatization.

Intermsofthenationalityofownershipin1992,90percentofemployeesworkedforcompaniesentirelyinHungarianownership,8.7percentwerelocatedinpartHungarian,partforeign-ownedcompanies,whileonly1.4percentworkedforfirmsentirelyinforeignhands.Despitethehighlevelofworkingcapitalinflux,unparalleledintheregion,theproportionofforeignownershipisrelativelylowinthewholeoftheeconomy;insomesmallWesternEuropeancountriestheproportionofplacesofemploymentpartiallyorwhollyinforeignownershipreaches50percent.Therefore,theviewconcerningthedominationofforeigncapitalisunfounded(KolosiandSik,1992:10).In1993,theratioofthoseworkingfor

companiespartiallyorwhollyinforeignownershipdidnotreach20percenteveninthemoreprivatizedandcosmopolitanBudapest.

ChangeoftheIncomeDistributionandtheMiddleStrata

TheinequalityofincomeinsocietyismonitoredbytheHungarianHouseholdPanelStudy.Researchersaskedaboutallformsofincome,andtheirchanges,indetail(seeKolosietal.,1993).Despitetherelativereliabilityofthedata,itmustbeemphasizedthatdeclaredincomeisestimatedtobe3050percentbelowactuallevels.

5

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Table6.3:Meanhouseholdpercapitaincome,1992and1994(1992) (1994)

Populationdeciles

Meanincome

(1991=100)Meanincome

(1993=100)

Bottom 4,617 128 4,600 1012 6,593 128 7,264 1053 7,677 125 8,873 1104 8,564 124 10,031 1125 9,394 124 11,073 1146 10,378 124 12,234 1147 11,721 125 13,694 1148 13,629 126 15,933 1169 16,858 127 19,806 117Top 28,649 127 33,920 118Top/bottomratio

6.21 __ 7.37 __

Sources:1992:KolosiandSik,1992:24.1994:Kolosietal.,1994:19

Ifwedividethepopulationintotengroupsofequalsizebylevelofincome,itbecomespossibletosketchthemaintendenciesoftheeffectsofthesystemtransformationonthedistributionofincomebetween1991and1994(Table6.3).Thedetailedstudyoftemporalseriesofincomedecilesrevealsthattheincomedifferentiationaccompanyingthesystemtransformationoccurrednotattheexpenseofmembersofthetwobottomdeciles,butatthecostofadeteriorationinthepositionsofthemembersofdeciles3to7.Thewidelyheldopinionthatduringthesystemtransformationthepoorbecamepooreristrueonlytoaverylimitedextent.Whiletherichbecamericher,itwasmainlythelowermiddlestratawhosecircumstancesdeclined,whilethemostdisadvantagedbottomtenthofthepopulationmanagedtomaintainitslevelofincome.Itwouldappearthattheeconomicburdenofthefirstperiodofthetransition

waslargelybornbythemiddlestratum,which,evenduringthelateKádárera,couldonlymaintainitsstandardoflivingbyenteringthesecondeconomyinaself-exploitativemanner.Itmaybearesultofthedisillusionmentofthosestratathatin1992,theHungarianDemocraticParty,thelargestpartyinthecoalitiongovernment,wasthemostunpopularamongthoseidentifyingthemselvesaslowermiddleclass(Róbert,1994:15).

Theprocesswherebythedifferentiationofincomewasbeingrealizedbytherichbecomingricherandthemiddlestratalosingground,whichhasbeenalong-termtrend,seemstobecomingtoahalt.Betweenthebottomandtopinequalitiesofincomeincreasedtoaconsiderableextentintheperiodbetween1992and1994,andthemiddle-incomegroupscouldattaingreatergrowthinincomethanlower-incomegroups.

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IdentificationwiththeMiddleClassandSocialAttitudes

Theexplanationofbehaviourmusttakepsychologicalelementsintoaccountaswell.Oneoftheseimportantsubjectivefactorsisthesenseofidentity,whichisoftenrootedinthedeeplayersofhumanpersonality.

AccordingtotheresultsofWesternEuropeananalyses,indemocraticcircumstances,(AlmondandVerba,1963)citizensareconfidentthattheycanaffectthedemocraticinstitutionsbyrationalaction(participatinginelections)andbecausetheyholdthoseinstitutionspredictable(confidenceinthelaw).Theyarealsofreetopursueactivitiesincivilsociety(Berlin,1979).Thisrequireseconomicautonomyorindependence.Thepost-industrialcapitalistmiddleclassesmaintaintheirautonomybycontrollingassets(seeTable6.1).

Historically,thatimageofcitizenry(citoyen)connectedwithapoliticalcultureoriginatedatthetimeoftheFrenchRevolution.Thatageistheperiodofpoliticalstrugglebetween,ontheonehand,thenobilityandtheclergy,andontheothertheiropponent,thethirdestate(Bibó,1990).Justastheconceptofthethirdestateiswiderthanthatofthebourgeoisie,thepoliticalsenseoftheconceptofcitizendiffersfromtheconceptofthemiddleclassdefinedbypositionwithinthedivisionoflabourand/orsocialstratification.ThemiddleclassesofWesternsocietiescanbeconsideredratherhomogenousinthatsensethattheycanbecharacterizedbyacivicpoliticalculture.Insocietiesundergoingdelayedmodernization,suchasinCentralandEasternEurope,thesociologicalcompositionofthemiddleclassesismoreheterogeneous.Thedual,gentryandbourgeois,natureofthemiddleclassofHungariansocietybetweenthetwoWorldWarsisacaseinpoint.Thereasonoftencitedforheterogeneityintheirpoliticalcultureisthattheeconomicautonomyrequiredforcivillibertiesislackinginsomeformoranotherinthemiddlestrata

ofthesesocieties.

Totalitariansystemsstrivetocontrolthemembersofsocietytosuchanextentthattheyevendemandtherighttodeterminetheirpersonalidentities(Eros

*,1993).Inthestatesocialistsystem,foralongtimetheonlyelementsofsocialidentitythatcouldbepubliclyprofessedwerethoserecognizedbyCommunistideology.Bourgeoisbecameaforbiddencategoryandthewholeofthebourgeoisiewaspronouncedclass-alien.Theeffectofthestatemanipulationofidentitywascushionedtosomeextentbytheremainingsmallcirclesofliberty,the

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familyandtheremnantsofcivicsociety,soinreality,traditionalelementsofidentityremainedinheritable(Bibó,1990;Szummer,1992).Themosteffectivemeansusedbystatesocialismtopreventthesurvivalofcitizens'politicalculturewastheabolitionofprivatepropertyandthemarketeconomy.Astheprocessesofreforminitiatedinthe1960sbegantotakeshape,theconditionsforapluralismofidentitieswerecreatedinparallelwiththerebirthofcivilsociety(Fábián,1992).

ThevalidityoftheabovelineofreasoningissupportedbytheempiricalanalysesofRóbertandSági(1994)whichshowtheroleofthesecondeconomyintheidentificationwithmiddleclassandbourgeoisie.Theirtime-seriesofdataalsoshowthatthenormativecontextoftheaboveelementsofidentitychangedafterthesystemtransformation.Afterthesystemtransformation,thecategoryofmiddleclassandofthebourgeoisiewasre-evaluatedinpoliticaldiscourse.Itsearlierpejorativeconnotationwaslost,notleastbecausethepartiesstartedanintensiveraceforthevotesofthosegroups.

Inhisanalysisoftheconnectionbetweenclassidentitiesandpoliticalattitudestowardsthesystemtransformation,PéterRóbert(1994)hasshownthatthesocialimpactofthesystemtransformationisevaluatedinamoredifferentiatedmannerbythoseidentifyingwiththemiddleclassthanwiththelowerclass,workingclassorlower-middleclass.Thelastrespondtotheincreasingsocialdifferencesresultingfromthesystemtransformationwithafrustratedpaternalisticattitude.Ascendingthesocialladder,refusalofaguardianstatebecomesthemorecharacteristicpoliticalattitudefromthelower-middleclassupwards.

OurportraitoftheHungarianmiddlestrataandtheeconomicandsocialprocessesaffectingthesesocialgroupsisnecessarilyfragmentaryincomparisonwiththetheoreticframeworksintroduced.

Summarizingourmainobservations,theeconomicburdenoftheinitialstageofthesystemtransformationwasbornebythelowerbandofthemiddlestrata.Thistendencyappearstobechanginginthe1993-4period,inasmuchasthebottom30percentinincomewasabletomaintainitslevelofincomeofthepreviousyearlesswellthanthemiddlestrata.AccordingtothesubsistenceminimumcalculationsoftheKSH(CentralInstituteofStatistics),theproportionofthepopulationlivingbelowthesubsistencelevelhastripledsince1989.Theprivatesectorhasexpandeddynamically,especiallyindependententrepreneursandprivate-sectoremployees,andinthecaseoftheformer,theynowapproachtheproportioninWesternEuropeansocieties.By1993,asignificantlowerandmiddleproperty-owningclass(petitebourgeoisie)haddevelopedinHungary.However,

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theprivatizationoflargecompaniesprogressedatamuchlowerrate.Despitetheexceptionalinfluxofforeigncapital,onlyasmallfractionofjobsareprovidedbycompaniesinforeignhands.Intermsoftheinternaldifferentiationofthemiddleclass,this,alongwiththeunderdevelopedcharacterofthehomecapitalmarket,hindersthedevelopmentofanemployeeormanagerialnewmiddleclass.

Notes

1CommisionedbytheMinistryofWefare,TÁRKIexaminedthecircumstancesofmiddlestratafromSeptember1993toMarch1994.Thisessayformsapartofthesummaryreportonthatresearch(seeKolosi,Róbert,SágiandFábián,1994).

2Inhiscorrespondinganalyses(1987a,1987b),KolosifoundthatincomparisonwithDutch,WestGermanandCzechoslovakiansocieties,Hungariansocietyislesswellcharacterizedbyconsistentmiddlestrata.Inthe1980s,thedistinguishingfeatureofHungarianmiddlestratawaspreciselythathighlevelofinconsistency.Sincethesystemtransformation,thelevelofstatuscrystallizationhasincreasedinHungariansociety(Fábián,1994b).However,wedonotknowwhateffectthatgeneraltrendishavingonthesociologicalprofileofthemiddlestrata.

3Itisworthnotingherethatcivilandbourgeois'aredenotedbythesamewordinHungarian,andconsequentlypolitical-culturalconnotations(e.g.civicculture)areoftenneglectedorconfusedwiththesocio-economicmeaningoftheword.

4Weshouldmentionthattheabovefigurescontainso-calledforcedenterpreneurs,whoareactuallyemployeesandonlyfigureasindependentstosecurebetternationalinsuranceandtaxterms.Wedonothavereliabledataaboutthesizeofthatgroup.

5Wemayalsonotethatquestionnairestudiesarenotsuitableforinvestigatingtheverytopandverybottomlayersofsociety,thehomelessandthehighestgroupsoftheelite,astheyaretechnicallyimpossibletoreach,andthechancesofmembersofthosegroupsoccurringinasampleareminimal.About400billionForints(approximately$4.3billion)aremissingincomparisonwiththemacro-statisticaldata,mostofwhichcomesfromtheprivatesector(Kolosietal.,1993).

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Róbert,PéterandSági,M.,1994.Aközéposztálymegerosodesenek*szubjektívaspektusai[SubjectiveAspectsofMiddleClassDevelopment].Kézirat.[Mimeograph].Budapest:TÁRKI.

Soebel,M.,1981.LifeStyleandSocialStructure.NewYork:AcademicPress.

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Szummer,Csaba,1992.Identitásváltásvagyindentitáspatológia[ChangeorPathologyofIdentity].MagyarTudomány,2.

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*alapvonalai.1.kötet.[EconomyandSociety].Budapest:KözgazdaságiésJogiKönyokiadó.

Wright,ErikOlinandMartinBill,1987.TheTransformationoftheAmericanClassStructure.AmericanJournalofSociology,July,129.

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Chapter7ConsciousnessofInequalityPéterRóbert

THEinvestigationofsocialinequalitieshasbeenoneofthecentralsubjectsofsociologicalresearchforalongtime.HowhasthesystemofrelationspertainingtosocialinequalitybeenreshapedbytheeconomicandpoliticaltransitioninHungary?Sociologistsmayattemptananswerbymeansofmeasuringthesocialstatusofpeople,thatisvariouscharacteristicsrelatedtotheiroccupation,qualifications,incomes,consumptionorlivingcircumstancesanddrawtheirconclusionsasregardsthedistancebetweenvarioussocialgroups.Itisalsopossibletoaskpeoplehowtheythemselvesperceivetheirpositionandwhethertheircircumstancesandopportunitieshaveimprovedordeteriorated.Manyconsidersocialfacts,thatisdataoninequalitiesanddistancesbetweensocialgroups,tobeascientificallymorevaluableandreliablesourcethanwhatcanbeinferredfrompeople'sownfeelingsandimpressions.Yetsincesocialinequalitiesmanifestthemselvesaspoliticalproblems,thelatterapproachisequallyrelevant,sincepeople'spoliticalpreferencesandvotingbehaviourarefarmoredeterminedbytheirfeelingsthanbythewaysocialscientistschoosetodescribethem.Moreover,people'sopinionsandattitudesmayalsobeconsideredsocialfacts.Consequently,thereflectionofsocialinequalitiesonthesubjective,individuallevelisanobjectivephenomenonwhichrequiresanalysis.

ThisstudyattemptstopresentsomeaspectsofinequalityconsciousnessinHungariansocietyintheearly1990s.Theavailabledataprovideanoverviewofpeople'ssubjectiveclassidentification,wheretheyplacethemselvesintheHungariansocialhierarchy,which

factorstheyconsidersignificantfordeterminingchangesofsocialstatusandwhattheirfeelingsareaboutthesocialinequalitieswhichhaveresultedfrom

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thetransition.Whenpossible,tablespresentdatafrombeforeandafterthetransition.Thesourceisthe1992mobilitysurveyconductedbyTÁRKI(SocialResearchInformaticsCentre)andtheISSP(InternationalSocialScienceProgram).

1

ClassIdentification

Themostgeneralreflectionofinequalityconsciousnessisclass-consciousness:withwhichsocialclassdopeopleidentifythemselves?Analysesofsocialstructureandtherelatedtheoreticaldebateshavebeencharacterizedbyaconstantfluctuationbetweenclass-basedandstrata-basedapproaches.2Classself-identificationhasbeensuccessfullyusedinpublicopinionpollsandattitudesurveysaimedattheanalysisofpoliticalopinionsinnearlyallsocieties.Sometimesthecategoriesusedinthesesurveysonlymakeadistinctionwithinthedichotomyofworkingclassandmiddleclass,butasaruletheydistinguishbetweenlowerclass,workingclass,middleclassandupperclass.Whileitisanobviousfactthattheseclasspositionsarequiteheterogeneousempirically,theyneverthelessmakesenseaswordsstimulatingageneralconsciousnessofidentifyinthemajorityofpeople.Identificationwithclassesmaybeconsideredthewayinwhichclassformationprocessesofthetransitionperiodarereflectedinpeople'sconsciousness.TheHungarianpraxishasshowntheneedtocompletetheclassificationwiththelower-middleandupper-middleclasseswhichprovidesforamoresophisticatedrangeofchoicesandthusregisterssubtlerdifferencesinasocietyundergoingarealeconomicandsocialtransition.

Withrespecttoclass-consciousnessforthreeconsecutiveyears(1991,1992,1993)3therearefluctuationsinthedata,somewithintherange

ofsamplingerrorandsomestatisticallysignificant.Alineartrendcanonlybeseenwithregardtothelowerclasswhichisgrowingmoderately,butstilllowerthanthemeasurebasedonanswerstoquestionsaboutwhethertherespondentlivesbelowtheminimumsubsistencelevel(Table7.1).

Thedatarevealamajordecreasefollowedbyaminorincreaseintheidentificationwiththeworkingclass.Inanycasethisisthemoststablesocialgroup.AsTable7.2shows,two-thirdsofthesamerespondentsaskedin1992and1993identifiedthemselveswiththeworkingclassinbothyears.Asamatteroffact,thereseemstobeamarkedfluctuationbetweentheworkingclassandthelowerclass.Forty-sixpercentofthosewhoidentifiedthemselveswiththelowerclassin1992cameto

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Table7.1:Classidentification,1991-3(%)1991 1992 1993 (%change)

Lowerclass 7.2 9.4 10.0 (+2.8)Wokingclass 48.8 39.8 42.6 (-6.2)Lower-middleclass 17.6 16.1 185 (+0.9)Middleclass 23.8 31.9 27.6 (+3.8)Upper-middleclass 2.4 2.4 1.3 (-1.1)Upperclass 0.2 0.4 __ (-0.2)(N) (971) (2,953) (1,140)

identifythemselveswiththeworkingclassin1993;conversely,49percentofthoseidentifyingthemselveswiththelowerclassin1993hadclassifiedthemselvesasworkingclassin1992.

Inthecaseofthemiddleclassthetrendistheopposite:thereisamajorincreasebetween1991and1992,followedbyaminordeclinein1993.Thestabilityofthemiddleclassissmallerthanthatoftheworkingclass:50to60percentbetween1992and1993.Thesmallerstabilityofthemiddleclassisdueprimarilytothefactthatoneineveryfour(26percent)whoidentifiedthemselvesasmiddleclassin1992cametoclassifythemselvesaslower-middleclassin1993.Seenfromtheotheraspect,44

Table7.2:Changingclassidentificationin1992-3,panelsurveya(%)

(1993)LowerWorkingLower-

middleMiddleUpper-

middle1992Outflow

Lower 42 46 5 7 __Working 12 66 10 12 __Lower-middle

9 38 32 21 __

Middle 2 18 26 51 3Upper-middle

__ (8) (8) (76) (8)

InflowLower 29 8 2 2 __Working 49 64 23 19 (8)Lower-middle

15 15 30 14 __

Middle 7 13 44 59 (64)Upper-middle

__ __ 1 6 (14)

Upper __ __ __ __ (14)aN=1,140.Boldfiguresexpressstableclassidentification.Bracketednumbersarevaluesbasedonsuchasmallnumberofcasesthattheyareunreliable

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percentofthelower-middleclassof1993hadconsidereditselfmiddleclassin1992.InHungary,thelower-middleclassisinfacttypicallythebufferzonewhich,accordingtoGiddens(1973),delimitsthemiddleclassfromthelower-statusworkingclass.Itsstabilityissubstantiallysmaller(30percent)thanthatofeithertheworkingclassorthemiddleclass.Thisisthespherewherethetwo-waymobilityofclassesactuallyoccurs.

Elsewhere,wehaveanalysedstatisticallythesocial-demographicaldeterminantsofclassformation,identificationwiththemiddleclassinparticular(RóbertandSági,1994).Thatanalysisrevealedthesignificantandunchangingeffectofoccupation,qualificationsandevensocialbackgroundonbelongingtothemiddleclass.Fluctuation,however,waslargelyaresultofthegrowingroleofmaterialfactors(income,wealth)indeterminingidentificationwithacertainclass.Financialstatushadsomeimpactpreviously,butmereparticipationinthesecondeconomyembodiedanalternativechanceforrelativeindependenceandmaterialaffluencewhichgavepeoplethesenseofhavingmadeamajorsteptowardsthemiddleclass.Asaresultofthetransition,however,thesecondeconomyiscontracting.TheprivatizationofstateindustrybringsabouttheendofworkinginEnterpriseBusinessCommunities,inwhichpeopleemployedbyorretiredfromastate-ownedcompanydoseparateworkforthecompanyoncommission.Oneofthemainareasofthesecondeconomywasthesmall-scaleproductionofagriculturalgoodsathome,butbasedonresourcesoftheco-operative.Theliquidationofagriculturalco-operatives,turningagricultureintoacrisisbranchoftheeconomy,meansthathouseholdfarmingcannotbecontinued.Thesechangesexplainwhyearlierrelativeaffluencehasdepreciatedandagreatnumberofthosewhosemiddle-classexistencewasbasedonthisrelativesecurityandconsumeraffluencefeelthattheyaresuddenlygoingdownhill.Asthepossibilityofparticipationbecomes

availabletoanevernarrowingcircle,thelessinfluencethisfactorhasonclass-consciousnessandthemorefactorssuchaswealthandmaterialconsumptionhavecometodetermineclass-consciousness.

PlaceontheSocialLadder

TherearepeopleinHungaryinhigherandlowersocialpositions,respectively.Youcanseealadderinthispicture.Ifthetopstepoftheladdermeansthoseinthehighestpositionandthebottomstepmeans

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thoseinthelowest,wherewouldyouplaceyourselfonit?Weaskedthisquestioninasurveyconductedonanation-widerepresentativesamplefirstin1987,in1992andagainintheautumnof1993(RóbertandSági,1992).

TheHungariandatacouldalsobeevaluatedinaninternationalcomparison,asthesurveywasconductedwithintheframeworkofISSPresearch.Weconcludedthat,incomparisonwiththedataofdevelopedmarketeconomies.Hungariansfeelthattheirsocialstatushasimprovedmorecomparedtotheirparents',yetonaveragetheyevaluatetheirownstatusonthesocialladderashavingdeteriorated.Themorerecentdataenableustoshowhowtheevaluationofthesituationhaschangedinaperiodwhichincludesthepoliticaltransitionwithallitseconomicandsocialconsequences.

Peopleevaluatedtheirsocialstatusmoreunfavourablyintheearly1990sthantheydidbeforethetransition.Ona10-pointscalewith1thetopand10thebottom,in1987themeanratingforsubjectivestatuswas6.30.In1992,themeanratinghadfallento7.08.Itrecoveredto6.96inthefollowingyear,butwasstillmorethanhalfastepdownfromsixyearsearlier.Whiletherewasabroadstratum(30percent)onthefifthstepin1987,the1992and1993percentageofthoseatthislevelwaslessthan10percent.In1987,52percentoftherespondentswerelocatedonsteps5and6.Thesameproportionofpeoplearefoundonsteps6and7in1993.Whileafourthoftherespondentsplacedthemselvesonthelowestthreestepsin1987,theproportionwas40percentin1992and35percentin1993.However,thedeclineinsocialstatuswasalsomatchedbyadeclineininequality,asmeasuredbythestandarddeviation:itwas1.7in1987,fallingto1.6in1992and1.4thefollowingyear.

Wealsoexaminedfindingsinrelationtooccupation,qualifications,placeofresidenceandincome.Table7.3showsthatsocialstatusas

measuredbyobjectiveindicatorsisrelatedtosubjectiveevaluation:thehighertheoccupationalgrouponebelongsto,themoreeducatedoneis,themoreurbanthesettlementonelivesinandthehigherone'sincome,thehigheronewillplaceoneselfonthesocialladder.Ontheotherhand,thereisnotasingleoccupationalgroup,educationallevel,categoryofsettlementorincomegroupthatdoesnotfeeladeteriorationofsocialstatuscomparedtotheperiodprecedingthetransition.

Inthecaseofoccupation,managersfeltastrongerdeteriorationofsocialstatusthanintellectuals.Skilledworkersaretheothergroup,bothonthebasisofoccupationandqualifications,whichhasexperiencedamarkeddecline.Asonemovesdowntheslopeofurbanization,the

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Table7.3:Meansubjectivestatusbysocial-demographiccharacteristics

198719921993Change(Mean:ahigherscoremeansworsesocialstatus,since1wasthetopstepoftheladder)Occupation

Agriculturemanual 6.72 7.94 7.34 -0.62Unskilledandsemi-skilledworker 6.63 7.46 7.26 -0.63Skilledworker 6.22 6.16 6.83 -0.61Self-employed 5.88 6.59 6.24 -0.36White-collarworker 6.08 6.71 6.55 -0.47Professional 5.49 6.09 6.13 -0.64Manager 5.49 6.46 5.97 -0.48

EducationBelow8years 7.12 7.68 7.77 -0.658years 6.33 7.62 7.41 -1.08Vocationalschool 6.16 7.13 6.97 -0.81Secondary 6.05 6.57 6.49 -0.44College 5.55 6.42 6.12 -0.57University 5.18 5.76 5.92 -0.74

PlaceofLivingVillage 6.52 7.41 7.34 -0.82Town 6.26 7.06 6.94 -0.68Countyseat 6.12 6.89 5.56 -0.44Budapest 6.03 6.56 6.55 -0.52

IncomeBottomquintile 6.65 7.41 na (-0.76)

¦ 6.74 7.65 na (-0.91)¦ 6.22 7.14 na (-0.92)¦ 6.14 7.02 na (-0.88)

Topquintile 5.81 6.23 na (-0.42)na:thequestionaboutincomewasnotincludedinthe1993questionnaire

inhabitants'perceptionoftheirsocialstatusdeteriorates.Thestructuralchangesintheindustry,andunfavourableprocessesinforeignmarketsarealldevelopmentswhichadverselyaffecttheskilledworkers'earlieropportunitiesforincomestrategiesbasedonparticipationinthesecondeconomy.Itisprimarilypeoplelivinginthecountrywhosesocialstatusisunfavourablyaffectedbythebankruptcyofagriculture.Themanagers'feelingofafallinstatusabovetheaveragemaybeexplainedbythefactthattheirreferencecategoryhasbecome,morethaneverbefore,theWestanditsmanagerialincomes,lifestylesandconsumptionlevels.

Theonlyfavourableresultisthatthedatashownofurtherdeteriorationofthesubjectivesocialstatusbetween1992and1993.Withrespecttooccupationitisonlytheintellectualswhoplacedthemselveseven

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Table7.4:Internalstructureofsocialinequalityconsciousness(N=2,418,correlationcoefficients)a

(Subjectiveindicators)

IncomeCulture Occupation StatusSubjectiveindicators

Subjectiveincome 1.00Subjectiveculture .47 1.00Subjectiveoccupationalprestige

.42 .62 1.00

Subjectivesocialstatus .64 .59 .60 1.00Objectiveindicators

Occupation .23 .43 .42 .33Education .27 .50 .45 .37Income .24 .21 .23 .24Placeofliving .08 .17 .15 .10Age -.12 -.14 -.09 -.11Subjectiveclass .39 .45 .42 .46

aAllcorrelationsaresignificantatp<.001

loweronthesocialladderin1993thanayearbefore,whilewithrespecttoqualificationsitisthoseholdinguniversitydegreesandthosewithoutanyeducationwhodidso.Elsewherethedataaresimilarorsomewhatbetterthanpreviouslybutoftenwithinthemarginofsamplingerror.

Sincestatusisamulti-dimensionalphenomenon,wehaveattemptedtodistinguishthemostsignificantdimensions.Consequently,intheTÁRKImobilitysurveyofspring1992peoplewereaskedtoplacethemselvesona10-stepladderaccordingtotheirfinancialstatus,theireducationandculture,theiroccupationalprestigeandfinallyaccordingtotheirsocialstatus.Themeanratingforfinancialstatuswas4.1;forsocialstatus4.5;occupationalprestige,4.7;andfor

educationandculture,5.1.Thereisadifferenceofonewholestepinthemeansforfinancialstatus,whichishighest,andculture,whichislowest.Generalsocialstatusisthemostcloselyrelatedtofinancialstatus:thetermsocialstatusmakespeoplethinkmostlyoftheirfinancialstatus.Thereisonlyarelativelysmallcorrelationbetweensubjectivefinancialstatusandsubjectivestatusinthehierarchyofculturalandoccupationalinequalities(Table7.4).Thelattertwovariables,however,haveamoremarkedcorrelation.Onedimensionofinequalityconsciousnessisfinancialstatus,whiletheotherdimensioniscultural,educationalandoccupationalstatus.

4

Theevaluationofone'ssituationwithrespecttofinancialinequalitiesistheleastconnectedtosocial-demographicvariablesandclass-consciousness.ThecorrelationcoefficientsinthelowerpartofTable7.2

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show,accordingtotheobjectiveandsubjectiveindicatorsofsocialstatus,thatinequalityconsciousness(exceptingthedistinctiveexperienceoffinancialstatus)isconsistentlyhighlycorrelatedwithoccupation,educationandclass-consciousness,moderatelycorrelatedwithincomeandweaklycorrelatedwiththeplaceofresidenceandage.Thedirectionofthecorrelationsisalwayspositive,exceptforage,withahighersocialstatusassociatedwithamorefavourableexperienceinconsciousness.Thenegativecorrelationwithageindicatesthattheyoungevaluatetheirstatusmorefavourablythantheelderly.

FactorsInfluencingSocialStatus

Whichsocialfactorsareconsideredbypeopletoinfluencetheirsocialstatusandtowhatdegreearetheseanimportantelementofinequalityconsciousness?Thefactorswhichtheyconsidertohaveagreaterroleindeterminingtheircircumstancesandopportunitieswillbethosedimensionsofinequalityinwhichperceivedsuccessorfailurehasbeenachieved.Thesefactorswillmakeaprimaryimpactontheirgeneralmood,behaviourandevaluationoftheirstatus.

RespondentstotheTÁRKImobilitysurveyofspring1992hadtoranktwentyfactorsonascaleof1to5onthebasisofthedegreetowhichtheyinfluencesocialstatus.ThesefactorsarepresentedinTable7.5intheorderofthemeansoftheresponses.Lookingatthetopoftheranking(anaveragevalueof4orhigheronthescaleof5),wecanseethatsocialstatusisprimarilyinfluencedbyfactorssuchastheamountofincomefromafull-timejob,theexistenceorlackofnetworkconnectionsandstatusasamanagerorsubordinateemployee.Thisresultonceagainsuggeststhatpeople,whenconsideringtheirsocialstatus,thinkoffinancialstatusfirst;besidesincomefromafull-timejob,theamountofadditionalincomecomesfifthintherankings.Beyondfinancialstatustheyalsothinkofan

informalstatuswhichgivesoneaccesstothatwhichcannotbemeasuredinmoney;andthisisfollowedbyaformalstatusofpower,amanagerialposition.Allthesethreefactorsinfluencingsocialstatusareofaremarkablymaterialcharacterandimplythatdemandsarenotsatisfiedtoasufficientdegree,butthisinsufficientsatisfactioncanbemaximizedbyoptimisingcontrol(money,connectionsworthmoneyandpower).Postmaterialfeaturesofstatussuchasone'swayofthinking,prestigeorthevaluesbywhichonelivesareatthebottomoftherankorder.

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Table7.5:FactorsinfluencingsocialstatusMeanDeviation%sayingagreat

deal(Greatdeal=5;Notatall=1)

Full-timeincome 4.2 .9 45.5Connections 4.2 .9 45.1Managerorsubordinateemployee

4.0 1.0 40.5

Typeofjob 3.9 .9 32.6Additionalincome 3.9 1.0 31.6Talent 3.8 .9 27.5Familybackground 3.8 1.0 31.8Education 3.8 1.0 27.1Lifestyle 3.8 .9 22.8Self-employedoremployee 3.8 1.0 26.3Luck 3.8 1.0 29.2Wayofthinking 3.7 1.0 22.8Prestige 3.6 1.0 19.3Valuesfollowed 3.5 1.0 14.7Typeofsettlement 3.3 1.1 16.6Region 3.3 1.2 17.3Ethnicity 2.9 1.2 9.2Gender 2.8 1.2 8.9Politicalviews 2.6 1.2 6.2Religion 1.8 1.9 1.8(N=2,499)

Lookingatthebottomoftherankorder,anaveragevalueof3orlower,weseeethnicity,politicalviewsandreligioninfluencingsocialstatustheleast.Whatthesefactorsshareisanoppositiontotheprincipleofachievement,insofarastheyareallascriptivefactorsderivingsocialstatusfromwhetherthepersoninquestionismaleorfemale,belongstoacertainethnicgrouporreligiousdenomination.Peopleperceivethesediscriminatoryfactorstohavenomorethana

minoreffectonsocialstatus.

Itisonlynaturalthatcertainconnectionsappearbetweensocialstatusitselfandopinionsconcerningthefactorswhichhaveaninfluenceonit.Characteristically,thosewhorankedlifestyle,wayofthinkingandvaluesasmorestronglyinfluencingstatuswerepeoplewithhighereducationandinmoresenioremploymentroles.Inaddition,asweproceedupwardsinthehierarchyofoccupationsandqualifications,thementionoffactorssuchasplaceofresidence,regionorevenethnicityandgender

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Table7.6:Dimensionsofsocialstatusfordifferentsocio-demographicgroupsJobstatusversusqualifications

Jobstatusversussalary

Qualificationsversussalary

job qualificationsboth job salaryboth qualificationssalarybothOccupationManager 51.6 18.1 30.2 32.8 38.7 28.5 22.5 54.0 23.5Professional 56.3 15.8 27.9 28.0 45.3 26.7 24.8 51.6 23.6White-collar 52.7 17.5 29.8 20.6 50.3 29.1 14.9 57.9 27.2Lowermanager

58.3 9.2 32.5 18.5 54.1 27.4 12.9 65.1 22.0

Self-employed

54.7 15.1 30.2 17.6 55.6 26.8 10.2 62.0 27.8

Skilledlabourer

55.6 14.8 29.6 15.9 58.2 25.9 12.0 63.4 24.6

Unskilledlabourer

48.5 19.6 31.9 15.4 57.4 27.2 12.0 60.9 27.1

Agricult.manual

44.6 17.4 38.0 19.6 50.0 30.4 14.6 51.6 33.8

(Total) (51.7) (16.7) (31.6)(19.1)(53.3)(27.6) (14.2) (59.3)(26.5)N 1,348 435 822 502 1,407729 376 1,567702

EducationBelow8classesofprimaryschool

43.1 21.1 35.8 17.6 51.0 31.4 13.7 53.7 32.6

8classesofprimaryschool

48.5 18.2 33.3 16.7 55.9 27.4 13.3 59.3 27.4

Vocationalschool

53.0 15.4 31.6 14.8 58.2 27.0 11.9 61.1 27.0

Vocationalsecondaryschool

59.6 14.1 26.3 23.8 52.9 23.3 15.7 62.3 22.0

Secondary 55.0 16.3 28.7 21.4 49.3 29.3 14.9 58.6 26.5

gymnasiumCollege 50.2 17.4 32.4 32.4 38.6 29.0 24.3 52.4 23.3University 55.5 16.0 28.5 23.8 49.2 27.0 19.5 58.5 22.0(Total) (51.4) (17.0) (31.6)(19.2)(53.2)(27.6) (14.5) (58.7)(26.8)N 1,461 483 897 552 1,529795 419 1,692771

PlaceoflivingVillage 47.4 16.3 36.3 16.5 51.8 31.7 13.8 54.9 31.3Town 52.4 17.1 30.5 19.8 54.8 26.1 13.4 61.0 25.6Countyseat 52.0 20.6 27.4 24.6 52.9 22.5 17.9 60.5 21.6Budapest 57.0 16.0 27.0 19.8 54.5 25.7 15.3 61.3 23.4(Total) (51.4) (17.1) (31.5)(19.2)(27.6 (27.6) (14.6) (58.7)(26.7)N 1,461 485 897 553 1,530795 420 1,693771

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increasesaswell.Thismayimplythatthoseinhigherpositionsandwithhigherqualificationsconsidertheinfluenceofdiscriminatoryfactorsindeterminingsocialstatustobegreater.Religionandpoliticalviewsonlyshowastatisticallysignificantconnectionwiththeolderagegroup.Interestingly,itispossibletoascertaintheimpactofsocialstrataonthefactorswhichrankinthemiddleoratbottom,whilethesameislessfrequentinthecaseofthehigh-rankingfactors.Differencesofoccupationalstatus,educationandplaceofresidenceseemtohavelessimpactonwhetherfull-timeincomeornetworkconnectionsareconsideredtobefactorscrucialindeterminingsocialstatus.

Weapproachedthesamequestioninadifferentwaybyaskingpeoplewhatthoughtstheexpressionsshe/hehasdonewellinlifeandhis/hersocialstatushasimprovedevokeintheirminds.Dotheythinkofsomeonewhohasachievedhighstatusintheirjob,attainedhigheducationalqualifications,orsecuredajobwithagoodsalary?Theaimwastomeasurewhatinfluencethethreeconventionaldimensionsofstratificationandinequalityresearchoccupation,culturalandmaterialresourceshadinanevaluationofdoingwellinsociety.Thethreedimensionswerearrangedincontrastingpairs.Respondentsalwayshadtochoosebetweentwodimensionsatatime:firstbetweenasenioremploymentroleorhighqualifications,thenbetweenaseniorjobpositionoragoodsalary,andfinallybetweenhighqualificationsoragoodsalary.Ifrespondentscouldnotdecide,theiranswerswereinterpretedasboth.

Peoplemeasureprogressandtheimprovementofsocialstatuspredominantlyintermsofmoney(Table7.6).Whenasenioremploymentrolewascontrastedwithagoodsalary,59percentchosesalaryasopposedto14percentchoosingthesenioremploymentstatus.Whenhighqualificationswerecontrastedwithagoodsalary,53percentchosesalary,while19percentchosetheformer.High

qualificationslostinthecompetitionwithasenioremploymentroleaswell:51percentconsideredthelatter,while17percentconsideredtheformerasignofhavingdonewell.

Thedatashowdifferencesacrosssocialstrata.Thoseinlowermanagerialpositionsandprofessionalsareonaveragemorelikelytochooseasenioremploymentroleoverhighqualifications.Withrespecttoqualifications,thosewhohavecompletedvocationalsecondaryschoolsandthoselivinginBudapestareonaveragemorelikelytochooseasenioremploymentroleratherthanhigheducationalqualifications.Agoodsalarywasmoreoftenpreferredtoasenioremploymentrolebysemi-skilledorunskilledworkers,whileitwasmoreoften

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preferredtohighqualificationsbythoseinlowermanagerialpositionsandskilledworkers.

Conclusion

ThesystemtransitionwhichhastakenplaceinHungariansocietyinthepastfewyearshasresultedinincreasingsocialinequalities.Itisaprocessthepopulationapparentlyfindshardtotolerate.WhenaskedwhetherInequalitiesofincomearetoogreat,76percentoftherepresentativesampleagreedin1987,84percentagreedin1992and88percentagreedin1993.Thisattitudeissounanimousthatanalysisofvariancebysocial-demographicvariablesscarcelyyieldsanysignificantdifferences.WhenaskedabouttheirlevelofagreementwiththestatementGreatdifferencesofincomearenecessaryforthedevelopmentofHungary,26percentagreedin1987,21percentagreedin1992and17percentin1993.Aslongasthemajorityperceivetheirownsocialstatustobedeteriorating,onlyaminoritywillaccepttheexistinginequalitiesofincomewhichtheymayconsidertobeincreasing.

Figure7.1

Attitudestowardwealth

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Theincreasingwealthofaminorityappearsillegitimate,evensuspectandillegal.TheaboveisapparentfromthedistributionofanswerstothequestionsoftheTÁRKIMobilitysurveyofspring1992(Figure7.1).Three-fourthsconsideritadutyofthestatetodecreaseinequalitiesofincome;moreover,theywouldevensupportthestateinvestigatinghowindividualshaveaccumulatedtheirwealth.Thereasonisthatwealthandbecomingwealthyarelinkedwithdishonestyandcrime(fraudandtheft)ininequalityconsciousness.

Inconnectionwithquestionsrelatedtothemagnitudeofdifferencesinincomeandthedutyofthestatetointerferewithit,Kolosi(1990)demonstratedthatevenbeforethepoliticaltransitioninHungary(1987ISSPdata)therelevantHungarianattitudesweresignificantlydifferentfromthosemeasuredintheAnglo-Saxoncountries,Germany,SwitzerlandandtheNetherlands.Theywereratherclose,however,totheopinionsofthoseaskedinAustriaandItaly.

Itisalsoworthnotingthatresearchonsocialinequalitieshasalwaysdemonstratedthedeterminingroleofculturalandeducationaldifferences.Yettheexperienceoftheseinequalitiesandpeople'srelatedattitudesandemotionsareapparentlydominatedbymaterialfactors.Itisamootpointwhetherthiscontrastisrealorvirtual.Ifitisarealcontrast,ourearlierknowledgeofobjectivesocialprocessesmayhavetobereconsidered.Wemightsuspectthatculturalandeducationaldifferencesmayhaveappearedsoimportantwithregardtosocialinequalitiesbecausewehavecontinuouslyunderestimatedtheroleofmaterialdifferencesintheprocessofmeasurement.Wemightalsoventureanotherexplanation:whileunderstatesocialismculturalcapitaldeterminedopportunitiestoagreaterextent,inamarketeconomymaterialcapitaldoesso.

Onthebasisofearliersociologicalresearch,wecouldarguethatculturalcapitalhasneverthelessbeenthesocialfactorplayingthe

essentialrolebothindetermininginequalitiesandtheconsciousnessthereof.Inthiscasewemustassumeasomewhatmorecomplexchainofcausalrelations.Eventhoughinequalityconsciousnessfollowsfromthematerialconditionsoflifetoagreaterdegree,thelatterareonlyintermediatevariablesinachainofcauseandeffectinwhichsuccessorfailureinamaterialsensearedeterminedbyculturalandeducationaldifferences,accesstoculturalcapitalandthecapitalofconnections.

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Notes

1ThisstudyisbasedontheresultsofresearchprojectNo.2617supportedbytheNationalScientificResearchFund(OTKA),TheCulturalandMaterialDeterminationoftheContentsofSocialConsciousness.TheresearchprojectisdirectedbyPéterRóbert.

2TherewasaperiodinAmericanempiricalsociologysubsequenttoresearchconductedbyWarnerandassociates(1941,1942)whenstratificationresearchcompletelyreplacedclass-basedanalyses.Later,however,ErikO.Wright'sneo-Marxistclass-basedapproach(1979,1985)broughtthelatterbackintosociologicalthought.Class-basedapproacheshavealwaysbeenpresentalongwithempiricalstratificationresearchinWesternEuropeinFrench(e.g.Bourdieu,1966)andEnglish(e.g.GoldthorpeandLockwood,1969orGiddens,1973)sociology.Intheformersocialistcountriesthefunctionofresearchofthiskind(Ferge,1973;Kolosi,1987)wastobalancetheideologicallybasedclassmodel.

3Thesourceofthe1991distributionisthecomparablequestioningoftheearlier(1989)sample.The1992dataarefromtheTÁRKImobilitysurvey,andthe1993distributionisbasedontherepeatedquestioningofasubsampleofthe1992survey.The1992andthe1993datathuscomefromidenticalpeople.

4Wehaveexaminedthisstatementbyprincipalcomponentanalysis,aswell.Eventhoughthevariablesexpressingthesubjectiveperceptionofstatusformedasingledimension,boththeloadingsandthecommunalityofthevariablereferringtotheevaluationofincomeweresmallerthanthoseoftheothervariables.

References

Bourdieu,P.,1966.Conditiondeclasseetstatusdeclasse.Archives

EuropéennesdeSociologie,VII.

Ferge,Zs.,1973.Társadalmunkretegzodese

*[TheStratificationofOurSociety].Budapest:KJK.

Giddens,A.,1973.TheClassStructureoftheAdvancedSocieties.London:Hutchinson.

Goldthorpe,J.H.andLockwood,D.etal.,1969.TheAffluentWorker.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.

Kolosi,T.,1987.Tagolttársadalom[Segmentedsociety].Budapest:Gondolat.

Kolosi,T.,1990.Egyenlotlensegtudat*nemzetköziösszehasonlításban[InequalityConsciousnessinInternationalComparison].InR.Andorka,T.KolosiandGy.Vukovich,eds.,Társadalmiriport1990[SocialReport1990].Budapest:TÁRKI.

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Róbert,P.andSági,M.,1992.Amikorasokkaljobbmégmindigrossz.Szubjektívtársadalmihelyzetnemzetköziösszehasonlításban[WhentheMuchBetterisStillBad.SubjectiveSocialStatusinanInternationalComparison].SzociológiaiSzemle,4.sz.

Róbert,P.andSági,M.,1994.Aközéposztálymegerosodesenek

*szubjektívaspektusai.[SubjectiveAspectsoftheStrengtheningoftheMiddleClass].Budapest:TÁRKI.Manuscript.

Warner,W.L.andLunt,P.S.,1941.TheSocialLifeofaModernCommunity.NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress.

Warner,W.L.andLunt,P.S.,1942.TheStatusSystemofaModernCommunity.NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress.

Wright,E.O.,1979.ClassStructureandIncomeDetermination.NewYork:AcademicPress.

Wright,E.O.,1985.Classes.London:NewLeftBooks.

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Chapter8WelfareProgrammesAndTheAlleviationOfPoverty

1

IstvánGyörgyTóth

PovertyhasbothincreasedandbecomemorevisibleinHungaryasaninevitableconsequenceofthetransformationalrecession(Kornai,1993)accompanyingthechangeoftheeconomicsystem.AccordingtotheHungarianCentralStatisticalOfficetheabsolutenumberofpeoplelivingunderthepovertylinein1992rosebyapproximatelyhalffromitsrelativelystablelevelof10percentpovertyrateinthe1980s(KSH,1993).TheHungarianHouseholdPanelshowedthatpovertyhadgrownto2225percentby1993(Kolosi,etal.,1993).Socialpolicyprogrammeshaveplayedanimportantroleinkeepingpovertyfromgrowingtoanevengreaterdegree,andhavetherebycontributedtothereductionofthesocialcostsofeconomictransformation.However,analysesofthesocialpolicysystemgivegroundsforconcernaboutefficiencyandequityinthesocialpolicysystem.

Thefirstpartofthechaptersummarizesthetypesandextentofpoverty.Nextthereisaninvestigationintotherolewelfareprogrammes(socialinsurance,familyaid,financialsupport)actuallyplayinthereductionofpoverty:thepatternsofincidenceofsocialprogrammesareexaminedfollowedbyanattempttoseeiftherearegroupsneglectedbythewelfaresystem.

TheHungarianHouseholdPanelData

Theanalysesrelyonthe1993waveoftheHungarianHouseholdPanel(HHP),alongitudinalstudyofincomes,wealthandlabourmarketpositionsofHungarianhouseholds.TheHHPisajointexcerciseof

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TÁRKI,theDepartmentofSociologyattheBudapestUniversityofEconomicSciencesandtheCentralStatisticalOfficewithTÁRKIresponsibleforfieldwork,documentationandreleaseofthedata.Thefirstwaveoccuredinthespringof1992andthesecondwaveofdata,usedhere,wascollectedinAprilMay1993.Theinitialsamplewasafour-stagestratifiedsamplefromthe1990census.Inthefirstwave2,059householdswerequestioned,whilesome1,931werequestionedinthesecondwaveaverylowdrop-outrateincomparisontootherpanels.However,sincethedrop-outwasnotentirelyrandom,itwasnecessarytoweightdatafromthesecondwave,resultingin2,157weightedcases.

Thepoverty-relatedvariablesarecomposedofanswerstoblocksofquestionsaboutincomesofpersonsandhouseholds.Povertycanalsobemeasuredwithvariablesotherthanincome.InthisperiodoftransitioninHungaryanapproachtopovertyanalysingconsumptionandbelongingsmightbejustifiedtosiftoutuncertaintiesarisinginasimplemeasurementofpoorfamilies'incomes.However,consumptiondatawouldbeoflimiteduse:whileincomereflectsthepossibilityforconsumption,actualconsumptionstyleisdeterminedbypersonalspendingpreferences.

Theincomesofhouseholdscanbecomparedinseveralways.Atoneextremehouseholdsarenotdistinguishedbysize.Thismethodignoresthefactthatfamilysizedeterminesboththeearningcapacityandconsumptionneedsofthehousehold.Theunderlyingassumptionisthathouseholdexpensesdonotchangewithfamilysize.Attheotherextreme,whenpercapitaincomesarecompared,theassumptionisthatcostsoflivingriseinadirectproportiontofamilysize.Bothmethodsareusedintheliteratureonincomeinequalities.Amethodbetweenthesetwoextremesreflectsrealitybest.

Theunderlyingassumptionbehindequivalentincomesisthata

growthinfamilysizemeansanon-lineargrowthincostsofliving.Equivalencescalesassignaweighttoindividualhouseholdmemberswhichtakeseconomiesofscaleintoaccount.Toputitmoreformallyafamily'sincomeisequivalenttothatofasingle-personhouseholdifJ=h/N,whereJrepresentstheincomeofasingle-personhousehold,hrepresentsthetotalincomeofthehouseholdinquestion,andNisaco-efficientindicatingdifferingneedsdependingonfamilysize.Ithasbeenshownintheliteraturethattheco-efficientexpressingfamilyneedscanbeexpressedbytheformulaN=Se,whereSequalsthefamily(household)size,whileerepresentstheelasticityofneedstounitsize(Buchmanetal.:1988,Förster,1993).Inthisstudyweightedhouseholdincomesare

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used.Consumptionweightsareassignedtotherespectivehouseholdmemberswiththefirstpersoninthehouseholdbeingassignedaweightof1,thesecondpersonaweightof0.7andthethirdandsubsequentpersonsaweightof0.5.Theseweightswereestimatedwiththevaluee=0.73.

WhoisPoor?

ThechartingofthecompositionofabsolutepovertybasedondatafromtheHungarianHouseholdPanelwascarriedoutbyKolosiandSik(1992),whilethechartingofrelativepovertywasinitiallycarriedoutbyRudolfAndorka(Andorka,1992;AndorkaandSpéder,1993a,1993b).Amorerecentanalysistookadetailedlookatthecompositionofpovertyusingthreedifferentequivalencescalesandfourdefinitionsofpoverty(Tóth,etal.,1994).

Table8.1displaystherisksoffallingintopovertybyhouseholdsandtheirmembersinthedatagivenbytheethnicaffiliationoftheheadofhousehold,hisoccupationalstatus,levelofeducation,age,sizeofhousehold,homelocationandnumberofchildrenundertheageof18.Thetablecontainsthecellfrequenciesofninecross-tablesindecreasingorder.Thiscompactpresentationallowsforadirectcomparisonofpovertyriskssharedbypeopleinthevarioushouseholdcategories.

Fivegeneralpointscanbedrawnfromthistable.First,gypsyfamiliesareseriouslyaffectedbypoverty.Sixty-ninepercentofallgypsyhouseholdsarepoorandsome72percentofthoselivinginfamiliesinwhichtheheadoffamilyisagypsyarepoor.Amoredetailedanalysisshowsthatthemorerestrictivethedefinitionofpovertyused,thehigherthepercentageofgypsyhouseholdswhofallintothepoorcategory.Longitudinalanalysishasalsoshownthatgypsieshavelittlechanceofescapingfrompoverty.

Second,demographicaldeterminantsofpovertyareimportant.Povertyratesarehigheramonghouseholdswithatleastthreechildreniftheheadofhouseholdisunder40yearsofage,orwithinasingle-parenthousehold.Differencesbetweenvarioushouseholdtypesaresmallerforagecategoriesbetween40and60years.Finally,householdsheadedbyapersonover60aregreatlyatriskofbeingimpoverishediftheolderpersonlivesalone.Thelowerwegointheincomehierarchy,thegreaterthenumberoffamilieswithfourormorechildrenandofsingle-childfamilies,and,atleastpartiallyinconsequence,thegreaterthenumberofpeoplefromthree-personorfive-ormorepersonhouseholds.

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Table8.1:PovertyratebyhouseholdcharacteristicsPersonsinpoverty

% N(thousands)Gypsy 72.4 389Notgypsy 15.0 1,470Unemployed 47.0 354Notunemployed 16.2 1,520Education:

Lessthanprimary 41.6 486Primary 31.5 710Vocatinal 16.0 550Secondary 8.4 179Tertiary 3.0 40

HouseholdheadPensioner 41.1Male 16.1 1,311Female 27.0 374Lonemale 17.1 35Lonefemale 40.6 239Loneparent 37.0 198

Age<30 24.3 2063039 19.3 5284049 19.0 4835059 15.4 27260+ 19.3 472

NumberofchildrenNone 16.6 719One 18.2 421Two 16.3 426Three 24.8 189Four+ 67.2 208

HouseholdsizeNuclearfamily 15.6 277

One 34.4 277Two 15.5 325Three 14.0 309Four 16.9 505Five+ 24.4 542

Placeofresidencevillage 23.7 958City 18.7 558Cheiftownincounty 18.7 271Detachedhouse 22.9 28Budapest 8.3 142

Source:HungarianHouseholdPanel,19923

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Youngerheadsofhouseholdsarealsooverrepresentedinthelowerpovertystrata.

Third,peoplewithalower-leveleducation,andthoselivinginruralareas,areespeciallyvulnerabletotherisksofpoverty.Thoselivinginisolatedfarmhouses,orinhomeswheretheheadoffamilyispoorlyeducated(withfewerthaneightprimaryschoolyears),aretwiceaslikelyastheaveragetobepoor.Inaddition,thelowerthelevelofincomeusedasthepovertythreshold,themoreatriskthesegroupsbecome.

Fourth,thelabourmarketplaysanimportantroleinthedeterminationofpoverty.Thoselivinginhouseholdswithanunemployedheadruntwicetheriskofbeingpoorastheaverage.However,itisnotprimarilythegroupofthetemporarilyunemployedwhichisthreatenedbypermanentorlong-termimpoverishment;theyhaveonlytemporarydifficultiesinmakingendsmeet.Rather,thosewhohavebeenpermanentlydrivenoutofthelabourmarketandwhoarenotyeteligibleforpensionsorothersocialsecuritybenefitsaretrulyintrouble.

Finally,themagnitudeofpovertyrisksrunbyvarioussocialgroupsisonlyoneaspectofthepovertyprofile.Fromasocialpolicypointofview,theactualsizeofthegroupsconcerneddeterminesthepotentialclienteleandtheelectoralbaseforwelfareprogrammes.Thenumberofpoorpersonslivinginhouseholdswheretheheadisemployed,notagypsy,andisnotawomanisgreaterthanthenumberofpersonslivinginhouseholdswithanunemployedhead,agypsypersonorafemale.Thosewithalowerpercentageinpovertymayrepresentagreaternumberofthepoor.Forinstance,agreatnumberofgypsiesarepoor,butthemajorityofthepoorarenotgypsies.Similarly,althoughagreatnumberoftheunemployedarepoor,themajorityofthepoorareinhouseholdswithanemployedheadofhousehold.

SocialPolicySupportProgrammes

ThecashredistributionprogrammesofHungary'ssocialsystemhavethreecategories.Thefirstgroupismadeupofprovisionsreplacingearningswithbenefitsrelatedtoearnings.Eligibilitycriteriaaretiedtoemploymentstatus;aconditionofthepaymentofearnings-relatedbenefitsisthattherecipientshouldhaveaprioremploymentrecordandhavemadesocialsecuritycontributions.Contributionsandbenefitsaretiedtopreviouswagesthroughaformula.Pensions,sickpay,unemploymentbenefitsandmaternityfeesarethemajorbenefitsinthiscategory.

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Thesecondcategoryofbenefitsguaranteesabasicincome.Eligibilitycriteriaarenotattachedtoemploymentstatusandtheamountofthebenefitisnotlinkedtoincomeorpriorearnings.Thebenefitapplicantneedonlymeetdemographiccriteriatobeeligibleforthebenefit.Thebestexamplesarefamilyallowanceandmaternityallowance.Thethirdgroupcomprisesbenefitsgrantedsolelytothosewithlowincomes.Assistancepaymentsaredesignedspecificallytoalleviatepoverty,andgrantedonthebasisofameanstest.

Howdomacrosocialexpenditurestrickledowntoindividualhouseholds?Inparticular,howdomacrodatalookfromaworm's-eyeviewofindividualfamilies'incomestructure?Whatsortofsocialdifferencescanbefoundbehindthediversityofincomestructures?Howwelltargetedarecashbenefitprogrammes?

Therearefivemajorsourcesofincome.Thefirstgroupiscalledmarketincome.Earningsandcashpropertyincomebelongtothisgroup.Personalincomefrommainjobs(wages,overtimepayments,benefitsinkind,costallowances),personalincomefromallothersecondaryjobsandhouseholdincomearisingfromsmall-scaleagriculturalproductionalsofitintothiscategory.Profitsanddividendincomemakeupcashpropertyincome.Inthiscasethereturnsgainedfromaninvestmentofcapitalcontributetothetotalincomeofahousehold.

2Earnings-relatedsocialsecuritybenefits(pensions,sick-leavebenefits,unemploymentbenefits,andmaternityallowanceswiththeexceptionofthechildcareallowance)belongtothesecondgroup.Non-insurance-typepublicsocialtransfersmakeupthethirdgroup.Someofthese,thefamilyallowanceforexample,areindependentoftheirrecipient'sincomes,whileothersaremeanstested(suchasregularandoccasionalsocialassistancebenefits).Thefourthgroupcomprisesinter-householdtransferssuchasalimony,cashhelp

betweenfamiliesandothers.3Thefifthtypeofincomeincludesmiscellaneousotherearnings.

TheDistributionalPatternsofWelfarePayments

Thegrowthinsocialexpenditurewasprofoundinthelastdecade.Inthebeginningofthe1980sHungary'ssocialexpenditureshareinGDPrankedamongthelessdevelopedOECDcountries.Duetopoliticaldecisionsandalsotoagreatextenttothetransformationalrecessionwhichthecountryexperiencedinthelastfiveyears,thesocialexpendi-

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tureshareofthenationalproducthasgrowntoalevelequaltothehighestspendersintheOECD,and(Andorkaetal.,1994;Tóth,1994)cashsocialtransfersdisproportionatelyincreasedtheirshare.TheIncidenceStudycommissionedbytheWorldBankprovidedaincisiveanalysisintotheincidenceofsocialtransfersattheendofthe1980s(KSH,1990a).

Theincidenceofcashsocialtransfers

Ajudgementofthedistributionaleffectsofvarioustypesofincomeandsocialbenefitsstronglydependsonhowhouseholdincomesaremeasured.Variationsinpovertyratesareverysensitivetotheincomemeasurementconceptused(FörsterandTóth,1993,1994;Tóthetal.,1994).Weuseanequivalencescalewitha0.73elasticitytoexaminethecompositionofincome.

Ingeneral,therehasbeenasignificantgrowthintheshareofsocialincomeasaresultofthetransitionprocess.Theproportionofhouseholdswithnomarketincomeatallisfairlyhigh,alittlemorethan20percentofthetotalsample.Three-quartersofthesehouseholdsareheadedbysomeoneover60yearsofage,andmorethanhalfcontainmorethantwopeople.About94percentofhouseholdswithnomarketincomereceivesomesortofsocialinsurance,some20percentreceivesomeformofpublicsocialtransfers,andwithinthisfifthonly9.4percentreceivesocialassistance.

Theproportionofhouseholdsenjoyingearnings-relatedsocialinsurancebenefitsisalmostashighastheratioofmarketincomerecipients(74.8percent).Morethanhalfofsuchhouseholdsreceivesomesortofpension(old-agepension,disabilitypension,widow'spension).About13percentofallhouseholdsreceivedunemploymentbenefitsin1992-3.Thisrepresentedanincreaseoverpastyearsastheunemploymentratehasriseninthemeantime;10percentof

householdsreceivedunemploymentbenefitsin1991-2.Another10percentreceivedmaternityallowances.Approximatelyone-thirdofhouseholdsreceivefamilyallowancesforatleastonechild,whereasonlyatenthisreceivingsocialassistance.

Overall,thewideinequalitiesinprimaryearnings(thereisatwenty-folddifferencebetweentheearningsinthetopdecileandearningsinthebottomdecile)aresignificantlyreducedbysocialincomes(theratiobetweenthetotalhouseholdincomesoftheupperandlowerdecilesis6.3).Nonetheless,thedistributionofvarioussocialincomesbetweendecilesshowsdifferentpatterns(Table8.2).Ingeneral,alargerproportion

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Table8.2:Declinesharesoftypesofincome1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

(rowpercentage)a

Marketincometotal 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.8 6.1 8.1 11.0 13.7 18.3 30.9earnings 1.5 2.5 3.2 4.9 6.2 8.2 11.1 13.8 18.5 30.0cashpropertyincomes 0.9 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 4.3 5.2 6.7 6.3 74.1

Socialinsurancebenefits 6.9 9.0 10.3 11.4 12.3 11.5 10.6 10.9 8.8 8.3pensions 5.6 8.7 10.4 11.7 13.1 11.9 10.2 11.1 8.5 8.9unemploymentbenefits

18.5 13.2 10.1 10.3 8.9 10.4 11.4 9.3 4.7 3.1

maternitysupport 9.5 7.9 13.2 11.8 9.8 11.4 11.9 11.3 10.4 2.8Publicsocialtransfers 10.5 9.2 10.2 8.9 9.1 12.2 10.4 11.2 9.4 9.0socialassistance 16.8 13.5 7.4 8.4 6.9 12.7 15.3 7.5 8.1 3.5familyallowance 9.3 7.7 9.6 9.6 9.5 12.9 11.1 12.3 9.8 8.1

Inter-householdtransfers

7.6 13.3 9.0 9.9 7.6 7.4 14.6 8.4 10.7 11.5

Otherhouseholdincome 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.4 5.0 5.7 3.7 15.0 59.8(Totalhouseholdincome)

(3.7) (4.9) (5.7)(7.0)(8.0)(9.3)(10.7)(12.3)(14.80(23.6)

aBasedontotalequivalenthouseholdincomes.Cellsshowreceivedincome/benefitofthegiventypeinthegivendecileasapercentageofthetotalbenefit/incomeofthattypeinthesampleSource:HungarianHouseholdPanel,1992-3

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ofsocialinsurancebenefitpaymentsreachesthemiddledecilesthanthelowerdeciles.Thelowestdecileenjoys5.6percentofpensions,whilethefifthdecilereceives13percentofpensions.Similarly,butlessstrikingly,maternitybenefitstendtobenefitthemiddledeciles.

Thedistributionofsocialincomewouldbetargetedifthelowestdecilesweretoreceivethelargestproportionofthebenefit.Ascanbeseenfromthedata,thisisnotthecase.Familyallowanceisgrantedtothesixthandeighthdeciletoahigherdegreethantoanyotherdecile.Thedistributionofsocialassistanceisalsothoughtprovoking.Thelowestdecileenjoys17percentofallsocialassistance,butaratherhighproportionofaidisgrantedtothesixthandseventhdeciles.Unemploymentbenefits,however,seemtobesomewhatbettertargeted.

Theprecedingtablesshowdeciledistributionswheretherankingofhouseholdsisbasedonallhouseholdincome(includingcashsocialbenefits).However,sometimesthisrankingmightnotbeappropriate.Inwhatfollowsitisassumedthatoriginal,orprimary,incomeinequalitiesaredeterminedbyincomedifferencesgeneratedbymarketforces.Socialredistributionprogrammesessentiallymodifythisoriginalinequalityinonewayoranother.

InTable8.3,block1representsthedistributionofvarioustypesofpensionsamongthehouseholdquintilesthatweredefinedonthebasisof(adjusted)marketincomes.Thelowerahousehold'smarketincomeis,thehighertheproportionofthosehouseholdsreceivingsomesortofpension.Sixty-eightpercentofhouseholdsfromthelowestmarketincomequintile,and16percentofhouseholdsfromthehighestquintile,receivesomesortofpension.Withinthisdistribution,theincidenceofretirement,disabilityandotherpensions(e.g.widow'spension)differs.Theproportionofthosepeoplereceivinganold-agepensionishigherinthesecondquintilethaninallothers.Thirty-four

percentofhouseholdsreceivinganoldagepension,20percentofthosereceivingdisabilitypensions,andsome36percentofthosereceivingsomeotherformofpension,belongtothelowestquintile.Thedistributionalpatternofpensionstakesthisformbecausethefunctionofpensionsistoreplaceearliermarketincomes,and,consequently,theresultoforderinghouseholdsbymarketincomesisthatrelativelymoreoftheretiredfallintothelowestquintile,despitethefactthatbasedontheirtotalincome(whichalsoincludepensions)theydonotrankamongthepoor.

Familyallowancesaredesignedtofulfiladifferentfunction.Theaimoftheseallowancesistosupporthouseholdsofworkingagewithchildren.Peopleofworkingagegenerallyhavemarketincomesandalso

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Table8.3:IncidenceofsocialtransfersQuintiles

1 2 3 4 5 (Total)PensionsOldage

percentinthequintileac 68.156.336.622.715.9 (40.0)percentreceivingpensions 34.128.218.311.4 8.0(100.0)

Disabilitypercentinthequintileac 11.917.413.5 9.9 5.6 (11.6)percentreceivingdisabilitypensions 20.429.823.217.0 9.6(100.0)

Otherpercentinthequintileac 13.4 8.8 7.2 4.6 3.3 (7.5)otherpensions 35.923.619.312.3 8.8(100.0)

FamilyallowancesUnemploymentbenefits

percentinthequintilebc 35.223.719.612.8 6.0 (19.5)percentreceivingunemploymentbenefits

36.224.420.113.2 6.2(100.0)

Maternityfeepercentinthequintilebc 13.615.6 9.6 5.3 0.0 (8.8)percentreceivingmaternityfee 30.835.421.812.0 0.0(100.0)

Meternityallowancepercentinthequintilebc 10.021.210.8 3.6 0.8 (9.3)percentreceivingmaternityallowance

21.645.723.3 7.8 1.7(100.0)

Familyallowancepercentinthequintilebc 46.561.464.648.327.7 (49.7)percentreceivingfamilyallowance 18.724.7 2619.411.1(100.0)

SocialAssistancepercentinthequintilead 24.510.2 6.5 4.6 5.4 (10.2)percentreceivingsocialassistance 47.919.912.7 9.010.5(100.0)

atotalhouseholds;bactivehouseholds;cequivalentmarketincome;dtotalequivalenthouseholdincomesupportSource:HungarianHouseholdPanel,1992-3

receivesocialsupportwhichsupplementtheirincome.Therefore,inthesecondblockofTable8.3.,thedistributionalpatternsoffamilyallowancesaredisplayedwithq1uintilesofhouseholdsofactiveageheadrankedonthebasisoftheirequivalentmarketincomes.Almosthalfofalltheactiveagedhouseholdsenjoyafamilyallowance.Mosthouseholdswhichreceiveafamilyallowancecanbefoundinthemiddlequintile.Thedistributionalpatternoffamilyallowanceshasabell-shapedpattern,thoughitisabitskewedtowardsthelowerincomes.The

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maternityfeeandthematernityallowanceseemsbetterdirectedatthosewithlowerincomes.

Withunemploymentbenefits,likefamilyallowances,therankingofactiveagehouseholdsbasedonmarketincomeseemstobeappropriate.Hereitappearsthattheunemploymentbenefitisrelativelystronglytargetedtowardsthepoorsincetheproportionofhouseholdsreceivingthistypeofbenefitstronglydecreaseswiththeriseof(adjusted)marketincomes.Approximately60percentofallhouseholdsreceivingunemploymentbenefitsbelongtothelowesttwoquintiles.

Thefunctionofsocialassistanceistosupplementthetotalhouseholdincomeifitisnotsufficienttoprovidesubsistence,irrespectiveofage,numberofpeoplelivinginthehouseholdorthehouseholder'sjobstatus.Therefore,therankingofallhouseholdsaccordingtopre-assistance(adjusted)householdincomeisappropriate(Table8.3,block3).Allinall,some10percentofhouseholdsreceivemeans-testedassistance.However,thisassistancedoesnotprimarilyreachthosewiththelowestincomes.About24percentofthelowestquintilereceivesomesortofaid,andapproximately10percentofthesecondquintilereceivesuchhelp.Morethanhalfofallhouseholdsreceivingsuchassistancepaymentscannotbeclassifiedaspoorifthepovertythresholdisdefinedwithanincomeequallingtheupperbreakpointofthelowestquintile.

Theincomecompositionofvarioussocialpolicytargetgroups

Benefitsarisingfromsocialredistributionsocialinsuranceprogrammesandothersocialaidaccountfornearly40percentofannualtotalhouseholdincomeinHungary.Marketincomes,however,barelyexceedhalfofallhouseholdincome(56percent).However,theincomecompositionofsocialpolicytargetgroupsmightbequitedifferentfromtheoverallaverage.

Thesetofsocialgroupstobetargetedbysocialpoliciesisamatterforpoliticaldebate.InTable8.4,theincomecompositionoffourvulnerablesocialgroupsisexamined.Oldhouseholdswerethoseinwhichtheheadofhouseholdisabovetheretirementage.Thispopulationdoesnotexactlymatchthepensionerpopulationsincethereareanumberofoldpeoplewhoreceivenoretirementbenefits,andlargenumbersofpensionersundertheagelimit.UnemployedhouseholdsweredefinedasthoseinwhichtheheadofhouseholdmettheILOdefinitionofunemployment.Largefamiliesweredefinedasfamilieswiththreeor

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Table8.4:IncomecompositionofsocialpolicytargetgroupsHouseholdtypes

ElderlycUnemployedbLargecPoord(Columnpercentages)

Marketincome 20.1 45.5 53.6 22.9Earnings 19.2 45.4 49.9 22.8Cashpropertyincome 0.9 0.1 3.7 0.1

Socialinsurancebenefits 73.1 33.7 14.8 61.6Pensions 71.8 12.3 3.8 51.2Unemploymentbenefits 0.6 16.4 4.4 6.5Maternitysupport 0.2 2.7 5.2 2.5

Publicsocialtransfers 1.2 15.8 26.7 13.1Familyallowance 0.5 8.3 23.7 2.4Socialassistance 0.5 1.4 2.0 7.8

Privatetransfers 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.9Otherhouseholdincome 5.2 4.0 4.0 1.5

(N) (728) (145) (97) (432)ahouseholdheadisabovetheretirementage(women55;men60)bheadofhouseholdisunemployed(accordingtoILO'sdefinition)cthreeormorechildrenundertheageof18dbyitstotal(equivalent)income,householdinthebottomquintileSource:FörsterandTóth,1993

morechildrenundertheageof18.Finally,poorhouseholdsweredefinedasallthosebelongingtothelowestquintile.

Adeterminantoftheincomesoftheaverageoldhouseholdprovedtobethepension,approximately73percentofincome.Withunemployedhouseholdstheproportionofearningsisrelativelyhigh,45percent.Onaveragethisproportionissignificantlyhigherthaninpoorandoldfamilies,butlowerthaninlargefamilieswhereitreaches

53.6percent.Theincomestructureofpoorhouseholdsissurprising.Welfare,namelyallowanceswhicharespecificallysupposedtohelpthepoor,thosewhomostneedthehelp,onlyaccountsfor8percentoftheirtotalincome.

Therolesocialsupportplaysinthereductionofpoverty

Table8.5showsthedistributionofhouseholdsamongquintilesbasedon(adjusted)marketincome.Iftherewerenonon-marketredistribution,thehouseholdswouldallbeinthediagonalofthematrix;non-marketincomeshiftsthecellfrequenciesfromthediagonal.Thefirstrowofthe

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Table8.5:Marketincomequintilesbytheirhouseholdincomequintile

Quintilesbasedontotal(adjusted)householdincomes

Marketincome92-3

1 2 3 4 5

Adjusted1Quantile

43.1 27.9 16.8 8.9 3.3

2 37.6 31.9 21.1 6.3 3.23 14.6 28.4 32.4 20.1 4.44 3.0 9.1 24.2 44.9 18.85 1.9 2.6 5.8 19.4 70.2

tableisthemostsignificant.About43percentofthosewhobelongtothelowestquintileaccordingtotheirmarketincomebelongtothecategoryofthepoor(thelowestquintile,basedonalltypesofhouseholdincome).Withnon-marketincomethemajorityareaidedtosuchadegreeastobelongtoquintiles25.Pensionsunambiguouslyarethegreatestcauseofthis.

Letusnowmovetothesocialcompositionofthelowestincomegroups.Post-transferaredefinedastheproportionfromagivenpopulationgroupwhobelongtothelowestquintilebasedontotal(adjusted)householdincome,whilepre-transferbelongtothelowestquintileof(adjusted)marketincome.Thedifferencesbetweentheseratesreflectthechangesinrankingofhouseholdsasaresultofintroducingnon-marketincome.Ifonlymarketincomeexisted,thentherelativeriskoffallingintopovertythreateningthefollowingsocialgroupswouldsignificantlyincrease(cf.Table8.6):homeswheretheheadofhouseholdisabove60yearsofage;childlesshouseholds;homesinwhichtheheadofhouseholdisnotunemployed;singlehouseholds;thosewithhighereducationlevels;andhouseholdsinBudapestandothercities.Non-marketredistributiondecreasesthe

riskoffallingintopovertyforthesegroupstothehighestdegree.

Letusnowmakeacounterfactualexperiment.Letusfixthepovertythresholdattheleveloftheupperbreakpointofthelowestquintileofall(equivalent)householdincomesandthenletusexaminehowthepovertyratesofvariousgroupstargetedbysocialpolicieswouldbeaffectedifsocialpolicybenefitsdesignedforthemwereremoved.Table8.7showsthatwithoutpensionstheriskoffallingintopovertyrunbyfamilieswheretheheadofhouseholdisabovetheretirementagewouldincreaseto88percent,comparedwiththepresent24percent.Moreover,81percentofthesepeoplewouldalsofallunderhalfofthemedianincome.Simultaneously,removingpensionswouldalsosignificantlyincreasethe

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Table8.6:Ratiobottomquintilemarketincomes(pre-transferpovertyrates)andtotalhouseholdincomes(post-transferpovertyrates)a

Householdsize1 2 3 4 5+

Pre-transferb

47.1 25.9 10.0 2.8 6.1

Post-transferc

34.4 15.5 14.0 16.9 24.4

Ageofheadofhousehold>30 3040 4050 5060 60+

Pre-transfer

7.0 7.4 5.5 12.6 42.3

Post-transferc

24.3 19.3 19.0 15.4 19.3

Numberofchildren0 1 2 3 4+

Pre-transfer

30.0 5.8 2.8 10.0 27.0

Post-transferc

16.6 18.2 16.3 24.8 67.2

Occupationalstatusofheademployedhead unemployedhead

Pre-transfer

19.7 24.1

Post-transferc

16.2 47.0

Householdstypes

singlemalesinglefemale

male-headed

female-headed

singlepensioner

Pre-transfer

37.1 50.8 12.1 19.1 59.1

Post-transferc

17.1 40.6 16.1 27.0 41.1

Educationoftheheadlessthan

primary primary vocationalhighschool universityPre-transfer

39.4 25.5 12.7 14.8 13.1

Post-transferc

41.6 31.5 16.0 8.4 3.0

Typeofsettlementdetachedhouse village city

countycapital Budapest

Pre-transfer

23.7 14.9 20.4 23.3 27.2

Post-transfer

22.9 23.7 18.7 18.7 8.3

aThehouseholdincomeisweightedbynumberofhouseholdmembers,e=0.73bPre-transfer:thepercentageinthelowestquintileasdefinedbymarketincomecPost-transfer:thepercentageinthelowestquintileasdefinedbythehousehold'stotalequivalentincomesSource:HungarianHouseholdPanel,1992-3

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Table8.7:Household-specificpovertyratesPovertyratesatotalincome

totalincomesminusbenefits

HeadofhouseholdAboveretirementage 24.2 87.9Belowretirementage 17.6 26.9

No.ofchildrenunder18inhousehold1 19.3 27.52 16.4 29.53 25.6 51.64 65.2 86.9

OccupationalstatusofhouseholdheadNotunemployed 18.2 19.9Unemployed 41.0 50.7

IncomepositionofthehouseholdBottomquintile 20.0 20.6

athousehouseholdsaredefinedtobepoor.wherethehouseholdhasanincomelessthentheuppenbreakpointofthelowestquintile,basedontotal(equivalent)householdincomesSource:HuyngarianHouseholdPanel,19923

povertyriskrunbyhouseholdswheretheheadoffamilyisundertheolderagelimitfrom18percentto27percent.Theshareofpensionsintotalhouseholdincomesaswehaveseenitearlierisabove70percentinelderlyhouseholds,andevenhigherinthecaseofsinglepensionersandretiredcouples.Therefore,thereduction,(adabsurdum:thecessation)ofpensionswouldimmediatelypushthesepeopleintoabsolutepoverty,asitwouldleadtoatotallackofincomeinthemajorityofcases.Theriskthattheminorityofpensionerswhoearnmarketincomes,orliveinhouseholdswithatleastoneactive

wageearner,wouldfallintopovertyissmaller.

Thepovertyriskrunbyfamilieswithanumberofchildrenwouldalsosignificantlyincreaseiftherewere(adabsurdum)absolutelynoformoffamilyallowance,butthisriskwouldbeaffectedbythenumberofchildren.Thepovertyrateofhouseholdswithonechildwouldincreasefrom19percentto27percent,whilethepovertyratesofhouseholdswithtwochildrenwouldgrowfrom16percentto26percent.Thepovertyrateoffamilieswiththreechildrenwoulddoublefrom26percentto52percent,andthealreadyhighpovertyrateoffamilieswithfourormorechildrenwouldincreasetoanevengreaterdegree.These

Page143

datashowthatalthoughthefamilyallowancetendstobenefitthemiddleincomegroups,anerosionofthefamilyallowancewouldhaveagreatereffectonthosewhoseincomestatusislower.Consequently,theeffectivenessofthefamilyallowanceasanincomesupportprogrammecouldbeincreasedbymakingitmoredependentonthenumberofchildren,andbymakingthenetfamilyallowancedependonincomebytaxingit.

Therepealoftheunemploymentbenefitandsocialsupportwouldleadtolessdramaticeffects.Thesearethetypesofincomethatcontributeleasttothealleviationofpovertyoftherespectivesocialgroups.Thepovertyriskrunbyhouseholdswherethehouseholdheadisunemployedwouldincreasebyapproximately25percent,from40percentto51percent.Thus,halfofthehouseholdsheadedbyanunemployedindividualwouldnotsinkintodestitutioneveniftheunemploymentbenefitwerecompletelyeliminated.Therepealofsocialassistancebenefitwerewouldhavelittleimpactonthepovertyriskofthepopulationasawhole,whilecausingagraveproblemforthepoorestofthepoor.Cessationwouldsignificantlyharmthosewhoarealreadyimpoverished,aswellasdecreasingtheincomeofpoorhouseholdslivingabovetherecentlyfixedabsolutepovertylevel.

PovertyinHungaryisdeterminedbyanumberofsocialfactors.Ethnicaffiliation,stageinthedemographiclifecycle,lostlabourmarketattachments,lowereducation,loweroccupationalstatusandgeographiclocationallplayanessentialpartinimpoverishment.Socialtransfersplayanimportantroleindecreasingtheorderofpovertyandareconsequentlyneeded.Atthesametime,however,asignificantpartofsocialpolicybenefitsdonotfavourpoorpeople,butinsteadfavourthenon-poorandbetteroff.

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Notes

1Thisstudyisarevised,shortenedversionoftheresearchreportsubmittedtotheActiveSocietyFoundation(AktívTársadalomAlapítvány),sponsoredbytheSOCOProgramofIWM,Vienna.AnearlierversioninKovács,ed.(1996).

2Intheoryincomefromthesaleofpropertyorpossessionsshouldfitintothisgroup,but,sincesellinganassetinoneyearmaybefollowedbybuyinganotheroneinanotheryear,hugeuncertaintiesarisefortheamountofnetincome.Sothesetypesofincomeareexcludedfromthepresentanalysis.

3TheHungarianHouseholdPanelquestionnaireasksaboutnetincomes,thewageactuallytakenhomebyaheadofhousehold.Exceptionshereareincomesbroughtinbythewholeofthefamily(forexample,incomefromthesaleofagriculturalproductsraisedonasmallscalebythehousehold).Thisformofincomedoesnotcauseagreatdistortionindata:incomefromsmall-scaleagriculturalproduction,forexample,enjoyssuchgreattaxallowancesthattheoverwhelmingmajoritycanberegardedasnetincome.

References

Andorka,Rudolf,1992.Szegénység[Poverty].InSikandTóth(1992).

Andorka,RudolfandSpéder,Zsolt,1993a.Szegénység[Poverty].InSikandTóth,(1993).

Andorka,RudolfandSpéder,Zsolt,1993b.PovertyinHungary.SomeResultsoftheFirstTwoWavesoftheHungarianHouseholdPanelSurveyin1992and1993,Berlin:October.

Andorka,RudolfandTóth,IstvánGyörgy,1992.Aszociáliskiadások

ésaszociálpolitikaMagyarországon[SocialExpendituresandSocialPolicyinHungary].InR.Andorka,T.KolosiandGy.Vukovich,eds.,TársadalmiRiport1992[SocialReport1992]Budapest:TÁRKI.

Andorka,Rudolf,Kondratas,AnnaandTóth,IstvánGyörgy,1994.TheHungarianWelfareStateinTransition:Structure,DevelopmentsandFirstStepstowardsReform.TheJointHungarianInternationalBlueRibbonCommissionPolicyStudyNo3.Washington,DC:HudsonInstitute.

Buchman,B.,Rainwater,L.,Schmaus,G.andSmeeding,T.,1988.EquivalenceScales,WellandBeing,InequalityandPoverty:SensitivityEstimatesAcrossTenCountriesUsingtheLISDatabase.ReviewofIncomeandWealth,34,115-42.

Förster,MichaelandTóth,IstvánGyörgy,1993.Aháztartásokjövedelmiszerkezeteésaszociálisújraelosztás[Theincomestructureofhouseholdsandthesocialredistribution]InSikandTóth(1993).

Förster,MichaelandTóth,IstvánGyörgy,1994.IncomePovertyandHouseholds'IncomeCompositioninHungary.PaperpreparedfortheThird

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PragueInternationalWorkshoponSocialResponsestoTransfromationsinEastandCentralEurope,6and8May1994,Prague.

Förster,MichaelF.,1993.ComparingPovertyin13OECDCountries:TraditionalandSyntheticApproaches,LuxemburgIncomeStudyWorkingPaperNo100.

Kessides,C.,Davey,K.,Micklewright,J.,Smith,A.andHinayon,C.,1991.Hungary:ReformoftheSocialPolicyandDistributionSystem.TheWorldBank,draft,February.

Kolosi,TamásandSik,Endre.,1992.Munkaeropiac

*ésjövedelmek[LabourMarketandIncomes].InSik,andTóth(1992).

Kolosi,Tamás,1993.Anépességkövetése[FollowingtheSample]InSikandTóth,(1993).

Kolosi,Tamás,Szivós,PéterandBedekovics,István,1993.Munkaeropiacésjövedelmek[LabourMarketandIncomes]inSikandTóth,(1993).

Kopits,G.,Holzmann,R.,Schieber,G.andSidgwick,E.,1990.SocialSecurityReforminHungary.WashingtonDC:IMF.

Kornai,János,1993TranszformációsvisszaesésEgyáltalánosjelenségvizsgálataamagyarfejlodes*példáján[TransformationalRecession.AStudyofaGeneralPhenomenonintheCaseofHungary].KözgazdaságiSzemle,7and8.,sz.569and599.

KSH,1990a.IncidenceStudy,'90TheHungarianSocialPolicySystemsandDistributionofIncomesofHouseholds.PaperpreparedbyanexpertteamoftheMinistryofFinanceandoftheCentral

StatisticalOffice,Budapest,mimeo.KSH,1990b.Atermészetbenitársadalmijövedelmekésadotációkrétegeloszlása1989-ben[TheIncidenceofSocialTransfersandSubsidiesinHungary,1989].Budapest.

KSH,1993.Alétminimumszintjénésalattelo*nepesseg*jellemzo*.[CharacteristicsofthePopulationLivingfromIncomesBelowSubsistenceMinimum].Budapest.

Sik,EndreandTóth,IstvánGyörgy(eds.)1992.JelentésaMagyarHáztartásPanelI.hullámánakeredmenyeirol*[AReportontheResultsoftheFirstWaveoftheHungarianHouseholdPanel].Budapest:MagyarHáztartásPanelMuhelytanulmanyok*1.számBKESzociológiaTanszékandTársadalomkutatásiInformatikaiEgyesülés,December.

Sik,EndreandTóth,IstvánGyörgy.(eds),1993.EgyévutánJelentésaMagyarHáztartásPanelII.hullámánakeredményeialapján[AyearafterAReportontheResultsoftheFirstWaveoftheHungarianHouseholdPanel].Budapest:MagyarHáztartásPanelMuhelytanulmányok3.számBKESzociológiaTanszékandTársadalomkutatásiInformatikaiEgyesülés,December.

Tóth,IstvánGyörgy.1992.Aszociálisújraelosztásésaháztartásokjövedelmiszerkezete[SocialRedistributionandtheIncomeStructureofHungarianHouseholds].InSikandTóth(1992).

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Tóth,IstvánGyörgy,1994.Ajólétirendszerazátmenetidoszakaban

*[TheHungarianWelfareSysteminthePeriodofTransition].KözgazdaságiSzemle,április.

Tóth,IstvánGyörgy,Andorka,Rudolf,Förster,MichaelandSpéder,Zsolt,1994.Poverty,InequalitiesandtheIncidenceofSocialTransfersinHungary.PaperpreparedfortheBudapestWorldBankOffice,Budapest,June.

Tóth,IstvánGyörgy,1996.TheRoleofWelfareprogramsinalleviatingPovertyinHyngary.In:SocialcostsofeconomictransformationinCentralEurope.InternationalReviewofComparativePublicPolicyVol.7,125147.

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Chapter9DissatisfactionandAlienationRudolfAndorka

UNDERtheCommunistsystemfewsurveysincludedquestionsonsatisfaction,psychologicalwell-beingormanifestationsofanomieandalienation.Theofficialideologyclaimedthatevery,oralmostevery,memberofthesocietywassatisfied,enjoyingpsychologicalwell-being.Bydefinitionanomieandalienationwerenon-existentinaCommunistor,accordingtotheself-definitionoftherulingelite,Socialistsystem.Theincreasingrateofsuicideandalcoholisminthe1970sand1980sindicatedthattherewere,andare,seriousproblemsinthesedomains.

Ofthefewstudiespriorto1989thataddressedtheseissues,themostnotablewerethesurveybyHankissandco-authors(1978)concerninglifestyle,qualityoflifeandvalues,twosurveysonmentalhealthbyKoppandSkrabaski(1992)in1983and1988andsurveysoftheeconomicandpoliticalsystembytheDepartmentofSociologyoftheBudapestUniversityofEconomicSciences(Andorka,1990).Allthesestudiespointedtoahighlevelofdissatisfaction,seriousmentalhealthproblemsandwidespreadsymptomsofanomie,alienationandageneralcrisisofvaluesandnorms.

MorerecentlytherehavebeenattemptstoexaminesystematicallytheseaspectsofHungariansociety.TheHungarianHouseholdPanelsurveysin1992,1993and1994included,inadditiontothequestionsonhouseholdincomeandonemploymentofthehouseholdmembers,questionsonsatisfactionwithseveraldimensionsoftherespondent'spersonallife,onsymptomsofpsychologicalproblems,onthedeepermanifestationofanomieandalienationandin1994forthefirsttime

questionsonvalues.ThevaluequestionsweretheIngelhart(1977)post-materialist/materialist

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scale,whilealloftheothersweretakenfromthehouseholdpanelsurveysundertakeninEasternGermanysince1990(Habichetal.,1991;Noll,1994).Eachofthesedimensionswillbeconsideredinturn.

Satisfaction

TodayitisalmostatruismthatHungariansareverydissatisfiedwiththeirpresentlivingconditions.Manysurveyshavefoundsimilarlyhighlevelsofdissatisfaction.Table9.1showsthatthehighestaveragelevelsofdissatisfactionarewiththelevelofincomeandthecurrentstandardoflivingandfutureprospects.Thedissatisfiedaremorenumerousthanthosewhoaresatisfied.

Therearedifferencesinlevelsofsatisfactionbetweenmalesandfemales,youngandoldandthosewithlowandhighincomes.Intermsofgender,dissatisfactionishigheramongmenthanamongwomenforallofthedomainsexcepthealth.Middle-agedadultsaregenerallymoredissatisfiedwiththevariousdimensionsoftheirlifethantheyoungortheold.However,aswithgender,therelationshipbetweensatisfactionwithhealthandageissomewhatdifferent.Aspeopleagetheyreporthigherlevelsofdissatisfactionwiththeirpersonalhealth.Finally,dissatisfactionishigheramongthosebelongingtothelowestincomequintileandmuchloweramongthosebelongingtothehighestquintile,indicatingthatdissatisfactionis,indeed,correlatedwiththeobjectivematerialsituationofpersonsandhouseholds.

Insixdomainsthesatisfiedoutnumberedthedissatisfied.Familyisthe

Table9.1:Satisfactionwithdimensionsofrespondent'slife,1992-4(Meanlevelofsatisfaction)a

(%,1994)

1992 1993 1994 DisatisfiedMediumSatisfied

Family 8.65 8.52 8.49 3.4 11.9 84.7Work 7.43 7.37 7.27 6.6 26.9 66.5Housingenvironment

7.32 6.91 7.01 12.3 23.8 63.9

Housing 7.14 7.01 7.13 9.7 25.4 64.9Personalhealth 6.39 6.20 6.34 21.2 24.7 54.1Personallifetillnow

5.75 5.53 5.83 15.0 45.4 39.6

Presentlevelofliving

4.58 4.49 4.88 27.6 47.4 25.0

Futureperspectives

4.20 4.20 4.85 29.6 43.6 26.8

Income 3.62 3.69 3.99 44.6 38.3 17.1a0(lowsatisfaction)to10(highsatisfaction)

Page149

domainwheresatisfactionisdeclaredtobethehighest;84percentreporttheyaresatisfied.Itisalsonoteworthythatdissatisfactionwithincomeandwithfutureperspectivessomewhatdiminishedfrom1992to1994,althoughtheobjectiveincomedatafromthesamesurveysseemtoindicatethattheaveragerealincomelevelofthepopulationcontinuedtodeclineuptothetimethe1994surveywascarriedout.However,theotherdimensionsindicatearelativestabilityintheaveragepositivelevelofsatisfaction.

Materialist/Post-MaterialistValues

Thehighlevelofdissatisfactionwithpresentincomeleveloughttobeconsideredahighlyimportantsocialfactas,accordingtotherankordergiventothefourbasicvaluesoftheshortestversionoftheInglehartvaluequestions,Hungariansareverymaterialist.Theyattributemuchhigherimportancetothematerialistvaluesoforderandpricestabilitythantothepost-materialistvaluesofparticipationinpoliticaldecisionsandfreedomofspeech(Table9.2).AccordingtotheclassificationproposedbyInglehart59percentoftherespondentsbelongedtothematerialisttype,puttingthetwomaterialistvaluesfirstandsecond.Only2percentarepost-materialist,puttingthetwopost-materialistvaluesinthefirsttwoplaces;theremaining39percentareofthemixedtype.

Onlyminorandinconsistentdifferencescanbeseenbetweenthevalueorientationsofmenandwomen.Asmightbeexpected,thebreakdownofvaluesbyageindicatesthatyoungeradultstendtobesomewhatlessmaterialistic,butpersonshavinghighereducationareasmaterialisticasthosehavinglowereducation.

Table9.2:ValuesintheInglehartscale,1994(%)Importance

MostSecondThirdLeastDon'tknow

Maintainpublicorderinthecountry 49.1 28.8 12.5 5.9 3.9Fightagainstinflaction 35.4 38.7 16.1 5.1 3.7Morevoicecitizensingovernmentdecisions

9.9 18.1 39.6 27.7 4.7

Protectfreedomofspeech 3.4 10.0 27.2 54.7 4.6

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PsychologicalWell-Being

Ninequestionswereincludedonmentalhealthandpsychologicalwell-being;theanswersdemonstratethehighprevalenceofthesesymptomsofdisturbance(Table9.3).Sixty-onepercentcomplainedoffrequentexhaustionanddepression,57percentdeclaredthattheyusuallyhavethefeelingofbeingunlucky,41percentareveryworriedabouttheirhealth,34percentcomplainedoffrequentpalpitations,31percentsaidtheywerecontinuouslyirritatedandnervous,30percentcomplainedoffrequentheadaches,29percentstatedthattheybecomeconfusediftheyhavetoperformseveraltasksinashorttime,21percentcomplainedoffrequenttremorsand20percentstatedthattheywerenotabletobeforgettheirfearsandanxieties.

Therearesignificantdifferencesbetweensocio-economicgroupsinpsychologicalwell-being.Consistently,womenaremorelikelythanmentoreportlowerlevelsofwell-beingthanmen,asdotheold,thosewithlowerlevelsofformaleducationandthepoor.Insomecasesthesedifferencesarelarge.Forexample,18percentmorewomenreportfeelingcontinuouslyirritatedandnervous,14percentmorewomenreportfeelingfrequentexhaustionanddepressionand13percentreportfrequentpalpitations.Notunexpectedly,theoldare47percentmorelikelytoreporttheyareworriedabouttheirhealththantheyoungand33percentmore

Table9.3:Psychologicalproblems,1993(%)Percentagedifference

(Total/Yes)Female-male

Old-young

Low-higheducation

Ioftenfeelexhausted,depressed (61) 14 19 -14InmostcasesIfeelIhavenoluck (57) 4 18 -36Iworryalotaboutmyhealth (41) 12 47 -15Ioftenhaveastrongheartbeat (34) 13 33 -11

Iamconstantlyupsetandnervous (31) 8 17 -17Ioftenhaveabadheadache (30) 18 16 -13IgetveryconfusedwhenIhavetocarryoutdifferentthingsinashorttime

(29) 11 16 -20

Ioftenfindmyselftremblingallover

(21) 10 22 -12

Icannotgetridofmyfearsandanxieties

(20) 11 12 -15

Page151

likelytoreportfrequentheartpalpitations.Althoughthosewithlowlevelsofcompletedformaleducation,areconsistentlymorelikelytoreportlowerlevelsofwell-beingthanthosewithhigherlevelsofformaleducationthelargestdifferencesareobservedonthetwoitemsreferringtoluckandconfusion.Intheformer,thosewithlowerlevelsofeducationare36percentmorelikelytoreportthattheyfeelunluckythanthosewithhigherlevelsofeducationandthedifferenceonfeelingconfusedis20percent.

Thosewhoaremoredissatisfiedwiththevariousdomainsoftheirlifealsoreportlowerlevelsofpsychologicalwell-being.Itisdifficulttodeterminethecausativelinksbetweenthehighworkload(longworkinghoursinthefirstandsecondjobandinthehousehold),thestressofeverydaylife,thehighlevelofdissatisfactionandthesesymptomsofpsychologicalproblems.Itis,however,clearthattheyarelinked.

AnomieandAlienation

Itmightbehypothesizedthatbothsymptomsofpsychologicalproblemsandofgeneraldissatisfactionareatleastpartlyduetowidespreadanomieandalienation.HereIinterpretanomieandalienationasreflectingthesamephenomenon,acrisisofvaluesandthefeelingofpowerlessness.

Table9.4:Manifestationsofanomieandalienation,1993(%)Completelyagrees

Partlyagrees

Somewhatdisagrees

Completelydisagrees

AnomieIfonewishestoachievesomething,itisnecessarytobreaksomerules

38.9 39.0 12.4 9.8

NowadaysIambarelyabletofindmywayineverydaymatters

24.7 37.2 20.2 17.9

AlienationIamconfidentinmyownfuture

36.0 36.7 15.1 12.2

IcarryoutwhatIdecide 33.8 52.8 10.2 3.7Myfuturedependsfirstofallonmyself

25.3 41.1 21.0 12.6

Iambarelyabletoinfluencemyownfortune

16.7 40.3 25.3 17.7

Iambarelyabletoalleviatethemajorityofmyworries

15.6 35.5 27.1 21.8

Ioftenfeelhelplessinimportantmatters

13.7 33.4 26.6 26.3

Ioftenfeellonely 11.8 14.3 17.3 56.6Iamunabletosolvemyproblems

9.7 42.0 24.4 23.8

Iusuallydonotfindpleasureinmywork

5.7 17.3 22.6 54.4

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TheanswersinTable9.4ofrespondentstoquestionsandstatementsexploringdifferentpossiblemanifestationsofanomieandalienationindicatethatafewarewidespreadinHungary.Amajoritythinkthattoachievesomething,itisnecessarytobreakrules,andamajorityalsofinditdifficulttocopewitheverydaymattersorinfluencetheirownfortune.Ontheotherhand,averylargemajorityalsothinktheycancarryoutwhatevertheydecide,areconfidentoftheirfutureandbelievethatitdependsonwhattheythemselvesdo.

Whenweexaminethemanifestationsofanomieandalienationamongdifferentsocio-economicgroups,morewomenreporthighlevelsofanomieandalienationthanmen.Aswiththesatisfactionandwell-beingmeasures,olderpeoplereporthigherlevelsofanomieandalienationthantheyoungandsimilarlythosewithlowlevelsofformaleducationreporthigherlevelsthanthosewhohavecompletedmoreyearsofformaleducation.Therearealsodifferencesinincome,withthosefrompoorbackgroundsreportinghigherlevelsofanomieandalienationthanthemoreaffluent.However,menandtheyoungweremuchmorelikelytoindicateagreementwiththestatement:Ifonewishestoachievesomething,itisnecessarytobreaksomerules.Interestinglytherewasnosignificantdifferencebetweenthoseonlowandhighincomesinagreementwiththisstatement.

Therearesignificantinter-relationshipsbetweenanomieandalienationandgeneraldissatisfactionwiththevariousaspectsoflifeandpsychologicalwell-being.Respondentswhoweremoredissatisfiedwiththeirgenerallifesituationwerealsomorelikelytoreporthigherlevelsofanomieandalienation.Thiswasalsothecasewiththosewhoreportedlowerlevelsofpsychologicalwell-being.

Whenfourstatementsandquestionsonotheraspectsofanomieandalienation,referredtoasself-confidenceandlifegoals(Table9.5),askedbyHankissandco-authors(1978),wereincludedinasurveyin

spring1990andagaininspring1994,itwasfoundthatmanifestationsofanomieandalienationincreasedstronglyfrom1978to1990.ItmightbehypothesizedthatthisanomieandalienationcrisiswasanimportantfactorleadingtothecollapseoftheCommunistsystem(Andorka,1994).From1990to1994thesesymptomsofanomieandalienationdonotseemtohaveincreasedandsomeanswersshowadecline.Ataboutthesametimethegrowthinthesuicideratedeclined.Iftherootofanomieandalienationisthefeelingofpowerlessness,thanitmightbeconcludedthattheregimechangeclearlylessenedtheexposureofordinarycitizenstoarbitrarymeasuresofthegovernmentanditsrepressiveorgans.Asaconsequence

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Table9.5:Self-confidenceandlifegoals,1978,1990and1994(%)197819901994

Howoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyourlifehasnosense,nopurpose?

Never 72 55 47Sometimes 19 33 36Often 4 6 9Veryoften 3 4 5Continuously 2 2 3

Howoftendoyouloseyourfaithinyourself,doyouhavethefeelingthatyouareuselessforeverypurpose?

Never 71 53 60Sometimes 22 38 28Often 4 4 6Veryoften 2 3 4Continuously 1 1 2

Ideals,purposes,principleschangesorapidlythatonedoesnotknowinwhattobelieveandhowtolive

Doesnotagree 46 13 13Partlyagrees 33 28 38Completelyagrees 21 59 49

Itisnotworthwhiletomakeplansandtoformulateperspectivelifegoals?

Doesnotagree 69 17 20Partlyagrees 17 35 34Completelyagrees 14 48 46

therewasadiminutionofthefeelingofbeinghelplesslyexposedtoexternalforces,ofbeingunabletoplanandinfluenceone'sownfortunes.

Therearedifferencesbetweenmaterialistsandpost-materialistsandthefourmeasuresofself-confidenceandlifegoals.Materialistsreport

higherlevelsoffeelinguselessandthattheirlifeissenseless.However,theyarelesslikelytoreportthatitisnotworthwhiletomakeplansandtoformulatelifegoalsandthattheydonotknowinwhattobelieveorhowtolive.

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Conclusion

Thesedatashowevidenceofdissatisfactionwithincome,livingconditionsandfutureperspectives,psychologicalproblemsandmanifestationsofanomieandalienation,andinterestingdifferencesbetweendifferentsocio-economicgroups.Whereasmenreporthigherlevelsofdissatisfactionwiththeirlives,itiswomenwhoreportlowerlevelsofpsychologicalwell-beingandhigherlevelsofanomieandalienation.Thepoorandthosewithlowerlevelsofformaleducationreporthigherlevelsofgeneraldissatisfaction,anomieandalienation,andlowerlevelsofwell-being.Theyoungtendtobemoresatisfied,havehigherlevelsofwell-beingandlowerlevelsofanomieandalienation.ItoughttobeemphasisedthatalltheseproblemsexistedandwereincreasingduringtheCommunistsystem.Therearenotyetenoughdataandalsothetimeistooshorttoascertainwhetherthiscrisisisdeepening,lesseningorremainingstablesincethesystemchange.

References

Andorka,R.,1990.1988utózöngéimitkellmeghallani1990-ben[Reverberantsof1988whatshouldbefearedin1990].KözgazdaságiSzemle,37,10,11921.

Andorka,R.,1994.SocialchangesandsocialproblemsinHungarysincethe1930s.Economic,socialandpoliticalcausesofthedemiseofstatesocialism.ComparativeSocialResearch,14,4996.

Habich,R.,Krause,P.andPriller,E.,1991.DieEntwicklungdessubjektivenWohlbefindensvomJanuarbisHerbst1990inderDDRandOstdeutschland.InProjektgruppeDasSozio-ökonomischePanel,eds,LebenslagenimWandel.Frankfurt:Campus,33256.

Hankiss,E.,Manchin,R.andFüstös,L.,1978.Életmód,életminoség,

értékrendszer.AlapadatokIIII[Lifestyle,QualityofLifeandSystemofValues.BasicDataIIII].Budapest:MTANépmuvelésiIntézet.

Inglehart,R.,1977.TheSilentRevolution.ChangingValuesandPoliticalStylesamongWesternPublics.Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress.

Kopp,M.andSkrabski,Á.,1992.Magyarlelkiállapot[Hungarianmood].Budapest:Végeken.

Noll,H.H.,1994.SteigendeZufriedenheitinOstdeutschland,sinkendeZufriedenheitinWestdeutschland.InformationsdienstSozialeIndikatoren,11,17.

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Chapter10PartiesandSocialDivisionsinHungary:ACommonEastCentralEuropeanPattern?

1

GáborTóka

Itisstillanoft-mentionedcommonplacethatinnewdemocraciesthepartyloyaltiesofvotersareweak.Buthowweak?Thestandardmeansofcomparingpartisanshipinternationallyisthevolatility-index,firstdevelopedbyPedersen.Theindexiscalculatedasfollows:iftwosubsequentelectionsareenteredbythesameparties,andiftheyallgetthesameresultsonbothoccasions,thevalueoftheindexiszero;ontheotherhand,ifatthesecondelectionallthevotesaretakenbyentirelynewparties,thevalueoftheindexisonehundred.Inpractice,wealwaysrecordvaluesbetweenthesetwoextremes.Theindexcansimplybecalculatedbysummingthechangeinthepercentageofvotescastforthepartieswithdecreasingsupport(oritsmirrorimage,theincreaseofvotesofthepartiesthathavegainedsupport).

Forvotescastfortheregionalpartylistsatthe1990and1994Hungarianelectionsthevolatilityindexis28.3(seeTable10.1).ThisismorethanthreetimestheWesternEuropeanaverageforthehundredyearsbetween1885and1985(seeBartoliniandMair,1990).Inaddition,theHungarianindexisrelativelylowincomparisonwiththefigureof34forthe1991and1993electionsinPoland.Rose(1995)hasdemonstratedtheextraordinaryvolatilityofEastEuropeanelectoralalignmentswithdatafrommanyofthenewdemocracies.

Howcanweexplainthisphenomenon?Itispossiblethatthemere

noveltyofmulti-partysystemsprovidesasufficientexplanationfor

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Table10.1:Arealistvotes,Hungarianelections25March1990and8May1994(%)

1990 1994 (Change)Pro-businessparties:RepublicParty(KP) __ 2.6PartyofEntrepreneurs(VP) 1.9 0.6(Sub-total) (1.9) (3.2) (+1.3)Liberalparties:FederationofYoungDemocrats(FIDESZ)

9.0 7.0

AllianceofFreeDemocrats(SZDSZ) 21.4 19.7(Sub-total) (30.4) (2.1) (-3.7)Straightagrarianparties:AgrarianAlliance(ASZ) 3.1 2.1Co-operativeandAgrarianParty(MSZAP)

0.1 __

(Sub-total) (3.2) (2.1) (-1.1)IndependentSmallHoldersParty,splintes,andrelated:IndependentHungarianJusticeandLife(MIEP)

0.06 __

PartyofHungarianJusticeandLife(MNP)

__ 1.6

HungarianPeople'sParty(MNP) 0.8 __NationalDemocraticAlliance(NDSZ) __ 0.5MarketParty(PP) __ 0.01(Subtotal) (25.6)(13.8) (-11.8)Greenparties:GreenPartyofHungary(MZP) 0.4 0.2GreenAlternative(ZA) __ 0.02(Subtotal) (0.4) (0.2) (-0.2)Socialdemocrats:SocialDemocraticPartyofHungary(MSZDP)

3.6 1.0 (-2.6)

Post-CommunistFormations:PatroiticElectoralCoalition(HVK) 1.9

HangarianSocialistParty(MSZP) 10.9 33.0Worker'sParty(MP,ex-MSZMP) 3.7 3.2(subtotal) (16.5)(36.2) (+19.7)Source:OrszágosVálasztásiBizottság,1990.AzOrszágosVálasztásiBizottságJelentése,[ReportoftheNationalElectionCommittee].MagyarKözlöny,13May1990;OrszágosVálasztásiBizottság,1990.AzOrszágosVálasztásiBizottságJelentése,[ReportoftheNationalElectionCommittee].MagyarKözlöny,24June1994

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volatility.Thatexplanationmaybereassuringafterall,infantiledisordersdocometoanendwithtimebutforpreciselythatreason,fewfinditintellectuallyexciting.Asaconsequence,manyanalystshaveattemptedtofindamoresophisticatedexplanation.IntheHungarianpopularpress,IvánSzelényi,MihályBihariandothershavearguedthattheweaknessofpartyloyaltiesisduetothefactthatthenewpartiesfollowcatch-allstrategies,withtheresultthatvotersareunabletoidentifythemclearlyastherepresentativesofopposedsocialgroups.Iarguethatthisexplanationishardlyappropriate.

ThefirsttwopartsofthischaptercomparetheelectoralbasesofthePolish,Czech,SlovakianandHungarianpartygroupingsandexaminewhichsocio-demographicgroupsrecognizetheirrepresentativesinthespiritualfamiliesofparties.The1991figuresindicatethatthereisusuallyastrongcorrespondencebetweenvoters'socio-culturalcharacteristicsandtheirpartypreferencesinEastCentralEurope.ItisonlyinSlovakiaandHungarythatthevolatilityofpreferencescanbeexplainedbytheweaknessofsuchconnections,ifweattributeparticularimportancetoclassvotingamonglinkagesofthiskind.Thethirdandfourthsectionsdiscussthechanges,amongthemtheappearanceofthephenomenonofclassvoting,intheelectoralbasesofHungarianpartiesbetweenthefirsttwofreeelections.Iarguethattheloyaltiesoftheelectoratearestillverymuchinquestion.

Thecurrentanalysishaslimits.InthefirstpartIrelyondatafromaquestionnairesurveyinitiatedandsponsoredbytheInstituteforEastWestStudiesandconductedinOctober1991(Dohnaliketal.,1991).Inthecourseofthatsurveyweaskedthesamequestionsofrandomlyselectedgroupsof800peopleinSlovakia,1,500eachinPolandandHungaryand1,200inCzechlands.WhileIamtryingtoanalysethesimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweentheprofilesofrelatedfamiliesofpartiesinparticularcountries(Christian,liberal,agrarian,secularright-wing,formerrulingparties,etc.),thedataonlyreferto

thepartywithinthemasselectorate,andnotthepartyingovernmentorParliament.Anadditionallimitationistechnical,arisingfromtherelativelackofconsolidationofthepartysystemsunderexamination.Numeroussmallpartiestogetherenjoytheconfidenceofanotinconsiderablesectionoftheelectorate,but,becauseoftheirinsufficientfrequencyinthedata,thesevotersandthus,theirpartieshadtobeexcludedfromtheanalysis.Excludedpartieshadsupportbelow1or2percentofthevoters;theyareirrelevanttothesocio-politicalcleavagesrepresentedbythepartysystem.Thisproblemcanbealleviatedbycombiningsomeof

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thesmallerpartiesintheanalysis.ThiscoursewaschosenforthreesmallChristian-democraticpartiesandmovementsintheCzechRepublicdespiteitssimilarity,thePeople'sParty(CSL)remainedinacategoryofitsownandinthecaseofPolandwiththevariouspeasants'parties;withpartiesofaChristianorientation;withthesmallerliberalpartiesandtheLiberalDemocraticCongress(KLD);andwithelectoralalliancesbearingthenameoftheSolidarityUnioninsomeformoranother.

PartyPreferencesinPost-CommunistSocieties

Theliteratureconcerningpost-Communistcountriescontainstwo,seeminglydiametricallyopposed,expectationsregardingthedeterminationofpartypreferencesbysocio-demographicfactors.Themajorityviewisthatintheearlystagesofdevelopmentofpost-CommunistPartysystemsfollowingthefallofauthoritarianregimes,threecharacteristicswereapparent.First,individualpartiesincomparisonwiththeircounterpartsinestablishedpartysystemsreliedonextraordinarilyheterogeneouselectoralbases.Second,newlyestablishedparties,oftenunitedbynomorethantheiroppositiontotheoldregimeorthedemandfordemocratization,wereunabletofulfiltheirinterest-articulatingandrepresentativefunctions.Third,theresultingpartysystemswereimmature.

ThemostsuccinctstatementofthenormativethrustofthisapproachhasbeengivenbyAlainTouraine(1991:263):

Representativedemocraciesnotonlyimplyinstitutionsguaranteeingfreedomofpoliticalchoice;theyalsorequirethepre-existenceofsocialinterestswhichcanberepresented,whichensuresameasureofprioritytopeopleinsocietyovertheirpoliticalrepresentation.IfWesternEuropehavehadstrongdemocracies,itisbecausetheirpartiesfaithfullyreflectedthecategoriesorevensocialclassesbornofindustrialisation.Wherethelinkwasstrong,asinBritainandtheScandinaviancountries,theprimacy

ofcivilsocietywasensured;where,onthecontrary,theconceptofthestateremainedpredominant,asinFrance,democracyhasalwaysbeenweaker,threatenedordestroyedbyBonapartist-stylemovementsorbypartiesmoreconcernedwithtakingpowerthanwithdefendingtheinterestsofaparticularsocialcategoryandthereforerecognizingpoliticalpluralism.

ThethesisthatconnectionsbetweenpartypreferencesandsocialpositionareextraordinarilyweakinEasternEuropeisnotsomuchbasedonfactualobservationbutstemsfromthesupposedimmaturityof

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thenewdemocracies.Itisalsoimportanttonotetheoriginsoftheidea.StartingfromthehistoricalanalysisofLipsetandRokkan(1967),BartoliniandMair(1990:212-49)arguethatthepoliticalconflictswhichdeterminethelong-termcleavagesofpartysystemsarethosethatbringintooppositiongroupsthatcanbedemarcatedbycertainsocialcharacteristics(e.g.ethnicity,class,religiousaffiliationthedemandfordemocratizationdoesnotitselfusuallybringsuchgroupsintoopposition).Inaddition,whengroupsarebroughtintoopposition,theyoftenpossessastrongsenseofcollectiveidentity,arereadytoactonthisbasisandrepresentasocialcleavagethathassomeformoforganizationalexpression.Yet,afterfortyyearsofstatesocialism,itisunlikelythatthepotentiallyimportantcleavagesofthenearfutureshouldpossesssuchcognitive,affectiveandorganizationalexpression.Intheseatomizedsocietiesthereisinitiallylittlechancethatimportantsocialcleavageswilltranslateintopartyideologiesandintotheorganizationallinkagesbetweenpartiesandvoluntaryorganizations(seeMair,1991).

Thealternativeapproacharguesthatinarelativelynewpartysystemoverandabovethefactthatthepoliticalprioritiesofthepartiesthemselvesarenotyetfullyformedtheelectorate'simageoftheparties,theirfunctionalrolesandtheirpossiblegovernmentactivitiesareunderdeveloped.However,thatispreciselythereasonwhysuperficialsignsofthesocio-demographicandculturalpositionofthepartiesandtheirleadersmayaffectthevoters'choiceofpartytoanextraordinarydegree.IntheWestGermancase,accordingtoKlingemannandWattenberg(1992),theperiodfollowingthefirstdemocraticchangeofgovernmentbetween1969and1987wasoneinwhichtheimageformedbytheGermanelectorateofthetwomajorpartiesbecameincreasinglyvariegatedanddetailed.Atthesametime,boththestrengthofidentificationwiththepartiesandthesocio-demographicbaseofthevoteweakened.Thesignificanceofclass

voting,forexample,decreaseddespitethefactthattheaveragevoterwasformingastrongerimageoftheclassrootsoftheCDU.Totheextentthatthistrendcanbeunderstoodasindicativeofamorerational,politicallyconsciouspatternofelectoralbehaviour,theincreasedsocio-demographicdeterminationofthevotecouldalsobeseenasasignoftheimmaturityofthepartysystem.Inotherwords,theweakandthestrongcharacterofthesocialembeddednessofthevotecouldequallybeinterpretedasalogicalconsequenceoftheweakmotivationalbasesofpartyattachments.

Table10.2showsthestrengthoftheconnectionsbetweenpartypreferencesandcertainsocio-demographicbackgroundvariablesinnine

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Table10.l2:Correlationsbetweensocialvariablesandpartypreference

EducaINCOMEbCHURCATcURBRURdAGE4ePartyPreferencef

(Symmetricuncertaintycoefficient)

Australia .004 .005 .017 .029 .005USA .001 .005* .014 .003 .004*GreatBritain

.022 .020 .009 .008 .008

Germany .017 .011 .035 na .002*Austria .010 .011 .100 .024 .004*CzechRepublic

.039 .020 .072 .030 .035

Slovakia .026 .030 .148 .014 .045Hungary .035 .018 .078 .023 .080Poland .083 .022 .032 .101 .013**chi-squarestatisticnotsignificantatthe.05levelnanodataavailableaEDUC:educationwascodedas1maximumprimary,2vocationalschool,incompletedsecondaryschool,3finishedsecondaryschool,4highereducationbINCOME:totalfamilyincome:1one-thirdwithlowestincome,2one-thirdinbetweenorlackofdata,3one-thirdwithhighestincomecCHURCAT:frequencyofchurch-going:1onceamonthatleast,2severaltimesayear,3lessfrequentlyorneverdURBRUR:placeofresidence:1bigcity(100,000inhabitantsormore),2smallsettlement(lessthan2,0002,500inhabitants),3othereAGE4:age:11829,23044,34559,460yearsoldorolderfPartiesconsideredinthegivencountries:Australia:LiberalParty,Labour,Country(National)Party,DemocraticPartyUnitedStates:Reagan,Mondale

GreatBritain:Conservative,Labour,Alliance(orLiberalorSDP)Germany:CDU/CSU,SPD,FDP,TheGreensAustria:OVP,SPÖ,FPÖCzechRepublicandMoravia:CzechPeople'sParty(CSL),SocialDemocraticParty(CSSD),CommunistParty(KSCM),CivilDemocraticParty(ODS),CivicMovement(OH),CivicDemocraticAlliance(ODA),AGrarianParty(memberoftheSocialistUnion),GreenParty(memberoftheSocialLiberalUnion),SocialistParty(memberoftheSocialLiberalUnion),smallerChristiandemocraticpartiesandmovements),MoravianParties(HSD-SMS),RepublicanParty(SPR-RSC)Slovakia:ChristianDemocraticMovement(KDH),SlovakNationalParty(SNS),MovementforDemocraticSlovakia(HZDS),PartyofDemocraticLeft(SDL),CivicDemocraticUnion(VPN-ODU)Hungary:MDF,SZDSZ,FKGP,MSZP,FIDESZ,KDNPPoland:peasantparties(PLandPSL),Solidarnosc(aggregatesupportersofelectorallistsandpartiesusingthenameoftheunion),Christianparties(includeCentreAgreement(POC),andCatholicElectoralAction(WAK),DemocraticUnion(UD),liberalparties(includingLiberalDemocraticCongress(KLD),andUnionofRealpolitics(UPR),ConfederationforIndependentPoland(KPN),DemocraticLeftAlliance(SLD))Sources:Zentralarchiv,1987.TheRoleofGovernment,ISSP1985,Machine-ReadableDataFile.Köln:Zentralarchiv;Dohnalik,Jacek,Hartl,Jan,Krazysztof,Jasiewicz,Markowski,Radoslaw,Mateju,Peter,Rezler,Lubos,Tóka,Gábor,Tucek,Milan,1991.DismantlingoftheSocialSafetyNetanditsPoliticalConsequencesinEastCentralEurope.AnInternationalComparativeStudyInitiatedandSponsoredbytheInstituteofEast-WestStudies,NewYork-Prague.Machine-ReadableDataFile.Distributors:IEWS,NewYorkandTÁRKI,Budapest

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countries.Thestrengthoftheconnectionsisindicatedbythesymmetricuncertaintycoefficient,whosevaluewouldbezeroif,inagivencountry,therewerenoconnectionsbetweensocio-demographiccharacteristicsandpartypreferences,andonewhenpartypreferencescouldbewhollyexplainedbysocio-demographiccharacteristics.ThedataforthefiveWesterndemocraciesisthe1985-6ISSPRoleofGovernmentsurvey(Zentralarchiv,1987),whiletheEasternEuropeandataaretheOctober1991surveymentionedabove.IntheUSA,Austria,GermanyandAustraliacurrentpartypreferenceswereusedinsteadofvotescastattheirmostrecentnationalelections.Non-voters,respondentsgivingnopartypreferenceandsupportersofsmallpartieswereexcludedfromtheanalysis.ThenumberofpartiestakenintoconsiderationintheWesterncountriesrangesfromtwointheUSAtofourinWestGermanyandAustralia,whileintheEasternEuropeancountriesitvariesfromfiveinSlovakiatotwelveinCzechland-Moravia.

Twosimpleindicatorsofsocialstatus,educationandincome,haveastrongercorrelationwithchoiceofpartyineachofthefournewdemocraciesthaninthefiveestablishedones.Theeffectofageissimilar:withtheexceptionofPoland,theimpactofageonpartypreferenceiscomparableorasinHungarylargerthanthatofsocialstatus.AlthoughslightdifferencesinthepartypreferencesofvariousagegroupsdooccurinWesterndemocraciesaswell,theirsignificancetendstobemarginal.Bycontrast,theeffectofageismuchlargerineachofthefournewdemocracies:inthetwodifferentpartysystemsofCzechoslovakiaandinHungary,ageisamajorfactorshapingthecompetitionoftheparties.

AlongwiththeHungarianSmallholders,wefindtheHungarianandtheSlovakianChristianDemocrats,andthePeople'sParty(CSL)andtheCommunists(KSCM)ofCzechlandamongtheEastCentralEuropeanpartieswiththeoldestsupporters.Althoughitistemptingto

explainthisbythehistoricalcharacteroftheseparties,oursamplecontainsatleastonehistoricalpartytheCzechsocialdemocrats(CSSD)whoseelectoralbaseshowsonlyamarginalover-representationofoldervoters.ThesamepatternholdsforthePolishandCzechagrarianparties.AmongformerCommunistpartiesandChristianpartieswiththeexceptionoftheratherinsignificantCzechChristiandemocratsitisgenerallythecasethattheaverageageoftheirvotersisabovethenationalaverage.AlthoughthePolishChristianpartiesalsodisplaythistendencyonlytoaverylimitedextent,andthoughtheconsistentcharacteristicofformerCommunistpartiesseemstobeextremelysmallnumbersofsupportersamongtheyoungestagegroupsratherthanahighratioamongthe

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elderly,certainpartytypeshaveaparticularappealtocertainagegroupsacrossthewholeregion.

Thelistofpartieswithyoungerelectoralbasesalsodemonstratesthesystematicbutcomplexnatureofthephenomenon.Accordingtoourdata,inEastCentralEurope,alongwiththeHungarianFIDESZ,itistheCzechrepublicans(SPR-RSC,theallianceoftwoxenophobicpartieswhoseprofilesaresimilartothatoftheGermanrepublicans),certainCzechcentre-leftoppositionparties

2(notablytheGreens)andtheSlovakNationalPartythatcanlayclaimtotheyoungestvoters.Nevertheless,itisnotsimplytheprotest-votingtendencyoftheyoungthataccountsforthispattern,sincetherelativelylowaverageageoftheelectoralbaseisalsocommonamongliberalpartiesingovernmentandinopposition.Forexample,inOctober1991itwasalsoacharacteristicoftheSlovakianPublicAgainstViolence,theCzechCivicMovementofPetrPithartandJiriDienstbier,thePolishLiberalDemocraticCongressandDemocraticUnionaswellastheHungarianAllianceofFreeDemocrats(SZDSZ).ApeculiarcharacteristicofthepoliticsofageinEastCentralEuropeisprovidedbyVaclavKlaus'ssecular-conservativeCivicDemocraticPartywhichistypicallyanddominantlythepartyofthemiddleaged.

Turningtopartypreference,religionandplaceofresidence,inEastCentralEuropebothareapproximatelyasimportantasifnotmoreimportantthantheyareinthoseWesterncountrieswheretheurban-ruralorthereligious-secularcleavageistraditionallyveryimportant.InHungaryandtheCzechRepublictheext0entofseparationbetweenpartiesrelyingonmoreruralandonmoreurbanelectoralbasesissimilartothatinAustriaorAustralia,whileinPolandthesameseparationtakesonratherextremeproportions.Inthisregard,Slovakiaisexceptional,probablybecauseitistheonlyareainthe

regionwhereformeragrarianpartieshavenotre-emerged.ItisonlyinPolandthatagrarianpartiesinthenarrowsensedominatethevillages.ThelikelyexplanationisthatPolishagriculturalconditionsweretheleasttransformedbystatesocialism.Giventheunusuallyhighratioofagriculturalemployment,thismakestherural-urbancleavageoneofthemostimportantfactorsinPolishelectoralpolitics.

WhilethePolishandCzechagrarianpartiesfindmorethanhalfoftheirsupportersamongthoseactuallyworkinginagriculture,inthecaseoftheHungarianSmallHoldersPartythefigureisbelow20percent.Oncetheageandreligiousdistributionsoftheirelectoralbasesarealsotakenintoaccount,thesocialbaseoftheSmallHoldersPartyissimilartothatoftheCzechPeople'sPartyandtotheHungarianandSlovakian

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Christiandemocratsratherthantotheagrarianparties.Inthenewdemocracies,asinAustriaandWestGermany,apartfromagrarianpartiesitisChristianpartiesthatenjoyabove-averagesupportamongcountrydwellersandthoseemployedinagriculture.PolishChristiandemocraticparties,whichfacestrongcompetitionfrompeasants'parties,andthesmallCzechChristiandemocraticpartiesoutsidethePeople'sParty,constituteexceptionstothisrule,as,accordingtoourdata,theyachieveconsiderablylessthantheirnationalaverageamongvotersemployedinagricultureand/orlivinginruralareas.

InthepredominantlyAnglo-Saxoncountriesthereligious-secularcleavagehasnosignificantroletoplayinpartypolitics.Bycontrast,inWestGermanyandespeciallyAustriathereisastrongcorrelationbetweenthefrequencyofchurchgoingandpartypreference.(Rose,1974:11).ThereisnothingunusualinthewayinwhichreligiondifferentiatestheelectoralbasesoftheindividualEastCentralEuropeanparties.Practisingreligiousvoterspledgeabove-averagesupporttothevariousChristianparties,whilethesupportforformerCommunistpartiesissignificantlyloweramongthesevoters.Toalesserdegree,alloftheliberal(UD,KLD,OH,ODA,VPN-ODU,SZDSZ,FIDESZ)andthesecularnationalist(KPN,SlovakNationalParty,HZDS,Czechrepublicans)partiesoftheregion,aswellastheCzechcentre-left,arepartiessupportedbylessreligiousvoters.Inthiscontext,theHungarianDemocraticForumissituatedmoreontheclericalside,whileVaclavKlaus'sconservative-liberalCivicDemocraticPartyisonthesecularside.

AmongthefourEastCentralEuropeancountries,predictingaperson'svoteonthebasisofhisorherreligiousaffiliationisleasteffectiveinPoland.Atthesametime,theaccuracyofsuchapredictionissimilarinWestGermany,whileintheotherthreecountriesitissignificantlymoreaccuratedespitethefactthatinWestGermanytheChristianpartiesareopposedtothreeclearlyand

traditionallyanti-clericalones.ThisisespeciallyinterestingconsideringthatboththeCzechRepublicandHungaryappearmoresecularized(asindicatedbytheratioofregularchurchgoers)thaneitherWestGermanyorAustria.InSlovakia,wheretheratioofregularchurchgoersisclosertothatinthetwoGerman-speakingcountries,thepartypreferencesofindividualsubjectscanbepredictedonthebasisofchurchgoingevenmoreaccuratelythaninAustria.

WecanconcludethatinEastCentralEuropepartypreferencesareinfluencedbythesocio-demographiccharacteristicsoftheelectoratemorethanintheestablishedWesterndemocracies.Wecanalsosaythat

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theelectoralbasesofEastCentralEuropeanpartiesareingeneralmoresociallyhomogeneousthanthoseoftheirWesterncounterparts.However,thisisnotnecessarilyasignofmaturityonthepartofEastCentralEuropeandemocracies.NeitherdoesitmeanthatEastCentralEuropehasmoreandpoliticallymorerelevantcleavagesthantheotherdemocraciesofcontinentalEurope.Itmaybeonlyasymptomoftheemergenceofmassdemocracytodayinsocietieswhichareinsomerespectspre-modern.

ClassandPartyPreference

Withsomecaveats,thetheorythatpositsaweakerconnectionbetweenpartypreferenceandsocialpositioninthenewEasternEuropeandemocraciesthanintheWesterndemocraciesisnotconfirmed.Thesituationisthesameforoccupationalclass:iftherespondentsaredividedintothreecategoriessimilartothoseusedinWesterncountries(differentiatingbetweenthemiddleclass,comprisingmostlynon-manualworkersandindependents;theworkingclass;andthelargelyinactiveothercategory),theconnectionbetweenoccupationandpartychoiceisweakerinalloftheWesterncountries(withtheexceptionofBritainand,partially,Austria)thaninanyoftheEastCentralEuropeanones(seeTable10.3,column1).

Thispicturechangessomewhatifweframethequestionlikethis:inindividualcountries,howdothepartypreferencesofnon-manualemployees,farmersandagriculturalworkers,andothermanualworkersdifferfromthenationalpattern?Outofourninecountries,theidentificationofthepartythatseesitselfastheprimaryrepresentativeofagrarianinterestsisaproblemonlyintheUnitedStatesandSlovakia,andthesmallnumberofagriculturalworkersinBritainandtheUnitedStatesmakesquantitativecomparisonmeaningless.Consequently,ifwecompareonlytheremainingthreeWesterncountrieswiththefourEastEuropeanones,thesignificant

differenceswefindarenotbetweenthetwogroupsbutwithinthem.Inotherwords,wecannotclaimthatthebackgroundvariableinquestion(AGRIC,seeTable10.3)hasastrongereffectonchoiceofpartyinthenewdemocraciesthanintheestablishedones.WedofindsuchsignsforNONMAN:inPoland,HungaryandtheCzechRepublicitiseasiertoidentifythetypicalpartypreferencesofnon-manualemployeesthaninanyoftheWesterndemocracieswiththeexceptionofBritain.

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Table10.3:Correctionbetweeneconomicstatusandpartypreference

CLASSaAGRICbNONMANc INDWRKdMEMBERePartypreferencef

(Sytmmetricuncertaintycoefficient)

Australia .009 .021 .007 .016 .021USA .006* na .006 .007 .035GreatBritain .039 na .030 .028 .011Germany .013 .036 .003 .016 .029Austria .014 .039 .003 .016 .043CzechRepublic

.027 .035 .017 .020 .025

Slovakia .020 .002 .004 .003* .069Hungary .014 .014 .017 .005* .039Poland .031 .112 .059 .020 .045*Chi-squarestatisticisnotsignificantatthe.05levelnanumbersaretoosmalltoprovidereliableestimatesaCLASS:presentorlastjob:1non-manulemployeeorself-employed,3manualworker,2otherornothingbAGRIC:presentorlastjob:1idenpendentfarmeroragriculturalmanualworker,2otherornothingcNONMAN:presentorlastjob:1non-manualemployee,2otrherornothingeINDWRK:presentorlastjob:1othermanualworker,2otherornothingfMEMBER:tradeunionmembershipinWesterncountries,formerCSKPmembershipinCzechoslovakia,formerLEMPmembershipinPolandandformerMSZMPmembershipinHungary:1member,2notmembergseeTable10.2fordescriptionofpartiesSources:Zentralarchiv,1987.TheRoleGovgernment,ISSP1985,Machine-ReadableDataFile.Köln:Zentralarchiv;Dohnalik,Jacek,Hartl,Jan,Krazysztof,Jasiewicz,Markowski,Radoslaw,Mateju,Peter,Rezler,Lubos,Tóka,Gábor,Tucek,Milan,1991.DismantlingoftheSocialSafetyNetanditsPolitical

ConsequencesinEastCentralEurope.AnInterrnationalComparativeStudyInitiatedandSponsoredbytheInstituteofEase-WestStudies,NewYork-Prague.Machine-ReadableDataFile.Distributors:IEWS,NewYorkandTÁRKI,Budapest

Thereverseisthecasefornon-agriculturalmanualworkers.TheINDWRKvariable(seeTable10.3)showsastatisticallysignificant(thoughnotverystrong)connectionwithpartychoiceinallWesterncountries,butofthefournewdemocraciesthisoccursonlyinPolandandCzechland.However,theclassvotemanifestsitselfinasomewhatpeculiar,rathernegativeformthere:notassupportforcertainpartiesbutratheraslackofsupportforotherparties.InPolandthepartiesbearingthenameoftheSolidarityUnion,andinCzechlandtheCommunistPartyandsomeofthecentre-leftparties,werepreferredbyslightlymoremanualthannon-manualworkers.ThePolishDemocraticUnionandliberalsaswellastheCzechCivicDemocraticPartyappeartoattracthalfasmuchsupportfrommanualworkersasfromallothervoters.Possibleexplanationsforthisincludetheconnectionoftheformerparty

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withtheBalcerowiczplan,andthelatterwiththeeconomicprogrammeofVaclavKlaus.

OurquantitativecomparisonconfirmsbeyonddoubtinSlovakiaandHungary,andtentativelyinCzechlandandPoland,thattheEastCentralEuropeanpartiesrelyonextraordinarilyheterogeneouselectoralbases.Animportantelementoftheexplanationforthisphenomenonis,ofcourse,thatinthesecountrieswiththeexceptionofCzechlandtheonlysignificantrepresentativesofthetraditionalleftinthepoliticalarenaarethesuccessorsoftheformerCommunistparties,andthesepartiesrelyonanextremelynarrowelectoralbase.Usingasimile,whileinWesterncountriesunionmembershipisusuallyamoreaccurateindicatorofavotecastforaleft-wingpartythanoccupationitself,inEastCentralEuropeformerPZPR,KSCSandMSZMPmembershipsplaythesamerole(seeTable10.3).TheCommunistsuccessorpartiesattractedbetween50to65percentoftheir1991supportamongformerpartymembersinallfourrepublics,whiletheprobabilityofothervoterssupportingthemisseventotentimesmallerthanthatofformerpartymembers.Inallofthecountriesexamined,formerpartymembersmostlycamefromnon-manualworkers,andsincewiththesingleexceptionoftheCzechRepublicamongformerpartymembersthelikelihoodofsympathizingwiththesuccessorpartyisthesameformanualandnon-manualworkers,itisunderstandablethattheelectoralbasesofEastCentralEuropeanleft-wingpartiesareconsistentlymorenon-manualthanmanual.

3Czechlandmaybeanexceptiontothispattern,partlybecauseofthepresenceoftheSocialLiberalUnion(LSU),andpartlybecauseoftheunusualelectoralbaseoftheCzechCommunists.Formerpartymembersaredifficulttoidentifyasaseparatesocialgroupsuchasthemembershipofareligiousdenominationoranoccupational

grouphenceitisdifficulttoclaimthatwearedealingwithapeculiarlyEasternEuropeancleavageintheLipset-Rokkansense.Despitethis,itstillseemsthatthecharacteristicsofEastCentralEuropeanpartysystemscannotbereducedtothesymptomsofimmaturity(fragmentedness,underdevelopment,instability,etc.),butinsomerespectstheyaredistinctlydifferentfromthepartysystemsoftheWesterndemocracies.

Whileourfindingsarereinforcedbyotherstudies(seeTóka,1995),theabsenceofaclassvoteinHungaryandSlovakia,andthephenomenonofanegativeclassvote,hasprovedtobetemporary.InSlovakia,theexplanationwastheemergenceoftheSlovakWorkersParty,astronglyétatistpartyfoundedin1994byaformerpost-CommunistmemberofParliament,anditssubsequentremarkableelectionperfor-

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mance.InHungary,theexplanationwasthesuddenincreaseinthepopularityofthereformistsocialistparty(MSZP)in1993-4.In1991-2,populardissatisfactionwiththecoalitiongovernmentoftheChristian-nationalistpartiesseemedtoenhancetheelectionprospectsofthepro-marketliberalparties.However,amovementfavouringthesocialistsbegantoemergeinearly1993.WhileFIDESZ,havingledthepollssinceearly1991,becomemoreoutspokenaboutitspro-businesseconomicpolicies,theliberalpluralitybegantotransformitselfintoasocialistgrouping.AlthoughHungariancommentatorsmostlyemphasizedtheroleofotherfactorstoexplaintheshiftinpublicopinion,thedatabelowunderlinetheimportanceofeconomicpolicy.Thus,electoralchoicehasbecomemoremeaningfulintermsofclasspolitics;buthavethepartyattachmentsofthevotersbecomestrongerinthecourseofthischange?

ExplainingStrongerPartyAttachments

Inthissectionweshallrelyprimarilyonthreesourcesofdata.First,weusetheMay1990TÁRKIstudyandtheAprilMay1994masssurveybytheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceoftheCentralEuropeanUniversityandMediántodetermineinwhichsocialgroupindividualpartieslostorgainedsupportbetweenthetwoelections.Bothstudiesusednationalclusteredrandomsamplesofadultcitizens,whosememberswerequestionedshortlyafterthe1990andthe1994elections.Sincealltherespondentsinthe1990studywereover19yearsold,respondentsunder20wereexcludedfromtheanalysisofthedataoftheCEUsurveyaswell.Toscreenoutthepossibledistortingeffectofsmalldifferencesbetweenthecompositionsofthetwosamples,weimplementedaweighingprocedurewherebytheratiosof126socio-demographicgroups(differentiatedbygender,age,placeofresidenceandlevelofeducation)withinthesamplesweremadetoagreewiththecorrespondingestimatesforthe1990national

census.Alongwiththesetwostudies,weshallalsouseanelectiondayexitpollconductedon8May1994bytheNépszabadságnewspaperandtheMediánInstituteofMarketandPublicOpinionResearch.

WhatreasondowehavetosupposethatthevolatilityofHungarianvotersmayprovepermanent?BartoliniandMairhavedemonstratedthatextraordinarilyvolatileelectionshaveoccurredintwosorthrees,ratherthaninisolation.Atthesametime,theireffectonthebalanceofpowerbetweenpartieshasbeensuchthatthehistoricalanalogywithother

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volatileelectionstendstosupporttheargumentthatthefurthertransformationoftheHungarianpartysystem,especiallyinthedirectionofleft-wingdominance,willbecomepermanent.Thus,iftwoormoreconsecutiveelectionsproducehighlevelsofvolatility,thentheywillstrengthenthesamepartyorpartyfamily.However,wemaybemoreinterestedindiscoveringwhetherthedecisionsofindividualvotersshowedmoreorlesstemporalvariabilityduringthe1994electioncampaignthanduringthecorrespondingperiodofthe1990campaign.

Wecanmakesomeestimatesofinter-electionvolatilitybycomparingaFebruaryMarch1991panelconductedbyGallup-Budapestwiththe1994CEUpaneldata.Theresultsshowthatthewithin-campaignvolatilityoftheChristianDemocrat(KDNP)andSocialist(MSZP)constituencieshadprobablyincreased,andthatofMDFandFIDESZvotershadprobablydecreasedbetweenthetwoelections.TheloyaltyoftheFKGPandSZDSZconstituenciesdidnotshowsignificantchangeovertime.Yetthiscomparisonissomewhatunreliable,astwopanelstudiesexaminedstabilityduringdifferentperiodsofthetwocampaigns.Itismoreworthwhiletocomparedatafromthe1994exitpollandtheMay1990TÁRKIstudytoidentifyhowcongruentthelistvotesofthevoterswerewiththeirvotesinthesingle-memberconstituenciesduringthefirstround

4(seeTóka,1994).Weassumethatthefrequencyofcongruentvotes,thoughlessthanthetemporalconstancyofpartypreferences,isstillanacceptableindicatorofthestrengthofvoters'partyloyalties.

Theincreaseinthecongruencybetweenlistvotesandsingle-membersvotesislikelytohavebeengreaterthanourdatasuggest,asthe1990figurescomefromastudyconductedamonthafterthesecondroundofelections,whileour1994estimateswererecordedattheexitpoll

conductedthedayafterthefirstround.Nevertheless,asignificantincreaseinconsistencyisstillevidentforthreeofthesixmajorparties,whilenoneshowsastatisticallysignificantdecrease.In1994,about90percentofthevotersofagivenmajorparty'slistvotedfortheparty'scandidateinthesingle-memberdistricts.Yetacloserlookfindsnotraceofstrengthenedpartyloyalties.Thereasonfortheincreaseinthecongruencyofthetwovotesisthat,ontheonehand,theproportionofthosevoterswhosupportedanindependentcandidateinthesingle-memberconstituenciesapparentlydecreasedamongthesupportersofeachmajorparty'slistsince,in1994,considerablyfewerseriouscandidatesstoodasindependents.Ontheotherhand,wheretheincreaseincongruencyofvotesissignificant,aswiththeFIDESZ,theexplanationmaybeinthe

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increasedstrengthofthatparty'sorganizationratherthaninthestrengtheningpartyloyaltieshypothesis.FIDESZenteredapartylistineveryregionbothin1990and1994,butin1990ithadcandidatesinonlyhalfasmanysingle-memberdistricts.Theothermajorpartiesdidnotforcetheir1990followerstosplittheirvoteinthesamewayastheorganizationallyweakerFIDESZdid.

Onlyoneofthefactorscapableofincreasingthecongruencyofthetwovoteswouldimplythestrengtheningofvoters'partyloyalties:namelyiftheproportionofvoterssplittingtheirvotesbetweentwopartiesinthefirstrounddefinitelydecreasedamongfollowersofthefourmajorparties(MDF,SZDSZ,FKGPandMSZP)whosenumberofcandidateswasequallygoodatbothelections.Yetoverallthereislittlereasontobelievethatsuchadevelopmenttookplace.InthecasesoftheMDFandtheSZDSZtheproportionofsuchvotersshowsaslightincrease,whilefortheMSZPandtheFKGPadecreasewasregistered.

Itseemscertainthatthecongruenceoflistvotesandsingle-membervotesincreased,butaccordingtotheabovereasoningthatdoesnotnecessarilymeanthatthepsychologicalloyaltiesofvotersincreased.

TheMovetotheLeft

TheotherexplanationofthevolatilityofHungarianvotersisthatthepartiesareuncommittedtodistinguishableeconomicpolicies,withtheresultthattheirelectoralbasesareindistinguishablefromeachotherintermsbothofmassattitudestowardseconomicpolicyandinthesupportofspecificoccupationalgroups.Datafromthe1990-2perioddoshowthatthevotersofthesixmajorHungarianpartiesaremoreheterogeneousinthesetworespectscomparednotonlytoBritishvoters,butalsotoPolish,CzechandSlovakianvotersaswell(seeTóka,1995).Inexplanationsadvancedfortheresultsofthe1994

election,however,itbecamealmostcompulsorytosuggestthatthespectacularincreaseinMSZPvoteswasnotmerelytheresultofdissatisfactionwiththeperformanceoftheAntallgovernment,oroppositiontotheChristian-nationalspiritandstyle,butratherandmaybemostofalltheresultofalatentdemandforaleft-wingshiftineconomicpolicy.Followingthelogicofthesecomments,thepolarizationofelectoralbasesintermsofattitudestowardseconomicpolicyshouldalsoimplythestrengtheningofvoters'partyloyalties.Thelatter,aswearguedabove,didnotoccur.Butdidthepolarizationintermsofeconomicpolicyitselfoccur?

Table10.4:Recalledlistvotesbyeconomicpolicyattutudes,1990and1994(%)(1990)

FIDESZFKGPKDNPMDFMSZPSZDSZOther(WeightedN)

StatecontrolspricesaDoesnotagree 7 9 5 34 6 32 7 (216)Both 15 8 4 34 9 24 6 (135)Agrees 8 14 8 37 8 17 9 (277)

IndustrysubsidizedbDoesnotagree 8 6 3 39 9 28 8 (211)Both 4 9 8 39 7 27 7 (116)Agrees 12 13 8 31 8 20 8 (299)

Inflation/unemploymenticAgainstinflation 9 10 6 35 9 24 8 (469)Againstunemployment 10 15 10 33 5 21 6 (150)

TradeunioninfluencedToolittle 10 10 5 36 9 25 6 (361)Asmuchasneeded 10 9 12 37 7 16 10 (105)Toomuch 8 10 4 35 6 29 9 (97)

PrivatizationeAgainstprivatization 6 14 9 34 10 17 10 (134)Preferablyslower 10 9 6 36 7 26 7 (443)Thefasterthebetter 10 9 16 37 8 18 3 (47)

ForeignownshipfNotallowedtobuy 10 14 8 40 6 15 7 (99)Buyonlycompanieswithdeficit

7 12 9 28 7 28 10 (215)

Anything,ifhighestprice

8 8 5 41 9 23 6 (278)

PrivatizedowncompanygNo 13 10 6 35 8 20 9 (136)Yes 8 8 4 37 8 30 5 (162)

(tablecontinuedonnextpage)

(tablecontinuedfrompreviouspage)

aIamgoingtogiveyousomeexamplesofhowthestatecaninfluencetheeconomystate]controlspricesbydecrees?banddoyouagreewiththefactthatindustrialbranchesincrisisshouldbesubsidizedtsothatpeopleworkingtherewon'tbecomeunemployed?cIfthegovernmentweretochoosebetweendecreasinginflationorunemployment,whichdoyouthinktheyshouldchoose:whichdoyouthinkismoreimportant,tocurbinflationortodecreaseunemployment?dDoyouthinkthattheinfluencetradeunionsexertinHungaryismore,lessoraboutasmuchastheyshould?ePrivatizingstate-ownedcompaniesisanissuefrequentlymentionednowadays.Itisalsosaidthatalotofabuseshaveoccurredinthisrespectinthepastfewyears.Whatdoyouthinkofthisquestion?State-ownedcompaniesshouldnotbeprivatized,ortheyshouldbeprivatizedbutabusesshouldbestoppedevenifitmeansslowingdownchanges,ortheprocessofprivatizationshouldbeacceleratedevenifitinvolvesabuses?fNowadaystheyoftentalkaboutforeigncompaneisandprivateindividualsbuyingHungariancompanies.Whatdoyouthinkwouldberight:foreignersshouldnotbeallowedtobuyHungariancomapneisatall,orforeignersshouldbeallowedtobuycomapaneisoperatingwithdeficit,orforeignersshouldbeallowedtobuyanyHungariancompanyiftheyofferthehighestprice?Source:TÁRKI-CISSP(May1990);CEU-Medián:MayPanel(April-May1994)

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Table10.4showstheproportionsofvotescastforindividualpartiesin1990and1994byopiniongroups.Subjectswhodidnotanswer,orgaveadon'tknowanswer,aswellasnon-votersandthosewhorefusedtodivulgehowtheyvoted,areexcludedfromtheseestimates.Inbothyears,morepeoplerecalledvotingforthewinningparty,andfewerforthelistofoneofthepartiesthatdidnotwinelectiontoParliament,thanwouldbeexpectedfromarepresentativesample.Asaresult,thesefiguresmakethegainoftheMSZP,aswellasthelossoftheMDF,appeargreaterthantheyreallywere.However,astheprobabilityofafalsevoterecallispresumedtoberandomanduncorrelatedwithopinionsoneconomicpolicy,thisshouldnotdistorttheresultsofouranalysis.

Thecompositionandsizeofindividualopiniongroupsdidnotremainconstantwithtime.Accordingtoourdata,44percentofthe1990electorateand65percentin1994agreedthatthestateshouldcontrolpricesbymeansoflawsandstatutes.In199048percentagreedthatsectorsincrisisshouldbesupportedinordertosavejobs,comparedto69percentin1994.In1990,24percentagreedthatthefightagainstunemploymentwasmoreimportantthanthefightagainstinflation,comparedto60percentin1994.Inbothyears,justoversixoutoftenfeltthattheinfluenceoftheunionswastooweak,whilein1990only17percentandin1994only7percentfeltthatitwastoostrong.Betweenthetwosurveys,theproportionofthoseopposedtothesaleofHungariancompaniestoforeignersmorethandoubled,whiletheproportionofthosesupportingtheprivatizationoftheirownplacesofemploymentdecreasedfrom54to22percent.

5

Changesofopinionareconnectedwiththeprogressofprivatization,changesintherangeofcompaniesstillinpublicownershipandthe

decreaseininflation.Inthiscase,however,causesarelessimportantthantheeffect:theeconomicattitudesoftheHungarianelectoratetookasignificantandconsistentturntotheleft.Forallofthequestionsconsidered,theincreaseintheMSZPvotewasmuchgreaterinleft-wingopiniongroupsthaninright-wingones.SZDSZvotersareconsistentlyover-representedintheright-winggroupsinbothyears,butthereisnoindicationthatthecorrelationbetweeneconomicpolicyattitudesandSZDSZvotingbecameanystronger.ThesituationisdifferentwiththeMDF.Among1990MDFvoters,forasmallproportionofquestions,theleft-winggroupandfortheotherstheright-winggroup,appearstobeover-representedtoastatisticallyinsignificantdegree;bycontrast,in1994theright-winggroupisover-representedforalmostallofthesevenquestionsamongMDFvoters.Whiletheelectoralbasesofthe

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FKGPandtheKDNPwerealittlemoreleft-thanright-wing,especiallyin1990,inthecaseofthethreesmallerparliamentarypartiesthereappearstobenoconsistentcorrelationbetweenvotescastandeconomicattitudeseitherin1990orin1994.

Inastatisticalsense(expressedbytheetacoefficient),in1994respondents'choiceofpartywasmorestronglyrelatedtotheirageorchurch-goinghabitsthantotheirresponsestoanyoftheeconomicpolicyquestions.However,whilethestrengthofthefirsttwocorrelationsdidnotincreasefrom1990to1994,themajorityofthelastsevenand,mostsignificantly,theiraveragedid.Thus,contrarytotheobservationsofthefirstyearortwooftheAntallgovernment(seeTóka,1993),consideringthe1990-4periodasawhole,thepolarizationoftheelectoralbasesoftheHungarianpartiesdidnotincreasewithrespecttogenerationalandreligiousdivisionswhichwerealreadyimportantin1990butpolarizationdidincreasewithrespecttoeconomicpolicyattitudes.

Whateffectdidthishaveonthecompositionoftheparties'electoralbases?Howevertemptingitistoassumethatthepartiesingovernmentlostsupportamongthoseharmedbythetransformationoftheeconomy,andthatMSZPgainscamemostlyfromthisgroup,thehypothesisisdifficulttotest.First,variousanalystsdisagreeoverwhothemainloserswere:pensioners,thoseunabletocompensateforlossesbytakingonextrawork;youngpeopleandunskilledmanualworkers,mostatriskfromunemployment;themiddleclasses;workersinagricultureandothersectorsincrisis.Thelistissoall-embracingthatitishardtosaywhichgroupsarelikelytoshowaswingbelowthenationalaverage.Iftheproportionofsuchgroupsintheelectorateisassmallasitisforentrepreneurs,itishardlypossiblethatanysignificantgroupshouldshowMSZPgainsorMDFlossesconsiderablyabovethenationalaverage.

Second,thesubculturalembeddednessofHungarianelectoralbehaviourreflectedmostofallintermsofgenerationalandreligiousdifferences,aswellasformerMSZMPmembershipremainedthefundamentaldeterminantofpartypreferencesin1994aswellasin1990.Thisisparticularlyimportantastheageandreligiouscompositionofthevariousconstituenciesalsohaveaneffectontheirsocio-economiccomposition.Anyunderstandingofthesocio-economicchangesbetween1990and1994mustbeginwithananalysisofsubculturalfactors.Here,wecanonlygiveabriefoverviewofthefigures.ComparingthedatafromtheexitpollandtheCEUstudywiththeresultsofthe1990TÁRKIstudy,onlytheelectoralbaseoftheKDNPremainedthesameintermsofreligion.SupportfortheFKGPdecreasedbyabout10percentamong

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weeklychurchgoers,whilehardlyatallintheothergroups.Atthesametime,theelectoralbasesoftheFIDESZandtheSZDSZshiftedslightlytowardsmorereligiousvoters.Nevertheless,thestrengthoftheconnectionbetweenchurchgoingandpartychoicedidnotdecrease,becausetheMSZP'sgainsandtheMDF'slossesbothshowanegativecorrelationwithreligiosity:eachwasroughlytwiceasstrongamongnon-church-goersasamongweeklychurchgoers.

ItisalsotruethatingeneralthelossesoftheMDF,theSZDSZandtheFIDESZ,aswellasthegainsoftheMSZP,werebelowthenationalaveragemostlyamongthemoretraditionalsubculturesofsociety,whilethelossesoftheFKGP,whichshiftedfromthemoretraditionalChristianright-winglinetowardsamoreradicalanti-establishmentstance,werethegreatestinthesesamegroups.ThegainsoftheMSZPandthelossesoftheMDF,theSZDSZandtheFIDESZwerebelowaverageinruralareas,whereasthelossesoftheFKGPwereabovethenationaltrend.WhiletheurbanbiasoftheMSZPbasegrewmarginallyincomparisonwithits1990level,thatoftheSZDSZdecreased,thatoftheFIDESZbecamepracticallynon-existentandthatoftheMDFreversed.

Comparisonsintermsofagearesimilar,showingabove-averagelossesfortheFKGPandbelow-averagelossesfortheMDFinthemoretraditional(i.e.ruralandolder)socialgroups.Intheelectoralbasesoftheotherpartiesthereislittlechangeinagegroupcompositioncomparedto1990:inbothelections,theMSZPwasmostattractivetothemiddleagedandleastattractivetotheyoung.Theconnectionsbetweentheliberalvoteandtheyoung,andbetweentheolderagegroupsandtheworkers'party,socialdemocraticandKDNPvotesshownochangeindirectionorstrength.

Occupation,EducationandPartyChoice

Comparingthedatafromtheexitpollwiththeopinionpollsof1990,wedonotfindasingleeducationaloroccupationalgroupwithinwhichtheproportionsofvotesforanyofthesixmajorpartiesdifferedfromthenationaltrendinexcessoftherelativelylargestatisticalerrormarginsofthe1990samplebetweenthetwoelections.Ontheotherhand,duetothenegligible1994statisticalerrorforthelargesampleoftheexitpoll,andtheagreementbetweenthecorrespondingresultsofallavailableopinionpollsfrom1990,itislikelythattheMDFelectoralbaseshiftedslightlytowardsgroupsoflowereducationalandoccupationalstatusbetween

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1990and1994,whilethatoftheMSZPmovedtowardsnon-agriculturalmanualworkers.Whileaccordingtothe1990opinionpolls,thoseofhigherstatusweregenerallyover-representedamongvotersofbothparties(inparticular,non-manualemployeesinthecaseoftheMDF,managementfortheMSZP),by1994thesituationhadchanged.ItisprobablethatMSZP'sgaininvotes,whichaveraged22percentnationally,wasafewpercentagepointsmoreamongmanualworkers,whiletheMDF'slosswasasmuchas10percentsmalleramonglesseducatedgroupsthannationally.

Yetthefactthattheireffectmanifesteditselfdifferentlyinindividualagegroupsalreadyindicatesthatdifferencesinstatuswerestillonlysecondarydeterminantsofpartypreferencein1994.Withtheexceptionofafewsmallerparties,aconsistentcorrespondencebetweenlevelofeducationandvoteoverallagegroupscanonlybeestablishedinthecaseoftheFKGP,generallysupportedbythoseofthelowesteducationallevel,andtheSZDSZ,generallysupportedbymoreeducatedpeople.Buteventhisobservationneedstobequalified.Whatseemstobethemostinterestingphenomenonisthatthestrengthofthecorrelationbetweeneducationallevelandvotecastfortheliberalpartiesdecreaseswithincreasingage,whilethedirectionofthecorrelationbetweenworkers'partyandMSZPvotesontheonehand,andeducationallevelontheother,isreversed.

Themoredetailedfigures(whicharenotshownforreasonsofspace)showthatwhileamong1829,30-9and40-9year-oldgraduatestheorthodox(Communist)Workers'Partyonlyattracted0.4,0.9and1.6percentofthevoterespectively,inthesameagegroups,amongthosewithfewerthaneightyearsofprimaryeducationitsshareofthevotewas13.8,11.0and9.2percent,respectively.Incontrast,inthestrongestagegroupoftheWorkers'Party,thosebornbetween1924and1934,theyattracted8.1percentofthegraduatevote,butonly5.1percentofthosewithfewerthaneightyearsofschooling.Thesame

trendisobservablewiththeMSZP,thoughinalessextremeform.Whileamongthoseunder40thepartyreceivedtheleastsupportfromgraduatesandthemostsupportfrompeoplewithonlyprimaryeducation,amongpeopleover40educationallevelandtheproportionofMSZPvotesrosetogether.Theextremecaseisagainthegenerationwhoreachedadulthoodinthe1940sandearly1950s(whoareagedintheirsixtiestoday):47percentofgraduates,31percentofpeoplewitheightyearsofschoolingand24percentofthelesseducatedvotedfortheMSZP.TheKDNPonlybecomesthepartyofthelessratherthanthemoreeducatedamongpeopleaged

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Table10.5:MSZPvotersbyageandoccupation(1860years)a(%)(Agegroupings)

1820 3039 4049 5059Unemployedonbenefit 20 29 36 36Agriculturalmanualworkersb 21 27 33 30Professionals 23 26 38 36Top/middlemanagers 20 30 42 41Othernon-manualworkers 22 29 37 36Foremenandskilledworkers 26 32 38 38Unskilledworkers 26 33 37 34Inactivec 20 29 35 35aRespondentswereaskedtochooseoneof13groupsofeconomicactivitiesandoccupationsthatbestdescribedtheircircumstancesbIncludesself-employedfarmerscIncludespensioners,mothersonchildcareandchildbenefitandthedependentSource:Népszabadság-Mediánexit-poll(8May1994)

over50.Amongyoungerpeople,itenjoysmarginallymoresupportfromgraduatesthanfromothersinthesameagegroup.

ThedistributionofMSZPvotesisonlymarginallycorrelatedwithoccupationalgroup(Table10.5).Amongpeopleover40itisthoseinmanagerialpositions,followedbyskilledworkersandintellectuals,whovotedforthemmostfrequently.Amongthoseunder40theproportionofMSZPvotersshowsasharpdecline,especiallyamongmanagers,andothernon-manualworkers.Intheseagegroupswewitnessapositiveclassvote:heretheMSZPissupportedmostlybynon-agriculturalmanualworkers.TodayitisdifficulttosaywhetherthatrepresentssomeformofpotentialadvantageorratheranunusualweaknessoftheMSZPamongtheyoungerpartoftheelite.However,itiscertainlytruetosaythattheoccupationalgroupcompositionoftheMSZP'selectoralbasehaschangedsomewhatcomparedto1990;

amongtheinactive,agriculturalworkersandtheunemployedthatsupportfortheMSZPdidnotevenreachtheagegroupaveragewithinanyagegroup.

Conclusion

The1994Hungarianelectionarenawasdividedintotwodifferentworlds.Inthefirstgrouppeopleover40or50chosebetweentheleft,supportedmainlybywhite-collarworkers,andtheChristian-nationalpartiesmainlyrepresentingpeopleoflowstatus.Inthesecondworld

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peopleunder40werepolarizedonaclassicalclassbasisbetweenthesecularleft-wingpartiesoftheindustrialworkersandtheliberalpartiesofthoseofhigherstatus.FollowingPoland,SlovakiaandtheCzechRepublic,theeconomicpolicyissuewasinstitutionalizedasasignificantelectoraldivideinHungaryaswell.Nevertheless,noteventhisdevelopmentwasabletotransformthevolatilecharacterofpartyloyalties.

Ourresultschallengesomecommonwisdomaboutnewpartysystems.First,wehaveshownthathighlevelsofvolatility(thatistheweaknessofpartyloyalties)can,andinEastCentralEuropedo,gotogetherwithrelativelystrongstatisticalassociationbetweenpartychoiceandvarioussocio-culturalcharacteristicsofthevoters.Thedirectionofthesecorrelationsseemstobemaintainedovertime:inthatrespectweseenosignsofhighvolatility.However,thestrengthofsomecorrelationsprobablystemsmorefromthesuperficialityofthecluesthatthevotersutilizeinmakingtheirchoicesthanfromastrongsocialembeddednessofthenewparties.Second,theempiricalevidenceofHungarysuggeststhatpartyloyaltiesarenotgettinganystrongereitherbythemereageingofthepartysystem,orbytheriseofclassvotingorbytheincreaseinissuevotingsuchassuggestedbyTable10.4.Indeed,commercialpolls(seeSzonda-IpsosReport,Népszabadság,10July1995,page8)alreadysuggestthattheswingfromgovernmenttooppositionpartieswasevenbiggerinthefirstyearoftheHorngovernment(1994-5)thanitwasduringthefirstyearoftheAntallgovernment(1990-1).ArelativelystrongstructurationofthevoteisfoundinEastCentralEurope,yetthisisnotinconsistentwithhighlevelsofvolatility.

Notes

1Thisessaywaswrittenaspartofaresearchproject(codeF006900)supportedbytheHungarianNationalScientificResearchFund

(OTKA).

2TheexpressioncoverstheSocialDemocrats(CSSD),thetwoMoravianpartiestreatedhereunderoneheading(HSD-SMS)andtheGreen,socialistandagrarianpartiesformingtheSocial-LiberalUnion,allofwhommaybeclassifiedasbeingtotheleftofthecentristCivicDemocraticPartyofKlaus(ODS),theCivicMovement(OH)andtheCivicDemocraticAlliance,whichwereingovernmentatthetimethedatawerecollected.

3ItisespeciallystrikingthatthistendencyisapparenteveninPoland,despitethefactthatourpartypreferencevariablewasnotsimplymeasuringvotestobecastfortheSDRPbutfortheDemocraticLeft(acommonelectionlistwhichincludedthepost-Communistparty,theunionallianceOPZZandother,smallerleft-winggroups).

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4Hungarianelectionsareconductedintworounds.Inthefirst,votersmaycasttwoseparatevotes.

5Forthepurposeofanalysingthelastquestion,onlyanswersgivenbysubjectsactivelyemployedatthetimeofquestioningbutnotemployedbysomenationalorlocalauthorityorintheprivatesectorwereconsidered.

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Dohnalik,Jacek,Hartl,Jan,Jasiewich,Krzysztof,Markowski,Radoslaw,Mateju,Peter,Rezler,Lubos,Tóka,GáborandTucek,Milan,1991.DismantlingoftheSocialSafetyNetandItsPoliticalConsequencesinEastCentralEurope.AnInternationalComparativeStudyinitiatedandsponsoredbytheInstituteofEast-WestStudies,NY,Prague.Machine-ReadableDataFile.Distributors:IEWS,NewYorkandTÁRKI,Budapest.

Klingemann,Hans-DieterandWattenberg,MartinP.,1992.DecayingVersusDevelopingPartySystems:AComparisonofPartyImagesintheUnitedStatesandWestGermany.BritishJournalofPoliticalScience,22,131-49.

Lipset,SeymourM.andRokkan,Stein,1967.CleavageStructures,PartySystemsandVoterAlignments.Introduction.InSeymourM.LipsetandSteinRokkan,eds,PartySystemsandVoterAlignments.Cross-NationalPerspectives.NewYork:TheFreePress.

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Chapter11TheLongandTheShortofTransformationinCentralEuropeRichardRose

HUNGARYhasalwaysbeenpartofCentralEurope,butastheboundariesofCentralEuropehaveshiftedithassometimesfounditselftoofarEast.ThiswastrueduringthecenturyofOttomanoccupation,anditwasagainthecaseafterSoviettroopsarrivedinBudapestin1945.FormostofmodernEuropeanhistory,theHabsburgempirewasthecentralkingdomofCentralEurope,andHungarywaspartofthisempire.BetweenthewarsHungarywasaCentralEuropeanstatethatsharedwithAustria,Germany,Polandandothercountriesintheregiontheexperienceofabriefattemptatdemocratization,thenauthoritarianruleandsevereeconomicdepression.

TheIronCurtainthatseparatedCommunistcountriesfromWesternEuropedeniedtheveryideaofMitteleuropaandHungarywasindubitablyontheeasternsideoftheCurtain.MoscowmadeitselfthefocalpointforgovernmentthroughouttheSovietbloc.ThecollapseoftheIronCurtainin1989,withHungarythefirstcountrytoopenitsboundariestotheWest,hasmadeCentralEuropeonceagainameaningfulpoliticalfact.TheDanubeoriginatesinsouth-westGermany,andflowsthroughAustriabeforeitbecomesaborderbetweenSlovakiaandHungary.AndBudapestandViennaareinmanysensesclosertoeachotherthantosmallercitiesandtownsintheirowncountries.

WithneighbouringcountriesinCentralEuropeinthepost-warera,Hungarianshavesharedtheexperienceofafundamentaltransformationinsocialconditions.Health,educationandmaterial

standardsoflivinghavechangedfundamentallysincethebeginningofthetwentieth

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century,andtheyhavechangeddramaticallybetweentheendoftheSecondWorldWarandthepresent(seee.g.Rose,1994).Butbecauseoffortyyearsofdivision,theCentralEuropetowhichHungarynowbelongsisnotthesameasbefore.ThereisnowafaultlinewithinCentralEurope,forfourdecadesoflivinginaCommunistsystemmeantthatHungary,CzechoslovakiaandPolandprogressedataslowertempo,aswellasinadifferentmanner,fromcountriesoutsidetheSovietbloc.ThiscanbedemonstratedmostdramaticallybydifferencesbetweenthetwopartsofGermany(RoseandHaerpfer,1997).

ThefirstobjectofthischapteristomeasuretheimpactofCommunismonHungarybycomparingtrendstherewithneighbouringandhistoricallylinkedcountriesAustria,Czechoslovakia,GermanyandPoland.BecausetheIronCurtaindividedCentralEurope,countriesthatsharedmuchincommonupto1945havedivergedsince.ComparingHungarywithPoland,CzechoslovakiaandtheGermanDemocraticRepublicprovidesevidenceofhowHungariansprogressedcomparedtootherSoviet-dominatedsocieties.ComparingHungarywithAustriaandtheFederalRepublicofGermanyyieldsinsightsintodifferencescreatedbyamarketasagainstanonmarketeconomy,andademocraticasagainstanundemocraticpoliticalsystem.

Withhindsight,countriesthatwerefreetosidewiththeWestduringthecoldwarerawereobviouslybetteroff.ButthepointwasnotsoobviouswhentheIronCurtainwasputinplace.GermancitieshadbeenbombedflatasaconsequenceofHitler'sdeterminationtofightthewartothebitterend,andGermanfoodrationswereatsubsistencelevels.AustriahadbeenincorporatedintheThirdGermanReichin1938and,whileseparatedafter1945,itsufferedfour-powermilitaryoccupationforadecade.AustriaonlyescapedGerman-stylepartitionbythe1955PeaceTreatythatledtothewithdrawalofSoviettroops

fromAustriaandanAustriancommitmenttoformalneutralitybetweenEastandWest.

Second,thechapterassessestransformationinthe1990s.Thedescriptionofeconomictransformationasaninterruptionineconometrictime-seriesanalysisisanEnglishunderstatement.Moreover,transformationcancauseabruptshort-termreversals.Thisismostevidentintheeconomy,whereinflationrateshavesoaredandthenfallen,andwhereunemploymenthasreplacedtheCommunistpracticesofover-employmentandunder-utilizationoftheproductivecapacitiesofemployees.Itisalsoregisteredbytheswingoftheelectoralpendulumincompetitionbetweendemocraticparties.

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MakingProgressandFallingBehindinSocialConditions

Absoluteprogressisthetwentieth-centurynormoveranyperiodaslongasadecadeorgeneration.BycomparisonwithneighbouringcountriesintheCommunistbloc,Hungariansoftenappearedahead.Forexample,inpoliticalandcivilrights,Hungaryinthemid-1980swastheleastilliberaloftheSovietblocregimes(Gastil,1987),toleratingdiverseformsofexpressionthatdidnotthreatentheregime.TheeconomywasrelativelyopenandtheprivatesectormoretoleratedthanintheapparentlyprosperousbuthighlyregimentedEastGermanregime.

ButwhencomparedwithAustriaandtheFederalRepublicofGermany,therecordofCommunistHungaryappearsdifferent.ThisshowstheextenttowhichprogressinHungarywasslowcomparedtosocietiesalsodevastatedbywarandinterwardepressionbutwithoutaCommunistregime.WhilelivingconditionsinHungaryprogressedintheabsolutesense,therateofchangewassoslowthatHungarywassimultaneouslyfallingbehindAustriaandWestGermany.ComparisonacrosstheIronCurtainemphasizesthattheshockoftransformationmayalsobeviewedasliberationfromthedeadweightofasystemholdingpeopleback.

ThecollapseoftheSovietblochascreatednewopportunitiesforHungarians.Butitcannotremoveovernightthelegacyofthepreviousfourdecadesandthefirstlawofeconomicsisthattherearenobenefitswithoutcosts.Inastablesociety,focusingontheshorttermcanemphasizestability,forpopulationstendtochangeverygraduallyandmajorchangescanrequirethecompoundingofsmallannualratesofchangefordecadesbeforethemomentumofinertiatriggersvisiblemajorchanges.Inpost-Communistsocieties,thislogicdoesnotapply,forthebiggestchangesarequalitative;theyaffectwhatwemeasure.Thisismostobviousinpolitics,whereoldandnewareincomparable:

forexample,votinginafreeasagainstanunfreeelection.Itisalsoevidentinseeminglysmalldetails.Forexample,whilethenumberofyouthsinsecondaryeducationmayremainconstant,transformationhastriggeredanabruptshiftfrompupilsstudyingRussiantothefreechoiceofstudyingEnglishorGerman.

Theyear1989isthebaselineformeasuringshort-termchanges.Insofarasdeclineinsocialconditionshasstoppedandimprovementsbeguninthemid-1990s,thecostoftransformationisonlythelossofafewyearsofprogressratherthandecadesofopportunities.Combiningthe

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analysisoflong-termandshort-termchangeenablesustounderstandtheextenttowhichHungaryhasmadeprogressinthepasthalf-centuryandyethowmuchitisnowunderpressuretocatchupwithCentralEuropeanneighboursthatwerenotsubjecttoCommunistrule.

Mattersoflifeanddeath

TurmoilandlosshavebeenassignificantasprogressintwentiethcenturyCentralEurope.Thisisespeciallyvisibleinpopulationstatistics.HungaryexperiencedadrasticlossofpopulationasaconsequenceofboundarychangesaftertheFirstWorldWar.DuringtheSecondWorldWar,Hungarians,andevenmore,minoritieslivinginHungarysuchasJewsandgypsies,sufferedlossoflife.Sincethen,theaggregatepopulationofHungaryhasalteredverylittle,increasingbyonly12percentsince1948.However,thepopulationcanhardlybedescribedasstagnant,giventhatthemedianHungarianadultwasbornaboutthetimeofthe1956HungarianRevolution,whereasthemedianadultin1948wasbornundertheHabsburgcrown.

Regardlessoftheflagthatfliesoveracityandwhateverthenationalcurrency,lifeanddeatharesignificanttoeveryone.InCentralEuropetherearegoodlong-termstatisticsforinfantmortality,thelikelihoodthatachildwillsurviveforatleastayearafterbirth(Table11.1)WithinHungarygreatprogresshasbeenachievedinreducinginfantmortality.In1949,theratewas91deathsperthousand;bytheendoftheCommunisterain1989itstoodat16deathsperthousand,afallof82percent.AdramaticdecreaseininfantmortalitywasnotuniquetoHungary;itwascommonthroughoutEurope.

WhileinabsolutetermsHungaryhasmadegreatprogressinreducinginfantmortality,incomparativetermsithasbeenfallingbehind.In1949therateofinfantmortalityinHungarywaslowerthaninAustria.FollowingthewithdrawalofSoviettroopsandthenormalizationoflifeinthewholeofAustriain1955,infantmortality

showedadramaticdropthere,parallelingtheachievementintheFederalRepublicofGermany,andcontinuingtofallthereafter.By1989,eventhoughHungaryhadbeenmakinggreatprogress,infantmortalityinAustriawashalfthatofHungary.

Similarly,Czechoslovakiashowssubstantialprogressyetisfallingbehind.In1949itsinfantmortalityratewaswellbelowAustriaandalmostthesameasinbothhalvesofGermany.By1989,thefinalyearoftheCommunistera,infantmortalityinCzechoslovakiawashalfagain

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Table11.1:InfantmortalityinCentralEuropeA.LongTerm1949 1960 1970 1980 1989 Change

Infantmortality(deathsper1000)Germany:East 72 39 19 12 8 -64Germany:Fed.Republic 75 34 24 13 8 -67Austria 92 38 26 14 8 -84Czechoslovakia 78 24 22 18 12 -66HUNGARY 91 48 36 23 16 -75Poland 108 57 33 21 19 -89

B.ShortTerm1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Change

(Deathsper1000livebirths)Germany 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 -3Austria 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 -3CzechR 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 -4Slovakia 14 12 13 13 11 11 11 11 -3HUNGARY 16 15 16 14 13 12 11 11 -5Poland 19 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 -5Sources:UN,thenOECDHealthStatistics.Communistcountries:UnitedNationsandWorldBankstatistics,plusInternationalChildDevelopmentCentre,ChildrenatRiskinCentralandEasternEurope.Florence:ICDC/INICEFRegionalMonitoringReportNo.4,1997,p.155;OECDfor1996

thatintheFederalRepublic,theGermanDemocraticRepublicandAustria.Polandshowedthegreatestabsoluteimprovementbetween1949and1989,butonlybecauseitsinfantmortalitywasrelativelyhighatthebeginning.ItsinfantmortalityratehasnowcaughtupwithHungary,buthasfallenbehindrelativetoAustriaandGermany.

Infantmortalityhasbeenlittleaffectedbytheshort-termshocksofpoliticalandeconomictransformation.In1989Hungaryhadsixteen

infantdeathsperthousand;ithasnowfallentoeleven(Table11.1).InPoland,thenumberofdeathshasfallenbythesameamount.ThedecreasewaslessintheCzechRepublic,AustriaandGermanybecausethestartingpointwaslower;however,theproportionatechangewassimilar.Slovakiashowedaslowerrateofimprovementthanitsneighbours.Consistentwiththelogicoftransformationasashock,infantmortalityactuallyrosebyoneperthousandbetween1990and1991,apatternalsofoundintheCzechRepublicandSlovakia.However,thereversalwastemporaryandimprovementsininfantmortalityhaveaccel-

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eratedsince.InHungary,infantmortalityfellbyacompoundannualrateof6.6percentannuallysince1989,comparedtoanannualrateofimprovementof4.4percentbetween1980to1989,thefinaldecadeoftheCommunistregime.

WhilethelevelofinfantmortalityremainshigherinHungarythaninAustriaorGermany,thesizeofthegapisdecreasing.In1989deathsfrominfantmortalitywereeightperthousandgreaterinHungarythaninAustriaortheFederalRepublicofGermany;by1996,thegaphadbeenreducedtosix.Moreover,becauseinfantmortalityisimprovingatafasterannualrateinHungarythaninAustriaorGermany,therearenowprospectsforHungarycatchingupintheforeseeablefutureonthisimportantmeasureofhealth.

WhilelifeexpectancyhasbeenrisingacrossEurope,therearesubstantialcumulativedifferencesintherateofimprovement.Hungaryisdistinctivebecauseithasalsobeenfallingbehinditsneighbours,evenwhilelifeexpectancyisrising.In1949thelifeexpectancyofHungarianwomenwasayearhigherthaninPoland,butby1989Polandhadattainedahigherlifeexpectancy.HungarywasatthebottomforlifeexpectancyamongCentralEuropeanwomen(Table11.2A).ThelifeexpectancyofHungarianmaleshasfollowedasimilartrajectory,exceptthatthegapbetweenHungaryandneighbouringcountrieshaswidenedevenmore.In1949Hungarianmencouldexpecttoliveanaverageoffifty-eightyears,threeyearsmorethaninPolandandoneyearlongerthaninGermany.By1989lifeexpectancyforHungarianmenhadrisenbysevenyears,butbecauseithadrisenbyelevenyearsinPolandandfifteenyearsinpostwarFederalGermany,HungarywasatthebottominlifeexpectancyinCentralEurope.

Thenormalpatternoflifeexpectancyinanadvancedindustrialsocietyisthatitincreasesbyaseeminglysmallratefromoneyearto

thenext,resultinginasubstantialincreaseinlongevityfromonedecadetothenext.However,inHungaryimprovementinwomen'slifeexpectancybegantoslowdowninthelate1960sandthenshowedsignsofstagnating.Between1966and1980femalelifeexpectancyimprovedbyonlythree-fifthsofayear.Inthe1980s,theratewasvirtuallystatic.Bycontrast,inthesametwodecadesthelifeexpectancyofwomenrosebymorethanfiveyearsinAustriaandtheFederalRepublicofGermany.ThelifeexpectancyofHungarianmenhasshownanevenworsetrajectory:insteadofstagnatingithasactuallydeclinedsince1966,whenlifeexpectancywas67.5years.By1989,malelifeexpectancywaslowerthanin1960(seeTable2.4above).

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Table11.2:Life-expectancytrendsinCentralEuropeALong-termChanges

1949 1960 1970 1980 1989 ChangeFemaleLifeexpectancy(years)

Austria 67 72 73 76 79 12Germany:FedRepublic 68 72 74 77 79 11GDR 69 72 72 75 76 7Czechoslavakia 65 73 73 74 75 10Poland 62 70 73 75 75 13HUNGARY 63 70 72 73 74 11

B.Short-termChangesB.Short-termChanges1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Change

Women(years)Austria 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.7 80.1 80.2 1.4Germany 79.0 79.2 78.8 79.8 79.3 79.3 79.5 79.9 0.9CzechR 75.4 76.0 75.7 76.1 76.6 76.6 76.9 77.6 2.2Poland 75.5 75.5 75.3 75.7 76.0 76.1 76.4 76.4 0.9Slovakia 75.4 75.4 75.2 75.3 76.7 76.5 76.3 76.7 1.3HUNGARY 73.8 73.7 73.8 73.7 73.8 74.2 74.5 74.7 0.9

MenAustria 72.1 72.5 72.6 72.9 72.9 73.3 73.5 73.9 1.8Germany 72.6 72.0 72.2 72.6 72.8 72.8 73.0 73.6 1.0CzechR 68.1 67.5 68.2 68.5 68.9 69.5 70.0 70.5 2.4Slovakia 66.9 66.6 66.8 66.8 68.4 68.3 68.4 68.8 1.9Poland 66.8 66.5 66.1 66.7 67.4 67.5 67.6 67.6 0.8HUNGARY 65.4 65.1 65.0 64.6 64.5 64.5 65.3 66.6 1.2Sources:GermanyandAustria:UN,thenOECDHealthStatistics.UNDemographicYearbook,1979,specialhistoricalsupplement.WorldHealthOrganization.InternationalChildDevelopmentCentre,ChildrenatRiskinCentralandEasternEurope.RegionalMonitoringReportNo.4,1997,p.123,OECDfiguresfor1996

TheimpactofdecadesofpoorhealthhascontinuedinHungarysince

transformation.HungarianwomenhavethelowestlifeexpectancyinCentralEurope.ThepositionofHungarianmenhasworsenedrelatively.ThelifeexpectancyofmenissevenyearslessthanofAustrians,andayearlessthanforPoles.TheabnormaltrenddownwardhascreatedthebiggestgendergapinEurope.By1996Hungarianmencouldexpecttolive8.1yearslessthanwomen,whereasinGermanyandAustriathegendergapis6.3years.ThewideninggendergapreflectsgrowingcausesofprematuredeathinHungary,includingacutealcoholism,automobileandindustrialaccidents.Thesewereincreasingsignificantly

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inHungarybeforepoliticaltransformation.Forexample,deathsfromcirrhosisoftheliverincreasedfromtwenty-eightperhundredthousandtofifty-twobetween1980and1989,andreachedeighty-twoby1993(Table1.9above;seealso,Table2.5).

IneveryEuropeancountryeducationhasimprovedsomuchinthiscenturythattheverymeasuresusedtoevaluateachievementshavebeentransformed.Initially,literacywasthegoal;thespreadofmasseducationmeantthatbythe1930smorethannine-tenthsofHungarianadultswereliterate,aproportiongreaterthaninMediterraneancountriesfromGreeceandItalytoSpainandPortugal,andalsomorethaninPoland(Rose,1994:Table19),andcompleteliteracyfollowedaftertheSecondWorldWar.

ThepostwardevelopmentofeducationinHungaryinitiallyinvolvedtheprovisionoffreesecondaryeducationforall,withseparatecoursesandschoolsforacademic,vocationalandtechnicaleducation.Thisraisedtheskillleveloftheadultlabourforce,andincreasedtheminorityqualifiedtoentertertiaryeducation.TheproportionofHungarianyouthscompletingtertiaryeducationhasmorethantrebledsince1960,andincreasedbyalmosthalfbetween1970and1989(Table1.3above).Trendsineducationsince1989cannoteasilybemonitored,becausethecompulsoryelementmakesparticipationineducationhigh,andstructuralchangesatsecondaryandtertiarylevelshaveintroduceddiscontinuitiesinstatistics.Theevidenceindicatesthatparticipationinfurthereducationhasnotfallen,andinsomecasesmayhaverisensince1989(cf.ICDC,1997:159ff).

Figure11.1MathematicalachievementofCentralEuropeanyouthsSource:InternationalAssociationfortheEvaluationofEducationalAchievement,asreportedin

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Cross-nationalcomparisonsineducationalachievementaremoredifficultthancomparisonsofhealth,fortheorganizationofeducationdiffersfromcountrytocountry.Inanattempttocompareachievementsdirectly,internationaltestsincoreschoolsubjectsareadministeredinmanyadvancedindustrialsocieties.Mathematicsisparticularlysuitableforinternationalcomparison,sincequestionscanliterallybethesameineverycountry,whichisnotthecasewithreadingandlanguagetests.Ontheinternationalmathematicalachievementtestforsecondaryschoolpupils,Hungaryranksfourteenthamongforty-onecountries.ItisbehindtheCzechRepublic,aEuropeanleader,andAustria,butclearlyaheadofGermany,BritainandtheUnitedStates(Figure11.1).Inaparalleltestofachievementinscience,Hungaryranksninthamongforty-onecountries,justbehindAustriaandtheCzechRepublic,theEuropeanleader.

MaterialConditions

Anonmarketeconomyisdifferentinkindfromamarketeconomy,forpricesaresetbybureaucraticcommandsratherthanthemarket,individualslackthefreedomtochangejobsorbargainforwagesandthestateallocatesbenefitsonthebasisofpartyloyaltyaswellasneed,substitutingpoliticalcapitalforeconomiccapital.Insuchcircumstances,anyattempttocompareeconomictrendsinCentralEuropebycitingeconomicstatisticsfortworadicallydifferenttypesofeconomycompoundstheconfusion,asGermanslearnedoncetheEastGermaneconomywasopeneduptothemarketeconomyoftheFederalRepublic(seee.g.Mareretal.,1992;Lavigne,1995).

Carownershipoffersasimplematerialindicatorofmasslivingstandards,forastheaverageincomeinasocietyrises,sotoodoesautomobileownership.ImmediatelyaftertheSecondWorldWar,carownershipwasaluxurythroughoutEurope.Forexample,inthe

FederalRepublicofGermanyin1950,therewereonlythirteencarsperthousandpeopleandinAustriaonlyseven,comparedto266intheUnitedStates.Withincreasedaffluence,carownershiphassteadilyrisenthroughoutEurope,andinWesternEuropemuchofthegapwiththeUnitedStateshasbeenclosed(Fig.11.2).

Withincommandeconomies,theriseincarownershiphasbeendramatictoo.Between1960and1989carownershipincreasedmorethanfortytimesinHungary,thirtytimesinPolandandeleventimesin

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Figure11.2Carownership:makingprogressandfallingbehindSource:United

NationsDemographicYearbook(variousyears).FinalyearforEastandWest

Germanyis1993,andforCzechoslovakia,1991

CzechoslovakiaandinEastGermany.Butgreatincreaseswereduetoaverylowstartingpoint.In1960,theearliestyearwithcomparativedata,carownershipinHungaryandPolandwaslessthaninAustriaorGermanyin1950,andonlyone-twentieththeWestGermanratein1960.Theconsumerboomincommandeconomiesbeganinthe1960s;withinadecadecarownershiphadincreasedbyalmostsixtimesinHungary.However,allthecommandeconomiesinabsolutetermsfellfurtherbehindAustriaandWestGermany,whichhadbeenmakingprogressatamuchfasterrate.AtthetimetheBerlinWallfell,carownershipinHungaryhadrisento164perthousand,athirdhigherthanPolandbutbehindCzechoslovakiaandEastGermany.However,theabsolutegapbetweenWestGermanyandAustriaandHungarywasstillthesame.

Carownershiphighlightsthefactthatcomparingnumbersofcarsisnotacomparisonoflikewithlike,becauseofgreatdifferencesinqualitybetweencarsinthetwosystems.TheEastGermanTrabantorWartburgwasfarinferiorineveryrespect,includingtheavoidanceofpollution,tocarsproducedintheWesterneconomiesofCentralEurope,suchasthe

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VolkswagenorVauxhall.After1989,whenconsumersweregivenfreedomtochoose,thedemandforcarswasdoublyintense,assomeHungarians,Poles,CzechsandSlovaksbecamefirsttimebuyersofcars,andotherstradedupfromanonmarketcartoacarthatcouldmeetthestandardsofbuyersinacompetitiveEuropeanmarket.Thus,thebigincreaseincarownershipinHungary,up29percentbetween1989and1994,comparedto16percentinAustria,understatesanevenbiggerimprovementinquality.

Sincepricesandwagesdifferradicallyfromonemarketeconomytoanother,convertingthesesumsintoUnitedStatesdollarsdoesnotgivethemostaccuratepictureofcurrentlivingstandards.Forexample,aSwedishincomethatsoundsbigindollarsisrapidlycutdowntosizewhenrelatedtoSwedishprices.Evenwheninflationdollarizesaneconomy,becausetheinflationassociatedwithtransformationtemporarilymakesanationalcurrencyworthlessforpurposesofforeignexchange,thedollardoesnotfullyassessincomebecausepeopletendtoreactbygettingoutofmoney,thatis,relyingonfoodandotherthingstheycanproduceforthemselves,particularlyinasocietysuchasHungary,whereunofficialeconomiesflourishedunderCommunism.

Todealwithdisparitiesbetweennationallivingcostsandforeignexchangerates,theOECDhasdevelopedameasureofpercapitaincomeadjustedtoachievepurchasingpowerparity(PPP)withtheAmericandollar.Thisraisestherealvalueofmoneyinlow-incomecountries,wherepricesofbasicgoodstendtobelow,anddepressestheapparentrichesofhigh-incomeandhigh-costScandinaviancountries.ThegapbetweenthecommandeconomiesandthemarketeconomiesofCentralEuroperemainslargeevenafterthisisdone(Figure11.3).TheleadingcountryinPPPadjustedGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)percapitaistheCzechRepublic,butincomethereitbarelyhalfthatintheFederalRepublicevenaftertheburdensofthe

fivenewEastGermanlandsareincluded.CzechGDPisalsolessthanthatofthepoorestcountryintheEuropeanUnion,Greece($12,730).TheestimatedGDPforHungaryistwo-thirdslessthanAustriaorGermany,morethanathirdlessthantheCzechRepublic,andonlyaheadofPoland.

Peoplesocializedintoanonmarketeconomyhavelotsofexperienceinmanaginghouseholdaffairswithalowcashincome.Thecharacteristicfeatureofacommandeconomywasthatitexistedinparallelwithunofficialeconomies.Unofficialuncivileconomiesinvolvedearningmoneythroughtransactionsthatwerenotdeclaredtotaxauthoritiesandwent

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Figure11.3PurchasingpowerofCentralEuropeans

Source:1998WorldBankAtlas,WashingtonDC:WorldBank,1998,pp.42-3

unrecordedinofficialstatistics,forexample:drivingataxiordoinghouseholdrepairsonacash-in-handbasis.Inaddition,householdscouldproducegoodsandservicesfortheirownconsumption,forexample,growingvegetablesonado-it-yourselfbasiswithoutanymoneychanginghands.TheHungarianeconomywasoutstandinginacceptingunofficialeconomicactivityoutsidethestate'sofficialcognizance.Moreover,thedeficienciesofthecommandeconomyalsoencouragedpeopletorely,insofarastheycould,onhouseholdresourcesforsomefoodstuffsandforminor(andsometimesmajor)householdrepairsandconstruction.

Whereasinaconventionalmarketeconomy,anindividual'swagesoughttopayenoughforapersontomakeendsmeet,inanon-marketeconomythiswasnotexpected.Inordertogetby,thatis,meetregularmaterialneedswithoutborrowingmoneyorspendingsavings,

peoplehadtorelyonamultiplicityofeconomies,officialandunofficial.Thecommonestpracticewastocombinenon-monetizedhouseholdproductionwiththeincomesofhouseholdmembersintheofficialeconomy.Secondinimportancewastocombineawageintheofficialeconomyand

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moneyearnedintheunofficialshadoweconomy.Bothstrategieshavebeenmaintainedtodealwiththedisturbancesofeconomictransformation(cf.Rose,1993).

ThenationwiderepresentativesamplesurveysoftheNewDemocraciesBarometerofthePaulLazarsfeldSocietymonitorinvolvementinunofficialaswellasofficialeconomies.Thefirstquestionaskediswhetherpeopleearnenoughfromtheirregularjobtobuywhattheyreallyneed;thisisthenorminamarketeconomybutwasnotalwaysthecaseinacommandeconomyorinpost-Communistcountriestoday.Peoplearethenaskedwhethertheyearnenoughtogetby,thatis,inthepastyearhavetheymanagedtocopewithoutborrowingmoneyorspendingsavings.Thiscanbedonebycombiningnon-moneydo-it-yourselfresources,unofficialearningsandincomefromaregularjobinagreatvarietyofways.Insofarasthiscanbedone,livingstandardscanbemaintainedindefinitely.

InWestGermany,91percentreportthattheyearnenoughfromtheirregularjobtobuywhattheyreallyneedandinEastGermany,re-unificationhasmadeitpossiblefor86percenttoliveontheirregularearnings.Peoplewhocannotdoso,forexample,studentsorthetemporarilyunemployed,maydrawonsavingsoronfamilyforhelp,borrowmoney

Figure11.4ImportanceofmultipleeconomiesingettingbySource:Hungary,Czech

Republic,Slovakia,Poland:PaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna,NewDemocracies

BarometerVsurvey,1998;NewDemocraciesBarometerI,1991.

Germany:CSPP/WZBOkopolsurvey,1993:questionreferencetopension

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fromfriendsorturntounemploymentbenefitorotherpublicfundstotidethemoverdifficulties.InAustria,72percentsaythattheyearnenoughfromtheirregularjobtomeettheirneeds;thosedrawingonsecondaryresourcestoaugmenttheirneedsareonly14percentofthesociety(Figure11.4).IntheformercommandeconomiesofCentralEurope,asomewhatdifferentpatternisfound.WhenthequestionwasfirstaskedinHungaryin1991,only25percentofthoseinworksaidtheyearnedenoughfromtheirregularjobtobuynecessities.Theproportionwhosaidtheycouldgetbywas68percent;the43percentagepointgapbetweenthetwofiguresemphasizestheimportanceofunofficialeconomiesinenablingHungarianstogetby.Sincethen,therehasbeenagradualincreaseintheproportionofHungariansearningenoughfromtheirregularjobtobuywhattheyneed;bythe1998NDBsurvey49percentofthoseinemploymentweredoingso,almostdoubletheproportionin1991.Concurrently,therehasbeenalesserincreaseintheproportionabletogetbythroughacombinationofunofficialandofficialactivities.TheproportionofHungariansabletogetbywithoutborrowingorspendingsavingsisapproachingthatofAustrians,albeitHungarianscopeatalowerstandardofliving(fordetails,seeRoseandHaerpfer,1996;1998).

Thenormalizationofpost-CommunistcountriesofCentralEuropeisindicatedbythegradualclosingofthegapbetweenwagespaidintheofficialeconomyandwhatapersonneedstoliveon.Inthefourtransitioneconomiesin1991,anaverageof37percentofthoseinworkreportedtotheNewDemocraciesBarometerthattheyearnedenoughtoliveonfromtheirregularjob;by1998theproportionhadrisento53percent.Whilethisfigureiswellbelowthatofnormalmarketeconomies,itissubstantialevidenceofcatchingup.Moreover,theproportionofhouseholdsinthefourcountriesabletogetbywithoutborrowingmoneyorspendingsavingshasrisenfroman

averageof31percentin1991to77percentin1998,andconsumptionhasriseninallfourcountriestoo.

ThepressureforthetotalmobilizationoflabourincommandeconomiesaftertheSecondWorldWarpreparedhouseholdstocopewiththeshocksoftransition.Incommandeconomiesthetotalresourcesofahousehold,notjustthewagesofindividuals,wereofcriticalimportance.Multipleincomesfromtheofficialeconomywereeasytoobtain,forCommunistregimesemphasizedtheMarxistprimacyoflabour,andsoughttomobilizebothmenandwomenintofulltimeemployment.Moreover,housingshortagessustainedmulti-generationhouseholds.Awidowedgrandmothernotonlyhadasmallpensionbutalsocouldlookaftergrandchildrenwhileherdaughterworked.Ateen-agedstudentcould

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earnmoneyinanunofficialeconomybysellinggoodsinaweeklymarket.

WhilefewwomenormenwereunemployedinHungaryin1949,only34percentofwomenofworkingagewereinthelabourforcecomparedto90percentofmen(Table1.5above).IntheCommunistera,theproportionofwomenmobilizedintopaidemploymentmorethandoubled,reachingapeakof74percentby1984.Changesreflectedagreaterdemandforworkersinindustryandtheservicesector,andadecliningdemandforworkinagriculture,historicallyamajoruserofnonwagedfemalelabour.Italsoreflectedtheincreasededucationallevel,andthusemployabilityofwomen,andtheurbanizationthatwascreatingeasieraccesstothelabourmarket.Asyoungermalestendedtostaylongeratschoolandmenoftenretiredwellbelowtheageof65,theratioofwomentomeninthelabourforcerosetoo.

TherapidmobilizationofwomenintopaidlabourwascommonthroughouttheCommunistbloc.WhilethereasonsfordoingsoappliedinlargemeasureinAustriaandtheFederalRepublicofGermanytoo,thetempoofchangewasmuchslower.WhereasinCommunistcountriesitwasnormaltohavethreeorfourwomeninworkforeveryfivemen,inAustriaandGermanythegenderratiointhelabourforcedidnotreachtwowomentothreemenuntilthelate1980s.Eventhen,therewasusuallyagapbetweenmarketandnonmarketcountries.Forexample,inEastGermanytherewereeighty-ninewomeninworkforeveryhundredmenin1980,whereasintheFederalRepublictheratiowassixtytoahundred(Rose,1994:Tables10,11).InHungary,themobilizationofwomenintopaidemploymentwasnotsointenseasintheGermanDemocraticRepublic,butthelevelandtempoofchangewasconsistentlyaheadofneighbouringAustria.

Thetransformationofcommandeconomieshasincreasedunemploymentamongbothmenandwomen.InHungary,theproportionofwomeninemploymenthasdroppedsixpercentagepointsbetween1989and1996.Sincetheproportionofmeninthelabourforcehasdroppedsevenpercentagepoints,theratioofwomentomeninthelabourforcehashardlybeenaffectedandasimilarpatternhasemergedinneighbouringex-commandeconomies.ButinthemarketeconomiesofCentralEurope,AustriaandGermany,therehasbeenanincreaseintheproportionofwomeninemploymentwhilethepercentageofmalesinworkhastendedtoremainconstant,thuscontinuingthelong-termsecularincreaseinequalemploymentofmenandwomen,apatterninitiatedinHungary,CzechoslovakiaandPoland.

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Figure11.5TrendsinGDP,198996Sources:Austria:OECDEconomicOutlookNo.62

(December1997),A4.Formercommandeconomies:TransitionReport1997(London:

EuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment),appendixwithcountrystatistics.

*From198990,regionalaccountsofCzechoslovakia

TransformingacommandeconomyintoamarketeconomyisintendedtodrawthecountriesofCentralEuropeclosertogetherthroughtrade,membershipintheEuropeanUnionand,ifformercommandeconomiescatchup,inlivingstandardstoo.Buttheimmediateresultemphasizeddifferences,asthefirstconsequenceofrestructuringcommandeconomieswastosqueezeoutinefficientandvaluesubtractingenterprises.Inthefirstpartofthe1990s,acrosstheregiontheofficiallyrecordedGrossDomesticProductcontracted,theintroductionofmarketpriceswasaccompaniedbydouble-andtreble-digitinflationandoveremployment(thatis,concealedunemploymentduetomisuseoflabour)becameopenunemployment.

Growthisthenormformarketeconomies,albeittherateofgrowthislikelytovaryfrom1to3or4percentayear.Thecontractionofthe

economyistheexception.Forexample,inAustria,themostappropriatecomparatorinCentralEuropebecauseoftheshocktotheFederalRepublicofGermanycausedbyreunification,theeconomygreweveryyearbetween1989and1997.Aftercontrollingfortheeffectsofinflation,thecountry'sGrossDomesticProductwas16percentgreaterin1997thanintheyeartheBerlinWallfell(Figure11.5)

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Thedynamicsofeconomiesintransformationhavebeenverydifferent.Paradoxically,thefirstsignofprogressisacontractionintheofficialeconomy,astheintroductionofmarketsrevealstheinadequaciesofmuchthatwentbeforeandmuchneweconomicactivityoccursoutsidetheofficialeconomy.Theex-commandeconomiesofCentralEuropehaveonlydifferedinthedepthanddurationofeconomiccontraction.Between1989and1991everyeconomycontractedmorethan12percent.By1993theofficialHungarianeconomyhadlevelledoff,andrecoverystarted.Asoftheendof1997,thePolishrecoveryhadcreatedanofficialGDPgreaterthanin1989;andsignsofrecoveryfromthedepthsoftransformationwereevidentinHungaryaswellasintheCzechRepublicandSlovakia.

Whatevercredenceisgiventoofficialeconomicstatisticsintransitioncountries,threeconclusionsareclear.TheimpositionofacommandeconomyimposedgreatcostsonthepeoplesofCentralEurope,becausefordecadesitcausedlivingstandards,whethermeasuredinhealthorwealth,tolagbehindtheboomingsocialmarketeconomiesofAustriaandtheFederalRepublic.Atthestartofthe1990s,theintroductionofamarketeconomyimposedcostsonnonmarketeconomies.Buttheturnaroundinthemid-1990sgiveshopesofaboomatthestartofthenewmillennium,asthelaggardeconomiesofEastCentralEuropeseektocatchupwithsocialmarketeconomies.

Howpeopleevaluatethenationaleconomydependsonwhethertheylookbackwardorforwardintime.Peoplemaymakeeconomicjudgmentsbasedsolelyonthepresent;theymayretrospectivelycomparecurrentconditionswiththosebeforetransformation;ortheymayputthefuturefirst.Sincewordssuchascapitalismandsocialismarevague,emotionallyloadedsymbolsthatdonotdescribeactualeconomies,theNewDemocraciesBarometeraskspeopletoevaluatethenationaleconomywithoutreferencetoideologicallabels.People

aresimplyaskedtoratetheeconomybeforetherevolutionof1989;ourpresenteconomicsystem;andoureconomicsysteminfiveyearstime.CentralEuropeansshowtwoverydifferentpatternsofresponse(Figure11.6).Hungariansareoutstandingintheextenttowhichtheyarepositiveabouttheoldeconomicsystem,foreventhoughitwasnotsoprosperousofficiallyitnonethelessallowedsubstantialscopeforunofficialearnings,andlaxcurrencycontrolsenabledmanytoacquireforeigncurrenciestospendonshoppingexpeditionsinVienna.Slovaksaresecondintheirpositiveorientationtowardthepast,whileCzechsandPolestendtobenegativeabouttheoldcommandeconomy.

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Figure11.6Ratingeconomicsystems:past,presentandfuture

Source:Hungary,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Poland:PaulLazarsfeldSocietyVienna,NewDemocraciesBarometerVsurvey,1998

DissatisfactionwiththeeconomicsystematpresentisnotconfinedtoHungarians:amajorityofCzechsandSlovaksarealsodissatisfied.ThedistinctivefeatureofHungariansisthattheyratetheneweconomicsystem,asof1998,muchlessfavorablythantheoldsystem,whereasamajorityofCzechsarenegativeaboutboththeoldandnew.AmongtheCentralEuropeanex-commandeconomies,onlythePolisheconomyhassucceededinachievingsufficientgrowthtogaintheendorsementofamajorityofitscitizens.AsubstantialgapremainswithAustria,where87percentarepositiveaboutthewayitseconomyworks.

Theconventionaltextbookmaximthatcostscomebeforebenefitsimpliesthatpeopleoughtnottoviewthecostsoftransformationasalossbutasaninvestmentthatwillyieldfuturebenefits.ThisisthecasethroughoutCentralEurope.TheproportionofHungarianspositiveaboutthefutureeconomyisjustashighasthatofPoles,even

thoughtheupswinginHungaryhasyettoreachtheheightsofPoland.NopopulationisaspositiveabouttheeconomicfutureasareAustrians,butthereisoptimismthroughouttheDanuberegion.Paradoxically,amajorityofHungariansarepositiveaboutboththeoldeconomicsystemandthe

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economicsystemastheyseeitevolvinginfuture.InsofarastheyuseAustriaorGermanyasamodeloftheHungarianfuture,thenewsystemalsopromisesamuchhigherstandardoflivingthantheold.

ChangingPoliticalEvaluations

Since1945Hungaryhashadthreefundamentalpoliticaltransformations.ThefirstcameinNovember1945whenafreecompetitiveelectionwasheld.TheSmallholdersPartywonanabsolutemajorityofvotes,57percent.Thesecondbreakcameshortlythereafter:theCommunistPartyusedtheSovietpresencetobecomeapartnerinacoalitiongovernmentandintimidateopponents.By1948theCommunistseliminatedtheiropponentsfromgovernmentandintroducedaone-partystate.IntheMay1949election,theCommunist-ledbloc,theonlypartynominatingcandidates,won95.6percentofthevote.Afundamentalshifttoone-partyrulebegan;itlastedfortyyears(DessewffyandHammer,1995:14ff).

HungarywasinthevanguardofabandoningCommunism.AmongCommunistregimes,Hungaryrankedhighonliberalization,thatis,limitedrepressionratherthantotalitariansuppression.OntheFreedomHousescale,inthe1980sHungaryrankedasjustasliberalizedasYugoslaviaalbeitthiswasstillintheunfreecategory.Bycontrast,EastGermanyand,formuchofthetimeCzechoslovakia,wereatthebottomoftheunfreecategory,alongwiththeSovietUnionandRomania(cf.Gastil,1987:Table6).Thelowlevelofunfreedomgavedissidentsachancetocriticizethegovernmentfromananti-Communistvieworfromapost-Marxistperspective(cf.Fehér,etal.,1983).Italsoopeneddebatewiththegoverningparty.Hence,inOctober1989themajorityinthepartyvotedtodissolveitanddenouncedcrimesandmistakesofthepast.

Whilefundamentalconstitutionalchangeoccurred,publicopinionisproblematic.Theoriesofpoliticalsocializationpostulatethatthepoliticalvaluesthatpeopleformearlyintheirlivestendtoendurethroughoutadulthood.ButgiventhenatureofHungariansocialism,theordinaryHungarianwasunlikelytoacquirethevaluesofanorthodoxMarxistLeninistkind.YetsincethesystemwasliberalbycomparisonwithotherCommunistregimes,thismayhavesofteneditsrejection.TheconsciouslyambiguousroleofCommunistleadersalsotaughtmanyHungarianstobecomepoliticalcynics,scepticalofallpoliticianswhatevertheirprofessedideologyorinterests.

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Figure11.7Ratingpoliticalsystems:past,presentandfuture

Source:Hungary,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Poland:PaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna,NewDemocraciesBarometerVsurvey,1998

Inconsequenceofadistinctivepoliticalhistory,Hungarianshavereacteddifferentlythanneighbourstothechangeinregimein1989.WhentheNewDemocraciesBarometeraskspeopletoratetheformerCommunistregime;ourpresentsystemofgoverningwithfreeelectionsandmanyparties;andoursystemofgoverninginfiveyearstime,HungariansconsistentlygiveahighratingtotheoldCommunistregime(Figure11.7).Inthe1998NDBsurvey,58percentwerepositive,comparedtolessthanathirdofCzechsandPoles.Hungariansalsodifferinbeinglessfavourableaboutthenewregime.WhereasCzechsandPolesaremuchmorelikelytohaveapositiveviewofthenewcomparedtotheoldregime,thereisafivepercentagepointfallintheproportionofHungariansfavouringthenewregimecomparedtotheold.Nonetheless,amajorityremainspositive.OnlythePolesshowaspositivearatingasthatofAustrians.

ThereadinessofHungarianstovotethegovernmentofthedayoutof

officeisevidencethattheyunderstandwhatdemocracyisabout:itisaboutthemassofthepopulationhavingachoiceaboutwhogoverns,ratherthantrustingtheparty(orMoscow)toknowbest.Thisattitudeis

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sharedwidelyamongcitizensinpost-CommunistcountriesofCentralEurope.Three-quartersofHungariansarethereforepositiveabouttheregimeastheyexpectittobeinfiveyears,andthesameistrueofalmostasmanyCzechs,SlovaksandPoles.Ironically,thepeoplesofthenewdemocraciesaremorepositiveaboutthefuturethanAustrians,sinceAustriansevaluategovernmentbyadifferentstandard.

Positiveattitudestowardtheoldregimearenotevidenceofadesiretoreturntopoliticsasitwasbefore1989.WhentheNewDemocraciesBarometeraskspeoplewhethertheythinkthecountrywouldbebetteroffifCommunistrulewererestored,lessthanaquarterofHungarianssaytheywouldlikethistohappen.Hungariansdivideintothreegroups.Thelargestbloc,39percent,areunreservedlynegativeaboutCommunistrule,dislikingtheoldregimeandrejectingtheideaofreturningtothepast.ThemedianHungarians,morethanathirdofthetotal,arenostalgicbutrealistic,havingapositiveviewoftheoldpoliticalsystembutrejectingtheideaofreturningtoit.Onlyoneinfiveisreactionary,approvingtheoldregimeandalsowantingitback.ThepatternissimilarinotherCentralEuropeancountries.OnlytheSlovaksappearmorepositiveaboutareturntothepast,butthatisbecausethepresenceofaCommunistregimeisconfoundedwiththeexistenceofCzechoslovakia(Table11.3).

TheHungarianSocialistPartyhasmadeexplicitthat,eventhoughitwasfoundedbypoliticiansintheoldregime,ittoodoesnotwanttoreturntothepast.HungarianCommunistswerenotbelieversinMarxismbutbelieversinpowerandtheadvantagesofapartycardinordertogetahead.TheHungarianSocialistParty'scredentialsasasocial-democraticratherthananti-democraticpartyhavebeenconfirmedbyitsadmissiontotheInternationalofthesocialdemocrats.Theleadership'scredentialsasopportunistsratherthanideologueshavebeenconfirmedbythesuccessfulnegotiationof

Hungary'sentrytoOECDandtoNATO,both

Table11.3:Widespreadrejectionofundemocraticalternatives(%)Army Communistregime Strongleader-noParliament

(%strongly,somewhatinfavour)HUNGARY 1 23 18CzechRepublic 3 16 13Slovakia 6 29 23Poland 6 15 27Source:PaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna,NewDemocraciesBarometerVsurvey,1998

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foundedinoppositiontotheCommunisttakeoverofhalfofEurope.Inthedescriptionofapartyledbyex-Communists,thecriticaltermisex;surveyevidenceshowsthatthebasicpoliticalattitudesofHungarianex-CommunistsarevirtuallythesameasthoseofHungariannon-Communists,andthisistrueinotherCentralEuropeancountriestoo(Rose,1996).

IncommonwithotherCentralEuropeans,Hungariansdonotwanttoberuledbyanundemocraticregime,whetherCommunist,militaryorapopulistdictator,eachofwhichwasafamiliaralternativeinthepast.Eventhoughhalfhavenotbeenpositiveaboutthecurrentregime,whenNDBsurveysaskedwhethertheywouldprefergovernmentbyastrongleaderwithoutaParliamentorelections,82percentofHungariansrejecteddictatorship,morethaninPoland,orSlovakia,and99percentrejectmilitaryrule.Altogether,two-thirdsofHungariansrejectallthreeundemocraticalternativesofferedintheNDBsurvey(cf.Roseetal.,1998).

ThevotesoftheHungarianelectorateconfirmtherejectionofundemocraticalternatives.Theunpopularityoftheconservativegovernmentinthe1990ParliamentencouragedIstvanCsurkatoformtheJusticeandLifeParty,withslogansechoingneo-Fascistpartiesofthe1930sbutinthe1994Hungarianelection,thepartysecuredlessthan2percentofthepopularvote,anditbarelyclaimedafewseatsinParliamentinthe1998election.IntheCzechRepublicandPolandright-wingpartieshavewonmorevotesandinAustriatheso-calledFreedomPartyofJörgHaiderwinsmorethanafifthofthevote.InSlovakia,thebehaviourofPrimeMinisterVladimirMeciarinofficeraiseddoubtsabouthisdemocraticcommitment,andledtoSlovakianotbeinggroupedwithHungaryanditsneighboursinnegotiationsformembershipintheEuropeanUnionandNATO.

EventhoughthegoulashSocialismofHungarydidnotdeliverasrich

adietastheplannershadhoped,theconcurrentpoliticalliberalizationgaveHungariansafreerlifebefore1989thanwasfoundelsewhereinCentralEurope.Bycontrast,CzechsandSlovakswerekeptbehindbordersbyheavilyarmedguardsandEastBerlinersseparatedfromWestBerlinbyahighwall,andsecuritypolicepreparedtoshootanyonewhomadeadashforfreedom.PolesweresubjecttomartiallawimposedbythedictatesofMoscow.

Tomeasuregainsinfreedomfromthestate(cf.Berlin,1969),theNewDemocraciesBarometeraskspeopletosaywhethertheythink,bycomparisonwiththeCommunistsystem,theyfeelfreer,muchthesame

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Table11.4:Increasesinfreedominpost-Communistsocieties(%)Hungary CzechR Slovakia Poland Mean

(%feelingfreernowthaninoldregime)Joinanyorganization 85 89 86 89 87Travelanywhere 88 92 92 92 91Decideonreligion 80 88 93 77 84Saywhatthink 82 81 74 83 80Source:PaulLazarsfeldSociety,Vienna,NewDemocraciesBarometerV,1998

orlessfreeasregardssucheverydayactivitiesassayingwhatyouthinkormakingupyourownmindaboutreligiousbeliefs.IneveryCentralEuropeancountryanaverageofmorethanfour-fifthsofthepopulationfeelsfreertodaythanbefore1990,andthedifferencesbetweennationalpopulationsislimited.Anaverageof87percentofCzechs,86percentofSlovaks,85percentofPolesand84percentofHungarianssaytheyfeelfreernowthanintheoldregime(Table11.4).ThedifferenceisgreatestbetweenHungaryandtheCzechRepublic,moreprosperousthanHungaryandwithmorecommonborderswithfreesocieties(thatis,WestGermanyandAustria)butmorerepressedaftertheSoviet-ledinvasionof1968.BecauseHungarianswerelessrepressed,theminoritysayingthattheynoticenochangeintheirfreedombetweenthe1980sand1990sislarger.Allinall,Hungariansofallclassesandlevelsofeducationvaluefreedom.

InHungary,asinestablishedEuropeandemocracies,expressionofdissatisfactionwithhowacountryisgovernedisnotademandfortheintroductionofanundemocraticregime.Itisasymptomofdemocraticdissatisfaction,astateofmindthatcanexistinestablisheddemocraciesaswellasinpost-Communistcountries(cf.Tóka,1995;Norris,1999).DissatisfactionsthatHungariansshowtodayarenotsomuchahankeringforareturntotheredtotalitarianismoftheearly1950sortheblackauthoritarianismofthe1930s,butanexampleof

Schumpeter's(1952)modelofdemocracyascompetitionbetweencompetingteamsofpoliticalleaders,onegroupseekingendorsementforitsachievementsinofficeandanotherseekingtocreatedissatisfactiontojustifyitsdemandtobevotedintooffice.Democracyisnotamechanismforproducingafinalsolutiontopoliticalproblems,aphrasewithuniquelydistastefulsignificanceinCentralEurope.Itisaninstitutionforgivingventtopopulardissatisfaction,thusgivinganincentivetogovernorstodobetterorrisklossofoffice.

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InthefinaldecadeoftheCommunistregimetheproblemsofHungarywerestructuralproblems;Hungarianscouldonlyregistertheirdissatisfactionbymovingoffthebooksintotheunofficialeconomyorbycoffeehousedissent.Today,therearestillsocial,economicandpoliticalproblems.Butthereisafundamentalchange:Hungarianscannowexpresstheirdissatisfactionthroughtheclassicdemocraticmethodofvotingoutofofficeagovernmentthattheydislikeandvotingintoofficethosewhomtheybelieveorhopewilldobetter.

References

Berlin,Isaiah,1969.OnLiberty.InFourEssaysonLiberty.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.

Dessewffy,TiborandHammer,Ferenc,1995.TheTransitioninHungary.InGáborTóka,ed.,The1990ElectiontotheHungarianNationalAssembly.Berlin:Sigma,1131.

Fehér,Ferenc,Heller,ÁgnesandMárkus,György,1983.DictatorshipoverNeeds.Oxford:BasicBlackwell.

Gastil,RaymondD.,1987.FreedomintheWorld:PoliticalRightsandCivilLiberties.NewYork:GreenwoodPress.

InternationalChildDevelopmentCentre(ICDC),1997.ChildrenatRiskinCentralandEasternEurope.Florence:ICDC/UNICEFRegionalMonitoringReportNo.4.

Lavigne,Marie,1995.TheEconomicsofTransition:FromSocialistEconomytoMarketEconomy.London:Macmillan.

Marer,Paul,Árvay,János,O'Connor,John,Schrenk,MartinandSwanson,Daniel,1992.HistoricallyPlannedEconomies:aGuidetotheData.WashingtonDC:WorldBank.

Norris,Pippa,ed.,1999.CriticalCitizens:GlobalSupportfor

DemocraticGovernance.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.

Rose,Richard,1993.ContradictionsbetweenMicroandMacro-EconomicGoalsinPost-CommunistSocieties,EuropeAsiaStudies,45,3,419-44.

Rose,Richard,1994.ComparingWelfareAcrossTimeandSpace.Vienna:EuropeanCentreforSocialWelfarePolicyandResearch,EurosocialReport49.

Rose,Richard,1996.Ex-CommunistsinPost-CommunistSocieties,PoliticalQuarterly,67,1,1425.

Rose,RichardandHaerpfer,Christian,1996.ChangeandStabilityintheNewDemocraciesBarometer:ATrendAnalysis.Glasgow:UniversityofStrathclydeStudiesinPublicPolicyNo.270.

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State:EastGermansinComparativePerspective.GermanPolitics,6,1,100-21.

Rose,RichardandHaerpfer,Christian,1998.NewDemocraciesBarometerV.Glasgow:UniversityofStrathclydeStudiesinPublicPolicyNo.308.

Rose,Richard,Mishler,WilliamandHaerpfer,Christian,1998.DemocracyandItsAlternatives:UnderstandingPost-CommunistSocieties.Cambridge:PolityPressandBaltimore:JohnsHopkinsUniversityPress.

Schumpeter,JosephA.,1952.Capitalism,SocialismandDemocracy.London:GeorgeAllen&Unwin,4thed.

Tóka,Gábor,1995.PoliticalSupportinEast-CentralEurope.InHans-DieterKlingemannandDieterFuchs,eds.,CitizensandtheState.Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,354-82.

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Index

A

Age,32f,53ff,64,7987f,119,130,134,138f,148ff,161f,173ff

Agriculture,25f,78ff,102

Alcoholism,45f

Alienation,147ff

Anomie,93,147ff

Antall,József,12f

ArrowCross,7

Atheist,63ff

Austria,59,179203

Axis,8

B

Bánát,3f

Benefitsinkind,81f

Birthrate,50ff,68

Bourgeoisie,100ff,108

Bulgaria,83,86ff

C

Calvinism,6172

Carownership187ff

Catholics,6172

CentralEurope,179203

Class,25f,97112,114-26,164ff,174ff

Consumption,36ff,98

Comparison,cross-national,120,51ff,82ff,179203

Crime,96

Croatia,3f

Csurka,István,13,

CzechRepublic,includedinCzechoslovakia

Czechoslovakia,157-67,188203

D

Democracy,22ff

Deviance,44ff

Diseases,54

Divorce,28f

E

Economicconditions,9ff,34ff,7384,187-97,

Economy,privatesector,7384,87ff

Economy,publicsector,23,7384,89ff

Economy,unofficial,7384,102,116

Education,29ff,65ff,86ff,99,117ff,131,150ff,161,174ff,186ff

Elections,11ff,155-78,181

Elites,27,8596

Emigrants,27

Employment,32ff,74ff,97ff,192

Entrepreneurs,103ff

Ethnicity,3f

F

Family,27ff,66,87,121,131,134ff,138

Fertilityrates,51ff

Food,36f

Freedom,9,200f

Fromm,Erich,98

G

Gender,3,31f,39f,43,54ff,78,87ff,121,148ff,184ff,192f

Germany,159,179203

Gömbös,Gyula,7

Goulashsocialism,10,102,200

Gypsies,79,130

H

Habsburgmonarchy,3ff

Hankiss,Elemér,9,152

Health,39ff,148

Horthy,AdmiralMiklós,6

Housing,37ff,148

I

Income,34ff,73,77ff,92ff,99,103ff,117ff,129ff,138ff,148,152,161,191f

Inequality,35f,99,105ff,113-27,133ff

Infantmortality,39f,53,182ff

Inglehart,Ronald,149

IronCurtain,180,

J

Jews,62ff