Upload
chidi
View
22
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
A Severe Global Manufacturing Recession. Presented by Dan Meckstroth Chief Economist [email protected]. The Root of the Crisis--Misguided Policy, Greed, Poor Decisions. Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 Exempted $500,000 in home equity from personal taxation 1997 Asian Currency Crisis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
A Severe Global Manufacturing Recession
Presented byDan MeckstrothChief [email protected]
The Root of the Crisis--Misguided Policy, Greed, Poor Decisions
• Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997o Exempted $500,000 in home equity from personal taxation
• 1997 Asian Currency Crisiso Developing countries’ central banks manipulated exchange rates to build
currency reserveso Global savings glut lowered mortgage rates (homebuyers) and fixed
investment yields (domestic and foreign investors)• Public Policy (for both Parties) to Increase Homeownership Rates,
Especially by Minoritieso Pressure on Fannie and Freddie to lower lending standardso Fannie and Freddie remained severely undercapitalized but able to borrow
at below market rates• Bush Administration’s Financial Market Deregulation Philosophy• Federal Reserve Policy to Clean Up After Bubbles, Not Prevent Them• Financial Industry Creates and Brokers Complex and Opaque Derivatives• Home Equity Loans Finance a Consumer Spending Spree
Vicious Circle of Financial Deleveraging
Source: McKinsey & Company
Rising losses insubprime markets
Credit Conditions: Banks Tightening Business and Consumer Lending Standards
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
Source: Federal Reserve Board
The Financial Crisis Has Spread Worldwide
World Stock Prices
Source: Yahoo Finance
Ind
ex, J
anu
ary
2007
=10
0
Vicious Circle From Financial Sector to Real Economy
Source: MAPI
Rising losses insubprime markets
A Severe Decline in Household Wealth
Housing Prices and Common Stock Prices
Source: OFHEO, S&P 500, MAPIF=Forecast
Home Equity No Longer Supports Spending
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Calculatedrisk.com
Overextended Consumer: Confidence Plummets
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: University of Michigan
Consumers Drastically Cut Big-Ticket Spending
Motor Vehicles and Housing Starts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, MAPIF=Forecast
Widespread Job Loss in the Economy
Dec. 07 to Jan. 09 Dec. 07 to Jan. 09
Industry1000Jobs
% chg.1
% of total2 Industry
1000Jobs
% chg.1
% of total2
Total nonfarm -3572 -2.6 100.0Wholesale trade -222 -3.7 4.3
Government 170 0.8 16.7Other services -44 -0.8 4.1Professional and business services -848 -4.7 12.8
Transportation and warehousing -202 -4.4 3.2
Health care and social assistance 447 2.9 11.9Educational services 125 4.2 2.3Retail trade -570 -3.7 11.1Information -105 -3.5 2.2
Leisure and hospitality -266 -2.0 9.9Real estate and rental and leasing -87 -4.0 1.5
Manufacturing -1064 -7.7 9.4Mining 51 7.4 0.5Construction -781 -10.4 5.0Utilities 9 1.6 0.4
Finance and insurance -182 -3.0 4.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, MAPI
Job Loss in the Recession
1Change in jobs as a percent of the Dec. 2007 level2Industry employment as a percent of all jobs in Jan. 2009
Widespread Job Loss in Manufacturing
Dec. 07 to Jan. 09 Dec. 07 to Jan. 09
Industry1000Jobs
% chg.1
% of total2 Industry
1000Jobs
% chg.1
% of total2
Manufacturing -1064 -7.7 100.0 Paper -26 -5.6 3.4 Food manufacturing -20 -1.4 11.6 Primary metals -39 -8.7 3.2
Fabricated metal -137 -8.8 11.2 Semiconductors and electronic components -30 -6.7 3.2
Machinery -58 -4.9 8.9 Electrical equipment and appliances -20 -4.5 3.2
Chemicals -23 -2.7 6.6 Wood products -93 -18.7 3.2 Motor vehicles and parts -204 -21.3 5.9 Beverage and tobacco -4 -1.9 1.5 Plastics and rubber -72 -9.6 5.3 Computer & peripherals -2 -1.1 1.4 Printing and support -57 -9.2 4.4 Apparel -30 -14.5 1.4 Nonmetallic mineral -53 -10.9 3.4 Textile product mills -15 -9.8 1.1 Electronic instruments -7 -1.5 3.4 Textile mills -29 -17.7 1.1 Furniture and related -86 -16.7 3.4 Communications equip. 0 0.3 1.0
Petroleum and coal -1 -1.0 0.9
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, MAPI
Job Loss in the Recession
1Change in jobs as a percent of the Dec. 2007 level2Industry employment as a percent Mfg. in Dec. 2007
Consumer Industries Led Manufacturing into Recession
Percent Change Percent Change
Industry 2008 2009 2010 Industry 2008 2009 2010
Motor Vehicles & Parts -14 -24 5 HVAC Equipment -12 -15 5
Petroleum & Coal 0 -2 2 Textile Products -7 -9 -2
Plastic Products -4 -10 5 Paints, Soaps -1 -8 1
Logging -1 -20 2 Food 2 -1 1
Wood Products -13 -20 10 Apparel -5 -6 -5
Furniture -11 -15 3 Pharmaceuticals 1 -2 2
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Global Insight Model, MAPI
Consumer-Related Manufacturing Production
Excess Capacity in the Economy Depresses Capital Investment
Labor Unemployment Rate and Excess Factory Capacity
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics , Federal Reserve Board, MAPIF=Forecast
Falling Capacity Utilization and Tight Credit Conditions Drive Down Business Investment Spending
Business Investment, Inflation-Adjusted
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis , MAPIF=Forecast
Capital Equipment Industries Were Pulled Into Recession
Percent Change Percent Change
Industry 2008 2009 2010 Industry 2008 2009 2010
Electrical Equipment 1 -11 1 Industrial Machinery -14 -14 4Architectural & Structural Metals -2 -19 -1
Commercial, Service & Other Machinery 0 -14 2
Construction Machinery -7 -21 5 Forging and Stamping 2 -10 3
Engines & Turbines -9 -11 5 Aerospace -1 7 4
Ag. Equipment -4 -3 3 Ship & Boat Building -11 -17 -1Mining and Drilling Equipment 13 -13 -24
Private Nonresidential Construction 12 -12 -17
Metalworking Machinery -2 -13 4 Public Construction 2 -1 5
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Global Insight Model, MAPI
Investment-Related Manufacturing Production
Intermediate Industries Are In Recession
Percent Change Percent Change
Industry 2008 2009 2010 Industry 2008 2009 2010
Paper -3 -8 0 Resins & Synthetic -10 -15 5
Iron & Steel -9 -33 5 Organic Chemicals -15 -15 7
Alumina & Aluminum 0 -12 5 Inorganic Chemicals 3 -9 0
Glass 3 -15 4 Ag. Chemicals -4 -7 4
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Global Insight Model, MAPI
Material Manufacturing Production
Declining U.S. Steel Production
U.S. Steel Production
Source: Left – Federal Reserve Board, Right – Federal Reserve BoardF=Forecast
U.S. Steel Production
A Massive Federal Stimulus is On the Way
$787 Billion Stimulus Package by Major Category (Percent of Total)
Sources: Joint Committee on Taxation, House Committee on Rules, Congressional Budget Office
Infrastructure and Energy Projects, Education and State Governments Receive the Most Funding
Major Categories of Discretionary Spending in Stimulus Package
(Billions of Dollars)
Sources: Joint Committee on Taxation, House Committee on Rules, Congressional Budget Office
US Dollar Appreciation and Global Recession Hurts Exports Which Have Been a Pillar of Strength in Manufacturing
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
Source: Left – Federal Reserve Board, Right – Federal Reserve BoardF=Forecast
World Trade Weight GDP Growth
A Severe Manufacturing Recession
Non-High TechManufacturing Production
Source: Left – Federal Reserve Board, Right – Federal Reserve Board
Non-High TechManufacturing Production
The 2008-2009 Recession is As Severe As 1973-75
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board and Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI
Length and Depth of Selected Post-World War II Recessions
Recession years Length in monthsPeak-to-Trough Percent Change
GDPPrivate-sector employment
Manufacturing production
2008-09 (forecast) 18 -3.0 -3.9 -12.2
2001 9 -0.5 -2.7 -6.6
1990-91 8 -1.5 -1.9 -4.7
1981-82 16 -2.9 -3.5 -9.5
1973-75 16 -3.4 -4.2 -15.6
1957-58 8 -3.7 -5.3 -14.5
Two Speed World: Advanced Countries In Manufacturing Recession
Manufacturing Production Growth
Source: Government Statistical Agencies, Global Insight, MAPIF=Forecast
Two Speed World: Developing Countries Grow At A Decelerating Rate
Manufacturing Production Growth
Source: Government Statistical Agencies, Global Insight, MAPIF=Forecast
A Severe Global Recession
World GDP & Manufacturing Production
Source: Left – Federal Reserve Board, Right – Federal Reserve BoardF=Forecast
World Manufacturing Production
World Steel Production Collapsed at the End of 2008
Global Steel Production
Source: World Steel Association
Pervasive Decline in Global Steel Production
Million Metric Tons Percent Change
Country 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008IQ to IVQ
2008
U.S. 99 98 92 0 -7 -39
EU-27 207 210 199 1 -5 -28
Brazil 31 34 34 9 0 -21
Russian Federation 71 72 69 2 -5 -40
China 423 489 502 16 3 -11
Japan 116 120 119 3 -1 -14
Korea 49 52 54 6 4 -8
Taiwan 20 21 20 4 -3 -20
India 50 53 55 7 4 -2
Other 285 293 279 3 -5 -33
Source: World Steel Association
Global Steel Production