(a selection of) Important data and modeling activities

sponsored by WCRP in 2011-2012

Major findings, recommendations and actions

Data/Modeling• 24-28 October 2011, Boulder, WCRP Open Science Conference: actionable

science, http://www.wcrp-climate.org/conference2011/documents/WCRP%20Conference%20AGU_Eos_mtg.pdf– Prediction of the Earth System, bridging physical climate and bio-geochemistry– Cloud/aerosols/radiative feedback and climate sensitivities– Regional climate/seamless prediction– Quantify predicted climate uncertainty– Decadal/initialized predictability– Polar predictability– Extremes attribution– Sea-level rise– Capacity building

• Most challenges will involve both data and modeling efforts

Data• 18-20 April 2011, Frascati, WCRP-GCOS workshop on the evaluation of satellite-related global

climate datasets, http://www.wcrp-climate.org/documents/ECV_Wksp_WCRP_Report.pdf– FACT1 data sets = great value and opportunity for verification and validation of Earth/climate models– FACT 2 incompatibility of format, projection and error characteristics were identified as major

impediments to sub-optimal use of observations– AIM promote intercomparison and the evaluation of datasets of Essential Climate Variables (ECV)

following GCOS Requirements – FOCUS lessons learned and best practices for a manageable sub-set of space-based observations

rather than being all encompassing (future could focus on in situ and/or additional space-based observational records)

– ACTION establish an international framework for a consistent approach to the production, evaluation and accessibility of global climate datasets, which could lead to inventory of essential climate data sets

– ONGOING discussions with NCDC to host ECV inventory on GOSIC, draft plan developed and being reviewed

– ESA tentatively agreed to host the follow-up meeting early 2013, possibly with WDAC2

Data• WOAP Flux report,

http://www.wcrp-climate.org/documents/woap_fluxes_report_01_2012.pdf– Common issues over land, ice and sea:

• RECOM Evaluation of products (in-situ, models, reanalysis) and accuracies, WDAC ideal for cross-entity dialogue

– Distribution of reference sites• RECOM Initial consideration on land, optimization (distribution, consistency, multi-

variable

– Flux measurement and data processing• RECOM Liaise with space agencies, gap analysis

– Global datasets of fluxes: RECOM devpt of community guidelines– Evaluation of model fluxes: RECOM continuation of WGNE SURFA

Data• 7-11 May 2012, Silver Spring, 4th International Reanalysis

Conference, http://icr4.org/ppts/Bosilovich_Wrapup.pdf– FACT Reanalyses: one of most used info in climate research– CHALL: unsecure funding, some observing systems at risk will impact

quality, bias correction and ref obs, uncertainty estimations, longer periods

– NEED: international coordination

– POTENTIAL: coupled and hybrid assimilation, adjusting cov and assimilation windows

– ACTION: conference every 4-5 years, data assimilation conference in 2 years

– ACTION: make reanalyses available on ESGF

Modeling• 21-26 March 2011, Trieste, 1st International CORDEX

Conference, http://cdsagenda5.ictp.it/askArchive.php?base=agenda&categ=a10131&id=a10131s37t80/slides– RECOM: leverage CMIP5 experience, approach, architecture, formats

– RECOM: focus on 3 VIA applications (health, agriculture, water)

– CHALL: populate the GCM/RCM/RCP matrix

– RECOM: extend CORDEX mandate

– DONE: from “CORDEX Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling” to “CORDEX Science Advisory Team” established

– TO-DO: web portal consistency, develop all regions

– TO-DO: identify suitable observational data sets for each region

Modeling• 5-9 March 2012, Honolulu, CMIP5 Analysis Workshop,

http://www.wcrp-climate.org/documents/ezine/WCRPnews_14032012.pdf– CONCL: spread and patterns of new CMIP5 AOGCM and

ESM similar to CMIP3– CHALL: some problems persist (double ITCZ, Arctic clouds

and circulation, Antarctic sea ice loss, etc)– CHALL: CMIP5 has far more info to be analyzed, IPCC

deadline, continuous ESG population– ACTION: prepare grounds for CMIP6, AR6

Modeling• 20-23 March 2012, Pasadena, The Physics of

Weather and Climate Models

Others• Past

– Drought workshops– Sub-seasonal to seasonal Project (WCRP/WWRP)– …

• Upcoming– WGNE Systematic errors– WGNE Short to medium range coupled predictions– Pan-WGSIP– Pan-CORDEX– Data assimilation (TBD)– …

• CLIVAR, CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX data and modeling activities• …