A selection of charts presented at Fathom Consulting’s Global Economic & Markets Outlook Seminar on 1st November 2016

Whether you’re doing top-down macro analysis, sector research or asset allocation strategy, Thomson Reuters Eikon has the content and tools you need, all in one place, to help you outperform. Eikon helps you see the complete picture by combining one of the most comprehensive economics databases in the industry, powered by Thomson Reuters Datastream, with our world-class company information and cross asset market data.

• Track daily news and events

• Access the slides from this presentation under “Global Economic and Markets Outlook Q4 2016”

• Establish whether stock prices are over or under-valued

• Access unique economics point in time data

• Track market expectation

• Generate ideas and present them clearly

• Access a pre-built library of charts built by Fathom Consulting including the charts shown in this booklet

Why Thomson Reuters Eikon?

Accessing Fathom Charts in Thomson Reuters Eikon

Search for “DATASTREAM” and select the Chartbook or type “DSCHART” or “CBOOK”

2

• The Datastream Chart Studio in Eikon Includes full editing, customization and publishing capabilities

• Access the slides from this presentation under “Global Economic and Markets Outlook Q4 2016”

• View an extensive library of example charts and pre-built topical charts from Fathom Consulting in the Chartbook

• Access Fathom Consulting’s Macroeconomic Policy Indicator by searching for “FMPI” in the Chartbook

Selected charts

All commentary and opinion is that of Fathom Consulting and any views expressed are not those of Thomson Reuters. More charts from Fathom Consulting are available in Thomson Reuters Eikon along with many of the data sources.

Fathom Consulting Global Economic and Markets Outlook Q4 2016

3

Growth summary

• Our central scenario sees victory for the Democrats and the US run ‘business as usual’. The next most likely outcome is a watered down version of the Republican candidate’s manifesto.

• Our risk scenario is one of increasing isolationism.

• The chances of a marked downturn in global trade as a share of global GDP over the next one to two years are small. But over a longer horizon, this becomes a serious threat.

• The emerging economies have the most to gain under ‘business as usual’ and the most to lose in a world of increasing isolationism.

Overview of Fathom growth forecasts

2015 2016 2017 2018

Year over year %

Central Central Isolationism Central Isolationism

Global GDP 2.5 (3.1) 2.2 (2.8) 2.5 (3.1) 0.6 (1.3) 2.8 (3.3) 0.2 (0.9)

Advanced Economies*

2.1 1.4 1.4 –0.6 1.5 –0.9

United States 2.6 1.4 1.9 0.2 1.8 –0.5

EA 2.0 1.3 0.9 –1.8 1.1 –2.5

Japan 0.6 0.6 0.4 –0.6 0.5 1.3

United Kingdom 2.2 1.9 0.5 –0.9 1.1 0.1

Emerging and developing economies

2.8 (3.9) 2.8 (3.9) 3.3 (4.3) 1.4 (2.6) 3.8 (4.6) 0.9 (2.2)

(Using official Chinese GDP) *as defined by the IMF

4 Available on Thomson Reuters Eikon

• Debt brings forward economic activity from the future to the present, allowing an economy to grow more rapidly for a time. But the quid pro quo is that it must grow less rapidly later, particularly if the resources that have been borrowed are consumed, or squandered on non-productive assets.

‘Business as usual’ – our central scenario

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

GDP per capitaUSD thousand, logarithmic scale

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100.5

1.0

5.0

10.0

50.0

US UK Germany Japan

GDP per capita

USD thousand, logarithmic scale

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

… Puts a fundamental tenet of economics at risk

• Since David Ricardo developed his theory of comparative advantage almost 200 years ago, a firm belief in the virtues of free trade has been one of the defining characteristics of an economist.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

Global tradeShare of global GDP, per cent

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 1520

30

40

50

60

70

Global trade

Share of global trade GDP, percent

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

5 Available on Thomson Reuters Eikon

Isolationism good for workers … a disaster for capitalists• Following a return to 1980s levels of

global trade as a share of global GDP, workers get a larger share of a smaller pie.

• We find that the former effect dominates – workers are better off. Equities plummet.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

US isolationismChanges relative to base, per cent

GDP Labour share Household income Equity prices-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

US Isolationism

Changes relative to base, percent

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

UK post-referendum panic short lived• The intense period of panic that followed the Brexit vote was short-lived, with the

uncontested appointment of Theresa May in early July appearing to put a floor under the currency.

• But following a Conservative Party Conference littered with speeches that spoke of a so-called ‘hard’ Brexit, investors have got the jitters again.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

UK equity pricesIndex, 23/06/2016 = 100

J F M A M J J A S O2016

70

80

90

100

110

120

FTSE 100, LC FTSE 250, LCFTSE 100, USD FTSE 250, USD

EU referendum TM is PM CPC16

UK equity prices

Index, 23/06/2016 = 100

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

Sterling exchange ratesSpot rate, both axes

J F M A M J J A S O2016

0.740.760.780.800.820.840.860.880.900.921.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

GBPUSD EURGBP (inverted) (RHS)

EU referendum TM is PMCPC16

Sterling exchange rates

spot rate, both axies

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

6

• Cooperation between members of the European single currency is, quite literally, vital.

Europe’s banking crisis

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

Non-performing loansPer cent of total gross loans

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 160

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Spain Germany USUK Greece FranceItaly Ireland Portugal

Non-performing loans

Percent of total gross loans

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

Mapping out a banking crisis

• Our own analysis puts BNP Paribas at the heart of the global banking system.

• A crisis at that French institution would spread rapidly around the world.

7 Available on Thomson Reuters Eikon

China’s economy has turned a corner …

• That China has succeeded in bringing its dramatic slowdown to a halt is now close to the consensus.

• We first alerted clients to this prospect – which we referred to as ‘doubling down’ – at the beginning of this year.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

GDP and Fathom China Momentum IndicatorFour-quarter percentage changes

1995 2000 2005 2010 20152

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

6.7

GDP Fathom China Momentum Indicator

2.7

GDP and Fathom China momentum indicator

Four-quarter percentage changes

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

We have been here before• According to our Financial Vulnerability

Indicator, when judging the risk of a banking crisis, it is not just the level of debt that matters. The rate of change of debt matters too.

• From a levels perspective, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds that seen in the UK and in the US on the eve of the 2008/09 financial crisis. It is close to the level seen in Japan shortly after that country’s bubble burst.

• The rate of growth of debt in China – proxied by its level relative to a ten-year moving average – has been phenomenal.

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

Credit to private non-financial sectorDifference relative to ten-year MA, percentage points

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15-40

-20

0

20

40

60

US Japan China UK Germany

Credit to private non-financial sector

Difference relative to ten-year MA, percentage points

Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream / Fathom Consulting

View and refresh chart in Thomson Reuters Eikon

WANT TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THOMSON REUTERS EIKON?

8

Here are just a few of the features in Thomson Reuters Eikon that we also think you’ll be interested in.

To request a free trial go to financial.thomsonreuters.com/eikon

Macro Explorer

• The Macro Explorer App offers compelling macroeconomic data visualization features to help you identify investment opportunities

• This intuitive app offers highly interactive market selection filters, that allow you to:

– Access hundreds of indicators to gain historical insight across markets

– Screen for markets meeting a wide range of performance or risk criteria

– View natural language generated insights with contextualised summaries of the data in view

– Display an interactive sector heat map with dozens of aggregate fundamentals available to choose from

– Search for deeper trends and multiple indicator comparisons using moving grids and scatter plots

– Visualize the real-time performance of your watchlists, portfolios and a selection of cross asset benchmarks on our world map view

– Navigate to country overview pages for further investigation – Export data to Microsoft Excel for further analysis

To access, type “Macro Explorer” or “MACROX”

The Macro Explorer App provides access to hundreds of indicators spanning historical and forecast data from 1990 to 2016. Indicators are grouped into five main categories:

• Key Indicators

• Oxford Economics

• World Bank WDI

• Premium Content from Fathom Consulting, IFO and Ipsos

• Thomson Reuters international comparable economics

The world map view allows you to compare multiple countries within the selected regions or groups.

9

Looking for Brexit Insight?

To access type BREXIT

10

Access everything you need to know in the Brexit App in Eikon including

• The latest news

• The Brexit Chartbook developed by Fathom Consulting

• Tools to help you monitor companies and also the macro view

Polls

To access type FX POLLS

11

Thomson Reuters Polls for FX, Central Banks, Economics and asset allocation

• Uncover opportunities with more accurate forecasts

• The SmartEstimate, places more weight on the most accurate forecasters, against consensus.

• See which contributors rank highest.

Economic Monitor

• Track all global macroeconomic indicator updates in a simple calendar interface

• Easily set up calendar updates in MS Outlook and create alerts for all economic events

• Quickly compare and contrast results with consensus estimates to identify market-moving positive/negative surprises

• Reuters economic polls allow you to track market expectations covering foreign exchange rates, macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, asset allocation and commodities & energy instruments, providing a context for developing your own economic and market scenarios

• 1,300 real-time economic indicators covered across 49 countries plus Euro Area and European Union aggregates

To access type in ECON MONITOR or EM

Click on the Indicator name to view a historical chart

Actuals are shown next to Reuters Poll Results

Shockwave indicators appear when the actual is outside the range of expectations

Thomson Reuters StarMine SmartEstimates can help you better predict the direction of macro surprises relative to the consensus forecast

Surprise readings can be used to anticipate market-moving announcements

12

Cross Asset Guides

13

• Eikon offers access to cross asset content with guides for

– Equities

– Fixed Income (FING)

– FX (FXG)

– Money Markets (MMG)

– Commodities

– Funds Overview and more

• From the broad market overview you can navigate down to key details on a specific instrument

• Get easy access to calculators and models via the “Market Data and Tools” tab

Click > Markets > select the guide of interest or use free text search or the codes in orange below

Mobile

14

• Get real-time, breaking headlines from all over the world

• Real-time pricing from anywhere on the instruments you cover and markets of interest through personalized lists and comprehensive asset class overview screens

• Use the “Briefcase” feature to read news articles, research reports, transcripts and more, even when offline

• Access Eikon via a web browser at eikon.thomsonreuters.com/login for access to the key data and apps you need if you are out of the office

• Google Chrome extension – Use the powerful “Analyze this” capability to scan through a webpage and extract related content from Eikon for Companies, Industries, Countries and People profiles

Download the Universal Eikon App for iPhone and iPad from the Apple App Store. For BlackBerry, go to BlackBerry World. For Android, go to the Google Play App Store. The Google Chrome extension is available for install from the Google Chrome Web Store: simply type EIKON and click on the +FREE button to install.

Collaboration

15

Next generation collaborationThomson Reuters Eikon Messenger provides you with secure, compliant access to the world’s largest directory of financial professionals.

• Instant message across networks, regardless of technology

• You can also send IMs directly to email

• Share real-time data quickly and easily with your contacts

• Message people on the move from your mobile device

• Gain even more insight on news and events by joining our exclusive invitation-only industry forums – each of which are led by expert Reuters journalists

• Share ideas and content with colleagues including workspaces, charts, and more

Global Markets Forum To access search for “GMF”The Global Markets Forum (GMF) is an exclusive real-time Reuters news editorial forum community designed for financial markets professionals. It offers:

• Exclusive coverage and unique views from the Reuters news desk and other market professionals

• Real-time market news, idea discussion and analysis with thousands of members globally

• Live Q&A with weekly special guests – industry thought leaders (world leaders, C-level executives, policy-makers, academia and more)

The solution for top-down macro analysis, sector research and asset allocation strategies To request a free trial go to financial.thomsonreuters.com/eikon

© 2016 Thomson Reuters. S037647 09/16.