A Review Of

Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for India

Presented by

Aditi Dass

Winrock International India

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Outline of presentation

Case Study on Drought and Flood in India

•Risks & vulnerabilities

•Adaptation strategies

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States selected on the basis of the level of vulnerability of the states to droughts, floods and cyclones which is a function of damages reported

Villages within the most drought prone districts of Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka selected.

Similarly, a case study in Orissa has been taken up within a flood prone district, which is also susceptible to cyclones.

Case Studies

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37 37

133

156

21

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

ExtremeTemperature

Land slides Wind Storm Flood Drought

No

. of e

ven

ts

0

400

800

1200

1600

To

tal n

o. o

f pe

op

le a

ffect

edno. of events

total affected

Number of people affected due to various extreme events in India

Damages due to extreme events during 1900 - 2004

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Probability of Occurrence of Droughts•A perennial feature

•19% of area affecting 12% of population annually

•Frequency of droughts:

•Tamilnadu, J&K, Telangana, West Rajasthan - every 2.5 years

•Gujarat, E. Rajasthan & W. Uttarpradesh – every 3 years

•Other states - every 4-5 years

•Based on the rainfall deficiency for the last 100 years

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Severe droughts in India in last 100 yearsYear % of country area

affected% of less rainfall over entire India

% of less rainfall over drought region

1918 71 -26 -49

1965 41 -17 -36

1972 47 -25 -35

1979 45 -21 -38

1987 50 -18 -45

After 1987, India experienced severe drought in 2002, where 29% of the area was affected

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1984

1986

1997

2000

2001

2002

Temporal-spatial spread of drought & impacts

Drought is occurring in some or the other part of the country

Primary impacts: water availability, agriculture production, hydropower generation

Secondary Impact: Agricultural GDP dips, increase in commodity prices, livelihood of people dependent on rainfed farming (marginal farmers & farm laborers surviving) affected

Rainfed areas (61%) – most affected

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Damages due to droughts

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1984 1985 1986 1987

dis

tric

ts /

po

pu

lati

on

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

cro

pp

ed a

rea

affe

cted

/ ca

ttle

p

op

.

Number of Districtsaffected

Population affected(lakh)

Cropped Areaaffected (lakh ha)

Cattle populationaffected (lakh)

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Case study analysis: Risks associated with droughts

Depletion in water resources for agriculture and drinking: women walk 1-2 kms to fetch water

Reduction in crop yields and change in cropping pattern Dwindling fodder stock and declining income of farmers

lead to cattle selling; esp. marginal and small farmers who sell at depressed prices

Increased incidences of debt Decline in nutrition and health status: malnutrition strikes

Mahboobnagar in AP (esp. among children and women) whenever drought occurs

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Government policies to combat droughts

Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI)

Rural Works Programme

Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP) - labor intensive schemes such as medium and minor irrigation, road construction, soil conservation and afforest action

Dissemination of technologies relating to soil management, water harvesting, improved agronomic practices and drought-resistant crops - CRIDA

Desert Development Programme (DDP)

Integrated Watershed Management Programme – rejuvenate depleted natural resources on watershed basis

National Watershed Program for Rainfed Areas (NWSDPRA) –around 22 mha

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Traditional coping strategies in response to drought

Physical

Household/Community Migration (15-30%) Sale of assets (land, livestock, durable assets) Reduce intake of food and decline in other expenditure Shift from superior to inferior food grain Mixed cropping

State/Government Food distribution system Water supply (tanker, new wells etc) Employment programs

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Social Sharing and cooperation Sacrifice by senior hh members New Community relationships Inter and intra community exchange programs

Economic Borrowing Imports/assistance Diversification in source of income Subsidy/grants Relief works

Traditional coping strategies in response to drought (contd.)

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Modern coping strategies

Farming techniques to retain productivity during droughts Soil & water conservation practices Farm Pond : enables storing runoff water Planting drought resistant varieties: provided by the state

Agriculture Univ. low adaptability of the above Livelihood: Education & skill based diversification of occupation Livestock: ownership pattern changed from few people owning

bigger herd size to almost all hh owning few small animalsGovt. efforts: area–specific development programs initiated for

drought prone areas to mitigate poverty

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Conclusion - drought

Marginal & small farmers and landless hh are most vulnerable to drought

Middle level farmers in AP also fallen prey to recurrent droughts due to: Decline of crop acreage Fall in water table & water harvesting structures Fall in employment & purchasing power Scarcity of food and fodder Lack of change in cropping pattern & lack of drought resistant seeds Inability of farmers to repay loans with continuous droughts

Drought in Rajasthan was effectively managed Dominant strategies in drought prone areas:

Adopting mixed farming system (crop, livestock & agro-forestry) Resources conservation approach Collective sustenance

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1986 1988 2000 2003

Floods in India and its impacts

010

203040

5060

7080

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999Po

pu

lati

on

aff

ecte

d (

millio

ns)

0

5

10

15

20

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Are

a af

fect

ed (

Mh

a)

2001

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Government expenditure and Damages due to floods

205.0

148.9

130.0

86.0

80.4

79.3

67.7

63.7

39.3

37.8

25.4

20.9

20.4

18.0

17.6

16.6

8.4

4.8

4.3

3.3

2.4

2.3

1.6

1.3

0.7

0.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

Utta

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Dam

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rore

s

(Cro

p+

housein

g_public

utilit

ies)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1974-7

5

1975-7

6

1976-7

71977-7

8

1978-7

9

1979-8

01980-8

1

1981-8

2

1982-8

31983-8

4

1984-8

5

1985-8

61986-8

7

1987-8

81988-8

9

1989-9

0

1990-9

11991-9

2

1992-9

3

1993-9

41994-9

5

1995-9

6

1996-9

71997-9

8

1998-9

9

1999-0

0

Go

vt.

sp

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rrig

ati

on

an

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ol

(RS

. IN

CR

OR

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)

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Impact of floods

Play major role in poverty & vulnerability, esp. of marginalized communities Damage on Infrastructure: health, sanitation, water supply, roads,

educational institutions and opportunities for environment Loss of individual property:

destroy of ‘kachcha’ houses, stored food & hh goods Poor looses assets each time flood occurs Poor have to take loans at high rate of interest for survival

Health: water borne diseases like cholera, dysentery, typhoid & other

gastrointestinal diseases Lack of effective health care system Unavailable & inaccessible due to prohibitive costs Lack of clean drinking water, well water mixes with flood water

Effect on women: loose control over food, fodder, fuel & cattle rearing In post-disaster recovery phases, women suffer the most Can’t get loans against lands because it is never in their names

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Structural measures

Construction of storage dams, reservoirs, embankments, drainage structures as required at suitable locations

•Raising the levels of the roads and constructing houses at higher heights or raising the plinth level of the houses

Non-structural measures

•Flood forecasting & warning. The Central Water Commission (CWC) has a flood forecasting system covering 62 major rivers in 13 States with 157 stations for transmission of flood warnings on real time basis.

•Post-flood activities for rescue, relief and rehabilitation operations.

People’s Participation

Coping with FloodsB A S I C

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Case study : Coping Measures taken by Jagatsinghpur in Orissa (worst flood affected in 2001)

Heights of embankments raised by 3-4 ft Repairing jobs of weak points of embankment was taken

up by govt. Elevated spots “merdha’ were used for immediate shelter

to flood affected people Mud houses which were completely washed away, were

rebuilt at an elevated area Just before onset of monsoon people got ready with dry

food reserve and other essential items Different variety of paddy is sown in flood prone areas

which are not destroyed even if the plant remains under water until 10 days

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Conclusion - flood

3 successive disasters have seriously affected sustainability of livelihoods in Jagatsinghpur Super cyclone 1999 Flood 2001 Flood 2003

Loss of thousands of lives Areas most affected by flood of 2001 and 2003 were

areas affected by cyclone in 1999 Poor disaster preparedness Restoration works have to extend beyond normal time

frame Devastating flood has given opportunity to reflect gaps in

our disaster preparedness methods & mechanisms

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Mainstreaming Climate Change, Vulnerability & Adaptation Concerns

Why

•Climate change has long term effects & impacts may be irreversible

•Long gestation period required for adaptation

•Infrastructure lifetimes are long and are at risk

•Long time scales required for institutional arrangements to be in place for combating impacts of CC

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What do we need to do differently because of the expected adverse impacts of climate change?

Question

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Thank You

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