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A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment George Michaelson [email protected]

A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

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Page 1: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment

George Michaelson

[email protected]

Page 2: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, worldwide (weighted)

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Page 3: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

6.5%? Google says 10+?

• APNIC applies a weighting function to sum the measurements, – based on ITU internet population data, to adjust

for sample size anomalies worldwide.

• If you like, consider this worldwide figure as a low-side count– and the Google (and other) measures as a high-

side count:

• Its probably somewhere inbetween the two

Page 4: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, worldwide (weighted)

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Page 5: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

CC IPv6%

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

BE 53.35% CH 29.49% US 29.02% DE 28.44% PT 28.33% GR 26.77%

EE 19.34% PE 18.97% LU 17.63% JP 16.79% FI 16.76% MY 13.81%

EU 12.94% FR 12.54% BR 10.86% GB 10.78% CA 10.35% NO 9.65%

HT 9.50% NL 8.27% SG 8.23% RO 8.13% AT 7.26% CZ 6.21%

CC IPv6%

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6 %

CC IPv6%

IE 5.36% AU 4.82% HU 4.56% BO 4.35% SE 4.28% AX 4.05%

SA 3.97% BA 3.71% NZ 3.03% PL 2.86% TR 2.30% HK 1.53%

SI 1.51% LK 1.41% MT 1.34% RU 1.33% IN 1.30% KR 1.20%

TT 0.96% BT 0.86% CW 0.77% BG 0.68% CN 0.51% VN 0.50%

IT 0.49% UA 0.43% MD 0.40% DK 0.39% IL 0.36% TH 0.33%

SD 0.27% BQ 0.23% SK 0.21% LV 0.21% ZA 0.21% LT 0.21%

BW 0.17% GF 0.16% MK 0.12% TW 0.12% CL 0.12% ES 0.11%

IS 0.11% ID 0.10% TZ 0.10% GT 0.10% PA 0.10%

Above and Below the Line:

Page 6: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Emerging problem in AP region

• Few economies in the AP region are above world-grade IPv6 capability (green)

• Of the economies below the line, many are stagnant (red), some are moving upward (yellow)

• Hard to quantify what quality determines ranking:– Its not just about economic size, diversity of ISP

– Is it about capital investment?

Page 7: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Two kinds of Internet?

• IPv4 and IPv6 can’t directly inter-operate as protocols– You can tunnel, and you can gateway but you can’t

send IP packets directly from • 2000::/3 to 10.0.0.0/8

– The decision to proceed with IPv6 deployment implies dual-stack operations, short or long term

– The decision to remain in IPv4 implies increasing use of CGN and other techniques to maximise address re-use

• There is no avoidance of extra technology cost to continue to grow the Internet.

Page 8: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

It looks like it on macro scale

• There are signs that at a high-level view, the economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4– Its not just about size, or economic capacity

• Lets review some of the players in each ‘camp’– Some economies with signs of significant IPv6

deployment

– Some economies with little or no sign of significant IPv6 deployment

Page 9: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, worldwide (weighted)

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Page 10: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

High IPv6 capability in Asia-Pacific

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SG

Page 11: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

SK Telecom (Korea)

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Page 12: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

TMNET (Malaysia)

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Page 13: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Softbank-BB, KDDI (Japan)

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17676

2516

Page 14: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

StarHub, StarHub CableVision (Singapore)

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55430

10091

Page 15: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Telstra, Internode, Australia

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1221

4739

Page 16: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

High IPv6 capability, selected economies Worldwide

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US

GB

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EC

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Page 17: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by sample, USASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS7922 Comcast Cable Communications, Inc. 61.75% 57.28% 14304843

AS7018 ATT-INTERNET4 - ATT Services, Inc. 80.57% 73.20% 8526953

AS8075 Microsoft Corporation 0.00% 0.00% 5325116

AS701 Verizon Business 0.14% 0.01% 4728691

AS20115 Charter Communications 0.10% 0.02% 3463344

AS22773 Cox Communications Inc. 17.46% 16.15% 3164061

AS22394 Verizon Wireless 89.70% 80.89% 2621733

AS209 Qwest Communications Company 0.17% 0.10% 2432793

AS20057 ATT Mobility 9.50% 9.32% 2410034

AS10796 Time Warner Cable Internet 23.30% 21.79% 1999827

Page 18: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Sample, BEASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS5432 BELGACOM-SKYNET-AS Proximus NV 44.06% 42.09% 958021

AS6848 TELENET-AS Telenet N.V. 71.09% 67.94% 879004

AS12392 ASBRUTELE Brutele SC 72.96% 70.51% 237980

AS47377 MES Mobistar SA 0.20% 0.05% 56730

AS21502 Numericable S.A. 0.01% 0.01% 48287

AS2611 BELNET BELNET 13.39% 12.44% 25361

AS44944 BASE-AS BASE Company NVSA 0.45% 0.16% 22518

AS29587 SCHEDOM-AS schedom vof 0.00% 0.00% 9654

AS41756 Orascom Telecom Algeria Spa 0.00% 0.00% 8245

AS51964 ORANGE-BUSINESS-SERVICES-IPSN 0.00% 0.00% 7811

Page 19: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples, GBASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS5607 Sky UK Limited 51.06% 49.36% 798472

AS5089 NTL Virgin Media Limited 0.01% 0.01% 739599

AS43766 MTC-KSA-AS MTC KSA 0.00% 0.00% 676236

AS2856 British Telecommunications PLC 0.26% 0.24% 658706

AS13285 TalkTalk Communications Limited 0.00% 0.00% 173033

AS12576 ORANGE-PCS EE Limited 0.10% 0.05% 154985

AS9105 TISCALI-UK Tiscali UK Limited 0.00% 0.00% 153678

AS9009 M247 M247 Ltd 0.06% 0.02% 142583

AS60339 H3GUK Hutchison 3G UK Limited 0.09% 0.03% 97854

AS34825 ONAVO Onavo Mobile Ltd 0.01% 0.00% 90392

Page 20: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples, DEASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS3320 DTAG Deutsche Telekom AG 50.24% 48.39% 256677

AS200185 XANDMAIL-ASN X AND MAIL SA 0.00% 0.00% 115142

AS3209 VODANET Vodafone GmbH 0.15% 0.07% 81574

AS24940 HETZNER-AS Hetzner Online GmbH 5.86% 4.78% 65769

AS28753 Leaseweb Deutschland GmbH 39.91% 0.71% 61988

AS31334 Vodafone Kabel Deutschland GmbH 69.06% 65.82% 59817

AS6805 Telefonica Germany GmbH Co.OHG 0.41% 0.33% 52396

AS6830 Liberty Global Operations B.V. 58.68% 55.50% 40648

AS8972 PLUSSERVER-AS PlusServer AG 0.81% 0.05% 25969

AS29562 KABELBW-ASN Kabel BW GmbH 56.36% 53.48% 23299

Page 21: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples BRASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS28573 CLARO S.A. 22.60% 20.60% 1354868

AS18881 Global Village Telecom 21.89% 20.73% 892808

AS7738 Telemar Norte Leste S.A. 3.84% 3.68% 575631

AS27699 TELEFNICA BRASIL S.A 2.26% 2.10% 419031

AS8167 Brasil Telecom SA - 2.46% 2.39% 339728

AS26615 Tim Celular S.A. 4.71% 4.60% 104354

AS26599 TELEFNICA BRASIL S.A 13.51% 13.12% 102621

AS53006 ALGAR TELECOM SA 0.05% 0.05% 62938

AS14868 COPEL Telecom S.A. 22.30% 21.73% 44573

AS22085 Claro SA 0.19% 0.04% 40324

Page 22: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples, ECASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS14420 CNT EP 45.13% 43.66% 1582536

AS14522 Satnet 0.00% 0.00% 438480

AS27947 Telconet S.A 0.03% 0.03% 424395

AS27738 Ecuadortelecom S.A. 0.00% 0.00% 278140

AS23487 CONECEL 0.02% 0.01% 157551

AS19114 Otecel S.A. 0.03% 0.01% 155074

AS52257 Telconet S.A 0.01% 0.00% 135138

AS27668 ETAPA EP 0.00% 0.00% 126933

AS22724 PUNTONET S.A. 0.01% 0.01% 110372

AS28006 CNT EP 0.02% 0.01% 42226

Page 23: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Comcast, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile

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7922

22394

7018

21928

Page 24: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan

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Page 25: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 Capability, Taiwan

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Page 26: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

What we know about Taiwan23,394,842 people

19,651,667 users

84% penetration

342 ASes

0.00 GDP

IPv4 133 in BGP

35,497,984 addresses

1.52 per head

97% visible

IPv6 48 in BGP

10,127,533 M addresses

432,895 per head

11% visible

0% capability

Page 27: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples TaiwanASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS3462 HINET Data Communication 0.10% 0.09% 8228218

AS24158 Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. 0.02% 0.00% 1279840

AS17421 Long Distance Mobile Business 0.01% 0.00% 1211699

AS9674 Far EastTone Telecommunications 0.00% 0.00% 1071602

AS9924 TFN-TW Taiwan Fixed Network 0.00% 0.00% 576950

AS9416 Hoshin Multimedia Center Inc. 0.03% 0.00% 450236

AS38841 KBRO-AS-TW kbro CO. Ltd. 0.01% 0.00% 419858

AS4780 SEEDNET Digital United Inc. 0.00% 0.00% 258359

AS24164 YEONG JIA LEH CABLE TV CO., LTD. 0.00% 0.00% 205423

AS18182 Sony Network Taiwan Limited 0.01% 0.00% 175727

Page 28: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 IPv6 Capablity TaiwanASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS131150 Education Bureau, Kaohsiung City 93.31% 81.61% 299

AS17713 National Sun Yat-sen University 26.35% 25.87% 2304

AS18177 National Cheng Kung University 16.34% 13.39% 1016

AS7539 TANet2, sponsored by NSC, TAIWAN 12.99% 10.73% 177

AS1659 Taiwan Academic Network (TANet) 12.98% 11.51% 56923

AS18042 KBT Koos Broadband Telecom 9.44% 9.44% 233

AS18420 NCU-TW National Central University 2.99% 2.99% 2239

AS131584 Taiwan Intelligent Fiber Optic. 2.90% 2.72% 552

AS9916 National Chiao Tung University 1.98% 1.75% 5200

AS18047 National Tsing-Hua University 1.12% 0.15% 1959

Page 29: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, China

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Page 30: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

What we know about China1,382,013,910 people

692,388,968 users

50% penetration

1,273 ASes

10.35T GDP

IPv4 316 in BGP

337,887,232 addresses

0.24 per head

88% visible

IPv6 55 in BGP

89,167,817 M addresses

64,520 per head

1% visible

1% capability

Page 31: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples ChinaASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS4134 CHINANET-BACKBONE 0.42% 0.24% 12628000

AS4837 CHINA169-BACKBONE CNCGROUP 0.21% 0.15% 9910451

AS9808 Guangdong Mobile Communication 0.09% 0.03% 2006643

AS4812 CHINANET-SH-AP China Telecom 0.17% 0.07% 1632577

AS4808 CHINA169-BJ CNCGROUP IP network 1.12% 0.77% 1166552

AS56046 CMNET-JIANGSU-AP China Mobile 0.07% 0.01% 779374

AS56041 CMNET-ZHEJIANG-AP China Mobile 0.05% 0.00% 720916

AS24547 Hebei Mobile Communication 0.03% 0.00% 698409

AS17816 China Unicom IP network 0.27% 0.19% 479682

AS23724 China Telecommunications n 0.14% 0.01% 317333

Page 32: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 IPv6 Capability, ChinaASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS23910 China Next Generation Internet 98.43% 92.52% 508

AS109 CISCOSYSTEMS - Cisco Systems, Inc. 73.08% 66.59% 416

AS4538 China Ed. and Research Network 25.05% 18.81% 186951

AS7497 Computer Network Information 23.73% 22.28% 18295

AS18240 Bitone United Networks Technology 8.12% 5.65% 15153

AS4809 China Telecom Next Generation 7.38% 5.48% 16227

AS56040 China Mobile communications 6.81% 3.83% 73891

AS38019 Mobile Communication Company 3.30% 2.38% 13318

AS58466 CHINANET Guangdong province 2.79% 0.00% 11758

AS4847 China Networks Inter-Exchange 2.63% 1.99% 184230

Page 33: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

IPv6 capability, Hong Kong

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

20

11

-10

20

12

-01

20

12

-04

20

12

-07

20

12

-10

20

13

-01

20

13

-04

20

13

-07

20

13

-10

20

14

-01

20

14

-04

20

14

-07

20

14

-10

20

15

-01

20

15

-04

20

15

-07

20

15

-10

20

16

-01

20

16

-04

% IP

v6 C

apab

le

Page 34: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

What we know about Hong Kong7,343,215 people

5,911,288 users

80% penetration

717 ASes

0.00 GDP

IPv4 402 in BGP

11,505,408 addresses

1.57 per head

93% visible

IPv6 102 in BGP

1,095,223 M addresses

149,147 per head

13% visible

1% capability

Page 35: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 by Samples Hong KongASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS9269 Hong Kong Broadband Network Ltd. 0.01% 0.00% 1613594

AS4760 PCCW Limited 0.08% 0.07% 1506121

AS9304 Hutchison Global Communications 0.02% 0.00% 378815

AS9908 HKCABLE2-HK-AP HK Cable TV Ltd 0.00% 0.00% 185989

AS38819 HKCSL-AS-AP HKCSL GPRS NETWORK 0.00% 0.00% 107115

AS17924 SmarTone Mobile Communications 0.00% 0.00% 94959

AS9231 China Mobile Hong Kong Company 0.00% 0.00% 72516

AS55536 PACSWITCH GLOBAL IP NETWORK 94.03% 0.01% 67613

AS10118 Hutchison Telephone Company 0.01% 0.00% 37594

AS9444 Hong Kong Telecommunications 0.00% 0.00% 32817

Page 36: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

Top 10 IPv6 Capability, Hong KongASN AS Name IPv6

CapableIPv6 Preferred

# Samples

AS55536 PACSWITCH GLOBAL IP NETWORK 93.99% 0.01% 67213

AS4528 The University of Hong Kong 67.76% 52.91% 1253

AS24236 Yahoo Bangalore NetworkMonitoring 51.83% 43.90% 164

AS45187 Rackspace IT Hosting AS IT Hosting 28.38% 28.27% 4563

AS24334 Cyberport Hong Kong 19.49% 19.17% 313

AS36236 Host Virtual, Inc 8.98% 7.78% 167

AS10103 HK Broadband Network Ltd. 3.44% 0.00% 4707

AS55720 GIGABIT-MY Gigabit Hosting Sdn Bhd 2.21% 0.37% 271

AS36351 SoftLayer Technologies Inc. 1.90% 0.46% 7770

AS132597 Hong Kong Serverworks Limited 1.44% 0.96% 209

Page 37: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

So: is this an address distribution problem?

Page 38: A review of current worldwide IPv6 deployment · economies investing in IPv6 are now diverging from the ones who are staying in IPv4 –Its not just about size, or economic capacity

No! This isn’t a distribution problem

• Lets look at some history

– Growth in distinct INR holders by economy over time

– Amount of IPv4, IPv6 by INR holder count by economy over time

• What kinds of trend do we see?