A RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL - NOLA

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.P.O. Box 4907Clinton, New Jersey 08809

908 735-6336www.ZVA.cc • [email protected]

Research & Strategic Analysis

AN ANALYSIS OFRESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL

The New Orleans East Development AreaThe City of New Orleans, Louisiana

FEBRUARY, 2009

This analysis has determined the market potential for new affordable as well as market-rate

housing units within the New Orleans East Development Area, an area predominantly south

of Interstate 10 between Mayo and Wright Roads in Planning District 9, City of New

Orleans.

For the purposes of this analysis, market-rate is defined as affordable to households with

incomes above 80 percent of the New Orleans/Metairie/Kenner Area Median Family Income

(AMFI), which, in 2008, was $59,800 for a family of four. Based on household size, the

income limits to qualify for affordable housing would be $33,500 for a one-person

household; $38,300 for a two-person household; $43,050 for a three-person household;

$47,850 for a four-person household; and so on. However, this affordability standard does

not apply to new construction, which is estimated by the New Orleans Redevelopment

Authority to average $250,000 per unit.

Where does the potential market for new housing unitswithin the New Orleans East Development Area currently live?

As derived from migration, mobility and target market analysis, the draw area distribution of

market potential (those households with the potential to rent or purchase new housing units

within the New Orleans East Development Area) is as follows:

Market Potential by Draw AreaTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA

City of New Orleans, LouisianaCity of New Orleans (Primary Draw Area): 45.2%

Jefferson, St. Tammany, St. Bernards Parishes (Regional Draw Area): 32.5%

East Baton Rouge Parish: 4.6%Balance of Louisiana: 7.6%

Balance of US: 10.1 %

Total: 100.0%

AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL: THE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA Page 2The City of New Orleans (Orleans Parish), LouisianaFebruary, 2009

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC.

How many households are likely to move to the New Orleans East Development Area eachyear and who are they?

As derived by the target market methodology, up to 2,370 households represent the annual

potential market for new mixed-income housing units that could be developed within the

New Orleans East Development Area. These households comprise just over 10 percent of

the approximately 23,200 households that represent the annual potential market for new and

existing housing units in the City of New Orleans as a whole, a share of the market that is

consistent with Zimmerman/Volk Associates’ experience in other cities..

The household groups that comprise the potential market for new mixed-income housing

units on the site are:

• Younger singles and childless couples (51 percent);• A range of urban and suburban families (34 percent); and• Empty nesters and retirees (15 percent).

What are their housing preferences?

Based on the tenure and housing preferences of the target households, the distribution of

new mixed-income rental and for-sale housing types is as follows:

Target Residential Mix: New Housing UnitsBy Income Levels and Financial Capabilities

THE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREACity of New Orleans, Louisiana

NUMBER OF PERCENTHOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS OF TOTAL

Multi-family for-rent (BMR*) 620 26.2%Multi-family for-rent (market-rate†) 720 30.4%

Multi-family for-sale (BMR*) 150 6.3%Multi-family for-sale (market-rate†) 220 9.3%

Single-family attached for-sale (BMR*) 110 4.6%Single-family attached for-sale (market-rate†) 140 5.9%

Single-family detached for-sale (BMR*) 190 8.0%Single-family detached for-sale (market-rate†) 220 9.3 %

Total 2,370 100.0%

* BMR: Below Market-Rate.† Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes above 80 percent of

the New Orleans Area Median Family Income (AMI), as of March 2008, of $59,800for a family of four, adjusted for household size.



This market-driven mix includes approximately 57 percent rental housing units, and 43

percent for-sale housing units.

How many new dwelling unitscould be leased or sold within the area over the next five years?

After more than 20 years’ experience in scores of cities across the country, and in the context

of the target market methodology, Zimmerman/Volk Associates has determined that those

households that prefer new dwelling units comprise approximately 10 to 15 percent of the

potential market, depending on housing type. (According to the National Association of

Realtors, new housing units represent approximately 15 percent of all units sold nationally in

a given year.) Based on a capture rate of 10 to 15 percent of the annual potential market for

new housing units on the site, the New Orleans East Development Area could theoretically

support up to 323 new units per year, as follows:

Annual Capture of Market PotentialTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA

City of New Orleans, Louisiana

NUMBER OF CAPTURE NUMBER OFHOUSING TYPE HOUSEHOLDS RATE NEW UNITS

Multi-family for-rent 1,340 15% 201(lofts/apartments, leaseholder)

For-Sale Multi-Family 370 15% 56(lofts/apartments, condo/co-op ownership)

For-Sale Single-Family Attached 250 10% 25(rowhouses/duplexes,

fee-simple/condominium ownership)

Small-Lot For-Sale Single-Family Detached 410 10% 41 (detached houses, fee-simple ownership)

Total 2,370 323 units

At these capture rates, absorption of up to 1,000 new dwelling units within the New Orleans

East mixed-use, mixed-income development area could be achieved within five to seven years

from commencement of marketing, depending on phasing and construction, and barring a

long-term continuation of recessionary conditions in the national economy.



NOTE: Target market capture rates are a unique and highly-refined measure of feasibility. Targetmarket capture rates are not equivalent to—and should not be confused with—penetration rates ortraffic conversion rates.

The target market capture rate is derived by dividing the annual forecast absorption—in aggregateand by housing type—by the number of households that have the potential to purchase or rent newhousing within a specified area in a given year. The target market capture rate is a measure developedover nearly two decades of empirical, site-specific analysis that establishes the feasible percentages thatcan reasonably be applied to the potential market for each housing type.

The penetration rate is derived by dividing the total number of dwelling units planned for a propertyby the total number of draw area households, sometimes qualified by income. The penetration rate islargely an academic measure that establishes the percentage of households from within a defined areathat must move to a housing project to achieve 100 percent occupancy.

The traffic conversion rate is derived by dividing the total number of buyers or renters by the totalnumber of prospects that have visited a site. The traffic conversion rate is a measure of theeffectiveness of sales and leasing efforts.

Because the prospective market for a location is more precisely defined, target market capture rates arehigher than the more grossly-derived penetration rates. However, the resulting higher capture ratesare well within the range of prudent feasibility.

What is the market currently able to pay for the new units?

—Rental Distribution—

Based on the target household mix and the incomes and financial capabilities of the target

households, the distribution by rent ranges of the 201 new rental units that could be

absorbed each year over the next five years within the New Orleans East Development Area

would be as follows:

Rental Apartment Distribution by Rent RangeTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA

City of New Orleans, LouisianaMONTHLY UNITS

RENT RANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE

$500–$750 38 18.9%$750–$1,000 54 26.9%

$1,000–$1,250 50 19.9%$1,250–$1,500 24 11.9%$1,500–$1,750 21 10.4%$1,750–$2,000 12 6.0%$2,000 and up 12 6.0 %

Total: 201 100.0%



—For-Sale Distribution—

Based on the target household mix and the incomes of the target households, the distribution

by price range of the 56 new for-sale apartments that could be absorbed each year over the

next five years within the New Orleans East Development Area would be as follows:

For-Sale Apartment Distribution by Price RangeTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA


PRICE UNITSRANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE

$50,000–$100,000 10 17.9%$100,000–$150,000 15 26.8%$150,000–$200,000 10 17.9%$200,000–$250,000 10 17.9%$250,000–$300,000 6 10.7%

$300,000 and up 5 8.8 %

Total: 56 100.0%

Based on the target household mix and incomes of the target groups, the distribution by

price range of the 25 new rowhouses/duplexes that could be absorbed each year over the next

five years within the New Orleans East Development Area would be as follows:

Rowhouse/Duplex Distribution by Price RangeTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA

City of New Orleans, LouisianaPRICE UNITSRANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE

$50,000–$100,000 6 24.0%$100,000–$150,000 4 16.0%$150,000–$200,000 6 24.0%$200,000–$250,000 4 16.0%$250,000–$300,000 3 12.0%

$300,000 and up 2 8.0 %

Total: 25 100.0%



Based on the target household mix and incomes of the target groups, the distribution by

price range of the 41 new detached houses that could be absorbed each year over the next

five years within the New Orleans East Development Area would be as follows:

Detached House Distribution by Price RangeTHE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREA


PRICE UNITSRANGE PER YEAR PERCENTAGE

$50,000–$100,000 7 17.1%$100,000–$150,000 6 14.6%$150,000–$200,000 9 22.0%$200,000–$250,000 9 22.0%$250,000–$300,000 6 14.6%

$300,000 and up 4 9.7 %

Total: 41 100.0%

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AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL: THE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREAThe City of New Orleans (Orleans Parish), LouisianaFebruary, 2009

Main Tables

o

Table 1

Potential Market For New Housing UnitsDistribution Of Draw Area Households With The Potential

To Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each Year Over The Next Five YearsBased On Housing Preferences And Income Levels

Orleans Parish (City of New Orleans), Louisiana

Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, St. Bernards, and East Baton Rouge Parishes, Louisiana;Balance of Louisiana; All Other US Counties

Draw Areas

Average Annual Total HouseholdsWith Potential To Rent/Purchase Within The New Orleans East Development Area 2,370

Potential Housing Market. . . . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . For-Rent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For-Sale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Below Below

Market-Rate† Market-Rate† AllRanges AllRanges Market-Rate† Market-Rate†Apts. Apts. Apts. Attached Detached Detached Total

Total Households: 620 720 370 250 190 220 2,370{Percent}: 26.2% 30.4% 15.8% 10.5% 8.0% 9.3% 100.0%

† Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes above 80 percent ofthe New Orleans AMFI (Area Median Family Income), which is $59,800 for a family of four in 2008.

NOTE: Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 through 8B; Appendix Three, Tables 1A Through 4.

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.;Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.

Table 2

Potential Housing Market By Household TypeDistribution Of Draw Area Households With The Potential

To Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each Year Over The Next Five YearsBased On Housing Preferences And Income Levels

Orleans Parish (City of New Orleans), Louisiana

. . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . For-Rent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For-Sale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Below Below

Market-Rate* Market-Rate* AllRanges AllRanges Market-Rate* Market-Rate*Total Apts. Apts. Apts. Attached Detached Detached

Number of Households: 2,370 620 720 370 250 190 220

Empty Nesters& Retirees 15% 17% 13% 14% 16% 26% 14%

Traditional &Non-Traditional Families 34% 35% 26% 22% 44% 48% 55%

YoungerSingles & Couples 51% 48% 61% 64% 40% 26% 31%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

* Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes above 80 percent ofthe New Orleans AMFI (Area Median Family Income), which is $59,800 for a family of four in 2008.

NOTE: Reference Appendix One, Tables 1 through 8B; Appendix Three, Tables 1A Through 4.


Table 3 Page 1 of 3

Potential Market For New Multi-Family For RentThe New Orleans East Development Area

Orleans Parish, Louisiana

BelowEmpty Nesters Market-Rate† Market-Rate† 15%

& Retirees Apts. Apts. Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 10 2Multi-Ethnic Retirees 0 10 10 2

Downtown Retirees 10 0 10 2Multi-Ethnic Seniors 40 20 60 9

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesMiddle-Class Move-Downs 0 10 10 2

Blue-Collar Retirees 0 10 10 2Second City Seniors 40 20 60 9

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Seniors 10 10 20 3

Subtotal: 100 90 190 31



Table 3 Page 2 of 3

Potential Market For New Multi-Family For RentThe New Orleans East Development Area


BelowTraditional & Market-Rate† Market-Rate† 15%

Non-Traditional Families Apts. Apts. Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 0 10 10 2

Multi-Cultural Families 10 10 20 3Inner-City Families 80 40 120 16

Single-Parent Families 60 20 80 12

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesUnibox Transferees 0 10 10 2

Multi-Ethnic Families 10 20 30 5In-Town Families 50 30 80 12

Metropolitan SuburbsFull-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 2

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 10 30 40 6Working-Class Families 0 10 10 2

Subtotal: 220 190 410 62



Table 3 Page 3 of 3

Target Groups For New Multi-Family For RentThe New Orleans East Development Area


BelowYounger Market-Rate† Market-Rate† 15%

Singles & Couples Apts. Apts. Total Capture

Metropolitan Citiese-Types 0 30 30 5

New Bohemians 20 50 70 9Urban Achievers 50 100 150 21

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesThe VIPs 0 10 10 2

Twentysomethings 10 30 40 6Small-City Singles 20 30 50 8

Blue-Collar Singles 30 20 50 8Soul City Singles 70 30 100 13

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 0 10 10 2

Fast-Track Professionals 0 10 10 2Upscale Suburban Couples 0 10 10 2

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 2Suburban Achievers 10 30 40 6

Working-Class Singles 90 70 160 22

Subtotal: 300 440 740 108

Total Households: 620 720 1,340 201Percent of Total: 46.3% 53.7% 100.0%



Table 4 Page 1 of 3

Potential Market For New Multi-Family For SaleThe New Orleans East Development Area



& Retirees Apts. Apts. Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 10 2Multi-Ethnic Seniors 10 0 10 2


Second City Seniors 10 0 10 2

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Seniors 10 0 10 2

Subtotal: 30 20 50 10

† Market rate is defined as affordable to households with incomes above 80 percent ofthe New Orleans AMFI (Area Median Family Income), which is $59,800 for for a family of four in 2008.


Table 4 Page 2 of 3




Non-Traditional Families Apts. Apts. Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 0 10 10 2Inner-City Families 20 0 20 3


Small Cities/Satellite CitiesMulti-Ethnic Families 0 10 10 2

In-Town Families 20 0 20 2

Metropolitan SuburbsBlue-Collar Button-Downs 0 10 10 2

Subtotal: 50 30 80 13



Table 4 Page 3 of 3




Singles & Couples Apts. Apts. Total Capture





Blue-Collar Singles 10 0 10 2Soul City Singles 10 0 10 2

Metropolitan SuburbsUpscale Suburban Couples 0 10 10 2

Suburban Achievers 20 40 60 6Working-Class Singles 20 10 30 5

Subtotal: 70 170 240 33

Total Households: 150 220 370 56Percent of Total: 40.5% 59.5% 100.0%



Table 5 Page 1 of 3

Potential Market For New Single-Family Attached For SaleThe New Orleans East Development Area



& Retirees SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 10 1

Downtown Retirees 10 0 10 1


Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Retirees 10 0 10 1

Subtotal: 20 20 40 4



Table 5 Page 2 of 3




Non-Traditional Families SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture


Multi-Cultural Families 0 10 10 1Inner-City Families 10 0 10 1




Metropolitan SuburbsFull-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 1

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 10 10 20 2

Subtotal: 50 60 110 11



Table 5 Page 3 of 3




Singles & Couples SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture





Blue-Collar Singles 10 0 10 1

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Achievers 10 10 20 2


Subtotal: 40 60 100 10




Table 6 Page 1 of 3

Potential Market For New Single-Family Detached For SaleThe New Orleans East Development Area



& Retirees SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 10 1

Cosmopolitan Couples 0 10 10 1Multi-Ethnic Retirees 10 0 10 1


Blue-Collar Retirees 10 0 10 1Second City Seniors 10 0 10 1

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Retirees 10 0 10 1Suburban Seniors 10 0 10 1

Subtotal: 50 30 80 8



Table 6 Page 2 of 3




Non-Traditional Families SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture


Multi-Cultural Families 10 0 10 1



Metropolitan SuburbsLate-Nest Suburbanites 10 20 30 3Full-Nest Suburbanites 10 20 30 3

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 20 20 40 4Working-Class Families 10 0 10 1

Subtotal: 90 120 210 21



Table 6 Page 3 of 3




Singles & Couples SF Attached SF Attached Total Capture



Blue-Collar Singles 10 0 10 1

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 0 20 20 2

Fast-Track Professionals 0 10 10 1Upscale Suburban Couples 0 10 10 1

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 1Suburban Achievers 10 0 10 1


Subtotal: 50 70 120 12




AN ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL: THE NEW ORLEANS EAST DEVELOPMENT AREAThe City of New Orleans (Orleans Parish), LouisianaFebruary, 2009

Appendix Tables

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Appendix Three, Table 1A Page 1 of 4

Households With The PotentialTo Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each Year

Households In Groups With Median Incomes Above $50,000Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, St. Bernards, and East Baton Rouge Parishes, Louisiana;

Balance of Louisiana; All Other US Counties

Household Type/ Orleans Adjacent E. Baton Rouge Balance of All OtherGeographic Designation Parish Parishes Parish Louisiana US Counties Total

Empty Nesters & Retirees 50 30 10 20 0 110

Metropolitan Cities 40 20 0 10 0 70Small Cities/Satellite Cities 10 10 10 10 0 40

Metropolitan Suburbs 0 0 0 0 0 0Town & Country/Exurbs 0 0 0 0 0 0

Traditional &Non-Traditional Families 70 190 40 60 40 400



YoungerSingles & Couples 370 240 30 50 110 800



Total: 490 460 80 130 150 1,310Percent: 37.4% 35.1% 6.1% 9.9% 11.5% 100.0%






Orleans Adjacent E. Baton Rouge Balance of All OtherParish Parishes Parish Louisiana US Counties Total

Empty Nesters& Retirees 50 30 10 20 0 110

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 20 10 0 10 0 40

Cosmopolitan Couples 10 0 0 0 0 10Multi-Ethnic Retirees 10 10 0 0 0 20

Subtotal: 40 20 0 10 0 70

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesMiddle-Class Move-Downs 10 10 10 10 0 40

Subtotal: 10 10 10 10 0 40








Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 20 10 0 10 10 50

Multi-Cultural Families 20 10 0 10 0 40Subtotal: 40 20 0 20 10 90

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesUnibox Transferees 10 20 0 10 0 40

Multi-Ethnic Families 20 30 10 10 10 80Subtotal: 30 50 10 20 10 120

Metropolitan SuburbsLate-Nest Suburbanites 0 20 10 0 0 30Full-Nest Suburbanites 0 20 10 10 10 50

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 0 80 10 10 10 110Subtotal: 0 120 30 20 20 190








Metropolitan Citiese-Types 50 0 0 0 10 60

New Bohemians 80 20 0 0 10 110Urban Achievers 140 40 0 10 10 200

Subtotal: 270 60 0 10 30 370

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesThe VIPs 20 10 0 10 10 50

Twentysomethings 30 10 10 10 10 70Small-City Singles 30 20 10 10 10 80

Subtotal: 80 40 20 30 30 200

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 10 10 0 0 10 30

Fast-Track Professionals 0 10 0 0 10 20Upscale Suburban Couples 0 20 0 0 10 30

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 20 0 0 0 20Suburban Achievers 10 80 10 10 20 130

Subtotal: 20 140 10 10 50 230


Appendix Three, Table 1B Page 1 of 3


Households In Groups With Median Incomes Below $50,000Orleans, Jefferson, St. Tammany, St. Bernards, and East Baton Rouge Parishes, Louisiana;


Household Type/ Orleans Adjacent E. Baton Rouge Balance of All OtherGeographic Designation Parish Parishes Parish Louisiana US Counties Total








Small Cities/Satellite Cities 100 40 10 20 20 190Metropolitan Suburbs 60 110 10 10 20 210

Town & Country/Exurbs 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total: 580 310 30 50 90 1,060Percent: 54.7% 29.2% 2.8% 4.7% 8.5% 100.0%







Empty Nesters& Retirees 140 90 0 10 10 250

Metropolitan CitiesDowntown Retirees 20 0 0 0 0 20

Multi-Ethnic Seniors 60 10 0 0 0 70Subtotal: 80 10 0 0 0 90

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesBlue-Collar Retirees 10 10 0 0 0 20Second City Seniors 40 20 0 10 10 80

Subtotal: 50 30 0 10 10 100

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Retirees 0 20 0 0 0 20Suburban Seniors 10 30 0 0 0 40

Subtotal: 10 50 0 0 0 60






Orleans Orleans Orleans Balance of OrleansParish Parishes Parish Louisiana US Counties Total


Metropolitan CitiesInner-City Families 130 10 0 0 10 150

Single-Parent Families 90 0 0 0 10 100Subtotal: 220 10 0 0 20 250

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesIn-Town Families 60 40 10 10 20 140

Subtotal: 60 40 10 10 20 140

Metropolitan SuburbsWorking-Class Families 0 20 0 0 0 20

Subtotal: 0 20 0 0 0 20


Small Cities/Satellite CitiesBlue-Collar Singles 50 10 0 10 10 80

Soul City Singles 50 30 10 10 10 110Subtotal: 100 40 10 20 20 190

Metropolitan SuburbsWorking-Class Singles 60 110 10 10 20 210

Subtotal: 60 110 10 10 20 210



Tenure (Renter/Buyer) ProfileHouseholds With The Potential

To Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each YearHouseholds In Groups With Median Incomes Above $50,000


. . . . . Rental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Household Type/ Below Above Entry- First-Time Move-Up/ Move-

Geographic Designation Median Median Level Move-Up Lateral Down Total

Empty Nesters& Retirees 0 30 0 0 60 20 110

Metropolitan Cities 0 20 0 0 40 10 70Small Cities/Satellite Cities 0 10 0 0 20 10 40

Metropolitan Suburbs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Town & Country/Exurbs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Traditional &Non-Traditional Families 30 90 40 130 50 60 400



YoungerSingles & Couples 110 320 80 120 140 30 800



Total: 140 440 120 250 250 110 1,310Percent: 10.7% 33.6% 9.2% 19.1% 19.1% 8.4% 100.0%






. . . . . Rental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Empty Nesters Below Above Entry- First-Time Move-Up/ Move-

& Retirees Median Median Level Move-Up Lateral Down Total

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 0 0 20 10 40

Cosmopolitan Couples 0 0 0 0 10 0 10Multi-Ethnic Retirees 0 10 0 0 10 0 20

Subtotal: 0 20 0 0 40 10 70

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesMiddle-Class Move-Downs 0 10 0 0 20 10 40

Subtotal: 0 10 0 0 20 10 40

Total: 0 30 0 0 60 20 110Percent: 0.0% 27.3% 0.0% 0.0% 54.5% 18.2% 100.0%






. . . . . Rental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Traditional & Below Above Entry- First-Time Move-Up/ Move-

Non-Traditional Families Median Median Level Move-Up Lateral Down Total

Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 0 10 10 20 0 10 50

Multi-Cultural Families 10 10 0 10 10 0 40Subtotal: 10 20 10 30 10 10 90

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesUnibox Transferees 0 10 0 20 0 10 40

Multi-Ethnic Families 10 20 10 20 10 10 80Subtotal: 10 30 10 40 10 20 120

Metropolitan SuburbsLate-Nest Suburbanites 0 0 0 10 10 10 30Full-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 20 0 10 50

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 10 30 10 30 20 10 110Subtotal: 10 40 20 60 30 30 190

Total: 30 90 40 130 50 60 400Percent: 7.5% 22.5% 10.0% 32.5% 12.5% 15.0% 100.0%






. . . . . Rental . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ownership . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Younger Below Above Entry- First-Time Move-Up/ Move-

Singles & Couples Median Median Level Move-Up Lateral Down Total

Metropolitan Citiese-Types 0 30 10 10 10 0 60

New Bohemians 20 50 10 10 10 10 110Urban Achievers 50 100 10 20 10 10 200

Subtotal: 70 180 30 40 30 20 370

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesThe VIPs 0 10 10 10 20 0 50

Twentysomethings 10 30 10 10 10 0 70Small-City Singles 20 30 10 10 10 0 80

Subtotal: 30 70 30 30 40 0 200

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 0 10 0 10 10 0 30

Fast-Track Professionals 0 10 0 0 10 0 20Upscale Suburban Couples 0 10 0 10 10 0 30

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 0 0 10 0 20Suburban Achievers 10 30 20 30 30 10 130

Subtotal: 10 70 20 50 70 10 230

Total: 110 320 80 120 140 30 800Percent: 13.8% 40.0% 10.0% 15.0% 17.5% 3.8% 100.0%



New Unit Purchase Propensity By Housing TypeHouseholds With The Potential



Multi- Single-. . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Household Type/ . . Attached . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geographic Designation All Ranges All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range Total







Younger Singles & Couples 190 80 60 20 20 370



Total: 240 170 170 90 60 730Percent: 32.9% 23.3% 23.3% 12.3% 8.2% 100.0%







Empty Nesters . . Attached . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . . & Retirees All Ranges All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range Total

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 10 10 10 0 0 30

Cosmopolitan Couples 0 0 10 0 0 10Multi-Ethnic Retirees 0 0 10 0 0 10

Subtotal: 10 10 30 0 0 50

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesMiddle-Class Move-Downs 10 10 10 0 0 30

Subtotal: 10 10 10 0 0 30

Total: 20 20 40 0 0 80Percent: 25.0% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%







Traditional & . . Attached . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . .Non-Traditional Families All Ranges All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range Total

Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 10 10 0 10 10 40

Multi-Cultural Families 0 10 10 0 0 20Subtotal: 10 20 10 10 10 60

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesUnibox Transferees 0 10 0 10 10 30

Multi-Ethnic Families 10 10 20 10 0 50Subtotal: 10 20 20 20 10 80

Metropolitan SuburbsLate-Nest Suburbanites 0 0 10 10 10 30Full-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 10 10 10 40

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 10 20 20 20 0 70Subtotal: 10 30 40 40 20 140

Total: 30 70 70 70 40 280Percent: 10.7% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 14.3% 100.0%







Younger . . Attached . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Detached . . . . . . . . . . . . .Singles & Couples All Ranges All Ranges Low-Range Mid-Range High-Range Total

Metropolitan Citiese-Types 20 10 0 0 0 30

New Bohemians 30 10 0 0 0 40Urban Achievers 40 10 0 0 0 50

Subtotal: 90 30 0 0 0 120

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesThe VIPs 10 10 0 10 10 40

Twentysomethings 10 10 10 0 0 30Small-City Singles 10 10 10 0 0 30

Subtotal: 30 30 20 10 10 100

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 0 0 0 10 10 20

Fast-Track Professionals 0 0 10 0 0 10Upscale Suburban Couples 10 0 10 0 0 20

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 0 10 0 0 10Suburban Achievers 60 20 10 0 0 90

Subtotal: 70 20 40 10 10 150

Total: 190 80 60 20 20 370Percent: 51.4% 21.6% 16.2% 5.4% 5.4% 100.0%


Appendix Three, Table 3 Page 1 of 4

Tenure (Renter/Owner) ProfileHouseholds With The Potential

To Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each YearHousehold Groups With Median Incomes Below $50,000


------- Rental ------- ----------------- Ownership --------------------. . . . . . . . Multi-Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Single-Family . . . . . . . .Below All All Below

Household Type/ Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateGeographic Area Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total







YoungerSingles & Couples 190 120 50 20 20 0 400

Small Cities/Satellite Cities 100 50 20 10 10 0 190Metropolitan Suburbs 90 70 30 10 10 0 210

Town & Country/Exurbs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total: 480 280 130 80 90 0 1,060Percent: 45.3% 26.4% 12.3% 7.5% 8.5% 0.0% 100.0%

SOURCE: Claritas, Inc.; Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc.






Empty Nesters Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-Rate& Retirees Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Metropolitan CitiesDowntown Retirees 10 0 0 10 0 0 20

Multi-Ethnic Seniors 40 20 10 0 0 0 70Subtotal: 50 20 10 10 0 0 90

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesBlue-Collar Retirees 0 10 0 0 10 0 20Second City Seniors 40 20 10 0 10 0 80

Subtotal: 40 30 10 0 20 0 100

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Retirees 0 0 0 10 10 0 20Suburban Seniors 10 10 10 0 10 0 40

Subtotal: 10 10 10 10 20 0 60

Total: 100 60 30 0 20 40 0 250Percent: 40.0% 24.0% 12.0% 8.0% 16.0% 0.0% 100.0%







Traditional & Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateNon-Traditional Families Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Metropolitan CitiesInner-City Families 80 40 20 10 0 0 150

Single-Parent Families 60 20 10 10 0 0 100Subtotal: 140 60 30 20 0 0 250

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesIn-Town Families 50 30 20 20 20 0 140

Subtotal: 50 30 20 20 20 0 140

Metropolitan SuburbsWorking-Class Families 0 10 0 0 10 0 20

Subtotal: 0 10 0 0 10 0 20

Total: 190 100 50 0 40 30 0 410Percent: 46.3% 24.4% 12.2% 9.8% 7.3% 0.0% 100.0%







Younger Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateSingles & Couples Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesBlue-Collar Singles 30 20 10 10 10 0 80

Soul City Singles 70 30 10 0 0 0 110Subtotal: 100 50 20 10 10 0 190

Metropolitan SuburbsWorking-Class Singles 90 70 30 10 10 0 210

Subtotal: 90 70 30 10 10 0 210

Total: 190 120 50 20 20 0 400Percent: 47.5% 30.0% 12.5% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 100.0%



Draw Area Households With The PotentialTo Move To The New Orleans East Development Area Each Year



Household Type/ Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateGeographic Area Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total







YoungerSingles & Couples 300 440 240 100 50 70 1,200



Total: 620 720 370 250 190 220 2,370Percent: 26.2% 30.4% 15.6% 10.5% 8.0% 9.3% 100.0%

Percent Rental: 56.5%Percent Ownership: 43.5%

Percent Multi-Family/Single-Family Attached: 82.7%Percent Single-Family Detached: 17.3%






Empty Nesters Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-Rate& Retirees Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Metropolitan CitiesUrban Establishment 0 10 10 10 0 10 40

Cosmopolitan Couples 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10Multi-Ethnic Retirees 0 10 0 0 0 10 0 20

Downtown Retirees 10 0 0 10 0 0 20Multi-Ethnic Seniors 40 20 10 0 0 0 70

50 40 20 20 10 20 160Small Cities/Satellite Cities

Middle-Class Move-Downs 0 10 10 10 0 10 40Blue-Collar Retirees 0 10 0 0 10 0 20Second City Seniors 40 20 10 0 10 0 80

Subtotal: 40 40 20 10 20 10 140

Metropolitan SuburbsSuburban Retirees 0 0 0 10 10 0 20Suburban Seniors 10 10 10 0 10 0 40

Subtotal: 10 10 10 10 20 0 60

Total: 100 90 50 0 40 50 30 360Percent: 27.8% 25.0% 13.9% 11.1% 13.9% 8.3% 100.0%






Traditional & Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateNon-Traditional Families Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Metropolitan CitiesFull-Nest Urbanites 0 10 10 10 0 20 50

Multi-Cultural Families 10 10 0 10 10 0 40Inner-City Families 80 40 20 10 0 0 150

Single-Parent Families 60 20 10 10 0 0 100Subtotal: 150 80 40 40 10 20 340

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesUnibox Transferees 0 10 0 10 0 20 40

Multi-Ethnic Families 10 20 10 10 10 20 80In-Town Families 50 30 20 20 20 0 140

Subtotal: 60 60 30 40 30 40 260

Metropolitan SuburbsLate-Nest Suburbanites 0 0 0 0 10 20 30Full-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 0 10 10 20 50

Blue-Collar Button-Downs 10 30 10 20 20 20 110Working-Class Families 0 10 0 0 10 0 20

Subtotal: 10 50 10 30 50 60 210

Total: 220 190 80 0 110 90 120 810Percent: 27.2% 23.5% 9.9% 13.6% 11.1% 14.8% 100.0%






Younger Market Market Ranges Ranges Market-Rate Market-RateSingles & Couples Rate Apt. Rate Apt. Apt. Attached Detached Detached Total

Metropolitan Citiese-Types 0 30 20 10 0 0 60

New Bohemians 20 50 30 10 0 0 110Urban Achievers 50 100 40 10 0 0 200

Subtotal: 70 180 90 30 0 0 370

Small Cities/Satellite CitiesThe VIPs 0 10 10 10 0 20 50

Twentysomethings 10 30 10 10 10 0 70Small-City Singles 20 30 10 10 10 0 80

Blue-Collar Singles 30 20 10 10 10 0 80Soul City Singles 70 30 10 0 0 0 110

Subtotal: 130 120 50 40 30 20 390

Metropolitan SuburbsThe Entrepreneurs 0 10 0 0 0 20 30

Fast-Track Professionals 0 10 0 0 0 10 20Upscale Suburban Couples 0 10 10 0 0 10 30

No-Nest Suburbanites 0 10 0 0 0 10 20Suburban Achievers 10 30 60 20 10 0 130

Working-Class Singles 90 70 30 10 10 0 210100 140 100 30 20 50 440

Total: 300 440 240 100 50 70 1,200Percent: 25.0% 36.7% 20.0% 8.3% 4.2% 5.8% 0.0%



[email protected] • www.ZVA.cc


ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS—

Every effort has been made to insure the accuracy of the data contained within this analysis.

Demographic and economic estimates and projections have been obtained from government

agencies at the national, state, and county levels. Market information has been obtained from

sources presumed to be reliable, including developers, owners, and/or sales agents. However,

this information cannot be warranted by Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. While the

methodology employed in this analysis allows for a margin of error in base data, it is assumed

that the market data and government estimates and projections are substantially accurate.

Absorption scenarios are based upon the assumption that a normal economic environment will

prevail in a relatively steady state during development of the subject property. Absorption

paces are likely to be slower during recessionary periods and faster during periods of recovery

and high growth. Absorption scenarios are also predicated on the assumption that the product

recommendations will be implemented generally as outlined in this report and that the

developer will apply high-caliber design, construction, marketing, and management techniques

to the development of the property.

Recommendations are subject to compliance with all applicable regulations. Relevant

accounting, tax, and legal matters should be substantiated by appropriate counsel.

o


908 735-6336www.ZVA.cc • [email protected]


RIGHTS AND STUDY OWNERSHIP—

Zimmerman/Volk Associates, Inc. retains all rights, title and interest in the methodology and

target market descriptions contained within this study. The specific findings of the analysis are

the property of the client and can be distributed at the client’s discretion.

o

ZIMMERMAN/VOLK ASSOCIATES, INC., 2009

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A RESIDENTIAL MARKET POTENTIAL - NOLA