A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database

Chen Ying (cycass@163bj.com)Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD),

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006

OutlineOverview of Emissions Scenarios Database

Analysis on Reference Scenarios

Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios

Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged

I. Overview of Emission Scenarios Database

StructureSources: 256Scenarios: 734Regions:

Variables:

Results: 1990-2100,

every 10 years

93668 records in total

China in the Countries Groupings

ChinaCPA= China+HK and other 5 countriesASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19),

34 countries and regions

China ASIAP

CPA

China is 90%-95% of CPA, 50%-60% of

ASIAP

Models related to China 13 models developed since 1998

China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99,

CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98

ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001

AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN

Categories of models Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN

Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and MESSAGE

Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM

Scenarios developed: 85 reference + 111 policy

II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios

85 reference scenarios related to ChinaChina: 3 developed with 3 models

CPA: 5 developed with 2 models

ASIAP: 40 of SRES standardized and 37 of

pSRES without standardization

0. 0

0. 5

1. 0

1. 5

2. 0

2. 5

3. 0

3. 5

4. 0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2

emis

sion

s (G

TC/y

r)

AI M/ EMF16 RI CE99 SGM99

Reference Scenarios for China

Reference Scenarios for CPA and China/0.95

0. 0

1. 0

2. 0

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2

emis

sion

s (G

TC/y

r)

DNE21/ 98 I I ASA/ WEC98-A1 I I ASA/ WEC98-A2I I ASA/ WEC98-A3 I I ASA/ WEC98-B SGM99RI CE99 AI M/ EMF16

A2-5.2

A3-0.6

SGM99

RICE99& AIM/EMF16

A1

B

Reference Scenarios for ASIAP

(6 Markers from SRES)

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10. 0

12. 0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

CO2

Emis

sion

s (G

TC/y

r)

A1 A2 B1 A1T A1FI B2

A2-10.74

B1-0.93

CPA/0.5

What makes the differences?

CPAIIASA/WEC98 DNE21/98

1990 A1 A2 A3 B 1990 Ref

Pop 1242 －202020502100

171419842099

171419842099

171419842099

171419842099

－

GDP 474 －202020502100

38521387144593

38521387144593

38521387144593

20386660

26933－

PE 40 23

202020502100

106188301

106188304

105181297

88149249

56102175

Coal 23 17

202020502100

625428

69136212

60517

5070

146

325060

Assumptions of Driving Forces for

6 SRES Markers1990 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

World population 5.3

202020502100

7.68.77.1

7.58.77.1

7.68.77.0

8.211.315.1

7.68.77.0

7.69.3

10.4

World GDP

202020502100

53164525

56181529

57187550

4182

243

53136328

51110235

Per capita income ratio (Annex1 to

Non-annex 1)16.1

202020502100

7.52.81.5

6.42.81.6

6.22.81.6

9.46.64.2

8.43.61.8

7.74.03.0

Which Gives the Right Prediction?

Possible sources for actual data

Resources GHGs Time

WDI 2004(WB)most countries till

2000

CAIT(WRI), launched in 2003

CO2 from energy, industrial production, land use changes, (some

available but highly uncertain)Non-CO2

1960-2000,CO2 till 2002

IEA StatisticsCO2 emissions from fossil fuel

combustion 1971-2001

EIA (US), updated on July 11, 2005

CO2 from energy activities 1980-2003

Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data (CPA

and China/0.95)

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1

1. 2

1. 4

1. 6

1. 8

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

DNE21/ 98 I I ASA/ WEC98- A1 I I ASA/ WEC98- A2I I ASA/ WEC98- A3 I I ASA/ WEC98- B act ual dat aAI M/ EMF16 SGM99

Actual data

Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data of

ASIAP

0. 0

0. 5

1. 0

1. 5

2. 0

2. 5

3. 0

3. 5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

A1FI A1T actual data A2 B1 B2 A1B

Standardization1990-2000

Actual data

Modeling Results Tends to Overestimate Growth of

Developing Countries

1990 Actual data 2000 Actual data

World CO2 emissions 7.10 - 7.79 -

World CO2 from energy 5.99 5.84 6.90 6.5

ASIAP 1.15 1.06 1.78 1.58

OECD90 2.83 2.85 3.20 3.20

REF 1.30 1.40 0.91 1.00

ALM 0.72 0.53 1.01 0.74

A Explanation from Driving Forces

ASIAPCO2

1999CO2

2000

GDP1990＝ 10

0

Population1990＝ 100

Energy consumption

1990＝ 100

Actual data 1.06 1.58 191 116 142

AIM/SRES- A1B,

1.15 1.78

180 117 125

ASF/SRES- A2 159 118 155

IMAGE/SRES-B1 194 117 135

MESSAGE/SRES-A1T 180 117 142

MESSAGE/SRES-B2 233 116 139

MiniCAM/SRES- A1FI 218 116 173

III. Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios

111 policy scenarios related to China

103 with stabilization targets from 450-750ppm

China(14): RICE99 and SGM99

CPA( 1): DNE21/98

ASIAP( 88): 72 of pSRES and 16 of pSRES2001 Some scenarios compare different emissions pathways

(WRE ,WGI or MID) with same stabilization targets, or The impacts of ET (no trade, partial trade or trade)

Insights to Stabilization Scenarios

Policy scenarios with different stabilization targets base on same reference

Policy scenarios based on different reference is pursuit of same stabilization targets

Different emissions pathways and the impact of trade conditions

Burden-sharing scheme Other possible information on mitigation costs

More Reductions Required to Achieve Lower Targets

0. 0

1. 0

2. 0

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

A1B A1B-450 A1B-550 A1B-650

Ref

650

550

450

More Reductions Required based on Higher Reference

0. 00

1. 00

2. 00

3. 00

4. 00

5. 00

6. 00

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

RI CE99- ref RI CE99-550DNE21/ 98- ref DNE21/ 98-550

Ref-high

Ref-low

sta-550

Burden-sharing Scheme550ppm, 2050 B2 A1B A1FI

Total reductions required in the world

11.2-9.9=1.3 16.4-10.2=6.2 23.5-10.7=12.8

ASIAP 4.1-3.8=0.3 5.9-3.8=2.1 10.1-3.9=6.2

EFSU 0.2 0.47 1.62

OECD 0.2 1.48 2.31

ROW 0.5 2.15 2.63

ASIAP’s share in the world 23% 34% 49%

ASIAP’s reduction rate 7.3% 36% 61%

Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for Developing

Countries Analysis on the driving forces

550, 2050,

pSRESGDP loss PE decrease

Reduction of Coal use

Coal/PE

B2 -0.4% -0.4% - 18

A1B -1.7% -22.6% -51.5% 15

A1FI -2.9% -31% -87% 8

IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged

Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be fluctuated with high uncertainty.

The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies in developing countries have clear implications on climate change mitigation.

The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need to be clarified.

The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and basic needs.