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A PRACTICAL LOOK AT LEDA PRACTICAL LOOK AT LEDA PRACTICAL LOOK AT LED A PRACTICAL LOOK AT LED TECHNOLOGYTECHNOLOGY
Kevin WillmorthKevin WillmorthLumenique LLCLumenique LLCLumenique, LLCLumenique, LLC
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A Little BackgroundA Little Background
•• In Lighting Since 1980In Lighting Since 1980 Electrical engineering Electrical engineering Interior design and architectural Lighting design consultantg g g Product design and management Marketing and strategic planning Editorial contributor
•• Balance between art and science of lightBalance between art and science of light Believe we make lighting too complex Believe we too often ignore that perception of
light is most powerful dynamiclight is most powerful dynamic
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The SetupThe Setup
•• Energy and LightEnergy and Light•• Adoption and PerceptionAdoption and Perception•• FictionFiction•• About LifeAbout Life•• Metrics in UseMetrics in Use•• Design Integration Design Integration –– DemonstrationDemonstration•• Wrapping it Up Wrapping it Up -- Looking aheadLooking aheadpp g ppp g p gg
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ENERGYENERGY
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Earth vs. LightEarth vs. Light
U.S. Lighting Energy Summary
Sector KWh/Month Number Buildings % Lighting Lighting KWh for Lighting
Residential 920 122,471,071 15% 16,901,007,798
Commercial 6,307 17,172,499 27% 29,242,876,822, , , , , ,
Industrial 110,946 759,604 15% 12,641,253,808
Total 118,173 140,403,174 58,785,138,428
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EmissionsEmissions
79% of electrical 79% of electrical titipower generation power generation
involves combustion involves combustion of a nonof a non--renewable renewable fossilfossil fuel sourcefuel sourcefossilfossil--fuel sourcefuel source
It all looks like cleanIt all looks like cleanIt all looks like clean It all looks like clean electric lighting electric lighting –– in in reality it’s a hybrid reality it’s a hybrid coal/gas/steam coal/gas/steam gglighting infrastructurelighting infrastructure
US Energy Information Administration Data
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Lighting Energy Lighting Energy by Customerby Customer
Global ImplicationsGlobal Implications
The number of buildings worldwide easily exceeds 2.5 Billion making issues of sustainability and conservation critical worldwide
The number of buildings worldwide easily exceeds 2.5 Billion making issues of sustainability and conservation critical worldwide
140+ million bldgs 229+ million bldgs
466+ million buildings 1,200+ million buildings
88+ million bldgs 9+ million bldgs
Do We NEED LEDs?Do We NEED LEDs?
•• T8 Fluorescent LampsT8 Fluorescent LampsExcellent efficacy (100 lm/W) Excellent efficacy (100 lm/W)
Long life and Low cost Limited form factorLimited form factor
•• Induction LampsInduction Lamps Good efficacy and Long lifeGood efficacy and Long life Limited form, expensive
•• CFL and HIDCFL and HID Familiar and simple Limited form factor / optically poor
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What Makes LEDs DifferentWhat Makes LEDs Different
•• Do not use gases, vapors, or heated metal Do not use gases, vapors, or heated metal to make lightto make light Create light from direct conversion of electrons
to photons within a solid semiconductor materialto photons within a solid semiconductor material (thus the term solid state)
•• No UV, no heat in the light pathNo UV, no heat in the light pathNo UV, no heat in the light pathNo UV, no heat in the light path Heat is extracted from the substrate, not thrown
out along with light emission•• Not affected by coldNot affected by cold Actually work better when cold
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What Makes LEDs DifferentWhat Makes LEDs Different
•• Are easily controlled and regulatedAre easily controlled and regulated Integrate easily with electronic controls
•• Are small and intenseAre small and intense Will fit into small spaces Small source increases optical efficiency
Di ti l t i ffi i f ti Directional nature increases efficiency of optics•• Are very long livedAre very long lived
No filaments to break or gases to break down No filaments to break or gases to break down•• Converts more electrons to photons Converts more electrons to photons
than any other technologythan any other technologythan any other technologythan any other technology11
Realistic LED Energy Saving PotentialRealistic LED Energy Saving Potential
U.S. Lighting Energy Summary – Savings Potential
Sector Number Buildings Lighting KWh for Lighting
Potential SavingsAvailable Savings in KWH
Residential 122,471,071 16,901,007,798 90% 15,210,907,018
Commercial 17,172,499 29,242,876,822 60% 17,545,726,093Commercial 17,172,499 29,242,876,822 60% 17,545,726,093
Industrial 759,604 12,641,253,808 50% 6,320,626,904
TotalTotal 140,403,174140,403,174 58,785,138,42858,785,138,428 35%35% 39,077,260,01539,077,260,015
The savings potential from application of The savings potential from application of lighting with higher efficiency is a large and lighting with higher efficiency is a large and
attractive market opportunity attractive market opportunity
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MercuryMercury
Reduction is needed in both atmospheric mercury and
Reduction is needed in both atmospheric mercury and mercury from lamp wastemercury from lamp waste
•• Converting all 122M Converting all 122M homes would add more homes would add more than 500 millionthan 500 million
Hg (tons) through 2020 – using EPA mandated reductions
than 500 million than 500 million fluorescent lamps into the fluorescent lamps into the waste stream each yearwaste stream each year
Derived from 2000 EPA Data and EIA Energy Use data, utilizing the reduction schedule established by the Clean Air Interstate Rule (2007) Phase I and II, and the EPA Clean Air Mercury Rule (2005) Phase III, setting combined limits of 38 tons by 2010 and 15 tons by 2018 from 49 tons produced in 2000
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Secondary Lamp Replacement ImpactSecondary Lamp Replacement Impact•• Production consumptionProduction consumption
Need for continuous stream of replacements, consumes energy and produces additional wasteand produces additional waste
•• PackagingPackaging Environmental impact of continuous stream of paper and plastic
packaging productiong g Waste from discarded packaging, cartons, master cartons, etc.
•• TransportationTransportation Movement of raw materials for production and delivery
•• StorageStorage Facility energy consumption Facility construction and maintenance
The longer the product’s service life the lower theservice life, the lower the
impact from secondary supporting processes.
HoweverHowever
•• This assumes that SSL products:This assumes that SSL products: Present no hazardous waste (lead in electronics) Do not introduce proportionally more waste at EOL
Complete luminaire disposal vs lamp module replacement or• Complete luminaire disposal vs. lamp module replacement or rebuilding
Are actively recycled• Heat sinks – aluminum is a particularly expensive material to
create new
Produce the longevity promisedProduce the longevity promised Are applied widely enough to make a real impact
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ADOPTION ANDADOPTION ANDADOPTION AND ADOPTION AND PERCEPTIONPERCEPTION
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Perception of Pain in AdoptionPerception of Pain in Adoption
If the customer is indifferent If the customer is indifferent –– no crisis perception no crisis perception –– and there is and there is a high perceived pain of adoption a high perceived pain of adoption –– costs, time, effort costs, time, effort –– no no h illh illchange will occur.change will occur.
If there is a real perceived crisis, and little pain of adoption, If there is a real perceived crisis, and little pain of adoption, the market will change quicklythe market will change quicklythe market will change quickly.the market will change quickly.
Pip CoburnThe Change Function
In general terms, there is still little current In general terms, there is still little current perception perception of crisisof crisis in the majorit of the pop lation Energin the majorit of the pop lation Energof crisis of crisis in the majority of the population. Energy in the majority of the population. Energy costs are too low and environmental issues to costs are too low and environmental issues to fractured and controversial to gain real traction.fractured and controversial to gain real traction.
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Are Energy Costs Too Low?Are Energy Costs Too Low?
When energy costs reach above $0.17When energy costs reach above $0.17--20 /kWh20 /kWhTh ti f d d i i i i ifi tlTh ti f d d i i i i ifi tlThe perception of need and crisis increases significantlyThe perception of need and crisis increases significantly(Europe and Mideast as examples)(Europe and Mideast as examples)
FICTIONSFICTIONS
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FictionsFictions
•• LEDs last foreverLEDs last forever LED life is highly dependant on ambientLED life is highly dependant on ambient
temperature, LEDs used, thermal management, and electronic driver design. There are no g arantees of long lifeguarantees of long life
LED drivers and electronics are the most common failure pointsp
•• LEDs produce no heatLEDs produce no heat LEDs generate all of their heat out the back of g
the devices employed Thermal management is more challenging than
with conventional sourceswith conventional sources
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Life and HeatLife and Heat
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51C = 124F
Light and HeatLight and Heat
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51C = 124F
FictionsFictions
•• LEDs produce healthier or purer light than LEDs produce healthier or purer light than conventional lampsconventional lampsconventional lampsconventional lamps LED light can contain a great deal of blue light
some feel may be a source of macular ydegeneration and sleep disorders
LED white light spectrum is better than fl t b tfluorescent, but …
All light sources offer advantages and risks. Make no assumptions about any source based only on marketing literature and promises.y y g p
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Daylight Perfect?Daylight Perfect?
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Incandescent Color Perfect?Incandescent Color Perfect?
And much, hmuch
more as heat we cannot see
Source: GE
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Color of Fluorescent Color of Fluorescent –– NOT PerfectNOT Perfect3500K3000K
4100K 5000K
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Color of White LED Color of White LED –– Perfect?Perfect?Some concern expressed over 405-450nm spikeMelatonin suppression and chronodisruption being studied
Weakness in redredpoor color performance
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FictionsFictions
•• LEDs are more environmentally sustainableLEDs are more environmentally sustainable Only when applied properly – replacing entire
luminaires at end of life may not be the best solution
LEDs require a wide range of man-made components to produce, which are not
i t ll t lenvironmentally neutral• The energy saved generally offsets negative impact,
as long as products are effectively applied• NGAN demands large volume of Ammonia to grow
LED drivers and electronic components may contain lead (import lamps particularly poor)contain lead (import lamps particularly poor)
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LEDs Won’t Repeat the CFL ErrorsLEDs Won’t Repeat the CFL Errors
Everything Everything that killed the that killed the CFL with CFL with consumers isconsumers isconsumers is consumers is being repeated being repeated with LEDs with LEDs –– by by the same the same playersplayers
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ABOUT LIFEABOUT LIFE
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Service Life vs. Rated LifeService Life vs. Rated Life
•• Conventional lamps are rated to 50% lamp Conventional lamps are rated to 50% lamp failuresfailuresfailuresfailures
•• LEDs generally don’t fail, they fade away LEDs generally don’t fail, they fade away ––life is based on lumen depreciation over life is based on lumen depreciation over pptimetime ASSIST (Alliance for Solid-State Illumination
Systems and technologies) recommends• L70 = hours to 70% initial brightness (commercial)• L50 = hours to 50% (residential)L50 hours to 50% (residential)
•• Electronics components rated using MTBFElectronics components rated using MTBF Calculated time expected to failurep
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End of Service Life End of Service Life –– Failure ModeFailure Mode
100%T8 XL Fl t
70%
T8 XL Fluorescent
HID70%
50%
LED
50%
30%
0 hrs 25,000 hrs 50,000 hrs 75,000+ hrs
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Lamp Mortality vs. Lumen MortalityLamp Mortality vs. Lumen Mortality
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ComparisonComparison
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End of Service Life End of Service Life –– Light LossLight Loss
100%
70%
HID
70%
50%
T8 XL Fluorescent LED
50%
30%
0 hrs 25,000 hrs 50,000 hrs 75,000+ hrs
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What’s That Have to do With Energy?What’s That Have to do With Energy?
•• Light losses must be compensated for Light losses must be compensated for More initial energy used to maintain lifetime light
levelsGreater number of lamps/fixtures to maintain Greater number of lamps/fixtures to maintain
More waste from electrical system losses More expenseMore expense
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METRICS IN USEMETRICS IN USE
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Relative vs. Absolute PhotometryRelative vs. Absolute Photometry
•• Conventional luminaire test data uses a Conventional luminaire test data uses a reference source of known outputreference source of known output Actual photometric data is pro-rated to a standard
lamp lumen valuelamp lumen value Does not communicate actual results of the test,
only RELATIVE performance to lamp standardy p p•• LEDs performance results are reported directlyLEDs performance results are reported directly No pro-rating to a standard source, data is
ABSOLUTE data from testing of the product alone Reflects full impact of thermal, optics, and
electronicselectronics
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Pitfalls Pitfalls –– All approaches are flawedAll approaches are flawed
•• Relative photometry can be misleading if Relative photometry can be misleading if actual lamp lumens in use are not knownactual lamp lumens in use are not known Few actual manufactured lamps produce
exactly the same light as the stated or referenceexactly the same light as the stated or reference lumens
•• Absolute photometry can be misleading, asAbsolute photometry can be misleading, asAbsolute photometry can be misleading, as Absolute photometry can be misleading, as there is no way of knowing whether the there is no way of knowing whether the tested product is representative of actual tested product is representative of actual production productsproduction products
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SSL Test Standards ProgressSSL Test Standards Progress
•• LMLM--8080 Test standard for lumen depreciation of LED sources – 6,000hr period Does not indicate life Standard for extrapolating life of LEDs is incomplete (IES TM-21) LED service life is a composite of LED and luminiare design, so LM-80
data is meaningless alone
•• LMLM--7979 Test standard for SSL luminaires using absolute photometry vs. relative g p y
photometry for conventional Reflects only the performance of the test sample, may not represent
production products
•• Energy StarEnergy Star Under EPA now. New SSL standards in place Excellent guide for optimum performance specsg p p p
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Lighting Facts LabelingLighting Facts Labeling
“A l i i f t h t k th Li hti F t Pl d“A l i i f t h t k th Li hti F t Pl d“A luminaire manufacturer who takes the Lighting Facts Pledge “A luminaire manufacturer who takes the Lighting Facts Pledge agrees to accurately report and disclose LED product agrees to accurately report and disclose LED product performance based on industry standardized testing, in an effort performance based on industry standardized testing, in an effort to continually improve LED product quality.”to continually improve LED product quality.”y p p q yy p p q y
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DEMONSTRATION BEYOND DEMONSTRATION BEYOND SIMPLE ENERGY METRICSSIMPLE ENERGY METRICSSIMPLE ENERGY METRICSSIMPLE ENERGY METRICS
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LED Efficacy AdvancementLED Efficacy Advancement
Lumens Per WattWithin Normal Product Environment
LEDs are IN THE ZONELEDs are IN THE ZONE
2011
LED 4k White Light Packageto 185lm/W
200
150
2
Metal Halide to 120lm/WLinear Fluorescent to 110lm/W
150
100 C t Fl t
Halogen to 49 lm/W
100
50
Compact Fluorescentto 95 lm/W85
0
Incandescent to 35 lm/W
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
LED Device Cost RoadmapLED Device Cost Roadmap
2011
Source: Multi-Year program plan, SSL R&D, US D.O.E, prepared by Navigant consulting
The LED Market The LED Market -- Haitz’s LegendHaitz’s Legend
2011
Demonstration ProjectDemonstration Project
•• CFL Home designed by lighting showroomCFL Home designed by lighting showroomf Luminaires selected from showroom sources
Use of GU24 CFL and linear fluorescent No lighting calculation completed during design No lighting calculation completed during design
process 2.1 Watts per square foot total lightingp q g g
•• LED Home design LED Home design –– new approachnew approach Design specification approach 120VAC LEDs
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Concept Study Concept Study –– Simulated ResultSimulated Result
6 Lights with minimal control = 72W72W 10 Lights with optimum control = 40W40W
Energy Reduction = 48%48%
•• Control = Lower Energy Use + Higher Control = Lower Energy Use + Higher Q lit l l t ti lQ lit l l t ti l
Energy Reduction = 48%48%
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Quality + lower glare potentialQuality + lower glare potential
A Calculated ApproachA Calculated Approach
Room/Area Min FcRecommended *
Calculated Fc Applied Note
Establishing Optimum Light LevelsEstablishing Optimum Light Levels
Recommended AppliedLiving spaces 5 3 Does not include portableDining Room 10 10 27+Fc at table surfaceOffice 20 12 Does not include portable task Laundry 20 15Laundry 20 15Garage 5 5Bedrooms 5 2 Does not include portable taskKitchen 20 40 Counter top
* Source IESNA
Utilized illuminance Utilized illuminance rendering and numeric rendering and numeric
calculations to visualize andcalculations to visualize and
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calculations to visualize and calculations to visualize and optimize lightness patterningoptimize lightness patterning
Dining Room Study ExampleDining Room Study Example
Computer Rendering Actual Finished SpaceComputer Rendering Actual Finished Space
Renderings provided reasonably accurate and useful Renderings provided reasonably accurate and useful information for fine tuning of designsinformation for fine tuning of designs
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information for fine tuning of designsinformation for fine tuning of designs
Dining Room Final ComparisonDining Room Final Comparison
CFL SpaceCFL SpaceMixed CFL sources = Mixed CFL sources = 192W192W14 Fc @ dining table
LED SpaceLED Space19 Lights @4W = 76W76W38Fc38Fc @ dining table
Energy Reduction = 60%60%
•• More drama more task light less glareMore drama more task light less glare
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•• More drama, more task light, less glareMore drama, more task light, less glare
Kitchen ComparisonKitchen Comparison
CFL SpaceCFL SpaceMixed CFL sources = Mixed CFL sources = 318W318W24 Fc @ counter top
LED SpaceLED Space21 Lights @4W = 84W84W49Fc49Fc @ counter top
Energy Reduction = 73%73%
•• Improved appearance and color, more taskImproved appearance and color, more task
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Improved appearance and color, more task Improved appearance and color, more task light, and less glarelight, and less glare
Living Room ComparisonLiving Room Comparison
CFL SpaceCFL Space7 CFL sources = 7 CFL sources = 161W161W
LED SpaceLED Space12 Lights @4W = 48W48W
Energy Reduction = 70%70%
•• More drama more focus on accent wallMore drama more focus on accent wall
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•• More drama, more focus on accent wall, More drama, more focus on accent wall, less glareless glare
Payback Payback –– Composite EffectComposite Effect
Product Initial CostLuminaireLumens / Watts /
EffiWatts/s.f.
C t dCompound
C t
Annual Energy Cost Payback
P i dlm/$ Efficacy Connected Cost (1800 Hours x 40% Useage)
Period
50W Incandescent Down-light $ 24.00 650 / 27 50 / 13 3.0 Base $497 BaseDown light18W CFL Down-light $ 36.00 700 / 19 20 / 35 1.5 + $708 $ 249 2.9 Years
4W LED Module $ 55 00 135 / 2 5 4 5 / 30 45 + $2 359* $ 74 5 6 YearsDown-light 2010 $ 55.00 135 / 2.5 4.5 / 30 .45 + $2,359* $ 74 5.6 Years
7W LED 7W LED Modular Modular DownDown--light light $ $ 40.0040.00 410 / 410 / 1010 7 / 7 / 5858 .23.23 + 1,179*+ 1,179* $ $ 3838 2.6 Years2.6 YearsTargetTarget
* Includes additional luminaires required to attain new design goals
The composite of increased efficiency and design approach reducesThe composite of increased efficiency and design approach reduces
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The composite of increased efficiency and design approach reduces The composite of increased efficiency and design approach reduces annual energy expense for lighting to a trivial expense.annual energy expense for lighting to a trivial expense.
ReactionsReactions
“The LED home is much more comfortable and “The LED home is much more comfortable and homelike in feel.”homelike in feel.” Architect, builder, and early observers
“I don’t believe the lighting load estimate is “I don’t believe the lighting load estimate is possible, so will need you to divide the lighting possible, so will need you to divide the lighting
th dditi l i it ”th dditi l i it ”over three additional circuits.” over three additional circuits.” Electrical Inspector
“S h i li hti d i i l d i t“S h i li hti d i i l d i t“Sure, having lighting designers involved is great “Sure, having lighting designers involved is great for Bill Gates, but this really isn’t practical in for Bill Gates, but this really isn’t practical in actual residential work.” actual residential work.” ACEEE Summer Study conference
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attendee during Q&A following white paper presentation of the project.
ConclusionsConclusions
•• SSL will eventually become the preferred SSL will eventually become the preferred y py pchoice in residentialchoice in residential
•• The residential market has a large potential for The residential market has a large potential for development and volume of sales development and volume of sales –– by those by those interested in digging ininterested in digging in
N f i i i ll d Not as far out as initially assumed•• Lumens/watt less important than total design Lumens/watt less important than total design
approachapproachapproachapproach Need to redress metrics used in new homes to
avoid perpetuating poor design approaches usingavoid perpetuating poor design approaches using efficient sources
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Other Demonstrations Other Demonstrations
•• DOE Gateway StudiesDOE Gateway Studies Several interior and exterior commercial lighting
applications and retrofits with detailed reports http://www1 eere energy gov/buildings/ssl/gatewaydemos resulthttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/ssl/gatewaydemos_result
s.html
•• CALiPERCALiPER ReportsReports Lamp and luminaire product tests by PNNL for
DOE with detailed reports http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/ssl/caliper.htmlhttp://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/ssl/caliper.html
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WRAPPING IT UPWRAPPING IT UP
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Looking Ahead Looking Ahead –– The GoodThe Good
•• LED performance is improving steadilyLED performance is improving steadily•• Costs are coming down for core technology and Costs are coming down for core technology and
applicable productsapplicable products•• The availability of products is expanding rapidlyThe availability of products is expanding rapidly•• Standards and general knowledge is improving Standards and general knowledge is improving
assessmentsassessments•• Good solutions emerging and performingGood solutions emerging and performing•• The combination of LEDs and controls creates The combination of LEDs and controls creates
enormous potential for energy savingenormous potential for energy saving
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Looking Ahead Looking Ahead –– The BadThe Bad
•• Marketers are still lyingMarketers are still lyingMan fact rers are taking shortc ts to a oidMan fact rers are taking shortc ts to a oid•• Manufacturers are taking shortcuts to avoid Manufacturers are taking shortcuts to avoid costly testing and development workcostly testing and development work
•• Unscrupulous predators are feeding on overUnscrupulous predators are feeding on over•• Unscrupulous predators are feeding on overUnscrupulous predators are feeding on over--enthusiasm and interest with low grade enthusiasm and interest with low grade productsproductsproductsproducts
•• Costs of LED solutions remain many times Costs of LED solutions remain many times higher than other competitive conventional higher than other competitive conventional g pg psolutionssolutions
•• General market remains reluctant to changeGeneral market remains reluctant to changegg
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Looking Ahead Looking Ahead –– The UglyThe Ugly
•• There is a need to redress evaluations based There is a need to redress evaluations based on short term ROI, over long term reductions on short term ROI, over long term reductions in consumptionin consumptionR li i k tit i th USR li i k tit i th US•• Recycling is a very weak entity in the US, Recycling is a very weak entity in the US, creating waste from poor recovery efficacycreating waste from poor recovery efficacyAddi ti tAddi ti t li hti d h lli hti d h l•• Addiction to overAddiction to over--lighting and cheap lamps lighting and cheap lamps slows all progressslows all progress
•• Too much communication from too manyToo much communication from too many•• Too much communication from too many Too much communication from too many sources can cloud information channelssources can cloud information channels
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Looking Ahead Looking Ahead –– The PragmaticThe Pragmatic
•• SSL will continue to grow and take its place as SSL will continue to grow and take its place as f i bl d f l ff i bl d f l fone of many viable and useful sources for one of many viable and useful sources for
illumination designillumination design Will eventually displace most incandescent and Will eventually displace most incandescent and
halogen sources Will eventually displace most CFL class productsy Unlikely to replace ALL technologies
• Will likely be challenged by an emerging new technology before reaching all areasbefore reaching all areas
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Be Careful Out ThereBe Careful Out There
•• Avoid emotionally pursuing LED without Avoid emotionally pursuing LED without careful objective evaluationcareful objective evaluation
•• Be skeptical of claims, but open to Be skeptical of claims, but open to i i lti i ltsurprising resultssurprising results
•• Experimentation and test cases best Experimentation and test cases best h fh fapproach for nowapproach for now
•• Learn the metrics involved and understand Learn the metrics involved and understand the disconnects that existthe disconnects that existthe disconnects that existthe disconnects that exist
•• Communicate real needs to manufacturersCommunicate real needs to manufacturers
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THANK YOUTHANK YOU
Kevin WillmorthKevin WillmorthLumenique LLCLumenique LLCLumenique, LLCLumenique, LLC
Germantown, WI414-241-5124
l iwww.lumenique.com
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