A Personal History in System of Systems B. E. White, Ph.D.

CAU SES: Complexity Are Us Systems Engineering Strategies

18 October 2010

Special Session on System of Systems (SoS)

International Congress on Ultra Modern Telecommunications and Control Systems

1 ICUMT-2010 (Moscow: 18-20 October2010) See Notes Pages for paper

Introduction

Relationships

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Complex System

Enterprise

SoS

System

Foundational Career Phase

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2003-09 Director of systems engineering process office

Learned complexity theory and complex systems

Helped develop CSE principles for our most difficult systems

Tried to convince skeptics that CSE is wave of future in SE

Defining System: collection of elements for purpose greater than sum of parts

System boundary should be discussed in creating shared vision

SoS: collection of systems where each system, with its own purpose, is managed

independently, and is can still operate alone in SoS environment

CSE is mostly about people who cannot necessarily be controlled or even influenced

Political, operational, economic, and technical (POET) aspects must be considered

Monitoring Watch whether system is moving in desired direction; beware of time delays

Help decision makers make better decisions

Management Create conditions for self-adaptation/organization

Do not force behavior from top in typical command-and-control fashion

Forecasting It is impossible to accurately predict future behavior of complex system

Let system design itself and evolve on its own

CSE Principles*

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1. Bring Humility

2. Follow Holism

3. Achieve Balance

4. Utilize Trans-Disciplines

5. Embrace POET

6. Nurture Discussions

7. Pursue Opportunities

8. Formulate Heuristics

9. Foster Trust

10. Create Interactive Environment

11. Stimulate Self-Organization

12. Seek Simple Elements

13. Enforce Layered Architecture __________

* Pm = principles that were applied; m = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples

(Pn) = principles that should have been applied; n = 1, 2, 3, … , will be shown in other career phase examples

Previous Career Phases

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Technical Intelligence*

Satellite Command Link*

Communication to Submarines*

Satellite Band-Pass Limiter

Bandwidth Efficient Modulations*

Satellite Communications Architectures

Satellite Multiple Access

Frequency-Hopping (FH) Radios*

Civil Aeronautical Communication*

Military Global Grid Architecture

Class of Functions Architecture

Future Joint Tactical Data Link (JTDL)*

__________

* Covered explicitly in this talk

Technical Intelligence

(Foreign Technology)

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1962-1965 Lieutenant in U.S. Air Force

Studied CCN-related technologies

Learned to read scientific Russian

Defining Space programs

Large radio astronomy antennas

Ferroelectric memories

Monitoring Briefed senior leaders

Verified Aviation Week!

Management Open societies gave West lead in computer technology

Hiding own work internally slowed progress

Forecasting Relied too much on past observations

Depended on speculations from foreign visits CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P6; Mnt: P2, P7; Mng: (P9, P10) P11; Frc: (P1)

Holism, Discussions, Opportunities, and

Self-Organization but Distrust,

Non-Interactive, and Arrogant

Satellite Command Link

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1965-1967

First “real job”

A. Simple anti-spoof (AS) authentication

B. Pseudorandom sequence to control FH for AJ

Defining

A. 6-stage feedback and feed-forward linear shift registers

B. Timing beacon registers fed nonlinear combinatorial circuit

Monitoring

A. Dropped timing pulse in lab test cause surprising authentication

B. Successfully passed standard randomness tests

Management

A. Briefing to advisory group well received

B. One agency directed us to “close up shop”

Forecasting

A. Never implemented

B. Later learned (via colleague) of similar agency effort CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P3, P12; Mnt: P1, P10 (P11); Mng: (P6, P9); Frc: (P7, P10, P11)

Humility, Holism, Balance, and Simple,

but few Discussions or Opportunities,

and Distrust

Communication to Submarines

(SANGUINE)

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1967-1969

Extremely Low Frequency (ELF); 0.25 bits/second!

Modulation/coding of orthogonal waveforms

Defining

Minimum Shift Keying (MSK) utilized

2n orthogonal sequences constructed for length 2n

Monitoring

First principles of electrical engineering emphasized

Management

Tightly controlling program manager orchestrated progress

Forecasting

Shortfall of systems thinking regarding high-power transmitters

CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P10; Mng: P7, P11; Frc: (P2)

Humility, Opportunities, Interactive, and

Self-Organization but not Holistic

Bandwidth Efficient Modulations

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1975-1976

Close-packing of Frequency Division Multiple Access (FDMA)

uplinks

Low “cross-talk”

Defining

Time-domain shapings of modulation signal

End-to-end performance viewpoint was breakthrough learning

Monitoring

Work greatly supported by outside stakeholder

Management

Overseeing managers delighted with findings

Forecasting

Several journal articles and conference papers resulted

Influenced design and development of important satellite system

CCN Prg: P5: OT – Dfn: P6; Mnt: P9; Mng: P10; Frc: P11

Discussions, Trust, Interactive,

and Self-Organization

FH Radios

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1986-1993

Anti-jam radio systems development

Defining

A. Hop much faster to defeat “repeat” jammer

B. U.S. Air Force – U.S. Army interoperable voice/data radio system

Monitoring

A. Hopping rate sufficient to defeat future technology

A. Foreign sales of radio/jamming equipment potential problem

B. Helping contractor “backfired”

Management

A. “Five power” nation collaboration

A. But U.S. hopping algorithm not shared!

B. Internal “witch hunt” Contract terminated for government convenience!

Forecasting

A/B. Nation states concern

A/B. Terrorists not yet on “radar screen”

CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P2, P6; Mnt: P1, P3; Mng: P9, P10; Frc: (P11)

Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions,

Trust, and Interactive but little Self-Organization

Civil Aeronautical Communication

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1993-1997

A. Very High Frequency (VHF) Digital Link Mode 3 (VDL-3)

B. Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B)

Defining

A. VDL-3: Increased capacity in 25-kHz channels

B. ADS-B: Air crews handle situational awareness

Monitoring

A. International standards developed

A. VDL-3 resisted by Europeans and airlines

B. Sweden advocated VDL Mode 4

Management

A. RTCA contentiousness finally resulted in agreed-to waveform

A. ICAO progress aided by author’s efforts

B. ADS-B participants castigated for creating potential vulnerability

Forecasting

A. Insufficient attention paid to economic issues

B. Universal Access Transceiver (UAT) catching on

CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P3, P6 P9; Mnt: P1, P2; Mng: P10, P11; Frc: (P5: E)

Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions, Trust,

Interactive, and Self-Organization

but too little Economic

Future Joint Tactical Data Link

(JTDL)

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2010

A. Airborne software-defined radio program

B. Aerial network and future JTDL

Defining

A/B. Performance of wireless portion challenging Aircraft have narrow bandwidths and limited data rates

Still no funding for wide-body directive antennas

Monitoring

A. Growing use of layering

B. Multi-cast algorithms needed to mitigate packet loss

B. Work on redirecting en route aircraft to alternative targets

A/B. Prosecution time budgets becoming more realistic

Management

A/B. More portfolio management of “stove-piped” programs

B. Still trying to control network by “brute force”

Forecasting

A. Uncertainties in program viability still exist

B. Self-adaptive and self-organized networks required for uncertain future Perform more processing locally and transmit only what is needed by decision makers

Greater use of Binary eXtensible Markup Language (XML) reduces data by two orders of magnitude

CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1, P2, P3; Mnt: P13; Mng: P6, P7; Frc: P1, P10, P11

Humility, Holism, Balance, Discussions,

Opportunities, Interactive,

Self-Organization, and Layered

Summary

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CSE Principles applied to each aspect of CCN projects

Refer to Table 1 (next chart) and each Pn, where n is nth principle

that applied. Those that should have applied and did not, is shown in parentheses and

in red, as (Pn)

In addition, every row of Table 1 is characterized by the P5 POET factors

Each short phrase in table provides essence of paper’s discussion for that

table cell

No general trend of CSE Principles emerges Only two projects escaped CSE Principles that should have been applied,

viz., Bandwidth Efficient Modulations, and Future JTDL

Author remembers first of these as time of creative career recovery

Recent experience bodes well in developing and implementing future self-

adaptive and self-organizing networks

Principle 12 should play key role in future

Conclusion (Table 1)

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CCN Program Defining Monitoring Management Forecasting

Technical

Intelligence

P5: POET

Politically

dominated but with

special topics P6

Internally processed

intelligence vs. open

literature data P2,P7

Dearth of

information sharing

(P9, P10) P11

Historical

projections and (P1)

information tidbits

Satellite Command

Link P5: POT

Innovative designs

P2, P3, P12

Emergent property

uncovered in testing

P1, P10 (P11)

Inter-organizational

“squabble”

(P6, P9)

Project was “shut

down”

(P7, P10, P11)

SANGUINE

P5: POT

Exploratory analysis

and synthesis

P1

Electrical

engineering

fundamentals P10

Lean with tight

control

P7, P11

Failure to foresee

public repercussions

(P2)

Satellite Band-Pass

Limiter

P5: POT

Exploratory analysis

P1, (P2)

Self-monitoring

through literature

P7

Non-existent

(P4)

Only factor-of-two

gain in performance

P10

Bandwidth Efficient

Modulations

P5: OT

Time-domain

shaping, analysis,

and simulation P6

Considerable

outside interest P9

motivated the work

Engaged oversight

and encouragement

P10

Results influenced

future satellite P11

system development

Satcom

Architectures

P5: POET

Two purposeful

architectures for P1

three user segments

High-level oversight

was prevalent

P5, P7

Politically driven by

control organization

(P3,P6,P9,P10)

EHF cost was large

uncertainty

P2, P5: E

Satellite Multiple

Access

P5: OT

Burgeoning topic

with ample multiple

access schemes

P8

Early adopters were

actively pursuing

techniques

P3, P6

Stakeholders

listened but were

not enthusiastic

(P10)

Networking evolved

along with success

of internet

P7

Frequency-Hopping

(FH) Radios

P5: POT

Hopping rates, FH

algorithms, and

interoperability

P2, P6

FH technology and

foreign military

sales

P1, P3

Autocratic locally

but constructive

progress team-wise

P9, P10

Technology driven

but need diminished

as Wall came down

(P11)

Civil Aeronautical

Communication

P5: POET

Strong negotiations

involving technical

issues P3, P6, P9

Influence of

important

stakeholders P1, P2

Competitive,

collaborative, and

insightful P10, P11

Economic interests

were incompletely

addressed (P5: E)

Military Global

Grid Architecture

P5: POET

Matrix of many

protocols mapped to

architectural layers

P2, P13

Layered

architectures finally

caught on

P6, P7

Informed, practical,

and stimulating

P2, P10, P11

Forward looking

ideas were not sold

to decision makers

(P5: E, P8)

Class of Functions

Architecture

P5: POET

Innovative approach

to more effective

airborne networking

P2, P3

Several duplicative

committees not

talking to each other

(P4, P6)

Inter-organizational

rivalry confused the

roles and missions

(P9)

Network-centric

progress slowed by

command changes

(P10, P11)

Future Joint Tactical

Data Link (JTDL)

P5: POET

Means for increased

data rates are well

understood

P1, P2, P3

Layered C&N

architecture and

experimentation

P13

Program portfolio

and ad hoc

distributed networks

P6 , P7

Self-adaptive and

self-organized

networks

P9, P10 P11

References

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Baldwin, K., et al., “A Model of Systems Engineering in a Systems of Systems Context,” CSER, Redondo Beach, CA, 4-5 April

2008.

Forrester, J.W. “System Dynamics,” circa 1958, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Wright_Forrester.

Francesca, M., “Integrating POET,” 2009 MITRE Innovation Exchange, McLean, VA, 5-7 May 2009,

http://www.mitre.org/news/events/exchange09/9.html,

Gladwell, M., The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, Little, Brown and Company, 2000.

Maier, M. W., “Architecting Principles for Systems-of-Systems,” circa 1996, http://www.infoed.com/Open/PAPERS/systems.htm.

Martin, J. N., “Systems are Imaginary―Systems are Not Real: Some Thoughts on the Nature of Systems Thinking,” INCOSE

International Symposium, San Diego, CA, 24 -28 June 2007.

McCarter, B. G., and B. E. White, “Emergence of SoS, sociocognitive aspects,” chapter three in Systems of Systems

Engineering―Principles and Applications, M. Jamshidi, Ed., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL, 2009, pp. 71-105.

Reiffen, B., and B. E. White, “On Low Crosstalk Data Communication and its Realization by Continuous-Frequency Modulation

Schemes,” IEEE Transactions on Communications, Vol. COM-26, No. 1, January 1978, pp. 131-135.

Sage, A. P., and W. B. Rouse, Handbook of Systems Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition,Wiley, New York, 2009.

Sillitto, H. G., “Design Principles for Ultra-Large-Scale (ULS) Systems,” INCOSE International Symposium, Rosemont, IL, 12-15

July 2010.

Various authors, “ADS-B,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_dependent_surveillance-broadcast.

Various authors, “Manhattan Project,” circa 2005, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project.

Various authors, “Power Laws,” circa 2009, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law.

White, B. E., “On the Construction of N-ary Orthogonal Sequences Under a Continuous-Phase Constraint,” IEEE Transactions

on Information Theory, Vol. IT-19, No. 4, July, 1973, pp. 527-532.

White, B. E., “Systems Engineering Lexicon,” Taylor and Francis Complex and Enterprise Systems Engineering Book Series web

site, 2007, http://www.enterprise-systems-engineering.com/lexicon.htm.

White, B. E., “Complex adaptive systems engineering,” 8th Understanding Complex Systems Symposium, University of Illinois

at Urbana-Champaign, IL. 12-15 May 2008, http://www.howhy.com/ucs2008/schedule.html.

White, B. E., “Complex Adaptive Systems Engineering (CASE),” IEEE Systems Conference, Vancouver, Canada, 24 March 2009.

Some Acronyms

Complex Systems Engineering (CSE)

Computers, Communications, and Networking (CCN)

[U.S. ] Department of Defense (DoD)

Enterprise and/or Complex (E/C)

Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS)

Political, Operational, Economic, and Technical (POET)

System of Systems (SoS)

Systems Engineering (SE)

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Back-Up Charts

Satellite Band-Pass Limiter

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1973-1974

Lessening “capture” of “bent-pipe” satellite capacity

Defining

Signal processing techniques utilizing Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs)

Clipping peaks (etc.) of power spectrum at satellite

Only doubled capacity with asynchronous signals

Monitoring

Utilized literature for specific investigations

Management

Little support once providing initial idea

Had to work off tea cart during first weeks of employment!

Forecasting

Conference paper resulted but technique not implemented

CCN Prg: P5: POT – Dfn: P1(P2); Mnt: P7; Mng: (P4); Frc: (P10)

Humility and Opportunities,

but not Holistic,

Trans-Disciplinary or Interactive,

Satcom Architectures

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1977-1979

Military satellite communication emphasis

Defining

Three-segment (tactical, strategic, and intelligence) satellite system

architecture operating at Ultra High Frequency (UHF), Extremely HF

(EHF), and Super HF (SHF)

Two-segment architecture also debated

Tension between satellite and terminal system program offices (SPOs)

Monitoring

High cost of satellite system programs rated close attention of senior

stakeholders (of DoD, and non-profit and profit contractors)

Management

Politics favored space segment

Solutions that balanced space and terminal segments were elusive

Forecasting

Focus on cost and propagation problems of EHF

CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P1; Mnt: P5, P7; Mng: (P3, P6, P9, P10); Frc: P2, P5: E

Humility, Holistic, Opportunities,

and Economic concern

but Unbalanced, few Discussions,

Distrust, and Non-Interactive

Satellite Multiple Access

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1979-1981 Studied random access (RA) (Aloha and Slotted Aloha), Demand Assignment Multiple

Access (DAMA), FDMA, Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA), and Code Division Multiple

Access (CDMA)

Advocated hybrid depending on traffic loading

Defining Slotted Aloha for lightly loaded channels

DAMA for moderately “ “

TDMA for heavily “ “

CDMA had “near-far” problem if too many users

Monitoring Network control was “hot” new area

Skepticism and reluctant support

Problem employee left after being trained

Management Satellite architecture received more attention

Forecasting With internet, “network control” evolved to “network centricity”

CCN Prg: P5: OT – Dfn: P8; Mnt: P3, P6; Mng: (P10); Frc: P7

Balance, Discussions, Opportunities,

and Heuristics but Non-Interactive

Military Global Grid Architecture

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1999-2002 Rejoined communications/networking division

Project Leader

Defining Alternative layered C&N architectures proposed/analyzed

Monitoring Effort to influence other projects in layered principles

Eventually impacted several programs, e.g., software-defined radio system

Management Focused on practical modus operandi; not research oriented

But encouraged/recognized work leading to increased capabilities

Forecasting Advocated specific performance improvements

But these innovative ideas were undersold

CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P2, P13; Mnt: P6, P7; Mng: P2, P10, P11; Frc: (P5: E, P8)

Holism, Discussions, Opportunities,

Interactive, Self-Organization, and Layered

but not Economic and no Heuristics

Class of Functions Architecture

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2003 Platform-centric approach leads to N2 problem, for large N

Requirements need periodic updating

Defining Wide-body aircraft have similar functions

Net-centricity: just get into and out of network

Monitoring Little interaction among duplicative committees

Programs concentrated on “vertical” integration

Management Lack of intra-organization cooperation/collaboration

Inter-organizational rivalry caused confusion

Forecasting Changes of officer-in-charge hindered long-term progress

CCN Prg: P5: POET – Dfn: P2, P3; Mnt: (P4, P6); Mng: (P9); Frc: (P10, P11)

Holism and Balance, but not Trans-Disciplinary,

few Discussions, Distrust, Non-Interactive,

and no Self-Organization